2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

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Originally Posted by Stavros

I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help: election results in November -is it just the President who requires certification from Congress -what about the Congressional Representatives and Senators? Could the outgoing members delay that certification on the basis their results were 'irregular' and in need of investigation? One of the weaknesses in this whole 'steal' thing is that it appears only the Presidential vote has been rigged, even though the ballot paper with the names of the Presidential candidates also has all the other offices being voted on -so why have all those offices not been challenged?

I yield back.

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There is currently a Democratic majority in the Senate and a very slight Republican majority in the House. If the Republicans lose this majority in November, the scenario in the piece can't happen.

From the opinion piece:

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What happens if, in the wake of the elections, the House’s election-denying Republicans find that they can retain their majority in the next Congress only by denying certification of Democratic candidates who have won by close margins, and do so?

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It's a considerable "if."

It is a bit obscure, but there is the possibility that on January 3rd when the new House convenes, the right of a member to be sworn in can be challenged. I think this has happened on a few occasions in the past with multi-member districts which I think no longer exist, and I also assume that at least until Trump arrived on the scene, challenging a member on the basis of a claim their election was 'fraudulent' or 'rigged' was never argued, as indeed it had not happened with Presidents, allowing for the Bush-Gore problem to be a procedural rather than a political one.

Thus-

"Any Member-elect may challenge the right of any other Member-elect to be sworn when the Speaker directs the Members-elect to rise to take
the oath of office.... The fact
that the challenging party has not himself been sworn is no bar to his
right to invoke this procedure. ... He must base his
challenge either on his own responsibility as a Member-elect or on
specified facts or documents. ...Such challenges
are generally directed at a single Member-elect, but in several
instances the challenge has been directed against an entire State
delegation. ...
The authority to challenge the right of a Member-elect to be sworn is
based on the Constitution, which designates the House as the sole
judge of the elections, returns, and qualifications of Members. U.S.
Const. art. I, Sec. 5, cl. 1. Generally, see Election of Members."
House Practice: A Guide to the Rules, Precedents and Procedures of the House - Chapter 33. Oaths (govinfo.gov)

(I have edited out the references which are in the original link).

I guess at this stage it all depends on that new House and whether or not the Trumpits decide to make mischief as part of a broader campaign to rescue Trump from oblivion, assuming, as I do, that he loses again but they refuse to accept the loss. It is all speculation, but at the same time we are told these people are 'organizing' around the likelihood Trump loses and that they decide to go either 'nuclear' with their protest, or in Steve Bannon's term, 'Stalingrad Every Day'.

The additional point being that if the GOP were to be the largest party on January 3rd, some, possibly enough new representatives would be foot soldiers for Trump who have no respect for the norms -after all, though Trump indicated in 2016 he might not respect the result, I don't think a lot of people thought he would do what he did in 2020, so the potential for a major disruption is at least there.

Meanwhile, from the aptly named 'war room' via a book on the 2022 mid-terms, this nugget, which underlines the extent to which Bannon has tried to learn from Lenin and Gramsci-

"The book goes on to recall an interview Steve Bannon did with Oath Keeper Dan Schultz on "War Room," in Feb. 2021, promoting the necessity of taking over a political party to be successful. Bannon understood that third parties don't work, Arnsdorf said.
“Essentially, what we have to do is, we conservatives have to take over one of the two major political parties. Our party is, the one we’ve been using, is the Republican Party. The problem is we’re not in control of it," Schultz told Bannon."
Trump’s anger and embarrassment after 2022 midterm failures revealed in new book (msn.com)

It has been a feature of British politics for some time, mostly in the form of Trotskyists -the 'pragmatists' who have abandoned a Proletarian Revolution for the Parliamentary Road to Socialism- who see the Labour Party as their best hope of giving the 'working class' a revolutionary form of leadership, it was certainly behind the Momentum leadership that promoted Jeremy Corbyn to the leadership of the party, I know because several of the Trotskyists who were in my constituency party in the 1980s were still there, not having changed their commitment or views in over 40 years. It was a lesser case with members of UKIP that immigrated to the Conservative Party and backed Boris Johnson as their Brexit champion.

And in both cases, failures, as in the US the TEA Party faction, and so on.

I don't think the average person supports extreme politics in most situations, though now and then they might opt for it, and then regret it. A disaster in Israel, possibly a disaster in the US for the Republicans.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help

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Was that a Freudian slip?

