Coronavirus

[broncofan]

If you genuinely wanted other peoples' thoughts why do you ignore their responses and just repeat the same dubious point?
In fairness I asked him where he heard the quote and he couldn't well admit he heard it belched out of Sean Hannity's bloated face. Or saw it in the Washington Times, a paper known to peddle "conspiracy theories about Barack Obama" and "neo-confederate historical revisionism". And the official remarks from Biden's speech provide the context so how to answer...

[broncofan]

For those who are interested in how the U.S' response to Covid has been in the past year here is a ranking system from a non-partisan thinktank in Sydney, Australia. Out of 98 countries with publicly available data, the U.S. ranked 94th based on their criteria. They state their methodology in the link I provide but it seems reasonable enough though some may disagree on emphasis.

https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/#overview

How did we get there? No testing all through February. No federal contact tracing program throughout the pandemic. A President who did not encourage people to wear masks after April 3, 2020 when all health agencies were certain there was presymptomatic viral spread. A President who told people the virus would disappear, that it was "a flu", that a vaccine would be available in three months, that doctors were paid to list deaths as covid deaths, that hydroxychloroquine was a cure when it was no better than placebo, and who encouraged people to violate their state health orders.

Imagine watching all of that without a complaint and then being upset that Biden thinks it may take a few months for the trajectory of the pandemic to change. For those curious about Biden's plans, read about them here https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-fight-to-contain-the-covid-19-pandemic/

[Stavros]

I have just posted some comments on Covid in the Politics thread in which I lamented the absence of co-ordination across the UK, the EU, and, as is evident, in the US. If the US is in a worse state (but in terms of death per capita the UK is riight up there), it is not just the failure of leadership by Trump, personally ignorant and indifferent to the illness, but surrounded by some of the world's most brilliant virologists, epidemiologists and policy makers -but across the US where Governors such as Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem seem to be staking a claim as the most stupid, lethal and incompetent politicians in American history. If I were to be inflammatory, I would accuse them of being accessories to murder and expect them to be so arrested and charged.

Unless, and until the people in charge of policy making stop pretending to be clever, as in 'Everyone their own Einstein' the dismal state of Covid in the US will continue to waste lives and resources, even though I suspect most Americans are actually behaving sensibly. Biden has a mountain to climb before the US can see the Summit, but its not a natural mountain, but one consisting of man-made lies, sloppy procedures, a lack of preparedness, etc. The US will get there in time, but on key stats like hospital admissions I see no horizons. The damage caused by Trump and his Disciples is going to linger for years.

[filghy2]

Here's an interesting article on whether we can expect the virus to evolve in a less deadly direction over time. That used to be the accepted wisdom, on the basis that killing too many hosts is not optimal for a virus's replication. However, it seems that may no longer be the case: depending on various factors it can go the other way. The key factor for this virus may be the long time period between infection and death.

https://theconversation.com/will-coronavirus-really-evolve-to-become-less-deadly-153817

[broncofan]

That is a good article. It's easy to understand why there would be selective pressure for transmissibility to increase as people try to avoid getting infected. And while generally one might expect decreasing virulence their reasoning about why we don't see it makes sense too: if it takes about 23 days between infection and death someone who dies has nearly the same chance to transmit the variants that got them so sick.

But did it say why virulence would increase? Maybe sicker people are shedding more virus. Maybe they have a more contagious presymptomatic period.

For the sake of us developing herd immunity it is also important whether it is evolving quickly enough to evade neutralization by our antibodies and t-cell response to previous variants. The UK variant has some more ominous characteristics but seems to be neutralized by vaccines and the antibody response of people who have gotten sick. The South African variant is neutralized less effectively by antibodies developed both through vaccination and natural infection. It's possible people who have been vaccinated or infected don't have as much protection against infection but still good protection against serious disease but we'll see.

Another question I have that I've seen discussed elsewhere: while there will be antigenic drift based on the number of infections do some of our attempts to eradicate the virus drive mutation? Treatments such as monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, and even vaccines put selective pressure on viruses that create escape mutations. The argument is that if you have a treatment that doesn't have 100% efficacy the genetic makeup of the virus that is transmitted is resistant to treatment. Anyhow that's how the argument goes but I still think the more significant risk is based on how many hosts the virus sees. It's probably no coincidence we're not seeing variants emerge in places that have only minor outbreaks. Besides, even if a treatment drives mutation it would still be worth pursuing if it's very effective.

[broncofan]

It's easy to understand why there would be selective pressure for transmissibility to increase as people try to avoid getting infected.

Even more so the fact that more transmissibility is an advantage for the virus in every environment.

[filghy2]

But did it say why virulence would increase? Maybe sicker people are shedding more virus. Maybe they have a more contagious presymptomatic period.

It's not clear from the article. It must depend on the balance of different factors in the trade-off model, but the paper they linked to is not freely available.

[morim]

Stupid news/media does not report that the common flu virus so far as been more dangerous. The only thing they seem to report is information that causes more panic and stupidity.
I completely agree!!!

[sukumvit boy]

"Evolving Threat" ,interesting article from the 20 August 2021 issue of "Science" magazine on how and why corona viruses mutate ,the various variants and what we can expect from Sars CoV-2
https://www.science.org/content/article/new-sars-cov-2-variants-have-changed-pandemic-what-will-virus-do-next

[morim]

Coronavirus: lies, lies and more lies

[fred41]

"Evolving Threat" ,interesting article from the 20 August 2021 issue of "Science" magazine on how and why corona viruses mutate ,the various variants and what we can expect from Sars CoV-2
https://www.science.org/content/article/new-sars-cov-2-variants-have-changed-pandemic-what-will-virus-do-next

Excellent article…great share…Thanks!

[KnightHawk 2.0]

"Evolving Threat" ,interesting article from the 20 August 2021 issue of "Science" magazine on how and why corona viruses mutate ,the various variants and what we can expect from Sars CoV-2
https://www.science.org/content/article/new-sars-cov-2-variants-have-changed-pandemic-what-will-virus-do-next
Great Article.

[filghy2]

Coronavirus: lies, lies and more lies

Your honesty is commendable. We are still waiting for the evidence from you or other morims that shows it is less deadly then common flu.

[binneu]

To anybody who is able to understand german... here is a video from a data analyst who actually beliefed in the mainstream corona story and tryed to find a simple graph to convince a friend!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCZgIJcqCAg

At min 22:35 you see the normalized death in Germany from 2012 till 2020 over different age groups (red highest / green lowest).

Long story short he couldn't find anything abnormal in 2020.

He did same analysis with the hospitalisation and infections... always same result.

For Germany the number tell us... there was nothing special in 2020 beside a new pcr test and media panic!

[filghy2]

There's no need to understand German because these calculations are available on a number of sites, which show that excess mortality was significant in many countries.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

There is also the obvious point that this is what happened after significant measures in most countries to limit the spread of the virus.

[binneu]

There's no need to understand German So ecause these calculations are available on a number of sites, which show that excess mortality was significant in many countries.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

There is also the obvious point that this is what happened after significant measures in most countries to limit the spread of the virus.

In german mainstream media they talking about 60k corona deaths in 2020.
(in your link its 68k)
They talking about mortality rate way above average... but there is nothing!
Even more it was a year with low rates!

Better check what i send befor... he explained why it's not possible to just compare raw death counts!

And in Germany the Average life expectancy is higher then ever before... why is that if so many people died on covid??

[lucx]

In german mainstream media they talking about 60k corona deaths in 2020.
(in your link its 68k)
They talking about mortality rate way above average... but there is nothing!
Even more it was a year with low rates!

Better check what i send befor... he explained why it's not possible to just compare raw death counts!

And in Germany the Average life expectancy is higher then ever before... why is that if so many people died on covid??


In Italy we have a number of above 130K deaths to coronavirus until now... and yes... there are people saying, like you are saying, that the death rate did not increase... well... they are plainly wrong misinterpreting data to force their point (and there are plenty of data to demonstrate it)... and even if we want to believe that the death rate is not so high like they are saying it seems that everyone is forgetting the main reason why the death rate did stop to increase from the summer of 2020: we are following (in Italy and in most of the world) a lot of special measures (lockdowns, face mask, isolation and, from the beginning of 2021, vaccines) that are helping to prevent too many deaths... that's all... if the world would have ignored the increased number of victims of the beginning of the 2020 without adopting all these measures the death rate would have been incredibly higher ...

[binneu]

Sorry... its not misinterpreting!
The main factor is that the population in gemany (also italy) is getting older.
So more will die (if you have more people who are 70+ you can expect more people will die just by natural)... its not misinterpreting its just a simple fact.
And again... the average age at death is in 2020 higher than in 2019!
People got older then ever before! How is this possible in the worst pandemic ever? In a dangerous pandemic the average life expectancy should be decreasing, not increasing!

And what about sweden? They had non of these "special measures" and same numbers as most other europe counties... better than italy, without any lockdowns and masks.
You also can compare north dakota and south dakota... same situation.

And in Isreal (the country with one of the highest vaccinated population) has more death then ever before (due to the JHU data).
That makes sense to you?

I know the mainstream media hammering these numbers in your brains every day, its hard to fight against this!

Im not saying i know the whole truth in any aspect... but you should take into acount what the citics say also! Your "death rate would have been incredibly higher" is not any proof.
How high they would by and why?
Do you have any argument why you think so? I have one... its still called sweden.
Thats a real example and we can see nothing really would happen.

Dont get me wrong im already lil pissed of talking always same and getting no real arguments.
But at the other hand its good we discuss this and try to understand each other.

[filghy2]

It's hard to know where to start.
1. You missed the clear statement in the first link that the figures are adjusted for age structure of the population.
2. Covid mortality is much higher for older people, so an increase in the average age of death is not proof of your claim.
3. Nobody is claiming this is the worst pandemic ever; only the worst since the Spanish flu.
4. Death rates in Sweden have been many times higher than in the neighbouring Scandinavian countries which are the most directly comparable.
5. New cases in Israel are higher than ever. Deaths are not higher than ever. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

[binneu]

Ok lets keep the focus on "how dangerous is this virus"

1. Age is just ond factor (leap year, grouth of popolation in germany, age structur)
But i see we have a problem with our data/sources.
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Keine-Uebersterblichkeit-trotz-Covid-5001962.html?seite=all
Here is an other one that confirms my statement...

2. No thats not a argument... coz any disease is more deadly for older people.
If the average age at death not changing it simple means the people would have died anyway?

3. I mean in the newer time... in the lifetime of the people who life today! But I thought that was clear...
Please don't make it even more complicated by having to discuss the Spanish flu!

4. But its ok to compare Germany to Italy/Bergamo? Alright... then tell me which country I can compare to which? Maybe NorthDakota and SouthDakota?

5. Yes sorry this was my fault... i watched the graph of "cases" not deaths.
But it makes no sense to talk about the effectiveness of vaccination coz my point is the
virus is not even deadly! (see 1 and 2)

[rodinuk]

And in Germany the Average life expectancy is higher then ever before... why is that if so many people died on covid



How is this possible in the worst pandemic ever? In a dangerous pandemic the average life expectancy should be decreasing, not increasing!

