2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[Stavros]

So here we are, a year before campaigning normally starts, and these are the declared runners and riders who are a wishin' and a hopin' to become President.

Nimrata Nikki Haley, Republican -if you don't know who she is, you might want to find out. Or not.

Donald J Trump, Republican -the Fake President who has lost every election he was a candidate in, not the best basis on which to seek the nomination.

Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican- apparently known only to viewers of Fox News, and given his views, not going to be known to many more.
Rich Jerk Runs For President Because 'Woke Capitalism' Is Bad (gizmodo.com) (https://gizmodo.com/vivek-ramaswamy-president-campaign-esg-environment-1850151344)

Ron De Santis, Republican -oh go on, Ron, run!

John Bolton, Republican -because there's a war on, and I do war.

Mike Pence, Republican -will he? Won't he? Who cares?

Marianne Williamson, Democrat -who? Indeed! Even this link doesn't inspire much curiosity.
Self-help author Marianne Williamson reveals long-shot 2024 primary bid against Joe Biden (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/self-help-author-marianne-williamson-150312975.html)

Joe Biden, Democrat -and why not? He thinks he can do it, and so does his wife, so what do Americans want?

Is this the campaign song?

Dusty Springfield - Wishin' And Hopin' - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycbgHM1mI0k)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

@Stavros:The MAGA Party has terrible candidates for the Republican Nomination.Most Americans will vote to re-elect Joe Biden for a second term as president,and to prevent the MAGA King Donald Trump from ever becoming president again,because it'll be alot worse than his first term. Yes it is the campaign song.

[MrFanti]

@Stavros:The MAGA Party has terrible candidates for the Republican Nomination.Most Americans will vote to re-elect Joe Biden for a second term as president,and to prevent the MAGA King Donald Trump from ever becoming president again,because it'll be alot worse than his first term. Yes it is the campaign song.

I used to like Biden - until he decided he could determine whether or not I was Black.....
I do like what Andrew Yang has been doing though....

[filghy2]

I'll say it yet again.
I support Tulsi Gabbard - who would make a much better POTUS than Biden IMHO....


I do like what Andrew Yang has been doing though....

Let's hope this ages better than your previous enthusiasm (now MAGA favourite).

[Stavros]

I used to like Biden - until he decided he could determine whether or not I was Black.....
I do like what Andrew Yang has been doing though....

Sorry, don't understand this. Must have missed something.

[filghy2]

Sorry, don't understand this. Must have missed something.

I assume he's referring to this comment. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/biden-you-aint-black-if-you-have-trouble-deciding-between-me-or-trump.html

It's interesting that Mr F seems more concerned about one Biden comment (which he apologised for) than he is about Trump's long history of encouraging bigots and fraternising with white supremacists.

[filghy2]

Interesting article on Ron De Santis's history of shape-shifting to advance his career according to which way the political winds were blowing. https://www.vox.com/politics/23622719/ron-desantis-2024-presidential-opportunism

Right-wing politics seems to have degenerated into a perfomative game of pandering to the prejudices of their voters. Whatever one's view on the policies of Thatcher and Reagan, they did at least appear to be acting out of a genuine conviction.

[filghy2]

Those Republicans who have welcomed De Santis as a counter to Trump may be in for an unpleasant surprise. It's looking like he intends to try to win the nomination by competing with Trump to appeal to the MAGA America First crowd.
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/3/14/23639980/ron-desantis-ukraine-republican-split

When a person describes Russia's brutal invasion as a "territorial dispute" that is pretty disingenuous.

This raises a couple of questions:
1. If you agree with Trump on most things then what is your argument for why Republicans should vote for your rather than him?
2. If it comes down to electability, how is trying to out-MAGA Trump going to win over swinging voters who dislike Trump?

[Stavros]

The question raised as it has been done here before, is: How do Republicans appeal to voters who do not normally vote for them, and do they even care about them? De Santis is no different from the others in appealing only to those voters who support the party position on firearms and the 2nd Amendment, anti-Abortion strategies, border hysteria, 'charter schools' and an hostility to Critical Race Theory that is so ignorant of this school of jurisprudence as to be little more than anti-Black racism.

Is it the case that Republicans know they cannot win the popular vote (as Nikki Haley pointed out in her speech the other week), but can win the Electoral College, even if it means using voter suppression, and newly elected State/Election officials to manipulate the vote? If this is true it suggest the 2024 election is going to descend into chaos fairly quickly if Biden is re-elected, assuming he is the candidate.

But what legitimacy would such a Republican have if barely 30% of the voters vote for him or her, and the evidence of 'rigging' on their side if clear?

[MrFanti]

@Stavros:The MAGA Party has terrible candidates for the Republican Nomination.Most Americans will vote to re-elect Joe Biden for a second term as president,and to prevent the MAGA King Donald Trump from ever becoming president again,because it'll be alot worse than his first term. Yes it is the campaign song.

Let's also not forget that Black America support for Harris was so abysmal - she dropped out of contention without even making it to the primaries.

Kamala Harris flames out: Black people didn't trust her, and they were wise not to
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/12/14/kamala-harris-campaign-democratic-primary-black-voters-2020-column/2638096001/

[Stavros]

Let's also not forget that Black America support for Harris was so abysmal - she dropped out of contention without even making it to the primaries.

Kamala Harris flames out: Black people didn't trust her, and they were wise not to
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/12/14/kamala-harris-campaign-democratic-primary-black-voters-2020-column/2638096001/

Clarification required, because according to Thombergon-

"Y'all. Harris currently enjoys a 72% approval rating among Black Americans. It's only slightly lower than her 77% approval among Democrats. Black voters were lukewarm on Harris at the top of a ticket in a must-win election because they (rightly) suspected that America is still too racist and misogynist to elect a black woman to the Presidency.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...rs-2020-075651 (https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/04/kamala-harris-black-voters-2020-075651)

Harris is 57 years old and currently holds the highest elected office any woman has held in American history. If you're anti-Kamala, you better steel yourself because she's going to be bothering you for another couple decades or so."
Komm, Kamala, Komm and Save the Nation! - Page 2 (hungangels.com) (http://www.hungangels.com/vboard/showthread.php?111069-Komm-Kamala-Komm-and-Save-the-Nation!/page2) (post#11)

[Luke Warm]

Apparently, almost nobody votes for a presidential ticket based on who the VP candidate is. Kamala isn’t running for president unless something bad happens to Biden. If that does happen, Kamala will have to compete to be the 2024 candidate just like anybody else, no guarantee that she will be the candidate. She may be able to claim that her time as VP qualifies her more than others (or maybe not). If Kamala actually needs to step in during Biden’s term (for example if Biden dies and Kamala becomes president for a time) then that experience will probably be more important.

I don’t really see much point in discussing Kamala… her position is mostly as backup. (She does have a lot of historical importance for women and people of color though.)

[Stavros]

Are we really going to witness the spectacle of Biden vs Trump in 2024? Is it a case of 'Do I get to win this time?' for Putin's little friend?

[MrFanti]

(She does have a lot of historical importance for women and people of color though.)
And even with that, Blacks didn't support her prior to the primaries....Good to know that "we" won't vote for someone purely because they're Black....Bigger question is will Biden continue with her as VP?

[Luke Warm]

Bigger question is will Biden continue with her as VP?

100% yes. That was a winning formula in 2020 so why change it? I think the general consensus among Democrats is that Biden is doing much better than people expected, and overall this administration has had some success. Switching to another VP candidate would be like admitting there was a big problem with Kamala when a big problem doesn’t really exist.

If you see polls saying that Kamala has unfavorable polling, just ignore it, it’s meaningless. Nobody votes for who the VP candidate is. Some people dislike her because she’s not liberal enough, some people dislike her because she’s too liberal, some people dislike her because they don’t understand the job of VP is mainly backup. The reasons that some people dislike her are all over the board, there is no single reason all those people can agree on. At the end of the day, she will be running with Biden in 2024 again, and all those democrats who told pollsters that they don’t like Kamala (or Biden) will still vote Democratic. Again. Because the alternative is considered much worse.

[MrFanti]

100% yes. That was a winning formula in 2020 so why change it?
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Not arguing against you - but so far, nothing has been officially stated.

[MrFanti]

If you see polls saying that Kamala has unfavorable polling, just ignore it, it’s meaningless. Nobody votes for who the VP candidate is. Some people dislike her because she’s not liberal enough, some people dislike her because she’s too liberal, some people dislike her because they don’t understand the job of VP is mainly backup. The reasons that some people dislike her are all over the board, there is no single reason all those people can agree on. At the end of the day, she will be running with Biden in 2024 again, and all those democrats who told pollsters that they don’t like Kamala (or Biden) will still vote Democratic. Again. Because the alternative is considered much worse.
It has nothing to do with polls IMHO, we Blacks didn't support her because of certain things that she did - hence the reason why she dropped out before even the primaries had started. And IMHO, I can think of a few Black women that I'd pick over her.
But technically, she's not Black......so I guess that makes my point moot.....:cool:

[Stavros]

It has nothing to do with polls IMHO, we Blacks didn't support her because of certain things that she did - hence the reason why she dropped out before even the primaries had started. And IMHO, I can think of a few Black women that I'd pick over her.
But technically, she's not Black......so I guess that makes my point moot.....:cool:

You make assertions without addressing the need for clarification in my post#11 above, not least because of the words you use 'we Blacks' for example. Dare I suggest you do not speak for all Black Americans, or even a majority?

The complexities of voting and representation are contained in this fascinating examination of the 'urban-rural' divide in the US, if in fact it exists. It suggests, for example, that rural Black Americans may face the same levels of poverty that exist for Black Americans in cities, but also that with the right management and funding, poverty among Black Americans might also not be bad in either rural or urban areas.
The ‘rural-urban divide’ furthers myths about race and poverty—concealing effective policy solutions (brookings.edu) (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/12/08/the-rural-urban-divide-furthers-myths-about-race-and-poverty-concealing-effective-policy-solutions/)

As for individuals, well maybe you could give us your 'top picks' of Black American women, given that I am only familiar this side of the Atlantic with those who I have seen on tv, eg Val Demings. One notes, in addition that there have been prominent Black American women before, Condoleezza Rice being an obvious one. And at one time Carol Mosely Braun was tipped as a high flyer but did not advance beyond the Senate to the White House.

[filghy2]

I used to like Biden - until he decided he could determine whether or not I was Black.....


But technically, she's not Black......so I guess that makes my point moot.....:cool:

So it's okay for you to determine whether someone else is "Black"? I'm pretty sure there is actually no such thing as "Black"; there is just people who have some degree of African ancestry (which she has on her father's side).

It's ironic that you keep speaking for "we Blacks" after previously complaining about people making generalisations about "Blacks".

[filghy2]

You make assertions without addressing the need for clarification in my post#11 above, not least because of the words you use 'we Blacks' for example. Dare I suggest you do not speak for all Black Americans, or even a majority?

It looks like the courageous MrF has gone back to blocking us. I'm not sure what the point of joining discussions is if a person refuses to explain or defend what they've posted.

[Stavros]

It looks like the courageous MrF has gone back to blocking us. I'm not sure what the point of joining discussions is if a person refuses to explain or defend what they've posted.

I don't see the point of blocking someone. It is possible to read posts without logging in, so all of them will be listed and if Mr Fanti or anyone else doesn't want to read someone else's post, they won't. As Mr Fanti rarely goes into any discussion about his views, I guess we must just accept he doesn't want to, disappointing though it is.

[MrFanti]

100% yes. That was a winning formula in 2020 so why change it? I think the general consensus among Democrats is that Biden is doing much better than people expected, and overall this administration has had some success. Switching to another VP candidate would be like admitting there was a big problem with Kamala when a big problem doesn’t really exist.

If you see polls saying that Kamala has unfavorable polling, just ignore it, it’s meaningless. Nobody votes for who the VP candidate is. Some people dislike her because she’s not liberal enough, some people dislike her because she’s too liberal, some people dislike her because they don’t understand the job of VP is mainly backup. The reasons that some people dislike her are all over the board, there is no single reason all those people can agree on. At the end of the day, she will be running with Biden in 2024 again, and all those democrats who told pollsters that they don’t like Kamala (or Biden) will still vote Democratic. Again. Because the alternative is considered much worse.
Kamala Harris Trashed In White House Leak: 2 Former Officials Say Joe Biden 'Irked' By VEEP For Not 'Rising to Occasion' Or Taking 'Anything Off His Plate'
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kamala-harris-trashed-in-white-house-leak-2-former-officials-say-joe-biden-irked-by-veep-for-not-rising-to-occasion-or-taking-anything-off-his-plate/ar-AA1924yD?ocid=a2hs&li=BBnbfcL

[Stavros]

Has any Vice-President been the target of such hostile press coverage in the way that Kamala Harris has been and continues to be? Given that Vice-Presidents tend to be in the shadow of the President, and I guess it is up to him to give the VP tasks, I wonder if the fact that the current Vice-President is a Woman, and a Woman of Colour is the motivation. The Murdoch Press hates her. The Barclay owned Telegraph is relentless in its attacks on her.

Even some people on HungAngels detest her, without saying why.

[filghy2]

Let's also not forget that Black America support for Harris was so abysmal - she dropped out of contention without even making it to the primaries.

Kamala Harris flames out: Black people didn't trust her, and they were wise not to
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/12/14/kamala-harris-campaign-democratic-primary-black-voters-2020-column/2638096001/

Did MrF actually read this article he posted? It claims that black people did not support her because she was too tough on crime and didn't push police reform when she was AG. Isn't that what he said he wanted?


Agreed 100%
What the Democrats are AFRAID of is stopping all this violence in THEIR cities!


Here's an interesting data point:
81 Percent of Black Americans Want the Same Level, or More, of Police Presence: Gallup
https://reason.com/2020/08/06/81-percent-of-black-americans-want-the-same-level-or-more-of-police-presence-gallup/

[Stavros]

Two more names for the hat-

Asa Hutchinson, as in...who?

Joe Manchin, perhaps...but why? Hasn't he had enough publicity for one lifetime?

And so far this all looks like a list of losers.

Asa Hutchinson announces candidacy for Republican presidential nomination | US elections 2024 | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/02/asa-hutchinson-announces-candidacy-for-republican-presidential-nomination)

[filghy2]

Asa Hutchinson, as in...who?

He's the only one not echoing Trump's line on the indictment. How hard would it be for these people to just say something like "I have concerns, but let's wait to see how the process works out"? How do they expect to beat Trump if they are afraid to criticise him?
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/02/asa-hutchinson-presidential-bid-trump-withdraw-00090058

[Stavros]

Another one lights the rust-

"Robert F Kennedy Jr, an anti-vaccine activist and scion of one of the most famous American political families, is running for president."

-Running for the Democrat Party nomination because as yet the Party of Cranks and Weirdos has not been registered. Scary.

"A photo posted on Instagram showed Kennedy backstage at a July 2021 Reawaken America event with the Trump ally Roger Stone, former national security adviser Michael Flynn and anti-vaccine profiteer Charlene Bollinger. All three have promoted the lie about the 2020 election being stolen.


Bollinger has appeared with Kennedy at multiple events. She and her husband sponsored an anti-vaccine, pro-Trump rally near the Capitol on January 6. Bollinger celebrated the attack and her husband tried to enter the Capitol. Kennedy later appeared in a video for their Super Pac."
Anti-vaccine activist Robert Kennedy Jr announces run for president | US politics | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/06/robert-kennedy-jr-announces-run-for-president-anti-vaccine-activist)

[Stavros]

'From cotton to Congress' -I think this is going to need some more spin...and credibility?

Tim Scott Launches 2024 Presidential Exploratory Committee (yahoo.com) (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/tim-scott-launching-2024-presidential-005810460.html)

[dirkmcgee]

Lmaoooo at framing any issue with CRT as "anti black racism"

I guess intellectuals like fucking JOHN MCWORTER are racist. Absolute fucking clowns on this board!

[Stavros]

Lmaoooo at framing any issue with CRT as "anti black racism"

I guess intellectuals like fucking JOHN MCWORTER are racist. Absolute fucking clowns on this board!

It is a pity you don't offer a more detailed complaint. I understand the frustration some people have with so-called 'Third Wave' this and that, be it Feminism or Race, but it comes from decades of disappointment bordering on rage, that the gains that were made in the 1960s have been successfully targeted by the political Right in the US, crucially on the right to vote.

I have been reading the sequence of articles in The Guardian on Slavery, Cotton and Manchester (where The Guardian was first published) but have found the argument on Reparations hard to take for reasons I might elaborate in another thread. I understand that Reparations means more than financial compensation, and that it seeks an overhaul of the mind-set or mentality that supports a Race-based interpretation of history, and the contemporary practices that some argue disadvantage Black people in a systemic manner.

CRT to my mind offers a powerful critique of the way in which the law has been used since the end of the Civil War, to either limit or even deny the Freedom that was guaranteed in the 14th Amendment, and in numerous laws passed since then. For while McWorter can attack 'Third Wave' of 'Woke AntiRacism' he understands how in the aftermath of the Civil War, Black Americans rather than go berserk across the South murdering their former 'owners', used education and opportunity to succeed across a variety of ways of life, in particular being elected to public office. But of the 700 or so Black Elected Officials c1880, by 1905 there were none. The age of Black advancement was matched by the emergence of the KKK, for the simple reason that some White folks refused to accept that any Black person be regarded as their equal. McWorter is aware of the 'Jim Crow' era and condemns it.

