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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
And your alternative seems to be anyone but Biden, which is incredibly naive. Biden got elected because he was essentially the ultimate compromise Democrat, and he pretty much remains that.
Nice straw man, but that isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that if Biden pulled out some viable alternative would most likely emerge. I don't know why it's so hard to understand that what people say and do when Biden is running doesn't necessarily tell us what they would do if he pulled out. Is it news to you that politicians often change their tune when circumstances change?
Anyway, this is hypothetical as he's not going to pull out.
You don't seem to want to acknowledge this, Biden has many more negatives this time. His age is obviously a bigger negative than 4 years ago. He's the incumbent so, rightly or wrongly, he's copping blame for everything that's gone wrong on his watch. Last time he had the advantage of running against the incumbent in the midst of a recession and mass Covid deaths.
Let's not forget that it was a narrow win in electoral college terms. If 43,000 votes in three states had gone the other way Trump would be President. If that had happened, would you be saying now that Biden was the only viable candidate?
If you want to invoke the mid-term result, let me remind you that Democracts actually lost their HoR majority (and lost the popular vote by 2.8%). It only looks like a success compared to expectations of a red wave. It's not clear whether this would translate into an electoral college majority.
Also, don't forget that polling error can go both ways. The polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020.
I know that Trump has many negatives, but so does Biden. I'm not saying Biden can't win, but it looks like 50:50 at best, maybe 45:55. It looks like an election that will depend on which side's former voters are most disillusioned.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
You don't seem to want to acknowledge this, Biden has many more negatives this time. His age is obviously a bigger negative than 4 years ago. He's the incumbent so, rightly or wrongly, he's copping blame for everything that's gone wrong on his watch. Last time he had the advantage of running against the incumbent in the midst of a recession and mass Covid deaths.
...
I know that Trump has many negatives, but so does Biden. I'm not saying Biden can't win, but it looks like 50:50 at best, maybe 45:55. It looks like an election that will depend on which side's former voters are most disillusioned.
You're not saying anything everyone doesn't know. I never said Biden was a lock. My comments were about the hypothetical alternative. Reality is what matters. Absent a viable alternative to Biden on the Democratic ticket, hypothetical desires mean nothing. We're into election year now. The primary process has begun. It's too late to mount a new campaign.
It doesn't matter if voters don't want a Biden/Trump rematch. Reality is that's what they're likely to get. We have to deal with reality.
I'm not arguing that Biden will coast to easy victory because everyone loves him and age doesn't matter. I'm saying if it's Biden or Trump, people need to vote for the one who isn't promising to be a dictator (even if he's old).
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Two contrasting views of the New Hampshire result, both in the Brexit paper the Telegraph-
Gingrich as you would expect doesn't much care for the nuances of the vote.
Trump will be the next President. Get over it (yahoo.com)
The other digs into the stats to suggest it is not all over for the Comet, eg
"The results in New Hampshire’s GOP primary on Tuesday night seem to support that and exposed the limits to Mr Trump’s appeal.With more than 90 per cent of votes counted, Mr Trump had won 54.8 per cent to Ms Haley’s 43.2 per cent.
But Ms Haley won self-described moderate voters by a three-to-one margin, according to a CNN exit poll. She won a large majority of voters opposed to a national abortion ban. She also won among college-educated voters, exit polls suggest. All groups that could be crucial in November.
Most worrying of all for Mr Trump, almost half of Republican primary voters - 44 per cent - said the former president would not be fit to re-enter the Oval Office if he is convicted of a crime. Ms Haley won 84 per cent of those voters.
The 52-year-old argues she can build on those numbers, replicating the broad coalition of support she has assembled in the next few states to vote."
Nikki Haley has exposed Trump's weaknesses (yahoo.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Forty-eight more states have to weigh in yet. It's really sad that the primary process could be over after the first two rounds.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
The other digs into the stats to suggest it is not all over for the Comet
As I said, you are an incorrigible wishful thinker. New Hampshire is a relatively educated liberal state, and they have open primaries. According to reports, half of those who voted in the Republican primary were not registered Republicans. If Nikki Haley couldn't win there, she has no chance elsewhere.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man...ll-2024-01-23/
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
These are the current betting odds on the Presidency:
Trump 43.6%
Biden 33%
Michelle Obama 7%
Newsom 4.8%
Haley 3.8%
Kennedy 3.4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...024/president/
Interesting that 23% of betting money is for someone other than Trump or Biden.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Interesting that 23% of betting money is for someone other than Trump or Biden.
