Covid-19 Politics

Meanwhile in the UK the end is in sight...or so we are told. The statistics look good right now, but in my pessimistic view, there are still dangers ahead because while the UK reaps the reward of a successful vaccine campaign -thank you NHS!- if we are not safe until all are safe, it is tempting to think of a weekend in Lisbon, a week on the Costa del Sol, or Mykonos, or Crete or...but the situation in India -and thousands enter the UK from India each week- and Brazil is scary. New variants will complicate the overall picture, a new surge of cases cannot be ruled out. But at least in the UK we can be thankful for not having an idiot like Tucker Carlson pouring scorn on the vaccination of children, indeed, scorning most rational forms of behaviour.

So we may be booking that restaurant for late May -asuming they can get the staff to serve customers (I think NYC also has this staffing shortage) - and while there are limited seating arrangemens for concerts in Symphony Hall from late May to July, I would be cautious about changing my behaviour, though I hope to go to at least two of the concerts if I can get tickets, as I know from previous exprience the audience will not be crowded together.

The Guardian has a summation of the current UK situation which starts like this-

"The handling of the coronavirus crisis in the UK has provided few moments to celebrate, but the day we reach zero deaths from the disease will clearly be one to toast. That day may not be far off. On Tuesday, the UK reported four Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. On Monday it was only one. Months of painful lockdown, in the face of more transmissible variants, and the rapid rollout of effective vaccines, have proven their worth. We have good reason to feel optimistic for the months ahead."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-for-optimism

All of the countries that have been able to vaccinate a large part of their population have benefited from greater epidemiological control. The problem is mobilizing the efforts everywhere before the virus mutates and new rounds of vaccines are needed and we face another race to vaccinate. I think the mrna platforms can be used to quickly develop new vaccines but it takes a while for manufacturing to ramp up and vaccinating billions of people once is obviously difficult, let alone distributing a third dose.

It is a shame that in the U.S. we are getting closer to a point where supply of the vaccine exceeds demand. The efforts of Fox News and other propaganda mills to sow confusion about the vaccine will cost more lives. The decision about whether to vaccinate should be very straightforward for almost every adult. I am all for weighing the costs and benefits of a medical decision but when the benefits exceed the risks by so much it looks like misinformation and dogma are interfering with public health.

I can understand Trump's postion, because his is plain ignorant, and has no intellectual curiosity to enable him to change his views. What puzzles me is Carlson, who has a degree in history, claims to be a fan of Grateful Dead, if that means anything, and has four children -have any of them been vaccinated against measles and polio? It seems to me an almost deliberate attack on science, not because of the science, but politics, and politics that is cheap and nasty. Obama encourages young people to get vaccinated so there must be something wrong, because Obama said it. Dr Fauci does the same, and it is 'child abuse'. There is something of the 'dark arts' of Murdoch here -never report news when you can create it. The danger is that there are enough people there (and sadly here in the UK too) who regard vaccinations as a conspiracy to sterilize the population or infringe the liberty of the individual, all of whom have been vaccinated as children and, I assume, none of whom want Polio, or want their children to die from Measles.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Meanwhile in the UK the end is in sight...or so we are told. The statistics look good right now, but in my pessimistic view, there are still dangers ahead because while the UK reaps the reward of a successful vaccine campaign -thank you NHS!- if we are not safe until all are safe, it is tempting to think of a weekend in Lisbon, a week on the Costa del Sol, or Mykonos, or Crete or...but the situation in India -and thousands enter the UK from India each week- and Brazil is scary. New variants will complicate the overall picture, a new surge of cases cannot be ruled out. But at least in the UK we can be thankful for not having an idiot like Tucker Carlson pouring scorn on the vaccination of children, indeed, scorning most rational forms of behaviour.[/url]

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The end has been in sight in Australia for several months now but somehow we never quite get there - if by end you mean a complete return to normal. This is in a country with only one Covid death so far this year.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-...case/100119776

That said, things are pretty much back to normal for the great majority of people for the great majority of the time (apart from overseas travel). The authorities here are generally applying a zero tolerance strategy, which means restrictions are reimposed for short periods whenever there is a small number of community transmission cases. Most people are still accepting of these temporary inconveniences.