Now consider how, 100 years after the end of the Civil War, the Johnson Administration and Congress combined to reverse the reversals, end segregation and create a more level playing field for Black Americans -and how, when the ink was barely dry on the Voting Rights Act of 1965 the 'political Right' began to organize against everything that the 1960s tried to do, including rights for Women and what we now call LGBTQ+ communities and individuals. And also bear in mind that this movement against Freedom has been successful, that Voter Suppression is a reality, that it is not accidental or coincidental, that the Districts which Trump claims 'rigged' or 'stole' his election success in Michigan and Georgia, are in demographic terms, mostly Black.

The Republicans and their front organizations -the Cato Institute, the Christian Evangelicals, think tanks funded by the Koch Bros and other Billionaires have been on the attack since the 1960s and are not letting go, and have discovered in Trans people a fresh new target, but are also meeting a robust response. Yes, it is ugly, and sometimes over the top, but when people start using words like 'Fascism' or 'Totalitarian' they are disguising the nature of the confrontation, which remains a fundamental problem that some White people have, that they cannot and will not accept that Black people are their equals, and must have equal rights, and this must mean an Equality of Opportunity, and an Equality of Outcome.

There may be other ways to debate these issues in public, and attempting to make White people feel Guilty for Slavery these days is pointless, but works to get the same people upset, so that nobody wins the argument, and all you get is the ignorant drivel of Donald Trump and Ron De Santis, a diet of grievance, accusation and threats, when they are the people who have moved heaven and earth to turn the clock back to 1860 or for that matter 1660.

And what are the real issues that the candidates in 2024 should be talking about? Who benefits from this tempest of noise that avoids the hard stuff?

[Stavros]

For the Republic(ans)...Larry Elder, presumably known to Americans?

"Naming policing and crime as two areas of particular concern to him, he told the host: “We’ve incentivised women to marry the government. We’ve incentivised men to abandon their financial and moral responsibility. And if I do nothing else in this race, but focus people on those two issues… I would perform this service to my country.”"
Larry Elder: Who is the latest Republican throwing his hat into the ring for 2024? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/larry-elder-latest-republican-throwing-115856063.html)

An unusual take on marriage...

[Luke Warm]

Lmaoooo at framing any issue with CRT as "anti black racism"

I guess intellectuals like fucking JOHN MCWORTER are racist. Absolute fucking clowns on this board!

I had to look him up. I can tell you’re a big fan of his work, since you spelled his name wrong 😑

From his Wikipedia page: “McWhorter has posited that anti-racism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-racism) has become as harmful in the United States as racism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism) itself”.

No wonder right wingers like him. But that idea is totally laughable. Comparing “Anti-racism” to the damage of a hundred years of slavery??? Ridiculous.

[filghy2]

Not to be outdone, this is what the aforementioned Larry Elder thinks, according to Wikipedia:

"Elder does not believe in systemic racism, calling it a lie. He is a critic of the Black Lives Matter movement, blaming it for rising crime. As part of his criticism of welfare, he stated that it is more harmful to Black families than slavery ever was."

[blackchubby38]

Sometimes the sequel just isn't as good as the first movie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NPVvwimXgg

[KnightHawk 2.0]

For the Republic(ans)...Larry Elder, presumably known to Americans?

"Naming policing and crime as two areas of particular concern to him, he told the host: “We’ve incentivised women to marry the government. We’ve incentivised men to abandon their financial and moral responsibility. And if I do nothing else in this race, but focus people on those two issues… I would perform this service to my country.”"
Larry Elder: Who is the latest Republican throwing his hat into the ring for 2024? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/larry-elder-latest-republican-throwing-115856063.html)

An unusual take on marriage...Indeed it is an unusual take.

[Stavros]

Would it not be more honest of Mike Pence to say, not, that 'I am a Christian', but that he wants the USA to be, officially, a Christian Country? For all his talk about God, Family and Country, has he ever praised Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, the Hindu and other religious beliefs? It seems to me that most of the Republicans who promote a Religious agenda, in fact only promote the Christian agenda- and a Christian agenda as defined by them, one that flips faith into intolerance, hope into fear, charity into cruelty.

My guess is that he is not going to go far in this process, but stranger thing have happened in the US Election Cycle.

[Stavros]

He is young, articulate and good looking -so why isn't he in the frame for 2024? That said, I don't know if he has been a success in California, or indeed, how to measure success in that complex State.

Gavin Newsom Gives Sean Hannity Blunt Fact-Checks In Fiery Fox News Clash (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gavin-newsom-gives-sean-hannity-044009277.html)

[filghy2]

He is young, articulate and good looking -so why isn't he in the frame for 2024?

The basic problem is that there is literally no precedent for replacing an incumbent President who wants to run again. Biden has a reasonable record of legislative achievement and there hasn't been any major scandal or policy disaster on his watch. It's not suprising that no prominent Democrat wants to risk causing division in the party by opposing him.

[Stavros]

The basic problem is that there is literally no precedent for replacing an incumbent President who wants to run again. Biden has a reasonable record of legislative achievement and there hasn't been any major scandal or policy disaster on his watch. It's not suprising that no prominent Democrat wants to risk causing division in the party by opposing him.

You make valid points, disappointing though the situation is for the Democrats.

[Stavros]

Another one steps forward, ready to bite the dust, at some time in the future. That said, a Republican who can see the potential danger of Florida sinking into the sea, and sort of doing something about it-

Mayor of Miami Francis Suarez enters 2024 Republican presidential race | US elections 2024 | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/15/mayor-miami-francis-suarez-enters-2024-republican-presidential-race#:~:text=The%20mayor%20of%20Miami%2C%20Francis ,for%20the%20Republican%20presidential%20nominatio n.&text=On%20Thursday%20morning%2C%20he%20tweeted,'m% 20running%20for%20president.%E2%80%9D)

[filghy2]

Naomi Klein wrote an interesting article recently on Robert Kennedy Jr, arguing that he should be taken seriously as he may appeal to many people even though his stances are phony.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/14/ignoring-robert-f-kennedy-jr-not-an-option

It's certainly telling that someone who previously built a reputation on caring about the environment is now offering excuses for why the government should do nothing about climate change.

It's understandable that people are looking for alternatives in the current environment, but it's disheartening that this so often leads them to manipulative charlatans.

[Stavros]

Thanks for the link, I saw this the other day but didn't read it, and she does a good job demolishing Kennedy's drivel. My only slight annoyance is with the typically American refusal to talk about Capitalism, shifting the argument to a well-rehearsed one, like this:

"...a great many voters are hurting and rightfully angry: about powerful corporations controlling their democracy and profiting off disease and poverty. About endless wars draining national coffers and maiming their kids. About stagnating wages and soaring costs. This is the world – inflamed on every level – that the two-party duopoly has knowingly created."

American Capitalism has benefited corporations since the 19th century, while anti-trust laws have been passed and even implemented (notably the break-up of Rockefeller's Standard Oil in 1911), but the trend is hard to resist because of the wealth and influence it creates. So there isn't much of an intelligent debate on such big issues, but nit-picking on things like welfare, medicaid and so on.

What also strikes me is the faith some people put in the powers of One Man to heal the wounds, repair the damage, liberate them from bondage, restore their pride. That the main candidates for position of Redeemer are frauds like Trump, or just incapable, like De Santis, makes one wonder why this phenomenon has not died a death of a thousand exposures, not to mention Court cases.

Why don't Americans put more faith in themselves than some 'Great Leader'? We have just seen a wannabe Julius Caesar leave the stage in the UK, his career ended by his deluded belief in himself,. And on that basis, Joe Biden as an elderly, sometimes incoherent President, is at least a good manager of the affairs of State. I don't think American needs all that 'razzamatazz' or whatever its called, but who knows what will happen in the next 12 months?

[blackchubby38]

He is young, articulate and good looking -so why isn't he in the frame for 2024? That said, I don't know if he has been a success in California, or indeed, how to measure success in that complex State.

Gavin Newsom Gives Sean Hannity Blunt Fact-Checks In Fiery Fox News Clash (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gavin-newsom-gives-sean-hannity-044009277.html)

While I do think he is just being a surrogate for Biden, with an eye towards 2028, there are times it feels like Gavin Newsom is warming up in the bullpen just in case he is needed for 2024.

[Stavros]

While I do think he is just being a surrogate for Biden, with an eye towards 2028, there are times it feels like Gavin Newsom is warming up in the bullpen just in case he is needed for 2024.

Interesting...so I guess Newsom doesn't get on, or see much future for Kamala Harris?

[Stavros]

A pep talk for those for whom California ain't about dreamin' but real promise -though one would hope a solution to the homeless might be more possible than it seems to be, and as for the rental sector....but can't have everything I suppose.

California dreaming: How the Golden State plans to lead the resistance to Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/california-dreaming-how-the-golden-state-plans-to-lead-the-resistance-to-donald-trump-and-ron-desantis/ar-AA1cJnJF?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8c822ec140d648f58c68c50777cbb4d7&ei=25)

[Stavros]

Vivek has amazing teeth, is that a vote winner?

[filghy2]

No surprise, but Trump is refusing to promise to support the Republican nominee if he doesn't win.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/trump-republican-loyalty-pledge-debate-00110599

[Fitzcarraldo]

No surprise, but Trump is refusing to promise to support the Republican nominee if he doesn't win.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/trump-republican-loyalty-pledge-debate-00110599

A pledge that was introduced for his benefit.

[Stavros]

Is it too late for the Media Baron to promote his Political Kin?

Rupert Murdoch is urging Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin to jump into the Republican presidential race, report says (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rupert-murdoch-urging-virginia-gov-153246835.html)

And is Glenn a contender?

[Stavros]

I didn't see the debate but cull a few remarks from the report in The Guardian

De Santis
"I’m a blue-collar kid. I work minimum wage jobs to be able to make ends meet."

-Then like any other blue collar guy, say, from West Virginia, I went to Yale, then Harvard Law School, then the Navy....keep the dream alive!

Vivek Ramaswamy
"God is real. There are two genders. Fossil fuels are a requirements for human prosperity. Reverse racism is racism. An open border is not a border. Parents determined the education of their children. That nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to man. Capitalism lifts us up from poverty. There are three branches of government, not four. And the US constitution, it is strongest guarantor of freedom in human history."

-No prosperity before the commercial development of oil and gas in the 19th century? What is the nuclear family -three wives and five children? What if parents cannot read and write?

"“Part of the problem is we also have a federal government that pays single women more not to have a man in the house than to have a man in the house, contributing to an epidemic of fatherlessness."

-Not because some guys want to get laid but not be dads? Does this guy actually live in the US?

Tim Scott
"“I had the good fortune to have a mom who worked 16-hour days, making sure we had food on our tables. She taught me that if you’re able-bodied in America, you work, if you take out a loan, you pay it back, you commit a violent crime, you go to jail. And if God made you a man, you play sports against men,” the South Carolina senator said."

-So is he going to ban mixed doubles in Tennis, Badminton, and Squash, and ban sports where men and women compete together, like Horse Racing, Equestrian events, Luge? What about Ice Skating?

Republican debate veers from abortion and fentanyl to Trump and Ukraine as Harris attacks ‘extremist agenda’ – as it happened | Republicans | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/aug/23/republican-presidential-debate-2023-candidates-trump-tucker-live-updates)

Ever get the feeling these guys are out of touch with what is happening in their own country?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Ever get the feeling these guys are out of touch with what is happening in their own country?

They don't care about what is happening in the country. They care about appealing to their base.

[Stavros]

Meanwhile, De Santis is going to get tough on drug traffickers...


"Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday promised to send the U.S. military into Mexico to fight the cartels on “Day one” if he becomes the next president of the United States."
DeSantis pledges to send US military to fight cartels on ‘Day one’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4168265-desantis-pledges-to-send-us-military-to-fight-cartels-on-day-one/)

I guess he could always have a chat with someone from the DEA who might tell him where most of the USA's supply of Fentanyl comes from, though it ain't via illegals from Mexico slipping across the 'open border'...


"Fentanyl is primarily trafficked by U.S. citizens. The U.S. Sentencing Commission publishes data (https://www.ussc.gov/research/datafiles/commission-datafiles) on all federal convictions, which includes demographic information on individuals convicted of fentanyl trafficking. Figure 1 shows the citizenship status of fentanyl traffickers for 2018 to 2021. Every year, U.S. citizens receive the most convictions by far. In 2021, U.S. citizens accounted for 86.3 percent of fentanyl trafficking convictions compared to just 8.9 percent for illegal immigrants."
Fentanyl Is Smuggled for U.S. Citizens By U.S. Citizens, Not Asylum Seekers | Cato at Liberty Blog (https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Meanwhile, De Santis is going to get tough on drug traffickers...


"Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday promised to send the U.S. military into Mexico to fight the cartels on “Day one” if he becomes the next president of the United States."
DeSantis pledges to send US military to fight cartels on ‘Day one’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4168265-desantis-pledges-to-send-us-military-to-fight-cartels-on-day-one/)

I guess he could always have a chat with someone from the DEA who might tell him where most of the USA's supply of Fentanyl comes from, though it ain't via illegals from Mexico slipping across the 'open border'...


"Fentanyl is primarily trafficked by U.S. citizens. The U.S. Sentencing Commission publishes data (https://www.ussc.gov/research/datafiles/commission-datafiles) on all federal convictions, which includes demographic information on individuals convicted of fentanyl trafficking. Figure 1 shows the citizenship status of fentanyl traffickers for 2018 to 2021. Every year, U.S. citizens receive the most convictions by far. In 2021, U.S. citizens accounted for 86.3 percent of fentanyl trafficking convictions compared to just 8.9 percent for illegal immigrants."
Fentanyl Is Smuggled for U.S. Citizens By U.S. Citizens, Not Asylum Seekers | Cato at Liberty Blog (https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers)

Again, the Republican base doesn't care about that. But they'll back aggression toward Mexico under any pretense.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Again, the Republican base doesn't care about that. But they'll back aggression toward Mexico under any pretense.Completely agree they sure don't. And also agree that's exactly what they'll do.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

I didn't see the debate but cull a few remarks from the report in The Guardian

De Santis
"I’m a blue-collar kid. I work minimum wage jobs to be able to make ends meet."

-Then like any other blue collar guy, say, from West Virginia, I went to Yale, then Harvard Law School, then the Navy....keep the dream alive!

Vivek Ramaswamy
"God is real. There are two genders. Fossil fuels are a requirements for human prosperity. Reverse racism is racism. An open border is not a border. Parents determined the education of their children. That nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to man. Capitalism lifts us up from poverty. There are three branches of government, not four. And the US constitution, it is strongest guarantor of freedom in human history."

-No prosperity before the commercial development of oil and gas in the 19th century? What is the nuclear family -three wives and five children? What if parents cannot read and write?

"“Part of the problem is we also have a federal government that pays single women more not to have a man in the house than to have a man in the house, contributing to an epidemic of fatherlessness."

-Not because some guys want to get laid but not be dads? Does this guy actually live in the US?

Tim Scott
"“I had the good fortune to have a mom who worked 16-hour days, making sure we had food on our tables. She taught me that if you’re able-bodied in America, you work, if you take out a loan, you pay it back, you commit a violent crime, you go to jail. And if God made you a man, you play sports against men,” the South Carolina senator said."

-So is he going to ban mixed doubles in Tennis, Badminton, and Squash, and ban sports where men and women compete together, like Horse Racing, Equestrian events, Luge? What about Ice Skating?

Republican debate veers from abortion and fentanyl to Trump and Ukraine as Harris attacks ‘extremist agenda’ – as it happened | Republicans | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/aug/23/republican-presidential-debate-2023-candidates-trump-tucker-live-updates)

Ever get the feeling these guys are out of touch with what is happening in their own country?Yes i do get that feeling that the MAGA Party is out of touch with what happening in their own country,but they don't give a damn about what's going in the country.

[filghy2]

Ever get the feeling these guys are out of touch with what is happening in their own country?

The Republican party is no longer a political party concerned with policy. It has really become a sort of counter-cultural movement concerned with striking poses that appeal to their supporters' sense of grievance and paranoia.

Apart from Trump's continuing ascendancy, the rise of Vivek Ramaswamy is a good demonstration of this. The guy is clearly a policy airhead, but his style seems to be going over well with the Republican base.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/24/vivek-ramaswamy-gop-debate-00112752

To me he just seems like one of those annoying overconfident salespeople who won't take no for an answer, but the MAGA crowd loves this sort of brash hucksterism. I think he's been succeeding where De Santis has failed because he comes across as so confident, whereas De Santis always seems to be calculating the right thing to say.

Given Ramaswamy is probably the most pro-Trump candidate in the field the obvious question is why he's running against him. Maybe he's just angling to be VP.

[Stavros]

Given Ramaswamy is probably the most pro-Trump candidate in the field the obvious question is why he's running against him. Maybe he's just angling to be VP.



If he follows the Trump playbook, he will be calculating how much money he can make from this exposure.

[filghy2]

More on RFK's quixotic quest to run for the Democratic nomination by appealing to Republicans. As with Elon Musk, you have to wonder whether the real motivation is just to get attention and to spite those who have shunned or criticised him.

https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/9/7/23862026/robert-f-kennedy-jr-presidential-campaign-republicans

[Ben]

More on RFK's quixotic quest to run for the Democratic nomination by appealing to Republicans. As with Elon Musk, you have to wonder whether the real motivation is just to get attention and to spite those who have shunned or criticised him.

https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/9/7/23862026/robert-f-kennedy-jr-presidential-campaign-republicans

RFK Jr. Realized Primaries Are Rigged! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajjXnEaUiHo)

[Stavros]

Really, Ben, are you impressed by this incoherent garbage, or do you post this to expose the intellectual vacancy of these people? I don't know who Lee Camp is but his permanently startled mess of half-thought-up phrases signifying nothing may account for the delusions of RFK and like-minded losers that they might actually win, though what they win when they win I doubt they know.

