Thought for the Day

[Nick Danger]

My Thought For The Day is, I really enjoyed the statement Donald Trump issued regarding the Supreme Court's nod to release his tax returns. Here it is:

"This investigation is a continuation of the greatest political Witch Hunt in the history of our Country, whether it was the never ending $32 million Mueller hoax, which already investigated everything that could possible be investigation, "Russia Russia Russia," where there was a finding of "No Collusion," or two ridiculous "Crazy Nancy" inspired impeachment attempts where I was found NOT GUILTY. It just never ends!

"So now, for more than two years, New York City has been looking at almost every transaction I've ever done, including seeking tax returns which were done by among the biggest and most prestigious law and accounting firms in the U.S. The Tea Party was treated far better by the IRS than Donald Trump. The Supreme Court never should have let this "fishing expedition" happen, but they did. This is something which has never happened to a President before, it is all Democrat-inspired in a totally Democrat location, New York City and State, completely controlled and dominated by a heavily reported enemy of mine, Governor Andrew Cuomo. These are attacks by Democrats willing to do anything to stop the almost 75 million people (the most votes, by far, ever gotten by a sitting president) who voted for me in the election—an election which many people, and experts, feel that I won. I agree!"

Probably the main thing I like about Trump is that he doesn't even bother using an editor, as exampled by "...which already investigated everything that could possible be investigation."

I'd be curious what some of you Democrats think Trump's tax returns are going to show. I think they're going to show two things:

1. Trump is not as rich as he claims, but still pretty damn rich.
2. Trump is not a criminal.

Nothing more than that.

[filghy2]

"Jason Miller, said: “Trump effectively is the Republican party. The only chasm is between Beltway insiders and grass-roots Republicans around the country. When you attack President Trump, you’re attacking the Republican grass roots.”

And why do you think the Republican grass roots love him so much? It's not because orange is their favourite colour. Surely it's because Trump presents everything in terms of a fight between 'us' and 'them', which is the essence of populism?

You seem to be too focussed on one individual, rather than seeing him as a manifestation of deeper issues. If Trump dropped dead tomorrow the Republican party would not go back to normal.

[filghy2]

I'd be curious what some of you Democrats think Trump's tax returns are going to show. I think they're going to show two things:

1. Trump is not as rich as he claims, but still pretty damn rich.
2. Trump is not a criminal.

Nothing more than that.

You're telling us he went to such extraordinary lengths to keep them secret simply to boost his ego?

At a minimum I think they will show two things:
1. That he has used dubious devices to avoid paying tax. Whether this amounts to criminal fraud is yet to be determined.
2. That he has obtained financing from sources that he didn't want to be revealed.

[Nick Danger]

You're telling us he went to such extraordinary lengths to keep them secret simply to boost his ego?

At a minimum I think they will show two things:
1. That he has used dubious devices to avoid paying tax. Whether this amounts to criminal fraud is yet to be determined.
2. That he has obtained financing from sources that he didn't want to be revealed.

Do you really believe it's out of the realm of possibility that Trump is driven by pure ego. I think he is. And actually I like that about him, I believe that if it hadn't been for the unfortunate circumstance of the pandemic hitting during his presidency he'd have followed through on every single thing he promised voters, simply because "I said I was going to do this so I'm going to do it." That's the path he was on, but then disaster struck.

So yes, I honestly think that the sole reason Trump didn't want his tax returns made public is because they are going to show that he exaggerated his wealth. It's just that simple, IMHO, but we will find out soon enough.

Far as "dubious devices to avoid paying tax," no American is going to hold that against him, we all do it. Paying as little tax as possible within the bounds of the law is the American way.

[Stavros]

2. That he has obtained financing from sources that he didn't want to be revealed.

And as far as I am aware, there has been no conclusion to the allegation that the Trump campaign in 2016 had a direct link to the Alfa Bank, just as the identity of Trump's Russian girlfriend has never been revealed. The key point in all this, whether it it is Felix Sater, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn or Roger Stone, is that Trump and his campaign is on one side, 'the other' is always Russian.

Nobody is suggesting Trump or his campaigin have long-established ties to Nigeria, or Portugal, and even in the case of Israel, the Trump family ties to Netanyahu that go back years are not assumed to be merely financial even though they have interests in Israel and in the illegally-occupied Palestinian territories. But getting to the raw truth of the Russian connection is proving hard because certain people and institutions are 'protecting their assets'....

Trump and the Alfa Bank -from 2020
https://www.justsecurity.org/72262/t...ry-resurfaces/

Trump and the Alfa Bank- from 2016, an unusually detailed article for the DailyMail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sian-bank.html

Trump and his 'new woman' in 1996
https://theintercept.com/2020/09/03/...eport-mueller/

[broncofan]

So yes, I honestly think that the sole reason Trump didn't want his tax returns made public is because they are going to show that he exaggerated his wealth. It's just that simple, IMHO, but we will find out soon enough.

Far as "dubious devices to avoid paying tax," no American is going to hold that against him, we all do it. Paying as little tax as possible within the bounds of the law is the American way.

