The US Mid-Term Elections 2022

[blackchubby38]

Maybe the question is, how did the polls get it wrong? Is it the modelling they use, is it the assumptions polling organizations make that shape their questions and results? Clearly more people were energized by Roe-v-Wade than the polls suggest, maybe more were registering a disaffection with the extremism of the Republican Party than the polls allow, though one also notes that the Party did well in Florida and Texas and some of the Northern States. The polls failed to predict a hung parliament in the UK in 2017, so I wonder if it is not just a national thing, but a flaw in polling methods, and whether it means they can be trusted in future if they do not change.

Or is it the difficulty of arriving at a consensus on policies in so divided a country?

I have been questioning the reliability of polls since 2016. So I never know what to make of them.

I know there is one generic poll that asks the question, who would you rather vote for, a Democrat or a Republican and supposedly that one stayed pretty consistent all year long with the Democrats winning. They do a better job of explaining it in this video.

[broncofan]

Dude, I have no idea what you're trying to say. So I think its just best we end this discussion here.

That inflation, which is a worldwide problem, probably was not caused by Joe Biden nor made much worse by his inaction since monetary policy is the best tool to deal with it and it seems to be experienced in similar magnitude by most developed countries. That ending women's right to an abortion will cause so much misery for women, including death for some women seeking abortions, and trauma and loss of privacy for others, that if people thought this was the bigger concern it's not surprising at all.

Further, that some people probably consider a threat to end our tradition of conceding elections when you've lost and peacefully transferring power to be more concerning than the fact that Joe Biden hasn't been able to keep prices in check, like most of the developed world.

[broncofan]

I don't know a lot about macroeconomics either. But sometimes acknowledging a problem can be the first step in trying to solve it.

That is, if fiscal policy is a useful tool to solve the problem and there were steps he could have taken to prevent prices from increasing. Otherwise it gives the impression he can do things like manipulate gas prices when they are strongly determined by supply and demand (as well as pricing power by market participants with outsized market share), which legislation would only have small effects on. As for my point in the parenthetical, if he used regulatory agencies to influence prices of private companies all of the complaints would have come from the right.

Sometimes, this both sides sort of stuff just doesn't make sense. I'm sure Biden didn't handle it perfectly but that concession only leads to the vaguest recommendations for how he should have handled it. That is a far cry from the active harm of forcing women to give birth to their rapist's child or encouraging people to engage in violence because their "liberty" is at stake or based on incendiary claims of voter fraud that did actually lead to an attempted insurrection. These are not problems of equal significance.

[Stavros]

I have been questioning the reliability of polls since 2016. So I never know what to make of them.

I know there is one generic poll that asks the question, who would you rather vote for, a Democrat or a Republican and supposedly that one stayed pretty consistent all year long with the Democrats winning. They do a better job of explaining it in this video.

Thanks Blackchubby, I enjoyed listening to reasonable people, even if there is a warning in there about the disruption that some may want to go for and what, to me, is the dismal prospect of Joe Biden running again. If ever there was a time for change, for the new generation to take over, it is now. I say that even though in the UK we have had some of the youngest Prime Minsters and senior Ministers and they have failed, though I think we have Brexit to thank for that.

Care to nominate some potential candidates? I was surprised to hear Youngkin mentioned, but I know next to nothing about him, other than the insult he received from a graceless, and not very decent Trumpty Dumpty.

[broncofan]

Unless the increase in prices is preventing someone from being able to meet their basic economic needs it strikes me as weird that people would consider it more concerning than a ban on abortion, a possible future ban on gay marriage, public statements that not only damage our institutions but threaten the lives of people running for office by a party that also promoted rampant public health misinformation. Voting for an election denier or an antivaxxer should be about as appealing as voting for a klansman, because there's a decent chance they have many of the same views without the clothing. BTW it doesn't end there. Trump is directing racist insults toward Mcconnell's wife on a near weekly basis. This is a party of nihilists who think promoting hatred is acceptable. Anyhow, I'm sorry to anyone who's disappointed by the Democrats' surprise victory in the Senate.

Here's what Robert Reich had to say about inflation.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...high-inflation

[Stavros]

[QUOTE=broncofan;2063362 Voting for an election denier or an antivaxxer should be about as appealing as voting for a klansman, because there's a decent chance they have many of the same views without the clothing. BTW it doesn't end there. Trump is directing racist insults toward Mcconnell's wife on a near weekly basis. This is a party of nihilists who think promoting hatred is acceptable. Anyhow, I'm sorry to anyone who's disappointed by the Democrats' surprise victory in the Senate.