One policy that has attracted a lot of criticism is the banning of travel from India (currently until May 15). There is a real question as to the morality of leaving your own citizens stranded in a vulnerable situation. Apparent inconsistencies in the treatment of different countries don't help - there was no ban on flights from the US or Europe when they had higher per capita infection rates previously.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-...d-19/100117620

It's not as if these people would be moving around freely as they would have had to spend 2 weeks in quarantine.

I think we can agree that had countries such as the US and UK banned entry into the country in January or even February 2020, the incidence of infection would not have been so great. It didn't take long for Trump in office to impose bans on selected 'majority Muslim' countries, and while the US air space was shut down for 'only' two days after 9/11, it has been estimated it took six years for the aviation industry to recover from the shock.

In the case of Covid, I think it is a matter of Geography rather than politics -Australia is in a postion where it knows the situation in India has not so much deteriorated, as collapsed, in spite of previous successful efforts to contain the virus. Throw in the potential for variants, and the logical position is to ban entry from India until India has control of the situation. I would also have thought Australia could fly its citizens from India into the country somewhere, test them, or hold them in a hotel until they are satisfied they are not infected, or if they are, quarantine them- and vaccinae them- for the required time. It would be easier to handle a limited number of people than just trust to luck and test every say, 50th person arriving fom India. We are all still vulnerable, so it makes sense to do things that are practical and safe for all.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

I would also have thought Australia could fly its citizens from India into the country somewhere, test them, or hold them in a hotel until they are satisfied they are not infected, or if they are, quarantine them- and vaccinae them- for the required time. It would be easier to handle a limited number of people than just trust to luck and test every say, 50th person arriving fom India.

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That is what happens already. With the exception of New Zealand, international arrivals are strictly limited and 2 weeks quarantine is mandatory.

Anyway, the government has already announced that flights from India will recommence. They are arguing that the pause was needed to avoid the system being overwhelmed with infections. The problem is that forcing Australian citizens to remain in India would have put them in an even worse situation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-...ghts/100123156

What the flight ban really suggests is that the government lacks confidence in the quarantine arrangements. As this has been going on for 14 months now I think more should have been done to strengthen the quarantine facilities. This is unlikely to be the last pandemic, so we should have moved past the point of relying on stop-gap arrangements.

In a perfect example of box-ticking, the UK Govt has now released the 'Green List' of countries UK citizens can visit without having to quarantine upon return, they include Tourist Hot Spots -well, maybe not always hot- such as St Helena (for all you Napoelon fans), Ascension Island, Trista da Cunha, the Falkland Island and the South Georgia and Sandwich Islands...then there is Gibraltrar -two streets, duty free shops and those disgusting monkeys; Iceland (for all you Game of Thrones geezers), and those hop-on-a-plane destinations such as Singapore, Australia and New Zealand. That leaves Portugal and Israel -but presumably not the illegaly occupied Palestinian territories, or the Gaza District where you find the typical Mediterranean getaway -sun, sea, sand and falafel. Maybe next year.

So no Greece or Spain, and with Turkey on the Red List, EUFA are being asked to re-consider Istanbul as the venue for the Champions League final between two clubs based in England -Manchester City and Chelsea.

I did a check and there is a city break in Lisbon in early June from Expedia with a return flight at £113 which is not bad. But I am not making any plans.

The list is here-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52544307

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Thank you for clarifying the situation in city and state...

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Their latest installment of who has the biggest one revolves around the safety in the subways as it relates to crime and the homeless problem.

Cuomo: "I wouldn't let my daughters ride the subway".

De Blasio: "The subways are safe and its the MTA (Metropolitan Transit Authority) and the media blowing things out of proportion".