Have fun getting 270 electoral votes with 23%.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
More analyis of the New Hamphire primaries here - some bad news for everyone, it seems. Trump - lack of support from independents and moderates; Haley - lack of support from conservatives; Biden - lack of enthusiasm from Democrats.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...lysis-00137715
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Heather Cox Richardson is a historian who offers non-hysterical political commentary. Here's her latest:
https://heathercoxrichardson.substac...anuary-24-2024
Excerpt:
Quote:
Curiously, what happened to Trump in New Hampshire was what, before the election, pundits suggested could and maybe should happen to President Joe Biden: a challenger would show that he was weak going into the 2024 election.
Instead, despite dirty-trickster robocalls in a fake Biden voice telling Democratic voters not to show up vote for Biden, he appears to be on track to win 65% of the vote as a write-in candidate—he wasn’t on the ballot—while Representative Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, who were on the ballot, together appear to have garnered just under 25%.
On Monday, Miranda Nazzaro of The Hill reported that the creator of ChatGPT banned a super PAC backing Phillips for misusing AI for political purposes. Billionaire Bill Ackman, who has been in the news lately for his fight against diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, attacks on former Harvard president Claudine Gay, and threats to media outlets that pointed out plagiarism in his wife’s doctoral dissertation, donated $1 million to Phillips’s super PAC.
There was other good news for the Biden camp today, too. Sign-ups for the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have surged by 80% under Biden, with a record 21 million people enrolling this year. Trump has promised to get rid of the program, saying that “Obamacare Sucks!!!” and that he will replace it with something better, but neither now nor in his four years in office did he produce a plan.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
Your balanced commentator completely missed the rather important point that most of Nikki Haley's votes came from non-Republicans.
"I fall into the category of observers who see bad news: more than 45% of Republican primary voters—those most fervent about the party—chose someone other than Trump."
According to this article, 70% of Trump's voters were registered Republicans, but only 27% of Haley's. That implies Trump won around 75% of registered Republicans.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ll/ar-BB1hcmF3
On the Democrat side, the Biden write-in won 65% of the vote. I haven't seen any numbers on the share of non-registered Democrats, but it's not clear on the face of it that his was a more impressive result than Trump's, especially given Dean Phillips is a lower-profile candidate than Nikki Haley.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
On the Democrat side, the Biden write-in won 65% of the vote. I haven't seen any numbers on the share of non-registered Democrats, but it's not clear on the face of it that his was a more impressive result than Trump's, especially given Dean Phillips is a lower-profile candidate than Nikki Haley.
It's not impressive that someone who wasn't on the ballot won 65% of the vote? And there were even fake robocalls using his voice urging people not to vote?
OK.
Sorry, but Heather Cox Richardson has much better credentials regarding American politics than you do. I realize you feel compelled to argue about everything, but sometimes you're just silly.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
It's not impressive that someone who wasn't on the ballot won 65% of the vote?
How would anyone know whether 65% was impressive or not without a benchmark for comparison? Has there been any previous case of a write-in for an incumbent?
Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.
So why isn't Trump getting 80% of the vote so far?
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
So why isn't Trump getting 80% of the vote so far?
Trump is not the incumbent President. There's an element of truth in saying he effectively is to most Republicans, but it's an over-simplification to take it 100% literally.
100% of Democrat voters think Biden is the legitimately-elected President. It seems reasonable to think he should be getting over 80%, especially when his opponents are relative nobodies.
Around two-thirds of Republican voters apparently believe Trump really won the 2020 election. That still leaves one-third who don't see him as the incumbent. Hence, it's not an equivalent situation.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
TIt seems reasonable to think he should be getting over 80%, especially when his opponents are relative nobodies.
Not in a primary. Not in a general election. Eighty percent is an insanely high margin in any type of election. Have you ever witnessed a landslide of that magnitude in your country?
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
Not in a primary. Not in a general election. Eighty percent is an insanely high margin in any type of election. Have you ever witnessed a landslide of that magnitude in your country?
Obviously, I was talking about primaries where there's an incumbent President, not general elections.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Clinton in 1996 and Obama in 2012 both received 89% of the vote in the Democrat primaries. That seems like a benchmark for the future official primaries. If Biden can't get close to this it's probably not a good sign.
FYI
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_D...tial_primaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_D...tial_primaries
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
A more general point, and I have probably made it before, is that the party system in the US lends itself to these expensive campaigns, and doesn't even make sense when, as in New Hampshire, people who don't vote for one party can take part in choosing the candidate of another. They are going to have that choice in a formal election.
What strikes me then is that this process is a staggering waste of money, and is a form of duplication of the General Election before it takes place, and I think the time has come for Americans to ask if there is no other way for parties to choose their candidates.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
The modern US primary system only started after 1968, prompted by anti-war activists who were angry about the selection of Hubert Humphrey. Up to that time there were primaries in some states, but mostly the candidate was decided by party officials.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...cowan-00135381
Party democracy is good in theory, but the problem in practice is that few people join political parties these days and those who do are more likely to be zealous in their views. This often results in candidates who are too extreme.
