Thought for the Day

[Nick Danger]

That doesn't seem consistent with what you said previously.

I love that you're a fan of mine, Flighty.

I admit that before his presidency I thought Trump was dirty, in a vulnerable way. I know for a fact he did business with the mob, but that in itself does not mean he's committed a crime. NYC is full of people who got rich off the efforts of mobsters who are now rotting in prison but that doesn't necessarily mean that they themselves did something illegal. Doing business with a criminal is not a crime of itself.

But after watching 4 years of the Democratic Party mustering the full strength of the American media against him, using all the resources at their disposal to bring him down, and failing...well, I have to assume at this point that there is no dirt. Or if there is, Trump has been very smart about it. Here's a good example of what I'm talking about: This is a picture of Donald Trump and well-known mob lawyer Roy Cohn. It carries some implications with it. Cohn represented both Carmine Galante and Anthony Salerno, both NYC family bosses.



So you've got pictures of Trump with a lawyer. But you'll never find a picture of Trump with Galante or Salerno.

I'll tell you something else too, Flighty - I think you're going to have to get used to saying "President Trump" again in 2024.

[broncofan]

If he's prosecuted it is likely to be at the state level (specifically New York). Even if it's appropriate it would not look right to have Biden's Justice department pursue him.

I would not be surprised if he has committed multiple counts of fraud. We'll see. The tax documents are possibly being subpoenaed only to compare disclosures he's made elsewhere. This is a good article on the subject. I'm guessing fraud in his loan documents, but we'll see.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-yor...es-11613241198

[broncofan]

It carries some implications with it. Cohn represented both Carmine Galante and Anthony Salerno, both NYC family bosses.

It carries no implications whatsoever even though Cohn was an awful person. You have someone who has had a half dozen business bankruptcies that ended up screwing creditors, who declares huge losses in his personal tax documents getting loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Even thinking about it from an underwriting standpoint is irritating. I don't put much value in the Trump personal brand but if a bank had to foreclose on a Trump building they own an overpriced, gaudy, illiquid piece of real estate that doesn't have the Trump brand.

Take this statement below. Do you think a bank would want to loan to Trump without a personal guarantee. This doesn't sound like someone who's careful, it sounds like someone who admits they use the corporate form and bankruptcy laws to defraud creditors. If a bank had gone after him a statement like this would almost be a justification to pierce the corporate veil.

"I've used the laws of this country to pare debt. ... We'll have the company. We'll throw it into a chapter. We'll negotiate with the banks. We'll make a fantastic deal. You know, it's like on The Apprentice. It's not personal. It's just business."

[tslvr]

Gas price on 1/19/20 at my local station, 2 bucks a gallon, today the price is $2.73.

[Nick Danger]

It carries no implications whatsoever even though Cohn was an awful person. You have someone who has had a half dozen business bankruptcies that ended up screwing creditors, who declares huge losses in his personal tax documents getting loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Even thinking about it from an underwriting standpoint is irritating. I don't put much value in the Trump personal brand but if a bank had to foreclose on a Trump building they own an overpriced, gaudy, illiquid piece of real estate that doesn't have the Trump brand.

Take this statement below. Do you think a bank would want to loan to Trump without a personal guarantee. This doesn't sound like someone who's careful, it sounds like someone who admits they use the corporate form and bankruptcy laws to defraud creditors. If a bank had gone after him a statement like this would almost be a justification to pierce the corporate veil.

"I've used the laws of this country to pare debt. ... We'll have the company. We'll throw it into a chapter. We'll negotiate with the banks. We'll make a fantastic deal. You know, it's like on The Apprentice. It's not personal. It's just business."

You are really trashing Trump's credit-worthiness, Bronco. And hell, you might be right. YET, he has become wealthy - to whatever extent - doing business like he does it.

Not sure what you do for a living, Bronco, but if you're in business for yourself then you should know very well that it's strictly dog-eat-dog. It's a game, but it's a life-or-death game. Bankruptcy is a strategy. I've never filed but I've threatened it, and I've had people threaten me with it.

