Covid-19 Politics

[broncofan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/h...reatments.html

The reason many virologists are interested in the results of human trials in monoclonal antibodies is that it takes two to five years to develop an antiviral that is tailored to a particular virus. It is also unlikely that repurposed drugs, be they antivirals or immunosuppressants, are going to have a major impact on the course of the epidemic. On the other hand, monoclonal antibodies, if production can match demand, actually have the potential to come online and make a big difference prior to the approval of vaccines. Furthermore, testing of antibody cocktails in two different animal models have shown robust effects on disease course.

Is it any surprise then that the Trump administration has spent very little money helping to develop them? Is it any surprise that clinical trials are difficult to conduct because of testing deficiencies, including slow turn around times on tests which has slowed enrollment? Regeneron's data is going to be delayed by at least a month and Eli Lilly has now said they may not be done with phase iii trials until the end of the year. Government money may help Regeneron produce at risk but there are a bunch of other companies trying to develop them, from Lilly to Sorrento. Another missed opportunity to actually help people.

[Stavros]

A brutal analysis of the Conservative Governmen inept management of Covid-19-

"The government has offered no support to ensure people are able to self-isolate. Nor has it collected statistics on whether people actually are self-isolating – an extraordinary oversight, given that the whole exercise is practically pointless without this information. If isolating means people – particularly those in the gig economy – will lose their incomes and possibly even their jobs, they are far less likely to come forward to be tested. Likewise, they’re less likely to name their mates, who may also lose out. How can we expect people to look after their community if their community won’t look after them?
Despite clear international evidence indicating the importance of support measures, and domestic stories about people spreading infection because they continued to work even when unwell, the government has done nothing to support people isolating. They have made no moves to ensure those people have access to sick pay or to prevent bad employers from reprimanding workers who have to isolate. The government has designed a system whose aim is to get people to self-isolate – without making it possible for people to do so."
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...gs-coronavirus

[Stavros]

The Telegraph in the UK argues that the fundamental flaw in China in the information chain in December 2019 -possibly even before that- lay in the fear among low-level party and Wuhan city functionaies that they would be punished for admitting they had not been able to control the first cases of what became Covid 19. Though it appears to shift direct blame from the Chinese Government, the culture of fear and silence in the Communist Party which must be immune from criticism, undoubtedly helped the virus spread. How other Governments then reacted is a separate argument, but this one seems reasonable to believe-

"Unfortunately for the world, the universal fear of passing bad news up the chain was all the more acute in this case under an authoritarian system that encourages officials to withhold information for fear of reprisal.
Tragically, this enduring lack of transparency and accountability under President Xi Jinping’s Communist regime means we may never know the cause of this deadly coronavirus in order to prevent the next. "
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...d-19-outbreak/

[broncofan]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...38862108663808

Donald Trump is pretending like the hold-up with vaccines and therapeutics is red tape from "deep state" saboteurs at the FDA. First, there has not been a hold up with vaccines as they have moved at extremely rapid speed through phase i and ii trials and are enrolling patients for phase iii very quickly. We are not Russia (yet). We are not going to be administering untested vaccines to people when we don't know whether they're safe or effective. What Russia is doing doesn't just endanger its own citizens but also risks making the pandemic worse. Vaccine-induced resistance to viruses is more of a theoretical risk but it is possible for an ineffective vaccine to create a selection pressure for the virus that would increase its virulence. They could do this in the same way a therapeutic can create pathogen resistance. If the induced immune response doesn't completely clear the virus, it can result in mutations that are more difficult for the immune system to deal with.

Finally, the therapeutics he is talking about are delayed because of insufficient testing which is at least partly on him. He has spent the last several months hawking hydroxychloroquine when it's ineffective and has taken no interest in the therapeutics with the most potential, including interferon (Sukumvit posted a link on the other thread) and monoclonal antibodies. The government has invested a sum total of 450 million dollars into monoclonal antibodies, when it should have invested more than ten times that amount. If they are shown to be effective either at prevention in key workers or as therapeutics and they are not ready by election time, it is his negligence and the poorly coordinated response of our government that is to blame. Monoclonal antibodies should have been much easier to expedite through clinical trials than a vaccine because it is easier to screen for the dangers associated with administering one or two cloned antibodies than the varied immune responses of millions of people to a vaccine. If used as therapeutics, it also takes much less time to identify efficacy. But alas, with tests taking five days to come back it is difficult to enroll patients in trials meant to test the product in early disease.

What a clusterfuck. What an incompetent, stupid piece of shit Trump is and how unbelievably stupid anyone is who doesn't know it.

[Stavros]

And if the Republican Party is now in alliance with QAnon, should the President combat the 'Deep State' head-on, and fire all the Jews in his Administration, as presumably they are covert operatives of the 'Deep State' that is holding up development of the vaccine, and had Bannon arrested?

[KnightHawk 2.0]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...38862108663808

Donald Trump is pretending like the hold-up with vaccines and therapeutics is red tape from "deep state" saboteurs at the FDA. First, there has not been a hold up with vaccines as they have moved at extremely rapid speed through phase i and ii trials and are enrolling patients for phase iii very quickly. We are not Russia (yet). We are not going to be administering untested vaccines to people when we don't know whether they're safe or effective. What Russia is doing doesn't just endanger its own citizens but also risks making the pandemic worse. Vaccine-induced resistance to viruses is more of a theoretical risk but it is possible for an ineffective vaccine to create a selection pressure for the virus that would increase its virulence. They could do this in the same way a therapeutic can create pathogen resistance. If the induced immune response doesn't completely clear the virus, it can result in mutations that are more difficult for the immune system to deal with.

Finally, the therapeutics he is talking about are delayed because of insufficient testing which is at least partly on him. He has spent the last several months hawking hydroxychloroquine when it's ineffective and has taken no interest in the therapeutics with the most potential, including interferon (Sukumvit posted a link on the other thread) and monoclonal antibodies. The government has invested a sum total of 450 million dollars into monoclonal antibodies, when it should have invested more than ten times that amount. If they are shown to be effective either at prevention in key workers or as therapeutics and they are not ready by election time, it is his negligence and the poorly coordinated response of our government that is to blame. Monoclonal antibodies should have been much easier to expedite through clinical trials than a vaccine because it is easier to screen for the dangers associated with administering one or two cloned antibodies than the varied immune responses of millions of people to a vaccine. If used as therapeutics, it also takes much less time to identify efficacy. But alas, with tests taking five days to come back it is difficult to enroll patients in trials meant to test the product in early disease.

What a clusterfuck. What an incompetent, stupid piece of shit Trump is and how unbelievably stupid anyone is who doesn't know it.

Completely agree 1000%.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...38862108663808

Donald Trump is pretending like the hold-up with vaccines and therapeutics is red tape from "deep state" saboteurs at the FDA. First, there has not been a hold up with vaccines as they have moved at extremely rapid speed through phase i and ii trials and are enrolling patients for phase iii very quickly. We are not Russia (yet). We are not going to be administering untested vaccines to people when we don't know whether they're safe or effective. What Russia is doing doesn't just endanger its own citizens but also risks making the pandemic worse. Vaccine-induced resistance to viruses is more of a theoretical risk but it is possible for an ineffective vaccine to create a selection pressure for the virus that would increase its virulence. They could do this in the same way a therapeutic can create pathogen resistance. If the induced immune response doesn't completely clear the virus, it can result in mutations that are more difficult for the immune system to deal with.

Finally, the therapeutics he is talking about are delayed because of insufficient testing which is at least partly on him. He has spent the last several months hawking hydroxychloroquine when it's ineffective and has taken no interest in the therapeutics with the most potential, including interferon (Sukumvit posted a link on the other thread) and monoclonal antibodies. The government has invested a sum total of 450 million dollars into monoclonal antibodies, when it should have invested more than ten times that amount. If they are shown to be effective either at prevention in key workers or as therapeutics and they are not ready by election time, it is his negligence and the poorly coordinated response of our government that is to blame. Monoclonal antibodies should have been much easier to expedite through clinical trials than a vaccine because it is easier to screen for the dangers associated with administering one or two cloned antibodies than the varied immune responses of millions of people to a vaccine. If used as therapeutics, it also takes much less time to identify efficacy. But alas, with tests taking five days to come back it is difficult to enroll patients in trials meant to test the product in early disease.

What a clusterfuck. What an incompetent, stupid piece of shit Trump is and how unbelievably stupid anyone is who doesn't know it.

RE:And these are 2 more examples from a Clueless Buffoon spreading conspiracy theories,and doesn't know what the hell he is doing or what he's talking about. and agree that Donald Trump is an incompetent and stupid pile of shit. and
how unbelievably stupid anyone who doesn't know it.

[broncofan]

The FDA recently, under pressure from the Trump administration, supported an Emergency Use Authorization for convalescent plasma. Convalescent plasma was initially considered a promising therapy but more recent evidence suggests it's not very effective. First, most hospitalized patients have reasonably high titers of antibodies and the supposition is that a transfusion, even from someone who cleared the virus, may not do too much. In ebola, convalescent plasma was not effective even though monoclonal antibodies were, and my understanding is that it can be hit or miss in infectious diseases.

The most important point I suppose is that there aren't any randomized controlled trials demonstrating its effectiveness. We've spent time and effort with such trials of hydroxychloroquine, but 6 months into the U.S. pandemic we do not have results from a single rct for convalescent plasma. It may work, it is unlikely to cause harm, but its approval is politically motivated.