You need only ask yourself how candidates are chosen to find the answer, because the system has been there long enough. You could be a Trotskyist, an Anarchist, a Maoist, a Nazi, a supporter of the Flat Earth Theory, but you can register as a Democrat or a Republican for the sole purpose of voting in a Primary. But even if you had a European style Party system with annual membership fees, party cards and so on, the candidates would come from a narrow field of those who meet the Party criteria, though in some cases indeed quite a few (at least in the past in the UK) candidates were known to local people as they matured from local council office to nomination for Parliament, then a selection panel and so on until they are on the short list for party members to vote for- that was the Labour Party system. The Conservative Central Office has on so many occasions 'nominated' Mrs T or Mr X for a local Conservative Association (as their party is called) that local members often feel they had no choice, because they didn't.

So stop assuming that the selection of candidates is entirely democratic, because it ain't and never has been. Does this mean the selection process is rigged? I doubt it because they don't need to rig it at all -the system is what delivers, so if you are dissatisfied, change the system, abolish these Primary and Caucus processes, and find another way for Parties to choose.

Better still, stand yourself. Find some sponsors, create a following on Tik-Tak, Mammogram or Twinker, get yourself on TV, and so on, and maybe even have a portfolio of appealing policies. Who knows where this might lead?

[filghy2]

Ben is evidently concerned about climate change, but perhaps he is unware of what RFK Jr has been saying on the subject lately.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/14/ignoring-robert-f-kennedy-jr-not-an-option

In recent interviews, he claims climate science is too complex and abstract to explain and that, “I can’t independently verify that.” He also says that the climate crisis is being used to push through “totalitarian controls on society” orchestrated “by the World Economic Forum, Bill Gates, and all of these megabillionaires”.

“In my campaign I’m not going to be talking a lot about climate. Why is that? Because climate has become a crisis like Covid that the Davos groups and other totalitarian elements in our society have used as a pretext for clamping down totalitarian controls.”

This about-face has earned him friends among the most prominent and dangerous climate-change deniers, including the Republican-aide-turned-disinformation-dealer Marc Morano, who says Kennedy is “undergoing a genuine transformation over his views on the climate agenda.” In podcast interviews, especially with rightwing hosts, RFK Jr now says he would leave energy policy to the market and describes himself as “a radical free marketeer.”

[broncofan]

If someone cannot even summarize the basics of a subject, their "theories" on that subject should not be taken seriously. RFK Jr. also said covid was engineered as an ethnic bioweapon to attack certain groups and when asked why he thinks that, said "furin cleavage site".

But why don't journalists ask him what a furin cleavage site is and why it supports his assertion? If he cannot give a careful explanation of what it is, and why it indicates covid was a bioweapon, then expose him as a charlatan. Ask him how mrna vaccines work? When asked to follow up on any of the quackery he parrots he almost always claims it's above his pay grade. If the evidence for his crazy theories is beyond his pay grade, then promoting such theories should be too.

There is a dangerously large segment of this country that thinks the death toll of covid is entirely made up. Climate change, which is supported by lots of evidence and has the potential to cause many times the damage to human populations, but which has not yet resulted in refrigerators full of bodies at emergency rooms, should be easy for them to deny.

RFK Jr. cannot be taken seriously. I'm not looking to insult anyone here but he is a serious moron and a crackpot conspiracy theorist. It's not really a matter of opinion.

[filghy2]

In the midst of criticising Biden's 'cognitive impairment' Trump warns of the risk of World War 2 and confuses Obama with Biden and Hillary Clinton.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/donald-trump-world-war-ii-joe-biden-age-2024-election/102866974

It often seems like Trump is judged by lower standards because noone expects anything from him but word salads.

[Stavros]

In the midst of criticising Biden's 'cognitive impairment' Trump warns of the risk of World War 2 and confuses Obama with Biden and Hillary Clinton.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/donald-trump-world-war-ii-joe-biden-age-2024-election/102866974

It often seems like Trump is judged by lower standards because noone expects anything from him but word salads.

But if Trump believes he saved 100 millions lives worldwide during the Covid Pandemic, that you need ID to buy a loaf of bread from a grocery store, that the 1918 Influenza Pandemic ended the First World War, then it is no surprise that when the White House lawyers told him he had lost the election in 2020 he simply did not believe them. If he believed the Earth is Flat, and was transported in a spaceship in an orbit of the Earth, one assumes he would return to Earth and still say 'the Earth is Flat'. How do you prosecute someone who insists they are always right, and that evidence is irrelevant?

Yes, he has the right to do that. But did he have the right to interfere in the election process in Georgia? Did he have the right to encourage Pence to 'delay' or 'pause' the transfer of power in Congress, or incite a mob to help him to do that? Is he so dumb he can't see the difference?
Trump says he ‘didn’t respect’ his lawyers who said he lost 2020 election | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208807-trump-says-he-didnt-respect-his-lawyers-who-said-he-lost-2020-election/)

Here in the UK, the former Prime Minister, Elizabeth Truss, is now flipping all the evidence to claim she was right and everyone else was wrong-
"The former prime minister will give a speech at the Institute for Government on Monday, almost exactly a year since her government’s “mini-budget”, which caused the pound to crash and ultimately led to her downfall (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/20/the-mini-budget-that-broke-britain-and-liz-truss).
Speaking days after it emerged that the UK economy shrank by 0.5% in July (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/13/uk-economy-shrinks-in-july-raising-fears-of-recession), Truss will say the UK’s current economic problems are not her fault."
Liz Truss: economic consensus since 1997 to blame for UK woes – not me | Liz Truss | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/17/liz-truss-speech-uk-economic-problems-left-consensus)

We seem to have a generation of politicians in power who are so detached from reality one wonders how they get through the day. I can't imagine having a sensible conversation with either Trump or Truss, but I do wish they would just shut up and go away, we have enough problems do deal with as a result of their rank incompetence, their ignorance, their devotion to themselves.

[Stavros]

An intriguing article on how Trump could lose the popular vote and the electoral college but become President through a 'Contingent Election'. Scary stuff.

Here’s the scary way Trump could win without the electoral or popular vote | Stephen Marche | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/donald-trump-could-win-contingent-election)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Interesting commentary:
https://newrepublic.com/article/175612/two-medias-trump-2024-spectacle

Excerpt:

We Have Two Medias in This Country, and They’re Going to Elect Donald Trump

It’s often asked in my circles: Why isn’t Joe Biden getting more credit for his accomplishments? As with anything, there’s no single reason. Inflation is a factor. His age is as well. Ditto the fact that people aren’t quite yet seeing the infrastructure improvements or the lower prescription drug costs.

There is no one reason. But there is one overwhelming factor in play: the media. Or rather, the two medias. It’s very important that people understand this: We reside in a media environment that promotes—whether it intends to or not—right-wing authoritarian spectacle. At the same time, as a culture, it’s consistently obsessed with who “won the day,” while placing far less value on the fact that the civic and democratic health of the country is nurtured through practices such as deliberation, compromise, and sober governance. The result is bad for Joe Biden. But it’s potentially tragic for democracy.

Let me begin by discussing these two medias. The first, of course, is what we call the mainstream media: The New York Times, The Washington Post, the major (non-Fox) news networks, a handful of other newspapers and magazines. This has also been known as the “agenda-setting media,” because historically, that’s what they did: Whatever was the lead story in The New York Times that day filtered down, through the wire services and other delivery systems, to every newspaper and television and radio station in the United States.

Then there’s an avowedly right-wing propaganda network. This got cranked up in the 1970s, when conservatives, irate over what they (not incorrectly) saw as a strong liberal bias in the mainstream media, decided to build their own. Rupert Murdoch bought the New York Post. In the 1980s, the Reverend Sun Myung Moon started The Washington Times. In the 1990s, right-wing talk radio exploded (enabled, in part, by a 2–1 decision by a judicial panel of the D.C. Court of Appeals making the Fairness Doctrine discretionary; those judges were Antonin Scalia and Robert Bork). Then the Fox News Channel was launched.

Back then, even with the launch of Fox, the mainstream media was much larger and more influential than the right-wing media. If the mainstream media was a beachball, the right-wing media was the size of a golf ball.

[Stavros]

Interesting commentary:
https://newrepublic.com/article/175612/two-medias-trump-2024-spectacle



An interesting read, from which I pluck this quote: "A media environment that doesn’t put truth above all other considerations is by definition a media environment that promotes spectacle."

Spectacle, impression management, these seem to me to dominate: they are the headlines that scream and shout that are intended to create an impression, and it doesn't matter if the facts do not support the intention. It also means that the tedious job of reporting on the implementation of policy is either ignored, when it works, or is the news when it doesn't, or doesn't seem to work. Immigration and crime are examples of the latter, inflation reduction and higher employment examples of the former.

And yet, people can tell the difference, and if it is the case that a substantial amount of voters are opposed to policy, for example on Abortion in Republican run States, then voting matters, and the ruling party could be in trouble, though one notes how Republicans -and I assume Democrats in some States too- have attempted to deal with voter diversity by diluting it, or neutering it through gerrymandered District Boundaries.

In the UK it has meant that slogans rule -'Take Back Control' was the perfect example in the Brexit campaign, implying we had lost control, thereby failing to register the actual influence the UK had had on EU policy making. 'Stop The Boats' is another, a convenient way of attacking illegal immigration by ignoring who is on those boats - 'Stop The Children' doesn't have the same effect.

But, again, there is little coherent presentation of detail in either policy formation or its implementation, and while it may often only be an impression policy has failed, on a range of issues on both sides of the Atlantic, it has. And thus, if there is a lack of detailed debate it makes that debate harder, because people respond to headlines more than details, undermining the purpose of civil society and democracy, which is to have a population engaged in the debate, inclusive, diverse and equal,

Murdoch loathes Government, he loves Markets, especially the ones he owns a large share of. It is that simple, but maybe he and his supporters should be frank about what it means -defunding the Government, scrapping the regulation of industry and business, isolating the State from international affairs.

But is this what the people want (on either side of the Atlantic)? And how will we know when we know?

[filghy2]

An intriguing article on how Trump could lose the popular vote and the electoral college but become President through a 'Contingent Election'. Scary stuff.

Here’s the scary way Trump could win without the electoral or popular vote | Stephen Marche | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/donald-trump-could-win-contingent-election)

This is not new. It's essentially what they tried to do last time - find a pretext to reject the electors chosen by the voters so the President would be chosen by a state-based vote in Congress.

[Stavros]

This is not new. It's essentially what they tried to do last time - find a pretext to reject the electors chosen by the voters so the President would be chosen by a state-based vote in Congress.

I think the procedures for a 'Contingent Election' are different from what Trump tried in 2020/21, I doubt he has a clue what it is, and I don't recall seeing it material from the 'Constitutional Expert' John Eastman.

[filghy2]

The term 'contingent election' does not appear in the Constitution, but we are talking about the procedures laid out in the 12th Amendment if no candidate has an absolute majority (270+) of Electoral College votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

This was evidently the outcome they were trying to engineer in pressuring Mike Pence to reject the electors from the states won by Biden that they were disputing.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/05/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-electoral-college/index.html

A first option – which the lawyers have told Trump is unlikely to succeed – is that expected objections to the Electoral College brought by Republican lawmakers would lead to so much gridlock that the contest is decided by the House of Representatives. That is viewed as a very remote possibility since the number of senators and representatives currently on board with raising objections is not nearly a majority.

More convincing to Trump has been an argument that after Pence listens to the objections, he refuses to certify electors from the six states that are in dispute: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.

Decertifying those six states wouldn’t make Trump the winner; instead, because neither of the candidates would meet the 270 vote threshold, Trump’s lawyers believe it would send the question to the House of Representatives. Because each state delegation (as opposed to each member) gets one vote, Trump would presumably prevail.

[Stavros]

But is it not the case, that the key point that has led to the indictments in Georgia, is that Trump had no legal argument to justify a Continent Election -there was no proof of election rigging, that votes for Trump were swapped for Biden. There were two recounts in the State and recounts in other States, and all failed to prove Trump's case, and so on. It was fantasy politics, driven by Trump's infantile resentment that he lost and could not then, and does not now accept it. That the US should have been brought so low by a selfish moron tells us more about the Republican Party and its distance from reality and the Constitution than it does about Trump, because he was a known liar and crook long before he descended the escalator in New York.

[Stavros]

And also the claim that Trump wanted to halt the counting of mail-in ballots on the night of the election. We know that Roger Stone had laid out plans to reverse the result before election night, and it may be a key component of the case in Georgia and the Jan 6th trial that Trump never intended to honour the result of the election, having decided at 10 pm on the night that he had won it and anything that happened after was 'illegitimate'. From start to finish, the man was eyeball deep in bullshit, but in touch with people like Stone, Bannon and anyone who would encourage him to lead the attack on the US.

Trump unwittingly admitted to two of the charges against him in new interview, ex-Mueller prosecutor says (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-unwittingly-admitted-two-charges-212952449.html)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Trump unwittingly admitted to two of the charges against him in new interview, ex-Mueller prosecutor says (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-unwittingly-admitted-two-charges-212952449.html)

Whether he unwittingly or wittingly admits to charges makes no difference for his supporters. He has no worries about incriminating himself, because he has yet to be held accountable for the vast majority of his crimes. (He's only lost the one civil suit so far.) He will continue to stall all prosecution, and if enough idiots vote enough Republicans into office he will escape accountability.

[filghy2]

But is it not the case, that the key point that has led to the indictments in Georgia, is that Trump had no legal argument to justify a Continent Election -there was no proof of election rigging, that votes for Trump were swapped for Biden.

They don't care. The point of the election-rigging claims was to create a figleaf to justify a legal coup, in the hope that disrupting the certification process would see the election decided by a state-based vote in the HoR or the Supreme Court.

The other objective was to convince Republican voters that the election was rigged so that Trump could retain control of the Party. In that he has obviously succeeded. If Republicans are able to block any accountability then trying to overturn election results has only upside, so why not just keep trying until you succeed?

The other thing is that they haven't paid a big electoral price for any of this. The polls are pointing to another close race. Swinging voters don't seem to be sure whether the future of democracy is a bigger concern that a temporary surge in inflation.

[Stavros]

Rafael Cruz thinks at the last minute the Democrats will swap Biden for Michelle Obama.


"Hannity asked his guest if the former first lady would want that.
“I don’t know Michelle very well,” Cruz said."
Ted Cruz Predicts Democrats Will Ditch Biden At Last Minute For This Candidate (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-predicts-democrats-ditch-105516631.html)

I wonder why? But then, what does he know?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Rafael Cruz thinks at the last minute the Democrats will swap Biden for Michelle Obama.


"Hannity asked his guest if the former first lady would want that.
“I don’t know Michelle very well,” Cruz said."
Ted Cruz Predicts Democrats Will Ditch Biden At Last Minute For This Candidate (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-predicts-democrats-ditch-105516631.html)

I wonder why? But then, what does he know?

That would be a ridiculous move, but I guess that's what I should expect from Cruz.

Scathing commentary:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ask-gop-debaters-if-they-support-trumps-open-fascism

[Stavros]

That would be a ridiculous move, but I guess that's what I should expect from Cruz.

Scathing commentary:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ask-gop-debaters-if-they-support-trumps-open-fascism

Rabbits in headlights, yet those opposed to Trump, instead of being paranoid about lising his 'base' could widen their appeal, but it seems the Party is now so utterly detached that this once upon a time obvious tactic -remember Reagan Democrats?- is now unthinkable. Would these pathetic candidates if Trump can't make it step aside so Tom Brady can square off against Michelle Obama?

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Rafael Cruz thinks at the last minute the Democrats will swap Biden for Michelle Obama.


"Hannity asked his guest if the former first lady would want that.
“I don’t know Michelle very well,” Cruz said."
Ted Cruz Predicts Democrats Will Ditch Biden At Last Minute For This Candidate (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-predicts-democrats-ditch-105516631.html)

I wonder why? But then, what does he know?The Democrats aren't doing that. Ted-Sniveling Coward-Cruz doesn't know anything expect for playing a role in trying too overturn a free and fair election,that his leader lost.

[Stavros]

A surprisingly weak assessment from Timothy Garton-Ash though he writes mostly about Europe. Yes the ‘age thing’ has traction, but he doesn’t factor in two things: 1) Trump has never, and will never be the choice of most Americans, and 2) he can only win through the electoral college, but if still there in 2024 there is the potential for Republican controlled States to use State law as changed since 2020 to select Trump regardless of the vote. This would create a crisis as deep kf not deeper than the re-election of the Disgusting Beast.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/29/unless-joe-biden-stands-aside-the-world-must-prepare-for-president-trump-20

[Stavros]

What did ‘Pro-Life’ Mike Pence say the other night?

““And if I’m president of the United States, I’m going to go to the Congress of the United States, and we’re going to pass a federal expedited death penalty for anyone involved in a mass shooting, so they will meet their fate in months, not years,” Pence said. “
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4227051-pence-calls-for-expedited-death-penalty-for-perpetrators-of-mass-shootings/

If Pence is indeed a believer in Jesus, he can only produce a couplet for any and all murderers:

‘I Love You, I Forgive You’.

In Christianity, Forgiveness is absolute, and non-negotiable.

