Coronavirus

[broncofan]

Can anyone comment on why California has done so much better in containing the virus? I think I read that they had twice as many returnees from China as New York state, yet deaths in New York are 30 times greater relative to the population.
I think a part of it is that California had its earliest diagnosed case in January and even though they did not take their first statewide action until March 11, the cdc was already looking for community spread in February. We didn't have adequate testing anywhere, but mayors in California were urging caution whereas New York was completely blindsided. Cali also had the benefit of at least one very good mayor early on who was conscientious and took a leadership role in San Francisco which probably wasn't hit as hard because of this. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-san-francisco-london-breed/609808/

Meanwhile, NYC is an incredibly densely populated place, relies on public transportation more than any city in California and by the time they diagnosed a case probably had significant spread. They diagnosed their first case on March 1st but probably had super-spreader events. You can't go anywhere in that city without running into hundreds of people in face to face interactions. The mayor of New York City told people they should be out enjoying themselves on March 2. This wouldn't have been as dangerous if March 1st was really the first day they had a case but it was only their first diagnosed case and you can't manage what isn't measured.

I also think the guidance the cdc and who have provided about how far someone can stand from someone else and be safe gives a false degree of confidence about transmission. Are you safe in a room with a thousand people if you're always three feet from others? Six feet? I've read studies and it's not entirely clear, but in New York, if you're in public you're surrounded by thousands at all times in my experience.

[broncofan]

I've read studies and it's not entirely clear, but in New York, if you're in public you're surrounded by thousands at all times in my experience.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

I don't know enough to have a position on whether it's spread only in large droplets or also occasionally in aerosols or somewhere in between. Even if it is primarily spread through the former, a subway in NYC or frankly any crowded store might test that proposition.

[TheGreatestLiar]

here is the governor of Florida demonstrating the misuse of the N-95 in two ways. shouldn't he have given it to the first responder in the background, who has a surgical mask? I also don't think he fitted it properly. https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1251300355582935046
this is the douche bag who the douche bag in chief entrusted with the public health of his state. Unbelieveable.

[Del06]

All this talk about whether elections should be postponed -- what about vote by mail? This would solve all the social distancing problems. Of course the Trumpers don't want it, not because of supposed voter-fraud, but because more non-Republicans would vote: Trump actually said that. In Oregon, they've had mail-in voting for years, with no significant voter-fraud problem.

[blackchubby38]

I think a part of it is that California had its earliest diagnosed case in January and even though they did not take their first statewide action until March 11, the cdc was already looking for community spread in February. We didn't have adequate testing anywhere, but mayors in California were urging caution whereas New York was completely blindsided. Cali also had the benefit of at least one very good mayor early on who was conscientious and took a leadership role in San Francisco which probably wasn't hit as hard because of this. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-san-francisco-london-breed/609808/

Meanwhile, NYC is an incredibly densely populated place, relies on public transportation more than any city in California and by the time they diagnosed a case probably had significant spread. They diagnosed their first case on March 1st but probably had super-spreader events. You can't go anywhere in that city without running into hundreds of people in face to face interactions. The mayor of New York City told people they should be out enjoying themselves on March 2. This wouldn't have been as dangerous if March 1st was really the first day they had a case but it was only their first diagnosed case and you can't manage what isn't measured.

I also think the guidance the cdc and who have provided about how far someone can stand from someone else and be safe gives a false degree of confidence about transmission. Are you safe in a room with a thousand people if you're always three feet from others? Six feet? I've read studies and it's not entirely clear, but in New York, if you're in public you're surrounded by thousands at all times in my experience.

If I remember correctly, the first patient admitted to the hospital that I work at was on March 9th. Before that, there was a cluster of cases in New Rochelle. For those not familiar, its a city in Westchester County about 30 minutes from Manhattan. They had to quarantine a good portion of a neighborhood. But it wasn't like China did with Wuhan province.

Once more cases started popping in the city, things moved too quickly for the both city and state officials to get ahead of it. It wasn't until March 15th, that Mayor Deblasio decided to close the schools. Governor Cuomo's stay at home orders changed from week to week as he wanted to see how significant spread was going to be until they became what they are now.

Along with the lines about what you're saying in regards to Mayor Deblasio's mindset about the virus on March 2nd, the following is from a letter that was circulated around my apartment building dated on March 3.

Dear Shareholder:

We have been following news reports tracking the development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was originally identified in China and is now diagnosed in other countries. In light of newly released guidance for businesses and employees from the CDC, we want to share with you how we are monitoring the situation. As of today, the U.S. is not currently facing a pandemic spread of the virus, but it seems reasonable that we will see an increase in cases of COVID-19 in the future.

We are closely monitoring information from the CDC, along with the New York State Department of Health and the New York City Department of Health. Our planning and decision-making will be based on information from these and other reliable sources. We are also maintaining contact with the Real Estate Board of New York and Building Owners and Managers Association International to ensure we are up to date on industry-specific preparations and responses.

The rest of the letter just talks about general illness preparation.

So now the question becomes what information did Deblasio have on March 2nd to say people should be out enjoying themselves. Furthermore, what information did Nancy Pelosi have back in late February when she said it was safe for people to come to Chinatown.

[broncofan]

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/

This is an interesting document that is a comprehensive timeline of the U.S.'s Coronavirus response dating back to 2019. I agree that the quality of Mayors and Governors had an impact on regional outbreaks, but our federal government has resources for pandemic preparedness states don't have access to. Of particular interest to me are emails in the Red Dawn email chain that include the Surgeon General, people from Health and Human Services, the CDC, and the NIH discussing frustrations that they were flying blind with respect to testing and that the window was closing with respect to implementation of social distancing. They knew this in late February but none of that urgency was communicated to the public.

A few things that are noteworthy: Dr Fauci was asked on February 29th whether the U.S. should be implementing social distancing measures. He said no but he did mark "community spread" as the time when such measures would be necessary. Several regions already knew they had community spread by that point.

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but there are people whose jobs it is to prepare for such events. The two to three week delay cost tens of thousands of lives, one can tell just based on the timing of when people died. Even when the curve flattens, a large percentage of new infections are carried forward from some who were infected because we didn't shut down. It was a colossal screw-up, most significantly in New York, but throughout the country. The failure to deliver tests is at the center of our errors, but there are also institutional failures that may have resulted from defunding pandemic response and brain drain, as not enough urgency was communicated to the public.

Interesting letter from your management company. Numbers from New York looked pretty good when I checked today. My state just updated their death totals with probable deaths this morning.

Edit: when I say numbers from New York looked pretty good, of course I mean relatively...

Also for those interested, here is the Red Dawn email chain linked separately

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[broncofan]

I'm looking at the progression of emails throughout from Dr. Carter Mecher, senior medical adviser for Veterans Affairs, and he looks really prescient. The email from February 28 calling for action and looking at Italy with foreboding was right on the money.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[Stavros]

A woman demonstrating over the weekend was on the BBC-2 Newsnight programme this evening (21st April) and on film she said that she no longer trusts scientists, but only God. It seems to me that in the unfolding tragedy some people take the view 'if I get sick and die, that is what God wants', 'if my neighbour gets sick and dies, I don't care'.

That the demonstrators aso brandish battlefield weapons underlines what may be the deepest crisis since 1776, because the President has abdicated his job to host a TV show, there is no leadership in the country, and crucially neither this President nor the Republican Party care.

It is as if they have decided to opt out of the Constitutional Republic because it has been 'bought' or 'captured' by non-White Americans, but whereas in 1861 they not only seceded from the US but attacked it, in this case I think the death of the US will take place over several years as individual States decide to simply ignore anything the Federal Govt says.

If the demented baboon gets another four yeas, it is over. He literally could not care what happens, he has his money in offshore accounts, he has an inflated opinion of himself, he has been part of the Murdoch Plan to end American Government and create a libertarian market-based economy with no governent interference, and the 45th, possible the last President far from resisting collapse, seems to both welcome it, and encourage the uneducated mob by tweeting 'Liberate Michigan'. Had the armed men stormed the Governors's office and shot her dead, the President might even pardon them of their crime and give them a medal.

He has said he hates what the USA has become, and then says of the FBI's officers who dedicated 30 years of their lives to their country -"You know what they are, though, they’re scum, they’re human scum," So Americans are now Human Scum, and unless I didn't read it, did anyone in his party object to the language? So those Americans served the US for 30 years during which he expected American tax-payers to service the debts he accrued from his failing businesses -that tells you all you need to know, for what President would stoop so low with this constant barrage of insult and abuse levelled at Americans? A President who doesn't care. To paraphrase de Blasio, it is not a case of telling New York, but the USA -'Drop dead'.

It may not be the end, but the US is now on the brink, and it may be the beginning of the end.

[Fitzcarraldo]

A woman demonstrating over the weekend was on the BBC-2 Newsnight programme this evening (21st April) and on film she said that she no longer trusts scientists, but only God. It seems to me that in the unfolding tragedy some people take the view 'if I get sick and die, that is what God wants', 'if my neighbour gets sick and dies, I don't care'.

That the demonstrators aso brandish battlefield weapons underlines what may be the deepest crisis since 1776, because the President has abdicated his job to host a TV show, there is no leadership in the country, and crucially neither this President nor the Republican Party care.

It is as if they have decided to opt out of the Constitutional Republic because it has been 'bought' or 'captured' by non-White Americans, but whereas in 1861 they not only seceded from the US but attacked it, in this case I think the death of the US will take place over several years as individual States decide to simply ignore anything the Federal Govt says.

If the demented baboon gets another four yeas, it is over. He literally could not care what happens, he has his money in offshore accounts, he has an inflated opinion of himself, he has been part of the Murdoch Plan to end American Government and create a libertarian market-based economy with no governent interference, and the 45th, possible the last President far from resisting collapse, seems to both welcome it, and encourage the uneducated mob by tweeting 'Liberate Michigan'. Had the armed men stormed the Governors's office and shot her dead, the President might even pardon them of their crime and give them a medal.

He has said he hates what the USA has become, and then says of the FBI's officers who dedicated 30 years of their lives to their country -"You know what they are, though, they’re scum, they’re human scum," So Americans are now Human Scum, and unless I didn't read it, did anyone in his party object to the language? So those Americans served the US for 30 years during which he expected American tax-payers to service the debts he accrued from his failing businesses -that tells you all you need to know, for what President would stoop so low with this constant barrage of insult and abuse levelled at Americans? A President who doesn't care. To paraphrase de Blasio, it is not a case of telling New York, but the USA -'Drop dead'.

It may not be the end, but the US is now on the brink, and it may be the beginning of the end.

His approval rating is at 46%. It was exactly the same a year ago. Those who disapprove must vote against him this fall.

[broncofan]

If the demented baboon gets another four yeas, it is over. He literally could not care what happens, he has his money in offshore accounts
He owns a lot of commercial real estate. I haven't looked at his holdings in a while but those properties have large mortgages. Banks aren't going to want to foreclose on owners any more than landlords are going to want to evict their tenants when there is nobody to replace the shuttered businesses. But I imagine he's shuffling money around to pay mortgages.

I hate to attribute all of his stupidity to avarice and conflicts of interest, but it's not a good time to be in commercial real estate given that everything is leveraged in that business. His high end residential and offices are probably fine but what about hotels, entertainment, etc. I'm sure he wants the economy to be back even if it kills people.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

His approval rating is at 46%. It was exactly the same a year ago. Those who disapprove must vote against him this fall.Completely agree. Those who disapprove of Donald Trump must vote him againist him this fall.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

He owns a lot of commercial real estate. I haven't looked at his holdings in a while but those properties have large mortgages. Banks aren't going to want to foreclose on owners any more than landlords are going to want to evict their tenants when there is nobody to replace the shuttered businesses. But I imagine he's shuffling money around to pay mortgages.

I hate to attribute all of his stupidity to avarice and conflicts of interest, but it's not a good time to be in commercial real estate given that everything is leveraged in that business. His high end residential and offices are probably fine but what about hotels, entertainment, etc. I'm sure he wants the economy to be back even if it kills people.Agree Donald Trump wants the economy back up and running, even if kills people because it will give something to brag about to his supporters and cronies.

[filghy2]

His approval rating is at 46%. It was exactly the same a year ago. Those who disapprove must vote against him this fall.

Amazingly, the share of people who approve of Trump's handling of the coronavirus is still only slightly less than those who disapprove, and it's come down only a couple of points over the past month. There's even 17% of Democrats who think he's done a good job. It looks like people are more worried about the economy than the virus, which is what he is hoping to capitalise on. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

Unfortunately, I don't think voting him out is going to be the end of your national nightmare. What are the chances Trump will accept defeat? The complaints about mail-in voting seem to be setting up a pretext.

[Stavros]

Unfortunately, I don't think voting him out is going to be the end of your national nightmare. What are the chances Trump will accept defeat? The complaints about mail-in voting seem to be setting up a pretext.

I admit my previous post was a bit over the top, but your comment sums up part of the fear- the armed bands roaming the streets with battlefield weapons in demonstrations where placards read something like 'the lockdown is tyranny' feed in to the narrative that the 2nd Amendment is there to enable local militias to defend the US against invaders and tyrants, something of an irony when the current President appears to have encouraged them. It is a calculation they must make if the 45th President loses the election, would he support an armed insurrection against the State Goverment? It sounds preposterous but is I think on the agenda of the Patriotic Front, the Proud Boys and some of the more extreme groups. My guess is that a man who values money more than anything other than his ego, would calculate his losses if an armed insurrection devalued the dollar. Who knows?

But for me as an outside looking in, I wonder if two such hostile camps can ever be reconciled, if either side will accept defeat or what will they do if they are defeated? It seems to me that the most profound structural change that has taken place, has been the use of State's Rights to subvert the Constitution, and to elevate State's Rights to the status of 'Independent' Rights. When I was an undergraduate the lecturer we had in US Political History suggested we think of the 50 States as 50 countries, and it seems to me they are (re-)discovering their power.
The Constitution gives every citizen the right to vote, but in many States the letter of the law is a dead letter -States openly admit they are purging voter rolls to advantage one party rather than another. Obstacles that make it hard for citizens to even register are not coincidentally making it harder for Black, Latino and poor voters to register for the assumpiton is made that they tend to vote Democrat, and when they go to vote on election day pollng stations in Black majority areas are closed for 'health and safety' reasons.
The Constitutional right to an Abortion has been exposed to States Rights -the letter of the law is in effect a dead letter where the State defines legal term limits to the extent that an Abortion in practical terms is impossible to obtain.
Crucially, the Supreme Court has declined to rule on these issues on the basis it is up to the States to decide. For this reason, it seems to be that a more aggressive promotion of the State will advatage those who, win or lose the election, have found a way to rule without reference to either the Federal Government or the Constitution. It is secession in all but name, without going as far as to create a separate currency, and without restricting the free movement of people, though I can see a scenario in which people who now want to leave New York and New Jersey for the Dakotas or Wyoming may face a hostile reception.

Now back to the science. What I find so depressing about the demos in the US and the frustrations being voiced here in the UK about the lockdown, is that it is absolutely clear that Covid 19 thrives in crowds- sports events, clubs, public transport-, that it transmits with frightening ease, that it enters the body to lock onto the lungs with extreme speed and causes horrific results, and not just death.
I am no fan of Boris Johnson, but this mid-50s, energetic man is now barely able to walk 10 yards without having to rest from exhaustion, while in some cases there is a fear that having had Covid 19 can have a negative neurological effect that is still being examined -again, a man who has something of a brain must be in danger of not being able to use it again as once he did. If he cannot return to a normal life as some patients have, we may be looking for a new Prime Minister before the end of the year.

It is essential for people to mantain their distance from others, for large gatherings to be discouraged, even banned until it is deemed safe to return to normal, if that is possible.

This link offers some perspective on the development of a vaccine, a bit technical but I think some people will understand it -
https://www.fpm.org.uk/blog/covid-19-vaccine-and-antiviral-drug-development/

[broncofan]

https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-officials-link-7-coronavirus-cases-to-april-7-election-2020-4

Keep in mind that we don't diagnose all of the people who are infected and that Wisconsin doesn't have a really bad outbreak. The people who were there were all probably being cautious given the publicity about the elections at the last minute.

[TheGreatestLiar]

good news and bad news
https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/3&
The bad: LA county has roughly 3% of the US population. If you extrapolate LA county's 200,000 to 400,000 cases nationally, it would equate to 6 to 12 million cases on April 10. If you extrapolate it to the world, you 150 to 300 million cases.
The good: LA county had 617 documented deaths from COVID 19 as of yesterday. So its lethality is overstated just as its prevalence is understated.
Nevertheless, there is nothing in these numbers that supports easing of social distancing, and I will continue to regard people I meet as if they were waving a bloody chainsaw.

[Cereal Escapist]

I'd like to point out something I found out 3 days ago but I can't fathom.

I know a republican family in Texas where one, the grandfather, has died of covid-19 and another is currently hospitalized but not on a vent and that family still insists on facebook every day that trump is handling this pandemic well.

When your own family is afflicted, don't you have to stop and ask yourself if your political ideology is blinding you or is it your individual family member's fault for getting sick?

[filghy2]

I know a republican family in Texas where one, the grandfather, has died of covid-19 and another is currently hospitalized but not on a vent and that family still insists on facebook every day that trump is handling this pandemic well.

When your own family is afflicted, don't you have to stop and ask yourself if your political ideology is blinding you or is it your individual family member's fault for getting sick?

We are definitely in cult territory here. Even if people are not following this closely and are confused by misinformation there are two things that should have penetrated and at least created serious doubts:
(i) the President is passing the buck and refusing to accept responsibility for dealing with a national crisis;
(ii) until a few weeks ago he was dismissing the risks and claiming it was all under control.

[broncofan]

I won't guess when Trump supporters will decide he's done a bad job. If it's someone else's family member who dies, it's not their issue. If it's their own family member, I've seen a few articles already that there are no hard feelings.

But even without increasing test availability and making sure our hospitals are equipped, imagine if he had just provided accurate information to the public. If he had consistently said, "people of all ages can die from this, those with pre-existing conditions are more likely to die and the elderly are more at risk but nobody is exempt. Also, you can spread the illness even if you don't have symptoms. It's twice as transmissible as the flu. Be careful." This would have had a huge impact and yet it's inconceivable that he can even maintain a consistent message because he's so tied to whatever's expedient (and he's got shit for brains).

He hasn't even told his base to stop spreading slander about Dr. Fauci. He hasn't told his base to stop attending these demented rallies where they're potentially spreading the disease. He's trying to scapegoat immigrants pretty late in the game given that wherever anyone has come from their outbreak is less severe than ours. All of the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin studies are coming back with disappointing results as well. We were all hopeful, but he doesn't have the first clue about any of the antivirals being studied or how far along different vaccine candidates are. He hasn't to my knowledge coordinated a national serological survey nor has he helped increase lab capacity which will be necessary to increase testing beyond the threshold it's been at for at least two weeks.

Anyway, hopefully we see some good news pretty soon.

[Laphroaig]

I won't guess when Trump supporters will decide he's done a bad job. If it's someone else's family member who dies, it's not their issue. If it's their own family member, I've seen a few articles already that there are no hard feelings.

But even without increasing test availability and making sure our hospitals are equipped, imagine if he had just provided accurate information to the public. If he had consistently said, "people of all ages can die from this, those with pre-existing conditions are more likely to die and the elderly are more at risk but nobody is exempt. Also, you can spread the illness even if you don't have symptoms. It's twice as transmissible as the flu. Be careful." This would have had a huge impact and yet it's inconceivable that he can even maintain a consistent message because he's so tied to whatever's expedient (and he's got shit for brains).

He hasn't even told his base to stop spreading slander about Dr. Fauci. He hasn't told his base to stop attending these demented rallies where they're potentially spreading the disease. He's trying to scapegoat immigrants pretty late in the game given that wherever anyone has come from their outbreak is less severe than ours. All of the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin studies are coming back with disappointing results as well. We were all hopeful, but he doesn't have the first clue about any of the antivirals being studied or how far along different vaccine candidates are. He hasn't to my knowledge coordinated a national serological survey nor has he helped increase lab capacity which will be necessary to increase testing beyond the threshold it's been at for at least two weeks.

Anyway, hopefully we see some good news pretty soon.

Trumps own words will eventually come back to haunt him...
1245014

[Stavros]

I offer the link to Anthony Costello's twitter feed -he was on Channel 4 News last week arguing that one consequence of the UK Government's Exercise Cygnus, was that they decided not to stockpile ventilators and PPE but save money and opt to use supply chains should a pandemic take place. We can now see that supply chains have been a weak link because so many countries want the same supplies at the same time, and the UK is in the bizarre position of having stocks of PPE that have been sent abroad because they were in that supply chain! Supply chains may become new battleground if as some think can happen, governments decide China cannot be trusted, or relied upon to make things they can make themselves, though I doubt because of the capital cost that major industries are going to return to Europe and North America.

The twitter feed is here and has the cute argument that the countries that have been most successful in containing the worst aspects of Covid 19 all have one thing in common: they are led by women..

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Es erp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[broncofan]

Pretty poignant. I'll let this doctor speak for herself.

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1252674211866464263 (https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1252674211866464263)

[filghy2]

All of the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin studies are coming back with disappointing results as well.

That thing about pushing hydroxychloroquine never happened, bronco. It's not as if they removed anyone from their job for resisting it.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21230982/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-trump-fox-news-hype
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21231763/dr-rick-bright-fired-hhs-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-vaccine-trump

[broncofan]

That thing about pushing hydroxychloroquine never happened, bronco. It's not as if they removed anyone from their job for resisting it.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21230982/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-trump-fox-news-hype
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21231763/dr-rick-bright-fired-hhs-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-vaccine-trump
Thanks. I saw that. No wonder our agencies are getting stripped of talented people when self-censorship is now the most important qualification. I thought this was a good blog post by Bill Gates for anyone who is interested in general information about transmissibility, vaccine development, treatments from antibody treatments to antivirals to the use of convalescent serum, and testing. If you've been following you probably know a lot of this but not all and it's well organized and informative.