His tax returns might show that he is a poor investor but won't tell us his net worth, which would be difficult to calculate for a number of reasons anyway. He can claim huge losses because he makes large vanity investments and doesn't make great returns.

Special emphasis on within the bounds of the law. Everybody is entitled to make good faith arguments for why they should qualify for deductions or even better tax credits. They can make arguments for why they can defer recognition of some kinds of income. But the characterizations cannot be false. Yes everybody wants the maximum in deductions and the minimum in income or failing that, deferral of recognition. Do the characterizations he makes reflect economic reality?

Are they at all consistent with characterizations he makes when he applies for loans? If he consistently shows losses and is only able to service his debt by securing more debt isn't it close to a pyramid scheme? I take it he has enough equity in his properties that even if banks stop lending to him he can probably salvage a lot of value but I'm curious how he got these loans to begin with.

[broncofan]

2. That he has obtained financing from sources that he didn't want to be revealed.

This has to be the case. Banks do want to allocate a lot of money at a time if they can find a really credit-worthy businessman who carefully selects business ventures, the ventures consistently generate cash flow that is much greater than the mortgage payments and the collateral is worth much more than the loans. We know this isn't Trump.

First, a bank would be concerned about whether they can get a personal guarantee given that his businesses have declared bankruptcy. Wouldn't they want to know what that personal guarantee is worth? Wouldn't they be concerned about other lenders and the priority of creditors if Trump goes belly up? How is someone who declares enormous carry forward losses getting loans for buildings that would not be easy to sell in foreclosure and are not managed in a way that they generate good yields?

Banks make stupid decisions and banking regulation is important for this reason but there are millions of people they can lend to who provide a better risk-adjusted return.

[Stavros]

But in the 1990s no US bank would lend Trump even a dime, so where did he get the money from to open Trump SoHo if it wasn't through Felix Sater's 'connections'?

[Nick Danger]

His tax returns might show that he is a poor investor but won't tell us his net worth, which would be difficult to calculate for a number of reasons anyway. He can claim huge losses because he makes large vanity investments and doesn't make great returns.

Special emphasis on within the bounds of the law. Everybody is entitled to make good faith arguments for why they should qualify for deductions or even better tax credits. They can make arguments for why they can defer recognition of some kinds of income. But the characterizations cannot be false. Yes everybody wants the maximum in deductions and the minimum in income or failing that, deferral of recognition. Do the characterizations he makes reflect economic reality?

Are they at all consistent with characterizations he makes when he applies for loans? If he consistently shows losses and is only able to service his debt by securing more debt isn't it close to a pyramid scheme? I take it he has enough equity in his properties that even if banks stop lending to him he can probably salvage a lot of value but I'm curious how he got these loans to begin with.

I definitely remember Trump claiming a net worth of >$10 billion. It was around the time he was just threatening to throw his hat in the ring and making claims of being a genius and so forth, I mean he's always been a braggart. So that's been out there, for years, that $10 billion figure, and no one really talks about it. A lot of people questioned it but then all of a sudden he was running for president and talking about building a wall on the Mexican border and it was kinda forgotten.

I don't recall his net worth being brought up by him or the media at any point during his presidency, though I'm not a news freak or anything so I could have missed something. But as far as I know, the guy claims to be worth $10 billion, and as far as Trump's concerned, he made everyone believe he was worth $10 billion and that's the end of that.

Now, obviously, we're going to find out if he was telling the truth or not. Enough people are far enough up Trump's ass right now that, armed with his tax returns, they will have all the data necessary to put a precise figure on Trump's net worth.

My opinion is that Trump isn't stupid enough to do anything outright illegal. The guy is so cocky and so public that he's essentially had a target painted on his forehead his entire adult life. I think he's been very, very careful not to give anyone a legitimate reason to take him down, because if they could have, they would have. If my opinion is correct, there's only one reason I can think of that he wouldn't want those tax returns made public.

[filghy2]

My opinion is that Trump isn't stupid enough to do anything outright illegal. The guy is so cocky and so public that he's essentially had a target painted on his forehead his entire adult life. I think he's been very, very careful not to give anyone a legitimate reason to take him down, because if they could have, they would have. If my opinion is correct, there's only one reason I can think of that he wouldn't want those tax returns made public.

That doesn't seem consistent with what you said previously.

Well how 'bout this, Giovanni - I'm much more critical of Donald Trump than you'll ever be. I've been following his antics for decades, I know he's a near-pathological liar, a cheat, an egomaniac, a bully, and an insatiable pussy-hound. He's impulsive, it's an absolute miracle he hasn't been charged with a crime in his lifetime. And he's absolutely sociopathic when it comes to business, he once cheated a great uncle of mine out of tens of thousands of dollars on a plumbing contract - my uncle just couldn't afford to fight him in court, and my uncle was rich af. Trump is also mobbed up, you can't be in Manhattan real estate and not get a little mafia on you; also, to be totally forthcoming, if he did business with my great uncle, he's fucking mobbed up.

We are talking about a man who stupid enough to think that Mike Pence could overturn the election result for him.