2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

I understand changing demography explains why Trump lost Georgia -the voters in the greater Atlanta area are different from what they were 25 years ago, maybe even 5 or ten -just as younger and potentially or actually more liberal voters have been moving from states like California to Texas in the suburban areas of cities like Houston, Dallas, and so on in other states. This may not affect elections where district boundaries are rigged to favour Republicans, but maybe sheer force of numbers means that some State Senate and House seats are more volatile than once they were.

Thus, the question is re the Federal elections -could Trump win the White House and lose both the Senate and the House? There are too many conflicting stats out there for me to sort out - Rafael 'Ted' Cruz seems to be vulnerable in Texas. Controversies in New York suggest Democrats could be vulnerable there, mostly I guess in NYC but maybe the wider state (?).

Anyone with some thoughts on this?

Ok, so some Labour Party members have paid their own way to campaign for Harris -have Nigel Farage and Liz Truss been in the US campaigning for Trump? Yep. But Labour gets the law suit from court crazy Trump. No surprises that in one part of his 'message' he refers to a country called 'Britian', while this must be worthy of dumbass comment of the year award

"“This past week marked the 243 anniversary of the surrender of British forces at the Battle of Yorktown, a military victory that ensured that the United States would be politically independent of Great Britian”"
Trump files extraordinary complaint claiming election meddling by UK Labour party | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

"“The far-left Labour Party has inspired Kamala’s dangerously liberal policies and rhetoric".
Trump campaign files complaint over ‘foreign interference’ by ‘far-left’ Labour Party in US election | The Independent

Labour far left?

What?!

Here's another reason to be sceptical that the recent trend in polls shows that Trump is winning. There has been an increase in polling by Republican-leaning firms, whose results tend to systematically favour Trump. This may be an attempt to game the polling averages.
https://newrepublic.com/article/1874...averages-trump

The polling aggregators argue that they make adjustments for the quality of polls, and so the averages should not be distorted significantly. https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-rep...sters-flooding
It's hard to tell whether they are doing it right. We also don't know how much polls influence voting behaviour, although even a small effect could make a difference in a tight election.

The underlying problem is that the way the media reports polling often exaggerates the real significance of recent results. Anyone who understands polling should know that a change of 1 percentage point (the average movement in Trump's favour over recent weeks) is not statistically significant.

I assume this is a trivial question -why does Trump always end his rallies with YMCA?

And though Kamala Harris and others can condemn what they see as the Fascism in Donald Trump's view of the world and America, what if that Fascism is what Americans want? Maybe not the majority, but a worrying number of people seem to think raw power is more likely to achieve something than diplomacy or the rule of law. And there is no point telling them to observe Syria, Russia, or Israel, as they don't care about things they don't know about.

Is this the last gasp of liberal democracy?

North Carolina was so badly affected by Hurricane Helene the citizens may not be able to vote, but don't worry it doesn't matter, because there is now a proposal that the State award all its Electoral College votes to Trump before the votes are counted.

"At the Talbot County Lincoln Reagan Dinner on Thursday, Oct. 24, the chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus [Andy Harris], 67, asserted that it "makes a lot of sense" for North Carolina's Republican-controlled legislature to directly decide the winner, given the potential barriers to voting that some areas are facing amid the Hurricane Helene recovery efforts."

In agreement is someone, Ivan Reiklin, described as a 'political operative' -he is a one time associate of Michael Flynn- who has also been tipped to be Trump's Commissar of Retribution, should Trump be President, thus

"He has reportedly compiled a "Deep State Target List" of 350 individuals he considers enemies, and has promised to appoint "Constitutional sheriffs" to go after those enemies if Trump is elected and offer them "the maximum punishment for treason." (The Department of Justice says that treason can be punishable by death.)"
Far-Right House Leader Calls on North Carolina to Preemptively Give Donald Trump Its Electoral Votes

Presumably the traitors will be hanged in public on the Ellipse in DC?

I don't understand why some Muslim 'leaders' in Michigan have opted for Trump over Harris, while others remain loyal to Harris. As far as I know, the only President who has ever supported Palestinian claims and criticized Israel is Carter, but not when he was President.
Trump endorsed by several Muslim & Arab American leaders at campaign rally in Novi

I am sure most Arab Americans know what the US position is on Israel, so it should make no difference when it comes to choosing a candidate, in addition to which when Trump has been 'pro-Arab' it has been with the Arab dictators in the Arabian peninsula who have been of financial benefit to him and the Kushner family, such as the 'Abraham Accords', a business deal that consolidated the Kushner family investments in Israel and the West Bank while protecting them from non-existent Arab attacks, while Trump is said to have pocketed $20 million when he sold nuclear technology stuff to the Saudi Dictatorship.

That said, I think that Harris will win the Popular Vote, with or without the Arab vote, though what this does for the electoral college in Michigan I don't know. Moreover, we know from daily reports that the Trump cult has been preparing for the disruption of the count in numerous and swing States where, if the result doesn't go their way, legal challenges will delay a conclusive tally in the College, and possibly, as in 2020, take the matter as far as it can go in the Courts, maybe even the Supreme Court.

My predictions in the past have been wrong, so there!

If tax is to be an election issue at this late stage, it may be due to Trump 'floating' the idea of abolishing Federal income tax. I can't recall if this is in Project 2025, but it is not new as he himself claims in suggesting the USA return to the policies of the early 1800s, music to the ears of Justice Thomas (sponsored by Harlan Crow).
Trump floats ending the federal income tax. Here’s what that would mean

Here is the irony -when Trump boasts about putting onto the Court the Justices who helped repeal Roe vs Wade, it was to 'return' or give States the power to decide -ie, the Federal Govt becomes irrelevant, which also means his attempt to roll back the most unpopular policy in years, is also irrelevant, because he has removed the policy from the President's portfolio.

Thus, the logic of ending Federal Income Tax fits into the State's Autonomy argument, which gives individual States the right to decide if or what taxes they impose on their citizens, and crucially, the Federal Govt can do nothing about it. Moreover, I don't see how the President can preside over the abolition of Federal Income Tax but impose Tariffs on imports from abroad, as this must surely be for individual States to decide.

In effect, Trump does not want Federal Govt, but he has not said how the US military is to be funded -which takes us back to that moment after the first Revolutionary War, when George Washington wanted to disband the Continental Army because it could only be sustained by a Federal Income Tax. Had the British not made another attempt to stop the Revolution and Washington's career with it, who knows?

So I guess in response to Harris, the Trump slogan for the last week of campaigning is

We're Going Back!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1850625175068332131

So shameful. It really sounds like a bonafide hate rally. Sent in my ballot for Kamala. Wait and see.

in more news....this is mainstream in the Republican party https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP/s...57453471334551

speaks for itself. so rotten.