The conversation goes like this - "Nick, if I can't get that money by the end of the month I'm gonna have to take you to court."

"Well goddamn Bob, you know you can't squeeze blood out of a turnip, if you do that I'm gonna have to go Chapter 11. You're running me out of business here."

"Well, fuck, when CAN you pay me?"

And everybody eventually gets their money.

People who don't play the game don't understand that business is essentially an adult extension of schoolyard brinksmanship.

Laws and regulations are there for a reason. They're simply the rules of the game. The reason everyone hates lawyers is that their entire profession constitutes the effort to make those rules work for their clients.

If you play by the rules - even if you stretch the intention of those rules to your own benefit - you are still doing business. Step outside them and you've entered the realm of criminality. I think if Trump has stepped outside them, he's done so ever-so-gently and carefully.

[broncofan]

I understand that when a business is nearly insolvent banks will negotiate with them so that they can get paid without foreclosing their assets. People probably do threaten to declare bankruptcy as a way of inducing flexibility. I am not used to hearing such naked statements about people throwing a company into chapter 11 to pare debt because it sounds like the business isn't really at risk of insolvency.

If you threaten financial institutions with declaring business bankruptcy in order to renegotiate debt you damage your credit-worthiness and would make them want to value all of your assets before lending to you. I am not so worried about his creditworthiness as what would induce a bank to lend to him. If he lied about the value of his assets to a bank that is fraud. That's the important point here.

[broncofan]

Gas price on 1/19/20 at my local station, 2 bucks a gallon, today the price is $2.73.

This is ingenious. Biden made your gas prices go up in the month since his inauguration. BTW you mean 1/19/2021. But on that date my local cvs sold toothpaste for 3.59. Today it is selling for 3.29 because Biden negotiated with the fluoride wholesalers.

[Nick Danger]

I understand that when a business is nearly insolvent banks will negotiate with them so that they can get paid without foreclosing their assets. People probably do threaten to declare bankruptcy as a way of inducing flexibility. I am not used to hearing such naked statements about people throwing a company into chapter 11 to pare debt because it sounds like the business isn't really at risk of insolvency.

If you threaten financial institutions with declaring business bankruptcy in order to renegotiate debt you damage your credit-worthiness and would make them want to value all of your assets before lending to you. I am not so worried about his creditworthiness as what would induce a bank to lend to him. If he lied about the value of his assets to a bank that is fraud. That's the important point here.

Has nothing to do with solvency, Bronco, it's merely a question of cashflow. I'll provide an example with some over-simplified numbers.

I buy $1000 worth of aluminum from you. I get your bill and it's due on the 15th. But gold is at a low and I'd like to get a piece of that. Armed with the knowledge that I can probably talk you into waiting until next month to get paid, I use your $1000 to buy $1000 worth of gold. On the 16th we'll be talking, and that's when the game begins - maybe you put so much pressure on me that I'm forced to divest to get you paid, or maybe I convince you that it's in your best interest to wait til next month for your money. The same guy I'm pleading poverty to is probably simultaneously pleading poverty to his guy and may very well be doing so for the exact same reason I'm doing it. In the end, though, I come out ahead by doing a little negotiating instead of giving my creditor instant gratification.

I once had to find a new magnesium supplier because I put mine off one too many times. But simple solution, I DID find a new magnesium supplier. Meanwhile my old supplier has lost business because he decided the headache wasn't worth it. So, okay, move on.

Like I said, it's a game. Everyone plays it, some people play it a hell of a lot better than I do and I'm more often on the receiving end - a business bottom. But when I can get on top, I do.

[broncofan]

I'm over on the Viper thread now! I'll respond to this over there but I only have ten minutes until later tonight.

[filghy2]

I love that you're a fan of mine, Flighty.

I am a fan of the character Nick Danger, though more for entertainment than for educational purposes. How closely that character is related to the real person doing the typing I do not know - I'm sure there is some degree of deliberate exaggeration. If I didn't know already that the USA is full of crazy people I would have assumed you were just pulling our legs for fun.