2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[Stavros]

Just to spice things up in this historic (IMHO) election...

Black Lives Matter IS NOTon board with Kamala Harris:
https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-l...ratic-nominee/

So who is the BLM candidate?

[filghy2]

Black Lives Matter IS NOTon board with Kamala Harris:

I doubt this will hurt her chances when the other side is trying to paint her as too left-wing. Weren't you the guy previously telling us that BLM didn't represent what black people think?

[filghy2]

So who is the BLM candidate?

The statement is actually objecting to the process rather than her being the nominee, though there would be no point in a virtual primary unless there is another candidate.

[filghy2]

I don't see how Trump can win in November unless he both retains his share of the Republican vote and increases his support among Democrat and undecided voters.

The analysis in this blog post shows the problem with your logic.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-146877086

"So far, support for Trump in 2024 is nearly identical to what it was at this time four years ago. The big change is how much less support Biden had this month than he did in July 2020 – nearly 10 points less. We see that difference reflected in the purple lines, which show the doubling of the number of “neither Biden nor Trump” voters who tell pollsters they are either undecided or would choose a third-party candidate. In other words, Trump has not grown his support, but Biden had lost much of his."

[Stavros]

The analysis in this blog post shows the problem with your logic.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-146877086

"So far, support for Trump in 2024 is nearly identical to what it was at this time four years ago. The big change is how much less support Biden had this month than he did in July 2020 – nearly 10 points less. We see that difference reflected in the purple lines, which show the doubling of the number of “neither Biden nor Trump” voters who tell pollsters they are either undecided or would choose a third-party candidate. In other words, Trump has not grown his support, but Biden had lost much of his."

The problem lies with the disclaimer made at the start of the article proving the rest is merely speculation.

What is fact is the existing record of Trump election officials already refusing to certify local elections, suggesting the worst is yet to come, though I don’t believe they have actually changed the vote, but the possibility of the Supreme Court ruling in Trump’s favour cannot be dismissed, even if Harris is a clear winner, as the issue is not what votes that count, but who counts the votes, as Stalin said. It makes for chilling reading because it is not speculation.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/swing-stat...150000944.html

[filghy2]

The problem lies with the disclaimer made at the start of the article proving the rest is merely speculation.

[broncofan]

filghy i'll look more into it. i have to see what that number of undecideds or third party candidate will be in the swing states. Trump support has unfortunately been very sticky and very resistant to large losses of support. There is also some time to see how much more popular than Joe Biden Kamala might be.

disclaimer: i didn't read the blog post but i accept the premise that Trump might win without gaining support. But still a lot in play.

[broncofan]

some of these state polls when biden was still running are grisly looking. 5-10 percent deficits in states that he won in 2020. so there isn't a lot of updated data but I assume Kamala has some ground to make up.

[filghy2]

some of these state polls when biden was still running are grisly looking. 5-10 percent deficits in states that he won in 2020. so there isn't a lot of updated data but I assume Kamala has some ground to make up.

Nate Silver has just published his first take since Biden dropped out (although most of it only for subscribers). It's early days, but it looks like Kamala Harris has closed the gap in the national vote and in some of the battleground states, though there is still some ground to make up to win the Electoral College.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

[Stavros]

Have you nothing to say about the Trump election officials who are only interested in winning, and will use every tactic they can not to certify an election if they lose it, and it doesn’t matter by how many votes? And nothing to say about a Supreme Court that will almost certainly back Trump if the decision ends up with them? Yes, at the moment the figures are not good for Harris, but again, is Trump growing his voter base?

Months to go yet, and now there is even speculation Trump might drop Vance.