Meanwhile, this happened at 5:00 in the afternoon in Times Square:

www.cnn.com/2021/05/08/us/new-york-times-square-shooting-3-injured/index.html

This city is so screwed.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Their latest installment of who has the biggest one revolves around the safety in the subways as it relates to crime and the homeless problem.

Cuomo: "I wouldn't let my daughters ride the subway".

De Blasio: "The subways are safe and its the MTA (Metropolitan Transit Authority) and the media blowing things out of proportion".

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Solution: the bus network! --?

As of mid-April I am fully vaccinated. Exactly two weeks after my second dose, I had a private session with a female GG bodybuilder. It was my first hug in 14 months.

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Originally Posted by Vladimir Putin

As of mid-April I am fully vaccinated. Exactly two weeks after my second dose, I had a private session with a female GG bodybuilder. It was my first hug in 14 months.

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I assume it was a Bear Hug...? Anyway, you are still breathing. But if in Russia, and a bodybuilder, are you sure she was GG?

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Originally Posted by Stavros

I assume it was a Bear Hug...? Anyway, you are still breathing. But if in Russia, and a bodybuilder, are you sure she was GG?

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It was Marilyn Yee, she’s from Hong Kong. Google her.

Some of the best news that I have heard all year:

People vaccinated against Covid-19 can go without masks indoors and outdoors, CDC says

http:// https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/...ted/index.html

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Some of the best news that I have heard all year:

People vaccinated against Covid-19 can go without masks indoors and outdoors, CDC says

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On one level, yes, good news. But as a matter of personal choice, will you wear a mask in certain places, for example, on a bus or on the Subway?

The UK enters a more relaxed era next Monday, but concerns are rising about the 'Indian Variant' because of claims in India that it is infecting people who have been vaccinated, more so because in some parts of the UK, Bolton in particular, new 'Indian Variant' Covid cases have surged and most of them in the younger age group that has yet to be vaccinated, though one notes the cases have so far not led to hospitalization or death -but even the Prime Minister is 'anxious' about it, so the possbility of renewed but 'local' lockdowns being re-imposed is still an option for the Govt.

The details are in the reports from Sky (scroll down for the specifics on Bolton)-
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...tions-12302400

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Originally Posted by Stavros

On one level, yes, good news. But as a matter of personal choice, will you wear a mask in certain places, for example, on a bus or on the Subway?

The UK enters a more relaxed era next Monday, but concerns are rising about the 'Indian Variant' because of claims in India that it is infecting people who have been vaccinated, more so because in some parts of the UK, Bolton in particular, new 'Indian Variant' Covid cases have surged and most of them in the younger age group that has yet to be vaccinated, though one notes the cases have so far not led to hospitalization or death -but even the Prime Minister is 'anxious' about it, so the possbility of renewed but 'local' lockdowns being re-imposed is still an option for the Govt.

The details are in the reports from Sky (scroll down for the specifics on Bolton)-
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...tions-12302400

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As of right now, I still have to wear a mask on the bus or on the subway.

But as soon as that gets lifted, I will no longer continue to do so.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

As of right now, I still have to wear a mask on the bus or on the subway.

But as soon as that gets lifted, I will no longer continue to do so.

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That's your choice, but for my part I shall wear a mask if I am on a crowded bus or train, and if I am on the London Underground when I am there. I think it is a question of how close I am to others, and so far I don't know what I shall do if I return to the cinema, opera house, concert hall -I can get to the cinema for afternoon shows where there aren't so many people.

In the UK we now have the potential that the 'Indian variant' may not allow the 'final stage' of the lockdown in June to proceed as hoped, but it is still to early to say. That said, it does mean Governments need to factor in the risk or be caught out. I tend to be more cautious than a lot of people, but that doesn't meant I am right.

I am similar Stavros but I've given in a few times. I was at a function and everyone was vaccinated. Everyone took off their mask and I kept mine on most of the time but did have the mask off at times. I've had a couple of situations like this.

In my view, I am okay with the idea of people who are vaccinated having their masks off but I don't actually trust people to be honest about whether they've been vaccinated (unless I know them). We've had a pretty wild anti-mask movement in this country and these people have shown they have no compunction about lying and don't give a shit about anyone else's health.