Because ~60K is 0.08% of the population so it’s not going to adversely affect the life expectancy figure to any great degree so if it was trending upwards it will continue to reflect that for some time. It would have to offset all other positive/negative factors for it to make some kind of step change in that timescale.

You cannot claim this to be the worst pandemic ever, have that disproved by fact and then try to claim you were only talking about the present time and want to ignore the fact that’s just plain dishonest.


No thats not a argument... coz any disease is more deadly for older people.
I believe Malaria is one of a number of diseases which is more deadly in children than in adults.

I’m happily double-jabbed by the way, my choice. Several examples of anti-Vaxxers dying from Covid advising other people to have the jab from their hospital bed, benefits of hindsight I suppose.

[binneu]

Again, the average age at death has increased.... not even stagnated!
And tell me... how old is the average corona death?
(https://www.welt.de/regionales/hamburg/article222855518/Rechtsmediziner-Corona-Tote-wurden-im-Schnitt-82-Jahre-alt.html)
In germany 2020 it was 82... and what is the normal life span in germany?

And you name it by yourself... its 0.08% (0.06% in Germany)!
99.92% died on something else... but we all focus 15 month on this 0.08%?
And on top of that... how many of these 60k people realy died ON covid and not WITH civid?
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus233426581/Seit-Juli-2021-Corona-bei-80-Prozent-der-offiziellen-Covid-Toten-wohl-nicht-Todesursache.html

Oh pls no... we dont talk about afica and malaria, and the sky and the moon now...
Lets pls focus on western countries and corana to keep this short... its complicated enoug!

You can take as much as vaxxines as you want... feel free!
But respect my decision as well!


And one not medical point... why do they not discuss this topics in media?
Why are all these opinions in the mainstream media undermined and censored?
And when in the past were the people who censor and suppress other opinions right?
Just think about it for some minutes...

[rodinuk]

Why do you bother even posting asking for discussion when you’ve twice now posted a condescending, patronising shutdown comment refusing to listen to fact. Decision making is something most people will make on the basis of gathering information and making a choice based on that and their opinion and experience. I guess you don’t like the facts getting in the way of your “truth”

[broncofan]

5. New cases in Israel are higher than ever. Deaths are not higher than ever. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/
Just to piggyback on this point, I changed both the daily infection and daily death histograms to 7 day moving averages just to avoid occasional reporting surges. The death rate (deaths per diagnosed infection) in Israel is less than one third of what it was with a more virulent variant in circulation (link below).

Israel has an average of 10,000 new cases now compared to a previous high of about 8,000. The average number of deaths per day now is about 25. At peak it was 62. This is a death rate of about .25% compared to .775%, or less than one third.

More than 30% of Israel's population is not vaccinated. Of those who are vaccinated, we've seen that effectiveness against disease wears off quicker than effectiveness against hospitalization and death. We also should consider that studies have shown that delta is not just more transmissible but more virulent than previous variants that were circulating when Israel had its previous high in January 2021. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210830/delta-variant-doubles-hospitalization-risk-study

When you look at the effectiveness of the vaccine against death and hospitalization within each age group they are more than 90% effective. If someone told you that you could decrease your chance of death by a factor of close to 10 by getting a shot that gives most people a sore arm and headache wouldn't a rational person do it?

[broncofan]

But it makes no sense to talk about the effectiveness of vaccination coz my point is the
virus is not even deadly! (see 1 and 2)
It is deadly though. More than 4 million people have died from it. And the death rates among vaccinated people are far lower.

The graph below is based on data sets from Israel. If you were between 70-79 would you prefer to have a chance of getting severe disease of 190 per 100,000 or 19 per 100,000?

1337233

[filghy2]

Again, the average age at death has increased.... not even stagnated!
And tell me... how old is the average corona death?
(https://www.welt.de/regionales/hamburg/article222855518/Rechtsmediziner-Corona-Tote-wurden-im-Schnitt-82-Jahre-alt.html)
In germany 2020 it was 82... and what is the normal life span in germany?

I think you just demonstrated the irrelevance of your own argument. If the average age of Covid death is close to the average age from all causes then it can't affect the overall average, no matter how many people die of Covid. It tells us nothing about the seriousness of the disease.

[filghy2]

Im not saying i know the whole truth in any aspect... but you should take into acount what the citics say also! Your "death rate would have been incredibly higher" is not any proof.
How high they would by and why?
Do you have any argument why you think so? I have one... its still called sweden.


If nothing is done to stop it a virus will keep spreading until it runs out of new people to infect (herd immunity). For the now-dominant Delta variant that would require more than 80% of the population to gain immunity, either from previous infection or vaccination. Without effective vaccines an estimated fatality rate of around 0.5% would mean about 0.4% of the population could die (more than 30 million people worldwide).

The death rate can now be reduced significantly by vaccines, though you seem to doubt even that. However, vaccines weren't available until late 2020, and most of the world's population is still unvaccinated. If people had taken your view that there was no health emergency then obviously we would not have got these vaccines developed in record time.

Even with vaccines, deaths in a number of countries that did less well in controlling the virus have reached 0.2% of the population or more. In Sweden it is 0.14%, and it's not true that they did nothing. There were restrictions on some activities and they also relied on people following the guidelines. Most Swedes are probably more sensible than you seem to be. In any case, the Swedish economy seems to have done even worse than it's neighbours, so it's not clear what benefit they got from accepting a higher death rate.
https://news.yahoo.com/half-sweden-decided-not-lock-115500722.html

[binneu]

It is deadly though. More than 4 million people have died from it. And the death rates among vaccinated people are far lower.

The graph below is based on data sets from Israel. If you were between 70-79 would you prefer to have a chance of getting severe disease of 190 per 100,000 or 19 per 100,000?

1337233

Could it be possible that the vaxxined dont get testet as much as the unvaxxinated?

[binneu]

I think you just demonstrated the irrelevance of your own argument. If the average age of Covid death is close to the average age from all causes then it can't affect the overall average, no matter how many people die of Covid. It tells us nothing about the seriousness of the disease.

No i just explained why the average age of death didnt change... coz they died in the same age as always.
Maybe they would have died anyway... also without this "pandemic"?
So if people get 82 years old, with or without covid... how can you say covid is dangerous if nothing changed actually?

[binneu]

If nothing is done to stop it a virus will keep spreading until it runs out of new people to infect (herd immunity). For the now-dominant Delta variant that would require more than 80% of the population to gain immunity, either from previous infection or vaccination. Without effective vaccines an estimated fatality rate of around 0.5% would mean about 0.4% of the population could die (more than 30 million people worldwide).

The death rate can now be reduced significantly by vaccines, though you seem to doubt even that. However, vaccines weren't available until late 2020, and most of the world's population is still unvaccinated. If people had taken your view that there was no health emergency then obviously we would not have got these vaccines developed in record time.

Even with vaccines, deaths in a number of countries that did less well in controlling the virus have reached 0.2% of the population or more. In Sweden it is 0.14%, and it's not true that they did nothing. There were restrictions on some activities and they also relied on people following the guidelines. Most Swedes are probably more sensible than you seem to be. In any case, the Swedish economy seems to have done even worse than it's neighbours, so it's not clear what benefit they got from accepting a higher death rate.
https://news.yahoo.com/half-sweden-decided-not-lock-115500722.html

Again... I question the test and the assessment of the danger. That's why all the vaccination dissections are relatively pointless.
Why should I vaccinate myself against something I don't think is dangerous.

Since the test isn't really any good, you can't determine mortality.

Let us please concentrate on clarifying the question of dangerousness! The vaccination is for me downstream!

[broncofan]

Could it be possible that the vaxxined dont get testet as much as the unvaxxinated?
Not testing enough makes the mortality rate appear higher not lower. The denominator is number of proven cases.

In the example I gave, you have a comparison of 100,000 people who are unvaccinated and 100,000 people who are vaccinated. Of the first group, 190 end up in the hospital. Of the second group 19 end up in the hospital. It has nothing to do with testing. People end up in the hospital because they can't breathe and usually need oxygen at that point.

When people in their 20s and 30s get fever, shortness of breath, and a cough and then die three weeks later from lung damage testing is besides the point. But if you didn't get the previous point about excess mortality and the fact that there are simply more deaths from all causes worldwide (almost as if there's some additional cause of death out there) then you're never going to get it.

[rodinuk]

...
Maybe they would have died anyway... also without this "pandemic"?

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus a pandemic on 11 March 2020.


Why should I vaccinate myself against something I don't think is dangerous.

As far as I know nobody is forcing you to get vaccinated, I got the impression that you have chosen not to receive the vaccine but you seem insecure about that. Your own factors such as age and underlying health conditions, which vaccine you would prefer etc. probably affect your decision. If you’ve never heard someone struggling to stop coughing incessantly for two weeks as I have as they fought it you’re probably delightfully oblivious of the whole thing.

It is the transmissibility of the virus which contributes to the danger presented by it and being vaccinated does reduce transmissibility. I was not only glad to be vaccinated for my own health but in the knowledge that by doing so I was helping others.

[binneu]

Not testing enough makes the mortality rate appear higher not lower. The denominator is number of proven cases.

In the example I gave, you have a comparison of 100,000 people who are unvaccinated and 100,000 people who are vaccinated. Of the first group, 190 end up in the hospital. Of the second group 19 end up in the hospital. It has nothing to do with testing. People end up in the hospital because they can't breathe and usually need oxygen at that point.

When people in their 20s and 30s get fever, shortness of breath, and a cough and then die three weeks later from lung damage testing is besides the point. But if you didn't get the previous point about excess mortality and the fact that there are simply more deaths from all causes worldwide (almost as if there's some additional cause of death out there) then you're never going to get it.


Do you have the source of this data pls?

I just can say this makes no sense to me.
At the higher ages (the people who have the risk to die) there is a vaccination quote of over 90% and the effectivity of the vaccine is 90% (according to your data)... but the number of people who died on covid is now hight as it was in August/September 2020?
(google corona israel and you get the jhu graph)

Can you explain this pls?

[binneu]

[COLOR=#202124][FONT=arial]The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus a pandemic on 11 March 2020.



As far as I know nobody is forcing you to get vaccinated, I got the impression that you have chosen not to receive the vaccine but you seem insecure about that. Your own factors such as age and underlying health conditions, which vaccine you would prefer etc. probably affect your decision. If you’ve never heard someone struggling to stop coughing incessantly for two weeks as I have as they fought it you’re probably delightfully oblivious of the whole thing.

It is the transmissibility of the virus which contributes to the danger presented by it and being vaccinated does reduce transmissibility. I was not only glad to be vaccinated for my own health but in the knowledge that by doing so I was helping others.

Did you understand my point?
People reach same age in Germany... with or without corona!
So how deadly is this you think if it doesn't change anything in your life expectancy?

No they dont force me NOW... but they will thats my bet!

And sorry... it's not sure if the transmissibility is changed by the vaccination at all.
And again I don't see any deadly virus... so the whole topic is kind of senseless to me.

[broncofan]

Do you have the source of this data pls?

