The General Election in the UK, 2024

The assumption that there will be a General Election in the UK (it is technically possible it could be delayed to January 2025), prompts this post.

I am so far not interested in opinion polls, which predict a collapse of the Conservative Party vote and the seats it gets in the House of Commons, as a lot can, and will happen between now and then.

Rather, first off is more of an introduction with a link to the Boundary Changes that have been made. The House of Commons will continue to have 650 seats, as proposals to reduce it to 600 were abandoned, but some Constituencies will change, and for those interested the link tells you which ones.

For the sake of Comparison, the US House of Representatives has 435 seats representing a district with approx. 761,179 people, not all of whom vote. The House of Commons has 650 seats which on average represent 75,000 people.

Another key difference is that polling stations in most UK constituencies (this may differ in remote areas) are spread out so that no voter should be more than a 10 minute walk away from a ballot box, and I don't believe there have ever been long queues of voters waiting for more than an hour as happens in the US. I wonder how many American voters have now chosen to vote by mail rather than spend such a long time waiting in line, and I don't know if this is common throughout the US or just in some states.

Anyway I hope this is a start

When will the next UK general election be? | Institute for Government

2023 boundary changes | Institute for Government

63 so far but there could be more this year
MPs standing down at the next general election | Institute for Government

You know you are at the fag end of a Government when the MPs of the ruling party are mired in scandal, like the MP -Mark Menzies-
"According to the Times, Menzies phoned his former campaign manager, now a party volunteer, at 3.15am one night in December saying he had been locked in a flat by “some bad people” and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”."
Tory MP loses whip after claims he used party funds to pay ‘bad people’ | Conservatives | The Guardian

Then there was the Govt Minister - Chris Philp- he other night on TV defending his Govt's policy to send asylum seekers to Rwanda
"An audience member from the Democratic Republic of the Congo asked about the government's new law on deporting some asylum seekers to Rwanda. Responding, policing minister Mr Philp appeared to ask if Rwanda and Congo were different countries."
Did Chris Philp confuse Rwanda and Congo on Question Time? - BBC News

Below is a time chart that shows the dates in 2024 when Parliament can be dissolved so that a General Election can take place. It means if there is an election in July this year there are two weeks at the end of May and early June when the dissolution should take place.

from

General election timetables 2024 - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

When could polling day be?
The table below sets out the dissolution date and the corresponding polling day for each Thursday until the last possible polling day for the next general election. Earlier polling dates not on a Thursday can be found in the Excel worksheet, All possible polling dates.
http://researchbriefings.files.parli...3d84df306c.png

I think this government are Klingons so it will be as late as they can possibly bear

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Originally Posted by rodinuk

I think this government are Klingons so it will be as late as they can possibly bear

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If you are in need of some light laughter this Monday morning, ponder the backroom efforts of a few -and I think it is a few- 'radicals' who want to replace Sunak with Penny (The Diver) Mordaunt before the election, in order to win it. One Tory rebel who nevertheless thinks it is madness was quoted saying

""The reality is that we are facing an extinction-level event. "It is for colleagues to decide if they want to go down with the sinking ship."".
Tory rebels planning to oust Sunak and make Mordaunt PM as part of 100-day masterplan to... - LBC

If that is how the rebels see it, consider this from Conservative Home -first a few quotes from Penny herself, imagining the 'Nightmare Before Christmas' that could have been a Labour Govt led by Ed Miliband-

"The conservative 2015 intake never was. Oliver Dowden has simply moved from behind the scenes at Number 10 to behind the scenes at CCHQ. Boris Johnson never returned to parliament – instead running for a third term as London mayor; as a result, water cannons are now an integral part of the Metropolitan Police’s arsenal.
Michael Gove, shaken by his shock defeat, has left politics and the media altogether and can be found running ‘Level Up’, not a think tank, but a nightclub in Camberley."
Penny Mordaunt: A Christmas vision of the horrors of Labour past - and what might have been had Miliband won... | Conservative Home

(Has Penny ever been to Camberley? Maybe she has. Hence the Whist Drive).

Any wonder that a review of her book (co-authored with an ally) has the headline

If her book is anything to go by, Mordaunt would be a disaster as leader

And has this nugget of comparative sociology

"“In America, there are 62,000 bars and 384,000 churches. It’s a ratio of more than six to one in favour of churches. In Britain, there are 47,000 pubs and 16,000 churches. It’s a ratio of almost three to one in favour of pubs. If that’s not a source of national pride, nothing is.”".

Lots more where this came from. Oh, and by the way, Penny may well lose her seat at the next election. So she might go for No 10 while she can, and use her tenure as 'former Prime Minister' to follow Boris and Liz on the US Lecture tour....or maybe just hit the bars in lower Manhattan...

If her book is anything to go by, Mordaunt would be a disaster as leader | Conservative Home

The Tories need to lose.
they've lost their way.
It's not just on Sunak. he's done the best he could in a difficult situation. Getting rid of him doesn't change anything. they would and should still lose BADLY.

Sir Keir Starmer isn't all that. he's bland, uninteresting and without any life or key ideas. He'll most likely be PM for a decade at least, until the Tories get themselves back together to return to government.

It's virtually an open secret in Westminster.

Unless something very dramatic intervenes, it's October.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by obslam

It's virtually an open secret in Westminster.

Unless something very dramatic intervenes, it's October.