[filghy2]

Trump is at it again. Either he thinks he beat George Bush in 2016, or that Jeb Bush was the President who invaded Iraq.
“When I came here, everyone thought Bush was going to win,” he said. “They thought Bush because Bush supposedly was a military person. Great. You know what he was a mili- ... he got us into the, uh, he got us into the Middle East. How did that work out, right?"
https://news.yahoo.com/befuddled-trump-cant-figure-bush-040026373.html

[Stavros]

Is Glenn Youngkin the nightmare from Elm St, VA-?

"Youngkin, who stands 6ft 5ins tall, cultivates the persona of a sunny suburban dad in his signature zippered red vest. He is not weighed down by the baggage of Trump’s 91 criminal charges. At 56 years old, he would represent generational change on a debate stage with 80-year-old Joe Biden (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/12/joe-biden-age-polls-democrats-2024-election). Sabato acknowledged this, saying: “He’s a nightmare for the Biden people. He projects this image that even people in the press who know better can’t help but swallow.”"
‘He’s pretty smooth’: Glenn Youngkin of Virginia may be a challenger for Trump (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pretty-smooth-glenn-youngkin-virginia-100010078.html)

[Stavros]

If Glenn Youngkin's star has slipped a little this week, here is another plug for Gavin Newsom

Newsom 2024: could the California governor be a rival to Joe Biden? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/newsom-2024-could-california-governor-110001510.html)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

If Glenn Youngkin's star has slipped a little this week, here is another plug for Gavin Newsom

Newsom 2024: could the California governor be a rival to Joe Biden? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/newsom-2024-could-california-governor-110001510.html)California Governor Gavin Newsom could definitely be a rival to President Joe Biden,if he chooses to make a run.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Surprise!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/qanon-shaman-stormed-capitol-jan-6-files-paperwork-run-congress-rcna124858

[Stavros]

Seriously? It might pass the time in a bar, but in real life?

"Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson meets with lawmakers days after speaking about a presidential run. CNN’s Tom Foreman reports on the celebrities before him who made a foray into politics."
Speculation swirls around a possible presidential run for The Rock (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/speculation-swirls-around-possible-presidential-192333589.html)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Seriously? It might pass the time in a bar, but in real life?

"Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson meets with lawmakers days after speaking about a presidential run. CNN’s Tom Foreman reports on the celebrities before him who made a foray into politics."
Speculation swirls around a possible presidential run for The Rock (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/speculation-swirls-around-possible-presidential-192333589.html) Don't need anymore celebrities with zero political experience making a run for president.

[Stavros]

Is this how the Republicans can win the White House?

How Florida’s voter suppression crucial to the GOP's edge in 2024 | Opinion (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/how-florida-s-voter-suppression-crucial-to-the-gop-s-edge-in-2024-opinion/ar-AA1kB2GC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6806dc3ff80e4c95be4ba71b40929793&ei=25)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Is this how the Republicans can win the White House?

How Florida’s voter suppression crucial to the GOP's edge in 2024 | Opinion (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/how-florida-s-voter-suppression-crucial-to-the-gop-s-edge-in-2024-opinion/ar-AA1kB2GC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6806dc3ff80e4c95be4ba71b40929793&ei=25)The MAGA Party would use every underhanded and despicable tactic in their playbook to win The White House,and don't give a damn about the consequences or who loses the right to vote,because it's all about power.

[Stavros]

No surprise that Trump keeps whining on and on about the 2020 election and now wants to revive his attempt to repeal 'Obama Care' -but now the soon-to-be-a-loser De Santis wants to get in on the act.

Wrong on 'Obama Care', wrong on Abortion, wrong on the 2020 election -does the Republican Party have anything new to say, or any policy initiatives that are going to excite the people over the next 11 months? I don't see it.

All I see and hear is moaning, shouting, insulting, and all about people, not policies. They even want to impeach Biden.

Pathetic.

DeSantis says he will replace Obamacare with a ‘better plan,’ cautions House GOP on Biden impeachment inquiry (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/desantis-says-replace-obamacare-better-182912896.html)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

No surprise that Trump keeps whining on and on about the 2020 election and now wants to revive his attempt to repeal 'Obama Care' -but now the soon-to-be-a-loser De Santis wants to get in on the act.

Wrong on 'Obama Care', wrong on Abortion, wrong on the 2020 election -does the Republican Party have anything new to say, or any policy initiatives that are going to excite the people over the next 11 months? I don't see it.

All I see and hear is moaning, shouting, insulting, and all about people, not policies. They even want to impeach Biden.

Pathetic.

DeSantis says he will replace Obamacare with a ‘better plan,’ cautions House GOP on Biden impeachment inquiry (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/desantis-says-replace-obamacare-better-182912896.html) Completely agree 1000% it is pathetic,however it isn't surprising at all because this is what Donald-Orange Menace.&.Sore Loser-Trump does best,is bitch and moan like a petulent child that he is.

[Luke Warm]

Trump doesn’t have a plan to replace Obamacare… if there was one, they would make it public. Trump ran on this in 2016, I think he’s trying to milk what he sees as a winning formula from the past. But Republicans controlled both houses of Congress during Trump’s first 2 years, and they did nothing on Obamacare. They are good at campaigning but terrible at legislating.

[Stavros]

Bend the knee, you suckers!

And guarantee to Make Trump Rich Again

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-ballot-2024-news-today-b2473409.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVj7LuVLuq8

[MrFanti]

Give me a different Democrat
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Bend the knee, you suckers!

And guarantee to Make Trump Rich Again

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-ballot-2024-news-today-b2473409.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVj7LuVLuq8That is exactly what the GOP has been doing for over 7 years.

[Luke Warm]

Give me a different Democrat
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

That was like 50 years ago. People need to be allowed to learn and grow. All of us are learning to be better. If nobody is allowed to learn and grow, this whole world is doomed.

I listened to Biden on Conan Obrien’s podcast recently. Biden said he wasn’t interested in being Obama’s running mate at the time. Biden’s mother said to him, this is the first-ever black man who could possibly become president of the United States. He’s asking you to help. Are you really going to tell him no?

I don’t love Biden, I think he is a good president but I disagree with a lot of the things he does. But one thing I’m pretty sure of, and that is that he is a decent and honorable human being.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Give me a different Democrat
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

And if one doesn't step forward you'll vote for Trump?

[MrFanti]

That was like 50 years ago. People need to be allowed to learn and grow.
And this applies to all individuals regardless of party.

That being said, I still want a different Democrat. And Biden has made enough "Black" flubs within the past 4 years to show me enough.
Put a different Democrat in office...

[filghy2]

This is who Fanti thought was the right kind of Democrat last time.


Democrat Tulsi Gabbard is a much better candidate (IMHO) than Joe Biden - hands down.

[Fitzcarraldo]

And this applies to all individuals regardless of party.

That being said, I still want a different Democrat. And Biden has made enough "Black" flubs within the past 4 years to show me enough.
Put a different Democrat in office...

Who? Biden got in because he's in the middle. A true liberal would alienate the middle and Republicans who actually have some sort of backbone and don't want to vote for Trump. Hell, Obama got elected because he was in the middle.

But hey, you can vote for Cornel West and give Trump a second term, too. Is he black enough for ya?

[filghy2]

The post that Mr Fanti made


Give me a different Democrat
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

The post that Mr Fanti seems to have neglected to make


Give me a different Republican
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/06/politics/trump-civil-war-negotiated/index.html

What does it say about this man that he's more outraged by Biden's 50-year old comments than by Trump essentially saying the US should have accepted the continued existence of slavery in the South?

[Stavros]

So Trump wins 56, 620 votes in Iowa, 51% of the registered Republicans, and 20 delegates in a State whose total population is 3,276,103 and its adult population 2,436,915. It is estimated there are more than 21 million Hogs in the State, and more than 67 Chickens. It is one of the least diverse States in the Union.

So I guess it is all 'psychological' right now...

Iowa Population 2024 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs) (worldpopulationreview.com) (https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Still the worst-case scenario. I was hoping DeSantis would come in third.

[Stavros]

In my recent post I should have written 67 Million chickens...

[Fitzcarraldo]

In my recent post I should have written 67 Million chickens...

Well, 67 million is also more than 67. :)

[filghy2]

So Trump wins 56, 620 votes in Iowa, 51% of the registered Republicans, and 20 delegates in a State whose total population is 3,276,103 and its adult population 2,436,915. It is estimated there are more than 21 million Hogs in the State, and more than 67 Chickens. It is one of the least diverse States in the Union.

So I guess it is all 'psychological' right now...

Iowa Population 2024 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs) (worldpopulationreview.com) (https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population)

They also have lots of straw you can clutch at to justify your Nikki Haley prediction. I guess you can do that for one more week, but which state is even whiter than Iowa?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-hampshire-population

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Still the worst-case scenario. I was hoping DeSantis would come in third. Indeed it sure was.

[Fitzcarraldo]

They also have lots of straw you can clutch at to justify your Nikki Haley prediction. I guess you can do that for one more week, but which state is even whiter than Iowa?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-hampshire-population

Apparently New Hampshire has open primaries, though. Non-Republicans can vote.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Not really surprised at all that the majority of GOP Voters will still vote for a Domestic Terrorist Leader,Sore Loser and Petulent Child like Donald Trump,even if he is convicted. And these are the same people who believe that Joe Biden didn't win the 2020 Election. And it also shows how Donald Trump hijacked and corrupted the Republican Party and remade it into his despicable image ,and how the majority of GOP Voters are brainwashed and will believe anything their guy says,even if it's a lie.

[Stavros]

They also have lots of straw you can clutch at to justify your Nikki Haley prediction. I guess you can do that for one more week, but which state is even whiter than Iowa?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-hampshire-population

Idaho comes close to Iowa albeit with a smaller population.

As for Haley, a lot may yet happen to Trump given the cases taking place. At the moment it looks like he will get through cases like the E Jean Carroll and just insist he is right and everyone else is wrong, court judgments be damned. A lot will depend on the Supreme Court's decision on immunity. In terms of the letter of the law, it doesn't seem possible SCOTUS will rule in Trump's favour, but certain justices may see the need to protect Trump without regard to the Constitution though if they do their reasoning will make interesting reading.

Trump is most vulnerable I think in Georgia, where there is clear evidence of the President trying to interfere with an election process to change the result in his favour, while the classified documents case is also slam dunk but may not be heard before the election.

So far Trump has been able to avoid hard questions about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. It seems clear to me he knew about Epstein's lust for young teens, but other than the claim he and Epstein raped a 13-year old in New York (see link) the more pertinent question might be to ask Trump if, knowing what he did, he informed law enforcement that a wealthy man based in New York was breaking the law.
Woman who accused Donald Trump of raping her at 13 drops lawsuit | Donald Trump | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/04/donald-trump-teenage-rape-accusations-lawsuit-dropped)

Credible Evidence Trump Raped a 13-Year-Old: To Push Trump & America Into an Empathetic Intervention - McFadden, Rev John Hugh: 9781797839097 - AbeBooks (https://www.abebooks.co.uk/9781797839097/Credible-Evidence-Trump-Raped-13-Year-Old-1797839098/plp)

Haley thus remains in pole position to win the votes of disaffected Republicans, and those intelligent enough to know she has a better chance of beating Biden, though her position on Abortion is a vote loser and this may become a key factor in the vote come November.

[filghy2]

Apparently New Hampshire has open primaries, though. Non-Republicans can vote.

All the more reason to think it may not tell us too much about her chances in most other states.

[filghy2]

As for Haley, a lot may yet happen to Trump given the cases taking place.

There's two major problems with your argument.
1. Nothing decisive seems likely to happen in the next two months, and the timetable means that he'll probably have the nomination locked up by then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
2. His popularity among Republicans has gone up since he's been indicted. Most seem very inclined to view it all as political and rationalise it away, just as they've done with January 6.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

[Stavros]

I understand the compelling argument you make -on current evidence. As for Haley, she could be losing support for the silly things that she says, whether it is her comments on the Civil War, or her latest nonsense-

"Speaking to Fox host Brian Kilmeade who asked the Republican presidential candidate whether the Republican party is racist, Haley responded, “No. We’re not a racist country. We’ve never been a racist country.”"
Ron DeSantis says Republicans will lose if Donald Trump becomes presidential nominee – US politics live (theguardian.com) (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jan/17/election-trump-desantis-haley-campaign-updates-politics-latest)

If she continues to make a fool of herself, then the irony is that Trump could succeed even though he is the greater fool, though one wonders if DeSantis can make a comeback. I am still not convinced Trump will make it to the Convention, but maybe that is wishful thinking?

[Stavros]

Oh dear, is she really this dim?

Nikki Haley Catches Heat For Response To Question About Trump Sexual Abuse (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nikki-haley-catches-heat-response-135049141.html)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Oh dear, is she really this dim?

Nikki Haley Catches Heat For Response To Question About Trump Sexual Abuse (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nikki-haley-catches-heat-response-135049141.html)

She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination.

[filghy2]

She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination.

It's Catch 22 though. If they can't win if they criticise Trump, they also can't make a case for why it should be them rather than him.

I think they were really gambling on the polls showing that Trump couldn't win a general election, but that hasn't happened.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination. Agree. Trump's base isn't going to vote for Nikki Haley,they are going to do what they always do,and that's vote for their guy the Domestic Terrorist Leader,Sore Loser and Petulent Child Donald Trump.

[Fitzcarraldo]

It's Catch 22 though. If they can't win if they criticise Trump, they also can't make a case for why it should be them rather than him.

I think they were really gambling on the polls showing that Trump couldn't win a general election, but that hasn't happened.

And he owns the party. That's what they get for enabling him in 2016. Both Haley and Christie had key roles in the administration, regardless of what they say now. Hell, Trump gave Christie COVID and Christie still waited years to say anything bad about him.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

And he owns the party. That's what they get for enabling him in 2016. Both Haley and Christie had key roles in the administration, regardless of what they say now. Hell, Trump gave Christie COVID and Christie still waited years to say anything bad about him.Completely agree Chris Christie and Nikki Haley are getting exactly what they deserve for enabling him for over 8 years, and too late for them to criticize him now since they both used work for his administration.

[Stavros]

An alternative view that argues Trump's victory in Iowa was not decisive. Crunches the numbers, worth watching

In Iowa Win There Was Also BAD News For Trump: Pulitzer winner, David Cay Johnston (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYUsYmKLXZA)

[Fitzcarraldo]

An alternative view that argues Trump's victory in Iowa was not decisive. Crunches the numbers, worth watching

In Iowa Win There Was Also BAD News For Trump: Pulitzer winner, David Cay Johnston (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYUsYmKLXZA)

It was as decisive as it could be in Iowa.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

It was as decisive as it could be in Iowa. Agree it was.

[Luke Warm]

Trump will certainly win the nomination no matter what, but Iowa was a pretty weak showing. If Biden only got 50% of the primary vote, with the remainder going to Marianne Williamson and (whatshisname from North Dakota) everyone would be freaking out right now. Plus turnout was very low. And Iowa is supposedly a Trump stronghold.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Trump will certainly win the nomination no matter what, but Iowa was a pretty weak showing. If Biden only got 50% of the primary vote, with the remainder going to Marianne Williamson and (whatshisname from North Dakota) everyone would be freaking out right now. Plus turnout was very low. And Iowa is supposedly a Trump stronghold.

Not true. It was the biggest margin of victory ever:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iowa-caucus-margin-of-victory/

[Stavros]

Not true. It was the biggest margin of victory ever:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iowa-caucus-margin-of-victory/

We appear to have two different assessments of the result.

[Fitzcarraldo]

We appear to have two different assessments of the result.

One is based on historical data.

[filghy2]

Trump will certainly win the nomination no matter what, but Iowa was a pretty weak showing. If Biden only got 50% of the primary vote, with the remainder going to Marianne Williamson and (whatshisname from North Dakota) everyone would be freaking out right now. Plus turnout was very low. And Iowa is supposedly a Trump stronghold.

That seems like a weak analogy given Trump is not the incumbent and his two main opponents are far more substantial than those two non-entities. If he'd got 51% against Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum you might have a point.

For comparison, Biden received 51.6% of the votes in Democrat primaries last time, and generally less than this in the earlier contests before most of his opponents dropped out. In South Carolina, which started his comeback, be got 49%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_ primaries

The low turnout argument for discounting the Iowa result relies on some very heroic assumptions. The obvious cause was very cold weather, so you have to assume that this mainly affected non-Trump supporters but not Trump supporters. You also have to assume the national polls showing Trump with a commanding lead among Republicans are totally wrong.

[Luke Warm]

For all practical purposes, Trump is an incumbent. He’s the presumed nominee, so to have soft support - 50% have a different 1st choice- is a bad sign. If Biden only gets 50% in a primary, as an incumbent, that’s equally bad.

The weather has nothing to do with anything. It’s cold in Iowa every winter. The issue is voter enthusiasm, weather is just a convenient excuse. Motivated voters would wait in line for 6 hours to vote (and in some places, they do). Enthusiasm is high among MAGA but that’s only 30% of voters. The voter base gets larger every year, as our population grows. But Republican turnout was lower in Iowa this year than it was in 2022, 2020 and 2016.


For comparison, Biden received 51.6% of the votes in Democrat primaries last time, and generally less than this in the earlier contests before most of his opponents dropped out.

Biden was not the incumbent, and few people expected him to win the nomination. Biden was not the presumptive nominee in 2020. Trump is the presumptive nominee this year, and always has been.

We may be talking past each other here, since it seems like you are arguing against points I’m not making. IMO Trump is 100% definitely the nominee, but at this early point in the process, his support looks weak among non-MAGA Republicans and Independents. Since national elections are won by extremely small margins, that’s a bad sign for Trump.