I just can say this makes no sense to me.
At the higher ages (the people who have the risk to die) there is a vaccination quote of over 90% and the effectivity of the vaccine is 90% (according to your data)... but the number of people who died on covid is now hight as it was in August/September 2020?
(google corona israel and you get the jhu graph)

Can you explain this pls?
This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

Take the chart I provided you for severe cases which should be similar to the efficacy numbers for death. Someone who is 75 and vaccinated has a similar chance of getting severe disease as someone who is 40 and unvaccinated. Why is this so? Because age is the biggest risk factor for severe disease and although the 75 year old's chance of getting severe disease is 10 times lower as a result of getting vaccinated it's still higher than an immune naive 40 year old's. If Israel's elderly population had not been vaccinated before the delta wave they would be facing a much more catastrophic situation.

[filghy2]

No i just explained why the average age of death didnt change... coz they died in the same age as always.
Maybe they would have died anyway... also without this "pandemic"?
So if people get 82 years old, with or without covid... how can you say covid is dangerous if nothing changed actually?

You don't understand basic mathematical logic. Even if Covid killed one-third of the population, like the Black Death, it would not reduce the average age of death unless the average age for Covid deaths was lower than the average age for other deaths, which is not the case. Would you claim that was no big deal, just because the age composition of deaths was the same?


Again... I question the test and the assessment of the danger. That's why all the vaccination dissections are relatively pointless.
Why should I vaccinate myself against something I don't think is dangerous.

Since the test isn't really any good, you can't determine mortality.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, but do you have any actual evidence for this claim that the test is useless? No test is 100% accurate, but anyway uncertainty can cut both ways (making it more or less deadly).

[Stavros]

All this talk of death to me misses one of the crucial aspects of Covid-19- sickness leading to hospitalisation and its long term impact on the individual’s health.

I don’t know what the problem is with vaccines, they are free and they work, but I do see a political stunt that is intended to undermine the purpose of government, not to intervene in your personal life, but to offer the citizen security against a public health threat.

But in countries fortunate enough to have vaccination campaigns, the crisis is not one of mortality but infection and its treatment. In those states in the US that have been led by disciples of Taliban Trump, the hospital sector is reeling from a surge of infections, either of those adults not vaccinated, or of children and young people who have not been vaccinated as a matter of public policy. Elsewhere, as in the UK and Israel, it is the Delta variant that is causing concern and a rise in cases.

Covid-19 is not just a matter of death, but of life and death where the quality of life is diminished and may be for months following a patient’s discharge from hospital. Hence the importance of vaccination to prevent the illness from causing harm.

[binneu]

This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

Take the chart I provided you for severe cases which should be similar to the efficacy numbers for death. Someone who is 75 and vaccinated has a similar chance of getting severe disease as someone who is 40 and unvaccinated. Why is this so? Because age is the biggest risk factor for severe disease and although the 75 year old's chance of getting severe disease is 10 times lower as a result of getting vaccinated it's still higher than an immune naive 40 year old's. If Israel's elderly population had not been vaccinated before the delta wave they would be facing a much more catastrophic situation.

Ok ok ok... lets make it short and simple.

You want to tell me that vaccination protects from a severe course (90% at older ages) but it does not protect from dying?

(let's clarify this and then talk about the validity of the test and the origin of the hospitalization and death figures... i would rather do it the other way around but ok)

[filghy2]

This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

I had never heard of Simpson's paradox before. It only seems like a paradox until you realise that the overall average depends on the number of bats in each year. Jeter had a lot of at-bats in his best year and few in his worst year; for Justice it was the opposite.

The issue that is explained so well in your linked article is also known as endogeneity bias. If two variables of interest (vaccination and hospitalisation/death rates) and strongly related to a third variable (age), then the data will give a misleading picture unless the third variable is controlled for.

But it appears that the likelihood of our friend understanding this is roughly zero.

[binneu]

All this talk of death to me misses one of the crucial aspects of Covid-19- sickness leading to hospitalisation and its long term impact on the individual’s health.

I don’t know what the problem is with vaccines, they are free and they work, but I do see a political stunt that is intended to undermine the purpose of government, not to intervene in your personal life, but to offer the citizen security against a public health threat.

But in countries fortunate enough to have vaccination campaigns, the crisis is not one of mortality but infection and its treatment. In those states in the US that have been led by disciples of Taliban Trump, the hospital sector is reeling from a surge of infections, either of those adults not vaccinated, or of children and young people who have not been vaccinated as a matter of public policy. Elsewhere, as in the UK and Israel, it is the Delta variant that is causing concern and a rise in cases.

Covid-19 is not just a matter of death, but of life and death where the quality of life is diminished and may be for months following a patient’s discharge from hospital. Hence the importance of vaccination to prevent the illness from causing harm.

Coz the mainstream media and politics are talking about death counts.
Thats why we dicuss this topic here i would say.

And the vaccination is by no means free... I pay for it with my taxes! And how good it works is obviously not that easy. I say we dont even have a dangerous pandemic... so how you wanna evaluate the effectiveness?

1338049

[filghy2]

Dont get me wrong im already lil pissed of talking always same and getting no real arguments.

You started out complaining about getting no arguments, yet when people go to the trouble of explaining something you dismiss it without much attempt to understand the point. Maybe you don't have the mathematical skills to understand, but that's a reason to take note of experts, not to arrogantly insist that you know better.

You seem interested only in cherry-picking bits of information you think support your argument, while ignoring everything else. Given that, there is little point in further discussion.

[binneu]

You call me arrogant in the same sentence in which you deny me mathematical skills (which you claim to have)?
Just for the information I have a technical engineering education, I can read graphs and calculate percentages.
My problem is not the number crunching but the exact definition of the data. What exactly is a "severe case"? In the article the term "severe disease" is used 41 times but not described exactly how it is defined. Are these people hospitalized WITH or BECAUSE of Corona? Is a positive-tested cancer patient or accident victim a "severe case"? And if so, are vaccinated cancer patients tested for Corona to the same degree as unvaccinated?
I can't figure this out from here, even the best mathematical skills won't help!
(even if I look one level deeper I can't find how exactly the "severe cases" are defined https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general)

Why I ask all this? Because it just doesn't make sense! The vaccination protects against ending up in the hospital but not against dying? (the absolute "cases" and "deaths" in August 2021 are above or at the same level as in August 2020).

Therefore I would want to clarify nevertheless first the question "Did we have in 2020 an excess mortality or not?" Therefore I want to look first back to 2020 and consider as simple data as possible (excess mortality). But unfortunately, arguments with lockdown, masks and vaccinations were immediately brought up here, which only confuses us unnecessarily with the question "do we have an excess mortality or not?".

And one more thing:
What amazes me the most, we had the almost same situation before in 2009! Back then the pandemic turned out to be a hoax and vaccination did more harm than good. And in 2020, the same people are spreading the same panic again (and enriching themselves along the way) and no one is even questioning it! This gullibility is completely incomprehensible for me...
https://th-th.facebook.com/3LRaetica/videos/profiteure-der-angst-sars-massenhysterie-2009-eine-dokumentation-von-artendr-mit/1166515503817312/

[Stavros]

I think you understood my point, of course we know taxes fund vaccines that are free at the time of need.

There has been controversy over the causes of death for as long as I have been around, and that is a long time. A child in West Africa dies from Malaria, but the medical report might state it was liver failure- but would the liver have failed had the child not been bitten by an infected mosquito?

A man dies when a bullet shatters his internal organs, as stated in the autopsy report, but would have lived had another man not shot him. What was the cause of death?

It is tiresome to read the garbage about Covid-19 and other diseases when there is an absence of science engaging with science, but hysterical controversies generated by viewing science through the prism of politics, and often from people whose views are more autocratic that the Government to which they are opposed, along with taxes, climate change, gender identity, immigration and whichever pet peeve is available to depict the end of civilisation.

Thus it comes as no surprise to find your 2009 German documentary begins with the hysterical nonsense that two vaccines were developed for swine flu, one for the elite the other for the masses. The makers probably knew both vaccines were ordered before the differences in regard that additives was known, but chose to ignore it to promote their politics rather than the truth.

http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1932366,00.html

[binneu]

I think you understood my point, of course we know taxes fund vaccines that are free at the time of need.

There has been controversy over the causes of death for as long as I have been around, and that is a long time. A child in West Africa dies from Malaria, but the medical report might state it was liver failure- but would the liver have failed had the child not been bitten by an infected mosquito?

A man dies when a bullet shatters his internal organs, as stated in the autopsy report, but would have lived had another man not shot him. What was the cause of death?

It is tiresome to read the garbage about Covid-19 and other diseases when there is an absence of science engaging with science, but hysterical controversies generated by viewing science through the prism of politics, and often from people whose views are more autocratic that the Government to which they are opposed, along with taxes, climate change, gender identity, immigration and whichever pet peeve is available to depict the end of civilisation.

Thus it comes as no surprise to find your 2009 German documentary begins with the hysterical nonsense that two vaccines were developed for swine flu, one for the elite the other for the masses. The makers probably knew both vaccines were ordered before the differences in regard that additives was known, but chose to ignore it to promote their politics rather than the truth.

http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1932366,00.html

I am well aware of the problem with the cause of death. Unfortunately, Corona pretends to know the cause of death even without further examinations (this was explicitly advised against by the WHO).
If a multimodal, elderly patient dies in hospital and his test is positive, then he immediately goes into the Corona mortality statistic. Is this a sensible procedure? Couldn't one at least note the ct-value or better use a multitest and see which viruses are still detectable in which concentration?
And it gets even better... if the test of a person was positive in the last 28 days and this person then suffers a motorcycle accident and dies, then this is also a case for the Corona-Sterbe-Statistk.
You're right, determining the cause of death is complicated.... but at Corona they don't even bother to clarify. It rather gives the impression as if one wants to pull up the numbers artificially...

A real scientific discussion is suppressed. Everyone who wants to question the Corona narrative is insulted and censored. This gives the impression that there is no doubt about the narrative. This is exactly the opposite of scientificity...

Yes, you are free to believe that it was not known to the politicians. I would say that too, of course, but after all the fraud about H1N1 I find it hard to believe these people... we will probably never find out conclusively. And why does this documentary start with that? Because this topic became public in Germany at that time (when the documentary was broadcasted)... this should be a current topic as an introduction.

[broncofan]

binneu, I've engaged you without being insulting to this point but I have to say you're a very determined idiot. Protection against death is not determined by comparing number of deaths at two points in time but comparing the rate of death for vaccinated and unvaccinated people at the same point in time.

There is now a much more transmissible variant in circulation (which is one of many reasons not to make the comparison across time) but even if there weren't the point is to compare cohorts who, except for their vaccination status, have the same or similar risks. Every country has enough unvaccinated people that stats are available for risk of death per 100,000 people separated by vaccination status.

I see you are once again questioning whether people who die of covid are really dying of covid. Could you even tell me what the point of excess death stats is? Do you think doctors are clueless when it comes to disease pathology or that it's just a coincidence that people die of lung damage and acute kidney failure three weeks after testing positive for covid?

