Coronavirus

[Fitzcarraldo]

Do you believe the numbers from China?

They're likely higher than reported, which doesn't bode well for those pulling for seasonal flu.

[broncofan]

Originally Posted by blackchubby38
I live in NYC too and I agree with you. Testing still isn’t what it should be (or getting lab results , which are backed up all over the place)but it’s different in both -areas around the world , and even counties within different states here. Sometimes it has to do with logistics...sometimes demographics. Hell, the overall numbers in this country alone are disproportionately affected by different areas within it ...such as NYC where we live and entertain right on top of each other. That being said , I don’t know about the country, but NYC isn’t going back full throttle any time soon....but strict isolation will have to end in a couple of months.

The gulf between "end of April" and six months is huge. I agree this can't go on forever and it's probably a lot harder in NYC than elsewhere. The only point I'm making is that if you're not at the bottom of the curve with infections and you relax things without any way of tracking new infections, it will ramp up quickly again.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

This is a model a lot of people are looking at. It shows you guys are at peak right about now assuming distancing continues. By May deaths are relatively flat and since deaths trail infection by 23 days, late May would probably be a compromise. I think lots of places are going to be eager to open up in May though, and it just depends how prepared they are with testing what the consequence will be.

Edit: so maybe I agree with you both but think June is a better target. I also am getting some insight into how tough it is to be quarantined in nyc, which I probably should have been able to imagine.

[broncofan]

Hey Fred and Blackchubby, what do you guys think about the job De Blasio has done? I don't know NYC politics but every time I read a news article that mentions him the guy is saying or doing something stupid.

[blackchubby38]

Hey Fred and Blackchubby, what do you guys think about the job De Blasio has done? I don't know NYC politics but every time I read a news article that mentions him the guy is saying or doing something stupid.

Like everything else he has done with this city, a shitty job. In his briefings, he comes off more as begging for things than acting liking a leader.

[blackchubby38]

Originally Posted by blackchubby38
I actually work for a hospital that's undergone some massive changes over the past month to handle the surge of Coronavirus patients. As of last count, around 260 patients suffering from the virus have been discharged. So I'm pretty aware of what's going on the front lines of this pandemic. I'm also know that this is nothing like the flu.


I'm not saying we get back to normal all at once. Just like we gradually put in place social distancing and stay-at -home orders, we can do same when it comes to re-opening things.

I live in NYC too and I agree with you. Testing still isn’t what it should be (or getting lab results , which are backed up all over the place)but it’s different in both -areas around the world , and even counties within different states here. Sometimes it has to do with logistics...sometimes demographics. Hell, the overall numbers in this country alone are disproportionately affected by different areas within it ...such as NYC where we live and entertain right on top of each other. That being said , I don’t know about the country, but NYC isn’t going back full throttle any time soon....but strict isolation will have to end in a couple of months. We may have to isolate differently, or alter living arrangements - whatever - but you can’t do this for another six months. There are simply too many other problems caused by completely shutting things down that simply can’t be ignored. Developing therapeutics could help for sure, as science is going full throttle on this. But you can’t keep emptying out the prisons, as we are doing here and shuttering businesses. A vaccine will take another year. You can’t keep it all completely locked down til then. Who can tolerate that besides hermits and folks with guaranteed upper wage incomes? Obviously , you can’t completely end it overnight, otherwise you can waste all the pain we already out ourselves through, but you have to go back to living, perhaps with some permanent lifestyle changes. Soon.

I swear it looks like every person that they released from prison has wound up in my neighborhood.

[fred41]

Hey Fred and Blackchubby, what do you guys think about the job De Blasio has done? I don't know NYC politics but every time I read a news article that mentions him the guy is saying or doing something stupid.

Many politicians right now seem to be judged by two different standards: How they acted before the pandemic...and how they act now. I feel that he fails on both counts.
He was always terrible. Unlike many on this site...and even more folks on other social media, I ‘try’ not to let ideology, and the approval of my friends, guide my opinions of politicians. I try (perhaps not always successfully) to let my opinions be judged by their actions, sometimes in comparison to others, and how they will impact my over all life.

DeBlasio is the worst kind of politician: wrapped (and often blinded by) ideology, lazy, corrupt , hypocritical, whiny and often trying to cover his (and his wife’s) tail to the detriment of all others. This, of course covers many, if not most, politicians, but many are often very good at managing staffs and quelling fear - thereby creating more stability in a crisis (right now - Andrew Cuomo is a good example of this - clearly having his own corruption problems, not to mention many glimmers of personal arrogance in the past, but shining as a stable rudder in these shaky times).