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November 14 or 21 says the channel I watch regularly. People are dreading it over there aren't they. I spend a few summer months looking after my aunts apartment. If you believe the polls, we're all in for a right fucking kicking ! Hide your money are fucking emigrate!

The General Election will take place on the 4th of July 2024

General election latest: Rishi Sunak announces 4 July vote in Downing Street statement - BBC News

Friday 24 May – Parliament prorogued
Thursday 30 May – Parliament dissolved
Thursday 4 July – General election
Tuesday 9 July – New parliament meets for election of speaker and swearing-in of MPs
Wednesday 17 July – State opening of parliament, with King’s speech
SUMMER RECESS STARTS 24 JULY

Sunak looked like a drowning rat in the rain

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Originally Posted by rodinuk

Sunak looked like a drowning rat in the rain

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A washout in every sense. Was there no expert on hand to advise his boss to stay inside? All that money they spent on a No 10 Press Centre, rather like all those Brexit projects that cost hundreds of millions of pounds that have never been used.

"I think the timing of this general election has quite a lot to do with me"...

yes, comrades. the truculent, no-nonsense interrogator of politicians far and wide; the bruiser; the scorcher; the he-who-cannot-be-tamed scourge of socialism; flag bearer of Brexit freedom from the chaos and dictatorship of Brussels; the honorary because honourable President of Reform UK; the one, because there can only be one, Nigel Farage.

And no, he is not going to stand as an MP. With a salary at GB News to match the salary (and expenses and perks) he once received from the European Parliament, would you?

The insinuation behind this comment is that Labour is soft on Muslims, only the hard core who voted for a rank idiot like George Galloway may have made a gesture, but have achieved absolutely nothing; and those who continue to vote against Labour are unlikely to make a difference outside of a few constituencies, if that.

But if there is a hard core of Muslims who 'don't share our values' -the same person singling out Muslims, could have referred to the White English people who also don't 'share our values' -the ones who would prefer dictatorship to democracy, who don't want the rule of law in its present form, who despise Jews as much as Muslims, who want a 'Fortress Britain' rather than a democracy open to global trade.

Tired old drivel not based on facts, the sign of a desperate party about to be shunted onto a disused railway line.

"Some British Muslims “want to challenge” fundamental British values, a Foreign Office minister has said.Anne-Marie Trevelyan said the “vast proportion” of British Muslims were “peace-loving, community-minded people”.
But there was a “very small proportion” that wanted to challenge the “values that we hold dear in the UK”, she added."
Government minister says some British Muslims do not support UK values (yahoo.com)

Labour is finding it hard to deal with Dianne Abbott, but she isn't making it easy for Keir Starmer either. Abbott was the first Black woman to be elected an MP, and ever since 1987 has been the target of sickening abuse. At the time, Abbott was one of three Black MPs, all Labour, the others being Paul Boateng, and Bernie Grant. Such was the vile abuse that they were subjected to, that -I was living in London at the time- I once saw graffiti on a stairwell in the Underground that read 'Who will kill Bernie Grant?'. Grant died of a heart attack in 2000 aged 58.

My view, which isn't worth much, is that at the age of 70 and not being in the best of health, Abbott should retire. She has some sort of legacy to look back on, though some will argue that in policy terms she achieved little, being on the Labour left that lost out to Blair and 'New Labour' in the 1990s. It was a low moment when she led the chants of 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' at a Labour Party conference -she used to live with him- the point being that the left when I was in the Party were supposed to be against 'Personality Cults'.

I don't think it will change the result, and it doesn't look good, but I wonder if this minor issue has resonated with those sad people who never wanted Dianne Abbott in public life at any level -because they haven't gone away, and never left, and are always dreaming of their moment coming back, now that Brexit is 'done with' -and not it seems, something anyone wants to discuss in detail in this election.

If you want to know why Richard Tice has been replaced by Nigel Farage as leader of Reform UK-

"Richard Tice has said “How do we turn on the rocket boosters” in this campaign. “We can go from fifth gear, through to sixth gear – this is a fossil-fueled car by the way – to seventh gear. But what about eighth gear?”"
Nigel Farage to stand in Clacton at general election after taking over as leader of Reform party – UK politics live | Politics | The Guardian

Farage said last week he would be campaigning in the US for Mr Trump. The reaction was so bad, he has had a vision, if not when travelling to Damascus, but Clacton-on-Sea, though the press conference announcing his attempt to save Britain from Economic, Social and Moral Decline was held in London, not by the seaside. He has also calculated that this time, disaffection with the Conservatives is so strong, he might actually win the seat, and it is possible he might this time.

He has what he has always wanted -a headline slot on the political equivalent of Britain's Got Talent. Let's just hope he doesn't try to swap his magic act for singing Nessun Dorma.

More on this: Reform UK is a private company that has registered as a political party -usually it is the other way round, enabling political parties to sell merchandise, etc.

Who is behind Reform UK other than Tice and Farage? This link tells you -watch out for 'Chakrit Sakunkrit', the Thai citizen...then there is Turning Point UK (hmmm isn't there is Turning Point USA?). The sums might not be at the same level as the billionaires bankrolling Trump (for their purposes, not his) but the same sort of Businessmen who think Climate Change is a hoax, and are appalled by 'wokery' and so on. Read on
Reform UK Limited: The Political Business Brought to You by Billionaires – Byline Times

The Economist, in spite of its irrelevance to most things), is not impressed
Britain’s Reform UK party does not exist (archive.is)

However, in both cases, they maybe underestimate the potential for Reform UK to win seats in the House of Commons. Farage has looked at the scene, and as he said yesterday, thinks the Conservative Party has ceased to exist, and is now just four factions fighting among themselves. He might say the Republican Party no longer exists, being a quasi-religious cult for Donald Trump.