Swine flu was nothing like covid. It was more than 10 times less deadly and had a much lower death toll by the end of it. You don't need to be a mathematician but simple things like the difference between a gross figure and a rate seem to elude you.

[broncofan]

By the way there are a number of estimates of excess deaths for 2020. It's much easier to generate these estimates in individual countries than worldwide since there are some data gaps worldwide. But the US has consistently had excess deaths that are greater than reported covid deaths. Here is a link that contains data sets from multiple organizations if you're interested. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Most countries had excess deaths that were much greater than number of reported covid deaths. In a few countries there were fewer deaths but these tended to be countries with a low reported covid death toll. The best explanation would be that extreme measures to avoid covid transmission probably suppressed other disease transmission and reduced other risk factors for death. But the majority of countries had significant excess death numbers.

[diddyboponTOP]

I'm all Coronavirus talk TF out, I'm tired of the shut downs the masks and all of it in General
I'm not one who believes in the nonsense anyway it's just a flu period!

[binneu]

binneu, I've engaged you without being insulting to this point but I have to say you're a very determined idiot. Protection against death is not determined by comparing number of deaths at two points in time but comparing the rate of death for vaccinated and unvaccinated people at the same point in time.

There is now a much more transmissible variant in circulation (which is one of many reasons not to make the comparison across time) but even if there weren't the point is to compare cohorts who, except for their vaccination status, have the same or similar risks. Every country has enough unvaccinated people that stats are available for risk of death per 100,000 people separated by vaccination status.

I see you are once again questioning whether people who die of covid are really dying of covid. Could you even tell me what the point of excess death stats is? Do you think doctors are clueless when it comes to disease pathology or that it's just a coincidence that people die of lung damage and acute kidney failure three weeks after testing positive for covid?

Swine flu was nothing like covid. It was more than 10 times less deadly and had a much lower death toll by the end of it. You don't need to be a mathematician but simple things like the difference between a gross figure and a rate seem to elude you.

Oh yes, the entire human race is divided and the discussion is so morally charged that you call me an idiot just because I question your narrative. I am not calling you an idiot, you are just a victim of a modern highly effective propaganda machine!


I repeat myself... in 2020 there were no vaccines in Germany and still no excess mortality! (have a look at my table)
And do not tell me the fairy tale of the measures! The measures should have worked in Germany but not in France and Spain, for example (there the measures were usually even stricter)? And it is also interesting that the measures have prevented the complete flu, but nevertheless millions of Corona cases could not prevent. Doesn't that make you a bit suspicious?

I never claimed to know the whole truth! The only truth is what the corona believers, politicians and mainstream media claim to know. All I want is a fundamental discussion about the inconsistencies!


That the swine flu is harmless, we found out only after a few months!At the beginning, the same people as today have created the same panic and vaccination propaganda! And the people who were right at that time and have enlightened are denigrated today as conspiracy theorists. The fact that you can be fooled by the same people with the same methods again, borders on madness...

[diddyboponTOP]

Oh yes, the entire human race is divided and the discussion is so morally charged that you call me an idiot just because I question your narrative. I am not calling you an idiot, you are just a victim of a modern highly effective propaganda machine!


I repeat myself... in 2020 there were no vaccines in Germany and still no excess mortality! (have a look at my table)
And do not tell me the fairy tale of the measures! The measures should have worked in Germany but not in France and Spain, for example (there the measures were usually even stricter)? And it is also interesting that the measures have prevented the complete flu, but nevertheless millions of Corona cases could not prevent. Doesn't that make you a bit suspicious?

I never claimed to know the whole truth! The only truth is what the corona believers, politicians and mainstream media claim to know. All I want is a fundamental discussion about the inconsistencies!


That the swine flu is harmless, we found out only after a few months!At the beginning, the same people as today have created the same panic and vaccination propaganda! And the people who were right at that time and have enlightened are denigrated today as conspiracy theorists. The fact that you can be fooled by the same people with the same methods again, borders on madness...

Most of the world has always listened to the so called Expert's and fake Media this whole Corona this is a sham and idiots all fell for it it showed how quickly the whole human race will bow down and become Sheep, allowed all the stores and jobs to be closed churches hiding in their homes wearing dumb masks. Most humans are weak mindless fools and this once again proved it, as an Occultist I know the whole human History taught in schools is wrong and we have been falling for fake news since the written word! Im so fed up over this i recently beat a security guard with a chair in a libary for harassing me over my mask I had it over my mouth but not my nose there wasn't anyone with in 20 feet of me and 6 is supposed to the so called distance needed and in tired of this already, I'll prob have to do a year or two in prison but it was fun beating him and letting my Corona aggression out so I could care less two years goes fast inside got about 18 all together in and out.

[rodinuk]

You see you make a statement saying that
Swine flu is harmless but in the UK there were 457 deaths resulting from people contracting the virus. When a new strain of a disease presents itself which is highly transmissible then the authorities would have to act quickly and perhaps in a somewhat draconian fashion to control that transmission while a remedy is sought.

The World Health Organisation defined a severe case of Covid-19 as the patient having severe pneumonia although there are other definitions by others related to respiratory rate etc.

Lockdowns (measures) did work in the UK to at least some extent in reducing the spread of disease by reducing the R number to manageable rates thereby preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed.

[Stavros]

Most of the world has always listened to the so called Expert's and fake Media this whole Corona this is a sham and idiots all fell for it it showed how quickly the whole human race will bow down and become Sheep, allowed all the stores and jobs to be closed churches hiding in their homes wearing dumb masks. Most humans are weak mindless fools and this once again proved it, as an Occultist I know the whole human History taught in schools is wrong and we have been falling for fake news since the written word! Im so fed up over this i recently beat a security guard with a chair in a libary for harassing me over my mask I had it over my mouth but not my nose there wasn't anyone with in 20 feet of me and 6 is supposed to the so called distance needed and in tired of this already, I'll prob have to do a year or two in prison but it was fun beating him and letting my Corona aggression out so I could care less two years goes fast inside got about 18 all together in and out.

Guess you’ve been fucked by your chakras-?

[Stavros]

A real scientific discussion is suppressed. Everyone who wants to question the Corona narrative is insulted and censored. This gives the impression that there is no doubt about the narrative. This is exactly the opposite of scientificity...


From where I sit most of the insults and abuse have been directed by born again morons at people like Dr Fauci, an avoidance of scientific debate at every level, and not just courtesy of Matt Gaetz. Jonathan Tam was filmed answering pertinent questions from the public on Channel 4 News earlier this year, and multiple links to scholarly articles on Covid-19 have been provided in this discussion in the Politics & Religion section.

I fear you are on a futile quest for a scientific purity that doesn’t exist, and that whatever political bias you have has prevented you from separating the two. None of us benefits from this. Covid-19 is a virus, we understand how it works, we know how to mimimise its risks, we are aware of its actual and potential risks.

But as ever, a great deal depends on human behaviour. Vaccination and immunisation have ended the curse of Smallpox, it has all but eradicated or helped control diseases such as Polio, TB, River Blindness and many others, yet suddenly our cherished freedoms are at risk because a tried and tested regime is being imposed on us? Not as far as I am concerned.

[binneu]

You see you make a statement saying that but in the UK there were 457 deaths resulting from people contracting the virus.


Would you say that a beer is dangerous, or a cake? Do you know how many people die every year from alcoholism or diabetes? It seems to me that any proportionality and reason has been lost here!



When a new strain of a disease presents itself which is highly transmissible then the authorities would have to act quickly and perhaps in a somewhat draconian fashion to control that transmission while a remedy is sought.


Oh, so does the state have to? Who says that? I did not ask him for it! Should the state now eliminate any risk in life and protect you from everything that could threaten you?
That is not the task of the state! The state has to make sure that the health care system works, that's what I pay it for with my taxes. That the state nowadays forbids me to leave my apartment at night is just presumptuous!



The World Health Organisation defined a severe case of Covid-19 as the patient having severe pneumonia although there are other definitions by others related to respiratory rate etc.


In addition I found nothing! But you can gladly send me a link...



Lockdowns (measures) did work in the UK to at least some extent in reducing the spread of disease by reducing the R number to manageable rates thereby preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Who says that? The people who have imposed these lockdowns? Look at the R-value of Germany: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/grafik-effektive-reproduktionszahl-r-wie-viele-menschen-ein-infizierter-durchschnittlich-ansteckt/25765328/5-format43.jpg
The R-Was already at the low when the lockdown was imposed (March 23). And the mask duty was imposed right outside the chart, at the end of April.

[binneu]

From where I sit most of the insults and abuse have been directed by born again morons at people like Dr Fauci, an avoidance of scientific debate at every level, and not just courtesy of Matt Gaetz. Jonathan Tam was filmed answering pertinent questions from the public on Channel 4 News earlier this year, and multiple links to scholarly articles on Covid-19 have been provided in this discussion in the Politics & Religion section.


I am not aware of any insults or name-calling, nor will this occur, since the critics do not get a chance to speak in public.
In Germany, there was an "investigative committee" on the subject of Corona.However, this was held in camera, video and audio recordings were prohibited (there were only a few statements by journalists). Questions were asked only by a few politicians, there was no deep, scientific debate.



I fear you are on a futile quest for a scientific purity that doesn’t exist, and that whatever political bias you have has prevented you from separating the two. None of us benefits from this. Covid-19 is a virus, we understand how it works, we know how to mimimise its risks, we are aware of its actual and potential risks.


I am aware that "science" is always fraught with vagueness and uncertainty. Moreover, "science" is to a certain extent both politically influenceable and for sale (unfortunately). However, the one-sidedness and censorship in the case of Corona is unprecedented in recent times.
I am not aware of any insults or name-calling, nor will this occur, since the critics do not get a chance to speak in public.



But as ever, a great deal depends on human behaviour. Vaccination and immunisation have ended the curse of Smallpox, it has all but eradicated or helped control diseases such as Polio, TB, River Blindness and many others, yet suddenly our cherished freedoms are at risk because a tried and tested regime is being imposed on us? Not as far as I am concerned.

You can see that as you want! I can only tell you that the diseases mentioned have never needed coercion or restriction to end and that mRNA vaccines have never been widely used. Risks and long-term effects are simply unknown. You can see this from the fact that just a few months ago we were promised "freedom" and "cure" after the second vaccination. And today, a few months later, they are already talking about the third and fourth vaccination.
And what do you want to do with the people who refuse? Do you want to deny them grocery shopping, take away their jobs, lock them up, kick down their doors and vaccinate them by force? At what point does it become totalitarian? Or have we already arrived...

[binneu]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09maaUaRT4M&t=1062s&ab_channel=AfterSkool

[rodinuk]

Would you say that a beer is dangerous, or a cake? Do you know how many people die every year from alcoholism or diabetes? It seems to me that any proportionality and reason has been lost here!

Yes I do know for the UK.

Alcohol 2020 figures were 7423 deaths https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/alcohol-related-harm-and-drinking-behaviour-1

Diabetes 2019 figures were 13,951 deaths
https://www.statista.com/topics/3132/diabetes-in-the-united-kingdom/

Coronavirus Feb 2019 to now is 156,888 deaths so 52,000+ yearly
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths





The World Health Organisation defined a severe case of Covid-19 as the patient having severe pneumonia although there are other definitions by others related to respiratory rate etc.