As a matter of practicality, a vaccine that reduces mortality for covid by about 95% should bring the mortality rate to levels similar to what we accept without masks. It's just that I don't mind wearing one given that lots of people are still dying and the virus is circulating a lot in my area.

Stavros is also right about the variants. What percent of the circulating virus is either the South African variant or the newer variant from Brazil? Probably low but still it is out there. I've had pfizer shots and the only studies of the effectiveness against the SA variant (b.1.351) is in vitro and the antibodies showed reduced neutralizing ability....so we know it's less effective, but in the real world, not how much. As filghy had pointed out a ways back, might be different types of effectiveness v plain old disease as opposed to severe disease as opposed to death, but I don't want to find out.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

As a matter of practicality, a vaccine that reduces mortality for covid by about 95% should bring the mortality rate to levels similar to what we accept without masks.

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This is a simplification but I think generally applies. The complexity includes what Stavros said about variants and also special populations. I would wear a mask around my nieces and nephews and my uncle who is older and very weak.

I wear it generally just because I feel a bit safer that way and I don't mind wearing it but I think people should consider wearing them if they're in a setting with a lot of vulnerable people. It makes them feel better probably. But I did anticipate we get to a point where vaccinated people will mostly not be wearing masks and while I'm okay with it I still keep it on as an additional layer of safety.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

This is a simplification but I think generally applies. The complexity includes what Stavros said about variants and also special populations. I would wear a mask around my nieces and nephews and my uncle who is older and very weak.

I wear it generally just because I feel a bit safer that way and I don't mind wearing it but I think people should consider wearing them if they're in a setting with a lot of vulnerable people. It makes them feel better probably. But I did anticipate we get to a point where vaccinated people will mostly not be wearing masks and while I'm okay with it I still keep it on as an additional layer of safety.

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Key points -a) if I continue to wear a mask on public transport it is a more general protection against other people's smells and expectorations; and b) the problem with the 'Indian variant' is that we don't know enough about it, whether vaccinated people infected need hospitalization, whether it is lethal, or just a nuisance, and its threat to young people. In general I think a lot is now know about the virus, how it behaves when it enters the body, and how to combat it -each variant will have a unique character, but I don't think the variants are unbeatable, it is just a matter of time as the experts monitor its behaviour, just as 'flu vaccines are amended every year to take account of variants.

We are still in the thick of this pandemic, even if we can see the light. And by 'we' I mean the more advanced economies, I don't know how it is effecting people in rural areas of the world where health care is rudimentary or even non-existent. Indeed, I believe at this stage of the epidemiology of Covid, the key issues are political, economic and social, rather than medical -the three former conspiring to provide the latter with a home.

Considering how badly the CDC botched this whole thing about vaccinated people no longer having to wear masks indoors and outdoors. Along with certain governors all of sudden saying they're not going to follow the science and data and say they're going to decide for themselves when mask mandates can be lifted, I now wish the CDC hadn't said anything in the first place.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Considering how badly the CDC botched this whole thing about vaccinated people no longer having to wear masks indoors and outdoors. Along with certain governors all of sudden saying they're not going to follow the science and data and say they're going to decide for themselves when mask mandates can be lifted, I now wish the CDC hadn't said anything in the first place.

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I was not aware of this situation so I googled it and found the article linked below. I think there are a number of issues here, which I can't verify. One would be the historic one of the pandemic beginning, and maturing when Trump was President and either indifferent to its impact, or more concerned to play it down for political reasons, controlling what the CDC could say in public. The other is the crisis in policy making and implementation that affected the US but also places like the UK, Brazil, and India where the profile of this viral pandemi exposed a failure at the level of service and technical provision, by which I mean the fatal decisions made with regard to Care Homes (in the UK in particular), the initially inadequate supply of PPE, and most of all the management of lockdowns, which in some parts of the US never happened, and which in some parts of the UK were probably extended long beyond the need to, but which may have to return on a local basis, if that makes any sense -can the police stop people leaving or entering Bolton?