Here's what Robert Reich had to say about inflation.
/QUOTE]

Do you think even Republican voters are now weary of the crude, childish name calling Trump uses? Is there not a point when yesterday's 'shtick' is just that, and voters want something different, like a policy that makes sense of inflation, immigration, homelessness? After all the rage, the anger, the abuse, what have the Republicans delivered? An abortion policy the people don't want (including Republicans). Attacks on LGBTQ+ that produce nothing. Even De Santis may have to tone down his own 'shtick' if he wants votes outside the 'Darkness State' -?

Basically, this: has the tide turned?

[blackchubby38]

Thanks Blackchubby, I enjoyed listening to reasonable people, even if there is a warning in there about the disruption that some may want to go for and what, to me, is the dismal prospect of Joe Biden running again. If ever there was a time for change, for the new generation to take over, it is now. I say that even though in the UK we have had some of the youngest Prime Minsters and senior Ministers and they have failed, though I think we have Brexit to thank for that.

Care to nominate some potential candidates? I was surprised to hear Youngkin mentioned, but I know next to nothing about him, other than the insult he received from a graceless, and not very decent Trumpty Dumpty.

When it comes to the Democrats, here are some possible candidates. Whoever it is, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea if the candidate was a governor. Someone who has experience running an executive branch of government. The candidate should also be in the age range of 45-70.

Governor Gavin Newsome (CA). He is 55 and been the governor of California since 2019. From what I can tell, he is popular with the progressive wing of the party and I can see him going toe to toe with Ron De Santis or Trump because he is a little bit of a prick and I think that is what you need sometimes in politics. The only downside is, I don't see how would do in the middle of parts of the country in a general election.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (MI). If the Democrats are going to stay in the White House in 2024 and beyond, they're going to need the win the state of Michigan. She has been the governor since 2019 and she won her reelection campaign defeating a MAGA Republican. The plus side is she is a woman. The downside is, she is a white woman and I can already see some issues a rising if she has to face Kamala Harris in the primaries.

Governor Phil Murphy (NJ). He is 65 and although he narrowly won reelection last year, he seems to have rebounded and doing a good job in 68. The only downside he is not well known outside of the tri-state area (New York, NJ, and Connecticut) and the fact that he is from the east coast may cost him votes in the middle of the country. The same goes for the Governor Ned Lamont (CT), who did a great job running his state during the pandemic and the recovery process.

Those are just a few candidates I can think of.

[filghy2]

Maybe the question is, how did the polls get it wrong?

But were they so wrong? These guys don't seem to think so.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/t...-a-good-night/
I think a lot of the expectations weren't based so much on the polls, but on historical experience at mid-terms, factoring in the economy and the President's approval rating.

Opinion polls are always subject to error margins of a few per cent, and the result is a reminder that they can go in both directions.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...lection-polls/

[filghy2]

That inflation, which is a worldwide problem, probably was not caused by Joe Biden nor made much worse by his inaction since monetary policy is the best tool to deal with it and it seems to be experienced in similar magnitude by most developed countries.

The macroeconomics of inflation is straightforward. Prices rise because demand in the economy exceeds supply. In this case, it's been caused mainly by a global reduction in supply, but that can't be fixed any time soon. So the only solution is to slow the economy significantly - which is normally done by jacking up interest rates but can also be done by fiscal policy (raising taxes or cutting spending). Often this leads to a recession - that is how the last high inflation period was ended in the 1980s.

Anyone who complains about inflation but doesn't want to accept the necessary cure isn't serious. They are engaging in magical thinking.

[broncofan]

The macroeconomics of inflation is straightforward. Prices rise because demand in the economy exceeds supply. In this case, it's been caused mainly by a global reduction in supply, but that can't be fixed any time soon. So the only solution is to slow the economy significantly - which is normally done by jacking up interest rates but can also be done by fiscal policy (raising taxes or cutting spending). Often this leads to a recession - that is how the last high inflation period was ended in the 1980s.

Anyone who complains about inflation but doesn't want to accept the necessary cure isn't serious. They are engaging in magical thinking.

I'm looking at the Inflation Reduction Act and there are a few tax hikes but "increased enforcement" would probably not be enough . Looking at all the handwringing I kind of wish Biden had held a summit on the kinds of aggressive tax increases we'd need to curb inflation. I can't imagine Republicans would ever vote for increases in taxes.

Anyhow, the interest rate on 30 year fixed residential mortgages went from 3% to 7%. That will certainly keep lots of people from buying homes. Commercial rates are up well over 2%. You could get a commercial loan of 10 year term 25 year amortization for under 4% a year ago. Now it's over 6%, which is a huge difference. Our entire economy runs on credit.

In other news I heard Marjorie Taylor Greene wants to have a civil war in the Republican party. I can't understand why people don't think these are trustworthy stewards of the public interest.