I am. My party "won", but we got the non-victory we deserved, due to our shitty campaign. Though I want a soft-Brexit, as i was a remainer. As for hung parliament, a little sex can lighten any mood.Quote:
Originally Posted by flabbybody
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I am. My party "won", but we got the non-victory we deserved, due to our shitty campaign. Though I want a soft-Brexit, as i was a remainer. As for hung parliament, a little sex can lighten any mood.Quote:
Originally Posted by flabbybody
Fuck My Life!
Seriously?
After everything that trout said about Corbyn, *she's* getting into bed with the DUP?
She may not be an angel, Flabbybody, but I think we can all agree she is hung...!Quote:
Originally Posted by flabbybody
Attachment 1013111
That's all we need, our own version of Donald Trump! Do us all a favour!Quote:
Originally Posted by holzz
Some reflections:
1) The polls dismissed the 'youth vote' but it was crucial in some constituencies, like mine, like Sheffield, and like Canterbury which has been Tory since 1918 and is now Labour, but not just because of university students who want to be relieved of debt. Young people between 18-28 who are not students but working, and who are or want to get married cannot afford to buy an apartment let alone a house, they are often in low to medium incomes which do not give them enough to save, and many -the majority?- who grew up as citizens of the EU believe they were robbed of their future when so many older people voted to take the UK out of the EU. They were also fascinated and energized by the Corbyn campaign, and turned off by the dreary monotony of the Tories.
2) So the polls ignored both a key voting bloc, but also the social media they use was not factored in to predictions, so credit to ITV last night as they had a 'Media Hub' which reported on the responses from social media through the night and often from abroad. Crucially, given the hysterical abuse that was levelled at Corbyn by the Daily Mail and the Murdoch press like The Sun- does this mean their power has been eclipsed? Compare them to the problems Murdoch is having at Fox News in the US. And, was this aspect of elections an innovation that elected Barack Obama in 2008 but which few other politicians outside the US have taken notice of?
3) We had comfortable Tory-Labour governments from 1979 to 2010, so the financial crash of 2008 must be seen as a watershed moment that shattered the stability of the two party system -the Tories were unable to govern alone in 2010, and only scraped through with a majority of 12 in 2015 and are now the largest party but with no overall majority; yet small parties do feature as either coalition partners or voting supporters, and in the case of the DUP May would need every Tory MP and every DUP MP to vote to get her legislation through. I suspect we will have another election by October. Pundits are saying we have returned to the Tory-Labour two party system, but formal or loose coalitions have been essential to government since 2010.
4) It has been said Labour cannot be elected with a left-wing programme and it failed last night, but the 2017 Manifesto was not as left-wing as the 1945 manifesto and the intriguing question to which there is no answer is, with the same degree of positive enthusiasm would a different leader have won Labour a majority?
5) What is going on in the Tory party? Twice in two years their leader has gambled the house on a vote convinced the result would leave them secure, and twice they have been humiliated. It is not just the hubris of winning elections, perhaps it is the reliance on focus groups and think tanks rather than real people that has detached such politicians from the real world in which they might find the views they think everyone shares with them does not exist, if they ever bothered to actually walk around town and talk to the people.
6) For all the desire for certainty and stability the Conservatives have always been vulnerable to destructive splits which are caused by arguments about the role of the State and of Free Markets. The party tore itself apart over the Corn Laws in the 1840s, it tore itself apart over Tariff Reform between 1903-1906, and it is has been shredding itself over the EU since 1972 and the negotiations over Brexit could be the cause of a major convulsion in the party, particularly because the hard Brexiteers see their cherished dream of smashing the EU and living in a Free Market world being undermined by their own leader. History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce. The third time, it may just be nasty, brutish and short (thanks to Hegel, Marx and Hobbes for those quotes).
May won't last 5 years, it's an impossibility! If there's another General Election this year, Corbyn will get a landslide especially if the opponent is Boris Johnson. A lot of people didn't vote Corbyn because the Media said he couldn't win. If it wasn't for some of our friends "North of the border", Corbyn may of got in. This is an amazing result for the Labour Party & will silence many of their critics, of which they were many!
At long last; We now have a choice again between two different Parties, the far right, renamed "Centre right" by Murdoch & co. & the Left.
With Br-exit talks opening very soon I wouldn't want to be Mr's May, woman's a glutton for punishment of which I have no sympathy.
Peejaye is the irony not in the fact that even with their increased share of the vote, neither Labour nor the Tories could produce a majority out of it? I am not arguing for PR because we rejected that a few years ago and it would make the situation worse not better, but for all their support, we are left with the fact that we are more divided as a country than we have been for years, and it shows in the results of the election. Thatcher and Blair received huge endorsements from the public, will we ever see that level of support again?