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation?WT.mc_id=20200423090000_Pandemic-Innovation_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW

[Laphroaig]

Trumps own words will eventually come back to haunt him...
1245014

The medical genius Trumps latest covid cure.

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1253473235850706948

And the reaction to it...

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/status/1253482576699969537

How long before those killed by Trumps stupidity overtakes the Covid death toll?

[Stavros]

The medical genius Trumps latest covid cure.

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1253473235850706948

And the reaction to it...

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/status/1253482576699969537

How long before those killed by Trumps stupidity overtakes the Covid death toll?

Just when you thought the lowest point had been reached, this...is he going to volunteer to be the first person to drink detergent? Are Murdoch's Morons on Fox News, who touted the first Miracle Cure over 300 times before dropping it, going to show us how wonderful it is to drink or inject detergent, and watch the sales of sun cream collapse as the people head to Florida for their daily dose of some ultra-violet (they have better UV there) ?
Thanks mostly for the second twitter link, Sarah Cooper deserves to be as famous for that skit as Stanley Tucci making a Negroni. She is also gorgeous whch helps get over the insane garbage that is now a daily feature of the worst TV show in American history,

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The medical genius Trumps latest covid cure.

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1253473235850706948

And the reaction to it...

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/status/1253482576699969537

How long before those killed by Trumps stupidity overtakes the Covid death toll?Just the latest example of stupidity from the so-called medical genius Donald Trump,who is an unfit and unqualified clown who doesn't know what the hell he is doing. and doesn't believe in science and will silence and remove anyone who disagrees with his crackpot ideas.

[Stavros]

The revelation in the Government document leaked to the Guardian begs all the right questions, but was the answer a simple case of indifference to the prediction, and a rejection of the money required to prepare for somethiing they did not think would become reality?

"Ministers were warned last year the UK must have a robust plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its potentially catastrophic social and economic consequences in a confidential Cabinet Office briefing leaked to the Guardian.
The detailed document warned that even a mild pandemic could cost tens of thousands of lives, and set out the must-have “capability requirements” to mitigate the risks to the country, as well as the potential damage of not doing so."
Full article here-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-uk-ministers-were-warned-last-year-of-risks-of-coronavirus-pandemic

[filghy2]

The medical genius Trumps latest covid cure.

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1253473235850706948

And the reaction to it...

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/status/1253482576699969537

How long before those killed by Trumps stupidity overtakes the Covid death toll?

And it wasn't a random thought bubble or a sarcastic joke, as Trump is now claiming. This guy really does believe the last person he spoke to, if that person happens to be on his side. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirus

[Stavros]

What was the name of that novel -Death Comes for the Archbishop? I guess this is the bootleg version, Death Comes From the Archbishop...!

[broncofan]

And it wasn't a random thought bubble or a sarcastic joke, as Trump is now claiming. This guy really does believe the last person he spoke to, if that person happens to be on his side. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirus
You can tell just by listening to him that he wasn't sarcastic. But if you hadn't posted this article I would have assumed he just talked to a scientist about sanitizing items and got confused. I didn't know until now someone pitched this to him as a cure. People don't want to believe the person running this country is that stupid. This is a level of stupidity that exceeds anything most people have seen first hand, except that rare person that everyone whispers about "hey that guy is a fucking moron. He said Obama founded ISIS."

It's also worth noting that unless there's some miracle we're not going to have under 60,000 people die in this first wave. We're at 52,000 deaths and not far from peak. What we're finding out and should have known is that it's steep on the ascent and flat on the far side of the peak.

Testing in the U.S. is up to 200,000 a day, which is a 33% increase and in the right direction if it is not just a blip.

[Ripjags]

Instead of bleach - dry clean

[KnightHawk 2.0]

And it wasn't a random thought bubble or a sarcastic joke, as Trump is now claiming. This guy really does believe the last person he spoke to, if that person happens to be on his side. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirusDonald Trump wasn't being sarcastic when he came up with that crackpot idea,just another of him backpedaling after getting caught saying stupid shit on camera,he also the same clueless buffoon who suggested using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes and said that windmills causes cancer.

[TheGreatestLiar]

Maybe this is President Quack's messaging to America that it's time to drink the Koolaid?
Does anyone else notice a resemblence?
1245592

[filghy2]

It's also worth noting that unless there's some miracle we're not going to have under 60,000 people die in this first wave. We're at 52,000 deaths and not far from peak. What we're finding out and should have known is that it's steep on the ascent and flat on the far side of the peak.


That 60,000 deaths prediction was for early August as well, so that's likely to be well exceeded. That's ironic, given that commentators in certain quarters were dismissing the modelling as alarmist after they revised earlier predictions down.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491715-key-coronavirus-model-revised-downward-predicts-60k-deaths-in-us-by-august

[filghy2]

I should add that there are good reasons to think the official death count may be a significant underestimate due to deaths being incorrectly attributed to other causes, especially when people die outside of a hospital.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/us-coronavirus-death-count-cdc-explainer/index.html
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/undercounting-coronavirus-death-count/

[broncofan]

That 60,000 deaths prediction was for early August as well, so that's likely to be well exceeded. That's ironic, given that commentators in certain quarters were dismissing the modelling as alarmist after they revised earlier predictions down.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491715-key-coronavirus-model-revised-downward-predicts-60k-deaths-in-us-by-august
I was looking at the curves for the IHME models and they look symmetrical. It has been pretty accurate on the way up, but then assumes a quick descent for deaths that fall to zero by some time in Mid-May. At that point we will have supposedly gone from mitigation to containment and can open up. Italy and other countries that had very large outbreaks (we're not counting China) have tended to have lots more difficulty bringing infections down than flattening and there are a lot of common sense reasons why.

We don't at this point remove people from their households when they've been diagnosed. In many of the high profile cases I've seen, even attempts to separate family members within a home have been unsuccessful (Chris Cuomo, Idris Elba). Beyond that I'm not sure what we can do at peak here other than distancing. It is good that tests appear to be ramping up again (we had 300,000 yesterday, which hopefully marks a breakthrough). Though it wasn't sufficient to prevent an outbreak, in the long run testing will be important at every stage and one path towards normalization of life.

I posted this before but for those who want to see their countries projections, or their state, here's the website. You can change locations.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Ben]

How the Chinese Authorities and the World Health Organization Handled the Coronavirus:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/24/how-the-chinese-authorities-and-the-world-health-organization-handled-the-coronavirus/

[filghy2]

I was looking at the curves for the IHME models and they look symmetrical. It has been pretty accurate on the way up, but then assumes a quick descent for deaths that fall to zero by some time in Mid-May. At that point we will have supposedly gone from mitigation to containment and can open up. Italy and other countries that had very large outbreaks (we're not counting China) have tended to have lots more difficulty bringing infections down than flattening and there are a lot of common sense reasons why. [/URL]

I agree that those projections look overoptimistic. There's no way that herd immunity will be anywhere near achieved over the next month, so they must assume that the virus can be eradicated. No country has been able to achieve that yet, even those that were much more successful in containing the virus. My understanding is that the projections are essentially driven by assumptions on R0, and if it's less than 1 then cases must decline steadily to zero. That seems to assume a world in which nothing goes wrong and people adhere to the guidelines.

[filghy2]

How the Chinese Authorities and the World Health Organization Handled the Coronavirus:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/24/how-the-chinese-authorities-and-the-world-health-organization-handled-the-coronavirus/

The irony is that if the WHO had declared a pandemic and recommended travel restrictions early on, the same people now trying to make them a scapegoat would have dismissed it as alarmism over something that was no worse than regular flu.

[Stavros]

How the Chinese Authorities and the World Health Organization Handled the Coronavirus:
/ (https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/24/how-the-chinese-authorities-and-the-world-health-organization-handled-the-coronavirus/)

Unusually tame piece from Counterpunch -what about the step-by-step demolition of the USA's commitment to the UN and its Agencies? UNWRA, UNESCO, and now the WHO -this is just part of a long term strategy to end the international order that the US helped to create in the years after the Second World War -the first meeting of the UN General Assembly was in London in January 1946.
Surprised Counerpunch has not noted this, for who benefits from ending the UN? Russia, China...

[broncofan]

My issue with the Counterpunch article is that it doesn't reflect a complex reality. Trump is using China's conduct as an excuse for his own negligence when they're unrelated. That doesn't mean China's behavior was exemplary and the article seems to exclude at least a few things that should concern us about China's response.

China did try to silence whistleblowers and has not only not been transparent but has appeared to try to suppress investigation into the origin of the outbreak. In addition, the numbers they've released for infections and deaths are likely fabrications based on some external indicators such as demand for funeral services. Other countries depend on accurate reporting to try to determine the relationship between government measures to contain the virus' spread and outcomes.

If the outbreak started as a result of the trade in wild animals to be eaten at wet markets, which is the most likely origin, we can say China has been aware of the risks of zoonotic diseases being transmitted to humans in this setting for some time. One can criticize this practice without making any cultural judgments and also without seeking to harm China's food supply since these animals are eaten as a delicacy rather than as a staple of people's diet.

[broncofan]

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/4/27/21236270/bill-gates-coronavirus-covid-19-plan-vaccines-conspiracies-podcast

Here's an interview with Bill Gates. Once again, he seems to provide some of the broadest, most useful information one can find from a single source. This interview covers testing limitations, how to increase testing capacity, therapeutics, likelihood for creating a vaccine and timeline, ability to manufacture and scale up a successful vaccine, distancing measures and their effectiveness, the origin of covid-19, the dangers associating with consuming certain animal meats, and more.

[blackchubby38]

This a is great article about what at this point seems like a year ago:

http://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-day-everything-changed-coronavirus

[Stavros]

My issue with the Counterpunch article is that it doesn't reflect a complex reality. Trump is using China's conduct as an excuse for his own negligence when they're unrelated. That doesn't mean China's behavior was exemplary and the article seems to exclude at least a few things that should concern us about China's response.

China did try to silence whistleblowers and has not only not been transparent but has appeared to try to suppress investigation into the origin of the outbreak. In addition, the numbers they've released for infections and deaths are likely fabrications based on some external indicators such as demand for funeral services. Other countries depend on accurate reporting to try to determine the relationship between government measures to contain the virus' spread and outcomes.

If the outbreak started as a result of the trade in wild animals to be eaten at wet markets, which is the most likely origin, we can say China has been aware of the risks of zoonotic diseases being transmitted to humans in this setting for some time. One can criticize this practice without making any cultural judgments and also without seeking to harm China's food supply since these animals are eaten as a delicacy rather than as a staple of people's diet.

Excellent post, Broncofan, puts a lot of my thoughts together in one place.

[Stavros]

This a is great article about what at this point seems like a year ago:
http://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-day-everything-changed-coronavirus

Fascinating collection of oral history that brings out the doubts and fears that have been so integral to this whole story.

I also recommend these reviews of the multiple times the President was warned that a major event was taking place in the world that had deep implications for the USA-
https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-warnings-46ea8006-2e19-4810-82c1-0f10f4f9aa97.html
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/trump-received-coronavirus-warnings-daily-intelligence-briefings-pdb

[broncofan]

Excellent post, Broncofan, puts a lot of my thoughts together in one place.
I appreciate the compliment. Funding the WHO should be an important objective for anyone with even the slightest humanitarian impulse. The decision to defund it in order to scapegoat them for the tragic incompetence of our leaders is shameful and as you said one more way in which the U.S. is damaging the international order under this administration.

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of job do you think your leaders in the UK are doing with Covid? Like our numbers, your number of infections and deaths per capita do not look great. But that doesn't always tell the entire story because while I do think policy is the most important factor, chance can play some role in these outbreaks based on when you had your first infection, the layout of your cities etc. I also noticed that testing numbers in the UK are not good on a per capita basis. Again, this doesn't tell the entire story because the timing of tests matters, but the very high case fatality rate and low number of tests per capita paint a picture of insufficient testing.

Stay safe!

[KnightHawk 2.0]

I appreciate the compliment. Funding the WHO should be an important objective for anyone with even the slightest humanitarian impulse. The decision to defund it in order to scapegoat them for the tragic incompetence of our leaders is shameful and as you said one more way in which the U.S. is damaging the international order under this administration.

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of job do you think your leaders in the UK are doing with Covid? Like our numbers, your number of infections and deaths per capita do not look great. But that doesn't always tell the entire story because while I do think policy is the most important factor, chance can play some role in these outbreaks based on when you had your first infection, the layout of your cities etc. I also noticed that testing numbers in the UK are not good on a per capita basis. Again, this doesn't tell the entire story because the timing of tests matters, but the very high case fatality rate and low number of tests per capita paint a picture of insufficient testing.

Stay safe!Completely agree that funding the WHO is should be an important objective for anyone with even with the slightest humanitarian impulse. and Donald Trump's decision to defund the WHO and scapegoat them for his incompetence and negligence and failure to take the warnings of a pandemic coming to the United States serious is shameful and irresponsible,even though he's been briefed multiple tiimes and he continues to downplay it by saying the virus is going to go away,even though health experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci says that there will be a second wave of CO-VID 19 in the fall, shows that Donald Trump is uneducated,unfit and unqualified to be president.

[bassman2546]

Completely agree that funding the WHO is should be an important objective for anyone with even with the slightest humanitarian impulse. and Donald Trump's decision to defund the WHO and scapegoat them for his incompetence and negligence and failure to take the warnings of a pandemic coming to the United States serious is shameful and irresponsible,even though he's been briefed multiple tiimes and he continues to downplay it by saying the virus is going to go away,even though health experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci says that there will be a second wave of CO-VID 19 in the fall, shows that Donald Trump is uneducated,unfit and unqualified to be president.

And why wouldn't there be another wave in the fall? With people imprisoned in their own houses, their immune systems will weaken over the months. Release them into the outdoors and they'll be infested with Covid as well as the flu. Do we remember the flu? Apparently, the governments have forgotten how many lives it claims. When all this goes down, expect a lot more deaths to control that world population that Bill Gates preaches. Let us out now in the good weather to keep our antibodies at a peak will keep those deaths from happening. But why would we want to save lives that way when we can pay out of pocket for a vaccine in a year and help make the pharmaceutical companies trillions - yes trillions!

[Fitzcarraldo]

Do we remember the flu? Apparently, the governments have forgotten how many lives it claims.

Oh boy, here we go again.

Do we remember that flu vaccine is widely available? Do we remember that many people already have flu immunity?

How many lives does COVID-19 have to claim before you'll consider it a threat?

[bassman2546]

Oh boy, here we go again.

Do we remember that flu vaccine is widely available? Do we remember that many people already have flu immunity?

How many lives does COVID-19 have to claim before you'll consider it a threat?

I'm not saying it's not a threat, just being handled so poorly it's beyond belief. And did you read the rest of my post? I agree there will be a second wave, worse than the first. If that doesn't spell out 'threat' then I don't know what else to tell you. And yes there's a flu vaccine. Do you know how many people get the vaccine and STILL get the flu? I've never had a flu vaccine and never had the flu. I wouldn't go all-in on vaccines. Mic drop. lol

[broncofan]

I'm not saying it's not a threat, just being handled so poorly it's beyond belief. And did you read the rest of my post? I agree there will be a second wave, worse than the first. If that doesn't spell out 'threat' then I don't know what else to tell you. And yes there's a flu vaccine. Do you know how many people get the vaccine and STILL get the flu? I've never had a flu vaccine and never had the flu. I wouldn't go all-in on vaccines. Mic drop. lol
Wave? There cannot be a second wave until this first deadly period comes to an end. 2000 people died today in the U.S. so far. That's 60,000 in a month with social distancing, which is 720,000 annualized compared to 60,000 in a year for flu at the high end.

Getting the flu vaccine makes people less likely to get the flu and makes it less severe if they do get the flu. Every year scientists at the CDC have to reformulate the flu vaccine because the flu mutates. We don't know how effective the covid vaccine will be or how long people will have immunity, but if it's very effective it can save hundreds of thousands of lives a year and if it's only somewhat effective it can still save hundreds of thousand given the rate at which it spreads and kills people.

Mic drop? The only thing you've shown is dangerous ignorance.

[broncofan]

And why wouldn't there be another wave in the fall? With people imprisoned in their own houses, their immune systems will weaken over the months. Release them into the outdoors and they'll be infested with Covid as well as the flu. Do we remember the flu? Apparently, the governments have forgotten how many lives it claims. When all this goes down, expect a lot more deaths to control that world population that Bill Gates preaches. Let us out now in the good weather to keep our antibodies at a peak will keep those deaths from happening. But why would we want to save lives that way when we can pay out of pocket for a vaccine in a year and help make the pharmaceutical companies trillions - yes trillions!
One reads about the history of witch burnings and of communities being murdered en masse during the bubonic plague and may wonder how human beings can be so juvenile and superstitious and stupid and then you see modern examples of it. Do conspiracy theorists really think people are going to read their uninformed rantings and conclude they're intelligent or possess some secret knowledge? I see a pathetic person who thinks the entire field of immunology is a hoax and that Bill Gates has donated billions of dollars to combat infectious disease because he wants to control people. Who knew?

[Stavros]

And why wouldn't there be another wave in the fall? With people imprisoned in their own houses, their immune systems will weaken over the months. Release them into the outdoors and they'll be infested with Covid as well as the flu. Do we remember the flu? Apparently, the governments have forgotten how many lives it claims. When all this goes down, expect a lot more deaths to control that world population that Bill Gates preaches. Let us out now in the good weather to keep our antibodies at a peak will keep those deaths from happening. But why would we want to save lives that way when we can pay out of pocket for a vaccine in a year and help make the pharmaceutical companies trillions - yes trillions!

On the last point, our reliance on the pharmacy to improve our lives and deal with illnesses means that Pharmaceutical companies will always make a handsom profit, though along with computing science they also pay for and conduct more original R&D than most other industries. Solution to those evasive trillions? Corporation tax!

Your post implies that you think a more flexible, Swedish-style approach will create a 'herd immunity' that will lessen the impact of the 'next wave' when it comes, assuming Covid 19 will become a seasonal-based illness. On the face of it, this is an appealing concept, but in detail it might not be, for two reasons.

One, is that we still do not know enough about Covid 19, and in particuar, whether it has the ability to adapt to threats to its survival in humans by mutating. Current evidence suggests that men are most at risk from Covid 19, but note that in the early stages it was men over the age of 70. When men like 55-year old Boris Johnson were infected the age-range of vulnerable men was lowered. I assume there is a fear that a mutant strain of Covid 19 could affect children so that with these 'unknown unknowns' the scientists are not going to take a risk with by letting people free to become infected, as if that were all that there is to herd immunity.

For the second point is that in most contagious disease, herd immunity is most effective when it is established through immunisation, because the concept that underpins it is that the more people who are immunised with a synthetic vaccine, the greater the chance of survival, thus the spike in cases of Measles in the US alone over the last year or two is derived from the absence of immunisation -just because the majority of American children have herd immunity does not prevent others from dying, because the immunity is given by the immunisation, not by natural exposure, which in the case of measles can be and otherwise is, fatal. We do not know if there is a natural form of herd immunity in humans, just because young people may be infected and not suffer is not the key point, that they may infect older people is -this is considered too great a risk.
In this case and on the basis of what we know so far, herd immunity only makes sense if there is a vaccine to create it.

Here is a good summary of what herd immunity is-
"Herd immunity describes how a population is protected from a disease after vaccination by stopping the germ responsible for the infection being transmitted between people. In this way even people who cannot be vaccinated can be protected. For example, the bacteria meningococcus (http://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/meningococcal-disease) and pneumococcus (http://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/pneumococcal-disease) can cause blood poisoning (septicaemia) and meningitis. In most people the bacteria live harmlessly in the throat and do not causes disease, but sometimes they get into the bloodstream leading to these severe infections. They can live harmlessly in the throat of one person but if they spread to someone who is particularly susceptible (such as a young baby) they can cause severe disease. By being vaccinated an individual is not only protected from being infected themselves but they then also cannot pass this infection onto other people, where it may cause severe disease. However, for herd immunity to work a large proportion of the population need to be vaccinated."
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work

It is a tough call, but I think a phased end to the lockdown will happen as rates of infection decline, and coincide with the trials of the first vaccine though I don't know when this will happen, and I think ending the lockdown in one part of the country rather than another is a major risk.

[Stavros]

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of job do you think your leaders in the UK are doing with Covid? Like our numbers, your number of infections and deaths per capita do not look great. But that doesn't always tell the entire story because while I do think policy is the most important factor, chance can play some role in these outbreaks based on when you had your first infection, the layout of your cities etc. I also noticed that testing numbers in the UK are not good on a per capita basis. Again, this doesn't tell the entire story because the timing of tests matters, but the very high case fatality rate and low number of tests per capita paint a picture of insufficient testing.
Stay safe!

I refer you to previous posts, which referred to Exercise Cygnus in particuar, an exercise in the UK in 2016 in response to a 'flu-like pandemic. The full report has not been published, so we do no know precisely what the recommendations were. There may have been some purchases of PPE and Ventilators, whereas Anthony Costello who may have been told what is in the report, claims the Government position on preparation was to prefer a reliance on the purchase of PPE and Ventilators on existing supply chains rather than a stockpile.
In terms of preparedness this might have been the financially preferable option but if in a pandemic too many States want the same product from limited existing supply chains, the system is going to break down. If you add in that perennial need not to spend money on a hypothesis, then you can understand the ease with which Governments decide to 'wait and see what happens' in the hope it won't happen.
In the US there are contrasting opinions on what happened to the Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit that the Obama administration set up in the NSC in 2015 -see link- and whether this impaired the US response. On one level I think the changes the new admnistation made weakened the Unit, but I think in any case the new President would not have acted differently than he did.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M

That said, I think we have a once in a century event, almost literally as the last pandemic on this scale was the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-20, and the human scale, and the medical impact of Covid 19 has exceeded expectations, though this is not a reason to excuse the lack of preparedness that advanced economies could have had, and which did have, in the cases of South Korea, Taiwan, China and Singapore -though one notes cases are recurring in Singapore.
Also, now the medics have actually had to treat Covid 19 on real patients, it is known that some -I don't if that means 'many'- can be treated without ventilators. This doesn't mean that stockpiling ventilators would not have been necessary, it just means we know more about the infection now because it is now longer hypothetical, and that PPE has become the more urgent item of need, even more so than the emergency treatment units -in the UK 'Nightingale' hospitals- erected in days which have taken in so few patients.