Folks in NYC are horrendous when it comes to voting...so DeBlasio won two terms at a time when, either the reanimated corpse of Mayor Abe Beame or a wheel of cheese, would have been a better choice. At first, he blamed all this cities problems and short comings on President Trump - an obvious easy target - until all the investigations brought out the fact that under his administration, everything was inadequately short for years....and then there was the problem of himself and the head of his health administration urging New Yorkers to ignore the virus , go out have fun...go to all the celebrations...live it up...when the virus was already hitting.

So now he says to not point the finger at anyone, because no one really understood the scope of what was coming, having never really dealt with anything like this before. To some extent I believe he’s right in this..but he only pushes it now, because the media already exposed him. But he continues to empty the prisons even beyond what is safe and without any real forethought...and he still whines when given attention. I could go on, but unless you live here, you may not always understand...because to an outsider he seems like such a progressive darling, perhaps, instead of the actual asshole he really is.

Just want to add that, unfortunately New York is basically a one party town. This hurts in in general, because it keeps voters disinterested and often stops the brightest lights from running. The Democratic Party machine runs everything because of this...and when they don’t, it’s often even worse because that’s when ideological extremes win out, since those are the most rabid voters and likely to show up at a sparse election.

[broncofan]

DeBlasio is the worst kind of politician: wrapped (and often blinded by) ideology, lazy, corrupt , hypocritical, whiny and often trying to cover his (and his wife’s) tail to the detriment of all others. This, of course covers many, if not most, politicians, but many are often very good at managing staffs and quelling fear - thereby creating more stability in a crisis (right now - Andrew Cuomo is a good example of this - clearly having his own corruption problems, not to mention many glimmers of personal arrogance in the past, but shining as a stable rudder in these shaky times).

I think the key is that he's wedded to an ideology and sees every situation through that prism no matter what's going on. When that sort of thing is a problem for people, stupidity compounds it. That's the sense I've gotten when I've seen examples of his policies and the example you provide with the prison. There's a kernel of a good idea there that he probably misapplies, to everyone's detriment. I asked about him not to pander but because he seemed unusually incompetent to me when I've looked at some of the choices he made.

Even when he was asked to close down the schools and he said he didn't want to because kids rely on schools to get their meals. That's an important consideration. So why didn't he close the schools and find a way to provide meals for kids? Because he wanted to make some sort of ideological point about poverty. He could have provided for those kids and dealt with the emerging public health crisis.

[fred41]

I swear it looks like every person that they released from prison has wound up in my neighborhood.

We live in a town where ideology now rules - rich hipster gentrifiers vote for politicians vehemently opposed to gentrification. political activists control both houses of the NYS and fight for bail reform, a noble and just cause, but not when it’s to the detriment of public safety. The subways are once again, full of the mentally unstable who live in them...and criminals are once again released to terrorize the neighborhoods they come from...to the cheers of the loudest voices (friends and relations) , but to the quiet fears of their potential victims. This is what ideology has wrought.

[fred41]

I think the key is that he's wedded to an ideology and sees every situation through that prism no matter what's going on. When that sort of thing is a problem for people, stupidity compounds it. That's the sense I've gotten when I've seen examples of his policies and the example you provide with the prison. There's a kernel of a good idea there that he probably misapplies, to everyone's detriment. I asked about him not to pander but because he seemed unusually incompetent to me when I've looked at some of the choices he made.

Even when he was asked to close down the schools and he said he didn't want to because kids rely on schools to get their meals. That's an important consideration. So why didn't he close the schools and find a way to provide meals for kids? Because he wanted to make some sort of ideological point about poverty. He could have provided for those kids and dealt with the emerging public health crisis.

Exactly Bronco.

[broncofan]

Australia is well ahead of the US in terms of flattening the infection curve, and they are only talking cautiously about the possibility of easing some restrictions early next month. It's unclear what that might involve, but I doubt we are going to see restaurants. bars, etc reopening so soon.

Australia IS well ahead of us in terms of not having nearly as many infections per capita nor deaths per capita at peak. This is not to diminish what you guys have done because you've clearly handled this situation better than most countries, but what effect do you think weather has?

I've read a couple of articles that basically say that warmer weather and humidity doesn't make the virus go away but may make a slight difference in transmissibility which can matter a lot in aggregate. Has there been any talk of that?