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Originally Posted by Stavros

The additional point being that if the GOP were to be the largest party on January 3rd, some, possibly enough new representatives would be foot soldiers for Trump who have no respect for the norms -after all, though Trump indicated in 2016 he might not respect the result, I don't think a lot of people thought he would do what he did in 2020, so the potential for a major disruption is at least there.

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We should not forget that 63% of Republican Reps voted against certifying Biden's election the day after Trump incited his supporters to storm the Congress. The percentage willing to defy Trump's wishes would almost certainly be lower now.

I think the scenario to worry about most is that Republican-controlled states refuse to certify the results if Biden wins. In that case it could come down to a state-based vote of the HoR (contingent election). It's possible that Republicans could still control the majority of state delegations even if they lose their HoR majority.

But I'm sure Trump and his followers will be desperate enough to try anything if he loses again.

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Originally Posted by filghy2

But I'm sure Trump and his followers will be desperate enough to try anything if he loses again.

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Stalingrad, Reichstag, 22 October 1922...if history repeats itself, and the first was tragedy and the second farce, what is the third?

I do a lot of ogling, especially on the internet. Oh the joys of retirement.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Is it Biden who doesn't want the debates, or Trump? Depending on the dates, he might be on Tv the day after a 'difficult' day in Court. He talks loudly, but often ducks the heavy duty stuff.

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Follow-up.

Major media organizations urge Biden and Trump to debate


abcnews.go.com/Politics/major-media-organizations-urge-biden-trump-debate/story?id=109169895

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Follow-up.

Major media organizations urge Biden and Trump to debate


abcnews.go.com/Politics/major-media-organizations-urge-biden-trump-debate/story?id=109169895

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Will they have to take drugs tests first? In truth I cannot see any purpose to a debate, given that there is no debate, just two people speaking over each other trying to score points. Given that Trump doesn't believe in the democratic process anyway, and his backers are, as I write, concocting the means to secure the electoral college regardless of the popular vote, the tv debate is a waste of time and money. An hour of Trump whining about the world against him, Biden trying to convince people the economy is doing well, and so on.

Better to have them grilled on the detail, which I think Biden, as a seasoned politician can handle, whereas Trump when challenged -if they can find someone with really tough questions- reacts angrily and without reason. But as we know this already, maybe even this is not worth the effort.

Would you watch a tv debate between Biden and Trump?

Maybe Harris and the GOP VP nominee would make better tv?

Get Ready to Rumble, America, Kari sees it

"“They’re going to come after us with everything. That’s why the next six months is going to be intense. And we need to strap on our — let’s see. What do we want to strap on?” Lake asked as some in the crowd chuckled.“We’re going to strap on our, our seat belt. We’re going to put on our helmet or your Kari Lake ball cap. We are going to put on the armor of God. And maybe strap on a Glock on the side of us just in case.”"
Kari Lake frantically urges supporters to 'strap on a Glock' (azcentral.com)

Good Glock and Good Night!

"Addressing conservative LGBTQ+ supporters at the sold-out fundraiser, Melania Trump said money raised that night -- more than $1 million, according to organizers -- would go toward an effort to deploy resources to key swing states in educating voters about conservative LGBTQ+ causes and delivering pro-Trump messages among gay and lesbian communities, said Bill White, one of the co-hosts and a longtime friend of Donald Trump."
Melania Trump announces initiative to woo gay voters during fundraiser, organizer says - ABC News (go.com)

Hmmm..conserve what? I am under the impression a second Trump term would take away the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans. Or is this the first scene in a messy divorce?

I didn't hear from Dozing Don, 'I approve this message'.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

"Addressing conservative LGBTQ+ supporters at the sold-out fundraiser, Melania Trump said money raised that night -- more than $1 million, according to organizers -- would go toward an effort to deploy resources to key swing states in educating voters about conservative LGBTQ+ causes and delivering pro-Trump messages among gay and lesbian communities, said Bill White, one of the co-hosts and a longtime friend of Donald Trump."
Melania Trump announces initiative to woo gay voters during fundraiser, organizer says - ABC News (go.com)

Hmmm..conserve what? I am under the impression a second Trump term would take away the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans. Or is this the first scene in a messy divorce?

I didn't hear from Dozing Don, 'I approve this message'.

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He'll gladly accept money from anyone foolish enough to give it to him.

Something puzzles me about the US election system. Am I right in thinking that a ballot paper is a single sheet of paper with all of the candidates standing for election for multiple posts: that is: President, Senator, Congressional Representative, Attorney General and other public offices?