The two areas of critical concern have been the slow response to the viral outbreak, and the extent of the 'lockdown' with as yet no date for its end.
The UK shares with the US a sloppy response to the first notices from China and the WHO, and one assumes that the Governments simply hoped that what happened there would not happen here. Either way, existing instruments existed which could have minimised the first impact -some form of test ought to have been designed similar or exactly the same as that which was used in South Korea, devised from the tests they had created during the SARS incidents earlier this century. Testing and a tracing mechanism would at least have been able to ascertain who was being infected and where they were and had been, so that a geographical profile could have shaped policy, almost certainly leading to an immediate closure of points of entry into the country -as happened in the US on 9/11- and happened in New Zealand- but did not happen in the US or the UK.

As we know now the first cases arrived in the US by air (not clear in the case of the UK) and this would have been crucial in halting all air traffic. In the UK it would have meant an immediate halt to air traffic and the closure of ports and the Channel Tunnel.
That none of these things happened before the end of January, even though the WHO did not declare Covid 19 a pandemic until late in the month suggests the WHO and other Governmens were slow to act -and in the cases of the UK and US just as slow after the declaration, so that whatever scepticism there was in Janaury ought to have been swift action in February. That said, it is a major event for the WHO to declare a pandemic is in progress, and it is not something they can do without being certain, and they did not do so I think until they had proof the virus had left China.

Other than the details, which concern the way data on infections is collected, the lack of data in the early stages of infections and deaths in care/nursing/residential homes, the data on which members of society are or may be most vulnerable, the NHS has had to cope as best is can, and the general view is that they have done well in the clinical treatment of the illness, but the managers do not appear to have done well in supplying their hospitals and staff with PPE; the absence of PPE in care homes is even worse than it is in hospitals.

The more vexing problem lies with the social and economic consequences of self-isolation or 'lockdown' or 'quarantine'. The UK was already, like the US (but at a slower pace) sliding into recession, the first quarter results from major corporations now showing the UK and the rest of the world facing an economic depression as bad or even worse than the slump of the 1930s.
Factor in frustrations over freedom of mobility and the argument that it has been to extensive and too strict, and one can understand the need to set a date for an end to the 'lockdoown' but I think by comparison, the UK and most European states like France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Germany either have more compliant or more patient people than in the US, though I think the majority there do understand the risks too.

It means the public discourse is more measured, and we have a National leadership -I assume the Scotish Government co-ordnates its policy with the Government in London- whereas in the US there does not appear to be any leadership at all, no co-ordination between states, while the official attitude to science and medicine in the UK is, shall we say 'adademic' when in the US the 'academic' advice is often undermined by senseless, worthless and dangerous garbage, escaping without restrait from the mouth of the one man who ought to know when to shut it.

Mistakes on both sides with caution when urgent action was needed.
Outstanding -at times heroic- performance from health care workers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Poor management of ancillary needs in testing and tracing, possibly due to weak leadership, and a lack of a commitment at early stages to the financial needs of an unfolding pandemic whose vicious nature was underestimated in its medical, social and economic impact. Indeed, on all three of those levels we have yet to calculate the true cost of Covid 19 -I don't think it could have been stopped, but the question is -could we have minimized the impact? In the UK I think the answer is yes, but that now becomes a 'what if?' in history, because we failed to take action sooner, and will pay more for it as the next 5-10 years unfold with Covid 19 adding to the UK's Brexit woes.

[sukumvit boy]

Because of the enormous risk in time and money required to develop a bespoke vaccine for every new seasonal or novel virus this "whack a mole" approach needs to be modified. We need a broad spectrum anti viral and the political will and financing to launch a national/international "Manhattan Project" to that end. Here are some excellent recent New Yorker magazine articles on that topic :
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-anthony-fauci-became-americas-doctor
Such a drug ,Remdesivere is now demonstrating dramatic results.
https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19/about-remdesivir

[Stavros]

https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19/about-remdesivir[/URL]

As well as the US efforts, John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford, told Channel 4 News this evening that Oxford's collaboration with AstraZenica could yield a basic vaccine by the end of Sepember/early October, but warned that it takes up to 8 years to develop a vaccine capable of neutralizing an infection as powerful as Covid 19. In the interim it may be possible to create some level of immunity or reduction of threat, pending the development of antibodies- and the assumption that the current trials actually work.
The medical challenge is one that I think we can deal with, because the international expertise and the money is there.

As for the political will -well let's just say that if the politicians in key positions of authority trust the science we are half-way there. Boris Johnson, also on TV this afternoon, sounded both upbeat about the trajectory of cases -downwards- but warned against any early lifting of quarantine measures in case they spike a second wave. Tempering his usual reliance on bombastic rhetoric, his sober presentation of the facts stands in stark contrast to the President of the USA, and the frankly despicable retort from the President of Brazil-
"on Tuesday night Brazil’s president shrugged off the news. “So what?” Jair Bolsonaro told reporters (https://twitter.com/Estadao/status/1255309993630404608?s=20) when asked about the record 474 deaths that day. “I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?” "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/so-what-bolsonaro-shrugs-off-brazil-rising-coronavirus-death-toll

Link here to the Oxford/AstraZenica partnership-
https://pharmafield.co.uk/pharma_news/astrazeneca-and-oxford-university-collaborate-on-covid-19-vaccine/

[broncofan]

Because of the enormous risk in time and money required to develop a bespoke vaccine for every new seasonal or novel virus this "whack a mole" approach needs to be modified. We need a broad spectrum anti viral and the political will and financing to launch a national/international "Manhattan Project" to that end. Here are some excellent recent New Yorker magazine articles on that topic :
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-anthony-fauci-became-americas-doctor
Such a drug ,Remdesivere is now demonstrating dramatic results.
https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19/about-remdesivir
I'm going to read the New Yorker articles in the morning. Thank you. I'm interested in the subject but don't have a science background so I apologize if I get this wrong. In February I read reports that Remdesivir inhibits viral replication in vitro for the coronaviruses SARS, MERS, as well as Sars-cov-2. This is why, despite the fact that it wasn't a successful Ebola treatment, doctors in China were using it experimentally for Covid-19. That experimental use continued in the United States and there have been promising open label studies, but until yesterday there was no evidence from a controlled trial demonstrating efficacy.

Yesterday the results from a controlled trial performed by NIH were released. The endpoint was statistically significant reduction in duration of disease in people with severe Covid. I think the use of Remdesivir resulted in a reduction in the duration of the disease from 15 days to 11 days (which was statistically significant). It also reduced the mortality rate for the treated cohort but the endpoint was days to recovery. This result means it will likely get approval and be the standard treatment for the time being in patients with advanced disease.

Anyhow, most of the virologists I follow say it looks more like a step forward than a game changer. They claim that anti-virals are often most effective early in the course of illness but that Remdesivir is provided by an iv so it is only used in moderate or serious disease.

The other drug I've read about is Favipiravir, which is a flu drug used in Japan. There are ongoing trials for it and clinicians reported some benefits. I understand it's administered in pill form as well, so if it's shown to be effective in trials there is the potential people can take it at the onset of symptoms rather than once hospitalized.

I know there's been at least one negative study for an HIV combo drug called Lopinavir/Ritonavir. I'm not sure if there are more trials ongoing or that dried up all interest.

There has also been some excitement about the use of monoclonal antibodies, with a company called Regeneron preparing to conduct trials this summer. My understanding is that even if this is safe and effective, these drugs tend to be expensive to produce enough of.

Speaking of vaccines, I would not be surprised if Donald Trump endorses the idea of human challenge studies. Most doctors believe Covid-19 is too dangerous and therefore it would be unethical to perform human challenge trials to speed up Phase III testing for a vaccine. There has been some discussion of this subject among academics recently. I can imagine Trump finding this kind of dangerous shortcut attractive.

[Ripjags]

Covid-19 - Just a gentle preview of coming attractions.

[Stavros]

Covid-19 - Just a gentle preview of coming attractions.

Indeed, and while 'threat' is more appropriate outside the comedy store, are we learning how to face the challenges if humans continue to enter pristine wilderness in search of excitement, money -or both?

And for the record, I am not immune from the common cold, as I have in a cabinet the pills and the potions that I can use if I think I have one. If the common cold cannot be defeated by herd immunity, we shall need all the pillls we can get -and afford to buy.

[Stavros]

For those interested in weaknesses in the UK response, this link argues austerity and Brexit have played a role-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/01/uk-global-leader-pandemics-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-britain

[sukumvit boy]

I'm going to read the New Yorker articles in the morning. Thank you. I'm interested in the subject but don't have a science background so I apologize if I get this wrong. In February I read reports that Remdesivir inhibits viral replication in vitro for the coronaviruses SARS, MERS, as well as Sars-cov-2. This is why, despite the fact that it wasn't a successful Ebola treatment, doctors in China were using it experimentally for Covid-19. That experimental use continued in the United States and there have been promising open label studies, but until yesterday there was no evidence from a controlled trial demonstrating efficacy.

Yesterday the results from a controlled trial performed by NIH were released. The endpoint was statistically significant reduction in duration of disease in people with severe Covid. I think the use of Remdesivir resulted in a reduction in the duration of the disease from 15 days to 11 days (which was statistically significant). It also reduced the mortality rate for the treated cohort but the endpoint was days to recovery. This result means it will likely get approval and be the standard treatment for the time being in patients with advanced disease.

Anyhow, most of the virologists I follow say it looks more like a step forward than a game changer. They claim that anti-virals are often most effective early in the course of illness but that Remdesivir is provided by an iv so it is only used in moderate or serious disease.

The other drug I've read about is Favipiravir, which is a flu drug used in Japan. There are ongoing trials for it and clinicians reported some benefits. I understand it's administered in pill form as well, so if it's shown to be effective in trials there is the potential people can take it at the onset of symptoms rather than once hospitalized.

I know there's been at least one negative study for an HIV combo drug called Lopinavir/Ritonavir. I'm not sure if there are more trials ongoing or that dried up all interest.

There has also been some excitement about the use of monoclonal antibodies, with a company called Regeneron preparing to conduct trials this summer. My understanding is that even if this is safe and effective, these drugs tend to be expensive to produce enough of.

Speaking of vaccines, I would not be surprised if Donald Trump endorses the idea of human challenge studies. Most doctors believe Covid-19 is too dangerous and therefore it would be unethical to perform human challenge trials to speed up Phase III testing for a vaccine. There has been some discussion of this subject among academics recently. I can imagine Trump finding this kind of dangerous shortcut attractive.
Great post broncofan, additionally ,you have got all those details correct. The basic difference between anti viral drugs and vaccines is that vaccines are generally taylor made to stimulate the immune system to produce antibodies against a specific virus whereas anti viral drugs are designed to interfere with the mechanisms viruses all use to replicate their DNA and manufacture their protective capsule.
Remdesivere is what is called a Nucleoside analog ,in the case of Remdesivere it replaces Adenosine (the A in the ATCG bases that are the backbone of the genetic code )when the virus is trying to replicate itself and the replication process fails.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nucleoside_analogue

[sukumvit boy]

There seems to be some confusion here regarding the 'common cold' ,flu and corona viruses . The common cold IS usually a Corona virus ,a Rhinovirus or a flu (Influenza) virus. But Covid-19 is a new type or "novel coronavirus".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

[Del06]

Broncofan:"I would not be surprised if Donald Trump endorses the idea of human challenge studies. Most doctors believe Covid-19 is too dangerous and therefore it would be unethical to perform human challenge trials to speed up Phase III testing for a vaccine. There has been some discussion of this subject among academics recently. I can imagine Trump finding this kind of dangerous shortcut attractive."

Perhaps Trump could be persuaded to volunteer.

[Stavros]

There seems to be some confusion here regarding the 'common cold' ,flu and corona viruses . The common cold IS usually a Corona virus ,a Rhinovirus or a flu (Influenza) virus. But Covid-19 is a new type or "novel coronavirus".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

Article in today's Guardian/Observer gives more details on how Covid 19 affects the body and why it is proving to be so difficult to deal with-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/how-is-this-possible-researchers-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism

[filghy2]

Further to previous discussion, this article discusses problems with the IMHE model that has been relied upon by the administration. While it has some advantages in what it can project, the model is not based on standard epidemiological modelling principles and has been very inaccurate - outcomes have generally been outside of the 95% confidence interval for next-day predictions. Other models, which are currently projecting higher death rates, appear to have been more accurate.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic

[sukumvit boy]

Thanks flighty2, very interesting article about the failure of the existing model and the need to broaden the parameters to fit this specific event . This epidemic is a boon to epidemiology and modelers in that it is so unique in scale,response and in so many other ways and will doubtless lead to more effective modeling in the future.

[filghy2]

The IMHE model prediction has been increased from 72,000 to 134,000 deaths by August, primarily due to many states' premature easing of social distancing restrictions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/cdc-daily-deaths-coronavirus-234377

This article contrasts the handling of the crisis in the US and Canada, which has half the number of cases and deaths relative to population.
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242750/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau

[Ben]

What Asian Nations Know About Squashing Covid: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/05/03/what-asian-nations-know-about-squashing-covid

[broncofan]

The IMHE model prediction has been increased from 72,000 to 134,000 deaths by August, primarily due to many states' premature easing of social distancing restrictions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/cdc-daily-deaths-coronavirus-234377

What's interesting is that it predicts about 64,000 more deaths in something close to 90 days. There are day of the week effects so today's death totals don't look as bad, but we've averaged close to 2,000 deaths a day for the last two weeks.

Now if we could expect R0 to decrease, this might be a plausible total but it still seems a bit optimistic. New York has gotten its R0 below 1 (according to Cuomo and the numbers are improving) but many states are probably above 1, and some have rising death tolls as they seek to open up. I hope mortality is kept to a minimum but we can't get results without any leadership here.

Maybe a sensible model would look at Spain and Italy's R0 during the period past the peak and use that to model IF we maintain social distance. What real world example would we have of a country opening up regions that are near peak? Not sure. Even when we've shut things down we haven't been super aggressive about it and people for the most part in my neighborhood aren't wearing masks.

[broncofan]

I probably wasn't clear when I said day of the week effects. People are not more or less likely to die on certain days of the week but the reporting gets glutted and so certain days tend to have fewer reported deaths while others get allocated the backlog.

[broncofan]

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/27/monoclonal-antibodies-for-the-coronavirus

I follow this blog which is written by a scientist who used to work in Pharma. He describes what monoclonal antibodies are and how they're made for those who are interested. Both the Netherlands and Israel have announced that they've developed antibodies that are effective against this virus in vitro. That doesn't mean these treatments will be effective when given to people with the disease or that they will be easy to scale but it is a good first sign.

Here's an article in nature describing the Dutch effort.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y


And since the report in nature is above my level of scientific literacy, here is a news report for other non-scientists.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/israel-netherlands-studies-claim-progress-in-covid-19-antibody-trials<strike>
</strike><strike></strike>

[holzz]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

why the f is belgium so high?

[filghy2]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

why the f is belgium so high?

A big part of the answer may be that they are making an effort to include all deaths suspected as being caused by the virus, not just the ones that have been tested positive.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/22/841005901/why-belgiums-death-rate-is-so-high-it-counts-lots-of-suspected-covid-19-cases

[KnightHawk 2.0]

I'm going to read the New Yorker articles in the morning. Thank you. I'm interested in the subject but don't have a science background so I apologize if I get this wrong. In February I read reports that Remdesivir inhibits viral replication in vitro for the coronaviruses SARS, MERS, as well as Sars-cov-2. This is why, despite the fact that it wasn't a successful Ebola treatment, doctors in China were using it experimentally for Covid-19. That experimental use continued in the United States and there have been promising open label studies, but until yesterday there was no evidence from a controlled trial demonstrating efficacy.

Yesterday the results from a controlled trial performed by NIH were released. The endpoint was statistically significant reduction in duration of disease in people with severe Covid. I think the use of Remdesivir resulted in a reduction in the duration of the disease from 15 days to 11 days (which was statistically significant). It also reduced the mortality rate for the treated cohort but the endpoint was days to recovery. This result means it will likely get approval and be the standard treatment for the time being in patients with advanced disease.

Anyhow, most of the virologists I follow say it looks more like a step forward than a game changer. They claim that anti-virals are often most effective early in the course of illness but that Remdesivir is provided by an iv so it is only used in moderate or serious disease.

The other drug I've read about is Favipiravir, which is a flu drug used in Japan. There are ongoing trials for it and clinicians reported some benefits. I understand it's administered in pill form as well, so if it's shown to be effective in trials there is the potential people can take it at the onset of symptoms rather than once hospitalized.

I know there's been at least one negative study for an HIV combo drug called Lopinavir/Ritonavir. I'm not sure if there are more trials ongoing or that dried up all interest.

There has also been some excitement about the use of monoclonal antibodies, with a company called Regeneron preparing to conduct trials this summer. My understanding is that even if this is safe and effective, these drugs tend to be expensive to produce enough of.

Speaking of vaccines, I would not be surprised if Donald Trump endorses the idea of human challenge studies. Most doctors believe Covid-19 is too dangerous and therefore it would be unethical to perform human challenge trials to speed up Phase III testing for a vaccine. There has been some discussion of this subject among academics recently. I can imagine Trump finding this kind of dangerous shortcut attractive.Completely agree and also wouldn't be surprised if the Clueless Buffoon Donald Trump endorses the idea of human challenge studies, even though most doctors believe CO-VID 19 is too dangerous and would be unethical to perform human challenge trials to speed up phase 3 testing for a vaccine, he also was the same one pushing the anti-malaria drug hydroxchloroquine as a treatment for CO-VID 19,which turned out to have dangerous side effects, and suggested that people should inject themselves with disinfectant and uv lights, and he would find any dangerous shortcut that pops into head attractive in order to get the heat off of him for his failures.

[Stavros]

why the f is belgium so high?

One factor, possibly the most important, is population density, one of the highest in Europe.

[filghy2]

One factor, possibly the most important, is population density, one of the highest in Europe.

The Netherlands has an even higher population density, and the death rate there is 304 per million compared to 720 per million in Belgium. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_and_population_of_European_countries It would be one explanator, but does not appear to the decisive factor.

[Stavros]

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday declared it is time to reopen the country's economy, even if it means more people will fall victim to the coronavirus. "The people of our country are warriors," the president told reporters in the state of Arizona. "Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open."
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/trump-acknowledges-more-will-die-us-economy-reopens-amid-pandemic

"Chuck Raymond, a financial advisor in St Louis, said: "Without a doubt, he is the most pro-life, pro-family, pro-religious freedom president we've ever had."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51239795


Something here does not make sense. Tell me what pro-life means, if it means anything.

[sukumvit boy]

Article in today's Guardian/Observer gives more details on how Covid 19 affects the body and why it is proving to be so difficult to deal with-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/how-is-this-possible-researchers-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism
More on how the Covid-19 virus rampages through the body attacking many different organs and systems.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/356

[KnightHawk 2.0]

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday declared it is time to reopen the country's economy, even if it means more people will fall victim to the coronavirus. "The people of our country are warriors," the president told reporters in the state of Arizona. "Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open."
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/trump-acknowledges-more-will-die-us-economy-reopens-amid-pandemic

"Chuck Raymond, a financial advisor in St Louis, said: "Without a doubt, he is the most pro-life, pro-family, pro-religious freedom president we've ever had."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51239795


Something here does not make sense. Tell me what pro-life means, if it means anything.Another example of the Clueless Buffoon Donald Trump putting the economy ahead of the health and safety of the people of the country he's in charge of running,even if it means more people will fall victim to CO-VID 19, because he cares more about economics than science and facts. he's also the same one who rejected test kits from the WHO and called the pandemic a hoax. And agree something here doesn't make sense.

[steviedresses]

KnightHawk & Stavros...

Don't know where you guys are from... but I am from the good ole USA. The USA has always put the economy ahead of lives, always. By some estimates, 50,000 people die in this country yearly because they don't have health insurance. I think the number is much, much, higher.

People without means DO NOT GO TO THE DOCTOR. They can't. It will bankrupt them. So a 40 year-old with a blood pressure of 150/100 never sees the doc, Kills over at 52 of a massive heart attack. Is he counted as dying because he didn't have health insurance? Probably not. And he could have lived to 80 with cheap generic drugs.

Of course we are opening too soon. Will probably kill an extra 100,000 people. But most of them will be poor without health insurance and showing up at the hospital way too late. So they will die.

But the economy will pick back up... maybe.

[filghy2]

This report says the the Trump administration buried CDC guidelines that were supposed to be issued on safe reopening of the economy. https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4

These charts show why it's clearly premature to be declaring victory.
1247810

[Stavros]

KnightHawk & Stavros...

Don't know where you guys are from... but I am from the good ole USA. The USA has always put the economy ahead of lives, always. By some estimates, 50,000 people die in this country yearly because they don't have health insurance. I think the number is much, much, higher.

People without means DO NOT GO TO THE DOCTOR. They can't. It will bankrupt them. So a 40 year-old with a blood pressure of 150/100 never sees the doc, Kills over at 52 of a massive heart attack. Is he counted as dying because he didn't have health insurance? Probably not. And he could have lived to 80 with cheap generic drugs.