In addition I found nothing! But you can gladly send me a link...

so here is the link for you...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307401


The USA NationalInstitute of Health uses this empirical definition:

Severe Illness: Individuals who have SpO2 <94% on room air at sea level, a ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) <300 mm Hg, respiratory frequency >30 breaths/min, or lung infiltrates >50%.

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/overview/clinical-spectrum/


Here’s a lady who didn’t opt for the jab:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-58481626

[Stavros]

I am not aware of any insults or name-calling, nor will this occur, since the critics do not get a chance to speak in public.

- House Representative Matt Gaetz described Dr Fauci as a “snivelling little twit”.

- Trump ridiculed Fauci as a "disaster" and an "idiot" (http://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-coronavirus/index.html) who has been around for "500 years" -

Who silenced Nancy Messonier when she warned of the potential impact of Covid-19 on the USA?

https://www.cjr.org/analysis/cdc-pandemic-transparency-comment-access.php

And what do you want to do with the people who refuse? Do you want to deny them grocery shopping, take away their jobs, lock them up, kick down their doors and vaccinate them by force? At what point does it become totalitarian? Or have we already arrived...

- the rational person listens to the presentation of evidence. Some, perhaps many - too many- experience Covid-19 directly, or have experience of disease in the family, or are aware they have been vaccinated as children, their children have been vaccinated, and yes, listen to experts and the Government, just as I hope when your teeth ache you don’t seek the advice of a bricklayer.

But it seems that reason has taken a back seat in both the UK and the US, and as a consequence, people are ill, they are in hospital, some have died. Your call.

[binneu]

Yes I do know for the UK.

Alcohol 2020 figures were 7423 deaths https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/alcohol-related-harm-and-drinking-behaviour-1

Diabetes 2019 figures were 13,951 deaths
https://www.statista.com/topics/3132/diabetes-in-the-united-kingdom/

Coronavirus Feb 2019 to now is 156,888 deaths so 52,000+ yearly
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths


so here is the link for you...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307401


The USA NationalInstitute of Health uses this empirical definition:

Severe Illness: Individuals who have SpO2 <94% on room air at sea level, a ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) <300 mm Hg, respiratory frequency >30 breaths/min, or lung infiltrates >50%.

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/overview/clinical-spectrum/


Here’s a lady who didn’t opt for the jab:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-58481626

I showed you the table from Germany. No more people died in 2020 than usual! In Germany, the deaths are even explicitly declared as having died WITH Corona (and not because of it).

And in England or Italy... I can't tell you conclusively what exactly happened there. I would like to know that too. But nobody seems to want to clarify why there were recognizable excess mortalities in some countries.
But there are indications that in the rush and panic there were massive mishandlings.
https://www.rubikon.news/artikel/die-medikamenten-tragodie
You must also realize that, Corona does not seem to have taken place in half of the European countries?
(https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps)

I can only tell you that the simple story that the mainstream/politics tells us cannot be true! (Corona is new and extremely dangerous - in the short term only lockdowns, masks and dismantling of basic rights help - in the long term you must be vaccinated several times a year and constantly monitored - but the old normality will never come back)

Nevertheless, I can't see on the Israeli website what criteria are used to define the "serious cases".

[binneu]

I am not aware of any insults or name-calling, nor will this occur, since the critics do not get a chance to speak in public.

- House Representative Matt Gaetz described Dr Fauci as a “snivelling little twit”.

- Trump ridiculed Fauci as a "disaster" and an "idiot" (http://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-coronavirus/index.html) who has been around for "500 years" -

Who silenced Nancy Messonier when she warned of the potential impact of Covid-19 on the USA?

https://www.cjr.org/analysis/cdc-pandemic-transparency-comment-access.php



And what do you want to do with the people who refuse? Do you want to deny them grocery shopping, take away their jobs, lock them up, kick down their doors and vaccinate them by force? At what point does it become totalitarian? Or have we already arrived...


- the rational person listens to the presentation of evidence. Some, perhaps many - too many- experience Covid-19 directly, or have experience of disease in the family, or are aware they have been vaccinated as children, their children have been vaccinated, and yes, listen to experts and the Government, just as I hope when your teeth ache you don’t seek the advice of a bricklayer.

But it seems that reason has taken a back seat in both the UK and the US, and as a consequence, people are ill, they are in hospital, some have died. Your call.

Who is Matt Gaetz?
Why isn't Fauci discussing this with Ioannidis or another scientist?

And in my eyes Fauci is, sorry, moron!
Who publicly equates himself with "the science" can hardly be called otherwise.

I have given them proofs for Germany! And I also listen to experts, just other experts than you!

[broncofan]

I repeat myself... in 2020 there were no vaccines in Germany and still no excess mortality! (have a look at my table)
And do not tell me the fairy tale of the measures! The measures should have worked in Germany but not in France and Spain, for example (there the measures were usually even stricter)? And it is also interesting that the measures have prevented the complete flu, but nevertheless millions of Corona cases could not prevent. Doesn't that make you a bit suspicious?
It doesn't make me suspicious because it's easy to explain why. Measures that are only somewhat effective for covid completely suppress flu. Flu has an r0 of about 1.3 while delta variant is estimated to be between 5 and 8.

Further, Germany did have excess mortality according to the table. It had 68,000 deaths more than usual but it was in the minority in that its excess deaths were less than its recorded covid deaths. Germany is not the only country in the world. Russia had 650,000 excess deaths, which was 500,000 more than its recorded covid deaths. Look at the numbers for Mexico and U.S. Between these three countries you had more than 800,000 more excess deaths than recorded covid cases.

Your trick is to ignore 90% of what is out there, to then make broad characterizations that are not true, and to emphasize the one or two data points that you think sow confusion. You are not the first person to do this.

You're called a conspiracy theorist because that is what you are. You believe doctors are fabricating cause of death or that you know better than they do and that governments somehow benefit from people wearing masks. Yet many right-wing authoritarian figures like Bolsonaro have been singing the same tune you're singing. If you add up the excess deaths in the chart I provided you there is not only enormous excess death on average, but greater excess death than recorded covid cases. This means that the 4.5 million recorded deaths is likely an underestimate.

[binneu]

It doesn't make me suspicious because it's easy to explain why. Measures that are only somewhat effective for covid completely suppress flu. Flu has an r0 of about 1.3 while delta variant is estimated to be between 5 and 8.


You can safely forget about the R0. The R0 for influenza is determined by the number of people with symptoms and for Corona by the number of people with positive Corona PCR tests (regardless of symptoms). If you were to use PCRs for influenza as well, then the R0 would be significantly higher.



Further, Germany did have excess mortality according to the table. It had 68,000 deaths more than usual but it was in the minority in that its excess deaths were less than its recorded covid deaths. Germany is not the only country in the world. Russia had 650,000 excess deaths, which was 500,000 more than its recorded covid deaths. Look at the numbers for Mexico and U.S. Between these three countries you had more than 800,000 more excess deaths than recorded covid cases.


I refer to Germany because I know the data here and understand the evaluations. Reports and sources in Russian, Hebrew, Arabic... make the analysis extremely tedious.
I have attached a table in which you can see a normalized evaluation (and a link). But you do not want to take note of them and accuse me of ignoring data?



Your trick is to ignore 90% of what is out there, to then make broad characterizations that are not true, and to emphasize the one or two data points that you think sow confusion. You are not the first person to do this.


I see very well that even I do not have a clear picture yet! I see that with the European countries with approx. 50% an excess mortality is recognizable (sometimes more sometimes less) and with approx. 50% not. I would like to have an explanation to this but from official side this fact is more or less ignored.
An explanation would be this, or do you have one?
https://www.rubikon.news/artikel/die...enten-tragodie
One could compare the treatment methods in the individual countries with the excess mortalities.



You're called a conspiracy theorist because that is what you are. You believe doctors are fabricating cause of death or that you know better than they do and that governments somehow benefit from people wearing masks. Yet many right-wing authoritarian figures like Bolsonaro have been singing the same tune you're singing. If you add up the excess deaths in the chart I provided you there is not only enormous excess death on average, but greater excess death than recorded covid cases. This means that the 4.5 million recorded deaths is likely an underestimate.

There is no deliberate falsification here. The symptoms of Corona are almost identical to those of influenza and other diseases. Since we in Germany (again for the reasons mentioned above) have no excess mortality, it can be assumed that many deaths were/are falsely declared as Corona deaths. Even a positive test within the last 5 weeks is enough for these people to be included in the statistics.


And one more thing, I'm trying to stay with Germany in 2020. I'm always tempted to jump back and forth, but I try to avoid it. In science, one example is enough to disprove a theory. But since we don't even manage to agree on one single metric (excess mortality) in one single country (Germany), we don't need to jump back and forth over different countries and different metrics!

1338637

[broncofan]

You can safely forget about the R0. The R0 for influenza is determined by the number of people with symptoms and for Corona by the number of people with positive Corona PCR tests (regardless of symptoms). If you were to use PCRs for influenza as well, then the R0 would be significantly higher.



I refer to Germany because I know the data here and understand the evaluations. Reports and sources in Russian, Hebrew, Arabic... make the analysis extremely tedious.
I have attached a table in which you can see a normalized evaluation (and a link). But you do not want to take note of them and accuse me of ignoring data?



I see very well that even I do not have a clear picture yet! I see that with the European countries with approx. 50% an excess mortality is recognizable (sometimes more sometimes less) and with approx. 50% not. I would like to have an explanation to this but from official side this fact is more or less ignored.
An explanation would be this, or do you have one?
https://www.rubikon.news/artikel/die...enten-tragodie
One could compare the treatment methods in the individual countries with the excess mortalities.



There is no deliberate falsification here. The symptoms of Corona are almost identical to those of influenza and other diseases. Since we in Germany (again for the reasons mentioned above) have no excess mortality, it can be assumed that many deaths were/are falsely declared as Corona deaths. Even a positive test within the last 5 weeks is enough for these people to be included in the statistics.


And one more thing, I'm trying to stay with Germany in 2020. I'm always tempted to jump back and forth, but I try to avoid it. In science, one example is enough to disprove a theory. But since we don't even manage to agree on one single metric (excess mortality) in one single country (Germany), we don't need to jump back and forth over different countries and different metrics!

1338637
R0-When covid first emerged most countries did not have the testing capacity to routinely test people without symptoms. Only people sequestered on cruise ships or prime ministers were tested based on contacts. In the U.S. even people with symptoms could not get tested and many people died while waiting for test results. It was at this point that the R0 for the original strain of sars-cov-2 was estimated as being about double the R0 of influenza. By the way there are serology studies that estimate the rate of asymptomatic influenza infection so it's not like virologists are only aware of case numbers for either virus. What is it you think they do all day?

