U.S Presidential Election 2016 Not Otherwise Specified

[blackchubby38]

This election is starting to remind me of this year's NBA finals or the World Series. Where one team was up 3-1 in the series and momentum slowly started to shift to the other team as they won the next two games. Before you know it, its game 7 and Lebron James is holding up the O'Brien trophy.

[hippifried]

I really hope you're not comparing Trump to LeBron.

[blackchubby38]

I really hope you're not comparing Trump to LeBron.

Hey I know its an insult to Lebron James. But the analogy is kind of fitting.

The way things are looking, I could probably switch Lebron for a member of the Chicago Cubs.

[broncofan]

I do feel a momentum shift, but I still think Trump will fall short. I'm not sure if it's just wishful thinking or that I think Trump has had a ceiling in this election, just 2-3% behind Hillary in the popular vote. Of course, he can win the election without the popular vote but he needs a lot of swing states. Florida will be a big one. I think Hillary has it, but not by a lot.

[Stavros]

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia on the BBC the other night pointed out that one percentage point does not make that much difference when overall Hillary Clinton is estimated to have around 70% of the vote based firmly in the large states. He discounts the importance of North Carolina (where today we have heard Black voters are being removed from the register and given no reason for being denied the vote), preferring to consider Florida the key state where the Trump vote is weak in some areas. He also argued that while the Democrats have a well-oiled machine across the USA on the ground, Trump has next to nothing and is dependent on tv, to the extent that he stated that because neither candidate can claim popularity, if Hillary Clinton is headline news, her poll ratings go down, if Trump becomes headline news, his ratings go down.
If the Democrats can find something on Trump -particularly any links to Russia- or Trump does a Trump and insults or abuses a fellow American, and if it happens later this week, the pendulum will swing again, but from where we are something sensational must happen for Trump to win this election.

[broncofan]

. He discounts the importance of North Carolina (where today we have heard Black voters are being removed from the register and given no reason for being denied the vote), preferring to consider Florida the key state where the Trump vote is weak in some areas.

Right now there are a bunch of states within the margin of error. But looking at the map and assuming they each get the majority of the states where they have current leads, Florida becomes crucial. If Hillary wins Florida, it is mathematically very tough for Trump to win. He would need to win every swing state where he has a current lead, plus several states where Hillary has a lead depending on the electoral vote of those states (Michigan, Pennsylvania etc). In most scenarios, he would need to win three states that are very likely to go to Hillary, plus carry every state that he has a current lead in.

Nate Silver has been a bit shoddy in predicting European elections with his poll aggregator but his method seems to have been pretty reliable in the U.S. in both presidential and congressional races. This is what he has so far...a somewhat close race with a clear edge to Hillary. Here are the electoral totals to play around with...but he has Florida close.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo


Here are the electoral totals.

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...S_DBYQ9QEIHzAA

[broncofan]

But I want to re-emphasize that Florida is much more crucial to Trump than Hillary. She has many ways to win without Florida....if Trump loses Florida, his chances are slim.

The most useful graphic in the 538 link is the "winding road to 270" (slightly below middle of the page). He has every state color coded for who has a current lead, with the ones within margin of error a lighter shade. Very useful to then add or subtract from that graphic.

[bluesoul]

i agree with broncofan; if hillary won florida it would be near impossible for trump to win, but i think he'll win florida at this rate. the thing is, she HAS TO win pennsylvania and possibly colorado (not sure about the last one)- and maybe ohio?

whatever the case, i don't think clinton would survive another wikileaks scandal.

btw: i was keeping a tally of how many times gary johnson got embarrassed during his campaign, and i can't figure what was more embarrassing. him loosing his cool during an interview (again) or bill weld basically leaving him hanging and endorsing clinton

[broncofan]

i agree with broncofan; if hillary won florida it would be near impossible for trump to win, but i think he'll win florida at this rate. the thing is, she HAS TO win pennsylvania and possibly colorado (not sure about the last one)- and maybe ohio?

The problem is there are so many ways to reconfigure this. If he wins Florida, and every state goes to whoever has a current lead, Hillary would win slightly, taking Pennsylvania and Colorado but not Ohio. If she loses Colorado, North Carolina which is currently polling Red would more than make up the deficit if it swung her way (his average lead there is smaller than Hillary's lead in Colorado). Pennsylvania on the other hand is tougher for her to lose because it has 20 votes, but Ohio's 18 would probably be enough to get her to 270 if they swapped.

Have you seen the one with Gary Johnson holding his tongue? Gary Johnson videos have kept this campaign fun.

[bluesoul]

Have you seen the one with Gary Johnson holding his tongue? Gary Johnson videos have kept this campaign fun.

of course man. that was one of my favorite- but him describing conquering mt everest definitely takes the cake.