Of course we are opening too soon. Will probably kill an extra 100,000 people. But most of them will be poor without health insurance and showing up at the hospital way too late. So they will die.

But the economy will pick back up... maybe.

Then some cynic will come along and point out that hundreds of thousands die every year from gunshot wounds, car accidents, the 'flu- Obesity, 'lifestyle' choices such as addictions and alcohol can kill even if these can be controlled and dealt with by the person- which of all these could have been avoided? Other than suicide and murder the point might be, which of these fatal incidents was intentional? The extra dimension with Covid 19 is that the source of the illness might lie in man's ambition, to make money from unusual forms of meat, to invade a wilderness in which rare animals -and unknown pathogens- live, where they should probably be left alone. How many pathogens lurk in the forests of Canada that have never felt a foot fall, what tiny winged creatures exist who for the first time in their short lives experience the taste of human blood and want more?

[Laphroaig]

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday declared it is time to reopen the country's economy, even if it means more people will fall victim to the coronavirus. "The people of our country are warriors," the president told reporters in the state of Arizona. "Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open."


https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1258698158395150337

[Stavros]

This report says the the Trump administration buried CDC guidelines that were supposed to be issued on safe reopening of the economy. https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4

These charts show why it's clearly premature to be declaring victory.
1247810

I think we now know that we don't know the full truth of what our politicians were told in January and February, and that in the UK, probably in the US there will be a battle over the truth and the attempt to cover it up when it doesn't look good for those in power. That said, we may be lucky in the UK that we don't have a Modi who is using the 'lockdown' -in so many respects what Modi imposed on Kashmir last year- to extend the Nationalist campaign against India's Muslims. The Chinese had already been engaged in a campaign to change the social structure of Xinjiang, and one dreads to think of what could be happening in places like Egypt or Iraq, or African countries which have a system of some kind but lack the resources to deal with a pandemic of this nature. It would be tragic if the WHO, which plays such an important role in poor countries were to be starved of the funds it needs to combat this pandemic -or is it the case that those who think there are too many people in the world, think this is one way man has of 'thinning out his kind?'

[Stavros]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1258698158395150337

Never liked the original, but the cover version packs a punch!

[KnightHawk 2.0]

This report says the the Trump administration buried CDC guidelines that were supposed to be issued on safe reopening of the economy. https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4

These charts show why it's clearly premature to be declaring victory.
1247810Not surprised at all that the Trump Administration buried the CDC Guidelines that was supposed to be issue on how to reopen the economy safely. This latest move shows how far they're willing to go to bury science and facts that doesn't sound good to them,and pretend that everything is fine even though it isn't.

[Fitzcarraldo]

https://www.gq.com/story/kushner-too-much-testing

Excerpt:

At one of Donald Trump's press conferences this week, he appeared with a banner behind him proclaiming in all caps that "AMERICA LEADS THE WORLD IN TESTING." It was an obvious lie—the U.S. lags far behind other countries that have managed to get their coronavirus outbreaks under control, like Denmark, Germany, and New Zealand.

But despite swaths of the country shutting down for two months, the U.S. is still basically where it was when the pandemic started in terms of testing, and experts say that there's no realistic way to return to normal without doubling or tripling the number of tests administered every day. That's nowhere near as optimistic as White House adviser Jared Kushner was when he told Fox News that the administration's response was "a great success story" and the country will "be back to normal" and "really rocking again" by July.

Kushner, it turns out, is reportedly one of the people directly responsible for the country's extreme delays in rolling out tests when the outbreak started. That's according to the Financial Times, which recently published a deep-dive into the Trump administration's chaotic and denial-plagued coronavirus response. One of Donald Trump's confidants, who's regularly in touch with the president, put the blame squarely on Kushner, saying, "Jared had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it. That advice worked far more powerfully on [Trump] than what the scientists were saying. He thinks they always exaggerate."

[trish]

Mission accomplished

[Fitzcarraldo]

Gotta wonder if he's telling the truth about this:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/politics/donald-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html

[broncofan]

https://www.gq.com/story/kushner-too-much-testing

Excerpt:
I read at least one article that Kushner was responsible for the Swine Flu Obama comparison. The reason it's important is that it's difficult to have a thought that stupid. Kushner appears to have them regularly and has confidence in his terrible instincts as well as a history of ignoring experts. Even when he bought that vanity newspaper he wouldn't take the advice of veteran journalists and fired some of them. He thought it was a good idea to purchase a vanity building on 5th avenue for twice what it's worth and was probably surprised that a fancy building can fail to generate enough income to service debt if you overpay for it by double. The public is now aware of his legendary incompetence, but it's a shame we don't get to hear him grilled on some of his stupid decisions because he's the soft-spoken guy behind the scenes. I'd love to see him do a media tour with really well prepared interviewers. It's an absolute shambles.

[Stavros]

I read at least one article that Kushner was responsible for the Swine Flu Obama comparison. The reason it's important is that it's difficult to have a thought that stupid. Kushner appears to have them regularly and has confidence in his terrible instincts as well as a history of ignoring experts.....

Don't forget his justification for his 'Deal of the Century' for Israel and the Palestinians- “I’ve been studying this now for three years,” Kuchner said. “I’ve read 25 books on it, I’ve spoken to every leader in the region, I’ve spoken to everyone who’s been involved in this.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/discover/jared-kushner-25-books-read-palestine-israel

Wow, 25 books! I think I might have read 250 and more over the years, I have at a glance around 60 on the bookshelf behind me. Maybe he needs to read 25 books on epidemics, pandemics, and hysterics -or 250. But will he learn from them?

Or he could just shut up, and go away.

[Ben]

How the United States Government Failed to Prepare for the Global Pandemic (https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/21/how-the-united-states-government-failed-to-prepare-for-the-global-pandemic/):

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/21/how-the-united-states-government-failed-to-prepare-for-the-global-pandemic/

[holzz]

Trump is an ass. oddly enough this may be enough to lose him the election. not even his followers can say he's done good this time.

[Fitzcarraldo]

not even his followers can say he's done good this time.

Unfortunately, that's not true. They think he's great by definition. They'll blame Obama, the CDC, the WHO, Democrats, and the Deep State.

[holzz]

https://twitter.com/GHS/status/1263942460901863424?s=20

Why does President Jair hate trans so much? he must have dated some ts woman when he was young, and didn't want to get outed. or a ts woman fucked him in his arse and he didn't douche properly and she left the room and he got pissed off ever since.

[Stavros]

Bolsonaro like many privileged Brazilians sneers at the poor living on the margins as losers. They also dump them in another category of criminals, drug addicts, and thieves not only living immoral lives but being responsible for the moral corruption of Brazil, aided and abetted by the 'progressive left' who don't believe in God -that the very same people are the result of Brazil's failures does not count; that many if not most Brazilian transgendered people of all social types are more rather than less likely to be devout Catholics, does not count. As in the US, this is resentment politics, with one savage difference -the murder rate of transgendered people in Brazil is even higher than it is in the USA=

"331 trans and gender diverse people have been killed this year, says a new report.

The majority of the murders catalogued happened in Brazil, totalling 130. However, Mexico had 63, and the United States saw 30.
Only one was counted in the United Kingdom this year. Across Europe, nine trans people were killed, according to the report (https://transrespect.org/en/tmm-update-trans-day-of-remembrance-2019/)."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiewareham/2019/11/18/murdered-hanged-and-lynched-331-trans-people-killed-this-year/#228c4ff52d48

See also
https://www.statista.com/statistics/944650/number-trans-murders-latin-america-country/

[blackchubby38]

http://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/how-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-changing-the-pornography-industry-192203735.html


I would love to get Grooby Steven's, Christian's, or any other content producers take on this.

[Paladin]

Eating vermin, in my opinion has to be curbed worldwide by implementing farming techniques that don't encroach on those ecosystems. Maybe we should also curb birth rates to minimize the effects of food deserts . Less people the more we can keep threats like this from getting a foothold globally.

China tried pop control with their failed one child policy whics was very draconian. The result is 35 MILLION More men than women in there. India's moronic social caste system and "value" of baby boys over baby girls has led to the same result 35 Million more men than women there too.

More on China later. They started this, covered it up and then lied and then the WHO swore to their lie.

[Ben]

Andrew Cuomo is no hero. He's to blame for New York's coronavirus catastrophe:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/20/andrew-cuomo-new-york-coronavirus-catastrophe

[Fitzcarraldo]

China tried pop control with their failed one child policy whics was very draconian. The result is 35 MILLION More men than women in there. India's moronic social caste system and "value" of baby boys over baby girls has led to the same result 35 Million more men than women there too.


But what better way to ensure population control? Reduce the number of child bearers and you reduce the number of children.

[Paladin]

FWIW, the Diamond Princess Cruise ship works as a great case study because it's one place where we know there was 100% exposure to the virus, and apparently 27% of the passengers proved to be completely asymptomatic, which is quite high, but obviously not nearly as high as 50-75%

Quite true. There were 3,711 total on board. 712 were positive. that's a 19% infection rate in very confined spaces. Of the 712 about 50% were asymptomatic. that means half who actually get it would never know. Of the 712, 14 have dies. That's a 1.9% fatality rate. Not too good, but the average on that ship was way over 60 (probably mid 70s, who goes on a cruise ship in the central pacific in Jan?), the HK person on the ship who probably started it was 80.

The infection rate is similar to the Global Princess which was 17% (78 out of 469 tested) but there were far more than 469 on that ship.

There are studies that show the true fatality rate to be less than 0.5%, but it is probably even lower than that. If one takes an 18% infection rate and applies to the US population, so 18% of 330 million leaves some 60 million probable infections. We're looking at some 150,000 deaths here or 0.25% fatality rate.

Most of the folks who were going to get this have gotten it. Some 62% of the recent new cases in NYC were those who "stayed home", according to the governor. This means they already had it and it was slow acting or someone visited them or they were lying.

That's not to trivialize this, because this went all the way around the world thanks to china.

[Paladin]

AVianca airline offered a Bonus for 6 more month, I cannot believe it but lets just wait

Aren't they kaput now? One of the oldest continually operating scheduled carriers, gone.

[Paladin]

Even if he cares only about reelection the smarter strategy would have been to act early and decisively to get on top of it, then ease off gradually after a prudent period once cases fall to low levels. That would give you a good chance that things would be clearly improving by November. But that would be beyond Trump's skill set and psychological makeup. It's clear that he will be itching to open up the economy again as soon as there is a run of improving data.

He did. He cut off travel from china when nobody else did and was called a racist xenophobe for doing so.
Unfortunately because of china's complicity, lying, etc. It had already been spreading around the globe for some three or more months.

[Paladin]

There are an awful lot of cases in hot, humid Florida. The Australian population, in general, is more dispersed than in the US. Big cities like Melbourne and Sydney are fairly dense, but most of the country isn't. Surely that's a factor.

Think! Fl and NY have very close overall population densities, but NY has more than 7x the number of cases.

[Paladin]

I'm in Pittsburgh, PA. We had someone do that at a store and they had to throw away thousands of dollars worth of merchandise. Stuff like that makes you lose faith in humanity. Right now on right wing media they are claiming that coronavirus deaths are being intentionally inflated.

They give an example of someone who has a heart condition who then has a heart attack during the late stages of Covid-19. The attribution to covid-19 is correct imo because someone with an underlying condition might only have a fatal exacerbation of that condition when dealing with a serious virus. If anything there's a lot of evidence deaths have been under-counted in New York because the number of people dying per day at home has been much higher since the outbreak.

BTW, I have a sibling in Miami. Desantis waited too long to shut things down, and I think there's a religious gathering exemption, but your numbers don't look much worse if at all than ours in PA.

FL has almost twice the population density of PA but PA has 1.5x then number of cases. 3x overall factor.

[Paladin]

Truth is most people were downplaying the problem because Chinese communist party wasn’t being truthful. The Chinese who did try to sound warning alarms were muzzled or were disappeared.

Chine flat out lied and the witless WHO backed up their lie.

[Paladin]

Now here is part 2:

Who told you I am a Trump Supporter? I just wrote two days ago that I sit in the Middle. I actually voted for Hillary in 2016. I also supported her in 2008. I am glad I was wrong in both instances because I can only imagine her handling of China and the Travel ban imposed on February 6th. And also as Obama turned up to be a good president with few shortcomings nonetheless. You can even read my posts from 2012 where I used to debate Republicans here and defend Obama because I felt most the criticism labeled against him was in essence, in its deep core racial. But let's be honest, the US is doing just fine. People are going to die from this. Anyone who believes Chinese death figures, well they are not very smart.

The fact is: China Lied and People Died. I put this squarely on China who decided to send 5 MILLION AMBASSADORS OF DEATH around the world. Trump did the unthinkable and shut down all travel from China. He was attacked by the NYTimes, CNN, MSNBC and every major media outlet out there. I will post clips in a later post to remind everyone. Sleepy Joe Biden called his actions Xenophobic. Now the media, like China is trying to rewrite History. At least watch some of the videos I posted. Only one or two are from SkyNews Australia. And all videos are backed by evidence. Now the Travel Ban could not have been imposed had Trump not won the Supreme Court Case in his Travel ban on Syria, Yemen, Lybia, Iran, Somalia and Sudan. It made it easy to implement new travel bans. Maybe a blessing in disguise.

Now the only problem, we should have shut down travel from Europe too. But because of Chinese lies, no one knew the extent of the danger until Italy (a democratic and open country) started reporting the correct figures. China acted like the virus can be controlled. But Italy told us the truth and then the World woke up. By then, it was too late.

Didn't the WHO and China kept saying there is no human to human contagion way until the end of January?!!!! And even when we closed Chinese fights to the US, WHO criticized the decision!!! How do you answer to that? And please don't mention FoxNews again, because (1) I don't work for them, and (2) I couldn't care less about them.

This needs to be brought to the forefront.

Was back, as far back as OCTOBER, China was already blocking off roads outside of that town. They completely sealed off Wuhan from all ground travel out AND halted ALL DOMESTIC air travel out of Wuhan to other parts of china.

But they continued to allow INTERNATIONAL air travel out, at least until Pres Trump stopped it here to the US, but by that time tens or hundreds of thousands had traveled from Wuhan to the US and even more to other countries. There were three flights per week to NYC from Wuhan. More to several other major USA cities and even more to other countries like Italy which is a popular chinese tourist destination right at that time, Iran who sells A LOT of oil to china (those poor fools made it even worse for themselves), and other European destinations.

Do some math.

That was the seed for global spread.

And as african2 notes the witless WHO LIED when they said there is no human to human contagion way until the end of January"

China deliberately allowed this to spread to the rest of the world while they took severe active steps to prevent it from spreading within their own country. And they actively tried to corner the global market for PPE at the same time.

That's the bottom line.

[Paladin]

Can anyone comment on why California has done so much better in containing the virus? I think I read that they had twice as many returnees from China as New York state, yet deaths in New York are 30 times greater relative to the population.

New York City is unique in the US, really in the world. It is one of the most densely populated places in the world, with only Tokyo possibly surpassing it. The greater NY metro area is also unique in that a very large percentage of the population uses public transportation or similar means of getting around within the area and to / from work in the outer areas. I lived some 65 miles north of the city and took trains in every day and I wasn't on the last stop. You take a 70 mile radius circle centered on NYC and you will snag well over 10 Million people. That's like the entire state of Ohio, all exposed to the dense NYC and public transportation.

And this put NYC right smack in the cross-hairs of the virus bullseye.

[Stavros]

He did. He cut off travel from china when nobody else did and was called a racist xenophobe for doing so.
Unfortunately because of china's complicity, lying, etc. It had already been spreading around the globe for some three or more months.

"Travel data of passengers arriving in the United States from China (https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/china) during the critical period in December, January and February, when the disease took hold in that country, shows a stunning 759,493 people entered the U.S.
"This is an astonishing number in a short period of time, illustrating how globalized our world has become. Just as people can hop continents with amazing ease, the infections they carry can too," said Dr. Vinayak Kumar, an internal medicine resident at the Mayo Clinic and a contributor to the ABC News Medical Unit."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

"Nearly 40,000 Americans and authorized travelers have come into the U.S. from China since President Trump imposed travel restrictions more than two months ago, the New York Times reports."
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-trump-china-travel-ban-45a2da12-8063-4ad9-ba28-61cdeb1ce0b3.html

a) Your President failed to impose a natiowide halt to traffic in and out of the US in January, as GW Bush did on 9/11, Reason? He is a coward and doesn't care about the lives of Americans, whom he has dismissed as 'Human Scum'. His attitude was broadcast for all to hear on the 13th January: "I take no responsibility at all".

b) The Lab in Wuhan does research coronoviruses on Bats (so do labs in other countries), but research has shown the strain of Covid 19 is not related to the strains being tested in Wuhan-
"Wuhan lab had three live bat coronaviruses: Chinese state media. The Chinese virology institute in Wuhan, the city where Covid-19 first emerged, has three live strains of bat coronavirus on-site, but none match the new contagion wreaking chaos across the world, its director has said, AFP reports. The director of the Wuhan Institute of Virology told state broadcaster CGTN (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-23/Exclusive-with-head-of-Wuhan-Institute-of-Virology-Let-science-speak-QJeOjOZt4Y/index.html) that claims made by US President Donald Trump and others the virus could have leaked from the facility were “pure fabrication”."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/24/coronavirus-live-news-6m-australians-download-tracing-app-as-experts-fear-second-wave-in-us-summer (at 05.45am)

-Problem is that when your President makes lying a constant fixture of his public statements, it is hard to know when he is telling the truth and when he is lying. He has embarked on an anti-China campaign to cover up the details of his own incompetence. In the US it is his virus, he owns it, and has only proven so far that he is an incompetent manager of public administration, with the net closing in on 100,000 fatalities while 1,621,669 infections in the US were recorded by 22nd May 2020.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1043366/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-cases-worldwide-by-country/


Focus your concern on the US, because right now that is where your problem is.

[Paladin]

^^

In Jan, China and WHO stated "no indication of human to human transmission" which was a complete false statement. Any travel restriction back then would have NOT been supported. Anywhere. Even Pres Trump's restriction was met with cries of racism and xenophobia.

It was only Later that other countries realized the true nature of this virus and by then it had already spread around the world. and THEN, WHO says, human to human transmission is possible.

That's the way it is. It started in China who lied and covered up for months while quietly allowing infected chinese to fly all over the world. There is no way we or anyone else could have prevented this. Only china could have and they chose not to do so.

I do not trust anything coming out of the chicom govt. They have and will lie about this until the end of days because to admit the truth would cause a massive loss of face and completely open them up to world sanctions or worse.

There are no bat caves in Wuhan. The chinese "batman" got his test subjects from a desolate area some 400 miles away from the city. It didn't materialize out something already in Wuhan, it was brought in and got out - somehow.

If you went to believe the lies coming from china and the false press elsewhere, that's your right. I have not and will not.

[Stavros]

You mght want to re-visit the timeline, and accept that in December the Chinese were trying to understand what this novel viral illness was, and that over the course of the month it became clear that it was a new strain of the Corona virus. That they were able to create a genome sequence of the virus by early January but it was not precisely clear that human-to-human transmission was a fact, is part of the uncomfortable fact that a virus of this kind does not present itself fully formed but its morphology only becomes clearer over time- and yet, because of their prior experience with SARS, the Chinese, Taiwanese and South Korean governments took immediate action of the kind that could have been taken in the US (and the UK where I live). We have discussed this in previous posts.
It is just as tragic for China that thousands have died and hundreds of thousands have been infected with who knows what long term effects? Yes, the Communist Party has a lot to answer for, but each government in the world has powers to use when things go wrong, and it may be that the Party in China has lost a degree of respect from the people which may yet emerge in ways the Party is scared of, indeed, this may be one reason why it wants to introduce a new law in Hong Kong, to demonstrate to all that they are not going to give up power, and that liberal reforms are not on the agenda.

The more important issue, outside domestic policy in the US, UK and elsewhere, is how we manage our relationship with the environment, and leave wild animals alone, rather than bring them to the table. We need a concerted international effort to change the diets of some people, and that is no easy thing to do. And create as much as can be done, a more hygienic food environment in our markets and stores.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Think! Fl and NY have very close overall population densities, but NY has more than 7x the number of cases.


Bullshit. Nowhere in Florida is as densely populated as New York City.

[Paladin]

Bullshit. Nowhere in Florida is as densely populated as New York City.

Did I state FL and NY CITY were close in pop density???

NO I stated that NY (state) and FL are close in pop density.

Having lived in NY and NYC, I always make a very clear distinction between the city and state. If i didn't write NYC or New York City, then I am referring to the state of New York.

Is that clear enough for you?

And the City of Miami Beach (not the city of Miami) is about as dense as NYC.

[Paladin]

You mght want to re-visit the timeline, and accept that in December the Chinese were ...

I'm not accepting Anything coming from the chicoms as fact. They lied about this from before the beginning.

It's a plain fact that they allowed international travel Out fro Wuhan to the rest of the world but blocked ALL travel from Wuhan to any other part of china. That ALONE speak volumes as to their intentions.

As to your prior comments regarding brandishing "battlefield weapons", those were not battlefield weapons, you should take the time to learn the difference. Further, citizens in this country have a constitutional right to Keep and Bear arms.

[Stavros]

So what purpose does an Ak-47 serve, on the streets of Lansing, Michigan? To repel an invasion of the People's Liberation Army -the Chinese one, not the Proud Boys or the Patriotic Front [sic]- ?

An armed militia in 1791 means something different in 2020 -in 1791 the US was still under threat of invasion by the British (who did return in 1812). Now the US has law enforcement, a 'National Guard', and a standing army, air force, navy and intelligence services -for citizens to parade in the streets with battlefield weapons is a flagant insult to the rule of law and a violation of the Constitution. Terrorism is illegal in the USA, and it is time for the Government to confiscate weapons of mass destruction.