If so, when Trump says votes for him were flipped for Biden, doesn't this mean all the other votes were also flipped? I don't understand the technology here. One voter may choose Biden over Trump, but the Republican Senator over the Democrat. Or vice versa with Trump and a Democrat. How can each ballot paper be flipped to ensure one name on the sheet is changed, but none of, or any of the others?

I have also been told that many voters just choose one party for all of the available offices, rather than choose each one as they prefer.

I don't know so I am asking for clarification. In the UK we separate ballot papers: last week I had two ballot papers: one for a local council seat, the other for the region's Police and Crime Commissioner and each one had its own colour: yellow and green. I don't understand why in the US you cannot have a separate ballot paper for the Presidential vote, and give them their own colour if people are confused.

Voting varies by state and by county within the state. In my county, we use paper ballots and we fill in our votes for individual candidates with a pen, and the ballot is then run through a scanner. There is no straight-ticket option on my county's ballots.

Trump's nonsense is self-centered, as always. He doesn't care about any other offices. He's claiming votes for president were flipped via computer, and also that ballot boxes were stuffed with phony ballots including votes for Biden.

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

Voting varies by state and by county within the state. In my county, we use paper ballots and we fill in our votes for individual candidates with a pen, and the ballot is then run through a scanner. There is no straight-ticket option on my county's ballots.

Trump's nonsense is self-centered, as always. He doesn't care about any other offices. He's claiming votes for president were flipped via computer, and also that ballot boxes were stuffed with phony ballots including votes for Biden.

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Thanks. I once read some ballot papers are very large and they can be inserted into a machine, like a casino fruit machine, and you can select 'All' and pull a level or do something else for some votes, don't know if that is what happens or how it works.

Why a scanner? Here the ballot papers are taken to the count, and manually separated into piles, but that is possible when there is only one office up for grabs. I was an election organizer for the Labour Party many many years ago and sat across from the staff as they put the ballot papers on separate piles -for, against, and spoiled (usually an X in the space between the candidate names, sometimes abusive words). Once counted the candidates can then inspect the votes and ask for recounts or for the spoiled ballot to be awarded to them, eg if the X is half in half out of their box.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Thanks. I once read some ballot papers are very large and they can be inserted into a machine, like a casino fruit machine, and you can select 'All' and pull a level or do something else for some votes, don't know if that is what happens or how it works.

Why a scanner? Here the ballot papers are taken to the count, and manually separated into piles, but that is possible when there is only one office up for grabs. I was an election organizer for the Labour Party many many years ago and sat across from the staff as they put the ballot papers on separate piles -for, against, and spoiled (usually an X in the space between the candidate names, sometimes abusive words). Once counted the candidates can then inspect the votes and ask for recounts or for the spoiled ballot to be awarded to them, eg if the X is half in half out of their box.

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Scanner gives them a quick computer tally, but there is a paper backup if a manual recount is required. It's supposedly the best method. Some places are all electronic.

I remember in the '70s going with my mother to vote, and in that case it was a large machine where you moved individual toggles to select candidates, and then you pulled a lever to register the whole ballot.

"Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp signed legislation that allows more options to challenge election results while also restricting the options for voting.The Republican governor signed bills into law that expand the opportunities to challenge a voter's eligibility, makes scanned ballots publicly available online, reduces the number of voting machines and requires election workers to be U.S. citizens...
...Senate Bill 189 establishes new "probable cause" criteria to allow residents to challenge voter qualifications, including evidence a person has died, voted in another election, obtained a homestead exemption on their taxes or registered to vote from a non-residential address.
They may also be removed from the voter rolls within 45 days of an election, which seems to violate the 90-day limit set by the National Voter Registration Act of 1993."
'A gift to MAGA election deniers': Critics fume at new Georgia voting law (msn.com)

Although, historically and up to the present, the primary aim has been to stop Black people voting, by removing them from the roll, and making sure polling stations in Black majority areas are closed on polling day for 'Health and Safety' reasons. But these proposals could also be used by Democrats in Republican areas, not least because most election fraud that did take place in 2020 was by pro-Trump voters. The potential for an election to be challenged by both sides and in every County would delay a final tally of the vote, or even make it impossible.

But - "makes scanned ballots publicly available online" -all of them? What happened to the law on privacy? Will the Bill pass before November?

Time to take the election process away from partisan State government, and create a Federal Election Commission that does it all: set the boundaries, organize the elections, and so on.

The numbers don't lie: Trump's share of the vote in his own party is lower than it was in 2020 -this suggests to me there is no way he can win the popular vote, and that he can only win the Electoral College through some form of manipulation in swing states or through the sort of mechanisms noted in the Georgia Bill above.