Because he sees a fatal weakness on this side of the political aisle, Farage smells blood, and like a Jackal or African Painted Dog who waits for the lion or the leopard to kill prey before stealing the carcass, he thinks he can not only defeat Conservatives in their seats, but place Reform UK as the primary 'Conservative' opposition to a Labour Govt.

If he is, then the Commons would give him a platform for his crypto-Fascist enterprise, because he sees himself as part of a European movement that contains Orba, Meloni, Wilders (though he can't yet form a Govt) soft on Putin and Trump -though one notes this trend has not taken off in Spain, and has had a setback in Poland.

Farage, like Boris Johnson, is a liar who dares you to find the truth, as has been done in this link
Reality check: how do Farage’s claims on immigration, economy and crime hold up? | Nigel Farage | The Guardian

It only scratches the surface, as Farage was in full throttle nonsense during the Brexit campaign when on Tv he claimed there would be no damage to trade because the EU needed the UK market, citing German car exports to the UK when exports to China were more than 20 times greater.

Ah well, we wait and see. Reform UK hasn't got 650 candidates, but we should not underestimate the appeal it has to a certain kind of voter. Farage might also/should also exploit the as yet not widely discussed plans a Labour Govt has to re-insert the UK into the Single Market, but that raises the question -can Farage win votes on Brexit if the majority of people think it was a mistake?

Still, it has thrown a spanner into the works and it is the Conservatives who are worried the most.

Some folks just never learn

How not to offer the public a clear view of what the parties want: get seven representatives to talk over each other in a 'debate'. What debate? Questions and answers that achieve little, other than to confirm existing positions: the Tories are not just losing, but know they are losing. Rishi Sunak as a leader is now competing with Liz Truss to see who can be more useless than the other.

Labour has a 'clear' plan which seems to mean Starmer saying one thing, Angela Rayner another. The only reason why the Nuclear Bomb has suddenly become an issue, is down to Putin making the usual gnomic threats from his Russian bunker, a gift for the Mail and the Telegraph who have been telling us for the last 45 years you cant trust Labour on defence. PS, a Labour Govt created Britain's Bomb -true or false?

The Greens are convinced they are in the ascendancy which means one, maybe two more seats in the Commons (we're on a roll!, plant based, of course), just as the Liberal Democrats are, well, Liberal Democrats, though they may do better than some think this time around, and their key policy, 1p on income tax for the NHS, is popular. The SNP is truly only interested in Scotland, ditto Plaid Cymru in Wales.

As for Nigel Farage, the usual megaphone of doom and crypto-racism. Yes, stop and search is the way to stop knife crime, only it must be 'colour blinid', like he's never had words with a London copper. Ask Leroy.

As for immigration, the banner headline in the Telegraph (these days a Brexit not a Tory paper) blares: "Farage Warns 'population crisis' is making Britain poorer" -with the usual stuff that doesn't join dots. Like fit and healthy young men who apparently are a drain on the NHS, that's the NHS they never use. You could see people as an opportunity not a crisis, but I guess that depends on whether or not they and we are colour blind and 'share our values'. There was a time when to be a Roman Catholic in this country was a sentence of imprisonment, possibly torture and death- gosh, haven't we done well since Gloriana?

Oh and Brexit -hasn't this made the UK poorer? Don't ask, don't tell.

In other words, they are long on rhetoric, short on solutions, as they say 'costed'.

GB Energy- Labour's way of repeating history, possibly the second time as farce, if not tragedy. In 1974 Tony Benn wanted the UK to own all its oil and gas, and insisted on the creation of the British National Oil Company, something Wilson let him do even though he retained the contractual arrangement with the independent oil companies that settled on a 51/49% deal. Benn was livid, but powerless to do anything about it (it was one of the causes of his own increasingly radical politics), and in any case Thatcher scrapped BNOC which achieved nothing anyway, unless you think employing thousands of people on quite nice salaries is not an achievement. And unless I am mistaken, the funding for GB Energy, is going to come from, yes you guessed it, North Sea oil and gas. At least one realist has his finger on the tap: BP's former boss, Lord Browne, wants that investment in alternatives to replace fossil fuels, implicitly supporting Starmer's 'vision'. It may even work. Or not.
Former BP chief executive backs end to new North Sea licences (energyvoice.com)

Speculation: rather than a party promising a and b and delivering neither, or a- or b-, maybe the less clear things are now, the better the outcomes in 5 years time?

Farage in todays' Telegraph -why have the Conservatives found themselves heading into oblivion?

"If a party is elected for its conservative credentials, but governs from the social democratic Left, it should come as little surprise when once loyal supporters desert in their droves."

Social Democratic left?

It was Cameron's fault

"Fourteen years of David Cameron’s social democratic policies – remember how he styled himself “the heir to Blair” – have led the party into the electoral abyss"

-even though Cameron left Downing St in 2016. Yes, Farage gave Boris a chance, even withdrew Brexit Party candidates in the 2019 election but we woz betrayed!

"Since that time, immigration into the United Kingdom has rocketed to record levels. It’s truly astonishing. Since 2022, arrivals have run at one migrant every minute. This is a betrayal of the trust placed in the Conservative party by common sense Britons, and millions of voters now feel this very deeply and personally. There is no going back now."
Mark my words: Reform will be the next opposition, then government awaits (yahoo.com)

Vote Farage, get Trump? Note to historians: Mr Farage does not wear a wig.