You need bread to live, not a gun.

[Paladin]

They are NOT AK-47s and are not what you refer to as "battlefield weapons".

[Fitzcarraldo]

Did I state FL and NY CITY were close in pop density???

NO I stated that NY (state) and FL are close in pop density.

Having lived in NY and NYC, I always make a very clear distinction between the city and state. If i didn't write NYC or New York City, then I am referring to the state of New York.

Is that clear enough for you?

And the City of Miami Beach (not the city of Miami) is about as dense as NYC.

Yes, it's clear that you're cherry-picking statistics, downvoting everyone else's posts, and trolling hard.

[Paladin]

Yes, it's clear that you're cherry-picking statistics, downvoting everyone else's posts, and trolling hard.

Been here a lot longer than you.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Been here a lot longer than you.

So? That has nothing to do with the topic. And if you want to play stupid games, I have more posts than you.

[Paladin]

So? That has nothing to do with the topic. And if you want to play stupid games, I have more posts than you.

That only means you've been wasting more time than I have.

[Paladin]

If anyone can disprove anything I have posted with hard verifiable facts - not innuendo, supposition, opinion, or any lies from the chicoms or who, then I will post a retraction for that item. Otherwise, the facts are the facts.

[Stavros]

If anyone can disprove anything I have posted with hard verifiable facts - not innuendo, supposition, opinion, or any lies from the chicoms or who, then I will post a retraction for that item. Otherwise, the facts are the facts.

1) It is difficult to prove you are wrong when you provide no objective proof of your own claims.
Nevertheless, here are some challenges to your claims-

2) In a previous post you claimed "as far back as OCTOBER, China was already blocking off roads outside of that town. They completely sealed off Wuhan from all ground travel out AND halted ALL DOMESTIC air travel out of Wuhan to other parts of china. "
-You provide no evidence for this claim, and you do not mention that the World Military Games was held in Wuhan from the 18th to the 27th of October and that traffic may have been restricted owing to his event, and in other areas something as simple as road maintenance.
A claim made by Senator Tom Cotton that mobile phone access to the P4 Lab in Wuhan was shut down in October has also been shown to be a claim without solid proof, thus:
"U.S. intelligence agencies received reports based on publicly available cellphone and satellite data suggesting there was a shutdown at the lab, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter say. But after examining overhead imagery and their own data, the spy agencies were unable to confirm any shutdown, and deemed the reports "inconclusive."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716
-So, there is no verifiable proof roads were being blocked around Wuhan, no proof that if they were it was because of a viral outbreak, not even much proof traffic was restricted because of the Military Games, and the 'proof' that cell/mobile phone access was shut down in the P4 labs remains conjecture without verifiable proof.

3) You claim in post#361 that "In Jan, China and WHO stated "no indication of human to human transmission" which was a complete false statement." In fact, China declared that human-to-human transmission had occurred on the 20th of January.
That said, it was not beyond proof that this was the case- take the infection of a woman whose husband may have been the first to die, but who might not have been the source of her infection but meat she handled, as is also the case with those in Shenzhen who fell victim on the 10th of January.
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet

4) Your claim is that the Chinese Government deliberately withheld information from the WHO, and to some extent this may be true, but may also 'merely' reflect the fact that China operates a large and complicated bureaucracy, and that junior officials in Wuhan may have been reluctant to inform their superiors of a potentially catastrophic viral outbreak even though in December it is likely they did not actually know what it was that was causing people to fall ill frm flu like and pneumonia like symptoms. If Chernobyl is the model, then again, the reluctance of local party officials to admit they had screwed up was a factor in the delayed response. Thus, what you claim is a deliberate cover-up may in fact just be a cock-up.

5) Your claim about the restriction of travel movements in China does not factor in the most obvious for late January- the Chinese New Year, when millions of Chinese are on the move. Thus, restricting movement out of and into Wuhan spared most of China from infection. Now consider what the US administraton would have or might have said had thousands of American citizens been detained in China and not allowed to return to the US, given that in January the President was dismissing the viral outbreak in China as 'just the flu' that was shortly going to disappear.
You seem to want the returning Americans to China to be part of a deliberate plan, when China was more likely solving a dispute with the US before it happened. As for the US, had it taken this viral outbreak as seriously as Taiwan and South Korea, it mght have tested travellers flying in from China, or insisted they be quarantined for 14 days, or even banned from entry -none of this happened because the US did not take the threat seriously.

6) What we do know now which we did not know in January, February and March, is that there is a strong possibility that the first cases of Covid 19 were in the Wuhan area, that there might have been individual cases as early as November, or for that matter in rural China cases going back years, if the transmission from animals to humans is the cause, rather than a lab experiment leaking into the civilian population.
The Lancet article cited in the Vox link above does appear to show more cases than was first reported, that many cases had no connection to the wet food market in Wuhan, that throughout December as the Chinese began to more closely monitor these cases and by early January describe the genome sequence of the virus, new information added to existing information, but that even by early March when the WHO declared Covid 19 to mark a pandemic, a lot of facts about the virus in both its genetic and social terms was not known.
-But we do know the President was not bothered; he said on the 13th of January 'I take no responsibility at all', and decided not to take control of the US agenda, not to offer any form of national leadership or develop a nationally co-ordinated policy, and decided not to spend any money on the emerging threat, and continued to ignore its implications throughout February as thousands and thousands of Americans returned to the US from China and infected countries in Europe, embedding the disease in the US when prompt action might have limited the spread of it and saved lives.

China is not exonerated from this, it is a vast country of more than 1.3 billion people with in many areas standards of hygiene in public places that do no meet 'our standards,' and in any case the threat of a global viral pandemic has been factored in to disaster management scenarious for years, and not just emanating from China.

The WHO is also at fault for not being more acutely aware of the problem with regard to human to human transmission-thus, when Tedros Ghebreyesus said on the 3rd of February "There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take,” -he was playing into the hands of those countries lke the USA and the UK which denied the importance of Covid 19 and critically sought an excuse to do nothing.

That said, while the WHO declared Covid 19 a pandemic on the 11th of March that probably should have been made at least by the end of January, the WHO like China is a large bureaucracy and it is a big deal to declare that a pandemic is in progress. It may be the case that the WHO was less than honest with the WHO on the cases it had in January, but none of this prevented states from acting on their own as was the case with Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. It is not as if any member of the WHO cannot act without the WHO's say so, in fact the WHO cannot operate in any member country without its permission.

Thus I see incompetence everywhere, people who should have been doing their jobs scared that in doing so they might lose the job, governments reluctant to spend money who now are lumbered with astronomic costs -one at least hopes we have all learned something, because a lot of smart thinking believes viral epidemics and pandemics are going to be more common in the future.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/

[filghy2]

In Jan, China and WHO stated "no indication of human to human transmission" which was a complete false statement. Any travel restriction back then would have NOT been supported. Anywhere. Even Pres Trump's restriction was met with cries of racism and xenophobia.

It was only Later that other countries realized the true nature of this virus and by then it had already spread around the world. and THEN, WHO says, human to human transmission is possible.

That's the way it is. It started in China who lied and covered up for months while quietly allowing infected chinese to fly all over the world. There is no way we or anyone else could have prevented this. Only china could have and they chose not to do so.

Taiwan banned travel from China on 26 January, which was before the US. In any case, Trump did nothing else for the next 6 weeks apart from claiming the virus was under control and would magically disappear. Obviously banning Chinese travellers was not sufficient, especially as 40,000 US residents still returned home from China after 1 February.

Consider this. The US now has 300 Covid-19 deaths per million population. Your neighbour Canada has 170 deaths per million. In Australia there have been only 4 deaths per million, even though we probably have just as much travel from China relative to our population. Doesn't that suggest that your country's death rate is substantially due to your own mishandling of this pandemic?

I see you are following Steve Bannon's dictum about flooding the zone with shit. It's odd that you suddenly start responding to so many old comments after many weeks, though I would not be surprised if you disappear again after this flurry.

[Fitzcarraldo]

https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php

[Paladin]

I had been away from the boards for a while, busy with real world work. I was just catching up.

I said hard facts. Conjecture / inconclusive challenges are not proof that what I posted is in error.

The greater NYC metro area has over 20 million people, that is 80% of the Entire population of Australia, and it is Very densely packed. Australia's incoming flights from china go to perhaps 2 or 3 locations. The US has dozens of destination and flow from Europe which has flow from china as well. It got all over the place really fast, way before the rest of the world knew what was going on, again thanks to the chicoms lying and covering up.

The who is and has been in china's pocket for a while. They will support any lie the chicoms make.

If you like the chicoms so much, why don't you go live there? Let us know how that works out with you being in this board, etc.

[Paladin]

The chicoms are currently effectively using 3 of the 4 DIME elements against the US and the rest of the world. I'm not looking forward to the day they try to use the 4th.

[Stavros]

[QUOTE=Paladin;1930328]

In days of Yore, a Paladin could be relied on to be virtuous, but there is no virtue in prejudice void of facts. Tedious though it is, again:

I said hard facts. Conjecture / inconclusive challenges are not proof that what I posted is in error.
-You claim in post#361 that "In Jan, China and WHO stated "no indication of human to human transmission"- this is a false statement. In fact, China declared that human-to-human transmission had occurred on the 20th of January.
You made claims with no proof, and on this one claim the fact shows you were wrong.

[Stavros]

The chicoms are currently effectively using 3 of the 4 DIME elements against the US and the rest of the world. I'm not looking forward to the day they try to use the 4th.

A curious comparison, thus=

"By necessity and doctrine, the pro-jection of “soft power” is becoming increasingly important to the U.S. Department of Defense. The elements of soft power are often abstracted as Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) actions and their Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure (PMESII) effects. DIME/PMESII spans the range of operations other than combat, including humanitarian aid, disaster relief, and non-combatant evacuation operations."
https://www.nrl.navy.mil/content_images/09_Simulation_Hillson.pdf

In three years since the inauguration of the 45th President, why has neither he nor any of his team used DiME to improve the influence of the USA in the WHO?

Indeed, why has DiME been so absent in the strategic aims of the USA, which has not only chose to absent itself from any soft power/diplomatic/global leadership role in the campaign against Covid 19, but has surrendered the strategic advantage of the USA with regard to nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation by withdrawing from the INF Treaty, surrendered strategic advantage to the Russian Federation by withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty, and has demonstrably failed in its use of economic power to restrain nuclear developments in Iran, and failed to use its economic power to redress grievances on trade wth China -a failure that is costing the US taxpayer $12 billion a year in subsidies to farmers who have lost their contracts with China. And in Diplomatic terms the failure of DiME has made the USA look foolish by withdrawing from the Paris Climate Change Agreement when its own States (eg, California) continue to adhere to it.

Compensating the abject failure of DiME by attacking China is intended to divert attention away from the USA's own failings, while suggesting on available evidence, that China's own use of DiME is more effective because they believe in it, where the current President does not believe in anything other than his own magnificence, and the money he can make playing golf when he should be doing his job.

So get DiME on the table in the open and admit it, if China appears to be stronger (though it is not), it is because the USA under its incompetent President, has let it be so.

[Paladin]

[QUOTE=Paladin;1930328]

In days of Yore, a Paladin could be relied on to be virtuous, but there is no virtue in prejudice void of facts. Tedious though it is, again:

Where have I written something that is considered prejudice? Thought so


[QUOTE=Paladin;1930328]
-You claim in post#361 that "In Jan, China and WHO stated "no indication of human to human transmission"- this is a false statement. In fact, China declared that human-to-human transmission had occurred on the 20th of January.
You made claims with no proof, and on this one claim the fact shows you were wrong.

Earlier in the month they certainly did say there was no indication...

[Paladin]

^^^ Your unfounded opinion. Get your head out of the sand. We have been using the DIME (capital "I") elements, D & E against Russia, E against Iran, E against China. It wakes a while to undo 30 or more years of indecision by prior admins. Being in the field, I can't comment in"I" or "M".

[Stavros]

Earlier in the month they certainly did say there was no indication...

But that is not what you said. January is a month with 31 days.

[Stavros]

^^^ Your unfounded opinion. Get your head out of the sand. We have been using the DIME (capital "I") elements, D & E against Russia, E against Iran, E against China. It wakes a while to undo 30 or more years of indecision by prior admins. Being in the field, I can't comment in"I" or "M".

How has the US used DIME against Russia? By expelling some Russian diplomats and imposing selective sanctions on the country and its citizens? Is that it?
Has Russia reversed its annexation of the Crimea? No. Has it withdrawn its troops and puppet 'governments' from the bogus Republics created from the invasion of the Ukraine? No. Has DIME srengthened the reform movement in Iran or the Ayatollahs in the Guardian Council? The Ayatollahs. Has trade between China and the US been subject to rational argument and reform? Or has it just been one confrontation after another, at a cost of billions of $$$ to the US?

So far, DIME has been notable by its absence, while the USA now stumbles from one crisis to another, splashing the cash with no concern for the day when the bills must be paid. What has Putin's objective been? To do what can be done to make the USA divided at home, and weak abroad. All that money and influence that flowed from Russia with Love in 2016 has been repaid, and as long as Putin's Apprentice keeps delivering for Russia, Putin won't point the finger to his boy and say in sombre tones, 'You're Fired!'.

[Paladin]

But that is not what you said. January is a month with 31 days.

Well, yeah they changed their tune when it all blew up in their face, but earlier Jan the did say what I stated. They initially maintained there eas NO indication...

[Paladin]

How has the US used DIME against Russia? By expelling some Russian diplomats and imposing selective sanctions on the country and its citizens? Is that it?
Has Russia reversed its annexation of the Crimea? No. Has it withdrawn its troops and puppet 'governments' from the bogus Republics created from the invasion of the Ukraine? No. Has DIME srengthened the reform movement in Iran or the Ayatollahs in the Guardian Council? The Ayatollahs. Has trade between China and the US been subject to rational argument and reform? Or has it just been one confrontation after another, at a cost of billions of $$$ to the US?

So far, DIME has been notable by its absence, while the USA now stumbles from one crisis to another, splashing the cash with no concern for the day when the bills must be paid. What has Putin's objective been? To do what can be done to make the USA divided at home, and weak abroad. All that money and influence that flowed from Russia with Love in 2016 has been repaid, and as long as Putin's Apprentice keeps delivering for Russia, Putin won't point the finger to his boy and say in sombre tones, 'You're Fired!'.

INF. You need to pay attention.

[filghy2]

I had been away from the boards for a while, busy with real world work. I was just catching up.

I said hard facts. Conjecture / inconclusive challenges are not proof that what I posted is in error.

The greater NYC metro area has over 20 million people, that is 80% of the Entire population of Australia, and it is Very densely packed. Australia's incoming flights from china go to perhaps 2 or 3 locations. The US has dozens of destination and flow from Europe which has flow from china as well. It got all over the place really fast, way before the rest of the world knew what was going on, again thanks to the chicoms lying and covering up.

The who is and has been in china's pocket for a while. They will support any lie the chicoms make.

If you like the chicoms so much, why don't you go live there? Let us know how that works out with you being in this board, etc.

Busy catching up with your downvoting as well. I counted 15, which must be just about every post I made in this thread. Judging by this and you last childish comment you are still in the sandbox.

Here's some hard facts for you. In the latest year Australia had 9 million overseas visitors, compared to a population of 25 million. The US had about 80 million overseas visitors, compared to a population of 330 million. So relative to the population we have more visitors than the US. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL

When social distancing restrictions commenced on 15 March Australia had 300 Covid-19 cases and 5 deaths. At that time the US had 3137 cases and 62 deaths. Hence, the starting point compared to population was pretty similar in both countries, so your argument that Australia was more protected by isolation is bogus. https://virusncov.com/

Incidentally, this was more than 7 weeks after human-to-human transmission of Covid-19 was confirmed by China on January 20, so your argument that the rest of the world had no time to react is also dishonest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic

[sukumvit boy]

NIH stopping critical study that may have told us from where and how Covid -19 came to be.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/nih-s-axing-bat-coronavirus-grant-horrible-precedent-and-might-break-rules-critics-say

[Paladin]

Wrong sandbox, dufus.

[Stavros]

First let me point out that if I do not link aticles from UK newspapers like The Times and the Telegraph, it is because most of their articles are hidden behind a paywall.

Two articles: one is survey of Covid 19 in the US which focuses on differences of race, wealthy and location, on a day when the offical deaths have passed 100,000 and without any comment on it from the President.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/28/us-coronavirus-death-toll-racial-disparity-inequality

The other is an article on Boris Johnson. A lot of the sympathy for Johnson that was expressed when he was rushed to intensive care, has depleted owing to his defence of his special adviser, Dominic Cummings. It is clear that just as Johnson has never shown an interest in details, he needs Cummings to 'fill in the blank spaces', but what is even more important than Covid 19 is the role Cummings is playing to 'deliver Brexit'. The UK will begin a phased relaxation of commercial life next month as a testing and tracking regime is introduced, but will people remain cautius about moving around in public, or decide that if Special Advisers to the Government can flout the rules, it means the rules are there to be broken?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/27/boris-johnson-blundering-schoolboy-commons-liaison-committee-dominic-cummings

[Stavros]

[QUOTE=Stavros;1930713

Two articles: one is survey of Covid 19 in the US which focuses on differences of race, wealthy and location, on a day when the offical deaths have passed 100,000 and without any comment on it from the President.
[/QUOTE]

The President has now made a statement, which is reported here-
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/coronavirus-government-response-updates-trump-reaction-100000-deaths/story?id=70925268

[sukumvit boy]

NIH stopping critical study that may have told us from where and how Covid -19 came to be.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/nih-s-axing-bat-coronavirus-grant-horrible-precedent-and-might-break-rules-critics-say
This article also discusses the the 'conspiracy theories' surrounding the questions as to weather the virus was engineered and than released accidentally or on purpose by the Wuhan biosecurity lab which had been cited for biosecurity deficiencies earlier .

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The President has now made a statement, which is reported here-
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/coronavirus-government-response-updates-trump-reaction-100000-deaths/story?id=70925268The Clueless Buffoon statement is hollow and insincere,because soon after he made that statement he was right back it again with his childish attacks on masks and stroking fear and divisiveness, and coming up a with a weak ass executive order againist social media platforms such as twitter and facebook, all because twitter flagged two of his tweets about mail in voting. and him creating conspiracy theories and pushing propaganda is nothing but a distraction from him and his administration's poor mishandling of the CO-VID 19 Pandemic. And the only thing he cares about is getting re elected no matter the cost.

[Stavros]

This article also discusses the the 'conspiracy theories' surrounding the questions as to weather the virus was engineered and than released accidentally or on purpose by the Wuhan biosecurity lab which had been cited for biosecurity deficiencies earlier .

Thank you for this important artice, with this critical paragraph-
"There is no scientific evidence (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident) that SARS-CoV-2 originated in Shi’s collection of bat viruses at WIV, though researchers concede that such an escape can’t be unequivocally ruled out. The known bat virus closest to SARS-CoV-2, although 96.2% similar, is at least 20 years removed from the pandemic virus in evolutionary time (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins)—meaning that if it escaped from a laboratory, it would have taken decades for it to evolve into the virus that has now killed more than 230,000 people to date. One <cite>Nature Medicine</cite> paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9) further indicated that the pandemic virus shows no signs of having been engineered by scientists, another contention of conspiracy theorists. For one thing, although the researchers note that though the virus binds to a human cellular receptor to initiate an infection, that interaction is not optimal, “strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation,” they write."

We have so many more things to worry about and work on than some conspiracy theory that this has been engineered by Bill Gates to create a global database, or by chemical firms seeking to cash in on trillions of profit from a vaccine. And so on. If we spent more time re-thinking our relationship to the wilderness, its animals and pathogens, and on standards of public hygiene, we will be spending it to the betterment of all. And we can do these things without causing much pain, incurriing little substantial, long-term cost.

[sukumvit boy]

Thank you for distilling and elucidating those critical facts from the article ,Stavros. Which I should have done myself in my original post . My primary problem is that I never learned to type properly and still use the 'hunt and peck' method so my posts are too abbreviated.
The other key point of the article was that the cancelled NIH study might have told us how the Covid-19 virus 'jumped ' to humans . The speculation is that it may have come from bats first and than jumped to some other mammal (pangolins?) before jumping to humans. But I'm sure some future studies will answer those questions.
On another related issue , there is fear that the virus may infect apes and wreak havoc in the captive and wild ape population.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/covid-19-could-threaten-great-ape-populations-researchers-warn-180974512/

[Stavros]

One of the hardest things to describe with many zoonoses is the original source of transmission, first between animals and then from animals to humans. Malaria existed for thousands of years before Ronald Ross identified how the anopheles mosquito transmitted malaria's plasmodium into the human body; Edward Jenner's first inoculation against Smallpox (origin unknown) took place in May 1796 but it was not until the 8th May 1980 that the disease was declared officially eradicated -and following a campaign launched in 1959, should we not thank the WHO for co-ordinating it, rather than attempt to ostracise the orgaization because one ignorant little man doesn't understand how it operates (and evidently doesn't care)?
https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html

The greater worry is the proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and have aready been the cause of infection in other people, in the article linked, the husband of a woman in Boston-

“My husband ended up very sick,” she says. “He was in intensive care for a day, and in hospital for 10 days. But while I was also infected, I had no symptoms at all. I have no idea why we responded so differently.”

And where he acquired antibodies to Covid 19, she has none, which raises questions about the effectiveness of any vaccine that is developed.