Basically, the vaccine has become a 'get out of gaol free' card, with the novel situation that people can claim to be vaccinated when they haven't beeen, but where it is unreasonable to ask shop or restaurant workers to become 'vaccine police' and where there is already an online trade in fake vaccination cards such as the one I -and probably you too- have.

One of the curious factors here, is that the States that have handled the pandemic well have tended to be those with an existing or historic authoritatian government -Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore spring to mind. Israel may be a democratic and open society but most of its citizens are also military reservists, and can be mobilized -'co-ordinated'- quickly and effectively, and also because, the Haredi aside, citizen loyalty to the State exists on a level probably ridiculed and opposed in parts of the US, where defying 'the Feds' is a badge of honour for some, or some childish tantrum with Democrat Governors and Mayors, themselves of varying quality.

As remarked on above, this has been a poor example in too many places of politics failing to protect the citizen. The oddities too are places like Australia which has handled the pandemic well in terms of the numbers and rate of infection, but where, as with Japan, the rate of vaccination of the population has been poor -do people think they just don't need it?

The UK is going to have a public enquiry into the pandemic, but it won't begin its work until 2022, and as these things take at least 1-2 years, I doubt a report will be published until 2025 by which time few people will be interestd if Covid is something that happened 'years ago'- I guess Congress will also spend a year or more investigating it, and in both cases the question that must be asked -'What can we learn from this?' may produce answers that are either ignored or become clauses in legislation and regulations.

But yes, when a major institution issues contradictory advice, it doesn't encourage confidence. Maybe as an advocate of behaviour at the policy makking level, the CDC needs reform?


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/cdc-...ne-police.html

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Originally Posted by Stavros

The oddities too are places like Australia which has handled the pandemic well in terms of the numbers and rate of infection, but where, as with Japan, the rate of vaccination of the population has been poor -do people think they just don't need it?

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It's hard to work out why the vaccination rate if so low in Australia, especially with the blame-shifting that has been occurring around the division of responsibilities between federal and state government. Part of the reason is that low case numbers have meant that there has not been the same urgency as elsewhere. There have also been supply constraints due to countries restricting vaccine exports.

A big part of the problem is that the federal government placed too much reliance of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is presently the only one manufactured locally. As a result of the blood clot problems they had to advise against people under 50 getting it. As supplies of other vaccines are still limited that means anyone over 50 (which includes me) can only get AstraZeneca, and I guess some are reluctant.

It looks like the more centralised NHS system in the UK may have done a better job of rolling out vaccines efficiently. I was recently surprised to learn that I am now eligible to be vaccinated, which I only found out because I checked the website on a whim. I had been assuming that I would receive some official notification.

'Vaccine hesitancy' is to my mind a slippery term, because it implies that those refusing to be vaccinated now might do so later, whereas I wonder if they intend to be vaccinated at any time. The current problem with the 'Indian variant' in places like Bolton and Bedford, is that some are accusing those now hospitalized, including in intensive care, of having refused the vaccination, while others claim that many cases are of people under 40 who have not been eligible for vaccination. On top of that, the Govt is being criticized for not restricting entry into the UK from India, and given that it can take up to 3 hours for travellers to be processed through passport control at Heathrow, one wonders how they distance people in those queues.

As for Australia, I think that one consequence of the Covid experience may be to signficantly improve its domestic manufacture of vaccines, to relieve the country of any dependence on external sources when, in a pandemic, the demand for vaccines may limit supplies. It is discussed in this article-

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ply-disruption

My uncle who I described as older and weak in my last post just passed away. He had deteriorated over years and though I loved him the circumstances meant it didn't hit me as hard as other deaths in my family.

But the reason I bring this up is because his daughter, who is my cousin, is coming to town for the funeral. My father just told me that she is "vaccine hesitant". Although a certain percent of the population has not gotten the vaccine I didn't personally know anyone who hadn't. I believe someone who I worked with had an anaphylactic reaction to another kind of vaccine and this gave her a bona fide reason for not getting vaccinated. My cousin, on the other hand had no such reason and is going to be interacting with our entire family, including dozens of people in their seventies.