. You also have to assume the national polls showing Trump with a commanding lead among Republicans are totally wrong.

I don’t understand your comment. I have been saying that Trump will be the Republican nominee for basically forever. DeSantis and the other jokers never even had a chance, right from the beginning it was a doomed mission.

[filghy2]

I think you are assuming incorrectly that all my comments were directed at you, rather than other posters. It's a discussion, not a duologue.

The problem is that it's hard to find a benchmark for comparison because no defeated President has ever run again. It's true that it's not like a normal open primary, but nor is is like a normal incumbency situation because incumbents rarely have any significant internal opposition. As far as I can recall, the last time this happened was in 1980 when Ted Kennedy ran against Jimmy Carter.

[filghy2]

Biden was not the incumbent, and few people expected him to win the nomination.

Hardly. Biden was the most favoured nominee in virtually all polls, except for the period when he did badly in the early primaries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic _Party_presidential_primaries

[Stavros]

Can I suggest the issue, albeit on slim evidence so far, is that there is a decline in the number of Republicans who are choosing Trump as their nominee, even if it doesn't change the result. If this trend were to be repeated in the election, Trump yet again will fail to beat Biden on the numbers, assuming these two are the candidates.

So yet again we have to consider the Electoral College as the decisive agency, but again only if Trump has the delegates from whichever State he wins, assuming he does win them. It is not yet clear if those States that have changed the way they process the Vote will try to deny voters their choice and choose Trump delegates to go the Electoral College. It may matter in fine margins in States where the winner takes all, but it seems to me this time round that unless there is a serious decline in Biden's vote in every State, I don't see how Trump can win, though I am sure he will claim it has all been rigged if he doesn't.

Will New Hampshire tell us anything new?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Will New Hampshire tell us anything new?

If Trump doesn't dominate, it will tell us something new.

[Stavros]

If Trump doesn't dominate, it will tell us something new.

Off-Piste: I imagine some living in New Hampshire right now would rather be in Florida, but do people in Florida ever go to New Hampshire?

And, who is worse: Trump or Kinski?

The terrifying reign of Klaus Kinski, the most evil actor who ever lived (yahoo.com) (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/terrifying-reign-klaus-kinski-most-135424153.html)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Off-Piste: I imagine some living in New Hampshire right now would rather be in Florida, but do people in Florida ever go to New Hampshire?

And, who is worse: Trump or Kinski?

The terrifying reign of Klaus Kinski, the most evil actor who ever lived (yahoo.com) (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/terrifying-reign-klaus-kinski-most-135424153.html)

Kinski never controlled a government.

[Stavros]

Kinski never controlled a government.

Neither did Trump.

[filghy2]

Can I suggest the issue, albeit on slim evidence so far, is that there is a decline in the number of Republicans who are choosing Trump as their nominee, even if it doesn't change the result. If this trend were to be repeated in the election, Trump yet again will fail to beat Biden on the numbers, assuming these two are the candidates.

The key question is whether those who were supporting other candidates will turn out for Trump now their first choices have dropped out. He should get almost all of Ramaswamy's supporters given he's very MAGA. De Santis was also running as MAGA, but more competent and less baggage, so I think it's likely Trump will get the majority of his supporters as well.

I know you are an incorrigible wishful thinker, but it's interesting that you are so intent on looking for signs of weakness in Trump's support while ignoring all the signs of weakness on Biden's side. The polls are showing Trump leading in the key swing states, while most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Neither did Trump.

Kinski never had nuclear codes.

[Fitzcarraldo]

most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

This message gets hammered over and over in the media, yet no one suggests an alternative. If not Biden, then who?

[Stavros]

The key question is whether those who were supporting other candidates will turn out for Trump now their first choices have dropped out. He should get almost all of Ramaswamy's supporters given he's very MAGA. De Santis was also running as MAGA, but more competent and less baggage, so I think it's likely Trump will get the majority of his supporters as well.

I know you are an incorrigible wishful thinker, but it's interesting that you are so intent on looking for signs of weakness in Trump's support while ignoring all the signs of weakness on Biden's side. The polls are showing Trump leading in the key swing states, while most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

I understand the thrust of your post, but I would still suggest that Trump cannot win the popular vote, because there is no evidence that it has increased since 2020.

There are some as yet unknown factors, the most obvious being the court cases that one hopes will be dealt with before November. Another is that I am not sure we know yet if those States that have changed the way they process elections would dare to so brazenly find ways to give Trump the Electoral College delegates if he has clearly lost, setting aside any claims of rigging he will undoubtedly make.

The polls mean little, because they merely reflect some opinion right now. Theresa May was persuaded to hold a General Election in 2017 when the polls gave her party a clear lead. She led a catastrophic campaign that trashed the Commons majority she had and left her with a hung Parliament that crushed her career. The polls were wrong.

Yes, Republicans have learned what went wrong in 2020 and may find ways to reduce Democrat voters by shredding the polls, but the fact remains that Trump must gain millions of new voters to stand a chance of taking States.

If Biden has a weakness, it is his lack of charisma. On the other hand, they both have records on which to stand, and Biden's record is superior to Trump's, though whether or not the broadcast media and other sources underline this I cannot say. The opportunity for Trump to alienate people through his Hubris - if he is the nominee he will declare himself President before a single vote has been cast- could turn people off, while Biden retains his dignity.

Another unknown is whether the 'youth vote' if there is such a thing, will be challenged because of the age of the two candidates, because of the US support for Israel -probably less of a factor than some think in terms of outcome- but I have heard on tv elderly Republicans who don't like Trump say they will just stay home, and that could be something some younger votes do too.

It is too early to say, and too many rogue factors may yet flip what some think, or want to be a re-match. But I stand by my basic point: Trump begins from a position of weakness, and I don't see any strengths in his voter support, I see no significant growth, it is as static and stagnant as his brain.

[filghy2]

This message gets hammered over and over in the media, yet no one suggests an alternative. If not Biden, then who?

If Biden announced he wasn't running again alternatives would emerge. I don't think too many thought Bill Clinton or Obama would be two-term Presidents when they announced their candidacies. Do you really think the Democrat Party is in such poor shape that it has no alternative to running an 80 year old with a 38% approval rating?

Even if you discount the polls showing Trump leading in swing states, it's hardly a good reflection on Biden that an opponent with so many negatives is competitive only 10 months out. Trump won't win the popular vote, but that's irrelevant. Lack of enthusiasm for Biden won't help Democrat turnout and he seems to have lost a lot of support from Independents.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-leads-biden-with-independent-voters-by-11-points-poll/ar-AA1ncndR

The big problem with Biden isn't lack of charisma, it's age. He seems to lack mental sharpness and energy and that's only going to get worse through a gruelling campaign and then four more years if he was to win. Most of the current problems may have been due to circumstances beyond his control, but too often he comes across as passive and ineffectual in response. Successful Presidents tend to be defined by how well they respond to adverse developments.

I think the other big problem for Biden is that real wages (after inflation) have fallen over his Presidency, whereas they rose over Trump's term. This may explain a lot of Biden's weakness among Independents and why they may have a rosier view of the economy under Trump, notwithstanding the Covid recession.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_hourly_earnings

I don't like Trump any more than you guys, but beating him will require hard-headedness, not wishful thinking. Trump has benefited consistently from opponents underestimating his chances and taking solace in explanations about why he was finished or couldn't win. This seems to be happening again.

[Fitzcarraldo]

If Biden announced he wasn't running again alternatives would emerge. I don't think too many thought Bill Clinton or Obama would be two-term Presidents when they announced their candidacies. Do you really think the Democrat Party is in such poor shape that it has no alternative to running an 80 year old with a 38% approval rating?

The primary process has already begun. There have been no credible challengers. Again, who? If someone wants to step up and lead, where the hell are they?

Joe Biden is old?! This is the first I've ever heard it mentioned!

[KnightHawk 2.0]

This message gets hammered over and over in the media, yet no one suggests an alternative. If not Biden, then who?Completely agree it sure does,because they calling can't come up with any alternatives. And also the media keeps forgetting The Republican Nominee Donald Trump is old as well.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Ron DeSantis cancelled his campaign for president,and bent the knee and his leader Donald Trump's ass by endorsing him.

[filghy2]

The primary process has already begun. There have been no credible challengers. Again, who? If someone wants to step up and lead, where the hell are they?

That's a circular argument because credible challengers almost never run against an incumbent. The odds are against them winning and they'll risk splitting the party and losing the general election. This has happened every time an incumbent has faced a serious challenge in recent history (1968, 1976 and 1980).
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-2024-primary_n_6503225de4b0800d579d8f64

I'm not suggesting that someone should have challenged Biden, but that he should have recognised the realities of his age and bowed out voluntarily last year. The argument that nobody else could beat Trump may have been credible in 2020 but it doesn't seen credible now.

[filghy2]

The polls mean little, because they merely reflect some opinion right now.

Here's a fact for you. No US President with an approval rating as low as Biden's at this stage of the cycle has won reelection since Harry S Truman. Scroll down for the comparative charts.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[Fitzcarraldo]

The argument that nobody else could beat Trump may have been credible in 2020 but it doesn't seen credible now.

Who could beat Trump? Give me a name of a Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024. Not one has stepped up.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Here's a fact for you. No US President with an approval rating as low as Biden's at this stage of the cycle has won reelection since Harry S Truman. Scroll down for the comparative charts.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Yet Truman won, and he wasn't running against someone who had tried to overthrow the government.

You can find stats to support any angle you wish to take. The 2022 midterms did not go as the polls predicted. They also did not match previous midterms. Biden had a low approval rating then, but Democrats retained control of the Senate and Republicans only just gained a majority in the House.

[Stavros]

Who could beat Trump? Give me a name of a Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024. Not one has stepped up.

Joe Biden!

[Stavros]

More on the numbers

"GOP senators say there is less enthusiasm for former President Trump among Republican-leaning voters compared to 2016, a drop in voter energy that was apparent when only 15 percent of Iowa’s registered Republicans showed up for Monday’s caucuses"...
Senate GOP fears drop in Trump enthusiasm, energy (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/senate-gop-fears-drop-trump-110000358.html)

But as the link also argues, voter enthusiasm could be a factor in the turnout -but who does this benefit in the swing states?

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Who could beat Trump? Give me a name of a Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024. Not one has stepped up.The President Of The United States Joe Biden.

[filghy2]

The 2022 midterms did not go as the polls predicted.

Wrong. The polls overall were reasonably accurate, but most pundits chose to ignore them because of historical experience.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

Over-extrapolating from single data points is not usually a good idea.

[filghy2]

Who could beat Trump? Give me a name of a Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024. Not one has stepped up.

According to this poll a generic Democrat could do 12% points better than Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/06/an-ominous-poll-democrats-what-it-says-about-biden-alternative/

[filghy2]

Joe Biden!

Aren't you the same guy who was previously bemoaning the fact that both parties couldn't find younger and better candidates than Biden and Trump?

[Fitzcarraldo]

According to this poll a generic Democrat could do 12% points better than Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/06/an-ominous-poll-democrats-what-it-says-about-biden-alternative/

Name a viable Democratic candidate. We can't vote for a generic candidate. Seems to me that stepping forward to run for office is an essential quality of leadership.

[filghy2]

You are sounding like Mr Fanti - repeating the mantra "but nobody's stepped forward" and ignoring the counter-argument that they would if Biden stepped aside. Are you seriously saying that if Biden had a heart attack tomorrow there would be no viable alternative?

Here's some possibilities that were mentioned previously.


When it comes to the Democrats, here are some possible candidates. Whoever it is, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea if the candidate was a governor. Someone who has experience running an executive branch of government. The candidate should also be in the age range of 45-70.

Governor Gavin Newsome (CA). He is 55 and been the governor of California since 2019. From what I can tell, he is popular with the progressive wing of the party and I can see him going toe to toe with Ron De Santis or Trump because he is a little bit of a prick and I think that is what you need sometimes in politics. The only downside is, I don't see how would do in the middle of parts of the country in a general election.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (MI). If the Democrats are going to stay in the White House in 2024 and beyond, they're going to need the win the state of Michigan. She has been the governor since 2019 and she won her reelection campaign defeating a MAGA Republican. The plus side is she is a woman. The downside is, she is a white woman and I can already see some issues a rising if she has to face Kamala Harris in the primaries.

Governor Phil Murphy (NJ). He is 65 and although he narrowly won reelection last year, he seems to have rebounded and doing a good job in 68. The only downside he is not well known outside of the tri-state area (New York, NJ, and Connecticut) and the fact that he is from the east coast may cost him votes in the middle of the country. The same goes for the Governor Ned Lamont (CT), who did a great job running his state during the pandemic and the recovery process.

[Fitzcarraldo]

You are sounding like Mr Fanti - repeating the mantra "but nobody's stepped forward" and ignoring the counter-argument that they would if Biden stepped aside. Are you seriously saying that if Biden had a heart attack tomorrow there would be no viable alternative?

Here's some possibilities that were mentioned previously.

I've repeated the question because I haven't seen an answer.

If it's so obvious any other candidate would do better, why is it so hard to identify one? Of course people would choose an imaginary ideal candidate over reality.

If Biden had a heart attack tomorrow, I'm not sure there would be a viable alternative, because no one has stepped forward.

Newsome has said repeatedly that he supports Biden and is not interested in running at this time. He's one of very few Democrats who has actually supported Biden unequivocally. And the simple fact that he is from California would alienate lots of swing voters.

I've heard of no presidential aspirations from Whitmer. I've never even heard of Murphy.

[Stavros]

Aren't you the same guy who was previously bemoaning the fact that both parties couldn't find younger and better candidates than Biden and Trump?

I think I was. But my post was about the contest between Biden and Trump. Of course I would prefer a generational change in the US, but it is not my country and it is up to the Americans to get a grip. It matters to the rest of us for all the usual international political and economic reasons, plus, though it is not my favourite country -Canada in that region wins all the contests- I don't want to see the US decline under a lunatic like Trump or his supporters, because I fear a degree of social conflict in the US becoming more common and violent.

A deeper view concerns the fate of Liberal Democracy, a set of political views and arrangements that has created a political space for people that in so many other systems are closed off, banned, or become arenas of violence and hate. It is not perfect, and it has of course evolved since the days of Hobbes and Locke, but it is when compared to the alternatives that one sees the importance of having both stable government based on the rule of law, and civil society free to act without the interference of the State.

In these fraught times, and as a riposte to morons like Trump, but also New Wave Fascists like the late Roger Scruton (an Orban fan) I link the lecture Quentin Skinner gave in Stanford which offers an explanation of 'our' political heritage and why it matters so much. The lecture itself is just over an hour, and is typical of the kind of clear presentation Skinner is famous for, being one of four outstanding political philosopher from the UK (followed by Alan Ryan, John Gray and John Dunn).

A Genealogy of Liberty: A Lecture by Quentin Skinner - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjQ-W2-fKUs)

[filghy2]

If Biden had a heart attack tomorrow, I'm not sure there would be a viable alternative, because no one has stepped forward.

I guess they'd have to prop him up like in Weekend at Bernies, then. According to your logic, the only alternatives would be Marianne Wilkinson and Dean Phillips.

[Fitzcarraldo]

I guess they'd have to prop him up like in Weekend at Bernies, then. According to your logic, the only alternatives would be Marianne Wilkinson and Dean Phillips.

And your alternative seems to be anyone but Biden, which is incredibly naive. Biden got elected because he was essentially the ultimate compromise Democrat, and he pretty much remains that.

[Stavros]

This sums up the problem with Trump voters: a man who not only used the Office of President to enrich himself and his family through more visits to his own golf courses than any other President in history, and the 'Abraham Accords' which really were just Jared Kushner's business deal; and the mere idea he is out there for the 'people' when he has nothing but contempt for the American people and their political system.

If she can't see what is right in front of her, if she is prepared to simply ignore the facts, how can one persuade her or people like her to vote for a better person? The only consolation may be that she remains in a minority of Americans, but a minority that can affect election outcomes in swing states. Depressing.

"Tina Lorenz, who said she had supported Donald Trump since 2016, was among those who voted for the former president on Tuesday.“He is representing the American people. He is not out for himself. He’s not out for political gain. He’s not out for financial reasons. He doesn’t need money, he doesn’t need fame and fortune. He already has all of that,” Lorenz, 63, said.
“He is out there for the average person. And that’s what’s happening, we’ve become so polarized, that there’s nobody out there for just regular people.”"
Trump takes aim at Haley in combative New Hampshire primary victory speech | Donald Trump | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/23/trump-wins-new-hampshire-primary)

[filghy2]

And your alternative seems to be anyone but Biden, which is incredibly naive. Biden got elected because he was essentially the ultimate compromise Democrat, and he pretty much remains that.

Nice straw man, but that isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that if Biden pulled out some viable alternative would most likely emerge. I don't know why it's so hard to understand that what people say and do when Biden is running doesn't necessarily tell us what they would do if he pulled out. Is it news to you that politicians often change their tune when circumstances change?

Anyway, this is hypothetical as he's not going to pull out.

You don't seem to want to acknowledge this, Biden has many more negatives this time. His age is obviously a bigger negative than 4 years ago. He's the incumbent so, rightly or wrongly, he's copping blame for everything that's gone wrong on his watch. Last time he had the advantage of running against the incumbent in the midst of a recession and mass Covid deaths.

Let's not forget that it was a narrow win in electoral college terms. If 43,000 votes in three states had gone the other way Trump would be President. If that had happened, would you be saying now that Biden was the only viable candidate?