But the broader question must be, if there are more people than is known who are asymptomatic, does this mean that an unregulated relaxation of isolation might create a second wave, not next winter, but next month? Caution, as-

"While scientists still don’t know whether asymptomatic people are as contagious as those who display symptoms, there are still many ways in which they can pass on Covid-19. “We know that you don’t need to be coughing to transmit a respiratory infection like Sars-CoV-2,” says Houben. “Talking, singing, even blowing instruments like a vuvuzela (https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020086) – in the past all of those have been shown to transmit respiratory viruses in some way.”

"...when Covid-19 was identified at the start of the year, many public health officials both in the UK and around the world failed to account for the threat posed by asymptomatic transmission. This is largely because they were working on models based on influenza, where some estimates suggest that only 5% of people infected are asymptomatic. As a result, the large scale diagnostic testing regimes required to pick up asymptomatic Covid-19 cases were not in place until too late."

Only one way to find out if asymptomatic carriers cause the disease -unlock!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

[Del06]

1253794 Just FYI: this is a vuvuzela. It's South African, I gather.

[sukumvit boy]

Here's a good article on the rapid repurposing of drugs for Covid-19.
Quite usefull also because it explaines the lifecycle of viral organisms and how various drugs work, with great diagrams .

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/829

[Stavros]

Thanks for this fascinating article -I offer two in return -the first on the seasonality of Covid 19 which ends with a hypothesis-

" Urgent for effective policy is to determine if children are important transmitters, in which case school closures may help slow transmission, or not, in which case resources would be wasted in such closures. Previously it was thought children were not easily infected with SARS-CoV-2. Recent evidence from Shenzhen (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1) suggests that children may be infected and shed detectable virus at about the same rate as adults — so now the only question is whether they transmit as readily. It seems likely the answer is yes, but no data as of this writing to my knowledge."
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

This is a review of the Uk policy, and not a favourable one-

"Last week, Britain became only the second country in the world whose official death toll from coronavirus exceeded (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52925716) 40,000. The scale of the human tragedy is incomprehensible: at the pandemic’s peak, almost 1,000 people were losing their lives (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/) a day. They have left behind more than 40,000 families who are mourning at a time when they cannot come together to share their grief.
This is a pandemic that has tested the public health response of governments in every corner of the world. But the UK has performed poorly on any measure: the death toll is now more than double what the government’s scientific advisers said would be a “good outcome (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-grim-milestone-of-20000)”, and, at this point, it has one of the worst (https://www.ft.com/content/3c53ab12-d859-4ceb-b262-f6a0221ca129) excess deaths rates in the world."
More bad news in the full article-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/07/the-observer-view-on-the-governments-handling-of-the-covid-19-crisis

[PEPE3Z]

1254429

[Rover177]

Flu, pneumonia and other respiratory diseases kill 77,000 in UK and 370,000 in US each year. We expect it, therefore we don't have annual shutdowns.

[Helvis2012]

I dig the vuvuzela

[trish]

Flu, pneumonia and other respiratory diseases kill 77,000 in UK and 370,000 in US each year. We expect it, therefore we don't have annual shutdowns.

For the sake of argument, let’s accept your 370,000 number for deaths per year in the U.S. due to flu, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses. I assume this is a pre-covid-19 statistic. Divide by 365 and you get an average of 1013 deaths per day.

In the U.S. the first case of covid-19 was reported, I believe, on Feb 28. That’s 105 days ago. Since then there have been 115,000 deaths from covid-19. Dividing by 105 days one finds that the average is 1095 deaths per day.

During the last three months we’ve experienced a pandemic that killed at a rate greater than (but the same order of magnitude as) flu, pneumonia and other respiratory diseases combined. Moreover, it is still spreading and we are nowhere near herd immunity. Seems to me this is good reason to take reasonable precautions and make them mandatory.

[Stavros]

This appears to be the first major advance in the treatment of Covid-19 -my only concern is that Steroids are key to its effectiveness. I wonder what amount of steroids and the volume taken over time might impact the body? And I assume anyone transitioning from male to female who needs this treatment will also be concerned -?

"A cheap steroid has become the first life-saving treatment in the Covid-19 pandemic, described by scientists as “a major breakthrough” and raising hopes for the survival of thousands of the most seriously ill.
Dexamethasone is available from any pharmacy, and easily obtainable anywhere in the world. Investigators said the drug was responsible for the survival of one in eight of the sickest patients – those who were on ventilators – in the R (https://www.recoverytrial.net/)ecovery trial (https://www.recoverytrial.net/), the biggest randomised, controlled trial of coronavirus treatments in the world.
The government announced immediate approval for the use of the drug in Covid-19 patients. The UK was leading the way, said the health secretary, Matt Hancock. “This astounding breakthrough is testament to the incredible work being done by our scientists behind the scenes."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/steroid-found-to-help-prevent-deaths-of-sickest-coronavirus-patients

[Ben]

Pandemics result from destruction of nature, say UN and WHO: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/pandemics-destruction-nature-un-who-legislation-trade-green-recovery

[MrFanti]

Pandemics result from destruction of nature, say UN and WHO: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/pandemics-destruction-nature-un-who-legislation-trade-green-recovery
And destruction of nature is directly related to overpopulation
Less people = less destruction of natural sources and habitat.
Lot's of land being destroyed/cleared for "urban development"....

[broncofan]

This appears to be the first major advance in the treatment of Covid-19 -my only concern is that Steroids are key to its effectiveness. I wonder what amount of steroids and the volume taken over time might impact the body? And I assume anyone transitioning from male to female who needs this treatment will also be concerned -?
Dexamethasone, like prednisone, is not really related to the sex hormones. It's most closely related to cortisol, a stress hormone your adrenal glands produce and as a result it can be used to treat addison's disease. It reduces the inflammatory response and is also used in auto-immune disorders and asthma. But it's not an androgen and doesn't promote male secondary sex characteristics.

Early on I think Chinese clinicians had tried prednisone, a related steroid, but they weren't sure it worked and there's a risk of using steroids when you have an infection. I have severe asthma and when I had pneumonia from the flu my doctor was afraid to give me prednisone because there is some evidence that it can reduce respiratory distress but also interfere with your immune system's ability to fight the virus.

Dexamethasone seems to have the greatest life-saving effect when people are on ventilators because it doesn't treat the virus but might keep one's inflammatory response/immune system from killing them. There are also clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis drugs that, like dexamethasone, are intended to treat cytokine storm, the inflammatory response that can kill people with serious disease.

[Stavros]

Thanks for the clarification, Broncofan. Stay healthy!

[Stavros]

At the very moment when States are relaxing isolation policy to revive the economy, either because of a significant decline in infections (New Zealand, Australia, Europe) or regardess of them (USA), there have been worrying signs that the cruel efficiency of the infection is undermining the achievements, but aso the confidence people have that 'we' are near the end of this grim period in our lives.

New Zealand recorded a new outbreak due to two people from the UK visiting relatives; there have been spikes in the rate of infecton in the North-East of the UK while the rate is in decline in London, just as a decline in infections in New York has seen increases in Oklahoma, to take just one example in the US.

The R Rate is critical, as this remark on the German cases points out:

"The coronavirus reproduction rate, known as the R number, has jumped to 1.79 in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health confirmed the rate was now far above what is needed to contain the outbreak over the longer term.
The R number equates to how many people, on average, will be infected by each person who has COVID-19 (https://news.sky.com/topic/covid-19-8518).
If R is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but if it is below 1, the number of infections shrink and coronavirus can be brought under control.
An R of 1.79 means 100 people who get the virus will infect 179 others."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-r-number-jumps-to-1-79-in-germany-after-abattoir-outbreak-12011468

Note also that Abattoirs are the focus of much concern, in the UK, in Ausralia and the USA-

"From the Americas to Europe and Australia, abattoirs have become important vectors for infection, with plants around the world forced to close because of infection breakouts. In the US more than 20,000 meat-packing plant workers have fallen ill, according to the Food and Environment Reporting Network, while Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, France and the UK have faced similar issues in their slaughterhouses. The problem has been exacerbated because meat-processing employees were designated essential in many countries. This meant they generally carried on working in close-confines, helping to spread the disease to the wider community."
https://www.ft.com/content/de2ca3f6-cd63-486a-a727-069762ca4a2a

But I wonder if we are relaxing quarantine measures too soon, and if the anxiety about the economic impact is creating among some a decision to 'take a chance' on returning to 'normal' and just hoping for the best. I understand it, but cannot agree to it, and will continue to restrict my movements, but I fear the wider pattern of behaviour suggests Covid-19 will be with us for some time to come.

[Nikka]

the world is coming to an end

[daltx_m]

the world is coming to an end

Thank Goodness. It's about time.

[Stavros]

Recorded deaths in the UK in the last 24 hours: 149
Recorded new infections of Covid 19 in the last 24 hours:1,118.

Meanwhile, on the Jurassic Coast, the question is: 'where are the toilets?'

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/539fRJ5tpW6SijigYpEWqg--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_independent_577/9a12179a2367ccae58480c5c233df98d

[shaunhitch]

That's bullshit about a new outbreak in New Zealand, there are 13 cases, people who have returned from overseas and are isolated. Meanwhile our economy is fully open and we are about to have a 3rd week of attended professional rugby

[Del06]

To Nikka:

Ever since the world ended
I don't get out as much.
So many people that I've befriended
just don't bother to keep in touch.
So many things we thought were splendid
don't seem to matter today --
Maybe it's just as well the world ended
-- it wasn't working anyway.

By Mose Allison, who also said "I don't worry about a thing, 'cause I know nothing's gonna turn out right."

[Nikka]

aubrey kate and ts jessy dubai both have corona virus but aubrey is at the hospital (according to their tweets)

[Fitzcarraldo]

aubrey kate and ts jessy dubai both have corona virus but aubrey is at the hospital (according to their tweets)

Sad news, but thanks for sharing. :(

[Del06]

aubrey kate and ts jessy dubai both have corona virus but aubrey is at the hospital (according to their tweets)

Please let us know how things turn out.

[Fitzcarraldo]

https://blog.ucsusa.org/anita-desikan/how-covid-19-disinformation-goes-viral

[sukumvit boy]

https://blog.ucsusa.org/anita-desikan/how-covid-19-disinformation-goes-viral
Thanks ,Fitzcarraldo, for that interesting link from The Union of Concerned Scientists about disinformation . Sad to think that even when we finally develop a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus such disinformation and "anti vaccers " may prevent us from reaching 'herd immunity' . Since SARS-CoV-2 is so infectious it is estimated that we will need to reach 74% if the population either recovered or vaccinated to obtain that goal.

[Stavros]

[QUOTE=sukumvit boy;1937215]Thanks ,Fitzcarraldo, for that interesting link from The Union of Concerned Scientists about disinformation . Sad to think that even when we finally develop a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus such disinformation and "anti vaccers " may prevent us from reaching 'herd immunity' . Since SARS-CoV-2 is so infectious it is estimated that we will need to reach 74% if the population either recovered or vaccinated to obtain that goal.[/QUOT

I read that Judy Mitkovits will not appear on tv for the time being, to air her weird views-
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/24/media/sinclair-fauci-conspiracy-bolling/index.html

Here, in the UK, the problem is stark. As the country relaxes its physical distancing and quarantine measures -but they differ between England, Scotland and Wales- the further relaxation on foreign travel to designated countries has now led the UK Govt to insist everyone returning from Spain quarantine themselves for 14 days, due to a sudden spike in Catalonia.

The Spanish are not happy about it, and on The World this Weekend on BBC Radio 4, the Spanish spokesman made the point that it is unnecessary to quarantine if returning travellers are tested, and traced to their homes. But that is precisely why the Govt has imposed quarantine conditions: because what Boris Johnson called a 'world beating' track and trace system, has not been effective in tracing or tracking the people it needs to.

The logical thing woud be to test returning travellers at the border, and if they test postive, they know what to do -but it doesn't happen. For this reason, either the Govt is going to find itself shutting places down as new cases are recorded, or eventually they might just give up. This is also why the Vaccine is both practical science, and an emissary from Almighty God that will Save us All. But suppose it doesn't?

I no longer find it hard to believe that in 21st Century Britain we cannot find the means to create an effective test and trace system, because I can easily believe that the people we trust to make effective policy are simply no good at their jobs. Do they understand smart phone technology? The situation in the UK is not as bad as it is in the USA, where cases continue to rise at an alarming rate mostly due to indifference in those States where it is happening, an indifference based on wilful ignorance. But what Covid 19 demonstrates again and again is a persistence and ease of transmission that begs the question: did we relax control measures too early? And, can we lockdown again with the same effect as in March?

https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/why-uk-governments-test-trace-app-plan-doomed-fail/1687115

[broncofan]

Please let us know how things turn out.
I hope Nikka does continue to update us. Aubrey seems to be tweeting updates on her twitter account for those who are interested in checking in once in a while. Wishing her and Jessy well.

https://twitter.com/AUBREYKATEXXX

[sukumvit boy]

Boosting interferons with existing drugs may be a key to treatment and prevention.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/can-boosting-interferons-body-s-frontline-virus-fighters-beat-covid-19

[jerseygirlangie]

The British Columbia Centre for Disease Control's website (http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/prevention-risks/covid-19-and-sex) has an entire section dedicated to sex education during the virus pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-suffers-new-covid-19-record-outbreak-worsens-asia-europe-live-updates). Deep within, government leading health experts suggest "glory holes" could be the safest technique to minimize virus spreading during sex.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/canada-approves-glory-holes-safe-sex-during-pandemic

[Jdeere562]

How could saliva on your dick, not spread Covid? About the same as kissing. I'll take a pass.

[Stavros]

I think we have reached a critical phase in this pandemic, and it appears to present the same dilemma, whether it is the UK, Continental Europe or the USA and the rest of the world. We know that many people, perhaps the majority, can be infected with the virus and not fall ill, just as we know many who are infected and hospitalized survive and return home, some of them with problems they might be dealing with for years to come, some recovering completely.

But what does not appear to be in doubt, is that because the virus is air-borne and has a wicked ability to transmit from one person to another, relaxing lockdown measures is contributing to an extension of viral infections when, in spite of aggregate numbers declining where they are, in the UK for example, young people not infected by the virus are nevertheless carriers, and thus constitute the most potent threat if not to the rest of society, its elderly and medically vulnerable people.

A pub in Staffordshire opened to customers but apparently did not exercise strict distancing measures. Packed out for some private event, it later emerged 10 had tested positive for Covid 19
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/crown-anchor-pub-stone-staffordshire-coronavirus-135545041.html

It seems to me that Governments must decide if physical distancing measures be re-imposed where they have been lifted, and maintained where they continue to exist. In some countries, for example the USA, it is clear that some States have failed their citizens by not imposing severe limits on human congregation. But, and this is the critical point, are we reaching a moment when people even if they care, decide to 'take their chances' on free movement, with Government unable or unwilling to stop them? With economic decline now a reality for so many, are we at 'breaking point'? And does it mean middle-aged and elderly people must in effect, quarantine themselves in fear of open spaces occupied by reckless youngsters?

[Fitzcarraldo]

It will be interesting to see how the right spins this:
https://people.com/politics/herman-cain-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus/

[broncofan]

It will be interesting to see how the right spins this:
https://people.com/politics/herman-cain-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus/
I like to think of it as his body being his editor. He made reckless public statements and his body issued a correction by dying.

Probably sounds mean, but I wouldn't have any such hard feelings if Herman and others preaching ignorance weren't getting thousands of people killed. All sympathy to those who die while taking reasonable precautions or performing important societal functions. Wearing a red hat at a rally in a covid hot spot to own the libs is not one.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

It will be interesting to see how the right spins this:
https://people.com/politics/herman-cain-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus/Completely agree 1000%.

[Stavros]

I hope someone reviews her cases.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-us-doctor-claims-shes-cured-covid19/news-story/e18cc2609a7aa322104227f53734eb81

[Nikka]

Chile is doing better

[sukumvit boy]

I hope someone reviews her cases.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-us-doctor-claims-shes-cured-covid19/news-story/e18cc2609a7aa322104227f53734eb81
This situation is just so sad and stupid . And I think that in a court of law or if called before a medical licencing board it would easily qualify as unethical and sufficient grounds for medical licence suspension or revocation.
Unfortunately having completed 4 years of undergraduate STEM studies followed by 4 years or more of post graduate medical education is no guarantee of having learned how to think critically !

[blackchubby38]

I think we have reached a critical phase in this pandemic, and it appears to present the same dilemma, whether it is the UK, Continental Europe or the USA and the rest of the world. We know that many people, perhaps the majority, can be infected with the virus and not fall ill, just as we know many who are infected and hospitalized survive and return home, some of them with problems they might be dealing with for years to come, some recovering completely.

But what does not appear to be in doubt, is that because the virus is air-borne and has a wicked ability to transmit from one person to another, relaxing lockdown measures is contributing to an extension of viral infections when, in spite of aggregate numbers declining where they are, in the UK for example, young people not infected by the virus are nevertheless carriers, and thus constitute the most potent threat if not to the rest of society, its elderly and medically vulnerable people.

A pub in Staffordshire opened to customers but apparently did not exercise strict distancing measures. Packed out for some private event, it later emerged 10 had tested positive for Covid 19
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/crown-anchor-pub-stone-staffordshire-coronavirus-135545041.html

It seems to me that Governments must decide if physical distancing measures be re-imposed where they have been lifted, and maintained where they continue to exist. In some countries, for example the USA, it is clear that some States have failed their citizens by not imposing severe limits on human congregation. But, and this is the critical point, are we reaching a moment when people even if they care, decide to 'take their chances' on free movement, with Government unable or unwilling to stop them? With economic decline now a reality for so many, are we at 'breaking point'? And does it mean middle-aged and elderly people must in effect, quarantine themselves in fear of open spaces occupied by reckless youngsters?

Apparently another source of spread are family gatherings. Controlling freedom of movement in public is hard enough. Try imposing restrictions on being able to visit family and friends in private homes.

At this point, I don't think re-imposing lock downs is the answer. I still believe there has to be a way for kids to go back to school. So I think the only answer is this and its not going to sound fair, but none of what's been happening for the past six months has been. The elderly and medically vulnerable may just have to quarantine themselves, while everybody else eases back into a masked, tested, and traced society.

If there are certain businesses that want to continue to let their employees work from home, that would be great. But I think we also need get business areas thriving again because of how many other businesses depend on office workers.

Indoor dining, movie theaters, and gyms can't remained closed indefinitely with no plan in sight of how to re-open them. So if those businesses can prove they can re-open safely, I say let them do it.

Finally, if its possible I say start having outdoor events at a limited/reduced and masked capacity.

[rodinuk]

Apparently another source of spread are family gatherings. Controlling freedom of movement in public is hard enough. Try imposing restrictions on being able to visit family and friends in private homes

The British government has just reintroduced these restrictions in the North of England due to rising cases. Family is just a set of potential disease carriers and if you pop them in a confined indoor space with one or more of them a carrier then chances are they’ll have multiple carriers once they leave....and then spread it if they don’t adhere to social distancing, sanitising etc.

I agree that policing it is a different matter I think that it depends on how close to home it is to you. it was scary during lockdown and people have relaxed their attitudes.

[sukumvit boy]

This situation is just so sad and stupid . And I think that in a court of law or if called before a medical licencing board it would easily qualify as unethical and sufficient grounds for medical licence suspension or revocation.
Unfortunately having completed 4 years of undergraduate STEM studies followed by 4 years or more of post graduate medical education is no guarantee of having learned how to think critically !
Three big studies show no success in treating or preventing SARS-CoV 2 with Hydroxychloroquine.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/three-big-studies-dim-hopes-hydroxychloroquine-can-treat-or-prevent-covid-19
As noted in my post #421 above existing interferon drugs are.

[broncofan]

The elderly and medically vulnerable may just have to quarantine themselves, while everybody else eases back into a masked, tested, and traced society.

This makes an assumption that is not really plausible. The assumption is that if we have a virus that is spreading wildly among our population, that we can protect the most vulnerable members of society.

The biggest predictor of the number of new cases is the baseline number of cases you start with. What I mean is that it takes quite a lot of public health efforts to get r0 to 1, which basically means that each infected person infects one more person. If we have 70,000 diagnosed cases per day, an R0 of 1 would mean we're carrying that many forward

For sure, elderly people are safer if they stay in than if they go out, but how do they get groceries? How do they get medical care? If they live in assisted living, who is it staffed by?

If there truly will be an effective vaccine by early next year, I wonder what it is you're getting as a benefit for tens of thousands of people dying. We couldn't subsidize certain businesses for six more months? Children can't be out of school for one semester? Why isn't Sweden's economy stronger than its neighbors economies when it is the only Scandinavian country not to shutdown?

For sure, if this is a disease that the first round of vaccines and antibody treatments don't touch, we would have to find a way to live with it. But why should we base our public health efforts around that sort of fatalism. Would you want to be the last person to get very sick before a vaccine is distributed?

[blackchubby38]

This makes an assumption that is not really plausible. The assumption is that if we have a virus that is spreading wildly among our population, that we can protect the most vulnerable members of society.

The biggest predictor of the number of new cases is the baseline number of cases you start with. What I mean is that it takes quite a lot of public health efforts to get r0 to 1, which basically means that each infected person infects one more person. If we have 70,000 diagnosed cases per day, an R0 of 1 would mean we're carrying that many forward

For sure, elderly people are safer if they stay in than if they go out, but how do they get groceries? How do they get medical care? If they live in assisted living, who is it staffed by?

If there truly will be an effective vaccine by early next year, I wonder what it is you're getting as a benefit for tens of thousands of people dying. We couldn't subsidize certain businesses for six more months? Children can't be out of school for one semester? Why isn't Sweden's economy stronger than its neighbors economies when it is the only Scandinavian country not to shutdown?

For sure, if this is a disease that the first round of vaccines and antibody treatments don't touch, we would have to find a way to live with it. But why should we base our public health efforts around that sort of fatalism. Would you want to be the last person to get very sick before a vaccine is distributed?