Second, you asked why flu was suppressed when covid wasn't. You were provided a reason that is completely consistent with observed transmission patterns for both viruses. Namely that influenza spreads in droplets and has a low basic reproduction number and that the original strain of sars-cov-2 also spreads in droplets but at times appears to infect people across greater distances. There's been a lot of discussion about delta spreading through aerosols and studies have been done showing it can linger in the air longer than influenza.

You say "in science one example is enough to disprove a theory." Your problem is you don't actually articulate the theory you think you're falsifying. My claim wasn't that every single country has large excess death numbers, only that most do, and most also have excess death numbers that are greater than recorded covid cases. Showing Germany's numbers would not falsify that statement. It's an example of cherry-picking data to fit a conclusion you want to believe.

Just as scientists acknowledge that sometimes excess deaths are greater than recorded cases for reasons other than underreporting (an indirect toll of the pandemic), there is the possibility that case numbers are greater than excess deaths for indirect reasons as well (such as people being more cautious, fewer deaths from other respiratory diseases, etc). It is the outliers like the U.S., Mexico, and Russia that strongly indicate underestimates of death from covid because the disparity is so great.

You say that covid and flu are almost identical in symptoms. Most respiratory diseases can cause fever, cough, headache, sore throat. Why is this surprising? Some of these symptoms are caused directly by infection but some are also caused by your innate immune response to an infection. On the other hand Covid causes loss of smell and taste, severe lung damage, kidney failure, blood clotting. It's also more than ten times as deadly. But then you don't trust pcr tests that look for viral rna, you don't trust doctors, you don't trust health agencies.

[broncofan]

Just to clarify you don't think doctors can be trusted to determine cause of death most of the time. You don't think virologists know how to estimate R0 of viruses because they didn't consider something as basic as testing capacity. You think health agencies of most countries are falsifying data. You think there is a conspiracy to label influenza cases as covid cases or that there aren't useful tests to tell the difference (what do you think a pcr test is?). I really don't know how you get out of bed in the morning with all these people coming together to deceive you with no obvious motive.

I think you want to look at only one country so you can regurgitate propaganda from that crackpot rubikon site you linked here.

[filghy2]

Further, Germany did have excess mortality according to the table. It had 68,000 deaths more than usual but it was in the minority in that its excess deaths were less than its recorded covid deaths. Germany is not the only country in the world.

It's also worth noting that nearly two-thirds of the Covid deaths in Germany so far have occurred in 2021. https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/germany This guy not only wants to focus on only one country but also the one year that is more favourable.

[filghy2]

In science, one example is enough to disprove a theory.

Whatever mathematical skills you might have, you don't seem to have much understanding of probability. Would you also claim that examples of life-time smokers who never get lung cancer disprove any link between smoking and lung cancer? One example only disproves a theory if it's a theory about universal laws. Scientific method requires theories to be tested against a good range of data.

The lung cancer analogy is not accidental because you are using the same techniques that have always been used by science denialists, from the tobacco industry in the past to the climate change denialists now. I'm willing to bet you are also one of those.

[filghy2]

You can safely forget about the R0. The R0 for influenza is determined by the number of people with symptoms and for Corona by the number of people with positive Corona PCR tests (regardless of symptoms). If you were to use PCRs for influenza as well, then the R0 would be significantly higher.

If the R0 for influenza was really much higher we should have seen much higher flu deaths. Or do you think the same conspiracy to exaggerate Covid deaths has also been understating flu deaths all these years?

[Stavros]

Who is Matt Gaetz?


And in my eyes Fauci is, sorry, moron!


Don’t be sorry, be sensible. Have a nice day.

[filghy2]

I see very well that even I do not have a clear picture yet! I see that with the European countries with approx. 50% an excess mortality is recognizable (sometimes more sometimes less) and with approx. 50% not. I would like to have an explanation to this but from official side this fact is more or less ignored.

For a person with science-related training your approach is very unscientific. There are obviously a number of reasons why death rates could be expected to vary between countries, including:
- age structure of the population (more elderly means more deaths)
- geographical proximity to countries initially worst-affected
- effectiveness of measures to control the virus
- population density and household size
- quality of medical system

Which of these possibilities seems more plausible:
(a) death rates were reduced in many countries by some combination of these factors; or
(b) the virus wasn't dangerous in the first place?

If it's (b) then what would explain the higher death rates in many countries?

I'm not sure what branch of engineering you are in, but would you argue that cases of failures in some piece of construction were not a problem because there were also cases where it did not fail?

You also seem to misunderstand the excess mortality data. It's a calculation based on the average number of deaths, which obviously vary from year to year even in normal times. A such, it is only general guide. We know that some other sources of death have been lower than normal due to Covid - eg flu deaths have been low because people are not mixing and road deaths have been low because they are not driving so much.

It's also pretty funny that you made an excuse not to look at other countries because of language differences, even though you keep posting links that are in German.

[binneu]

R0-When covid first emerged most countries did not have the testing capacity to routinely test people without symptoms. Only people sequestered on cruise ships or prime ministers were tested based on contacts. In the U.S. even people with symptoms could not get tested and many people died while waiting for test results. It was at this point that the R0 for the original strain of sars-cov-2 was estimated as being about double the R0 of influenza. By the way there are serology studies that estimate the rate of asymptomatic influenza infection so it's not like virologists are only aware of case numbers for either virus. What is it you think they do all day?

Second, you asked why flu was suppressed when covid wasn't. You were provided a reason that is completely consistent with observed transmission patterns for both viruses. Namely that influenza spreads in droplets and has a low basic reproduction number and that the original strain of sars-cov-2 also spreads in droplets but at times appears to infect people across greater distances. There's been a lot of discussion about delta spreading through aerosols and studies have been done showing it can linger in the air longer than influenza.

You say "in science one example is enough to disprove a theory." Your problem is you don't actually articulate the theory you think you're falsifying. My claim wasn't that every single country has large excess death numbers, only that most do, and most also have excess death numbers that are greater than recorded covid cases. Showing Germany's numbers would not falsify that statement. It's an example of cherry-picking data to fit a conclusion you want to believe.

Just as scientists acknowledge that sometimes excess deaths are greater than recorded cases for reasons other than underreporting (an indirect toll of the pandemic), there is the possibility that case numbers are greater than excess deaths for indirect reasons as well (such as people being more cautious, fewer deaths from other respiratory diseases, etc). It is the outliers like the U.S., Mexico, and Russia that strongly indicate underestimates of death from covid because the disparity is so great.

You say that covid and flu are almost identical in symptoms. Most respiratory diseases can cause fever, cough, headache, sore throat. Why is this surprising? Some of these symptoms are caused directly by infection but some are also caused by your innate immune response to an infection. On the other hand Covid causes loss of smell and taste, severe lung damage, kidney failure, blood clotting. It's also more than ten times as deadly. But then you don't trust pcr tests that look for viral rna, you don't trust doctors, you don't trust health agencies.

Just to make something clear! Your side of the Corona-believers wants to turn the whole world upside down (constant tests, vaccinations, lockdowns, green-passes...)! You have to prove meticulously that this is necessary and there are no other possibilities, NOT ME!

Show me the evidence for the R0 (influenza/corona) survey.
Show me what is wrong with my table on excess mortality in Germany 2020.
(the absolute values are refuted, you do not need to post them again and again).

[binneu]

For a person with science-related training your approach is very unscientific. There are obviously a number of reasons why death rates could be expected to vary between countries, including:
- age structure of the population (more elderly means more deaths)
- geographical proximity to countries initially worst-affected
- effectiveness of measures to control the virus
- population density and household size
- quality of medical system

Which of these possibilities seems more plausible:
(a) death rates were reduced in many countries by some combination of these factors; or
(b) the virus wasn't dangerous in the first place?

If it's (b) then what would explain the higher death rates in many countries?

I'm not sure what branch of engineering you are in, but would you argue that cases of failures in some piece of construction were not a problem because there were also cases where it did not fail?

You also seem to misunderstand the excess mortality data. It's a calculation based on the average number of deaths, which obviously vary from year to year even in normal times. A such, it is only general guide. We know that some other sources of death have been lower than normal due to Covid - eg flu deaths have been low because people are not mixing and road deaths have been low because they are not driving so much.

It's also pretty funny that you made an excuse not to look at other countries because of language differences, even though you keep posting links that are in German.

- Germany is a country with a relatively high average age
- Germany is located in the middle of Europe (in contrast to England, for example).
- The measures were almost everywhere in Europe the same (in Germany rather mild)
- Which medical measures were there in 2020 then go Corona? (artificial respiration helps little and is partly counterproductive, medicines there was/are not, otherwise we would need neither lockdowns nor vaccinations)

Why are there only a) and b)?
In your world this may be so, but I can also imagine c), d), etc!

[binneu]

And something for both of you! We will not agree here (about the medical aspects of Corona and how exactly they are to be classified).

But what I do see, and you both apparently don't, is that we are currently dismantling democratic structures and basic rights around the world at a rate never before seen in history.
This, not measurable and little discussed threat does not seem to interest you very much.
Even if that would be the plague I would reject such a democracy and fundamental rights dismantling! We in Germany know very well what this can lead to... and it was always pretended to want to protect us.

[rodinuk]

Just to make something clear! Your side of the Corona-believers wants to turn the whole world upside down (constant tests, vaccinations, lockdowns, green-passes...)! You have to prove meticulously that this is necessary and there are no other possibilities, NOT ME!


No one here has to prove anything to you. Your beef seems to be with the German authorities so take it up with them. If you’re only interested in German figures then don’t come here expecting users here to know about Germany.

Your paranoia however is a bit worrying and you should avoid being in a room with two doctors in....

...and you could work on not ending sentences with the ! character as it lends nothing to any shred of credibility that you may have had before you started your tirade.

[broncofan]

We in Germany know very well what this can lead to... and it was always pretended to want to protect us.
I'm just waking up here. I didn't dislike your post though I understand why others would find this distasteful.

I do think it's relevant you are from Germany since your country has done a better job of dealing with Covid than many European countries and the views you express are more popular here in the U.S. than probably anywhere else. Your chancellor has a doctorate in quantum chemistry, one of the major mrna vaccines was created in partnership with a German company called Biontech, and the ubiquity of home tests for covid in Germany is cited as a model for the rest of the world. Instead of taking pride in some of these accomplishments you see a return to the fascism of the 30s.

I think what enables fascism most, and I say it based on what I've seen in this country (the U.S.), is just a refusal to accept any conventional account of what is going on. You believe you can't understand worldwide data unless you master Arabic and Russian and Hebrew but why stop there? Why not learn Mandarin and Icelandic too? Can we even prove anyone died in these countries if we don't speak their native language? If we can't make any distinction between what is true and what is false we end up just believing whatever is most convenient, regardless of the facts. That's a million times more dangerous than being asked to wear a mask.

The thread risks turning political because you think covid is being used to dismantle fundamental rights but there isn't any evidence of that.

[broncofan]

You also seem to misunderstand the excess mortality data. It's a calculation based on the average number of deaths, which obviously vary from year to year even in normal times. A such, it is only general guide. We know that some other sources of death have been lower than normal due to Covid - eg flu deaths have been low because people are not mixing and road deaths have been low because they are not driving so much.

