Libya

[trish]

You'd have to miniaturize those nuclear stations and put one under the hood of every car, truck and train in the world; that or you'd have to put electric motors or electric-gasoline-hybrid engines under all those hoods so you can plug them into the yields of all those new nuclear plants you want to build. We could just go back to the old calorie burning modes of transportation, horse & buggy, donkey and rickshaw.

[theone1982]

Declare victory and leave.

[Faldur]

Declare victory and leave.

The man's a genius.. next issue!

[theone1982]

The man's a genius.. next issue!

Lol! Thank you, thank you! Now if I could just get the Pentagon on speed dial!

[Ben]

Rand Paul has an interesting take on Libya:

[Ben]

[Faldur]

"Involvement to be a matter of days, not weeks." Tell me another story daddy!!

[Ben]

[robertlouis]

Dangerous times. Qadaffi has still to be found, the remnants of his forces are still capable of inflicting a lot of damage, and most of all, the opposition coalition is largely incoherent and fragmented, with western-style liberals and jihadists jockeying for supremacy.

On the other hand, it is worth celebrating the overthrow of yet another tyrant in this remarkable year in the Middle East.

Question: don't they have much oil in Syria? Cynical, moi?

I know that there's the issue of Israel on the doorstep and the absence of any consensus among the Arab states, but hasn't Assad being doing to his people essentially exactly the same as Qadaffi was doing to his before, and after, NATO went in?

[Stavros]

I think you are right to be cautious about the political changes that many would like to see, and the changes that might actually come to pass. If this is a genuine revolution it will be five to ten years before a proper assessment can be made. Libya on one level is a relatively small country and while there is an historical cultural/political issue between Arabs and Berbers (mostly in the West/South West) I don't think this need be overplayed. Libya was in the process of refurbishing its existing oil and gas resources through its deal with British and American companies, and looking for new resources. I see no reason why this should not continue in the short-to-medium term, as the independent companies have the capital to do it while the state will have to focus on re-building, particularly in the east which Qadhafi deliberarely neglected. I don't see oil as part of a conspiracy, apart from heritage tourism there isn't much else in Libya. Thr workforce is well educated, so ultimately it comes down to the ability of different factions to reach an accommodation. Unfortunately the Arabs have an historic inability to agree with each other, on top of which the absence of civil society in Libya has meant that many people don't have much experience of consensus and cooperation across many levels. The two places where Libyans were free to congregate were football matches, and the Mosque, yet even in these places the secret police were known to be listening in. That inexperience and the details of a new constitution could delay agreement -the Islamic bloc will want it to declare Libya an Islamic republic, for example. Libya can absorb many of the rebels into a revamped armed forces if they want a career in the military, the danger that they might branch out into private armies is there, but Libya is not Iraq on this level, although revenge killings have already begun. I once asked a Libyan what would happen if Qadhafi was overthrown and he automatically said 'a bloodbath' because of the bitterness so many people have and the revenge they want for all sorts of crimes.

Qadhafi is undoubtedly finished, its rather like Saddam as I read this morning he might be on a farm someone. Its just a matter of time really -his tribal cohort if they have any sense, will ditch him for the new regime. The fate of Megrahi is the most intriguing; he is also protected by his tribe, which is even bigger than Qadhafi's.

As for Syria, oil is indeed a small resource compared to its Arab neighbours, but accounts for 25% of state revenue, an indication of how badly managed Syria has been. It remains to be see, however, if the gas fields that currently extend from offshore Alexandria through Gaza to Haifa, also lie off the Syrian coast. None of the maritime boundaries to my knowledge have been formally demarcated, at least one gas field straddes Gaza and Israel, and now it seems if you go further out there is the complication of Cyprus making claims -either 'Northern Cyprus' or the real one. These are not Persian Gulf level resources, but of great importance for domestic markets in the Eastern Mediterranean countries.