I do think people have a right to make their own health decisions but I can't help but judge that kind of ignorance and selfishness. Ignorance because her chance of having a bad reaction to a Pfizer vaccine is about one in a million but her chance of dying from covid, at 42 years old, is about 3 in a thousand. Her behavior also has an impact that gets magnified throughout the population and endangers even those who have been vaccinated. People like my cousin are a bigger obstacle on the path to normalization (in the U.S.) than any administrative mistakes thus far.

If anyone is interested:

http:// www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

I'm actually surprised that most of the countries with the lowest fully vaccination rates per population are European countries.

Also, there is a pro domme that I follow on Twitter who resides in the UK I believe. She said she got her first vaccination shot the other day and should be getting the next one in 4 months. I don't know if she meant to say 4 weeks, but if it is 4 months, that seems odd to me

A 12 week interval is now common-

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special...clusives/92117

A couple of articles out right now asserting that three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were sick in November 2019. The original source of the claim is a U.S. intelligence report. First, if there is such a report I don't know whether it's accurate. If it is that is definitely suggestive (though not definitive proof) of a lab leak given the timeline.

Republicans seem to think that such a leak would support their theories that China developed the virus as a weapon and intentionally released the virus. It doesn't so I'll just ignore them. If their claim is that the idea of a leak wasn't investigated carefully enough because it could be politically contentious that's a possibility. There are a number of virologists who have been warning about the safety of such labs saying that while the risk of contamination might be low at each lab, cumulatively the global risk is quite high and constitutes a hazard we need to collectively address.

At no point during the pandemic would the information about the virus' origin have helped to eradicate the virus or deal with it medically. Knowing of its origin right now would help us make safety procedures at such labs and institutes a pressing global matter and transparency about what kind of research is taking place at each lab essential.

We know that at least 3.4 million people are dead because of this virus. Understanding its origins is crucial to helping prevent future incidents, particularly if it mutated in a petri dish instead of crossing over from bat to unknown intermediate species to human.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-intel-report-identified-3-wuhan-lab-researchers-who-n1268327

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

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Originally Posted by broncofan

A couple of articles out right now asserting that three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were sick in November 2019. The original source of the claim is a U.S. intelligence report. First, if there is such a report I don't know whether it's accurate. If it is that is definitely suggestive (though not definitive proof) of a lab leak given the timeline.

Republicans seem to think that such a leak would support their theories that China developed the virus as a weapon and intentionally released the virus. It doesn't so I'll just ignore them. If their claim is that the idea of a leak wasn't investigated carefully enough because it could be politically contentious that's a possibility. There are a number of virologists who have been warning about the safety of such labs saying that while the risk of contamination might be low at each lab, cumulatively the global risk is quite high and constitutes a hazard we need to collectively address.

At no point during the pandemic would the information about the virus' origin have helped to eradicate the virus or deal with it medically. Knowing of its origin right now would help us make safety procedures at such labs and institutes a pressing global matter and transparency about what kind of research is taking place at each lab essential.

We know that at least 3.4 million people are dead because of this virus. Understanding its origins is crucial to helping prevent future incidents, particularly if it mutated in a petri dish instead of crossing over from bat to unknown intermediate species to human.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-intel-report-identified-3-wuhan-lab-researchers-who-n1268327

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

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I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss not knowing the origins of the Corona virus during the pandemic wouldn't have been beneficial in some way.

I think it coming from a lab is a credible theory. But I don't think it was something that China developed as a weapon or if they did something they released intentionally. Because if they did, I think that is a legit reason for a declaration of war or some sort of military action. Not only by the United States, but some other countries as well. I do think that once it was leaked, China wasn't as forthcoming about it as they should have been.

I think if it was leaked from a lab, it was something that happened purely by accident. Either due to negligence or someone making a very costly mistake.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss not knowing the origins of the Corona virus during the pandemic wouldn't have been beneficial in some way.

