Forgot to ask -where is Alex Azar? Is he not the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services? He doesn't appear on the President's TV show, or maybe I missed it when he was there. Has he nothing to say?
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Forgot to ask -where is Alex Azar? Is he not the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services? He doesn't appear on the President's TV show, or maybe I missed it when he was there. Has he nothing to say?
Suicide is a major cause of death every year. The marginals for suicide are not anywhere near 2500 deaths a day increase because of quarantine. Could someone commit suicide because they're locked in an apartment? Yes. Could they also commit suicide because four of their family members died of pneumonia, including one who had to share a ventilator that wasn't intended to be shared? Also possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
What is an acceptable number of deaths? How about the median for countries that used lockdowns initially instead of having some of the worst numbers in the world. Had New York locked down at the time you were annoyed primaries were cancelled, you'd be very close to the bottom of the curve. http://www.hungangels.com/vboard/sho...ns-2020/page17
Nobody knows where any of this leads. Your supposition is that some economic pain can be avoided and yet here and during the 1918 flu pandemic there's been a correlation between places that handled their problem well initially and economic recovery. It's very hard to find anyone who is raring to open up early but who wasn't also resistant to the measures that would have prevented us from having among the worst outbreaks in the world.
You say once tests become available private employers can be responsible for them. Sure. They're not available. They're not even close to available for prophylactic testing. Some people with symptoms aren't getting tested. Can't we wait until there's testing infrastructure in place to keep crowded work places from being petri dishes? That's not 18 months. It does require some work from the federal government.
Yes. We're not at the point where we have singularly focused on there being no deaths no matter what the cost. The number has to be way less than 2500 people a day I would think. Can't we even wait until that shows some sign of abating? What Germany is doing is trying to figure out how it can open up and also figure out where outbreaks are so that the r number is increasing but not all the way to 2.5. That IS figuring out how they can open up society while also accepting a higher number of infections. I don't see how that approach should cause yahoos with confederate flags and assault rifles to create a gridlock in Michigan.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
I wasn't annoyed that the primaries were cancelled. I just don't like the idea of giving someone in power the idea that its okay to postpone or possibly cancel an election under the guise of public safety:Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
I don't think either the Ohio or Connecticut primaries should have been postponed and the same goes for the remaining ones. If things have gotten back to normal by the summer, I say go ahead with the Party Conventions.
But under no circumstances should the General Election be postponed. With all this uncertainty and people being on edge, we need to have some stability and to remind people that life will go on once we get to handle on this thing. We didn't postpone elections during WWII or after 9/11. Democratic societies find a way to soldier on during times of crisis and make sure one of the principles of said society, free and fair elections, take place.
Connecticut has over 1000 deaths. So you weren't annoyed, you just think the states were wrong to save lives by postponing something that might have been done safer. Had these primaries been held, more people would have died without any benefit. Nobody thinks the general election should be postponed, just the primary process which only needs to be completed before the convention.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
You also apparently think Whitmer overstepped her bounds by saving thousands of lives with stay at home orders and not that the people protesting had received misinformation from right-wing media. She did not do anything any other responsible governor with an outbreak wouldn’t have done.
When this is all over we'll have more deaths than countries with our lead time, but at least our economy will be just as decimated.
Also, when during WWII did we have aerial bombing campaigns that made it dangerous to vote? Was 9/11 a single event or were people flying planes into polling stations?
I thought she overstepped her bounds on certain parts of the stay at home order. I didn't have an issue with orders themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
I also think you could have held the primaries safely. You could have people stand six feet apart in a polling place and have a certain amount of people in the area at once.
Finally, the only reason why I brought up the general election is because someone posed the question should it be postponed.
I apologize for my last post. I think I'm being too aggressive in my disagreement. You are right that being home all day and not having work is tough psychologically. I'm going to force myself to watch some netflix or I'll just be back to reading about this.
Stay safe.
This article looks at the difficulties some Asian countries have faced in trying to contain the virus while keeping their economies relatively open. They have had to impose stronger restrictions due to a second wave of infections. This is despite them being far more successful in containing infections earlier, as a result of doing much more on testing and contact tracing, as well as having cultures more encouraging of compliance with official directions. Just imagine the difficulties the US will face. Anyone who thinks victory is in sight is delusional.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/212137...ngapore-taiwan
I think that might relate to the question I posed in Thought for the Day some months ago when I asked if the Conventions and the General Election could be postponed, and you were emphatic the answer should be noQuote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
But if the armed militia that were seen in Lansing over the weeked to decide to 'Liberate Michigan', and other armed miitia, be the Patriotic Front, Proud Boys, or Willy Wankas Riflemen decide to 'Liberate Virginia', 'Liberate Minnesota' or hell, just go for 'Liberate America', you may not have a country left to vote in.