Farage again,
"Nigel Farage was left squirming this morning over his claim that Rishi Sunak “doesn’t understand our history and our culture”.The Reform UK leader made the comment after the prime minister left the D-Day commemoration early.2
Nigel Farage On The Rack Over Claim Rishi Sunak 'Doesn't Understand Our Culture' (yahoo.com)

No further comment needed, other than is anyone surprised?

There has been the usual sloganeering in this election -the key one is that 'Labour will raise your taxes'. Rachel Reeves, who looks like becoming the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer in British history, denies it, of course.

The problem Labour will have is finding the money needed to repair what has been damaged, and fund new policies. If, as the data suggests, daily trade on the City of London Stock Exchange is worth c$3.8 trillion, why not levy a 1% tax on those daily trades, as on the basis of the paper figure, the City and its customers can afford it?

The problem is that while the City and related financial services provide His Majesty's Treasury with 10% of its annual tax revenue, the City of London/Stock Exchange is to some people in a crisis.

Firms are leaving, de-listing from London, registering in New York. The American market has fewer regulations than London, is more receptive to new ventures, and adds value where some think they lose out in London, which is why firms have left, and the oil major, Royal Dutch Shell, is also thinking of moving. Is this a form of Capital Flight? If it continues, the new Labour Govt may find that it has less resources to use in funding its re-generation of the NHS, a house building programme, the new energy firm it proposes, and much more.

It may have to put up income tax, or VAT, or some related tax to make up for the money lost through Brexit, low productivity and the general lack of excitement that the UK is to investors at home and abroad, football clubs excepted.

Some sources to look at-

Why is the London Stock Exchange failing? | News | Warwick Business School (wbs.ac.uk)

A more relaxed view here
Big firms quitting UK 'not a crisis' says stock market boss - BBC News

London fears for its future as companies defect to Wall Street | CNN Business

Opinion: Why is the London Stock Exchange losing out to the US – and can it stem the flow? | UCL News - UCL – University College London

Some -well, 4- Conservative candidates in the election are accepting campaign donations from a rival part, Reclaim, and thus adopting that lunatic fringe party's 'Four Commitments to Culture'-

"These consist of: leaving the European Court of Human Rights, repealing the Human Rights Act, banning all forms of gender reassignment [for children]and reforming the Equality Act."
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/reclaim-pl...211659305.html

If some Conservative candidates are willing to take money and policies from another party, those in or fomerly in Rishi Sunak's Cabinet, are threatening to produce a 'rival manifesto' of their own if the official one doesn't meet their expectations-

"Prominent party figures including Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick are said by Tory insiders to be among those waiting to see how the manifesto is received by the public before they act.
In the event Sunak’s launch fails to shift the dial on the Tories’ floundering election campaign, one option under discussion is a press conference next week to set out a series of alternative pledges."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sto-falls-flat

Divided in Defeat. How sad.

Nigel Farage is on a mission. In today's Telegraph he declares "I plan to run for PM in 2029", as if we held Presidential elections in this country. Farage is a Trump wannabe, for in much the same way that Trump realized in 2000 he would get nowhere as an Independent candidate, and hi-jacked the Republican Party to gain entry to the top level of power -for his own benefit, nobody else's- so Farage has invented political parties to suit his ambition, which now appears to be to morph Reform UK with what he sees as a walking corpse known as The Conservative Party. (Telegraph article is behind a paywall).

He has also viciously attacked Lord David Cameron who has openly objected to Farage. Ignoring completely that it was David Cameron who, as Prime Minister steered the EU Referendum Bill through to law in the House of Commons in 2015 -though I am sure he will take credit for that too, even though he has never sat in Parliament- Farage now claims-

"Cameron has the nerve to claim that, after 14 years of failure, the Tories now have a plan to deal with Britain’s immigration crisis."

This is because for Farage, immigration is the key that will unlock the prison into which Britain has consigned itself. Brexit does make an appearance, as usual, for being shunted offside-

"Cameron called that referendum in the smug belief that the Project Fear run by him and his chancellor, George Osborne, would hoodwink the British electorate into voting to Remain in thrall to the EU. When instead 17.4m voted Leave – lest we forget, the biggest vote for anything in British history – he flounced off and left Theresa May and the Remainer-dominated parliament to try to sell out Brexit."

That Brexit has cost the country £40 billion, lost opportunities for investment, a decline in trade with the EU and a mountain of regulation strangling business -none of this matters for the man forever chasing headlines.

