2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[Stavros]

The additional problem is that if Biden did step down the party would then be spending time and money on itself when it should be campaigning against Trump. I assume if Biden resigned, say for reasons of ill health, Harris is President and thus offers the country a young President who ought to be able to both mount effective attacks against Trump while promoting a view that stresses the future and optimism, given that Trump is all about the past, retribution and has nothing good to say about the US. This is an opportunity for Harris to make history, but do the Democrats want her as their leader? And is it not the case that whatever her ratings are now, if she was given the chance she would prove to be better than expected?

[filghy2]

The additional problem is that if Biden did step down the party would then be spending time and money on itself when it should be campaigning against Trump.

The problem is that Biden's increasingly obvious shortcomings are detracting from their ability to get across the message about Trump's flaws. They can't compensate for that by putting out more ads or prioritising internal unity.

[Fitzcarraldo]

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/edi...-20240629.html

[filghy2]

Calculations by FiveThirtyEight on electoral college bias. They estimate that Biden needs to win the national vote by at least 2% to win the EC. On the latest polling average he was behind by 1%. So that's 3% to make up, even before the debate debacle.

[Stavros]

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/edi...-20240629.html

Indeed! So little discussion of the stuff Trump came out with -I am still waiting for someone to tell me what he meant when calling Biden the 'Manchurian Candidate'- was Biden brainwashed by the Chinese and is waiting for the 'trigger' moment when he assassinates Trump? They tried making the film twice, and failed both times, not sure third time lucky was the intention behind the FBI 'raid' on Mar-a-Lago, guns locked and loaded, when he claims he was tortured instead.

[Stavros]

Calculations by FiveThirtyEight on electoral college bias. They estimate that Biden needs to win the national vote by at least 2% to win the EC. On the latest polling average he was behind by 1%. So that's 3% to make up, even before the debate debacle.

It is still a question of numbers and if Trump voters declined in the Primaries, they may fall even more if the court -the 11th July I believe- imposes some tough sentencing, say, limiting Trump's movements outside of either New York State or Florida.

A more perverse option is emerging, via Kamala Harris and Jill Biden and some others in effect saying that Joe can 'bounce back' as he appeared to in that rally, though that will only fuel speculation that he has been 'pumped up'.

No, the issue is this: if Biden is elected, will he last 4 more years? He could have a stroke- between now and November or after it- which leaves Harris in pole position to become the first Woman to be President of the USA. She need not worry about a divisive leadership contest if the powers that be stick with Joe, so either now or later the Trump people, if they can think it through may have a new slogan

'Vote Biden, Get Harris'. The irony being for some it is more a hope than a warning.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Changing the ticket is much easier said than done:
https://apnews.com/article/biden-rep...c86cc0bebd3772

[Stavros]

Changing the ticket is much easier said than done:
https://apnews.com/article/biden-rep...c86cc0bebd3772

Not sure, because if Biden resigns citing reasons of ill health, and does it say, tomorrow, Harris becomes President. How this impacts the Convention regulations I don't know, but if Biden is no longer running for office, can the Convention delegates vote for someone else?

[filghy2]

It is still a question of numbers and if Trump voters declined in the Primaries, they may fall even more if the court -the 11th July I believe- imposes some tough sentencing, say, limiting Trump's movements outside of either New York State or Florida.

A more perverse option is emerging, via Kamala Harris and Jill Biden and some others in effect saying that Joe can 'bounce back' as he appeared to in that rally, though that will only fuel speculation that he has been 'pumped up'.

The last election was decided by just under 43,000 votes in 3 states, so it will take only a small shift to change the result. They don't even have to switch to Trump; they could stay home or vote for a third party. I'd say most undecided voters don't like either choice.

I doubt that people will forget what they saw just because he does some prepared stump speeches okay. It's obviously a less challenging task. Most undecided voters won't even know because they don't follow this stuff, though they are unlikely to have missed seeing something about Biden's brain freeze in the debate.

[blackchubby38]

Biden’s family privately criticizes top advisers and pushes for their ouster at Camp David meeting


http://www.politico.com/news/2024/06...ebate-00165970