Can anyone comment on why California has done so much better in containing the virus? I think I read that they had twice as many returnees from China as New York state, yet deaths in New York are 30 times greater relative to the population.
I think a part of it is that California had its earliest diagnosed case in January and even though they did not take their first statewide action until March 11, the cdc was already looking for community spread in February. We didn't have adequate testing anywhere, but mayors in California were urging caution whereas New York was completely blindsided. Cali also had the benefit of at least one very good mayor early on who was conscientious and took a leadership role in San Francisco which probably wasn't hit as hard because of this. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-breed/609808/Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
Meanwhile, NYC is an incredibly densely populated place, relies on public transportation more than any city in California and by the time they diagnosed a case probably had significant spread. They diagnosed their first case on March 1st but probably had super-spreader events. You can't go anywhere in that city without running into hundreds of people in face to face interactions. The mayor of New York City told people they should be out enjoying themselves on March 2. This wouldn't have been as dangerous if March 1st was really the first day they had a case but it was only their first diagnosed case and you can't manage what isn't measured.
I also think the guidance the cdc and who have provided about how far someone can stand from someone else and be safe gives a false degree of confidence about transmission. Are you safe in a room with a thousand people if you're always three feet from others? Six feet? I've read studies and it's not entirely clear, but in New York, if you're in public you're surrounded by thousands at all times in my experience.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-wQuote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
I don't know enough to have a position on whether it's spread only in large droplets or also occasionally in aerosols or somewhere in between. Even if it is primarily spread through the former, a subway in NYC or frankly any crowded store might test that proposition.
here is the governor of Florida demonstrating the misuse of the N-95 in two ways. shouldn't he have given it to the first responder in the background, who has a surgical mask? I also don't think he fitted it properly. https://twitter.com/RexChapman/statu...00355582935046
this is the douche bag who the douche bag in chief entrusted with the public health of his state. Unbelieveable.
All this talk about whether elections should be postponed -- what about vote by mail? This would solve all the social distancing problems. Of course the Trumpers don't want it, not because of supposed voter-fraud, but because more non-Republicans would vote: Trump actually said that. In Oregon, they've had mail-in voting for years, with no significant voter-fraud problem.
If I remember correctly, the first patient admitted to the hospital that I work at was on March 9th. Before that, there was a cluster of cases in New Rochelle. For those not familiar, its a city in Westchester County about 30 minutes from Manhattan. They had to quarantine a good portion of a neighborhood. But it wasn't like China did with Wuhan province.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
Once more cases started popping in the city, things moved too quickly for the both city and state officials to get ahead of it. It wasn't until March 15th, that Mayor Deblasio decided to close the schools. Governor Cuomo's stay at home orders changed from week to week as he wanted to see how significant spread was going to be until they became what they are now.
Along with the lines about what you're saying in regards to Mayor Deblasio's mindset about the virus on March 2nd, the following is from a letter that was circulated around my apartment building dated on March 3.
Dear Shareholder:
We have been following news reports tracking the development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was originally identified in China and is now diagnosed in other countries. In light of newly released guidance for businesses and employees from the CDC, we want to share with you how we are monitoring the situation. As of today, the U.S. is not currently facing a pandemic spread of the virus, but it seems reasonable that we will see an increase in cases of COVID-19 in the future.
We are closely monitoring information from the CDC, along with the New York State Department of Health and the New York City Department of Health. Our planning and decision-making will be based on information from these and other reliable sources. We are also maintaining contact with the Real Estate Board of New York and Building Owners and Managers Association International to ensure we are up to date on industry-specific preparations and responses.
The rest of the letter just talks about general illness preparation.
So now the question becomes what information did Deblasio have on March 2nd to say people should be out enjoying themselves. Furthermore, what information did Nancy Pelosi have back in late February when she said it was safe for people to come to Chinatown.
https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/t...-u-s-response/
This is an interesting document that is a comprehensive timeline of the U.S.'s Coronavirus response dating back to 2019. I agree that the quality of Mayors and Governors had an impact on regional outbreaks, but our federal government has resources for pandemic preparedness states don't have access to. Of particular interest to me are emails in the Red Dawn email chain that include the Surgeon General, people from Health and Human Services, the CDC, and the NIH discussing frustrations that they were flying blind with respect to testing and that the window was closing with respect to implementation of social distancing. They knew this in late February but none of that urgency was communicated to the public.