Farage is also a liar. He lied about the benefits of Brexit during the referendum campaign, and here is another lie

"Keir Starmer’s Labour is set to win on July 4th, despite the lack of public enthusiasm for his party, his personality or his six big election pledges – which do not include a word about migration." One of the pledges is to 'Launch a new border security command', but I guess this is not enough for Nigel.
David Cameron is a disgrace to Britain (yahoo.com)

In his book, How They Broke Britain, James O'Brien has a chapter on David Cameron, and another on Nigel Farage. Two privately educated boys. one with the links to the Royal Family that O'Brien suggests was crucial in developing Cameron's career; the other since boyhood a nauseating racist whose views would not only sound like the vile propaganda of the British Brothers League of the early 20thc, in some cases is almost the same -just as one claim was that you could walk from Aldgate to Bethnal Green in London and the only languages you would hear were Russian, Polish and Yiddish, thus

"Nigel Farage has said he felt "awkward" on a recent train journey in central London when he heard only foreign languages spoken by his fellow passengers."
Farage 'felt awkward' on train | London Evening Standard | Evening Standard

Ukip is nothing new: the British Brothers’ League was exploiting immigration fears in 1901 | Immigration and asylum | The Guardian

British Brothers’ League | rebel notes (wordpress.com)


If Farage has a dark past, littered with loose connections to a generation of English racists, he also failed to make a career when he was inside the Conservative Party, going through the endless rounds of meetings and deals, so he just took over UKIP, made it his own vehicle and ran it like a private club, rather like Reform UK, which after all, remains a private company in which he is the largest shareholder.
How They Broke Britain: Amazon.co.uk: O'Brien, James: 9780753560341: Books

At root of the man's arrogance, is his conviction that he will be elected MP for Clacton. If he fails, will he claim the election was stolen? Even if he does, he doesn't have the armed terrorists ready to storm the Houses of Parliament, though I guess they could always storm Clacton Pier, to what purposes nobody knows.

Candidates for Reform UK have a sophisticated way of explaining things, such as the introduction of Socionics to explain why Hitler was 'Brilliant'. Socionics is a jargon-laden theory derived in part from Jungian psychology/personality types which has been heavily criticised for its lack of empirical research. The same candidate who said Hitler was 'brilliant' -while also condemning his historical record- claims Bashar al-Asad is a 'gentle by nature', but let down for being weak. As an introduction to traits such as FE + NI Socionics has a long way to go before becoming the go-to explanation for mass murder, mass destruction, and thus at some point mass failure, though it is relatively easy to pluck Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar from history to show how the strong survive and the weak fail.

Reform has a problem because another candidate, now legally registered as their boy in Bexhill and Battle (in Sussex) has said that Britain should have been neutral in the Second World War.
Reform UK candidate defends Hitler remarks (msn.com)

As for Socionics, this site has some probably typical personality analyses, but this one on, yep, you guessed it, Adolf Hitler, has the astonishing claim that "It is difficult to pin down Hitler's true ideology precisely, not only because he lied shamelessly about everything, but possibly because he himself wasn't fully sure"- whereas history records an obsession with Race as a scientific explanation for the extermination of the Jews, Slavs and others who just did not match up the Aryan standards. He was so sure of it he ranted on about it from the start to the finish of his lamentable career. The gallery of people on the website don't all seem to have their own entry/analysis, which is a relief. Try it here-

World Socionics: Adolf Hitler (EIE): Personality Type Analysis

Socionics - Wikipedia

As for the Reform UK launch yesterday, they were keen to call their proposals a Contract, not a Manifesto. Now where have we heard that before....Contract with America? It's not as if Nigel Farage has ever had an original thought. One wonders if his entire political programme has been scripted for him by Turning Point USA- ?

Two weeks to go before we find out what we find out if BS + Pr =ES. My new science: voternomics.

Seeing 7 representatives from the parties standing in front of an audience, repeating rehearsed sound bites to no effect, makes me think of Donkeys and Elephants. This is a pity because Donkeys are both useful and lovable animals. The Elephants in this case are two policy areas that seem to defy solution -Social Care, and Prisons.

Successive Govts have resisted merging Social Care with the NHS -being separate from it means that social care is not free at the time of need, and if it were, the UK health and social care network would be in an even worse state than it is now. As happens when a service is underfunded, and subject to market forces, in this case the shrinkage of labour post-Brexit, the costs for those who remain -residents and staff- solving the problem becomes harder and without doubt more expensive.

These two articles outline the problem.

Nine major challenges facing health and care in England - The Health Foundation
The British public are clear-eyed about the problems in social care | Nuffield Trust

The other policy knot is Prisons. An obvious solution to the fact that the UK imprisons more people than most of Europe (because we tend to model policy on what they do in the US rather than Sweden or the Netherlands), would be not to send people to prison in the first place. If a crime is not violent, suggesting the person responsible has a tendency to be so, is prison the right form of punishment? It might favour white collar crime if those convicted of embezzlement, say, were not sent to prison, but it costs a lot of money to do so, and alternatives are available that are a form of punishment.

This article looks at it-
The State of the UK Prison System: Urgent Need for Reform (govnet.co.uk)

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have a coherent plan for either, but lots of soundbites. It comes down to money and will -is the new Govt willing to devise a workable policy that is properly funded that will produce positive change over the next 5 years? Trillions of pounds flow through the UK each year, we can have some of it if Govt wants it, just as Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling found 3 trillion to save the banking sector in 2008; just as after Brexit, the May/Johnson Govt spend millions and millions on port facilities that have never been used, and during the Covid crisis, Chancellor Sunak handed out around 4 billion quid to firms for emergency services that turned out to be ghosts, disappearing into the ether with taxpayers cash lining their sheets.

Dare we hope for some good governance from the next party to have a go at it?

That sounds a lot like Australian politics. I believe that UK Labour has been very influenced by the small target strategy that saw the Australian Labor Party return to power in 2022. Both Labour parties are evidently terrified of scare campaigns about increasing taxes or being weak on crime or national/border security (or reversing Brexit in the UK).

The problem is that even if this approach helps them to win office it also limits what they can do once they are in power. At best, they can only make some modest improvements. But once they have been in government for a while, they will in turn receive blame for all of the problems that voters are dissatisfied about.