I know we see things differently Stavros but people are fed up with "The Establishment", the media can blame who they like, young people, old people, I'm not bothered. May had a shocking campaign, full of arrogance and contempt for ordinary people. We've had enough of it! As Nigel Farage said "Corbyn sounded Human" & people like that. You couldn't find two individuals further apart than May & Corbyn.
Only hope for the Torys is David Davies taking over but I won't be putting my money on any of them.
Don't blame the people, blame "The Establishment".
Actually, I think there is an answer to that question. It's a categoric no. A different leader would not have won Labour a better result than the one they have. Don't ask me what *it* is, but Corbyn has *It*, X, whatever you want to call it. As mad as it seems, people like him! :shrugQuote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
I understand it was an enormous shortfall from expectations for May, but if everyone concedes May ran a terrible campaign, and Corbyn cannot muster a majority, does that mean the votes are not there? The logic would seem that there is no path to victory for Labour if the best candidate could not win against someone who did not campaign.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jericho
Yes, May ran a terrible campaign, the worst I ever remember (granted, that's not really saying much)! But, from the very start, to the very finish, Corbyn was vilified in the press.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
How much does that equal out?
I honestly don't know.
If I take your post with Peejaye's about 'the establishment' then I see the points, and there was a sharp contrast in tone between the campaigns as well as most but not all of the content. Crucially I think that the agenda of state intervention that we thought had been made redundant by years or Thatcherism has been successfully revived, but I also think that since 2008 a large part of it is shaped by that 'British' sense of fairness, that people are not so much bothered by rich people as the widening gap between rich and poor and the fact that the middle has been squeezed so that people who maybe once were at least a degree or two over the poverty line feel too close to it now, or are under it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jericho
The problem with the campaign for me, is that it was exciting theatre, a show, but offered people policies that cannot be delivered at the level or with the success desired. I sometimes wonder if these people ever stand back and look at the state of the economy today, something that was barely discussed in the election, quite apart from what the economy could look like in ten years time. I concede that for all I know the UK might flourish outside the EU, but I doubt it for at least ten years because I don't see how the UK can adjust to leaving a 40-year old relationship with all its entanglements without suffering in the short to medium term. Those ten years could be the last best ten years of my life, a wasted ten years for an 18 or 20 year old with no guarantee that things will get better, a lost ten years for people who should be at their peak and achieving things in their 40s and 50s they can only hope they will get to do in their 50s and 60s.
Then there is the level of hypocrisy from a party that was responsible for the 'regulation lite' which enabled the banking system to borrow itself into infinity as if the day would never come when a lender asked for his money back, a party that failed utterly to make change the housing sector to stop it growing out of the reach of small-income earners, and a party that presided over an expansion of our apartheid education sector, when it could have made changes to make it more equal and relevant to the generation emerging from childhood. There was not one discussion of curriculum development in this election, but it is the most important aspect of schooling other than funding, just as there was not a single discussion of the impact technology has had and will continue to have on the world of work, the creation of jobs and wealth, the complex problem of communications beyond state control and so on. And if this is such a different party under Corbyn, what is the reasoning behind Trident and a defence strategy that could be written in the Conservative Party's central office? It may have been a campaign of hope, but where was, what was the vision, and was it more a dream than reality?
Labour tailored its campaign to operate in its comfort zone, and fair play to them for that, but they want to win elections rather than go into the details of what happens when they win, and don't want to be accountable for what they did in the past, unless they can cherry pick the juicy bits and let the rotten ones stay on the vine. And let's also be honest that Labour's campaign looked good because the Conservative campaign was so bad. It might not be bad next time, but if Labour has re-established itself as a credible party of government, the next election may not produce a result much different from the one we have now.
And who knows for sure, but given the challenges of Brexit, we may need a 'government of national unity' to get through it. And if 80% of the electorate choose either Labour or Conservative MPs, would that not be the logical democratic outcome?
An interesting fact I was texted last night;
Jeremy Corbyn was only 2,227 votes from being in No.10 Downing Street.
Difference in votes in the marginals!
Supporters of the "Far right" should be very concerned, we are coming to get you! :shock:
There is a danger in only isolating what you can improve upon and not realizing the other side can make changes too. If Jeremy can get 2227 more votes, then why can't the Conservative party run a more effective candidate and consolidate more support? I'm not saying this to play devil's advocate or antagonize Jeremy...without question he stunningly exceeded expectations and nearly won in a campaign he was expected to flop in, but it's very tough to identify whether the campaign was more a referendum on May's popularity or Corbyn's.Quote:
Originally Posted by peejaye
I think a lot of columnists have written columns acknowledging that they underestimated Corbyn's appeal. Perhaps he has broader likability than a lot of people recognized, but are you sure he's the only ONE to represent your party? The only reason I say this is because you are seeing the fact that he surpassed expectations as a moral victory, but it's actual victories that establish a mandate to govern.
