US Elections 2020

[Stavros]

Although I have no faith in the polls, it is exactly Biden's election to lose. Some of it could be to his own doing. I would say in this order:

1. His VP pick
2. Complacency
3. Over confidence
4. A gaffe

He can also lose the election if people don't like the direction the country is going in come November. In the wake of George Floyd's murder and the protests/riots, there has been a rise in violent crime and it seems that Democratic leaders don't want address the issue for fear of alienating their base. Or if they do address it, they come up with a bunch of other reasons for the spike.

If enough of the independents and/moderates get fed up, they maybe willing to accept 4 more years of Trump because of the law and order issue.

Interesting, Blackchubby 38, that you shoud put the VP and Complacency in the top two. Robert Reich in today's Guardian/Observer (but I assume it is syndicated in other papers around the world), presents a remarkable picture of Americans of all political hues so opposed to the incumbent, that Biden is the Universal alternative to the man who has unified everyone against thim, thus:

"Donald Trump is on the verge of accomplishing what no American president has ever achieved – a truly multi-racial, multi-class, bipartisan political coalition so encompassing it could realign US politics for years to come.
Unfortunately for Trump, that coalition has come into existence to prevent him from having another term in office."
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...virus-pandemic

On this basis, Biden merely needs to talk softly, and avoid anything controversial -yes, the US will re-join the WHO; yes, the US will seek to endorse again the Paris Climate Change Agreement; Yes, one hopes, the EPA will regain its scientific purpose and re-impose strict regulations on industrial pollution. In other words, a reversal of the reversal of policy that has taken place since 2017.

But I wonder if it is wishful thinking on Reich's part. And in fact, as in the UK, there is an elephant in the room which people are ignoring, although it has been briefly referred to here in the UK -not 'Race', not Guns, not Defunding the Police, or Tearing Down Statues of Confederate General, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and JFK and Martin Luther King and Prince and James Brown and John Wayne -but this: TAXES.

We can't go on borrowing, even at zero interest rates; at some point, TAXES MUST RISE. Biden will undoubtedly say anything to get elected, even if he doesn't need to say so much, but let the incumbent talk himself into early retirement with his ugly, offensive, and ignorant appeal to prejudice and lies. And I suppose he could still win the Electoral College if the votes go close in some States, quite apart from the more sinister scenarios referred to in previous posts.

But when is someone going to argue that if change does come, it does not just mean change to the way we work, the residual fear of congregating with others undermining economic recovery, but the financial reality that someone has to pay for all the freebies being handed out by governments as substitues to pay, and the unavoidabe reality that the taxpayer is the only one left standing on the battlefield.

Workers of the World, Pay Up! Because nobody else is going to.

[MrFanti]

I didn't mean to make it sound like the protests were the cause of the spike in violent crime. Just saying what's been happening since then. Here in NYC there has been a rise in shootings and murder when you compare that stats to last year.

Through July 12, the city has recorded 634 shootings compared to 394 for the same period last year, a 60% increase. There have been 203 murders so far in 2020, a 23% jump compared to same time period in 2019, when the city recorded 165 killings.

I don't think the economic downturn isn't the only reason why that has happened.

The state recently passed a bail reform law and even before the pandemic there was evidence that it wasn't working. There are people who are out on the streets that just shouldn't be. You combine that with an economic downturn, a pandemic and shitty leadership on the local level, then the people who these reforms are supposed to help are usually the ones who wind up getting hurt in the end.

While you can focus on underlying economic and social factors, you still need smart and effective policing to combat crime.

http:////www.cnn.com/2020/07/18/us/n...ers/index.html

Well said!
And I think that a lot of these mayors that are currently presiding over high crime cities are going to be in for a rude awakening....But then again, Detroit is full of crime yet its citizens have continued to vote the same way for decades....

[filghy2]

A good point, but not relevant to this thread is the reserve power of the Governor-General, partly due to the recent release of Sir John Kerr's justification for sacking Gough Whitlam (an act that trashed the Labour Party yet led to the reforms that enabled Bob Hawke to take command by the end of the decade)- I wonder, is it because the Queen remains Head of State in Australia that the Governor-General retains 'reserve powers', and, if Austalia were to become a Republic, would a President have the same powers?

My understanding is the Governor-General's reserve powers were derived from the reserve powers of the British monarch, although the 1975 constitutional crisis could not happen in the UK because the upper house cannot block government financing bills.

The Republic referendum that failed in 1999 was for a minimalist change, with the head of state appointed by a two-thirds majority of Parliament on the PM's recommendation, rather than by the Queen. As that was the only change to the Constitution the reserve powers would have remained.

Some people have proposed that the reserve powers should be codified in a future referendum, so that the process for resolving a deadlock is clear rather than being left to the judgement of one person. The problem is that it would be very hard to get bipartisan agreement, which is essential for a referendum to succeed.

Fortunately, the 1975 crisis did not leading to ongoing problems of political instability because politicians appear to have accepted the need for restraint. There has been no further attempt to force an election by blocking supply since 1975.

[MrFanti]

And this person wants "Abolition of the United States"....
https://twitter.com/ElijahSchaffer/s...12759934267392

[broncofan]

I think Laphroaig asked this on another thread but I am curious how Biden is doing compared to Hillary at the same point. My sense just from glancing at poll numbers if that he's doing much better and that states that usually aren't even in contention appear to have swung blue.

We found out in the last election that polling doesn't always capture the entire picture and there are still 3 months and two weeks to go until the election. We also don't know to what extent Trump will try to suppress the vote, what's going to happen with mail in voting etc. I do think Biden is in a good position so far, but in such a divided country you can't take anything for granted.

[MrFanti]

Charles Barkley is WOKE WOKE
Can't fight racism with racism Black people!

[Stavros]

We also don't know to what extent Trump will try to suppress the vote, what's going to happen with mail in voting etc. I do think Biden is in a good position so far, but in such a divided country you can't take anything for granted.

I read somewhere the 'armed militias' of the Department of Homeland Security/Border Control Forces currently deployed in Oregon to deter 'potential' attacks on Federal property -including summary arrests and detention of innocent citizens- will be present in Democrat controlled cities because the Mayors are so incompetent and the threat so 'potential' -on the day you walk to the Polling Station, you may be escorted by an armed guard, or maybe the armed guard will assume you are about to deface a Federal wall or monument or pavestone, and arrest you so you can't vote. Might be best for the President to declare a State of Emergency and not hold the election at all.

[Stavros]

Charles Barkley is WOKE WOKE
Can't fight racism with racism]

I don't know Charles Barkley is, I don't know what 'Woke' means in its new life-is it a term of abuse now? And as for the guy in the video, he may have a point about the value of 'the home' in repairing human relations; his fixation on 'fatherless homes' is slippery, after all, were there not a substantal number of fatherless homes in the 1950s owing to the fathers killed in the Second World War and Korea? And suppose the home is a slum? How does one generate self-respect or any respect when living on the edge of destitution and sharing a run-down apartment with roaches and rats? Isn't that a good enough reason to spend summer nights on the street outside?

But when he says the Civil Rights have been won, he is an idiot, because many Republicans have been fighting against it since day one, and Edward Blum is a legal activist who the guy in the video needs to learn about-

"Some of Blum’s cases have had such an impact that even he has been taken aback. Nowhere is that truer than with Shelby County v Holder, a case he sponsored that in 2013 led the supreme court to overturn a key provision of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Blum told the Guardian he has worried over the fallout from that ruling, which spurred conservative legislators in Texas, North Carolina and elsewhere to revive laws that the Justice Department had previously blocked or was expected to block on the grounds that they were vehicles for minority vote suppression."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rmative-action

Kanye West promises to give a million bucks to every woman in the US when she has a child -he didn't say if she needed to be married. But I guess he could become 'the Black candidate' -I mean, there must be millions of Black Women who can see the opporunity to get laid and get rich a the same time, so what's not to like? Or, can't someone just tell Mr West to shut up?

[filghy2]

I think Laphroaig asked this on another thread but I am curious how Biden is doing compared to Hillary at the same point. My sense just from glancing at poll numbers if that he's doing much better and that states that usually aren't even in contention appear to have swung blue.

According to this article his lead is well ahead of Hillary Clinton's at the same stage in 2016, though she did have leads that were almost as large at later stages. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...matchup-369261

The best antidote to pessimism about the election is Trump himself. The man can't seem to help making himself the issue, and as long as the election is a referendum on him I don't think he can win.

[filghy2]

I don't know Charles Barkley is

Former basketball player. I assume we can expect to see a video of every black person that Fanti can find who agrees with him (not that I'm wasting time watching any of them).