US Elections 2020

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Originally Posted by broncofan

A recent study by Columbia University conducted by epidemiologists concluded as much. I'll link it if you don't find the rest of my argument convincing but logic should tell you the same thing.

The U.S has 4% of the world's population and 20% of the covid deaths. If the U.S. had its proportionate share of deaths then it would have 4% of the world's deaths. That would be 48,000 deaths (1.2 million times 4%) instead of 232,000 deaths. 232,000 minus 48,000 equals 184,000 deaths above its proportionate share.

The third thing I would say is that the United States is ranked 10th worst in deaths per capita out of 193 UN member countries. Do you not think being ranked 183rd out of 193 is bad? 183rd out of 193 is not good, it is not average, it is poor. And as I say below, per capita numbers should favor neither large nor small countries, though epidemiologists think they slightly favor larger countries.

Early on epidemiologists believed per capita numbers favor more populous countries because they have to be overwhelmed in more regions before their numbers are bad whereas a small, densely populated country can have very bad numbers per capita with one outbreak. So, the U.S. has the most deaths overall and the 10th most per capita.

As the wealthiest country in the world, one that can institute health measures and provide relief to the public, the U.S. should have done at least an average job per capita. An average job would have seen 184,000 fewer deaths.

As for the health measures, it's kind of shocking to me that you're still mentioning travel bans. They can be helpful but the country was seeded all over the place and spread takes place from within. Once a country has community spread, distancing, masking, and testing along with consistent public health messaging prevents further spread.

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There's more I can say about some of the issues you raise in your post such as the role of testing in identifying cases and whether deaths are properly attributed but I decided not to since they're kind of peripheral given the subject of this thread. If we had less testing, we'd have the same number of covid deaths (or more because we'd have prevented spread less effectively) but a higher case fatality rate. Excess deaths data also indicates that deaths are not being improperly attributed to covid. And if you want me to explain why I think Trump has not achieved an average public health outcome I could but it should be fairly obvious given the dozens and dozens of false statements he's made during a national emergency that have endangered people. It's been exasperating to follow.

The President's mantra, but one that does not soothe...

"Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media. They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over. Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people."

Maybe someone should tell him he will still be responsible for it until January. Another scary thought.

Fauci says 2021 may see the virus brought under control, but does not see a return to normal until 2021-2022-

"America’s top public health official on infectious diseases, Anthony Fauci, has warned that everyday life is unlikely to resume until late 2021 or into 2022, while right now the coronavirus pandemic is getting “worse and worse”.

I regret to say that I think he is right. But, as this is the worst virual challenge to public health for 100 years, it was never going to be a sideshow.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-news-updates

This is a useful article on how the polls compare to last time, what went wrong with polling and how it was interpreted in 2016, and what has changed since then.
https://www.vox.com/21538156/biden-p...rump-2020-2016

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Originally Posted by broncofan

As the wealthiest country in the world, one that can institute health measures and provide relief to the public, the U.S. should have done at least an average job per capita. An average job would have seen 184,000 fewer deaths.

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The US also has a smaller share of elderly people in its population, compared to Europe. As COVID mortality is much higher for the elderly, that implies it should have a much lower death rate if the quality of response had been about the same. Instead, the US death rate per million is higher than only two European countries (Belgium and Spain).

You can also compare the US to a fairly similar country next door. Canada's death rate is 265 per million, compared to 703 per million for the US. If you had the same death rate as Canada there would have been 145,000 fewer deaths.

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Originally Posted by filghy2

This is a useful article on how the polls compare to last time, what went wrong with polling and how it was interpreted in 2016, and what has changed since then.
https://www.vox.com/21538156/biden-p...rump-2020-2016

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Thanks. I read it and found it helpful. The one concern I would like Yglesias to allay is about the counting of mail in and absentee ballots. Wisconsin has ruled that it is no longer sufficient to simply have your mail in ballot postmarked by election day, they need to arrive that day. Republicans in Pennsylvania brought the same case but the Court was deadlocked at 4-4 and they may not re-litigate it. But there is the potential for a substantial number of votes to be invalidated.

In at least one county in Pennsylvania they say they are not going to count mail in ballots until November 4. The effect of this is that election day votes will be tallied on November 3rd and those that arrived by mail will then be tallied the next day. There is a likely partisan split with mail in favoring Democrats since we are less likely to think Covid is a hoax. If Trump is leading he may try to claim victory before all of the votes are tallied.

One thing I can say that is good is that Democrats have been extremely vigilant in all of these battles and done everything possible to mobilize the base and fight suppression. When the Wisconsin decision came down, there was an enormous fund-raising drive and the money was used to text and call people to encourage them to turn in their ballots in person. Within two days something like 60% of the outstanding ballots had been turned in. So I have no complaints about our efforts but the unusual circumstances with the pandemic, with the composition of the Supreme Court, and with the intent of the GOP to suppress Democratic vote is a greater concern in this election.

That said, if people really look at the electoral college last election and the margins of victory for Trump, it does appear to have been a perfect storm. That doesn't mean it can't happen again because a ton of states are within striking distance for Trump. Here's hoping we get a little bit of good fortune and the election is called for Biden early, there is no violence, there is a peaceful transition, and some semblance of normal governance is restored.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

The President's mantra, but one that does not soothe...

"Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media. They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over. Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people."

Maybe someone should tell him he will still be responsible for it until January. Another scary thought.

Fauci says 2021 may see the virus brought under control, but does not see a return to normal until 2021-2022-

"America’s top public health official on infectious diseases, Anthony Fauci, has warned that everyday life is unlikely to resume until late 2021 or into 2022, while right now the coronavirus pandemic is getting “worse and worse”.

I regret to say that I think he is right. But, as this is the worst virual challenge to public health for 100 years, it was never going to be a sideshow.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-news-updates

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Agree,someone should tell Donald Trump that he will still be responsible for the CO-VID Pandemic until January ,and no matter how times he keeps claiming that the US is rounding the corner,or it's going to away soon,the pandemic isn't going to end until there is a safe and effective vaccine that works and everyone is vaccinated. and Dr. Anthony Fauci absolutely right when he said that everyday life is unlikely to resume until late 2021 or into 2022.

Is it legal for Nigel Farage to endorse the President at a public rally? Should the Election law not ban any US citizen from seeking, and/or receiving help from a foreign national? And how did Farage get into the country anyway?

I just voted, in and out in less than 10 minutes.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

I just voted, in and out in less than 10 minutes.

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One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind...?

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

I just voted, in and out in less than 10 minutes.

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That's the norm in Australia. The longest I've ever waited was around 20 minutes, when I chose to vote around the peak time on election day. That is as it should be in any civilised country.