Finally, the idea of therapeutics is attractive to anyone who looks at public health efforts and says, "that's not the way it should be." It's a hope for a silver bullet or something that can make this pandemic go away. Likely that won't happen until we get a vaccine. As I've said before, I found monoclonal antibodies exciting and think they have a lot of potential in general despite their limitations, but we will probably be dealing with this until there's an effective vaccine.

[Stavros]

The situation here in the UK can best be described as confusion close to chaos. On the one hand, the overall rate of infection has declined as have daily deaths, but in specific parts of the country, including Scotland, there have been spikes in the rate of infection. Some of it has been caused by holiday-makers returning from supposedly 'safe' destinations in Greece and Portugal, others due to more schools opening. 20-30 year olds are accused of beig the carriers of the virus, largely because of the relaxation on physical distancing in public places.

Yesterday we had the farcical situation of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland having different regulations for holidaymakers-

"Differences in UK quarantine rules are "confusing" for travellers, Grant Shapps has admitted, as the four nations take varying approaches to international travel.
The transport secretary acknowledged people's frustrations, as Scotland and Wales asked arrivals from Portugal and parts of Greece to isolate, but England and Northern Ireland held off.
Wales' rules, including only six Greek islands, began at 04:00 BST on Friday.
Travel firms called for urgent clarity.
Some holidaymakers from England who anticipated a change in quarantine rules said they spent hundreds of pounds to get home early.
While Wales' advice has already changed, arrivals to Scotland from Portugal and French Polynesia will also have to self-isolate from 04:00 on Saturday. Scotland has already reintroduced quarantine for arrivals from Greece.
The measures will affect those who reside in Wales and Scotland but return to the UK via England.
Portugal, Greece and French Polynesia are still on England and Northern Ireland's lists of travel corridors."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54022411

Meanwhile Boris Johnsn's poll ratings have sunk from an approval rate of 92% in March to 48%. There is a sense here that the Government wants to move on from Covid, and certanly there is also anxiety that the trade negotiations with the EU are not going well, even if Johnson, Cummings and others want the UK to leave the EU in December without a deal. As the idea of income tax increases was floated earlier this week, alarm bells rang and the Prime Minister yesterday had to address a hastily arranged meeting of Tory MPs to calm their nerves, though he did so to a room packed with over 50 MPs, not wearing masks, in a room where 20 was supposed to be the maximum. It remans to be seen if anyone falls ill, as has happened with meetings addressed by the President in the USA.

It means that without a vaccine that is touted as some sort of magic bullet that will bring an end to the way we live, and with spikes in new cases forcing instant lockdowns of towns and cities or areas within them, we have moved from the gradual descent from the peak of the pandemic, to a jagged fall and rise which suggest that quarantine, self-isolation and other strategies may be with us for at least another six months, with a severe impact on the economy. How much longer can the Government subsidize business?

Add to that is the prospect of the UK failing to agree a trade deal with the EU, or an agreement of principles which leaves detais to be decided at a later date. But another report claims that with the formal end of UK-EU relations starting at the end of the year no firm plans have been put in place to control border traffic-

"Boris Johnson’s government has been warned of “border chaos” at the end of the Brexit transition period, as a leaked government document revealed that attempts to get the UK’s ready for trade for 1 January 2021 are “unmanageable”.
Eight major groups from the logistics industry are now demanding an urgent meeting with Michael Gove and other senior cabinet ministers – warning that the UK’s supply chain faces “severe disruption” if infrastructure and IT systems are not fixed."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9704536.html

Martin Kettle points out that when she was forced to resign as leader of her party, Margaret Thatcher had a majority of 101, larger than Johnson's. When he was running for the leadership there were plenty of warnings about Boris Johnson's cavalier attitude to policy, and he has demonstrated in recent months a frustration shared by most people that Covid continues to shape our lives. But while some of us accept that and the limitations it imposes on us, he wants to be rushing around doing other things, obsessed as he is with proving he has always been right about Brexit.

Johnson will survive his first year as Prime Minister- I don't expect a challenge to his leadership this December-, but will he survive 2021? The signs are not good, and even those of us who want to see him gone, cannot see much to hope for if Brexit + Covid makes a bad situation worse. Some people leaving the city for the countryside might wonder if they shoud leave the country altogether. If I was under the age of 40, I think I would leave.

Martin Kettle has a perceptive article on Johnson here-
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nservative-mps

[Stavros]

We had a right to think that by September we would be moving out of this crisis, not deeper into it. What a pathetic shower of idiots and losers this Government is!

"The UK has recorded a massive rise in the number of people testing positive for coronavirus, amid concerns the government has lost control of the epidemic just as people are returning to work and universities prepare to reopen.
Labour has demanded the health secretary, Matt Hancock, give an urgent statement to the House of Commons to explain the increase and why some people are still being told to drive hundreds of miles to have a test."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rol-cases-soar