To be fair, a good deal of this is the fault of voters who too often behave like children who demand that problems be solved but don't want to bear any cost for doing so.

The other problem for the ALP here is that their caution has resulted in a steady leakage of votes to the Greens and independents who are seen as having more principled positions. The ALP won the last election through preferences, but with a historically-low primary vote of less than 33%. Perhaps that's not such an issue in the UK because the FPP system favours larger parties.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

That sounds a lot like Australian politics. I believe that UK Labour has been very influenced by the small target strategy that saw the Australian Labor Party return to power in 2022. Both Labour parties are evidently terrified of scare campaigns about increasing taxes or being weak on crime or national/border security (or reversing Brexit in the UK).

The problem is that even if this approach helps them to win office it also limits what they can do once they are in power. At best, they can only make some modest improvements. But once they have been in government for a while, they will in turn receive blame for all of the problems that voters are dissatisfied about.

To be fair, a good deal of this is the fault of voters who too often behave like children who demand that problems be solved but don't want to bear any cost for doing so.

The other problem for the ALP here is that their caution has resulted in a steady leakage of votes to the Greens and independents who are seen as having more principled positions. The ALP won the last election through preferences, but with a historically-low primary vote of less than 33%. Perhaps that's not such an issue in the UK because the FPP system favours larger parties.

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You probably know this but I will quote it anyway

"According to a former member of Blair's staff, Blair and the Labour Party learnt from and owes a debt to Bob Hawke's government in Australia in the 1980s on how to govern as a Third Way party."
Third Way - Wikipedia

I think Starmer is closer to Blair than he is to either Clement Attlee, or Keir Hardie, after whom I believe he was named, though I can't verify that. Labour is basically terrified of alienating Nationalist working class voters whose views on immigrants are, shall we say, toxic. But also running scared of the City of London and 'capital flight', which thus fits in with the 'Third Way' argument that without Capitalism there would be no money, which is ironic given that the ultimate dream of Socialism is a society without it. Thus 'Social Democracy' and Capitalism are locked in a relationship they can't get out of. One of them needs the money which the other admits funds the social policies markets don't want.

Somewhere in this knot, there might even be something which political 'scientists' (= lecturers) used to call Good Governance, something that seems to have withered and died but since when I am not sure.

I thought the ineptitude of the Conservatives in the 2017 election was a one-off, whereas this election is turning into the 'mother of all shambles'. Quite astonishing, but indicates a party in a state of disintegration.

"Hundreds of campaign leaflets for Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden have been sent to the wrong constituency, the BBC has been told.It is understood the literature ended up at homes in a neighbouring Essex seat.".
Tory chair Richard Holden's leaflets sent to wrong constituency - BBC News

"The Metropolitan police has announced that five more officers are being investigated in relation to suspect bets on the date of the election, in addition to the protection officer who was arrested...The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit."

"The Association of Electoral Administrators has confirmed that there is nothing that can be done to stop Craig Williams or Laura Saunders being listed as Conservative candidates on the ballot paper, even though the party no longer supports them"

And then-
"Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, was not impressed by Labour’s Nick Thomas-Symonds saying this morning that when the party “opens the books” if it gets into government, it may find the economic situation worse than expected...Oh dear, oh dear. The old "we may open the books and discover the situation is even worse..."The books are wide open, fully transparent. That really won't wash..."

"A Reform UK candidate in Salisbury was booed at a hustings after he praised Vladimir Putin, the Wiltshire Times reports.
Arguing for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, Julian Malins said it was wrong to compare Putin to Hitler. “I have actually met Putin and had a 10-minute chat with him and he seemed very good. He is not the Austrian gentleman with a moustache come alive again,” Malins said."

"Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, has accused Labour of planning “to eradicate women from our national language” as the Conservatives sought to ramp up attacks on Keir Starmer around gender identity issues."

All in this link, if you can summon up the interest-

UK general election live: five more police officers alleged to have placed bets on election date as Tories drop two candidates (theguardian.com)

Is Nigel Farage 'merely' being a Realist? Or is he suggesting that it is tough shit when a State violates a raft of international laws but hey, if Israel can get away with it, why not Russia?

"Nigel Farage has urged Volodymyr Zelenskiy to seek a peace deal with Russia, “otherwise there will be no young men left in Ukraine”.The Reform UK leader, who has been criticised for suggesting the west provoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, said it was time for the Ukrainian president to rethink his goal of reclaiming all territory lost to Vladimir Putin’s invasion, as such a mission was going to be “incredibly difficult”.
Farage says Zelenskiy should seek Ukraine peace deal with Russia | Nigel Farage | The Guardian

The Charter of the UN, the Geneva Convention on Human Rights, the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the Minsk Agreement of 2014 -are there any laws that can be broken that Farage thinks are not relevant today? That he is alleged to be 'soft' on Putin is one thing, the actuality of Russia's attacks inside the UK, in London and Salisbury makes his 'realist' position even more offensive -but this is a man who sees himself as a Revolutionary, and who commands his private company/political party more like Lenin than Kerensky. One wonders if by comparison the UK decided Northern Ireland was no longer worth the cost, and abandoned it, instead of taking on the challenge of a negotiated settlement. It amounts, in effect, to a dereliction of the very politics that Farage claims he wants to be a leading part of.

Dangerous times, when a candidate for Parliament endorses a convicted criminal in the US, and bends his knee to the diktat of another Russian mass murderer.