If you want to invoke the mid-term result, let me remind you that Democracts actually lost their HoR majority (and lost the popular vote by 2.8%). It only looks like a success compared to expectations of a red wave. It's not clear whether this would translate into an electoral college majority.

Also, don't forget that polling error can go both ways. The polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020.

I know that Trump has many negatives, but so does Biden. I'm not saying Biden can't win, but it looks like 50:50 at best, maybe 45:55. It looks like an election that will depend on which side's former voters are most disillusioned.

[Fitzcarraldo]

You don't seem to want to acknowledge this, Biden has many more negatives this time. His age is obviously a bigger negative than 4 years ago. He's the incumbent so, rightly or wrongly, he's copping blame for everything that's gone wrong on his watch. Last time he had the advantage of running against the incumbent in the midst of a recession and mass Covid deaths.
...

I know that Trump has many negatives, but so does Biden. I'm not saying Biden can't win, but it looks like 50:50 at best, maybe 45:55. It looks like an election that will depend on which side's former voters are most disillusioned.

You're not saying anything everyone doesn't know. I never said Biden was a lock. My comments were about the hypothetical alternative. Reality is what matters. Absent a viable alternative to Biden on the Democratic ticket, hypothetical desires mean nothing. We're into election year now. The primary process has begun. It's too late to mount a new campaign.

It doesn't matter if voters don't want a Biden/Trump rematch. Reality is that's what they're likely to get. We have to deal with reality.

I'm not arguing that Biden will coast to easy victory because everyone loves him and age doesn't matter. I'm saying if it's Biden or Trump, people need to vote for the one who isn't promising to be a dictator (even if he's old).

[Stavros]

Two contrasting views of the New Hampshire result, both in the Brexit paper the Telegraph-

Gingrich as you would expect doesn't much care for the nuances of the vote.
Trump will be the next President. Get over it (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-next-president-over-112900468.html)

The other digs into the stats to suggest it is not all over for the Comet, eg

"The results in New Hampshire’s GOP primary (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary-2024-haley-trump-latest-updates/) on Tuesday night seem to support that and exposed the limits to Mr Trump’s appeal.With more than 90 per cent of votes counted, Mr Trump had won 54.8 per cent to Ms Haley’s 43.2 per cent.

But Ms Haley (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/23/nikki-haley-us-election-republican-primary-vice-trump/) won self-described moderate voters by a three-to-one margin, according to a CNN exit poll. She won a large majority of voters opposed to a national abortion ban. She also won among college-educated voters, exit polls suggest. All groups that could be crucial in November.

Most worrying of all for Mr Trump, almost half of Republican primary voters - 44 per cent - said the former president would not be fit to re-enter the Oval Office if he is convicted of a crime (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/24/trump-election-prison-campaign-2024-pardon-jail/). Ms Haley won 84 per cent of those voters.

The 52-year-old argues she can build on those numbers, replicating the broad coalition of support she has assembled in the next few states to vote."
Nikki Haley has exposed Trump's weaknesses (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/haley-exposed-trumps-weaknesses-she-055925532.html)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Forty-eight more states have to weigh in yet. It's really sad that the primary process could be over after the first two rounds.

[filghy2]

The other digs into the stats to suggest it is not all over for the Comet

As I said, you are an incorrigible wishful thinker. New Hampshire is a relatively educated liberal state, and they have open primaries. According to reports, half of those who voted in the Republican primary were not registered Republicans. If Nikki Haley couldn't win there, she has no chance elsewhere.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-new-hampshire-republicans-see-bidens-2020-win-illegitimate-exit-poll-2024-01-23/

[filghy2]

These are the current betting odds on the Presidency:
Trump 43.6%
Biden 33%
Michelle Obama 7%
Newsom 4.8%
Haley 3.8%
Kennedy 3.4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

Interesting that 23% of betting money is for someone other than Trump or Biden.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Interesting that 23% of betting money is for someone other than Trump or Biden.

Have fun getting 270 electoral votes with 23%.

[filghy2]

More analyis of the New Hamphire primaries here - some bad news for everyone, it seems. Trump - lack of support from independents and moderates; Haley - lack of support from conservatives; Biden - lack of enthusiasm from Democrats.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/24/new-hampshire-results-analysis-00137715

[Fitzcarraldo]

Clearly we're doomed.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Heather Cox Richardson is a historian who offers non-hysterical political commentary. Here's her latest:
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-24-2024

Excerpt:

Curiously, what happened to Trump in New Hampshire was what, before the election, pundits suggested could and maybe should happen to President Joe Biden: a challenger would show that he was weak going into the 2024 election.
Instead, despite dirty-trickster robocalls in a fake Biden voice telling Democratic voters not to show up vote for Biden, he appears to be on track to win 65% of the vote as a write-in candidate—he wasn’t on the ballot—while Representative Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, who were on the ballot, together appear to have garnered just under 25%.
On Monday, Miranda Nazzaro of The Hill reported that the creator of ChatGPT banned a super PAC backing Phillips for misusing AI for political purposes. Billionaire Bill Ackman, who has been in the news lately for his fight against diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, attacks on former Harvard president Claudine Gay, and threats to media outlets that pointed out plagiarism in his wife’s doctoral dissertation, donated $1 million to Phillips’s super PAC.
There was other good news for the Biden camp today, too. Sign-ups for the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have surged by 80% under Biden, with a record 21 million people enrolling this year. Trump has promised to get rid of the program, saying that “Obamacare Sucks!!!” and that he will replace it with something better, but neither now nor in his four years in office did he produce a plan.

[filghy2]

Heather Cox Richardson is a historian who offers non-hysterical political commentary. Here's her latest:
https://heathercoxrichardson.substac...anuary-24-2024

Your balanced commentator completely missed the rather important point that most of Nikki Haley's votes came from non-Republicans.
"I fall into the category of observers who see bad news: more than 45% of Republican primary voters—those most fervent about the party—chose someone other than Trump."

According to this article, 70% of Trump's voters were registered Republicans, but only 27% of Haley's. That implies Trump won around 75% of registered Republicans.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/70-percent-of-haley-voters-in-new-hampshire-were-not-registered-republicans-cnn-exit-poll/ar-BB1hcmF3

On the Democrat side, the Biden write-in won 65% of the vote. I haven't seen any numbers on the share of non-registered Democrats, but it's not clear on the face of it that his was a more impressive result than Trump's, especially given Dean Phillips is a lower-profile candidate than Nikki Haley.

[Fitzcarraldo]

On the Democrat side, the Biden write-in won 65% of the vote. I haven't seen any numbers on the share of non-registered Democrats, but it's not clear on the face of it that his was a more impressive result than Trump's, especially given Dean Phillips is a lower-profile candidate than Nikki Haley.

It's not impressive that someone who wasn't on the ballot won 65% of the vote? And there were even fake robocalls using his voice urging people not to vote?

OK.

Sorry, but Heather Cox Richardson has much better credentials regarding American politics than you do. I realize you feel compelled to argue about everything, but sometimes you're just silly.

[filghy2]

It's not impressive that someone who wasn't on the ballot won 65% of the vote?

How would anyone know whether 65% was impressive or not without a benchmark for comparison? Has there been any previous case of a write-in for an incumbent?

Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.

[Stavros]

Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.

So why isn't Trump getting 80% of the vote so far?

[filghy2]

So why isn't Trump getting 80% of the vote so far?

Trump is not the incumbent President. There's an element of truth in saying he effectively is to most Republicans, but it's an over-simplification to take it 100% literally.

100% of Democrat voters think Biden is the legitimately-elected President. It seems reasonable to think he should be getting over 80%, especially when his opponents are relative nobodies.

Around two-thirds of Republican voters apparently believe Trump really won the 2020 election. That still leaves one-third who don't see him as the incumbent. Hence, it's not an equivalent situation.

[Fitzcarraldo]

TIt seems reasonable to think he should be getting over 80%, especially when his opponents are relative nobodies.

Not in a primary. Not in a general election. Eighty percent is an insanely high margin in any type of election. Have you ever witnessed a landslide of that magnitude in your country?

[filghy2]

Not in a primary. Not in a general election. Eighty percent is an insanely high margin in any type of election. Have you ever witnessed a landslide of that magnitude in your country?

Obviously, I was talking about primaries where there's an incumbent President, not general elections.


Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.

FYI
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[Stavros]

A more general point, and I have probably made it before, is that the party system in the US lends itself to these expensive campaigns, and doesn't even make sense when, as in New Hampshire, people who don't vote for one party can take part in choosing the candidate of another. They are going to have that choice in a formal election.

What strikes me then is that this process is a staggering waste of money, and is a form of duplication of the General Election before it takes place, and I think the time has come for Americans to ask if there is no other way for parties to choose their candidates.

[filghy2]

The modern US primary system only started after 1968, prompted by anti-war activists who were angry about the selection of Hubert Humphrey. Up to that time there were primaries in some states, but mostly the candidate was decided by party officials.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/13/disgusted-with-politics-blame-geoffrey-cowan-00135381

Party democracy is good in theory, but the problem in practice is that few people join political parties these days and those who do are more likely to be zealous in their views. This often results in candidates who are too extreme.

A good system might be something like that used by the Australian Labour Party. They give a 50:50 weighting to votes of both the party MPs and party membership.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders_of_the_Australian_Labor_Party

[Stavros]

Thanks for the link. I think that in the end the question is -do people get the politicians they want, or get the politicians they deserve? I am not sure the answer is positive in either case! Politicians for the most part are people who want to be in public life, for whatever reason. I can see why a caucus or primary is one means of finding out if the people are interested, but why go through the process in effect, twice over? Whatever. Maybe the deeper question is whether or not more people not qualified for public office are seeking it, because they are corrupt, because they have extreme views, or maybe just lack the intelligence.

There have been statements of staggering unintelligence from British politicians -Dominic Raab when he was 'Brexit Secretary' expressed surprise at the importance of the Dover-Calais route for trade. When Theresa May appointed Karen Bradley (who?) as Northern Ireland Secretary Bradley admitted before going there she did not know the place was so sectarian that Unionists did not vote for Nationalists and Nationalists did not vote for Unionists. And she had responsibility for Government policy in the province!

[Stavros]

Intriguing book review. One wonders if people like Vance and Stafanik are ever going to produce the hard evidence to prove the 2020 election produced the wrong result, heaven knows Trump has failed to do so in 3 and a half years. Is it not time for these people to put up or shut up?

And can a State really just stop people voting?

How to Steal a Presidential Election review: Trump and the peril to come (yahoo.com) (https://uk.style.yahoo.com/steal-presidential-election-review-trump-070038067.html)

[Stavros]

The link below is to a rather long article on the financial problems the Republican Party is going through, from the party in States exhausting their funds on pointless election recounts, to the more obvious one-way traffic of cash from the party to its supreme leader, Trump. Although some States are doing well, ag Florida, others may struggle to mount a campaign if all the money the party has goes to fund Trump's lawyers, while on some States, like Michigan, the Party seems to be at war with itself rather than the Democrats.

But the most interesting bit is the tv interview with Lara Trump, who may become part of the RNC leadership team. For when asked what the Party needs to do to be more competitive with the Democrats, in view of the results of the mid-terms, she does not mention a single policy, but is only concerned with voter registration, embracing early voting, and thus on the election procedures, as if there was not a long list of the priorities most Americans have. And then she makes it clear that the only priority is to elect Donald Trump as President.

But if the whole purpose of the Party is focused on one man, how can they secure the Senate and the House? If they cannot put together a set of coherent policies, be it on the Border/Immigration, the Cost of Living, Law and Order -issues that concern most people most of the time, they have only one mission, to please the supreme leader.

Let us hope this ends this year, it is tiring, like those in the UK with their 'Bring Boris Back' or the desperate attempt to re-habilitate Liz Truss. But when I look at the landscape of political choices around the world, it is not just the US that I find mired in confusion and with an alarming indifference to what an open Democracy is, and could be.

Anyway the link is here-
The Truth About Trump’s RNC Shakeup—and Why the GOP Will Suffer (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/truth-trump-rnc-shakeup-why-094025392.html)

[Stavros]

To add to the above, is this savage but accurate depiction of the Republican Party by a former party strategist, Stuart Stevens, concerned the party has made no effort to widen its electoral base, and is even irrelevant to most people's needs-

""A party led by a rapist that believes it can fix its problem with women by attacking Taylor Swift, with weird little creeps like Mike Johnson as a public face in Congress, that has no serious policy, that has decided to abandon decades of support for freedom in Europe to back a genocidal dictator, a party that is 85% white in a 59% white country, a party that has decided higher education is a gateway drug to Socialism, that believes public health policy should be set by random freaks on the internet and not doctors, a party that is still fighting cultural wars of gender politics the rest of America ended a decade ago, a party that has replaced American optimism with anger and fear of the future," he stated."
'A party led by a rapist': Ex-GOP strategist delivers brutal diagnosis for party's losses (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-party-led-by-a-rapist-ex-gop-strategist-delivers-brutal-diagnosis-for-party-s-losses/ar-BB1ihGsc?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ACTS&cvid=b6451d5e2f1f49b8c90c3bc07dd67e1e&ei=26)

[Stavros]

So far, an election of contradictions, as the article by Simon Tisdall linked below demonstrates: Americans concerned at the war in Gaza, and simultaneously weary of the US getting involved in foreign conflicts, while Trump plays to the Isolationist crowd who want an 'America First' agenda. So too, as the other poll shows, Biden's administration achieves more positive things than he gets credit for, while the man himself cannot rely on that success for a personal vote.

The danger is that the US sits out global conflict in the 2020s much as it did the 1920s, giving space for dictators to do what they want, with terrible consequences, as we can already see in Ukraine. There is still a long way to go before November, and maybe something dramatic will change the agenda: Trump and Biden both vulnerable -so who has the best Plan B?

The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/big-change-between-2020-2024-163929278.html)

The US as defender of democracy won’t win votes. Donald Trump gets it, but Joe Biden doesn’t | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/02/the-us-as-defender-of-democracy-will-not-win-votes-trump-gets-it-biden-does-not)

[Stavros]

The sad fact is that there are no surprises that this man expresses these opinions and gets selected to run for high office. It is the measure of how far the Republican Party has vacated what used to be called the 'centre ground' of politics to occupy the outer space of offensiveness. We have extremists in the UK, but the most they get is a council seat somewhere no=one other than the locals has ever heard of, and are largely ineffective. And those who have climbed high, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, have fallen just as far.

Do Americans really want this?

"North Carolina (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/north-carolina) Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/mark-robinson) revels in making offensive remarks – with a history that includes comparing abortion to slavery, quoting Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, and referring to LGBT+ people as “filth”. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/super-tuesday-key-results-down-ballot-b2507675.html)"
He quoted Hitler. He called LGBT people ‘filth’. And now he could become North Carolina’s next governor | The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/north-carolina-governor-mike-robinson-b2507965.html)

[Stavros]

Third Party or really 'No Party' candidates listed here-

Third party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_and_independent_candidates_for_the_202 4_United_States_presidential_election)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The sad fact is that there are no surprises that this man expresses these opinions and gets selected to run for high office. It is the measure of how far the Republican Party has vacated what used to be called the 'centre ground' of politics to occupy the outer space of offensiveness. We have extremists in the UK, but the most they get is a council seat somewhere no=one other than the locals has ever heard of, and are largely ineffective. And those who have climbed high, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, have fallen just as far.

Do Americans really want this?

"North Carolina (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/north-carolina) Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/mark-robinson) revels in making offensive remarks – with a history that includes comparing abortion to slavery, quoting Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, and referring to LGBT+ people as “filth”. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/super-tuesday-key-results-down-ballot-b2507675.html)"
He quoted Hitler. He called LGBT people ‘filth’. And now he could become North Carolina’s next governor | The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/north-carolina-governor-mike-robinson-b2507965.html) Hell to the no,most americans doesn't want someone who a homophobic,transphobic,right wing loving toxic pile of shit and sexist creep like Mark Robinson,who is Donald Trump 2.0 to be the next governor of North Carolina.

[Stavros]

After the election, some policies and actions not to wish or hope for, unless you admire Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller and others in their orbit (but not Obit...)

Personnel, dismantling democracy, and immigration: What a second Trump term might look like according to his closest right-wing media advisers | Media Matters for America (https://www.mediamatters.org/steve-bannon/personnel-dismantling-democracy-and-immigration-what-second-trump-term-might-look)

[blackchubby38]

Forty-eight more states have to weigh in yet. It's really sad that the primary process could be over after the first two rounds.

I also don't think its healthy for one's psyche. Whether it be an individual's or the nation's. I mean let's put this in perspective. Now that the primary process is indeed over after two rounds, that means both Biden and Trump will be running a general election campaign for the next 6 months.

So my thinking is going to be this. I'm going to put the 2024 Election out of mind as much as humanly possible, show up on Election day, vote for Biden, and hope he is doesn't expire in office. Or after 90 days, he has a change of heart and resigns from office.

[Stavros]

I also don't think its healthy for one's psyche. Whether it be an individual's or the nation's. I mean let's put this in perspective. Now that the primary process is indeed over after two rounds, that means both Biden and Trump will be running a general election campaign for the next 6 months.

So my thinking is going to be this. I'm going to put the 2024 Election out of mind as much as humanly possible, show up on Election day, vote for Biden, and hope he is doesn't expire in office. Or after 90 days, he has a change of heart and resigns from office.

So if there is a tv 'debate' between Biden and Trump you won't watch it? But will there be such a programme on tv? Could either one refuse to share a platform with the other?

[Stavros]

After three and half years is it not time for Trump and the others to show proof that the 2020 election was rigged? Its like saying Elvis is not dead, but not being able to bring the guy in front of a camera to speak to the Nation.