To make sure that elderly people get groceries and medical care, we keep doing the same things that we did during the lockdowns. Supermarkets set aside special hours for them to shop. For routine care, many hospitals are now offering virtual visits. Be they through the telephone or Skype. Family members can help them get to doctor's appointments and/or surgical procedures. There is also things like Access-a-ride or Para Transit.

If they live in assisted living, you take the same precautions that you were doing before. That includes making sure that you don't send people back into the homes that haven't fully recovered from the Corona Virus yet.


If we can figure out way to get kids safely back into the schools, I say we should take that chance. If we can figure out way to keep businesses open, while at the same time keeping people safe and healthy, I say we should take that chance.

Even if an effective vaccine is developed by the end of this year, its going to take at least another month or two to manufacture, distribute, and inoculate people. So we are looking at February/March before things get back to normal. That's a semester and half for children to be out of school. Plus a lot longer to subsidize certain businesses and for people to be out of work.

[blackchubby38]

I think I should make something clear. I don't think this should all happen by Monday, August 3rd. I'm talking about a gradual return over the course of the next 6 weeks.

[sukumvit boy]

Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse , new strains of flu virus with pandemic infectious potential are discovered on pig farms in China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704

[Nikka]

we need to pray

[Stavros]

Apparently another source of spread are family gatherings. Controlling freedom of movement in public is hard enough. Try imposing restrictions on being able to visit family and friends in private homes.
At this point, I don't think re-imposing lock downs is the answer. I still believe there has to be a way for kids to go back to school. So I think the only answer is this and its not going to sound fair, but none of what's been happening for the past six months has been. The elderly and medically vulnerable may just have to quarantine themselves, while everybody else eases back into a masked, tested, and traced society.

If there are certain businesses that want to continue to let their employees work from home, that would be great. But I think we also need get business areas thriving again because of how many other businesses depend on office workers.

Indoor dining, movie theaters, and gyms can't remained closed indefinitely with no plan in sight of how to re-open them. So if those businesses can prove they can re-open safely, I say let them do it.

Finally, if its possible I say start having outdoor events at a limited/reduced and masked capacity.


You are right to draw attention to family gatherings, which I neglected to mention before. If what in the UK we call 'BAME' communities (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic communities) have been affected more by Covid 19 than others, one reason is that the elderly relatives remain in the BAME home, and they are used to living all together in one house. It is easy to slide from this sociological fact to cast blame on BAME, just as at the moment Muslims are a target because of their attendance at Mosques even if worshippers now wear masks.

The dllemma of human congegation we know, but even if the elderly remain isolated compared to others, what happens to those in their 40s or 50s who are vulnerable to infection too? There is no easy way out of this cycle of infection-remission-infection, but I suggest it is due to a) quarantine measures beginning too late to have immediate effect, the virus was on holiday when it should have been in prison; b) the absence of a comprehensive test and tracing organization, which in the UK with a comprehensive NHS we ought to have been able to arrange, means the Govt did not have an accurate geographical profile of the viral spread; and c) relaxation of quarantine measures being lifted too early. In some parts of the USA, as we know, there were no effective quarantine measures and with human congregation common those States are now suffering.

9/11 should have been the template for all: a nationally co-ordinated, total shutdown, with immediate effect.

'Nobody is safe until we are all safe' - but everyone is not safe from the 'flu, and at some point I think we will have to settle for a situation in which Covid 19 becomes as common as the Cold and the 'flu, with the possible outcome that this SARS-related illness can be to some degree be eliminated as have other SARS-related illnesses, so that annual cases of Covid 19 do not cause the havoc they have so far.

I also think that a lot of people now don't trust the advice the Govt is giving, and will ignore some of it. Surveys have claimed that a lot of people decided to go their own way when it was discovered Boris Johnson's special adviser, Dominic Cummings had violated basic self-isolation rules to take his child from London to his parents home in the grim North, and then waft away questions about it as if it were not important. If he could do what he wanted, why not the rest of the country? We have been poorly led in the UK, at least in England. Scotland was also late to the party, though Nicola Sturgeon appears to have a better grip on it than Boris, too busy trying to save Brexit while dishing out awards and privieges to his little Brother and an assortment of Brexit fanatics.

Does this mean wearing masks in public places for some time to come? I think so. The irony is that when I lived in London, or go there, as I have to later this month, I often wished I had a mask on a crowded bus or crowded subway train to protect me from people exuding extraordinary smells, and not just garlic breath. I once fell ill after travelling on a bus on which a young man had a grotesque cough that sounded like it had been orchestratd by Stockhausen - a mask then might have spared me the two weeks I spent in bed. So masks I think are here to stay.

And when the vaccine arrives, who gets it first? And who gets it last?

[blackchubby38]

You are right to draw attention to family gatherings, which I neglected to mention before. If what in the UK we call 'BAME' communities (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic communities) have been affected more by Covid 19 than others, one reason is that the elderly relatives remain in the BAME home, and they are used to living all together in one house. It is easy to slide from this sociological fact to cast blame on BAME, just as at the moment Muslims are a target because of their attendance at Mosques even if worshippers now wear masks.

The dllemma of human congegation we know, but even if the elderly remain isolated compared to others, what happens to those in their 40s or 50s who are vulnerable to infection too? There is no easy way out of this cycle of infection-remission-infection, but I suggest it is due to a) quarantine measures beginning too late to have immediate effect, the virus was on holiday when it should have been in prison; b) the absence of a comprehensive test and tracing organization, which in the UK with a comprehensive NHS we ought to have been able to arrange, means the Govt did not have an accurate geographical profile of the viral spread; and c) relaxation of quarantine measures being lifted too early. In some parts of the USA, as we know, there were no effective quarantine measures and with human congregation common those States are now suffering.

9/11 should have been the template for all: a nationally co-ordinated, total shutdown, with immediate effect.

'Nobody is safe until we are all safe' - but everyone is not safe from the 'flu, and at some point I think we will have to settle for a situation in which Covid 19 becomes as common as the Cold and the 'flu, with the possible outcome that this SARS-related illness can be to some degree be eliminated as have other SARS-related illnesses, so that annual cases of Covid 19 do not cause the havoc they have so far.

I also think that a lot of people now don't trust the advice the Govt is giving, and will ignore some of it. Surveys have claimed that a lot of people decided to go their own way when it was discovered Boris Johnson's special adviser, Dominic Cummings had violated basic self-isolation rules to take his child from London to his parents home in the grim North, and then waft away questions about it as if it were not important. If he could do what he wanted, why not the rest of the country? We have been poorly led in the UK, at least in England. Scotland was also late to the party, though Nicola Sturgeon appears to have a better grip on it than Boris, too busy trying to save Brexit while dishing out awards and privieges to his little Brother and an assortment of Brexit fanatics.

Does this mean wearing masks in public places for some time to come? I think so. The irony is that when I lived in London, or go there, as I have to later this month, I often wished I had a mask on a crowded bus or crowded subway train to protect me from people exuding extraordinary smells, and not just garlic breath. I once fell ill after travelling on a bus on which a young man had a grotesque cough that sounded like it had been orchestratd by Stockhausen - a mask then might have spared me the two weeks I spent in bed. So masks I think are here to stay.

And when the vaccine arrives, who gets it first? And who gets it last?

Here is who gets the vaccine first:

People aged 50 and above.
People in their 40s' with severe preexisting conditions*
All front line workers. That includes people in the service and retail industry.


*-Even though I'm 46 with HTN that is controlled with medication, I'm willing to wait until the second round of vaccinations.

I think once everyone has been vaccinated, you can SLOWLY lift mask mandates and make wearing them voluntary.

[Stavros]

Here is who gets the vaccine first:
People aged 50 and above.
People in their 40s' with severe preexisting conditions*
All front line workers. That includes people in the service and retail industry.
*-Even though I'm 46 with HTN that is controlled with medication, I'm willing to wait until the second round of vaccinations.
I think once everyone has been vaccinated, you can SLOWLY lift mask mandates and make wearing them voluntary.

You are a reasonable man, and there is nothing in your post I disagree with, but in reality, is this how the vaccine, if it is available, will be distributed across the USA? Will it be available to rural communities in Mississippi at the same time as it is in New York City? Will it even be available in Puerto Rico? I regret to say your country is not very well organized when it comes to 'national action' when the leadership required is lacking at the top, or the Men at the Top make decisions to undermine national efforts for political gain...
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air

A useful overview of Boris Johnson's record on the management of Covid 19-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/02/why-boris-johnson-is-suddenly-spooked-by-the-spectre-of-a-second-spike#img-1

[broncofan]

To make sure that elderly people get groceries and medical care, we keep doing the same things that we did during the lockdowns. Supermarkets set aside special hours for them to shop. For routine care, many hospitals are now offering virtual visits. Be they through the telephone or Skype. Family members can help them get to doctor's appointments and/or surgical procedures. There is also things like Access-a-ride or Para Transit.

If they live in assisted living, you take the same precautions that you were doing before. That includes making sure that you don't send people back into the homes that haven't fully recovered from the Corona Virus yet.


If we can figure out way to get kids safely back into the schools, I say we should take that chance. If we can figure out way to keep businesses open, while at the same time keeping people safe and healthy, I say we should take that chance.

Even if an effective vaccine is developed by the end of this year, its going to take at least another month or two to manufacture, distribute, and inoculate people. So we are looking at February/March before things get back to normal. That's a semester and half for children to be out of school. Plus a lot longer to subsidize certain businesses and for people to be out of work.
Activities that are relatively safe when the outbreaks are under control can be high risk when you have the worst outbreaks in the world. The reason we've never suppressed the virus is because we never showed the diligence other countries have and often were content with more people dead and no benefit.

Germany, for instance, got hit hard and had pretty bad outbreaks. Yet they, like most developed countries suppressed the virus. If we had been as successful as Germany we'd have had 120,000 fewer deaths at no cost. It's also worth pointing out that with 4.5 million people infected, there is a high likelihood that approximately 800,000 of these people have long-term symptoms, from post-viral fatigue akin to chronic encephalomyelitis to organ damage. I can link to articles, but I don't know why people think it's been okay to let a new virus spread all over the fucking place.

The reason I point this out in response to your post is that we seem to be in a pattern of choosing the most lax option, having tens of thousands of people die needlessly with no gain except the illusion of normalcy or some idea of ourselves as stoic.

A few minor things:
1. It's unlikely there is sufficient data on vaccines by December, but if there is the entire point of operation warp speed is that the vaccines are produced by the time the data is available. We are producing at risk. That does leave distribution though.
2. Senior care facilities are not just getting infections through obvious administrative negligence. Even well run care facilities have outbreaks because it's difficult to ensure staff don't get it, and the residents are in and out of the hospital. My uncle is at a facility where they forced him to get a test even when they weren't available before allowing him back. He was in limbo at the hospital until a test was available. This is a super cautious facility....they now have outbreaks despite their efforts probably bc we have lots of cases in our county.
3. You don't actually have to commit to close schools for the winter semester or until there's a vaccine. It is actually possible to suppress the virus like every other country so that there are a low level of cases. Schools can be opened if outbreaks are under control. Opening schools with the virus everywhere seems somewhat insane. Major league baseball tests every person almost daily and because they weren't closed off to the public, they've had tons of outbreaks already. I think what you're saying is the type of thing that sounds good and then just doesn't work.

[sukumvit boy]

Just some thoughts about 'Plague Art' . And perhaps some great Halloween costume ideas.
https://cvltnation.com/triumph-of-death-bubonic-plague-art/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pieter_Bruegel_the_Elder
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_doctor#:~:text=A%20plague%20doctor%20was%20 a,the%20plague%20had%20taken%20hold.&text=In%20the%2017th%2C%2018th%2C%20and,was%20fill ed%20with%20aromatic%20items.

[Stavros]

Most of you will be aware that as the virus continues to grow in places like India, as the US record a grim statistic with cases exceeding six million -six million! and no comment from the President!- but with the worrying trend for a spike in new cases in the UK and Europe, I fear that there is a simple cause: we have ended isolation too early.

I understand the enormous pressure to revive the economy, but it seems to me that the evidence shows that just as more people congregate in pubs, cafes and shops, so the inevitable has happened, because even with reductions in infection rates, this virus has a persistence that makes it cruelly difficult to defeat. In the long term, people may acquire some immunity, a vaccine, or vaccines will be developed -and modified as vaccines often are- and some return to pre-Covid normaity will emerge, but I don't see this happening until the Spring of 2021 at the earliest, I hope someone can tell me why this should not be so.

As for the rush to produce a vaccine in the US without proper trials, this is a disgraceful, but typical tactic of the President to manipulate Covid 19 for his morally bankrupt crusade. We wait and see how this pans out, but I for one remain restricted to the town in which I live, the only modification made being trips to Cafes, and once, to the Cinema. Not sure if I shall be so liberal when Winter comes.

Be safe out there, because the virus is still in search of your proteins.

[sukumvit boy]

I for one, agree on all of those issues Stavros . I would just add that it is also important for people to get there yearly flu vaccinations this fall to avoid a 'double whammy' .

[Rover177]

Double the number of cases of annual flu but only half the number of deaths; perspective is needed.

[sukumvit boy]

I for one, agree on all of those issues Stavros . I would just add that it is also important for people to get there yearly flu vaccinations this fall to avoid a 'double whammy' .
Here's more on the Corona Virus/seasonal flu virus possible 'double whammy' effect.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6506/890

[Stavros]

Thanks for this link. I would say as a general comment that in the UK we do now have something approaching a Covid-19 infrastructure with reference to the clinical landscape, from PPE to purpose built 'Nightingale Hospitals', plus the hugely important legacy of practical treatment, so if there is a significant new wave, we ought to be able to 'hit the ground running'.

What we do not have is an adequate test and trace system. People arriving in the UK from abroad be it by Rail, Sea or Air are not tested on arrival, and I have not been made aware of any local test facility, it is in my view a major failure which the Govt has not addressed even though from the start, in January the WHO was insisting on the importance of testing.

You may also know that in addition to fever, coughing and a loss of taste and smell, other symptoms are now associated with Covid 19, such as Delirium, Covid Toe and skin rashes, Conjunctivitis, and inflammation in children, they are discussed here-

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-symptoms-loss-smell-taste-rash-delirium-covid-toe-a9620741.html

[Fitzcarraldo]

I haven't read this report, but apparently it links over a quarter million cases to the Sturgis motorcycle rally:
http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

[Stavros]

I haven't read this report, but apparently it links over a quarter million cases to the Sturgis motorcycle rally:
http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf


The paper highlights two critical issues: attitudes toward social distancing, and the cost of infection. I fear that because people are being infected but not dying, a complacency in some areas, defiance in others -the South Dakota rally is an obvious example- is making control of the disease either impossible or useless, but that as a result the costs of health care have increased, and this, in the US where the costs of health care are already too much for many households. I can understand the frustration with the rules, but they exist for a reason. And to make this worse, I think enough people may decide that some will die, and that is just tough on them, but which also means Covid 19 is going to be around for a long time. I feel for those who are behaving responsibly and having their security undermined by cynics who may be making a visit to the supermaket an ordeal.

And it doesn't help when the President, instead of leading by example, holds rallies where there are no masks, and no social distancing, and ridicules his opponent in the Presidential contest for doing just that. But I am not surprised.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The paper highlights two critical issues: attitudes toward social distancing, and the cost of infection. I fear that because people are being infected but not dying, a complacency in some areas, defiance in others -the South Dakota rally is an obvious example- is making control of the disease either impossible or useless, but that as a result the costs of health care have increased, and this, in the US where the costs of health care are already too much for many households. I can understand the frustration with the rules, but they exist for a reason. And to make this worse, I think enough people may decide that some will die, and that is just tough on them, but which also means Covid 19 is going to be around for a long time. I feel for those who are behaving responsibly and having their security undermined by cynics who may be making a visit to the supermaket an ordeal.

And it doesn't help when the President, instead of leading by example, holds rallies where there are no masks, and no social distancing, and ridicules his opponent in the Presidential contest for doing just that. But I am not surprised. Completely agree that it doesn't help when the So-Called President who doesn't lead by example, holds rallies where masks aren't required and no social distancing,ridicules his political opponent in the presidential election for wearing a mask and practicing social distancing, and i am also not surprised by his toxic rhetoric.

[Rover177]

Masks can cause more trouble than not wearing masks. Different for medical personnel in controlled areas but in the general public, touch a surface and then touch a mask can cause perspiration to take 'a nasty' to an orifice. Tear ducts are especially vulnerable.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Masks can cause more trouble than not wearing masks. Different for medical personnel in controlled areas but in the general public, touch a surface and then touch a mask can cause perspiration to take 'a nasty' to an orifice. Tear ducts are especially vulnerable.

Then learn how to wear one properly.

[njjohn]

Masks can cause more trouble than not wearing masks. Different for medical personnel in controlled areas but in the general public, touch a surface and then touch a mask can cause perspiration to take 'a nasty' to an orifice. Tear ducts are especially vulnerable.

What a pathetic and selfish attempt to rationalize the Trump/Fox News anti mask narrative. The main purpose of wearing a mask is to protect others from you. People not wearing masks and keeping distance is why the US is so pathetic at dealing with Covid. 1000 people a day are dying. Compare that to the modest country of Thailand with a population of 70 million including the 10 million in the mega city of Bangkok has had only 3400 cases and 58 deaths total! They are currently have ONE case. Why?... because people listened to the government lead by heath experts and didn't politicize common sense measures. Thailand's success is more the rule across the world not the exception.

This whole "not wearing a mask is expressing your freedom is ridiculous". What's next the "freedom" to fly through your windshield in a car accident by not wearing government mandated seat belts? At least in that case your only killing yourself not others.

[filghy2]

This whole "not wearing a mask is expressing your freedom is ridiculous". What's next the "freedom" to fly through your windshield in a car accident by not wearing government mandated seat belts? At least in that case your only killing yourself not others.

Actually, the same types argued against mandatory seat belts in the past, including dubious arguments that they actually increased risk. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/seat-belts-masks-coronavirus-wellness-trnd/index.html

[filghy2]

Double the number of cases of annual flu but only half the number of deaths; perspective is needed.

Wrong. Annual flu deaths in recent years average around 40,000 in the US, so Covid-19 is already 5 times worse. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[Stavros]

Last night the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson announced a new set of rules that will attempt to short circuit a resurgence of Covid 19. In doing so he praised the British people's love of freedom (because, Boris, we aren't in love with dictatorships), and then blamed the very same people for being the reason there has been so worrying a spike in infections new measures must be taken.

In his perfect world, where he is responsible for everything and liable for nothing, he made no mention of the fact that he was the man who urged people to go back to work, to revive their high streets by going to shops, pubs, cafes and restaurants, and who said we can all go on holiday as long as we behave and follow the guidelines -but to say that would be to admit that we have reached September and his policies have failed. Like the Brexit merry-go-round, we are back where we started in March, but Johnson is too much of a coward to re-impose the lockdown that happened then, and it seems nobody in his Cabinet, assuming they knew this was about to happen, had the balls to challenge him to go further than he has.

So here we are: the confusing and inconsistent rules that have been partially to blame for the spike, are not cleared up: the number of people allowed at a wedding will be reduced from 30 to 15, the maximum allowed at a funeral will be 30. You can drink yourself stupid with your mates in the pub before 10pm, but then you must leave. Why not 9pm? Or 8pm? Spectators will not be allowed into sporting venues.

I think most people will abide by the rules, but are not as willing to do so as they were in March. And with the prospect of the service sector shutting down, with one estimate that even with financial support a million workers face losing their jobs before Christmas, I don't believe the six-month period Boris Johnson will hold, and not just because he can't stick to any plan that he produces, even when he proclaims it as some once-in-a-lifetime no-pain-no-gain solution.
He is incosistent because he is incompetent.

I think we are moving toward a policy -and among the peope, an attitude- in which we accept that we must live with Covid 19 and all that implies with regard to infections, and deaths, and wait for the vaccine to lessen its impact on society, assuming that it does.
Before Christmas, I expect the same man who has imposed this six-month semi-lockdown on the UK to lift it, given that even with the resurgence 'only' 1% of the population are dying from it, and we have learned enough about its clinical profile to manage the illness in our hospitals.

People may disagree with me, but in the case of the UK, we have suffered from incompetent government, a government that declined to test and trace people in March, then said we would have a 'world beating' test and trace system that is anything but, and with a Prime Minister who rarely talks to the heads of the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and true to form as the laziest Minister of recent times, doesn't much communicate with his own Cabinet, and whose policies on Covid 19 have been issued as, in effect, decrees from Downing Street, none of them submitted to Parliament for its approval.

Combine that incompetence with his desperate moves in Brexit and it is no surprise the rumour is that Johnson will be dumped by his own party next year, unless he decides to resign, given his complaints he can't live on his annual £150,402 salary, finds the apartment in No 10 too small, can't get a nanny, and he and his wife have to cook their own food, and on top of that, pay Council Tax.

The US President thinks it is 'a shame' that 200,000+ Americans are dead, millions infected. And indeed it is- well, it is actually a lot more than that, but let's not get emotional about it. But when the same crisis that has hit the US and the UK is managed so much better in Germany, Greece- yes, Greece-, South Korea and New Zealand, one is tempted to ask: is there another way?

Is it too late to change course? No, but that requires leadership of the kind that is so obviously lacking in the UK right now. Six months? My fear is that this incoherent policy will drag on for another year, compounded by the reality of Brexit when it kicks in next January, kicking being the most likely description of its impact.

New restrictions in England are reviewed here-
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-restrictions-lockdown-boris-johnson-new-law-fines-b533851.html

[Stavros]

It may be possible for someone diagnosed with COVID-19 to be admitted to hospital for treatment on a Friday, and be returned home on Monday, claiming to be fit and healthy, or to be over the worst of the infection. Whether or not hydroxychloroquine has been used or not, the reality that is emerging is that COVID-19 may have long term health consequences.