Good point and keeping this in mind the excess death tables show undercounting is more likely than false attribution.

I don't know what range one would expect the numbers to fall in but if we looked at a five or ten year graph for each country one could get a sense of what the variation has been. Russia has excess deaths that are five times recorded covid deaths. Mexico and U.S. showed significant differences between excess deaths and recorded covid deaths. South Africa as well.

Also, even if the overcounting equaled undercounting (which it doesn't) as binneu suggests that would only suggest that the number of deaths from covid was approximately right. That would still leave 4.5 million more people dead from a novel cause. And though I'm not going to put those numbers on a spreadsheet I did quick math and think the excess death column would be about a million people greater than the recorded covid column.

Binneu also suggests quality of medical care doesn't matter because ventilators often don't save lives (30% of people put on ventilators survive though). Most people put on ventilators do not survive but what about people who are hospitalized and given condensed oxygen without mechanical assistance? Anyone who goes to the hospital with decreased oxygen saturation is given concentrated oxygen. Places that don't have enough hospital beds or who run out of oxygen would probably see higher death rates.

[rodinuk]

Here’s a report from the UK Government comparing the relative deadliness of Covid,Influenza and pneumonia. It is in the English language.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfro minfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

[binneu]

No one here has to prove anything to you. Your beef seems to be with the German authorities so take it up with them. If you’re only interested in German figures then don’t come here expecting users here to know about Germany.

Your paranoia however is a bit worrying and you should avoid being in a room with two doctors in....

...and you could work on not ending sentences with the ! character as it lends nothing to any shred of credibility that you may have had before you started your tirade.

Because my numbers do not fit into your world view, you prefer not to talk about it.
I am still waiting for a conclusive answer (which you probably will not provide).

I have already admitted that I do not know the truth... But you and your Corona believers are obviously in possession of the only truth. And if something doesn't fit this truth (Germany over-mortality) then it is simply ignored away instead of the narrative or the course.

[binneu]

I'm just waking up here. I didn't dislike your post though I understand why others would find this distasteful.

I do think it's relevant you are from Germany since your country has done a better job of dealing with Covid than many European countries and the views you express are more popular here in the U.S. than probably anywhere else. Your chancellor has a doctorate in quantum chemistry, one of the major mrna vaccines was created in partnership with a German company called Biontech, and the ubiquity of home tests for covid in Germany is cited as a model for the rest of the world. Instead of taking pride in some of these accomplishments you see a return to the fascism of the 30s.

I think what enables fascism most, and I say it based on what I've seen in this country (the U.S.), is just a refusal to accept any conventional account of what is going on. You believe you can't understand worldwide data unless you master Arabic and Russian and Hebrew but why stop there? Why not learn Mandarin and Icelandic too? Can we even prove anyone died in these countries if we don't speak their native language? If we can't make any distinction between what is true and what is false we end up just believing whatever is most convenient, regardless of the facts. That's a million times more dangerous than being asked to wear a mask.

The thread risks turning political because you think covid is being used to dismantle fundamental rights but there isn't any evidence of that.

I did not speak of 1930, but of the DDR in East Germany.

And if they want to have proof for the abolition of the basic rights then I can send them gladly the German "Infektionsschutzgesetze"... almost all basic rights were abolished.

[binneu]

Here’s a report from the UK Government comparing the relative deadliness of Covid,Influenza and pneumonia. It is in the English language.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfro minfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

And what exactly is their conclusion now? There is a German coronavirus and a more dangerous English one?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Federal employees and employees of federal contractors must be vaccinated:
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-executive-branch-18fb12993f05be13bf760946a6fb89be

[broncofan]

Federal employees and employees of federal contractors must be vaccinated:
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-executive-branch-18fb12993f05be13bf760946a6fb89be
Good. It's about time they got their microchips.

[broncofan]

I did not speak of 1930, but of the DDR in East Germany.

And if they want to have proof for the abolition of the basic rights then I can send them gladly the German "Infektionsschutzgesetze"... almost all basic rights were abolished.
You said you saw a dismantling of basic rights at a rate never before seen in history. Can you share some of these hardships with us. I'm sure some of us would be sympathetic if we knew more about the kinds of restrictions that have been imposed on you.

[binneu]

You said you saw a dismantling of basic rights at a rate never before seen in history. Can you share some of these hardships with us. I'm sure some of us would be sympathetic if we knew more about the kinds of restrictions that have been imposed on you.

Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Humans (Infection Protection Act - IfSG)
§ Section 32 Issue of statutory ordinances

The governments shall be authorized, subject to the conditions governing measures under Sections 28, 28a and 29 to 31, also to issue by ordinances corresponding requirements and prohibitions for the control of communicable diseases. Governments may delegate this power to other bodies by ordinance. The fundamental rights of physical integrity (first sentence of Article 2(2) of the Basic Law), freedom of the person (second sentence of Article 2(2) of the Basic Law), freedom of movement (Article 11(1) of the Basic Law), freedom of assembly (Article 8 of the Basic Law), inviolability of the home (Article 13(1) of the Basic Law) and secrecy of correspondence and postal correspondence (Article 10 of the Basic Law) may be restricted in this respect.

https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/ifsg/__32.html

[filghy2]

Binneu also suggests quality of medical care doesn't matter because ventilators often don't save lives (30% of people put on ventilators survive though). Most people put on ventilators do not survive but what about people who are hospitalized and given condensed oxygen without mechanical assistance? Anyone who goes to the hospital with decreased oxygen saturation is given concentrated oxygen. Places that don't have enough hospital beds or who run out of oxygen would probably see higher death rates.

In fact, the places that experienced the highest death rates have generally been the places where intensive care capacity has been overwhelmed by the number of serious cases. This is the point he ignores in trying to pretend that nothing would have changed had the virus been allowed to spread uncontrolled.

[filghy2]

Just to make something clear! Your side of the Corona-believers wants to turn the whole world upside down (constant tests, vaccinations, lockdowns, green-passes...)! You have to prove meticulously that this is necessary and there are no other possibilities, NOT ME!

Neat trick for you. Other people must prove anything you demand, but you never have to explain anything that is inconsistent with your arguments. Not only that, but you get to ignore their explanations when it suits you. For example, you ignored broncofan's explanation about how R0 is estimated - obviously you could easily check it yourself by googling if you wanted to.

You are the one claiming that the Covid crisis is a vast conspiracy by the medical and political establishment, so why should the onus of proof not be on you? It is classic conspiracy theorist thinking to demand that others must disprove the conspiracy.

[rodinuk]

......Oh, so does the state have to? Who says that? I did not ask him for it! Should the state now eliminate any risk in life and protect you from everything that could threaten you?
That is not the task of the state! The state has to make sure that the health care system works, that's what I pay it for with my taxes. That the state nowadays forbids me to leave my apartment at night is just presumptuous...

You did implicitly ask him(the state) to do it because as a citizen you expect as you say that the state will ensure the health system works for all the citizens. However if there is a rapidly transmissible disease that can produce a sudden influx of patients who need intensive care you would have to consider special measures of some sort to prevent the system being overwhelmed and compromised in its ability to deliver health care across the board.

[filghy2]

And what exactly is their conclusion now? There is a German coronavirus and a more dangerous English one?

According to your logic, there was no dangerous virus in Germany until November 2020, then it became deadly for about 6 months, but ceased from May 2021. What is your explanation for this, given you claim that neither control measures nor vaccines are effective?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

[filghy2]

- Germany is a country with a relatively high average age
- Germany is located in the middle of Europe (in contrast to England, for example).
- The measures were almost everywhere in Europe the same (in Germany rather mild)
- Which medical measures were there in 2020 then go Corona? (artificial respiration helps little and is partly counterproductive, medicines there was/are not, otherwise we would need neither lockdowns nor vaccinations)

Why are there only a) and b)?
In your world this may be so, but I can also imagine c), d), etc!

You can imagine other possibilities, but you can't state what they are?

Here is a graph showing Covid death rates for European countries. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
This is not a random pattern. Death rates are clearly correlated geographically, at least between countries that are relatively similar.
- The highest death rates are in Eastern Europe and the Western European countries that were initially worst-affected (eg Italy, Spain, France, UK).
- The lowest death rates are in Scandinavia (with the notable exception of Sweden) and a few other countries on the outskirts of Europe.
- The intermediate group is Germany and similar neighbouring countries (eg Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland).

That suggests that there are probably logical explanations for differing death rates.

Your argument also misses the obvious point that countries with worse outbreaks are also likely to impose more severe restrictions. It doesn't prove that restrictions are ineffective, any more than higher death rates among seriously ill people prove that treatments are ineffective.

[filghy2]

Because my numbers do not fit into your world view, you prefer not to talk about it.
I am still waiting for a conclusive answer (which you probably will not provide).

I have already admitted that I do not know the truth... But you and your Corona believers are obviously in possession of the only truth. And if something doesn't fit this truth (Germany over-mortality) then it is simply ignored away instead of the narrative or the course.

Have you ever studied any statistics at all? If you had you would know that statistic models don't work by explaining a single data point (one country in one year). They work by finding the explanation (or model of the world) that best fits the full range of data. In fact, it is mathematically impossible to fit any model to a single data point. Whether a single data point fits the explanatory model proves absolutely nothing. Your continued insistence that people must explain Germany 2020 and nothing else matters shows that you have no idea.

[binneu]

In fact, the places that experienced the highest death rates have generally been the places where intensive care capacity has been overwhelmed by the number of serious cases. This is the point he ignores in trying to pretend that nothing would have changed had the virus been allowed to spread uncontrolled.

In NYC they talking about 12% at the beginning... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

[binneu]

Neat trick for you. Other people must prove anything you demand, but you never have to explain anything that is inconsistent with your arguments. Not only that, but you get to ignore their explanations when it suits you. For example, you ignored broncofan's explanation about how R0 is estimated - obviously you could easily check it yourself by googling if you wanted to.

You are the one claiming that the Covid crisis is a vast conspiracy by the medical and political establishment, so why should the onus of proof not be on you? It is classic conspiracy theorist thinking to demand that others must disprove the conspiracy.

This is not a trick... your site wants to turn the world upside down. So she has to justify it.... not you personally, but your known representatives.

I have not seen any link from him that would have shown that I misunderstood anything. Never before has an R0 of a disease been determined via PRC mass testing... the values are not comparable (from what I could find).

[binneu]

Have you ever studied any statistics at all? If you had you would know that statistic models don't work by explaining a single data point (one country in one year). They work by finding the explanation (or model of the world) that best fits the full range of data. In fact, it is mathematically impossible to fit any model to a single data point. Whether a single data point fits the explanatory model proves absolutely nothing. Your continued insistence that people must explain Germany 2020 and nothing else matters shows that you have no idea.

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?

[binneu]

You did implicitly ask him(the state) to do it because as a citizen you expect as you say that the state will ensure the health system works for all the citizens. However if there is a rapidly transmissible disease that can produce a sudden influx of patients who need intensive care you would have to consider special measures of some sort to prevent the system being overwhelmed and compromised in its ability to deliver health care across the board.