A few things that are noteworthy: Dr Fauci was asked on February 29th whether the U.S. should be implementing social distancing measures. He said no but he did mark "community spread" as the time when such measures would be necessary. Several regions already knew they had community spread by that point.
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but there are people whose jobs it is to prepare for such events. The two to three week delay cost tens of thousands of lives, one can tell just based on the timing of when people died. Even when the curve flattens, a large percentage of new infections are carried forward from some who were infected because we didn't shut down. It was a colossal screw-up, most significantly in New York, but throughout the country. The failure to deliver tests is at the center of our errors, but there are also institutional failures that may have resulted from defunding pandemic response and brain drain, as not enough urgency was communicated to the public.
Interesting letter from your management company. Numbers from New York looked pretty good when I checked today. My state just updated their death totals with probable deaths this morning.
Edit: when I say numbers from New York looked pretty good, of course I mean relatively...
Also for those interested, here is the Red Dawn email chain linked separately
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
I'm looking at the progression of emails throughout from Dr. Carter Mecher, senior medical adviser for Veterans Affairs, and he looks really prescient. The email from February 28 calling for action and looking at Italy with foreboding was right on the money.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
A woman demonstrating over the weekend was on the BBC-2 Newsnight programme this evening (21st April) and on film she said that she no longer trusts scientists, but only God. It seems to me that in the unfolding tragedy some people take the view 'if I get sick and die, that is what God wants', 'if my neighbour gets sick and dies, I don't care'.
That the demonstrators aso brandish battlefield weapons underlines what may be the deepest crisis since 1776, because the President has abdicated his job to host a TV show, there is no leadership in the country, and crucially neither this President nor the Republican Party care.
It is as if they have decided to opt out of the Constitutional Republic because it has been 'bought' or 'captured' by non-White Americans, but whereas in 1861 they not only seceded from the US but attacked it, in this case I think the death of the US will take place over several years as individual States decide to simply ignore anything the Federal Govt says.
If the demented baboon gets another four yeas, it is over. He literally could not care what happens, he has his money in offshore accounts, he has an inflated opinion of himself, he has been part of the Murdoch Plan to end American Government and create a libertarian market-based economy with no governent interference, and the 45th, possible the last President far from resisting collapse, seems to both welcome it, and encourage the uneducated mob by tweeting 'Liberate Michigan'. Had the armed men stormed the Governors's office and shot her dead, the President might even pardon them of their crime and give them a medal.
He has said he hates what the USA has become, and then says of the FBI's officers who dedicated 30 years of their lives to their country -"You know what they are, though, they’re scum, they’re human scum," So Americans are now Human Scum, and unless I didn't read it, did anyone in his party object to the language? So those Americans served the US for 30 years during which he expected American tax-payers to service the debts he accrued from his failing businesses -that tells you all you need to know, for what President would stoop so low with this constant barrage of insult and abuse levelled at Americans? A President who doesn't care. To paraphrase de Blasio, it is not a case of telling New York, but the USA -'Drop dead'.
It may not be the end, but the US is now on the brink, and it may be the beginning of the end.
His approval rating is at 46%. It was exactly the same a year ago. Those who disapprove must vote against him this fall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
He owns a lot of commercial real estate. I haven't looked at his holdings in a while but those properties have large mortgages. Banks aren't going to want to foreclose on owners any more than landlords are going to want to evict their tenants when there is nobody to replace the shuttered businesses. But I imagine he's shuffling money around to pay mortgages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
I hate to attribute all of his stupidity to avarice and conflicts of interest, but it's not a good time to be in commercial real estate given that everything is leveraged in that business. His high end residential and offices are probably fine but what about hotels, entertainment, etc. I'm sure he wants the economy to be back even if it kills people.
Completely agree. Those who disapprove of Donald Trump must vote him againist him this fall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo
Agree Donald Trump wants the economy back up and running, even if kills people because it will give something to brag about to his supporters and cronies.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
Amazingly, the share of people who approve of Trump's handling of the coronavirus is still only slightly less than those who disapprove, and it's come down only a couple of points over the past month. There's even 17% of Democrats who think he's done a good job. It looks like people are more worried about the economy than the virus, which is what he is hoping to capitalise on. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo
Unfortunately, I don't think voting him out is going to be the end of your national nightmare. What are the chances Trump will accept defeat? The complaints about mail-in voting seem to be setting up a pretext.