"Nikki Haley’s “zombie campaign” has picked up more 20 per cent of the vote in Indiana’s Republican primary, in a warning sign for Donald Trump."
Unexpected warning sign for Trump in Indiana GOP primary (yahoo.com)

"Republicans floated as possible running mates include Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and J.D. Vance of Ohio, as well as Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem — even after Noem was pilloried for describing in a new book how she killed her aggressive hunting dog. None of them is seen as a likely vessel for winning over Haley’s staunchest fans."
Republicans Urge Trump To Pick Running Mate Who Can Win Nikki Haley Voters (yahoo.com)

Anyone else in the frame in the Veepstakes? Could it be someone who is not and has not been in public office?

I have just read -I didn't know this before- that the 12th Amendment to the Constitution states that the candidates for President and Vice-President cannot be from the same State, as in living there (as opposed to being born there I assume),

Guess this means 'Little' Marco Rubio hasn't got a chance, so why is he trying? Or could it be he has no idea what the Constitution says- or doesn't care?
Rubio 'pushing hard' to be Trump's VP – but he could make impeachment more enticing to GOP (msn.com)

The GOP no longer cares about the Constitution. But I imagine either Trump or Rubio could switch their official state of residence. Trump obviously owns property in at least New York and Florida.

Given that your ID says you live there, what, if anything has Rubio done for the people of Florida he represents in the Senate? Does he have a record to stand on that looks good?

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Given that your ID says you live there, what, if anything has Rubio done for the people of Florida he represents in the Senate? Does he have a record to stand on that looks good?

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I've never voted for him. He is a defense hawk, though. I can't name specific accomplishments, but he's done some things I haven't hated, unlike our other senator and former governor Rick Scott.

So Paul Manafort will not be 'helping' to organize the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee. And yet, as a convicted criminal he is surely and exactly the kind of man Trump wants around him. I believe no other US politician, let alone a former President has been associated with so many convicted criminals. CNN lists 11, Reuters the same people but also organizations. Neither of them goes further back to cite Felix Sater, Trump's business partner in Manhattan and a convicted racketeer and Russian mafia mobster, or the earlier cases of money laundering in New Jersey casinos.

If this was a Democrat, he would have been forced out of the race and they would be looking for another candidate. Or has the US so obviously given up on standard in public life that Trump's indifference to the Law makes him immune to the charges that woul destroy anyone else? Think about it, it is staggering how crooked the man is, and that nobody cares.

Trump’s casino was a money laundering concern shortly after it opened | CNN Politics

Paul Manafort backs away from supporting role with Republican National Convention following media scrutiny (yahoo.com)

11 Trump associates have now been charged with crimes. 11! | CNN Politics

What Trump allies have faced criminal charges? | Reuters

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Or has the US so obviously given up on standard in public life that Trump's indifference to the Law makes him immune to the charges that woul destroy anyone else? Think about it, it is staggering how crooked the man is, and that nobody cares.

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The country hasn't, but the GOP is literally owned by Trump now.

But the point is, if Trump is the Republican Party and the Party is Trump, all of its candidates need to be asked about their links to criminals and criminal behaviour in the past as a guide to the present and the future -I can't imagine any media outlet not hammering the Democrat who compared himself to 'Alphonse' Capone or now even Hannibal Lecter. I mean when it comes to Knock Me Over statements, Trump is a gift that cannot stop giving, so why is everyone so passive with him? But then i guess if even people who were appalled by Jan 6 when it happened, who now weasel their way to excuse it, are part of the problem. Like JD Vance, you have to wonder what he uses for brains, but his shameless manipulation of the truth might yet guarantee him a top job, though I still think Trump cannot win as so far all the evidence is that he has lost votes from Republicans.

"“But, look, my view on Donald Trump, I have been very clear on this, is, look, I was wrong about him. I didn’t think he was going to be a good president, Dana, and I was very, very proud to be proven wrong. It’s one of the reasons why I’m working so hard to get him elected,” he replied on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Vance had made comments against Trump’s bid in 2016, prompting Ohio Republicans in 2022 to urge Trump not to endorse the Ohio Republican. Vance ended up clinching Trump’s support and winning his election."
Vance says he was ‘wrong’ in past remarks on Trump (yahoo.com)

Fareed Zakaria looks at the polling and it doesn't look good for Biden, regardless of his record on the economy. But the other polls he has not factored in are the Primaries, where Republicans have been voting for Nikki Haley. If, on the ground, Trump in numerical terms is losing votes, how can he possible win, other than through some manipulation of the Electoral College? It beggars belief that people think Trump is more competent than Biden, but again, the devil may be in the detail, not least because Trump -and his supporters- will use any means necessary to win, or to claim victory.

