2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[KnightHawk 2.0]

I think if the Democrats won't support their own candidate (who has pledged delegates and millions and millions of dollars in campaign contributions) then there's no reason for anyone else to support their candidate. They need to learn to commit and support. Hand wringing won't move the needle.

Agree 100%. And the reasons Joe Biden isn't stepping down from the campaign trail,is because he defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 Election,and thinks he's the best candidate to defeat him again in the upcoming election. And he also wants to prove to his fellow Democrats that he is the right man for the job,and can serve and complete a second term.

[filghy2]

Do you believe that Biden can effectively make the case against Trump and perform the job for the next 4 years? If the answer is no, and you also believe that Trump is a threat to democracy, then surely something must be done even if it's risky.

Risk aversion is not a good strategy when you are well behind and the stakes are high.

I think if the Democrats won't support their own candidate (who has pledged delegates and millions and millions of dollars in campaign contributions) then there's no reason for anyone else to support their candidate. They need to learn to commit and support. Hand wringing won't move the needle.

So ignore what we saw last week, assume the voters will also ignore it, assume the polls are wrong and everything's really going fine? Sounds like a great strategy.

It seems like you would rather Trump be President than admit you have been wrong.

[filghy2]

Polling results have not been reliable since at least 2016. Hillary Clinton was supposed to win, according to polls. Since Biden was elected, Democrats were supposed to lose in midterms but didn't. Initiatives to preserve abortions were supposed to fail but didn't. Also, today is July 3rd. The election is in November.

I'm guessing that if Biden was doing well in the polls you would not be telling us to ignore them.

The idea that polls were okay until 2016 but no good since then seems to be a bit of a myth. Polls have always been subject to error, and it can go either way (ie Biden's support could also be overstated). Polls in 2022 were actually better than average historically.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

[Stavros]

Polling results have not been reliable since at least 2016. Hillary Clinton was supposed to win, according to polls. Since Biden was elected, Democrats were supposed to lose in midterms but didn't. Initiatives to preserve abortions were supposed to fail but didn't. Also, today is July 3rd. The election is in November.

But Hillary Clinton did win in 2026 -the popular vote. What the polls do not or cannot show is how votes in the general election translate into the results of the Electoral College. I don't see how Trump can win in November unless he both retains his share of the Republican vote and increases his support among Democrat and undecided voters. The full impact of the court cases might not be as damaging as the polls suggest, but the only way I see Trump winning is through the manipulation of the vote by state officials, with the prospect that the Supreme Court finds some sophistry to change the outcome. But all this presumes the two candidates are still there in November, and we can't be sure of that.

On another level, the polls in the UK in 2017 were wrong because the polling organizations underestimated the 'youth vote', so the organizations are capable of being wrong, though I assume after the 2016 experience they have smartened up their act.

[filghy2]

What the polls do not or cannot show is how votes in the general election translate into the results of the Electoral College.

They do because they do polling for the swing states where results have been close in recent elections. Trump is ahead in 6 of the 7 and tied in the other, which would mean a clearcut EC win. Biden probably needs at least Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to win.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/ele...eground-states

[Fitzcarraldo]

So ignore what we saw last week, assume the voters will also ignore it, assume the polls are wrong and everything's really going fine? Sounds like a great strategy.

It seems like you would rather Trump be President than admit you have been wrong.

No one is ignoring what happened on one evening last week. But that was one event that should not determine the entirety of time that follows it. That poor performance did not change what Biden has achieved while in office.

I do not want Trump to be president. If a non-Biden savior were going to emerge, it would have happened before the Democratic primaries. The Democrats need to rally behind their candidate.

[Fitzcarraldo]

I'm guessing that if Biden was doing well in the polls you would not be telling us to ignore them.

The idea that polls were okay until 2016 but no good since then seems to be a bit of a myth. Polls have always been subject to error, and it can go either way (ie Biden's support could also be overstated). Polls in 2022 were actually better than average historically.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

You are guessing wrong. I have been skeptical of the polls since 2016.

[Stavros]

They do because they do polling for the swing states where results have been close in recent elections. Trump is ahead in 6 of the 7 and tied in the other, which would mean a clearcut EC win. Biden probably needs at least Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to win.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/ele...eground-states

A fair point to make, if scary.

[Stavros]

Kamala Harris -against, in the Guardian, and against, in the Telegraph (consistently anti-Biden-Harris anyway).

If she divides opinion so much, does she have a genuine shot? And then it is possible that she may be moulded by the Office rather than the other way round, and a lot would depend on who she brings in to her White House team, setting aside the claims she is a poor manager of people.

I just don't know enough to make a judgment.

Telegraph also pushing the Michelle Obama argument, perhaps prompted by their American informers?

Who can we blame for Joe Biden’s gamble? Angry Democrats are starting to point the finger | Emma Brockes | The Guardian

Kamala Harris Mocked Over BET Awards Video: 'Cringe' - Newsweek

Republicans launch attack ads over fears Kamala Harris will replace Joe Biden (telegraph.co.uk)

The world must prepare for President Michelle Obama (msn.com)

[Stavros]

‘We have never been here as a country’: Historian Heather Cox Richardson puts Trump immunity ruling into perspective (yahoo.com)