The US Mid-Term Elections 2022

[Stavros]

Thanks for your post, filghy2, question for me is, does PR in its various forms enable extremists who would normally exist on the fringes of politics, a seat in the centre? In the US, the Republican Party is now so extreme I don't think anyone else on the 'Right' could challenge it, but I don't see any hope for a true part of the 'left' gaining any seats in either a State or a Federal Congress. The polarization or sectarian politics in the US cannot be broken -Republicans had the opportunity to either prevent Trump being their leader, and he knew he couldn't win anything outside the Party, but it hasn't split. The Democrats on the other hand don't need to split, as they have been a divided party since 1968 or thereabouts.

[Stavros]

Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?

Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post

[Fitzcarraldo]

Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?

Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post

Lots of people are simply voting on the price of gas, even though Republicans won't reduce it significantly no matter what BS they spew about it.

[filghy2]

Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?

Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post

They probably were too slow to recognise that inflation was a big problem, but it's not clear what they could have done that would have made much difference in time for the election.

In any case, we should wait for the results before doing post-mortems; in particular how they compare to the normal mid-term swing. So far, it doesn't look like a red wave has happened; in fact, Democrats may do better than expected.

[blackchubby38]

They probably were too slow to recognise that inflation was a big problem, but it's not clear what they could have done that would have made much difference in time for the election.

In any case, we should wait for the results before doing post-mortems; in particular how they compare to the normal mid-term swing. So far, it doesn't look like a red wave has happened; in fact, Democrats may do better than expected.

It wasn't that Biden and the Democrats were slow to recognize that inflation was a big problem, its that they refused to acknowledge that it was a problem. For the better part of year, they as a well as liberal pundits in the media tried to diminish or downplay the impact of inflation. It was only until the last month or so did the those running for office try to pivot the conversation towards the economy.

[blackchubby38]

A few takeaways from last night:

I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.

Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.

I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.

Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.

Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.

[filghy2]

Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.

I doubt that Trump is going to get that message, so that will require some of them to find the guts to finally stand up to him. It was clear after the last election that he's a liability, but most of them hoped he would just fade away without them having to do anything. Unless the party's base turns away from Trump they still have the same problem.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...ident-00066100

It will be interesting to see whether Trump goes ahead with his apparent plan to announce his candidacy soon. I think he's going to be very fixated with De Santis.

[Fitzcarraldo]

I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.

The party obviously agreed with you and gave up on Florida. They didn't invest in the Crist or Demings campaigns. DeSantis would've been easier to block from becoming president if the Democrats hadn't handed Florida to him for a second term.

[Stavros]

A few takeaways from last night:
I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.
Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.
I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.
Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.
Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.

Intriguing assessments -can you be more specific about Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams? Were they never going to win in such apparently solid Republican States? From here, Abrams comes across as a strong speaker and a brilliant organizer, but that might be the media affecting my judgment. Could she go for the big one in 2024?

It also to me seems to consolidate the anti-Federal States such as Texas that are not going to flip or fold, and with Republicans running the House, I think it maintains the trend toward State Autonomy that has emerged over the years, deepened by Trump and his impact on Republican politics. The Supreme Court will thus become a key player in the 'Rejection Front' of American politics and thus be more reliable than Trump.

In Congress, I wonder if McCarthy feels obliged to give a high profile job to 'take-no-prisoners' Marjorie Taylor Greene, who may be even more militant if she sees herself as the remaining standard-bearer for Trump -assuming she doesn't turn against him. Whatever, Americans I think will now have to spend two years watching their Representatives do nothing, as the Republicans will obstruct everything (including the Budget?) and use their power to attack through in-House procedures like Investigation, maybe even an attempt to Impeach President Biden.

Pundits on UK tv, albeit from the US (eg, David Frum) speculate that Trump will put himself forward in 2024 because he has no other reason to live, and to spite Ron DeSantis. Frum even speculated that if rejected by the party, Trump would run as an Independent and thus deliberately split the ticket. A lot depends on those people who can do so, telling Trump to give up, but they didn't dare say such things before, so will they now?

Another point from last night -Trump and Biden are the two most unpopular politicians in the country, but other than DeSantis, who else is there to run? Some argued a Democrat may yet emerge who is not well known (in the UK in particular) with scepticism about the potential of Kamala Harris. But if DeSantis is Republican candidate-elect even before the process starts it means his Democrat challenger ought also to be a younger person. Will DeSantis take the initiative and declare himself a candidate for 2024, and if so when?

As usual it seems, the Polls did not attach the importance to the youth vote and the issue of Abortion, which in some States has emerged as an important maybe even a decisive issue. Over 60% of first time young voters chose Democrats.

Lastly, is there any evidence that voter suppression, gerrymandering and rejected ballots affected the outcome? One notes the tight race in Georgia between Warnock and Walker, though it looks like Mark Finchem in Arizona has failed to be elected Secretary of State -will he claim the ballot was fraudulent and demand a recount?

-I forgot to add Frum's point that voters have begun to tire and turn away from the abusive rhetoric used by Trump and his supporters, citing the odious reaction to the attack on Paul Pelosi as the low point which he thinks people voted against. I hope this is true, as the quality of Democracy is diminished by the persistent abuse and infantile catcalling Trump and his supporters use.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

A few takeaways from last night:

I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.

Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.

I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.

Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.

Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.

I am also glad that things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania and New York as well. The Democrats really didn't really put that effort in helping Val Demings and Charlie Crist in winning their respective races,and prevent Marco Rubio from winning a third term and Ron DeSantis from winning a second term.