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I know it sounds dismissive and I don't have any expertise here but what could the knowledge do unless the scientists developed a treatment during the research. The only options are suppression strategies and medical treatment. When they're working on it in a petri dish they should be decked out in hazmat type because they don't have an antidote. If they get infected and they infect others, it's out there...

There is an epidemiologist I follow on twitter named Marc Lipsitch who has been saying for a while that he's concerned about lab safety generally at these types of labs. His basic math was that even if it's a rare event at each one, it's not that unlikely cumulatively and the possibility of horrible events like this is too great.

We're on the same page about it being an accident and the fact that it's a genuine possibility. Also, agree China has not been forthcoming at all. I have been hesitant because on the right they don't know how to criticize China without being inflammatory but they've been as opaque as authoritarian societies often are. And it's selfish and harmful but an investigation will have to take place.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

I have been hesitant because on the right they don't know how to criticize China without being inflammatory but they've been as opaque as authoritarian societies often are. And it's selfish and harmful but an investigation will have to take place.

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Apologies because I realize I already stated Lipsitch's view in the previous post.

I also want to say there was never any benefit from the "China flu" comments or the "Kung Flu" type comments. If we wanted people to discuss a potential accident or a lack of transparency, these comments have been an impediment. They not only endangered Asian-Americans (first priority concern), they also put a cloud over any attempt to discuss the issue because people didn't want to be associated with the kind of racial animus being trafficked on the right.

I know I sure as hell didn't and don't. And the comments have played out in the form of violence all over the place against Asian-Americans.

A summary of the evidence Dominic Cummings gave yesterday. An epidemiologist argued that had someone from his discipline been in charge the Covid policy would have been simple: shut everything down, but that this would have not been politically acceptable. Cummings is candid about the failures of the Johnson govt, and at their worst they are a savage indictment of incompetence in Govt, not least when a risk exercise was carried out in 2016- Exercise Cygnus- to assess the UK’s ability to manage a major crisis such as a pandemic, though I don’t think Cummings referred to it. In other regards, the UK govt was as reluctant to take immediate action as many others, and it may be because of their prior experience with SARS that countries like Taiwan and South Korea acted swiftly and effectively, and it will be left to posterity to decide if the UK govt could have created an effective test and trace system earlier than the botched system it created in March 2020.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/9-explosiv...163154529.html

In Ohio they have a lottery that they enter people into if they get vaccinated. I understand from an international perspective this can all seem in poor taste. Vaccines have not been equitably distributed around the world and the U.S. and several other countries did get priority. Now our citizens don't think free vaccines that could save their lives are incentive enough they need financial incentives.

Still, I'm for using whatever reasonable incentives can get people vaccinated. Using the supply we've secured will only save lives particularly as we get exponential benefits in going from 50% of the population vaccinated to 60+ percent.

Personally, I think states should consider tax incentives to get people to get their families vaccinated. It would pay for itself in terms of its benefits.

https://www.vox.com/2021/5/28/224586...virus-pandemic

https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/...fyq-story.html

There are probably many stories like this but I found this woman's decency and heart to be very touching. The story of the last social media posts of someone who died of covid. She was very sweet but the ending makes me sad.

Now that things are opening up again and case levels are dropping I hope people remember the horrible toll this has taken on some families. Earla Dimitriadis is one of over 600,000 people in the U.S who died (3.7 million worldwide). Stories like this are taking place in India every single day by the thousands right now:(.

So much for following the science.

COVID-19 state of emergency will last beyond June 15, Newsom says

www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-04/covid-19-state-of-emergency-will-last-beyond-june-15-newsom-says

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Now that things are opening up again and case levels are dropping I hope people remember the horrible toll this has taken on some families. Earla Dimitriadis is one of over 600,000 people in the U.S who died (3.7 million worldwide). Stories like this are taking place in India every single day by the thousands right now:(.