I did not watch the debate last night, as I see no point hearing the same old soundbites about tax and delivery and 'we can do better than this'. I don't know if anyone mentioned the Arts, but there is a crisis in the Arts that I think may be more serious than the crisis in the NHS. Live music venues of the kind bands play in when they are starting out -and this goes for rock, folk and Jazz-, are closing because most of them are in pubs where the electricity bills have gone through the roof and the costs of putting on an event are greater than the receipts -on the other hand, giant venues are being built all over the place but aimed at the 'mega stars' like Taylor Swift so that it is becoming a top-heavy industry which benefits people who, like Taylor Swift, don't even need to perform live. (See the two links below)

Birmingham's Symphony Hall was fought for and opened in the 1990s, and is one of the finest in Europe, not just the UK. Garsington opera is in reality a custom-built pavilion in the grounds of a stately home, but other than the renovation of Glyndebourne in 1994, there has not been a custom built opera house in the UK since the renovation of a theatre on the site now occupied by the Royal Opera Covent Garden in 1858. This dump of a venue is a disgrace to Art itself, it has appalling sight lines which means customers are expected to pay up to £100 for a seat that doesn't have a clear view of the stage -if it was a cinema it would never be built. Covent Garden cannot be pulled down because it is a listed building, but I am sure it could be sold and turned into a hotel -but will the British ever invest -not fund -INVEST in the arts which is a billion dollar industry?

The Elbphilharmonie in Hamburg cost 866 million Euros; Munich is spending over 150 million renovating the National Theatre, home to the Bayerisches Staatsoper; the opera house in Cologne is still in the process of being renovated, and if you want a venue with a clear view of the stage and seats at 50 Euros that would set you back £200+ in London, go to Leipzig.

I don't get it -think of all the applications of the Arts from the subjects -music, painting, writing, filming- that could be taught in schools, to young musicians learning their trade in pubs and clubs, to the venues, and all of the people required to work in the industry -then Arts funding does not become a luxury or spending other people's money on something nice but not need to have, it becomes an investment in people's lives and the economy too.

14 years of mean, anti-culture with Brexit denying so many musicians the opportunity to play live in the EU. The fat cats who market the giant stadia for the Swift and Madonna and Bruce merry-go-rounds may be laughing all the way to the bank, but I wonder how many aspiring musicians and actors look at their prospects and decide to stack shelves in Tesco as the only way to make a living?

Is Labour going to invest in the Arts? I don't know.

Why are So Many Massive Music Arenas Being Built in the UK? (timeout.com)

Grassroots live music venues suffer 'most challenging year', report says - BBC News

This may be a roll call of 14 years of Failure, but it doesn't mean that the next 14 years will reverse those policies, improve on them, or not run up a list of their own failures. On one level I wish Starmer well, but I am too old to believe that anything other than marginal improvements here and there is the most likely outcome of a Labour Govt, while on other issues, for example, Israel and Palestine, I have no faith in Labour at all.

An (incomplete) list of every terrible policy the Conservatives have inflicted on Britain since 2010 | Jonn Elledge | The Guardian

I can't see the details but the New York Times offers a contrast to the post above, some of which can be seem on the front page. Earnings are down, local govt grants have been cut, taxes are up so their middle passage -'About the same' -doesn't sound right, but they might be using a different set of stats or parameters to reach these results.

The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos (nytimes.com)

What Got Better (and Worse) in Britain Under the Conservatives - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

On one thing the polls were right: that Labour would secure a handsome majority in the House of Commons without a handsome increase in the number of people voting for them. The leader, Sir Keir Starmer, was elected but his share of the vote in his constituency in London compared to 2019 fell by 14%. Some candidates failed to win seats because independents split the Labour vote, which is also the case in some seats where the Conservatives clearly lost seats because of Reform UK though in others even those two party votes combined would not have been enough to beat either Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

The result has decimated the Conservative Party, and former Cabinet members too, but those that remain indicate that the Party is likely to remain on the 'right' of British politics -they can't do much about Labour, but are looking over their shoulders at Reform UK and thus may feel a need to steal their thunder.

Reform UK had a good night, though Farage's claim they would attract 6 million votes was out by 2, though he is now an MP for the first time with a couple of mates to help him, perhaps to avoid Parliamentary duties, if he is as slack in the Commons as he was when a member of the European Parliament.

Is Reform UK a genuine threat? Only slightly. It is obvious that so far Immigration is its only recognizable policy and that it was the one thing they hammered on during the campaign. If Labour can 'stop the boats' crossing the channel, and even reduce net immigration over the next two years, Reform UK will have its major issue undermined.

But Farage has form -not so much winning elections, but failing to be a good leader of a political party. Two months ago he insisted he would spend this summer in the USA campaigning for Donald Trump (who publicly congratulated him on becoming an MP) and that he had no interest in getting involved in British politics, outside his TV show on GB News (which I assume he will now have to give up).

His record as leader of UKIP and then the Brexit Party is not good. What characterised UKIP was a succession of candidates who had to be sacked, suspended or who resigned when making public statements so outrageous the leadership had no choice, or who attacked the leadership and even before yesterday's poll candidates stood down, or even denounced the Party for its occasional but naked racism, of the kind which slots Reform UK into the space made vacant by the neo-Nazi parties of the past, such as the National Front and the BNP. Farage himself once described UKIP members and even candidates as 'low grade people' and I doubt the new cohort seeing a chance of becoming an MP will be of a 'better class' than the ones who flocked to UKIP or the Brexit Party -Brexit now being a vote loser.