Fareed breaks down Trump’s chances of retaking the White House (yahoo.com)

Again: the polls say one thing, analysis of the Caucus and Primaries another- the Republican voters who will probably not vote for Biden, but won't vote for Trump either: just stay at home. If Trump cannot win new voters -and I have read that 'Latino' voters in Florida are a potential asset- Trump will yet again lose the popular vote.

The sleaze factor is yet to play out -Clinton was mercilessly attacked over the Lewinsky affair, but no surprise that the same media outlets take a more lenient view with Trump no matter now many women he bedded and paid off.

"An AP VoteCast found a significant percentage of Republican voters in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries would be so dissatisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee that they wouldn’t vote for him in November.Specifically, 20 percent of Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, 34 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire and 25 percent of GOP primary voters in South Carolina said they were so dissatisfied with Trump that they would not vote for him in the general election."
GOP senators see warning signs for Trump after embarrassing week (yahoo.com)

Trump is definitely strong among Latino voters in Florida. Ask Marco Rubio.

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

Trump is definitely strong among Latino voters in Florida. Ask Marco Rubio.

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I can't think of any answer I want from Marco Rubio, so I will pass on the questions. I do wonder why it is that Trump demonizes immigrants -the Chinese are the latest victims of his odious Lecter-lite fantasy- when most immigrants are small-c conservatives who don't want hand-outs but prove they can make it on their own without state aid, and for that reason would normally find the Republican Party more congenial than the Democrats, accepting a broad brush with regard to attitudes and party Brands.

I also wonder if the Cuban connection in Florida has shaped the ex-Cuban families attitudes if they are convinced the Democrats are 'soft' on Cuba. That said, of all the people to support, Trump? He is not, and never has been a Republican. He is the polar opposite of the immigrant who works night and day to make it in America, but I guess some States in the US would vote for Hannibal Lecter any day, rather than a Democrat. It means the 'swing states' will make or break the 2024 election, barring some seismic change in US politics -but I say this not knowing how the House and Senate result will pan out.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-p...port-for-trump

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-p...port-for-trump

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Yes, but. Will they still think Trump is their guy when he fulfils his promise to expel 20 million 'Latinos' or 'Hispanics' if he steals the White House? Like documentation matters? When the Republican Guard marches Jesus and Maria to the bus at gunpoint for their trip south of the border, down Mexico way, and they squeal 'we been here 20 years, we got papers!' you can just hear the response from Sgt Wayne: 'Whatever Haysoos, you're done here'.

He wants their votes. He doesn't want them.

Trump has promised an immigration crackdown if reelected. That could backfire on the economy | CNN Business

Will Donald Trump deport 20 million illegal immigrants if re-elected? Know about his plans in detail - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him.

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him.

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Agree,and they're going to be in for a very harsh reality if the MAGA King gets elected.

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

The Hispanic voters who support him think he only intends to deport people who are here illegally. Obviously if they thought it would affect them personally, they wouldn't support him.

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a) no papers, no rights. b) how does any government round up and deport 20 million people, and how long does it take? I think it is really just a campaign promise destined to go the way of the wall that Mexico was going to pay for.

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Originally Posted by savannahguy

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

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Try the 'Free State of Florida' where not so long ago a 74 year old married a 14 year old girl and it was legal, but no his name wasn't Trump. Florida is paradise for Paedophiles. Curious isn't it? Donald Trump was mates with Jeffrey Epstein all those years, and not only did he know that Epstein was having sex with underage girls, he claims to have broken off their friendship when Epstein hit on the teenage daughter of someone else he knew. And when did Trump inform Law Enforcement of Epstein's crimes?

And now Epstein sleeps with the fishes.

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Originally Posted by savannahguy

poor libtard pedos .. we are coming for you

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I usually leave this forum alone for you dummies to argue.
But that gets a ban.
For life.

Is there any purpose in the so-called Presidential Debates? They are not debates in the real sense of the term. More likely they will just be two men attacking each other as Trump has no policies other than tax cuts and immigration control, and will reject any claim Biden's term has been good for the US economy. Anyway the Trump camp already say the debates are rigged.

Is there anything in the US that isn't rigged?

People will actually watch the debates and it will influence their choice. And it's a tradition.

I wonder if this film will help or not...

Donald Trump movie depicting rise to power in 1980s sold for UK audience ahead of Cannes premiere (yahoo.com)