I admit my previous post was a bit over the top, but your comment sums up part of the fear- the armed bands roaming the streets with battlefield weapons in demonstrations where placards read something like 'the lockdown is tyranny' feed in to the narrative that the 2nd Amendment is there to enable local militias to defend the US against invaders and tyrants, something of an irony when the current President appears to have encouraged them. It is a calculation they must make if the 45th President loses the election, would he support an armed insurrection against the State Goverment? It sounds preposterous but is I think on the agenda of the Patriotic Front, the Proud Boys and some of the more extreme groups. My guess is that a man who values money more than anything other than his ego, would calculate his losses if an armed insurrection devalued the dollar. Who knows?Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
But for me as an outside looking in, I wonder if two such hostile camps can ever be reconciled, if either side will accept defeat or what will they do if they are defeated? It seems to me that the most profound structural change that has taken place, has been the use of State's Rights to subvert the Constitution, and to elevate State's Rights to the status of 'Independent' Rights. When I was an undergraduate the lecturer we had in US Political History suggested we think of the 50 States as 50 countries, and it seems to me they are (re-)discovering their power.
The Constitution gives every citizen the right to vote, but in many States the letter of the law is a dead letter -States openly admit they are purging voter rolls to advantage one party rather than another. Obstacles that make it hard for citizens to even register are not coincidentally making it harder for Black, Latino and poor voters to register for the assumpiton is made that they tend to vote Democrat, and when they go to vote on election day pollng stations in Black majority areas are closed for 'health and safety' reasons.
The Constitutional right to an Abortion has been exposed to States Rights -the letter of the law is in effect a dead letter where the State defines legal term limits to the extent that an Abortion in practical terms is impossible to obtain.
Crucially, the Supreme Court has declined to rule on these issues on the basis it is up to the States to decide. For this reason, it seems to be that a more aggressive promotion of the State will advatage those who, win or lose the election, have found a way to rule without reference to either the Federal Government or the Constitution. It is secession in all but name, without going as far as to create a separate currency, and without restricting the free movement of people, though I can see a scenario in which people who now want to leave New York and New Jersey for the Dakotas or Wyoming may face a hostile reception.
Now back to the science. What I find so depressing about the demos in the US and the frustrations being voiced here in the UK about the lockdown, is that it is absolutely clear that Covid 19 thrives in crowds- sports events, clubs, public transport-, that it transmits with frightening ease, that it enters the body to lock onto the lungs with extreme speed and causes horrific results, and not just death.
I am no fan of Boris Johnson, but this mid-50s, energetic man is now barely able to walk 10 yards without having to rest from exhaustion, while in some cases there is a fear that having had Covid 19 can have a negative neurological effect that is still being examined -again, a man who has something of a brain must be in danger of not being able to use it again as once he did. If he cannot return to a normal life as some patients have, we may be looking for a new Prime Minister before the end of the year.
It is essential for people to mantain their distance from others, for large gatherings to be discouraged, even banned until it is deemed safe to return to normal, if that is possible.
This link offers some perspective on the development of a vaccine, a bit technical but I think some people will understand it -
https://www.fpm.org.uk/blog/covid-19...g-development/
https://www.businessinsider.com/wisc...lection-2020-4
Keep in mind that we don't diagnose all of the people who are infected and that Wisconsin doesn't have a really bad outbreak. The people who were there were all probably being cautious given the publicity about the elections at the last minute.
good news and bad news
https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...eles-county/3&
The bad: LA county has roughly 3% of the US population. If you extrapolate LA county's 200,000 to 400,000 cases nationally, it would equate to 6 to 12 million cases on April 10. If you extrapolate it to the world, you 150 to 300 million cases.
The good: LA county had 617 documented deaths from COVID 19 as of yesterday. So its lethality is overstated just as its prevalence is understated.
Nevertheless, there is nothing in these numbers that supports easing of social distancing, and I will continue to regard people I meet as if they were waving a bloody chainsaw.
I'd like to point out something I found out 3 days ago but I can't fathom.
I know a republican family in Texas where one, the grandfather, has died of covid-19 and another is currently hospitalized but not on a vent and that family still insists on facebook every day that trump is handling this pandemic well.
When your own family is afflicted, don't you have to stop and ask yourself if your political ideology is blinding you or is it your individual family member's fault for getting sick?
We are definitely in cult territory here. Even if people are not following this closely and are confused by misinformation there are two things that should have penetrated and at least created serious doubts:Quote:
Originally Posted by Cereal Escapist
(i) the President is passing the buck and refusing to accept responsibility for dealing with a national crisis;
(ii) until a few weeks ago he was dismissing the risks and claiming it was all under control.
I won't guess when Trump supporters will decide he's done a bad job. If it's someone else's family member who dies, it's not their issue. If it's their own family member, I've seen a few articles already that there are no hard feelings.