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Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

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You're right. It is still raging in many places and each new variant brings slightly new properties, including partial, though incomplete evasion of some types of immunity. We don't know how long the vaccines immunize us for and most importantly how long against each variant.

I follow a scientist named Shane Crotty on twitter and have found some of his explanations helpful. In the first article he talks about booster shots and variants. The second is a research study showing the durability of different types of immunity beyond antibodies in people with natural infection. Several scientists I follow say those who were vaccinated generally have more robust immune responses than those with natural infection.

We're going to know we need boosters when there are more breakthrough infections. I think the breakthrough infections are being sequenced to see whether certain variants are overrepresented as well.

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/jun/0...mended-winter/

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte.../6529/eabf4063

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...-forever-virus

This article really underlines the point you're making. It talks not just about the variants we've seen but the ones we will see and the impossibility of ever eradicating this virus, particularly given the fact that it is now identified in multiple species including monkeys, cats, and deer. I wonder if those animals ever worried about disease carrying domesticated humans.

The lead author of the article is Larry Brilliant who worked with the WHO to help eradicate smallpox. Another author is vaccine maker Rick Bright who Trump fired for saying he didn't think there was evidence hydroxychloroquine works. They paint a fairly ominous picture and offers recommendations.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

This article really underlines the point you're making. It talks not just about the variants we've seen but the ones we will see and the impossibility of ever eradicating this virus, particularly given the fact that it is now identified in multiple species including monkeys, cats, and deer.

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Thanks. This does raise a tricky question for Australia, given we've relied so much on tight controls on international travel - which the government has indicated will remain for at least another year. At some point presumably we have to take a calculated risk as we can't stay cut off from the rest of the world for ever. Only 21% of the population has been vaccinated so far, which is way behind the US or UK. I only got my first shot this week.

I had to chuckle about the two authors' names being Brilliant and Bright.

A quick review of some issues:

1) The UK Govt plan to end lockdown measures on June 21st may be delayed by a month owing to the surge of new cases in some parts of the country-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ockdown-easing

2) Scientists have yet to find the precise link in the zoonosis claim- so far analysis of samples does not show a direct link between Bats and Humans, but there might be an intermediary link, eg Mink. The link looks at the various theories, ie
1) Direct Spillover from animals to humans
2) Spillover via Intermediary host
3) Introduction via refrigerated or frozen food
4) Labratory leak
-In other words, there is still a lot of research to be done before we can know where Covid-19 originated.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...four-scenarios

3) The claim the virus leaked from a Lab in Wuhan remains unproven. If it didn't happen, there will be no proof. If it did and the Chinese Govt has destoyed the evidence, again, there will be no proof. But some argue the sample analyses show no trace of human manipulation as one would find with lab-created materials. Moreover, the US Biologist, David Baltimore has rowed back on a claim he says was over-stated with regard to the Wuhan Laboratory as a/the source of the virus-
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-gun-1.4588965

What we do know:
Masks work
Social/Physical Distancing works
Vaccnes work

The question now is will the G7 and other States co-ordinate a truly Global vaccination campaign -it has been done before with Smallpox even if at first it suffered from some of the fractured decision-making and financial constraints we see today-
https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

I had to chuckle about the two authors' names being Brilliant and Bright.

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:tongue: I paused at the name Brilliant but I can't believe I overlooked Bright. Long history of achievement in the Bright and Brilliant families.

I got my shots a little while back and I've gotten more comfortable over time. The people I come across have become very comfortable very quickly. A bit too comfortable in my view. While no one decision is outrageous, lots of people entirely back to normal. I try to avoid large crowds but have been forced to attend two functions. I am satisfied being out and about, socializing with people I know and I don't really mind wearing a mask indoors or avoiding congregated settings when I can...

Thanks for the info about Australia. I've been curious but haven't kept up with it. You guys did such a great job, especially with isolating people with covid while they recovered and keeping the case load and death toll low. 21% is not a bad start at all and maybe when you are at numbers like 50% or so, the combination of some population immunity with your good health controls will encourage your govt to open up travel again.