Then guess how many percent of intensive care beds in Germany were occupied by corona patients in the "pandemic's state of emergency".
And guess how many beds and staff have been increased or decreased since the beginning of the "crisis"?

[binneu]

According to your logic, there was no dangerous virus in Germany until November 2020, then it became deadly for about 6 months, but ceased from May 2021. What is your explanation for this, given you claim that neither control measures nor vaccines are effective?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

In 2020, there is no conspicuity to be seen, and I am not saying that, but rather the data analyst based on the official data of the Federal Statistical Office.

I'm not saying anything... I only say that your (mainstream) story is not conclusive!

[rodinuk]

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?
Covid cases do not equal excess mortality. Other diseases and causes of death exist

[binneu]

Your argument also misses the obvious point that countries with worse outbreaks are also likely to impose more severe restrictions. It doesn't prove that restrictions are ineffective, any more than higher death rates among seriously ill people prove that treatments are ineffective.

Thats the map you wanted maybe?
1339001

You say "probably" yourself...
Do we have any study which measure brings how much?

I never said that in all countries there is nothing conspicuous...
The problem I see, where will this lead to? When will we get back to a halfway normal state?

[rodinuk]

I’m living the same life I did prior to lockdown, I only wear a mask when I am shopping and I probably won’t even need a booster. In England there is no longer a lockdown either so I am free to come and go. That’s more than halfway normal.

[broncofan]

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?
I have data from more than just European countries. Very few had no excess deaths. Slightly more had lots of excess deaths but recorded covid cases that are slightly higher than excess death. I think you’ve conflated these two things which doesn’t speak well of your honesty or thinking ability. Name the countries you think have no excess death.

You also implied that r0 for flu is calculated only from symptomatic cases while for covid is calculated from testing everyone with pcr tests. I will post some links for you later when I’m home but suffice to say this is more dishonesty from you.

[filghy2]

I'm not saying anything... I only say that your (mainstream) story is not conclusive!

That is not true because you have stated previously that you don't believe the virus is dangerous and that the mainstream are deliberately exaggerating it because they have some agenda. You are not just being agnostic.


I never said that in all countries there is nothing conspicuous...
The problem I see, where will this lead to? When will we get back to a halfway normal state?

If there are many countries where there has been a significant effect how could this be consistent with your argument that the virus is not dangerous and that measures have not reduced the danger in other countries? Again we have this dishonest double standard where other people must explain every single case but you never have to explain any inconsistencies with your argument.

The answer to the last question is pretty obvious. We can go back to something more like normal when a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated that the risks of serious illness are manageable. Why do you claim it is some kind of terrible imposition that people might have to get booster shots or sometimes wear masks?

[filghy2]

You say "probably" yourself...
Do we have any study which measure brings how much?

You want me to research European policies for you, even though you live in Europe and I don't? Just in case your search engine is broken, here are three studies I found with a quick search.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201203/What-are-the-most-effective-COVID-policies.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/

I know you are unlikely to ever understand this, but all statistical analysis is based on probability. Nothing is explained with 100% certainty. We can only ever say that the data appear to be consistent with some explanation with a certain probability. It is hard in this case because the behaviour of the virus depends on many factors, especially human behaviour. Any restrictions can only work if people follow the rules. Are you one of those people who refuses to obey the rules and then complains that they aren't working?

[filghy2]

This article discusses the latest US research on the effectiveness of vaccines against the Delta variant. It shows that unvaccinated people are 5 times more likely to be infected than the vaccinated, and over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized or die.
https://www.vox.com/2021/9/11/22668360/cdc-study-unvaccinated-people-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19

It looks like our adversary may have vacated the field, but it's interesting that Germany is lagging behind other European countries in vaccination rates, though not as badly as the US. The level at which vaccination rates slow significantly gives an indication what what percentage of the population may be vaccine-hesitant.

1340064

[rodinuk]

I’m living the same life I did prior to lockdown, I only wear a mask when I am shopping and I probably won’t even need a booster. In England there is no longer a lockdown either so I am free to come and go. That’s more than halfway normal.

Well thanks to the emergence of Omicron I did need a booster!

[chi73inla]

I picked up a couple of girls over the last few weeks and serviced them in my car. I also went to the Frat House. Otherwise, I live in total isolation. I'm double boosted but have a weakened immune system. I ended up the Delta variant and needed an antibody infusion. It is the price you pay when you need uncut Latina cock.

[broncofan]

I picked up a couple of girls over the last few weeks and serviced them in my car. I also went to the Frat House. Otherwise, I live in total isolation. I'm double boosted but have a weakened immune system. I ended up the Delta variant and needed an antibody infusion. It is the price you pay when you need uncut Latina cock.
I'm not judging but am just curious about your situation (if you don't want to share just ignore I won't take it personally). You say you're double boosted. Does that mean four shots total? It is surprising your breakthrough was delta but if as you say you have a weakened immune system maybe you just never had an immune response to the shots.

Did you ever get blood tests for antibodies after your shots? Again, just curious. I have a friend who got an organ transplant which means he's on immunosuppressants for life and he developed antibodies after his third shot but of course everyone's different.

They are still using monoclonal antibodies for delta variant so it's good in your situation you got an infusion. Are you feeling better?

[morim]

Corona Virus is nothing else that the usual flu virus that every year strike human beeings.
Authorities are building something strange on it

[Fitzcarraldo]

Corona Virus is nothing else that the usual flu virus that every year strike human beeings.
Authorities are building something strange on it

Man, your misinformation is 2 years out of date.

[Stavros]

The broad assumption is that Omicron marks a decline in the virulence of the Corona virus and thus a sufficient decline for our countries to ‘return to normal’. Does that mean the commute will end and workers resume their daily routine, or mix going into the office with working from home?

Here in Germany, other than a supermarket, I cannot enter a public building without showing my Covid Pass and ID, which is my passport. My Covid Pass is the evidence of my vaccinations embedded in three QR patches which are on my smartphone via the NHS App, and which assistants read at the door either by plain sight, or using a QR reader. In addition, I have had to have ‘schnelltests’ to enter theatres which either provide the free service or recommend a nearby pharmacy or test centre these being numerous and ubiquitous.

Face masks must often be worn when walking in pedestrianised streets, and in one restaurant we went to my companion was asked to replace her designer-chic cloth facemask for an N95 or Particle Filtering mask marketed here as YX152 or FFP2 NR. I always carry a spare so we were able to have lunch.

As a result I feel safer here than in the UK with its indifference to strict rules and the institutionalised selfishness that causes more problems than it solves. But return I must, without changing my behaviour, risk-averse, and I hope, secure.

I hope all of you will purchase N95 or similar masks, and limit your activities until the worst of this present phase is over.

[blackchubby38]

The broad assumption is that Omicron marks a decline in the virulence of the Corona virus and thus a sufficient decline for our countries to ‘return to normal’. Does that mean the commute will end and workers resume their daily routine, or mix going into the office with working from home?




When the “powers that be” decide that this pandemic is over and things go back to normal (when I say normal, I mean what the world was like in January 2020), I think there must be a sit down between cities, corporations, and their respective workers about remote working. Here in NYC, the new mayor is using the bully pulpit to go after financial institutions for letting their employees return to working remotely during this latest surge. Something municipal and other city employees (myself included but I will get back to that later) have not been able to do.

I understand what he is saying about the impact that empty office buildings have on the economic ecosystem. But I hate to break it to him, the damage has already been done. Many of the places that went out of business because of lockdowns are not coming back and trying to guilt people into help save the remaining ones isn’t fair. Especially since if people are going to have the option to work from home, they are going to do so.

Before I switched jobs and started working at one of the city hospitals, the private one that I worked for allowed us to work from home 3 days a week. This was even before the pandemic. From my understanding, the only reason it was not fulltime was because the higher ups were not in favor of it. I can only imagine how it was in the corporate world pre-2020. In essence, I think if most companies hadn’t been forced into letting their employees work from home fulltime because of the pandemic, its something they wouldn’t had offered in the first place.

When I left the private hospital in January 2021, upper management had extended fulltime working from home until March. Although we had the option of going into the office if we wanted to. I am not sure what it is like now.

As for my current situation, employees are allowed to work from home with the approval of the director of the individual department. I have been working at my present job for a year and I am still waiting to get that option. But for personal reasons, I also have not been in a rush to bring it up yet. I will add that My union is working to get a NYC Teleworking Expansion act passed through the state legislature.

I think going forward, employers should develop a hybrid working from home option. I think asking their employees to come into the office 2-3 days a week is fair. At the same time, it helps sustain areas whose main source of revenue comes from office workers.

[Stavros]

Blackchubby I appreciate your thoughts on this, and I do think the mix of office/home will become standard. I am retired now, but in my last job I would not have liked working from home, as I tend to lose focus there, did not have access to the documents I needed to work on, and prefer the spatial separation, but it might not suit everyone.

The issue of taking work home is I think a separate one as it amounts to people working for free and for that matter using their own resources- gas and electricity for example- the Company is not paying for. This may become an issue with home working in the future as well as issues such as - whose computer is being used? Should there be a separate internet connection for work rather than personal use?

When I first worked in the City of London there were a lot of sandwich bars and cafes but not on the scale that evolved after I left, so I think while some businesses will fold- indeed, have already done so- it will be an adjustment. The biggest threat remains the long term impact of Brexit, indeed, Covid-19 has done Boris Johnson a favour by shielding him from the failures of his policy, though he has suffered for other reasons, being unfit to hold public office, but that is for another thread.

A small question- do you travel outside New York? I had not travelled anywhere since the outbreak until arriving in Germany last month, but did so knowing the Germans have strict rules, that I had the right paperwork. If I were in the US, I would not be going anywhere.

[filghy2]

The broad assumption is that Omicron marks a decline in the virulence of the Corona virus and thus a sufficient decline for our countries to ‘return to normal’. Does that mean the commute will end and workers resume their daily routine, or mix going into the office with working from home?

Things won't really return to normal until the virus becomes endemic, which means there is a reasonably stable rate of infections at a level that the health system can manage comfortably. We clearly are not there yet with omicron, because even though it's apparently less dangerous that may be offset by the sheer numbers of infections.

Even when this happens, some things won't return to the pre-pandemic normal. I'm sure there will be a permanent shift to remote working, now people have realised it can work. They may also be more mask-wearing on public transport etc, as occurred in Asian countries even before the pandemic.

[filghy2]

I understand what he is saying about the impact that empty office buildings have on the economic ecosystem. But I hate to break it to him, the damage has already been done. Many of the places that went out of business because of lockdowns are not coming back and trying to guilt people into help save the remaining ones isn’t fair. Especially since if people are going to have the option to work from home, they are going to do so.

An economic system that requires masses of people to waste lots of their own time commuting is inefficient anyway. I think the only reason it lasted this long is inertia and the fact that the costs are borne by employees rather than employers. If employers had to pay for commuting time the system would have changed well before now.

It's unfortunate that CBD businesses will struggle, but that's what happens whenever the economy changes. It would make no more sense to try to stop this than it would have done to stop economic activity moving from the country to the city after the industrial revolution.