Millionaire Richard Tice was the leader until Farage, the majority shareholder in Reform UK, shoved him aside, in an act we know little about. Reform UK have some of the media on their side, notably the Telegraph, where Tice's partner, Isabel Oakshott writes columns of opinion that go beyond immigration to feed at and feed the trough of 'anti-Woke' Libertarians.

Because if Farage does more to broadcast the policies of Reform UK, voters might not like it: radical plans to privatize the NHS, slash immigration to zero, engage in 'culture wars' of the kind we see in the US, may lose the support they currently have, and with internal splits and public rows, and the autocratic personality of Farage himself, they will remain a minority party, if that. Farage walked away from UKIP -twice- and could do so with Reform UK, he is in it for himself as much as the UK.

it is now up to Labour to deliver on their promises, a hard task and one that will be met with a hostile press and media. I wish them well, but I don't see instant successes as was seen when Blair became PM in 1997.

Forgot to add that the Conservative Party was wiped out of Wales, and the vote in Scotland was a disaster for the Scottish National Party. Labour is now has the largest number of MPs in both countries.

Most satisfying result of the cull was Liz Truss losing her seat, so happy to see her ousted with a 26.9% swing.

Shame that Penny Mordaunt was removed though, a capable MP and sword bearer.

Reform were forecast 13 seats in the exit poll but only got 4 and I think you are right once the anger has died down their ‘contract’ will be under the microscope and interesting to see whether Farage buggers off to the USA to brown nose his chum in the November election.

Down to Starmer’s changed Labour then, rather him than me….

Let's hope this becomes a worldwide trend. France seems shaky, though.

Re Penny Mordaunt: had she kept her seat, she would now be one of the favourites to become Party leader. If the BBC is right (this lunchtime) the new Parliamentary party is not as 'right wing' as it was under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, but out in the country the Conservative Associations are further right than their MPs -it is not know how many former UKIP and Brexit Party members joined their local associations to 'firm up' Brexit, so it will be interesting to see if they desert the party for Reform UK. But it does mean a fracture that the party will find it hard to heal, not least as Liz Truss refused to accept that the policies she was part of over the last 14 years were responsible for them losing power. If the Party does revert to its 'One Nation' tradition, Jeremy Hunt might try for the leadership again, while Suella Braverman would represent the more 'cultural war' faction.

As for Farage, last night he declared that an Earthquake in British politics was going to be the start of a national movement. Hmmm...in 2014 after the European Parliament elections

"Farage said the result justified the description of an earthquake because "never before in the history of British politics has a party seen to be an insurgent party ever topped the polls in a national election"".
Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake | European elections | The Guardian

And if he does create a national movement, I doubt he will be able to control it. Too early to say, but let us give the new lot a chance to -dare I say it?- Deliver something positive.

It's notable that the actual Labour vote wasn't very impressive - up only 1.7% to 33.8%. The result was a rejection of the previous government rather than any enthusiasm for the alternative. They better hope Conservative and Reform don't amalgamate.

FPP certainly delivers some wildly disportionate outcomes. How can a system be democratic when a party can win 2/3 of the seats with only 1/3 of the vote?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

Let's hope this becomes a worldwide trend. France seems shaky, though.

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The common pattern seems to be that incumbents are struggling everywhere. People are unhappy with the way things are going, so they take it out on whoever is in government.

The other common pattern in many countries is a shift away from the traditional two major parties, which is another sign of dissatisfaction. Labour and Conservative combined received only 57.5% of the vote, which I think might a historically low share.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...4-live-in-full

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

It's notable that the actual Labour vote wasn't very impressive - up only 1.7% to 33.8%. The result was a rejection of the previous government rather than any enthusiasm for the alternative. They better hope Conservative and Reform don't amalgamate.

FPP certainly delivers some wildly disportionate outcomes. How can a system be democratic when a party can win 2/3 of the seats with only 1/3 of the vote?

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The answer is that, strictly speaking, the citizens of the UK elect an MP to represent a place, their constituency, which is why Independent candidates with no party affiliation can not only seek election but get elected too, there are more Independents in this House of Commons -though in some cases, eg Jeremy Corbyn, it is because they have been expelled from their previous party. It also means that any MP can become Prime Minister, if the House of Commons so votes. Party affiliation has only been significant since the Reform Act of 1832, prior to which 'Whigs and Tories' were more loose affiliations than parties in the sense we understand it today.

We held a Referendum on voting procedures in 2011 when PR was rejected. This might become an issue again, the problem being that even supporters of PR are divided over which system best suits the UK -in General Elections, as PR is or will be used in the elections of Devolved Assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

But yes, it does mean that even with a large majority, Labour will be vulnerable to even modest swings in some constituencies, so if it hangs on for 5 years, the election in 2029 could produce another lopsided result.

But a) Single Member Simple Plurality does give the Govt the secure base in the Commons on which to pass legislation; and b) PR would benefit extremist parties like Reform UK though again, the outcome depends on the system. For example, parties have to get at least 5% of the vote to be admitted to the Bundestag in Germany, where in Israel 3% not only gets you into the Knesset, but into Government too. Farage wants PR precisely to obtain the power he lacks through the existing system, though what he would do with that power is not certain, given most of the time he is just a loud mouth preferring to stir up discontent, like his idol Trump, rather than deal with real issues in a realistic way.