Come on Peejaye, you know we don't elect on the popular vote here, we elect MPs to represent a place, and that is the seat that counts in the Commons. And Labour lost in marginals it might have won if -well, someone else was leader? What was remarkable about the 1997 victory was the fact that Labour won seats in the south-east that were supposed to be safe Tory bolt-holes as well as in Scotland, and it is the spread of seats that a party needs to win and claim to represent the whole country.Quote:
Originally Posted by peejaye
The irony of all this is that if we had Proportional Representation UKIP could have been in the coalition government of 2010-2015, but even without it, we have the DUP supporting the government, if not in a formal coalition, in an informal arrangement, and let's face it, this is not the old Ulster Unionist Party that took the Tory whip from 1921-1973, but the religious extremists who want to restore the death penalty, outlaw abortion, and think LGBTQIAPN/B are an abomination. It is as crazy as Israel where a secular party governs with the support of relgious extremists who can barely scrape together 4% of the vote. And it won't last long.
Yes; I know all that Stavros. Biggest surprises for me on the night were Canterbury going Labour & I almost fell off the sofa when Middlesbrough South & Cleveland went Tory! Not sure but maybe the North York Moors falls into this category& towns like Stokesley?
I just thought the 2,227 was an interesting fact.
I see the scapegoats are falling, Mr's Mays campaign advisors biting the dust! Anyone bar her; Well, at least for now. ;)
So how do the Tory voters here feel about the government being held to ransom by the DUP? A party which thinks gay sex is an abomination and should be made illegal?
You may well be correct about the Tory revival in Scotland preventing Corbyn from becoming Prime Minister. However, Ruth Davidson is one of the few to come out of this election with her reputation enhanced. Her recent statements, in response to the Tory/DUP coalition, that her commitment to LGBT rights comes before her party have only reinforced that. For the first time ever, we may be seeing an honourable Tory politician.Quote:
Originally Posted by peejaye
As a footnote, Labours cause in Scotland was not helped by the constant bickering between Kezia Dugdale and Corbyn. Remember, she backed Owen Smith in the Labour leadership contest. Who knows how the election might have gone differently, if she'd towed the party (ie Corbyn) line, but labour badly shot themselves in the foot in Scotland. Much as the main Tory campaign was woeful, Labour in Scotland was just as bad. In the wake of the election result, she's now done a U-turn of her own after a recent statement appeared to give support to Corbyn.
The "smart money" could be on Ruth Davidson to become the next Tory leader. Personally I'd like to see Boris Johnson become leader as to bury them for the foreseeable future!
Yet again, as your post indicates, the election was won or lost in Scotland, and I wonder if the mini-revival of the Labour vote had more to do with hostility to the SNP than the 'Corbyn effect'? I am not surprised however because Ruth Davidson appears to have all the best attributes of a party leader, albeit in Scotland rather than the UK and I don't know but suspect she has the collegiate approach which brings her colleagues together in discussion about policy and strategy, rather than the tight-knit circle of advisers that has been the form with May, Cameron and before them, Blair. It is ironic that the same protest against complacent government that was part of the Tories failure in England was part of the loss of seats for the SNP in Scotland, but also underlines how important Scotland is for the rest of the UK, but whether or not we are 'Better Together' in the long run I do not know. It certainly highlights the perils of Referendums.Quote:
Originally Posted by Laphroaig
And is it not also an interesting position for the UK to be in: apart from Jeremy Corbyn and whoever is leading UKIP at the moment all the political parties are led by women -In the UK, Wales, Scotland (and three times over -Scottish Labour, Scottish Tories, the SNP), Northern Ireland and also the Greens, although Caroline Lucas is now a co-leader. Weren't we told the world would be a better place if more women were in charge?
The word "Thatcher" is better whispered than spoken where I come from & most places north of Watford I think?
Author of the great divided society we still live in today after 30 years!:claps
For posterity;Quote:
Originally Posted by peejaye
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jericho
What about these ones?Quote:
Originally Posted by peejaye
I thought this was the most reasonable and graceful response to the election defeat. More of this and they can regroup.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
https://twitter.com/TomLondon6/status/1207827604822208513?s=20
You really want to understand Labour, you open up the 2,500 profiles that liked this tweet, fully knowing it wasn't a parody tweet but sounded like it.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan