US Elections 2020

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Originally Posted by filghy2

Incidentally, they give Trump a 38% chance of winning at least one state he didn't win last time, so you might be taking that possibility too lightly.

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Thanks. I have to do my homework a bit on that.

The good news is that even without other big surprises for Dems like Ohio, Florida, or Texas there is good polling in Arizona and North Carolina. So if GOP flips a small state, we might pick up 11 electoral votes in Arizona or 15 in NC. Not that GOP flipping states doesn't matter bc we could easily lose these two AND the GOP flips one.

Looking at the last election numbers and 538 polling averages it looks like GOP has the best chance in Minnesota (10 votes), New Hampshire (4), and Nevada (6). Colorado (9) is sometimes somewhat close but Biden has a 10 point lead in polls right now. Virginia (13) often is too but Biden has close to an 11 point lead. The scenario I thought of with only PA, MI, and WI flipping was a narrow enough margin that even NH flipping would bring the Dem from 273 to 269. I could be missing something since I'm eyeballing it.

I know the Democratic party is working very hard in Pennsylvania right now. In a system like ours where voter participation is pretty low, get out the vote efforts often are more effective than efforts targeting undecideds or disaffected Republicans. But I've heard that PACs are focused on both right now. Lots can happen and so many ways this election can go, so we'll see.

Democrat Tulsi Gabbard Says Netflix is Complicit in Child Sex Trafficking for 'Child Porn' Film 'Cuties'
https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabba...icking-1531474

Would make a much better POTUS than Biden IMHO....

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Originally Posted by Stavros

You mean, like Vernon Robinson?

"Robinson holds a number of views which many would consider outrageous – “The UN is possibly the greatest abuser of children on the planet”; the World Health Organization “subscribes to a far-left ideology”; Sweden has a high suicide rate because “everything is free except the citizens”; the abortion rate in the US is a “hidden holocaust” of “black babies”; too many progressive-leaning sportspeople these days are “Lenin’s useful idiots,” transgender-inclusive policies will stop black girls from getting track scholarships to college; people born to illegal immigrants in the US shouldn’t get citizenship; people are being fired from their jobs in Dallas because they don’t speak Spanish; “The Democrats want open borders because they need new voters” – but it’s worth noting that most are in line with what the president has said himself. Indeed, Robinson was doing shock tactic conservatism long before Trump: in 2006, one of his campaign ads for Congress attacked feminism, same-sex marriage and “aliens” who “come across our unguarded Mexican border by the millions”. In the same cycle, he made waves by climbing that if his opponent had his way, “America would be nothing but one big fiesta for illegal immigrants and homosexuals”. Little wonder he has embraced Trump’s “big, beautiful wall” with unbridled enthusiasm."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...n-b420765.html

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No.
I mean folks like Kimberly Klacik, Joe Collins, and a few others.

Now I can go tit-for-tat with you bring up Black Democrats that hold a number of outrageous views as well if you'd like......

Both parties have ridiculous individuals within - and hopefully, you're smart enough to see that.....

But just by mentioning Vernon Robinson, you've proved my point that the Black community is not monolithic in thought and I thank you for that!

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Originally Posted by MrFanti

Democrat Tulsi Gabbard Says Netflix is Complicit in Child Sex Trafficking for 'Child Porn' Film 'Cuties'
https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabba...icking-1531474

Would make a much better POTUS than Biden IMHO....

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She would indeed, if she had the courage to tackle that legal thing you have in he US called Child Marriage- set aside the volume of 'cute kids' on American tv in soaps, gymnastics (ban all under-18 year-olds from competitions), dance documentaries and so on, and focus less on Netflix and more on your own corrupt Union where this is concerned-

"Only two US states – Delaware and New Jersey – have set the marriage age floor at 18 with no exceptions. Twelve states do not have any set age limit, and six allow girls under the minimum age to get married if they are pregnant. In those states the laws “are weaker than child marriage laws in countries like Afghanistan, Honduras and Malawi”, Girls Not Brides CEO Dr Faith Mwangi-Powell says."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9467121.html

"In 87% of child marriages, the minor is a girl; 86% of the time she is marrying a legal adult. Based on these numbers, advocates argue that the vast majority of marriages with minors would otherwise constitute statutory rape."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/child-m...bsn-originals/

Yeah, go for a French film most people will never see, and ignore the problem that mght be happeining next door or across the street. Are any of the Candidates opposed to chilld marriage in the USA?

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Originally Posted by broncofan

And I don't delude myself into thinking policy differences ever feel civil or anything less than life-changing but there is a qualitative difference in what the GOP has become and I wonder if our system's lack of sensitivity to the popular vote has reduced accountability enough to cause it.

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Yes, policy differences are one thing, but when a party is condoning blatant lying, law-breaking and hate-mongering it has clearly crossed a line. I think you are right about the effect of electoral bias - if the Republican Party needed a majority of votes to gain power then just pandering to their base would no longer be a winning strategy and they would be forced to appeal more to the middle ground.

This is just an afterthought but at least one completely sociopathic move of Trump's would be cut off without an electoral college. This crap where he plays red state blue state and tries to deny federal funding and assistance to people in states he has no chance of winning would be less appealing without an electoral college. He knows he'll lose California, but if it would matter whether he loses it by 4 or 5 million votes it might encourage him to put out the fires that are ravaging the west coast. What would he do if he wins a second term and doesn't have to worry at all about winning elections?

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Originally Posted by MrFanti

But just by mentioning Vernon Robinson, you've proved my point that the Black community is not monolithic in thought and I thank you for that!

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Nobody's arguing that point. Not one single person said the Black community is monolithic or implied it.

Here is a fact for you since an you seem only able to repeat yourself and don't have much interest in the election generally: an overwhelming majority of the Black community will vote for the Democratic Party in November. In fact, of minority communities the division here is about as lopsided as it for any. Compare this to Cuban-Americans. Compare to Mexican-Americans. Compare to Asian-Americans. Compare to Jewish-Americans. Compare to LGBT. No minority community is monolithic and no vote is ever unanimous. 90% is a fairly large number though. I wasn't going to include Muslim-Americans only because I assumed the percentage would be similarly lopsided but in the first article I found it said 13% of Muslims vote Republican. Anyhow, there you go. No community is monolithic.

You put a Trump sign on your lawn it gets burned down.
You wear a MAGA hat you are attacked or get fired.

And you all seriously believe in polling numbers? As if these people tell someone calling them the truth...

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Originally Posted by Teydyn

You put a Trump sign on your lawn it gets burned down.
You wear a MAGA hat you are attacked or get fired.

And you all seriously believe in polling numbers? As if these people tell someone calling them the truth...

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You can read the posts above to see what I think about polls. They're not perfect and they may miss some Trump voters but I don't have anything other than data to go on.

There are certainly people who don't want to admit they support Trump but I'm not sure polls don't try to assure participants their privacy is somewhat protected. Nevertheless it might be a factor.

Two questions:

1) What happens to people in Oregon and California who have lost their homes in the dreadful fire storms? Can they vote if they no longer have the address on the register because it burned to the ground and they are in temporary accommodatiion elsewhere?

2) I read that the NYPD Union has declared it supports the President. Is this legal? In the UK police officers can vote, but they are not allowed to make any political statements or be seen supporting a political party or movement. I also wonder how this makes people in a Precinct feel knowing their local cops support a politician they don't approve of, and in particular when/if there are issues of trust between the citizens and the police which through the public support for a President who now belives in 'retribution', make them fear for their lives?

Would it not make more sense for the Police to be re-named the Republican Guard?