But even without increasing test availability and making sure our hospitals are equipped, imagine if he had just provided accurate information to the public. If he had consistently said, "people of all ages can die from this, those with pre-existing conditions are more likely to die and the elderly are more at risk but nobody is exempt. Also, you can spread the illness even if you don't have symptoms. It's twice as transmissible as the flu. Be careful." This would have had a huge impact and yet it's inconceivable that he can even maintain a consistent message because he's so tied to whatever's expedient (and he's got shit for brains).
He hasn't even told his base to stop spreading slander about Dr. Fauci. He hasn't told his base to stop attending these demented rallies where they're potentially spreading the disease. He's trying to scapegoat immigrants pretty late in the game given that wherever anyone has come from their outbreak is less severe than ours. All of the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin studies are coming back with disappointing results as well. We were all hopeful, but he doesn't have the first clue about any of the antivirals being studied or how far along different vaccine candidates are. He hasn't to my knowledge coordinated a national serological survey nor has he helped increase lab capacity which will be necessary to increase testing beyond the threshold it's been at for at least two weeks.
Anyway, hopefully we see some good news pretty soon.
Trumps own words will eventually come back to haunt him...Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
Attachment 1245014
I offer the link to Anthony Costello's twitter feed -he was on Channel 4 News last week arguing that one consequence of the UK Government's Exercise Cygnus, was that they decided not to stockpile ventilators and PPE but save money and opt to use supply chains should a pandemic take place. We can now see that supply chains have been a weak link because so many countries want the same supplies at the same time, and the UK is in the bizarre position of having stocks of PPE that have been sent abroad because they were in that supply chain! Supply chains may become new battleground if as some think can happen, governments decide China cannot be trusted, or relied upon to make things they can make themselves, though I doubt because of the capital cost that major industries are going to return to Europe and North America.
The twitter feed is here and has the cute argument that the countries that have been most successful in containing the worst aspects of Covid 19 all have one thing in common: they are led by women..
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Pretty poignant. I'll let this doctor speak for herself.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1252674211866464263
That thing about pushing hydroxychloroquine never happened, bronco. It's not as if they removed anyone from their job for resisting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/212309...-fox-news-hype
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/212317...-vaccine-trump
Thanks. I saw that. No wonder our agencies are getting stripped of talented people when self-censorship is now the most important qualification. I thought this was a good blog post by Bill Gates for anyone who is interested in general information about transmissibility, vaccine development, treatments from antibody treatments to antivirals to the use of convalescent serum, and testing. If you've been following you probably know a lot of this but not all and it's well organized and informative.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pa..._&WT.tsrc=BGTW
The medical genius Trumps latest covid cure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Laphroaig
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/stat...73235850706948
And the reaction to it...
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Lewis3/st...82576699969537
How long before those killed by Trumps stupidity overtakes the Covid death toll?
Just when you thought the lowest point had been reached, this...is he going to volunteer to be the first person to drink detergent? Are Murdoch's Morons on Fox News, who touted the first Miracle Cure over 300 times before dropping it, going to show us how wonderful it is to drink or inject detergent, and watch the sales of sun cream collapse as the people head to Florida for their daily dose of some ultra-violet (they have better UV there) ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Laphroaig
Thanks mostly for the second twitter link, Sarah Cooper deserves to be as famous for that skit as Stanley Tucci making a Negroni. She is also gorgeous whch helps get over the insane garbage that is now a daily feature of the worst TV show in American history,
Just the latest example of stupidity from the so-called medical genius Donald Trump,who is an unfit and unqualified clown who doesn't know what the hell he is doing. and doesn't believe in science and will silence and remove anyone who disagrees with his crackpot ideas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Laphroaig
The revelation in the Government document leaked to the Guardian begs all the right questions, but was the answer a simple case of indifference to the prediction, and a rejection of the money required to prepare for somethiing they did not think would become reality?
"Ministers were warned last year the UK must have a robust plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its potentially catastrophic social and economic consequences in a confidential Cabinet Office briefing leaked to the Guardian.
The detailed document warned that even a mild pandemic could cost tens of thousands of lives, and set out the must-have “capability requirements” to mitigate the risks to the country, as well as the potential damage of not doing so."
Full article here-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...virus-pandemic
And it wasn't a random thought bubble or a sarcastic joke, as Trump is now claiming. This guy really does believe the last person he spoke to, if that person happens to be on his side. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mp-coronavirusQuote:
Originally Posted by Laphroaig
What was the name of that novel -Death Comes for the Archbishop? I guess this is the bootleg version, Death Comes From the Archbishop...!