Climate change could mean the extinction of our species

Trish, I think that demography as presented by Sarah Harper can establish general trends in population growth, some of the more sensitive issues relate to specific cases where, for example, the USA will in the not too distant future, host a population whose majority have no ties to Europe or the English language -or for that matter, Italian, German, French and Polish. The problem is that issues like this become politicised when, for example, you read people's comments in the English papers that state their belief that in 20 years time 'we' will be dominated by 'them' -usually an absurd claim that 'they' are Muslims and 'we' will all be subject to Shari'a law. Demography aside, I think that there is no law that claims consumption must follow income growth, that as income grows more people insist on eating meat every day where before it was once a week; that they must own and drive a car where they used to take a bus -in Beijing most of the time the pace of traffic is the same whether you are in a car or a bus because the roads can't cope, etc.

But, if there is some odd mechanism that ultimately reduces continuous growth in the population through infertility, could the human race make significant changes to its 'daily grind' and first halt the problems established by climate change and resource management, and then move on to the creation (probably not consciously) of an equilibrium which preserves the natural world without denying humans entirely what they/we want? Or is this a dream?

Fertility rates can be voluntarily lowered (and they often are when individual economic security isn't tied to having a large family) without there being a biological mechanism that increases infertility. The hope is the we can create the right economic conditions (energy and food) for this to happen world wide and hopefully it wouldn't entail devouring the planet.

The demographers unfortunately forgot to include one sector of the populace in their analysis, namely vampires. If every vampire limited itself to turning only one human being into a vampire per year, still one vampire in less than 33 years could convert the entire population of Earth into immortals. A population of billions with a zero mortality rate could be an insurmountable problem.

The alarming thing about the first graph is that it’s faster than exponential growth. The doubling period diminishes as time progresses. The hopeful thing about the graph is that it indicates that population growth rates may be flexible. Indeed the second chart below shows that since about 1965 the world population growth rate has been declining.

Why? High mortality rate? Low fertility rate? Dr. Harper sides with the latter explanation. IMO it has more to due with human responses to the stresses and comforts of their environment than an as yet undiscovered mechanism that is making us infertile.

Suppose the prognostication is correct and the growth rate reaches 0.5% by 2050. That’s still exponential growth. If I’m interpreting the chart correctly it represents a doubling rate of 140 years. That’s encouraging. We haven’t seen that rate since the nineteenth century.

Still, without a mechanism to explain the chart, I find the prognostication difficult to accept.

Infertility is an interesting issue because it does not seem to affect all men but is differentiated across the globe; the implications if, for example, Arabs and Africans are less infertile than European and Asian men has both political and cultural implications. And yet, just as there was a moment I vaguely recall when the prediction of deaths from complications following infection by HIV was measured in global numbers that, mercifully have not followed, so there is now a claim that a new strain of flu could wipe out half the planet -though the arguments about a magnetic reversal of the poles wiping out life on earth -or changing it markedly so that we can no longer use computers or eat honey and smoked salmon are probably wild...the last link, on the emergence of Syphilis, is a fascinating example of how disease has shaped societies and culture...

-SuperFlu will kill 50%
http://www.doctortipster.com/6952-du...-millions.html

-Magnetic reversal
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/...oles-flip.html

Syphilis: Purple Flowers and Pain
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2013...x-fear-borgias

IMHO world population growth rates have declined because humans have become aware of the limitations the planet has to support them, governments in some countries have made population control a priority and in many western countries declining economic parity has made it difficult enough to raise large families that the practice diminished.

Whether it is state policy in China or economic conditions in the US the size of families is in decline. None of it fast enough to counteract the destructive nature of our carbon footprint.

The Koch Brothers don't care how hot it gets on east because it will only help them become adjusted to the temp they will experience in eternity.

Dept. Of Defense Warns Of The Dangers Of Climate Change:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGQCpnyp6Ok

Pollution from car emissions killing millions in China and India

Study published by Lancet says surge in car use in south and east Asia killed 2.1m people prematurely in 2010:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...hs-china-india

An interesting new book about climate change...

...??

...:)