Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by binneu

Could it be possible that the vaxxined dont get testet as much as the unvaxxinated?

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Not testing enough makes the mortality rate appear higher not lower. The denominator is number of proven cases.

In the example I gave, you have a comparison of 100,000 people who are unvaccinated and 100,000 people who are vaccinated. Of the first group, 190 end up in the hospital. Of the second group 19 end up in the hospital. It has nothing to do with testing. People end up in the hospital because they can't breathe and usually need oxygen at that point.

When people in their 20s and 30s get fever, shortness of breath, and a cough and then die three weeks later from lung damage testing is besides the point. But if you didn't get the previous point about excess mortality and the fact that there are simply more deaths from all causes worldwide (almost as if there's some additional cause of death out there) then you're never going to get it.

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Originally Posted by binneu

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Maybe they would have died anyway... also without this "pandemic"?

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The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus a pandemic on 11 March 2020.

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Why should I vaccinate myself against something I don't think is dangerous.

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As far as I know nobody is forcing you to get vaccinated, I got the impression that you have chosen not to receive the vaccine but you seem insecure about that. Your own factors such as age and underlying health conditions, which vaccine you would prefer etc. probably affect your decision. If you’ve never heard someone struggling to stop coughing incessantly for two weeks as I have as they fought it you’re probably delightfully oblivious of the whole thing.

It is the transmissibility of the virus which contributes to the danger presented by it and being vaccinated does reduce transmissibility. I was not only glad to be vaccinated for my own health but in the knowledge that by doing so I was helping others.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Not testing enough makes the mortality rate appear higher not lower. The denominator is number of proven cases.

In the example I gave, you have a comparison of 100,000 people who are unvaccinated and 100,000 people who are vaccinated. Of the first group, 190 end up in the hospital. Of the second group 19 end up in the hospital. It has nothing to do with testing. People end up in the hospital because they can't breathe and usually need oxygen at that point.

When people in their 20s and 30s get fever, shortness of breath, and a cough and then die three weeks later from lung damage testing is besides the point. But if you didn't get the previous point about excess mortality and the fact that there are simply more deaths from all causes worldwide (almost as if there's some additional cause of death out there) then you're never going to get it.

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Do you have the source of this data pls?

I just can say this makes no sense to me.
At the higher ages (the people who have the risk to die) there is a vaccination quote of over 90% and the effectivity of the vaccine is 90% (according to your data)... but the number of people who died on covid is now hight as it was in August/September 2020?
(google corona israel and you get the jhu graph)

Can you explain this pls?

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Originally Posted by rodinuk

[COLOR=#202124][FONT=arial]The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus a pandemic on 11 March 2020.



As far as I know nobody is forcing you to get vaccinated, I got the impression that you have chosen not to receive the vaccine but you seem insecure about that. Your own factors such as age and underlying health conditions, which vaccine you would prefer etc. probably affect your decision. If you’ve never heard someone struggling to stop coughing incessantly for two weeks as I have as they fought it you’re probably delightfully oblivious of the whole thing.

It is the transmissibility of the virus which contributes to the danger presented by it and being vaccinated does reduce transmissibility. I was not only glad to be vaccinated for my own health but in the knowledge that by doing so I was helping others.

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Did you understand my point?
People reach same age in Germany... with or without corona!
So how deadly is this you think if it doesn't change anything in your life expectancy?

No they dont force me NOW... but they will thats my bet!

And sorry... it's not sure if the transmissibility is changed by the vaccination at all.
And again I don't see any deadly virus... so the whole topic is kind of senseless to me.

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Originally Posted by binneu

Do you have the source of this data pls?

I just can say this makes no sense to me.
At the higher ages (the people who have the risk to die) there is a vaccination quote of over 90% and the effectivity of the vaccine is 90% (according to your data)... but the number of people who died on covid is now hight as it was in August/September 2020?
(google corona israel and you get the jhu graph)

Can you explain this pls?

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This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

Take the chart I provided you for severe cases which should be similar to the efficacy numbers for death. Someone who is 75 and vaccinated has a similar chance of getting severe disease as someone who is 40 and unvaccinated. Why is this so? Because age is the biggest risk factor for severe disease and although the 75 year old's chance of getting severe disease is 10 times lower as a result of getting vaccinated it's still higher than an immune naive 40 year old's. If Israel's elderly population had not been vaccinated before the delta wave they would be facing a much more catastrophic situation.

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Originally Posted by binneu

No i just explained why the average age of death didnt change... coz they died in the same age as always.
Maybe they would have died anyway... also without this "pandemic"?
So if people get 82 years old, with or without covid... how can you say covid is dangerous if nothing changed actually?