And how can election rules differ not just from State to State, but in Counties?

"The experience of trying to vet the wild misinformation that shaped the Trump campaign’s perception of reality has left Block keen not just to speak out about the bogus premises used by his former employers to try and overturn the election. It’s also turned him into an advocate for reforming an election system whose complexities he believes can help provide fuel for such bogus conspiracy theories.
He points to dead voters — a frequent source of false claims about voter fraud — as an example.
“If you have the misfortune of dying before the Election Day, does your vote count or does it not count?” Block asks. “It depends on which state you live in and sometimes on which county you live in within a specific state. Shouldn’t this situation have the same outcome everywhere in the country?”"
Trump’s Voter Fraud Expert Shot Down His Campaign’s Election Lies (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-voter-fraud-expert-shot-162735056.html)

[blackchubby38]

So if there is a tv 'debate' between Biden and Trump you won't watch it? But will there be such a programme on tv? Could either one refuse to share a platform with the other?

No. I didn't watch any of the debates in 2020 either.

I think if there are debates, they most likely will be televised. But I think Biden is already laying down the groundwork for not participating in them.

It will be interesting to see though given what the Republican National convention will mostly look like, does any television network take an unprecedented step and not televise them. Or at very least, portions, if not all of Trump's acceptance speech.

[Stavros]

No. I didn't watch any of the debates in 2020 either.

I think if there are debates, they most likely will be televised. But I think Biden is already laying down the groundwork for not participating in them.

It will be interesting to see though given what the Republican National convention will mostly look like, does any television network take an unprecedented step and not televise them. Or at very least, portions, if not all of Trump's acceptance speech.

Is it Biden who doesn't want the debates, or Trump? Depending on the dates, he might be on Tv the day after a 'difficult' day in Court. He talks loudly, but often ducks the heavy duty stuff.

[Stavros]

This detailed article from Rolling Stone should give cause for concern to those who think the election in 2024 may not be won or lost by the people who vote, but those who count it -or have the power to certify or not certify, and who so far in previous elections have refused even when they are legally obliged to do so, but don't care about the law. At the very least, if they kick into action in November, it might not be January before there are definitive results after legal challenges, etc.

Can the Certification in Congress, and the date of the Inauguration be changed?

Election Deniers Are Taking Over Election Boards Around the Country (rollingstone.com) (https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/election-deniers-refuse-certify-chaos-2024-1234988747/)

[Stavros]

A new contender-

"A Texas man has legally changed his name to Literally Anybody Else and announced he is running for US president in the 2024 election (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/us-elections-2024)."
Man changes name to Literally Anybody Else and announces US presidential run | Texas | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/texas-name-change-election-candidate)

Perhaps he will shortly publish his policy proposals titled 'There is nothing I can do to make things better'.

[MrFanti]

Interesting....

[Stavros]

Interesting....

Or scary? America, are you 'Locked and Loaded' in preparation for the 2024 election Debacle?

"The Trump campaign says it plans to change tactics from 2020 when Joe Biden beat the then-incumbent president by more than 7 million votes, and this time go on “offense” by having “soldiers” and “poll watchers” at polling places."
Trump campaign says it will d​eploy 'soldiers' to polling places (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-campaign-says-it-will-d-eploy-soldiers-to-polling-places/ar-BB1kz9Qb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ACTS&cvid=8b116a27cd144d02a04a7a89535d1716&ei=39)

[Stavros]

This is where it gets scary. Maybe even abolish elections and just declare the sex offender and convicted fraudster Dear President for Eternity?

"...on January 6, 2025, what if the new Republican majority refuses to certify as president any Electoral College results from states that went for Biden by close margins — thereby ensuring that no candidate receives an Electoral College majority?Presto! The decision about who’s to be the next president is made on a state-by-state delegation vote — almost surely delivering it to Trump.£
How Trump could win even if he loses the popular vote AND the Electoral College | Opinion (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/how-trump-could-win-even-if-he-loses-the-popular-vote-and-the-electoral-college-opinion/ar-BB1ldjFm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ACTS&cvid=925425944e974da8f602ff4680416c6b&ei=70)

[Fitzcarraldo]

This is where it gets scary. Maybe even abolish elections and just declare the sex offender and convicted fraudster Dear President for Eternity?

"...on January 6, 2025, what if the new Republican majority refuses to certify as president any Electoral College results from states that went for Biden by close margins — thereby ensuring that no candidate receives an Electoral College majority?Presto! The decision about who’s to be the next president is made on a state-by-state delegation vote — almost surely delivering it to Trump.£
How Trump could win even if he loses the popular vote AND the Electoral College | Opinion (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/how-trump-could-win-even-if-he-loses-the-popular-vote-and-the-electoral-college-opinion/ar-BB1ldjFm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ACTS&cvid=925425944e974da8f602ff4680416c6b&ei=70)

What if there is no new Republican majority?

[Stavros]

What if there is no new Republican majority?

I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help: election results in November -is it just the President who requires certification from Congress -what about the Congressional Representatives and Senators? Could the outgoing members delay that certification on the basis their results were 'irregular' and in need of investigation? One of the weaknesses in this whole 'steal' thing is that it appears only the Presidential vote has been rigged, even though the ballot paper with the names of the Presidential candidates also has all the other offices being voted on -so why have all those offices not been challenged?

I yield back.

[Fitzcarraldo]

I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help: election results in November -is it just the President who requires certification from Congress -what about the Congressional Representatives and Senators? Could the outgoing members delay that certification on the basis their results were 'irregular' and in need of investigation? One of the weaknesses in this whole 'steal' thing is that it appears only the Presidential vote has been rigged, even though the ballot paper with the names of the Presidential candidates also has all the other offices being voted on -so why have all those offices not been challenged?

I yield back.

There is currently a Democratic majority in the Senate and a very slight Republican majority in the House. If the Republicans lose this majority in November, the scenario in the piece can't happen.

From the opinion piece:

What happens if, in the wake of the elections, the House’s election-denying Republicans find that they can retain their majority in the next Congress only by denying certification of Democratic candidates who have won by close margins, and do so?

It's a considerable "if."

[Stavros]

It is a bit obscure, but there is the possibility that on January 3rd when the new House convenes, the right of a member to be sworn in can be challenged. I think this has happened on a few occasions in the past with multi-member districts which I think no longer exist, and I also assume that at least until Trump arrived on the scene, challenging a member on the basis of a claim their election was 'fraudulent' or 'rigged' was never argued, as indeed it had not happened with Presidents, allowing for the Bush-Gore problem to be a procedural rather than a political one.

Thus-

"Any Member-elect may challenge the right of any other Member-elect to be sworn when the Speaker directs the Members-elect to rise to take
the oath of office.... The fact
that the challenging party has not himself been sworn is no bar to his
right to invoke this procedure. ... He must base his
challenge either on his own responsibility as a Member-elect or on
specified facts or documents. ...Such challenges
are generally directed at a single Member-elect, but in several
instances the challenge has been directed against an entire State
delegation. ...
The authority to challenge the right of a Member-elect to be sworn is
based on the Constitution, which designates the House as the sole
judge of the elections, returns, and qualifications of Members. U.S.
Const. art. I, Sec. 5, cl. 1. Generally, see Election of Members."
House Practice: A Guide to the Rules, Precedents and Procedures of the House - Chapter 33. Oaths (govinfo.gov) (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPRACTICE-108/html/GPO-HPRACTICE-108-34.htm)

(I have edited out the references which are in the original link).

I guess at this stage it all depends on that new House and whether or not the Trumpits decide to make mischief as part of a broader campaign to rescue Trump from oblivion, assuming, as I do, that he loses again but they refuse to accept the loss. It is all speculation, but at the same time we are told these people are 'organizing' around the likelihood Trump loses and that they decide to go either 'nuclear' with their protest, or in Steve Bannon's term, 'Stalingrad Every Day'.

[Stavros]

The additional point being that if the GOP were to be the largest party on January 3rd, some, possibly enough new representatives would be foot soldiers for Trump who have no respect for the norms -after all, though Trump indicated in 2016 he might not respect the result, I don't think a lot of people thought he would do what he did in 2020, so the potential for a major disruption is at least there.

Meanwhile, from the aptly named 'war room' via a book on the 2022 mid-terms, this nugget, which underlines the extent to which Bannon has tried to learn from Lenin and Gramsci-

"The book goes on to recall an interview Steve Bannon did with Oath Keeper (https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-stewart-rhodes/?utm_source=msn)Dan Schultz on "War Room," in Feb. 2021, promoting the necessity of taking over a political party to be successful. Bannon understood that third parties don't work, Arnsdorf said.
“Essentially, what we have to do is, we conservatives have to take over one of the two major political parties. Our party is, the one we’ve been using, is the Republican Party. The problem is we’re not in control of it," Schultz told Bannon."
Trump’s anger and embarrassment after 2022 midterm failures revealed in new book (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-s-anger-and-embarrassment-after-2022-midterm-failures-revealed-in-new-book/ar-BB1ll3sp?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ACTS&cvid=1f71d28ac56b4ad586ea47818aa20834&ei=109)

It has been a feature of British politics for some time, mostly in the form of Trotskyists -the 'pragmatists' who have abandoned a Proletarian Revolution for the Parliamentary Road to Socialism- who see the Labour Party as their best hope of giving the 'working class' a revolutionary form of leadership, it was certainly behind the Momentum leadership that promoted Jeremy Corbyn to the leadership of the party, I know because several of the Trotskyists who were in my constituency party in the 1980s were still there, not having changed their commitment or views in over 40 years. It was a lesser case with members of UKIP that immigrated to the Conservative Party and backed Boris Johnson as their Brexit champion.

And in both cases, failures, as in the US the TEA Party faction, and so on.

I don't think the average person supports extreme politics in most situations, though now and then they might opt for it, and then regret it. A disaster in Israel, possibly a disaster in the US for the Republicans.

[filghy2]

I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help

Was that a Freudian slip?

[filghy2]

The additional point being that if the GOP were to be the largest party on January 3rd, some, possibly enough new representatives would be foot soldiers for Trump who have no respect for the norms -after all, though Trump indicated in 2016 he might not respect the result, I don't think a lot of people thought he would do what he did in 2020, so the potential for a major disruption is at least there.

We should not forget that 63% of Republican Reps voted against certifying Biden's election the day after Trump incited his supporters to storm the Congress. The percentage willing to defy Trump's wishes would almost certainly be lower now.

I think the scenario to worry about most is that Republican-controlled states refuse to certify the results if Biden wins. In that case it could come down to a state-based vote of the HoR (contingent election). It's possible that Republicans could still control the majority of state delegations even if they lose their HoR majority.

But I'm sure Trump and his followers will be desperate enough to try anything if he loses again.

[Stavros]

But I'm sure Trump and his followers will be desperate enough to try anything if he loses again.

Stalingrad, Reichstag, 22 October 1922...if history repeats itself, and the first was tragedy and the second farce, what is the third?

I do a lot of ogling, especially on the internet. Oh the joys of retirement.

[blackchubby38]

Is it Biden who doesn't want the debates, or Trump? Depending on the dates, he might be on Tv the day after a 'difficult' day in Court. He talks loudly, but often ducks the heavy duty stuff.

Follow-up.

Major media organizations urge Biden and Trump to debate


abcnews.go.com/Politics/major-media-organizations-urge-biden-trump-debate/story?id=109169895

[Stavros]

Follow-up.

Major media organizations urge Biden and Trump to debate


abcnews.go.com/Politics/major-media-organizations-urge-biden-trump-debate/story?id=109169895 (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/major-media-organizations-urge-biden-trump-debate/story?id=109169895)

Will they have to take drugs tests first? In truth I cannot see any purpose to a debate, given that there is no debate, just two people speaking over each other trying to score points. Given that Trump doesn't believe in the democratic process anyway, and his backers are, as I write, concocting the means to secure the electoral college regardless of the popular vote, the tv debate is a waste of time and money. An hour of Trump whining about the world against him, Biden trying to convince people the economy is doing well, and so on.

Better to have them grilled on the detail, which I think Biden, as a seasoned politician can handle, whereas Trump when challenged -if they can find someone with really tough questions- reacts angrily and without reason. But as we know this already, maybe even this is not worth the effort.

Would you watch a tv debate between Biden and Trump?

Maybe Harris and the GOP VP nominee would make better tv?

[Stavros]

Get Ready to Rumble, America, Kari sees it

"“They’re going to come after us with everything. That’s why the next six months is going to be intense. And we need to strap on our — let’s see. What do we want to strap on?” Lake asked as some in the crowd chuckled.“We’re going to strap on our, our seat belt. We’re going to put on our helmet or your Kari Lake ball cap. We are going to put on the armor of God. And maybe strap on a Glock on the side of us just in case.”"
Kari Lake frantically urges supporters to 'strap on a Glock' (azcentral.com) (https://eu.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2024/04/16/kari-lake-urges-supporters-strap-glock-abortion/73347411007/)

Good Glock and Good Night!

[Stavros]

"Addressing conservative LGBTQ+ supporters at the sold-out fundraiser, Melania Trump said money raised that night -- more than $1 million, according to organizers -- would go toward an effort to deploy resources to key swing states in educating voters about conservative LGBTQ+ causes and delivering pro-Trump messages among gay and lesbian communities, said Bill White, one of the co-hosts and a longtime friend of Donald Trump."
Melania Trump announces initiative to woo gay voters during fundraiser, organizer says - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/melania-trump-announces-push-woo-gay-conservatives-fundraiser/story?id=109477174)

Hmmm..conserve what? I am under the impression a second Trump term would take away the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans. Or is this the first scene in a messy divorce?

I didn't hear from Dozing Don, 'I approve this message'.

[Fitzcarraldo]

"Addressing conservative LGBTQ+ supporters at the sold-out fundraiser, Melania Trump said money raised that night -- more than $1 million, according to organizers -- would go toward an effort to deploy resources to key swing states in educating voters about conservative LGBTQ+ causes and delivering pro-Trump messages among gay and lesbian communities, said Bill White, one of the co-hosts and a longtime friend of Donald Trump."
Melania Trump announces initiative to woo gay voters during fundraiser, organizer says - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/melania-trump-announces-push-woo-gay-conservatives-fundraiser/story?id=109477174)

Hmmm..conserve what? I am under the impression a second Trump term would take away the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans. Or is this the first scene in a messy divorce?

I didn't hear from Dozing Don, 'I approve this message'.

He'll gladly accept money from anyone foolish enough to give it to him.

[Stavros]

Something puzzles me about the US election system. Am I right in thinking that a ballot paper is a single sheet of paper with all of the candidates standing for election for multiple posts: that is: President, Senator, Congressional Representative, Attorney General and other public offices?

If so, when Trump says votes for him were flipped for Biden, doesn't this mean all the other votes were also flipped? I don't understand the technology here. One voter may choose Biden over Trump, but the Republican Senator over the Democrat. Or vice versa with Trump and a Democrat. How can each ballot paper be flipped to ensure one name on the sheet is changed, but none of, or any of the others?

I have also been told that many voters just choose one party for all of the available offices, rather than choose each one as they prefer.

I don't know so I am asking for clarification. In the UK we separate ballot papers: last week I had two ballot papers: one for a local council seat, the other for the region's Police and Crime Commissioner and each one had its own colour: yellow and green. I don't understand why in the US you cannot have a separate ballot paper for the Presidential vote, and give them their own colour if people are confused.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Voting varies by state and by county within the state. In my county, we use paper ballots and we fill in our votes for individual candidates with a pen, and the ballot is then run through a scanner. There is no straight-ticket option on my county's ballots.

Trump's nonsense is self-centered, as always. He doesn't care about any other offices. He's claiming votes for president were flipped via computer, and also that ballot boxes were stuffed with phony ballots including votes for Biden.

[Stavros]

Voting varies by state and by county within the state. In my county, we use paper ballots and we fill in our votes for individual candidates with a pen, and the ballot is then run through a scanner. There is no straight-ticket option on my county's ballots.

Trump's nonsense is self-centered, as always. He doesn't care about any other offices. He's claiming votes for president were flipped via computer, and also that ballot boxes were stuffed with phony ballots including votes for Biden.

Thanks. I once read some ballot papers are very large and they can be inserted into a machine, like a casino fruit machine, and you can select 'All' and pull a level or do something else for some votes, don't know if that is what happens or how it works.

Why a scanner? Here the ballot papers are taken to the count, and manually separated into piles, but that is possible when there is only one office up for grabs. I was an election organizer for the Labour Party many many years ago and sat across from the staff as they put the ballot papers on separate piles -for, against, and spoiled (usually an X in the space between the candidate names, sometimes abusive words). Once counted the candidates can then inspect the votes and ask for recounts or for the spoiled ballot to be awarded to them, eg if the X is half in half out of their box.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Thanks. I once read some ballot papers are very large and they can be inserted into a machine, like a casino fruit machine, and you can select 'All' and pull a level or do something else for some votes, don't know if that is what happens or how it works.

Why a scanner? Here the ballot papers are taken to the count, and manually separated into piles, but that is possible when there is only one office up for grabs. I was an election organizer for the Labour Party many many years ago and sat across from the staff as they put the ballot papers on separate piles -for, against, and spoiled (usually an X in the space between the candidate names, sometimes abusive words). Once counted the candidates can then inspect the votes and ask for recounts or for the spoiled ballot to be awarded to them, eg if the X is half in half out of their box.

Scanner gives them a quick computer tally, but there is a paper backup if a manual recount is required. It's supposedly the best method. Some places are all electronic.