It is called ‘Long Covid’ and includes illnesses related to muscle fatigue, damage to the lungs and gut, and possible mental health impairment related to memory loss and anxiety. Clinically, it is argued studies over 25 years need to establish if COVID-19 is a here-today gone-tomorrow illness, or one that will continue to affect humans for decades to come. In the meantime you will find some of the arguments of what might constitute ‘Long COVID’ in this link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54296223

[Stavros]

The most imporant news on Covid-19 so far, is that a vaccine trial has a 90% success rate, though this must be understood in the context of the trials, and it is not yet known if the vaccine confers immunity, and whether or not an infection can re-occur. I also understand the vaccine must be taken in two doses three weeks apart.

-The trial involved 43,538 people 42% of whom are described as having 'diverse backgrounds'.
-As Pfizer-BioNTech state in their press release-

"The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule. As the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary."

-Subject to Government approval, Pfizer-BioNTech state that they "expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."

Poorly presented press release (paragraph breaks would make it more readable) is here-
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

I am not sure how this will impact other vaccine trials, but this is the first positive move in the campaign against this virus. As to who gets the vaccine first, that I cannot know.

[sukumvit boy]

Yes there are many Phase III trials nearing completion now showing good results but requiring 2 doses. The Chinese already have a vaccine in production for months with 2 plants able to produce 100 million doses per year . Reportedly ,several thousand Chinese Party officials have already been vaccinated. Unfortunately , although the Chinese have pledged to release a substantial portion of their production through a world wide consortium those doses will not be available to Americans because Trump pulled us out of that consortium !
I will find the article and post it here.

[sukumvit boy]

Here is that article .
https://outline.com/VgXCC9

[Stavros]

For me what is important about these developments, is that they offer a collective way of responding to global health problems. There is a wealth of literature in international relations derived from the so-called 'Realist' or 'Power' perspective that argues States only act in their own interest. They undermine international cooperation be it the EU, the UN, or famous flops like the League of Nations. Yet the argument that States that trade with each other don't go to war with each other has strong credentials, that the First World War was not caused by capitalist competition, as Lenin argued, but by crucial failures of diplomacy. Throughout the 19th century there was a developing consensus that States and Empires needed to cooperate with each other to prevent the spread of diseases such as Cholera and Typhoid, and these became the foundations of international organization that Reaists are reluctant to admit worked, or rely on their claim that cooperation only worked when it was in the interests of States to do so.

Now, with a new and very different President taking office, there is an opportunty to re-set relations with Russia and China, and indeed Iran, by tackling a global pandemic with a global agreement to share the science. It has happened with space exploration and nuclear developments, so there is no reason for the US, Europe, Russia and China to all 'go it alone' when we are all in the same trolley heading down the hill. It may look unreasonable right now, and it might not lead to China removing its handcuffs from Hong Kong and 'cleaning up' Xianjang, and I doubt Putin will withdraw his forces from Eastern Ukraine, but we have to start somewhere, and I think, at the very least, that nobody benefits from Covid-19, and we all benefit from a vaccine.

And I think, and I hope Biden promotes a more collegiate attitude to international relations. Because confrontation doesn't work.

[Nikka]

I will use the vaccine so I can fly and fuck some trannies

[sukumvit boy]

I will use the vaccine so I can fly and fuck some trannies
LOL,and where would you be 'headed' Nikka? Perhaps Thailand ,Colombia or Brazil?
By the way now is a great time to fly , I just finisher some travel around the United States and the airports are empty and so are the planes.

[Nikka]

LOL,and where would you be 'headed' Nikka? Perhaps Thailand ,Colombia or Brazil?
By the way now is a great time to fly , I just finisher some travel around the United States and the airports are empty and so are the planes.


my country Chile borders are closed, and they will stay like that until a massive vaccination arrives

[BostonBad]

Damn Covid.

I haven't swallowed ballmilk in months because of it. Fuck u Coronavirus.

[Stavros]

Damn Covid.

I haven't swallowed ballmilk in months because of it. Fuck u Coronavirus.

You don't do in calls? And I thought you were a most receptive sort of man...

[collector171]

Vaccines started shipping last Friday via United Cargo planes, they are positioning it ready for local distribution pending approval. This was in a WSJ article which is behind a paywall

[sukumvit boy]

New Sars-CoV-2 strain emerges .I seems to be more easily transmitted but not more lethal. The big,still unanswered ,question is will the vaccines now being distributed work against this new strain?
https://abc7ny.com/new-covid-strain-of-in-england-mutation/8929849/

[Stavros]

Another big question: will people modify or continue to modify their behaviour to help stop the spread of Covid-19 and new strains? My movements are limited to home-shop-home, with no social mixing, and nothing planned between now and -well, when? Even the other day I realized I was relucant to talk to my neighbour, who is 85, even though we were both masked and in the street. Maybe it was because I suddenly realized she had made her mask out of an old pair of Marks & Spencer knickers and it sort of made me feel queer...

[sukumvit boy]

Another big question: will people modify or continue to modify their behaviour to help stop the spread of Covid-19 and new strains? My movements are limited to home-shop-home, with no social mixing, and nothing planned between now and -well, when? Even the other day I realized I was relucant to talk to my neighbour, who is 85, even though we were both masked and in the street. Maybe it was because I suddenly realized she had made her mask out of an old pair of Marks & Spencer knickers and it sort of made me feel queer...
LOL,why should you feel "queer" you're not the one wearing the Knickers?

[Ben]

Humans are not resources. Coronavirus shows why we must democratise work:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/humans-resources-coronavirus-democratise-work-health-lives-market

[Stavros]

LOL,why should you feel "queer" you're not the one wearing the Knickers?

Medical thread, medical version of queer. Or, I felt ill. Some of her relatives have had Covid-19, through school and university, and I looked at that off-white fabric, and then it started, and I stepped away. But I guess it proves that Marks & Spencer underwear last for years.

[Torris]

New Sars-CoV-2 strain emerges .I seems to be more easily transmitted but not more lethal. The big,still unanswered ,question is will the vaccines now being distributed work against this new strain?
https://abc7ny.com/new-covid-strain-of-in-england-mutation/8929849/

Isn’t that the point of the mutation? Viruses die if they kill all their hosts, so the mutations are less lethal. The goal is to feed not kill.

[Torris]

Another big question: will people modify or continue to modify their behaviour to help stop the spread of Covid-19 and new strains? My movements are limited to home-shop-home, with no social mixing, and nothing planned between now and -well, when? Even the other day I realized I was relucant to talk to my neighbour, who is 85, even though we were both masked and in the street. Maybe it was because I suddenly realized she had made her mask out of an old pair of Marks & Spencer knickers and it sort of made me feel queer...

Recovery rate is over 97%

https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#:~:text=Experts%20don't%20have,%%20and%20 99.75%.

Experts also don’t have information about the outcome of every infection. However, early estimates predict that the overall COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.

[Torris]

LOL,and where would you be 'headed' Nikka? Perhaps Thailand ,Colombia or Brazil?
By the way now is a great time to fly , I just finisher some travel around the United States and the airports are empty and so are the planes.

I flew to see my parents for Christmas on Dec. 20. Plane was only about 2/3 full. Only a few middle aisle seats and I assume those were families sitting together in the same row.

I was stunned and pleasantly surprised. Normally that flight is packed from front to back

[Torris]

Anyone know anything about potential HIV infection/susceptibility from potential Covid vaccines?

https://www.ajmc.com/view/researchers-warn-of-heightened-risk-of-hiv-with-certain-covid-19-vaccines

[Fitzcarraldo]

Recovery rate is over 97%

https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#:~:text=Experts%20don't%20have,%%20and%20 99.75%.

Experts also don’t have information about the outcome of every infection. However, early estimates predict that the overall COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.

Over 300,000 Americans dead in less than a year. Over 3000 dying a day now. Which statistic is more important to you?

[broncofan]

Anyone know anything about potential HIV infection/susceptibility from potential Covid vaccines?

https://www.ajmc.com/view/researchers-warn-of-heightened-risk-of-hiv-with-certain-covid-19-vaccines
A vaccine that was in development stages in Australia used an HIV viral protein as part of its design. There was no risk of people developing HIV because it was a protein from the virus and was not capable of replicating, but it raised some of the same antibodies that HIV antibody tests are sensitive to. There are PCR tests for HIV but they are more expensive and it would be a major flaw for a vaccine to cause false positives on antibody tests for HIV because it's the primary means of testing for it. But they WERE false positives. Nobody was HIV positive or at risk of it.
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/501223-csl-university-of-queensland-quit-covid-19-vaccine-trials-due-to-hiv-antibody-response?v=preview

It was not one of the major vaccines developed by Pfizer, Astrazeneca, GSK, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson etc.

Your article talks about the risk with AD5 vaccines. I just assumed it dealt with the Queensland vaccine because I had just read about it. If you're concerned, neither Pfizer nor Moderna are adenovirus vaccines.

[broncofan]

Anyone know anything about potential HIV infection/susceptibility from potential Covid vaccines?

https://www.ajmc.com/view/researchers-warn-of-heightened-risk-of-hiv-with-certain-covid-19-vaccines
"In addition to the Ad5 COVID-19 vaccine candidates, several other leading vaccines, including ones made by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/the University of Oxford, use different adenoviruses as vectors. There’s no evidence that any of those adenoviruses increases the risks of an HIV infection."

The article below says only the Russian state vaccine and Cansino biologics, a vaccine in China use the ad5 vector. There isn't any evidence that those particular vaccines increase risk for HIV but if it's a heightened concern there are a half dozen other vaccines that use different technologies, different adenoviruses as vectors, and an inactivated virus vaccine.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus)

[Nikka]

the world is doomed

[broncofan]

Over 300,000 Americans dead in less than a year. Over 3000 dying a day now. Which statistic is more important to you?
I did some digging early on because there was a lot of sophistry about mortality rates for covid compared to flu. The mortality rate of influenza A often cited is .1% but it was difficult to find whether it was a case fatality rate or an infection fatality rate. On CDC's website, one can see that the statistic is calculated by deaths from flu divided by positive tests for flu. This is a case fatality rate and does not take into account mildly symptomatic cases or asymptomatic flu cases which also exist.

While there is greater testing sufficiency for flu than covid, people are also less motivated to test for it because it's rightly considered less of an epidemiological threat. I eventually found a stat for flu that cited its IFR or infection fatality rate as .025% which is one quarter of its listed CFR. This makes sense but I can't verify it. But it would put the IFR of flu at about 1/28 that of the commonly estimated IFR for Covid.

Anyhow, CFRs for covid depend on how good the testing program is in a country. We've seen the CFR as high as 10% when only very sick people are tested or less than 2% when a testing regime is good. The IFR, which is estimated from serological surveys and sometimes from cruise ships in which everyone was tested, is believed to be about .7%. But if someone has tested positive already, the CFR will give a better idea of their mortality risk because they've crossed the threshold required to get a test. Also, there is not chance that IFR for covid is anywhere near as low as .25%, which one might infer from Torris' post above.

People try to make covid look similar to flu by comparing IFR of Covid to CFR of Flu. Even doing that covid is 7 times more deadly but that underestimates the difference.

[broncofan]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/5/5/21246567/coronavirus-flu-comparisons-fatality-rate-contagiousness

Anyhow, I found an article that said the same thing. They have an epidemiologist who estimates flu ifr at .02-.05%. This would make the mortality difference between flu and covid anywhere between 14 and 35x.

[Fitzcarraldo]

She should've stayed on the island:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/entertainment/dawn-wells-obit/index.html

:(

[filghy2]

Anyone know anything about potential HIV infection/susceptibility from potential Covid vaccines?

https://www.ajmc.com/view/researchers-warn-of-heightened-risk-of-hiv-with-certain-covid-19-vaccines

Interestingly, an Australian project to produce a Covid vaccine was abandoned because it was producing false HIV positive results. I wonder if there's a connection? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/how-the-uq-covid-19-vaccine-induces-false-positive-hiv-results/12975048

[filghy2]

This seems to have been overshadowed by recent events, but global deaths from this pandemic have just passed 2 million. https://virusncov.com/
Deaths in the USA have also just passed 400,000, which is over 1,200 per million population. That is a higher death rate than all but a handful of European countries. In other words, the USA under Trump has done worse than all of those shithole countries he has derided.
Well done all you Covid deniers and minimisers.

[sukumvit boy]

How Covid-19 unlocked the era of messenger RNA vaccines
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00019-w

[Stavros]

Two trends that people need to be aware of-
a) younger people are not immune to infection, in fact rates are rising;
and b) being vaccinated is not a 'get of gaol' card, you may still become a carrier and a threat to others.

Yes, the rate of infections and fatalities may slow this year, but the public health impact I believe will demand the retention of lockdown procedures probably for most of this year, if responsible Governments adhere to the science. This is unwelcome news for everyone, and I am alarmed at the thought that the UK Government may relax lockdown restrictions as early as next month. Basically, we are not close to defeating this pandemic, and can only hope to have it under control by Christmas, if we ever do. The best we can hope for is that Covid 19 be reduced to a constant, but not extensive threat, and as we have 'flu jabs every year, so there may need to be annual Covid jabs too, even if limited to those over 75 and those with vulnerable health conditions.

"At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, reports indicated that the disease was mostly affecting older adults, and that young people were more likely to have milder cases of the disease.

But according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (http://https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e1.htm), over the summer, in the United States, people under age 30 accounted for more than 20% of COVID-19 cases and were seen as more likely to transmit the virus than others. This trend has continued into the fall.
Coronavirus infections requiring hospitalization are not only possible in younger adults, but the rate of these cases is increasing as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus continues to spread. Lisa Maragakis, M.D., M.P.H. (http://https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/results/directory/profile/0009313/lisa-maragakis), senior director of infection prevention at Johns Hopkins, sheds light on the new data."


https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-and-covid-19-younger-adults-are-at-risk-too

"After I get a COVID-19 vaccine, is it safe to visit in person with friends and family?
Answer From Daniel C. DeSimone, M.D.

After getting a COVID-19 vaccine, it's still important to take safety precautions, such as avoiding close contact with others, to prevent the spread of the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 <abbr title="coronavirus disease 2019">(COVID-19)</abbr>. Further research is needed to understand the immunity that a <abbr title="coronavirus disease 2019">COVID-19</abbr> vaccine provides and how long protection lasts before experts will consider changing current safety recommendations."
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/visits-after-covid-19-vaccination/faq-20506463

[tslvr]

Why on earth would President Biden announce there is nothing we can do to stop the trajectory of virus this past Friday? Are we just supposed to give up?

[filghy2]

Why on earth would President Biden announce there is nothing we can do to stop the trajectory of virus this past Friday? Are we just supposed to give up?

What he actually said was that it would take some time to turn things around, which is a completely different point. When you inherit a virus that is spreading rapidly (nearly 200,000 new cases per day), and the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, it isn't possible to stop it quickly, especially when the federal government does not have the power to order lockdowns. Even countries that have been much more successful have taken weeks to get on top of more limited outbreaks.

Or would you prefer that he just told you it would vanish by magic?

[tslvr]

What he actually said was that it would take some time to turn things around, which is a completely different point. When you inherit a virus that is spreading rapidly (nearly 200,000 new cases per day), and the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, it isn't possible to stop it quickly, especially when the federal government does not have the power to order lockdowns. Even countries that have been much more successful have taken weeks to get on top of more limited outbreaks.

Or would you prefer that he just told you it would vanish by magic?
I recommend to look up his exact quote.

[broncofan]

I recommend to look up his exact quote.
You made a characterization about what Biden said. Someone contested it. Now you're telling him to look up the quote. Why don't you look it up and post it since you're the one who initially claimed he said something?

[filghy2]

I recommend to look up his exact quote.

I assume this is what you are referring to. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-says-nothing-can-change-the-trajectory-of-covid-pandemic-over-the-next-several-months.html

I haven't been able to find the original words in full, but here's what he said on the same issue yesterday. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-fight-to-contain-the-covid-19-pandemic/

"And our plan will take time. Progress from our plan will take time to measure, as people getting infected today don’t show up in case counts for weeks, and those who perish from those — from the disease die weeks after that exposure. You know, despite the best — our best intentions, we’re going to face setbacks, which I will always explain to you and acknowledge.

And let me be clear: Things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. The death toll, experts tell us, is likely to top 500,000 by the end of next month — February — and cases will continue to mount. We didn’t get into this mess overnight, and it’s going to take months for us to turn things around. But let me be equally clear: We’re going to get through this. We will defeat this pandemic."

Does that sound like what you described or what I described?

It's interesting that you made only one post on this topic over the previous year that Trump was in charge, which was to complain that the cure was worse than the disease. Yet now after only a few days you are complaining that Biden isn't doing enough to offer hope. What exactly do you want him to do?

[tslvr]

Please, I was not trying to steer how someone thinks, I just wanted ideas or thoughts on why he would say what he said after he said he had a plan to end Covid. But his exact qoute is as follows: 'If we fail to act, there will be a wave of evictions and foreclosures in the coming months as this pandemic rages on because there's nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months." I'm not looking for a fight, just wondering agter he said he has a plan to stop or control the pandemic, he is now saying there is nothing that can be done.

[broncofan]

Is he saying that in a discussion of the stimulus bill? It sounds to me like he's saying that we need to pass a stimulus bill so that people don't get evicted from their homes while a pandemic is still raging. We are vaccinating about 1.5 million people (1 dose) per day and it takes about 14 days for people to develop antibodies that provide partial protection from the first dose.

Yes there is a strategy to reduce transmission of the virus but every strategy takes time to work if you've been paying attention at all. The R0 of the virus is 2.3 without public health measures and public health measures reduce it to just below 1, which is what is required to prevent increases in the number of cases that carry forward. As a simple matter of math, that takes a decent amount of time.

The single sentence you quote is a clunky if/then statement but it sounds like the focal point is that he doesn't want people to be evicted from their homes in the coming months. I can only imagine that you saw this quote by itself on an outlet that intended to misrepresent it because it's pretty much similar in sentiment to everything else he's said but is not phrased perfectly.

[broncofan]

It's entirely consistent with what filghy2 claims he said and what he has said a half dozen times. We have immediate control over the measures we take but it takes time for them to have an effect. He doesn't want people to think you go from 4,000 deaths a day to nothing overnight or that 200,000 cases can become a much smaller number within a few weeks because it's simply not possible.

The incubation period of the virus can be as long as 2 weeks and death tolls trail at least 3 weeks from transmission so even when measures are instituted you can have initial increases in both metrics.

Vaccination takes place in two doses and people develop some protection two weeks after the first dose and a couple weeks after the second. He already has the fda trying to work with moderna and pfizer on approving booster shots in the event that there isn't sufficient immunity to the South African and UK variants of the virus. He has also set benchmarks for distribution of the vaccine. If you don't mind me asking, where did you encounter the quotation?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Please, I was not trying to steer how someone thinks, I just wanted ideas or thoughts on why he would say what he said after he said he had a plan to end Covid. But his exact qoute is as follows: 'If we fail to act, there will be a wave of evictions and foreclosures in the coming months as this pandemic rages on because there's nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months." I'm not looking for a fight, just wondering agter he said he has a plan to stop or control the pandemic, he is now saying there is nothing that can be done.

The key part of the quote is the beginning: "If we fail to act...." If we act, we can mitigate the negative consequences. It's not really that perplexing of a conditional statement.

[filghy2]

Please, I was not trying to steer how someone thinks, I just wanted ideas or thoughts on why he would say what he said after he said he had a plan to end Covid. But his exact qoute is as follows: 'If we fail to act, there will be a wave of evictions and foreclosures in the coming months as this pandemic rages on because there's nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months." I'm not looking for a fight, just wondering agter he said he has a plan to stop or control the pandemic, he is now saying there is nothing that can be done.

Your whole point relies on taking a single phrase out of the context of everything else he has said. And you've deliberately ignored the other words I quoted, which make clear what he really means. After all the bullshit Trump has spoken on this virus, do you seriously want to engage in hair-splitting about one sentence by Biden?

If you genuinely wanted other peoples' thoughts why do you ignore their responses and just repeat the same dubious point? And why do you refuse to say what you think they should be doing?

[broncofan]

The key part of the quote is the beginning: "If we fail to act...." If we act, we can mitigate the negative consequences. It's not really that perplexing of a conditional statement.
I had initially thought that and was going to argue it but I think "fail to act" refers to failing to provide economic assistance while we're waiting for health measures to take effect. The negative consequences would be people getting evicted, which can't be avoided in the short-term with health measures alone bc of the time lag so we need to provide some financial assistance (or eviction moratorium) right now. In essence, health measures alone won't prevent some financial difficulty.

After "because" he states what he's stated about a half dozen times but much more strongly. This is the problem with taking extemporaneous comments in isolation because nobody is a perfect speaker. I'd be curious if this guy knows when he said it and what else he said because he clearly wasn't calling for fatalism. It is all highly lame. He's arguing about the urgency of helping people financially...

I also read today that he has now helped secure enough pfizer and moderna to cover 300 million people (600 million doses) by late Summer.

[broncofan]

Do a control f search in this link for "fail to act" and you'll see the context. Highly lame. He's saying we have to provide financial assistance to people because the virus won't disappear. In the next paragraph he even says not providing assistance would make the pandemic worse. So he's obviously not saying it doesn't matter what we do.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/22/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-american-rescue-plan-and-signing-of-executive-orders/ (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/22/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-american-rescue-plan-and-signing-of-executive-orders/)

Edit: If you enter the phrase into google, you find the intentional distortion being amplified by fox news and ny post so we know where whatshisface encountered it.

https://www.google.com/search?q=if+we+fail+to+act+there+will+be+a+wave+of +evictions&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwihjejAur3uAhVsMlkFHYZzBIMQ_AUoAXoECBMQA w&biw=1366&bih=657