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You don't understand basic mathematical logic. Even if Covid killed one-third of the population, like the Black Death, it would not reduce the average age of death unless the average age for Covid deaths was lower than the average age for other deaths, which is not the case. Would you claim that was no big deal, just because the age composition of deaths was the same?

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Originally Posted by binneu

Again... I question the test and the assessment of the danger. That's why all the vaccination dissections are relatively pointless.
Why should I vaccinate myself against something I don't think is dangerous.

Since the test isn't really any good, you can't determine mortality.

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I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, but do you have any actual evidence for this claim that the test is useless? No test is 100% accurate, but anyway uncertainty can cut both ways (making it more or less deadly).

All this talk of death to me misses one of the crucial aspects of Covid-19- sickness leading to hospitalisation and its long term impact on the individual’s health.

I don’t know what the problem is with vaccines, they are free and they work, but I do see a political stunt that is intended to undermine the purpose of government, not to intervene in your personal life, but to offer the citizen security against a public health threat.

But in countries fortunate enough to have vaccination campaigns, the crisis is not one of mortality but infection and its treatment. In those states in the US that have been led by disciples of Taliban Trump, the hospital sector is reeling from a surge of infections, either of those adults not vaccinated, or of children and young people who have not been vaccinated as a matter of public policy. Elsewhere, as in the UK and Israel, it is the Delta variant that is causing concern and a rise in cases.

Covid-19 is not just a matter of death, but of life and death where the quality of life is diminished and may be for months following a patient’s discharge from hospital. Hence the importance of vaccination to prevent the illness from causing harm.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

Take the chart I provided you for severe cases which should be similar to the efficacy numbers for death. Someone who is 75 and vaccinated has a similar chance of getting severe disease as someone who is 40 and unvaccinated. Why is this so? Because age is the biggest risk factor for severe disease and although the 75 year old's chance of getting severe disease is 10 times lower as a result of getting vaccinated it's still higher than an immune naive 40 year old's. If Israel's elderly population had not been vaccinated before the delta wave they would be facing a much more catastrophic situation.

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Ok ok ok... lets make it short and simple.

You want to tell me that vaccination protects from a severe course (90% at older ages) but it does not protect from dying?

(let's clarify this and then talk about the validity of the test and the origin of the hospitalization and death figures... i would rather do it the other way around but ok)

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Originally Posted by broncofan

This is the result of something called Simpson's paradox (you can look it up and explain why Derek Jeter's batting average was lower than David Justice's for each of two seasons but higher when combined). https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

Israel has a very young population and most of its unvaccinated people are younger. If you aggregate the numbers you are comparing 30 year olds who are unvaccinated with 80 year olds who are. Yet 80 year olds should be compared to 80 year olds to determine efficacy because age is such a markedly strong risk factor.

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I had never heard of Simpson's paradox before. It only seems like a paradox until you realise that the overall average depends on the number of bats in each year. Jeter had a lot of at-bats in his best year and few in his worst year; for Justice it was the opposite.

The issue that is explained so well in your linked article is also known as endogeneity bias. If two variables of interest (vaccination and hospitalisation/death rates) and strongly related to a third variable (age), then the data will give a misleading picture unless the third variable is controlled for.

But it appears that the likelihood of our friend understanding this is roughly zero.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

All this talk of death to me misses one of the crucial aspects of Covid-19- sickness leading to hospitalisation and its long term impact on the individual’s health.

I don’t know what the problem is with vaccines, they are free and they work, but I do see a political stunt that is intended to undermine the purpose of government, not to intervene in your personal life, but to offer the citizen security against a public health threat.

But in countries fortunate enough to have vaccination campaigns, the crisis is not one of mortality but infection and its treatment. In those states in the US that have been led by disciples of Taliban Trump, the hospital sector is reeling from a surge of infections, either of those adults not vaccinated, or of children and young people who have not been vaccinated as a matter of public policy. Elsewhere, as in the UK and Israel, it is the Delta variant that is causing concern and a rise in cases.

Covid-19 is not just a matter of death, but of life and death where the quality of life is diminished and may be for months following a patient’s discharge from hospital. Hence the importance of vaccination to prevent the illness from causing harm.

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Coz the mainstream media and politics are talking about death counts.
Thats why we dicuss this topic here i would say.

And the vaccination is by no means free... I pay for it with my taxes! And how good it works is obviously not that easy. I say we dont even have a dangerous pandemic... so how you wanna evaluate the effectiveness?

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