I remember in the '70s going with my mother to vote, and in that case it was a large machine where you moved individual toggles to select candidates, and then you pulled a lever to register the whole ballot.

[Stavros]

"Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp signed legislation that allows more options to challenge election results while also restricting (https://www.rawstory.com/cnn-host-confronts-georgia-lawmaker/?utm_source=msn) the options for voting.The Republican governor signed bills into law that expand the opportunities to challenge a voter's eligibility (https://www.rawstory.com/brian-pritchard-voter-fraud/?utm_source=msn), makes scanned ballots publicly available online, reduces the number of voting machines and requires election workers to be U.S. citizens...
...Senate Bill 189 establishes new "probable cause" criteria to allow residents to challenge voter qualifications, including evidence a person has died, voted in another election, obtained a homestead exemption on their taxes or registered to vote from a non-residential address.
They may also be removed from the voter rolls within 45 days of an election, which seems to violate the 90-day limit set by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993."
'A gift to MAGA election deniers': Critics fume at new Georgia voting law (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-gift-to-maga-election-deniers-critics-fume-at-new-georgia-voting-law/ar-BB1m2UOs?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=EDGEESS&cvid=603ffdcd1f8549cebd2993567ad53528&ei=78)

Although, historically and up to the present, the primary aim has been to stop Black people voting, by removing them from the roll, and making sure polling stations in Black majority areas are closed on polling day for 'Health and Safety' reasons. But these proposals could also be used by Democrats in Republican areas, not least because most election fraud that did take place in 2020 was by pro-Trump voters. The potential for an election to be challenged by both sides and in every County would delay a final tally of the vote, or even make it impossible.

But - "makes scanned ballots publicly available online" -all of them? What happened to the law on privacy? Will the Bill pass before November?

Time to take the election process away from partisan State government, and create a Federal Election Commission that does it all: set the boundaries, organize the elections, and so on.

[Stavros]

The numbers don't lie: Trump's share of the vote in his own party is lower than it was in 2020 -this suggests to me there is no way he can win the popular vote, and that he can only win the Electoral College through some form of manipulation in swing states or through the sort of mechanisms noted in the Georgia Bill above.

"Nikki Haley (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/03/07/nikki-haley-dropout-primary-donald-trump-super-tuesday/)’s “zombie campaign” has picked up more 20 per cent of the vote in Indiana’s Republican primary, in a warning sign for Donald Trump (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/08/david-lammy-meets-trump-adviser-labour/)."
Unexpected warning sign for Trump in Indiana GOP primary (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/unexpected-warning-sign-trump-indiana-163446116.html)

[Stavros]

"Republicans floated as possible running mates include Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and J.D. Vance of Ohio, as well as Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem — even after Noem was pilloried for describing in a new book how she killed her aggressive hunting dog. None of them is seen as a likely vessel for winning over Haley’s staunchest fans."
Republicans Urge Trump To Pick Running Mate Who Can Win Nikki Haley Voters (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/republicans-urge-trump-pick-running-094525441.html)

Anyone else in the frame in the Veepstakes? Could it be someone who is not and has not been in public office?

[Stavros]

I have just read -I didn't know this before- that the 12th Amendment to the Constitution states that the candidates for President and Vice-President cannot be from the same State, as in living there (as opposed to being born there I assume),

Guess this means 'Little' Marco Rubio hasn't got a chance, so why is he trying? Or could it be he has no idea what the Constitution says- or doesn't care?
Rubio 'pushing hard' to be Trump's VP – but he could make impeachment more enticing to GOP (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/rubio-pushing-hard-to-be-trump-s-vp-but-he-could-make-impeachment-more-enticing-to-gop/ar-BB1ma9Il?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=EDGEESS&cvid=4f8120827a924f3aa86dfa99964d084f&ei=110)

[Fitzcarraldo]

The GOP no longer cares about the Constitution. But I imagine either Trump or Rubio could switch their official state of residence. Trump obviously owns property in at least New York and Florida.

[Stavros]

Given that your ID says you live there, what, if anything has Rubio done for the people of Florida he represents in the Senate? Does he have a record to stand on that looks good?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Given that your ID says you live there, what, if anything has Rubio done for the people of Florida he represents in the Senate? Does he have a record to stand on that looks good?

I've never voted for him. He is a defense hawk, though. I can't name specific accomplishments, but he's done some things I haven't hated, unlike our other senator and former governor Rick Scott.

[Stavros]

So Paul Manafort will not be 'helping' to organize the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee. And yet, as a convicted criminal he is surely and exactly the kind of man Trump wants around him. I believe no other US politician, let alone a former President has been associated with so many convicted criminals. CNN lists 11, Reuters the same people but also organizations. Neither of them goes further back to cite Felix Sater, Trump's business partner in Manhattan and a convicted racketeer and Russian mafia mobster, or the earlier cases of money laundering in New Jersey casinos.

If this was a Democrat, he would have been forced out of the race and they would be looking for another candidate. Or has the US so obviously given up on standard in public life that Trump's indifference to the Law makes him immune to the charges that woul destroy anyone else? Think about it, it is staggering how crooked the man is, and that nobody cares.

Trump’s casino was a money laundering concern shortly after it opened | CNN Politics (https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/trump-taj-mahal/index.html#:~:text=In%20the%20consent%20order%2C%2 0the,to%20the%202015%20consent%20order.)

Paul Manafort backs away from supporting role with Republican National Convention following media scrutiny (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/paul-manafort-backs-away-supporting-020605856.html)

11 Trump associates have now been charged with crimes. 11! | CNN Politics (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/politics/tom-barrack-trump-arrested/index.html)

What Trump allies have faced criminal charges? | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-trumps-orbit-have-faced-criminal-charges-2023-02-16/)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Or has the US so obviously given up on standard in public life that Trump's indifference to the Law makes him immune to the charges that woul destroy anyone else? Think about it, it is staggering how crooked the man is, and that nobody cares.

The country hasn't, but the GOP is literally owned by Trump now.

[Stavros]

But the point is, if Trump is the Republican Party and the Party is Trump, all of its candidates need to be asked about their links to criminals and criminal behaviour in the past as a guide to the present and the future -I can't imagine any media outlet not hammering the Democrat who compared himself to 'Alphonse' Capone or now even Hannibal Lecter. I mean when it comes to Knock Me Over statements, Trump is a gift that cannot stop giving, so why is everyone so passive with him? But then i guess if even people who were appalled by Jan 6 when it happened, who now weasel their way to excuse it, are part of the problem. Like JD Vance, you have to wonder what he uses for brains, but his shameless manipulation of the truth might yet guarantee him a top job, though I still think Trump cannot win as so far all the evidence is that he has lost votes from Republicans.

"“But, look, my view on Donald Trump, I have been very clear on this, is, look, I was wrong about him. I didn’t think he was going to be a good president, Dana, and I was very, very proud to be proven wrong. It’s one of the reasons why I’m working so hard to get him elected,” he replied on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Vance had made comments against Trump’s bid in 2016, prompting Ohio Republicans in 2022 to urge Trump not to endorse (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3269950-ohio-gop-leaders-press-trump-to-not-endorse-jd-vance/) the Ohio Republican. Vance ended up clinching Trump’s support and winning his election."
Vance says he was ‘wrong’ in past remarks on Trump (yahoo.com) (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/vance-says-wrong-past-remarks-142603453.html)

[Stavros]

Fareed Zakaria looks at the polling and it doesn't look good for Biden, regardless of his record on the economy. But the other polls he has not factored in are the Primaries, where Republicans have been voting for Nikki Haley. If, on the ground, Trump in numerical terms is losing votes, how can he possible win, other than through some manipulation of the Electoral College? It beggars belief that people think Trump is more competent than Biden, but again, the devil may be in the detail, not least because Trump -and his supporters- will use any means necessary to win, or to claim victory.

Fareed breaks down Trump’s chances of retaking the White House (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/fareed-breaks-down-trump-chances-153214211.html)

[Stavros]

Again: the polls say one thing, analysis of the Caucus and Primaries another- the Republican voters who will probably not vote for Biden, but won't vote for Trump either: just stay at home. If Trump cannot win new voters -and I have read that 'Latino' voters in Florida are a potential asset- Trump will yet again lose the popular vote.

The sleaze factor is yet to play out -Clinton was mercilessly attacked over the Lewinsky affair, but no surprise that the same media outlets take a more lenient view with Trump no matter now many women he bedded and paid off.

"An AP VoteCast found a significant percentage of Republican voters in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries would be so dissatisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee that they wouldn’t vote for him in November.Specifically, 20 percent of Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, 34 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire and 25 percent of GOP primary voters in South Carolina said they were so dissatisfied with Trump that they would not vote for him in the general election."
GOP senators see warning signs for Trump after embarrassing week (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gop-senators-see-warning-signs-100000400.html)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Trump is definitely strong among Latino voters in Florida. Ask Marco Rubio.

[Stavros]

Trump is definitely strong among Latino voters in Florida. Ask Marco Rubio.

I can't think of any answer I want from Marco Rubio, so I will pass on the questions. I do wonder why it is that Trump demonizes immigrants -the Chinese are the latest victims of his odious Lecter-lite fantasy- when most immigrants are small-c conservatives who don't want hand-outs but prove they can make it on their own without state aid, and for that reason would normally find the Republican Party more congenial than the Democrats, accepting a broad brush with regard to attitudes and party Brands.

I also wonder if the Cuban connection in Florida has shaped the ex-Cuban families attitudes if they are convinced the Democrats are 'soft' on Cuba. That said, of all the people to support, Trump? He is not, and never has been a Republican. He is the polar opposite of the immigrant who works night and day to make it in America, but I guess some States in the US would vote for Hannibal Lecter any day, rather than a Democrat. It means the 'swing states' will make or break the 2024 election, barring some seismic change in US politics -but I say this not knowing how the House and Senate result will pan out.

[Fitzcarraldo]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-deep-origins-of-latino-support-for-trump

[Stavros]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-deep-origins-of-latino-support-for-trump

Yes, but. Will they still think Trump is their guy when he fulfils his promise to expel 20 million 'Latinos' or 'Hispanics' if he steals the White House? Like documentation matters? When the Republican Guard marches Jesus and Maria to the bus at gunpoint for their trip south of the border, down Mexico way, and they squeal 'we been here 20 years, we got papers!' you can just hear the response from Sgt Wayne: 'Whatever Haysoos, you're done here'.

He wants their votes. He doesn't want them.

Trump has promised an immigration crackdown if reelected. That could backfire on the economy | CNN Business (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/14/business/immigration-trump-inflation-jobs/index.html)

Will Donald Trump deport 20 million illegal immigrants if re-elected? Know about his plans in detail - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-donald-trump-deport-20-million-illegal-immigrants-if-re-elected-know-about-his-plans-in-detail/articleshow/109870145.cms?from=mdr)

[Fitzcarraldo]

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him.

[savannahguy]

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him. Agree,and they're going to be in for a very harsh reality if the MAGA King gets elected.

[Stavros]

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him.

a) no papers, no rights. b) how does any government round up and deport 20 million people, and how long does it take? I think it is really just a campaign promise destined to go the way of the wall that Mexico was going to pay for.

[Stavros]

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

Try the 'Free State of Florida' where not so long ago a 74 year old married a 14 year old girl and it was legal, but no his name wasn't Trump. Florida is paradise for Paedophiles. Curious isn't it? Donald Trump was mates with Jeffrey Epstein all those years, and not only did he know that Epstein was having sex with underage girls, he claims to have broken off their friendship when Epstein hit on the teenage daughter of someone else he knew. And when did Trump inform Law Enforcement of Epstein's crimes?

And now Epstein sleeps with the fishes.

[GroobySteven]

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

I usually leave this forum alone for you dummies to argue.
But that gets a ban.
For life.

[Stavros]

Is there any purpose in the so-called Presidential Debates? They are not debates in the real sense of the term. More likely they will just be two men attacking each other as Trump has no policies other than tax cuts and immigration control, and will reject any claim Biden's term has been good for the US economy. Anyway the Trump camp already say the debates are rigged.

Is there anything in the US that isn't rigged?

[Fitzcarraldo]

People will actually watch the debates and it will influence their choice. And it's a tradition.

[Stavros]

I wonder if this film will help or not...

Donald Trump movie depicting rise to power in 1980s sold for UK audience ahead of Cannes premiere (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-movie-depicting-rise-100525202.html)

[Stavros]

Forgot to ask: will there be Vice-President debates? And when does Trump make his choice? I keep seeing JD Vance's name in the gossip, but surely he is too alpha to run beside Trump, who needs a wimp that will make him look like Daddy rather than Bro -?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Forgot to ask: will there be Vice-President debates? And when does Trump make his choice? I keep seeing JD Vance's name in the gossip, but surely he is too alpha to run beside Trump, who needs a wimp that will make him look like Daddy rather than Bro -?

There's been no announcement of VP debates. I think both parties will still have conventions. The VP nominees should be announced then.

[Stavros]

There's been no announcement of VP debates. I think both parties will still have conventions. The VP nominees should be announced then.

The babe done hear me.

Kamala Harris Agrees To Vice Presidential Debate This Summer (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/kamala-harris-agrees-vice-presidential-200454228.html)

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Is there any purpose in the so-called Presidential Debates? They are not debates in the real sense of the term. More likely they will just be two men attacking each other as Trump has no policies other than tax cuts and immigration control, and will reject any claim Biden's term has been good for the US economy. Anyway the Trump camp already say the debates are rigged.

Is there anything in the US that isn't rigged?Yes there is,because it will help voters decide which of the two candidates they want too vote for in the upcoming presidental election. Not surprising at all the Trump Campaign are making false claims that the debates are rigged.

[Stavros]

More on the VP stakes: this is from the Telegraph, which can be relied on to attack Biden on all fronts, so much of the opinion is warped. That said, this is the justification for choosing Rubio as VP-

"The Latino population grew by 23 per cent from 2010 to 2020, and now account for 18.7 per cent of the US population. Despite generally lower participation rates, more than 17.5 million Latino voters are expected to cast ballots this November nationwide, representing a 6.5 per cent increase from Election 2020. More than one of every 10 voters will be Latino (11.1 per cent) this year, a 20.5 per cent increase from 2016.
Latinos have become increasingly critical of Biden’s border policies. Recent polling shows that 40 per cent consider the border to be in crisis, and dislike the government’s lax enforcement policies. A full third favours more deportations, a position once rare among those of Hispanic heritage."
If Trump wants to win the election, he must reject MAGA sycophants (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-wants-win-election-must-164612877.html)

[Stavros]

Re-structing a State might not be new, but can I assume this proposal -to remove eastern Oregon to Idaho will not pass? If anything, it speaks to an enmity between Americans that Trump and the Republicans seem keen to exploit, even if, or maybe because it will see to the effective demise of the USA as e pluribus unum? It will be more like Brexit than Stalingrad, but just as daft.

‘We don’t have a democracy’: why some Oregonians want to join Idaho | Oregon | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/18/oregon-idaho-border-vote)

[Stavros]

Oh dear, poor Elise...when someone reminds you of something bad you said about someone you now love...'how dare you!'.

Because the truth is another country, they did things differently there.

Stefanik Loses It When Fox News Host Reminds Her She Called Trump a ‘Whack Job’ (yahoo.com) (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/stefanik-loses-fox-news-host-161334016.html)

Elise Stefanik once harshly blasted Trump’s rhetoric and policies | CNN Politics (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/07/politics/kfile-elise-stefanik-trump-comments/index.html)

Here is the other Elise, the one that Beethoven wrote in 1810 when James Madison was the elected President of the USA, played by André Watts who died last year. I know which Elise I prefer.

Bagatelle in A Minor, WoO 59 "Für Elise" (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcGNXIYPR9c)

[Stavros]

"“Let me ask you,” Biden said during an address to an NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) dinner in Detroit. “What do you think he would have done on January 6 if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol?”"
Biden: what would Trump have done if the Capitol riots had been led by Black Americans? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/biden-trump-done-capitol-riots-054440604.html)

Go on, then, America, tell us.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

"“Let me ask you,” Biden said during an address to an NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) dinner in Detroit. “What do you think he would have done on January 6 if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol?”"
Biden: what would Trump have done if the Capitol riots had been led by Black Americans? (yahoo.com) (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/biden-trump-done-capitol-riots-054440604.html)

Go on, then, America, tell us. The MAGA King and Wannabe Dictator Donald Trump,would have called in the DC National Guard and US Secret Service. And we all know that he didn't do a damn thing for over 3 hours to stop the capitol riot,because he was at the White House watching on television cheering them on.

[Stavros]

"Former President Donald Trump on Monday posted a video on his social media platform (https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/trump-media-technology-group-posts-300-million-net-110416531) that uses a language that appears to mirror that of Nazi Germany, suggesting there will be a "Unified Reich" if he wins the 2024 election...
Under a big headline that says, "WHAT'S NEXT FOR AMERICA?" there is a smaller headline underneath that appears to read: "INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DRIVEN BY THE CREATION OF A UNIFIED REICH."...
In a statement to the Associated Press, the Trump campaign claimed it is not a campaign video but rather a video reposted by a staffer who did not see the word." (My highlight in bold).
Trump posts social media video seemingly suggesting his victory will bring 'unified Reich' - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-posts-social-media-video-seemingly-suggesting-victory/story?id=110422766)

Nah, did not see the word because it was in BLOCK CAPITALS...should have gone to Specsavers

Welcome to the Specsavers Vet | Specsavers UK & ROI (youtube.com) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3MUX3V0aUE)