A good system might be something like that used by the Australian Labour Party. They give a 50:50 weighting to votes of both the party MPs and party membership.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader...an_Labor_Party
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Thanks for the link. I think that in the end the question is -do people get the politicians they want, or get the politicians they deserve? I am not sure the answer is positive in either case! Politicians for the most part are people who want to be in public life, for whatever reason. I can see why a caucus or primary is one means of finding out if the people are interested, but why go through the process in effect, twice over? Whatever. Maybe the deeper question is whether or not more people not qualified for public office are seeking it, because they are corrupt, because they have extreme views, or maybe just lack the intelligence.
There have been statements of staggering unintelligence from British politicians -Dominic Raab when he was 'Brexit Secretary' expressed surprise at the importance of the Dover-Calais route for trade. When Theresa May appointed Karen Bradley (who?) as Northern Ireland Secretary Bradley admitted before going there she did not know the place was so sectarian that Unionists did not vote for Nationalists and Nationalists did not vote for Unionists. And she had responsibility for Government policy in the province!
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Intriguing book review. One wonders if people like Vance and Stafanik are ever going to produce the hard evidence to prove the 2020 election produced the wrong result, heaven knows Trump has failed to do so in 3 and a half years. Is it not time for these people to put up or shut up?
And can a State really just stop people voting?
How to Steal a Presidential Election review: Trump and the peril to come (yahoo.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
The link below is to a rather long article on the financial problems the Republican Party is going through, from the party in States exhausting their funds on pointless election recounts, to the more obvious one-way traffic of cash from the party to its supreme leader, Trump. Although some States are doing well, ag Florida, others may struggle to mount a campaign if all the money the party has goes to fund Trump's lawyers, while on some States, like Michigan, the Party seems to be at war with itself rather than the Democrats.
But the most interesting bit is the tv interview with Lara Trump, who may become part of the RNC leadership team. For when asked what the Party needs to do to be more competitive with the Democrats, in view of the results of the mid-terms, she does not mention a single policy, but is only concerned with voter registration, embracing early voting, and thus on the election procedures, as if there was not a long list of the priorities most Americans have. And then she makes it clear that the only priority is to elect Donald Trump as President.
But if the whole purpose of the Party is focused on one man, how can they secure the Senate and the House? If they cannot put together a set of coherent policies, be it on the Border/Immigration, the Cost of Living, Law and Order -issues that concern most people most of the time, they have only one mission, to please the supreme leader.
Let us hope this ends this year, it is tiring, like those in the UK with their 'Bring Boris Back' or the desperate attempt to re-habilitate Liz Truss. But when I look at the landscape of political choices around the world, it is not just the US that I find mired in confusion and with an alarming indifference to what an open Democracy is, and could be.
Anyway the link is here-
The Truth About Trump’s RNC Shakeup—and Why the GOP Will Suffer (yahoo.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
To add to the above, is this savage but accurate depiction of the Republican Party by a former party strategist, Stuart Stevens, concerned the party has made no effort to widen its electoral base, and is even irrelevant to most people's needs-
""A party led by a rapist that believes it can fix its problem with women by attacking Taylor Swift, with weird little creeps like Mike Johnson as a public face in Congress, that has no serious policy, that has decided to abandon decades of support for freedom in Europe to back a genocidal dictator, a party that is 85% white in a 59% white country, a party that has decided higher education is a gateway drug to Socialism, that believes public health policy should be set by random freaks on the internet and not doctors, a party that is still fighting cultural wars of gender politics the rest of America ended a decade ago, a party that has replaced American optimism with anger and fear of the future," he stated."
'A party led by a rapist': Ex-GOP strategist delivers brutal diagnosis for party's losses (msn.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
So far, an election of contradictions, as the article by Simon Tisdall linked below demonstrates: Americans concerned at the war in Gaza, and simultaneously weary of the US getting involved in foreign conflicts, while Trump plays to the Isolationist crowd who want an 'America First' agenda. So too, as the other poll shows, Biden's administration achieves more positive things than he gets credit for, while the man himself cannot rely on that success for a personal vote.
The danger is that the US sits out global conflict in the 2020s much as it did the 1920s, giving space for dictators to do what they want, with terrible consequences, as we can already see in Ukraine. There is still a long way to go before November, and maybe something dramatic will change the agenda: Trump and Biden both vulnerable -so who has the best Plan B?
The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular (yahoo.com)
The US as defender of democracy won’t win votes. Donald Trump gets it, but Joe Biden doesn’t | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
The sad fact is that there are no surprises that this man expresses these opinions and gets selected to run for high office. It is the measure of how far the Republican Party has vacated what used to be called the 'centre ground' of politics to occupy the outer space of offensiveness. We have extremists in the UK, but the most they get is a council seat somewhere no=one other than the locals has ever heard of, and are largely ineffective. And those who have climbed high, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, have fallen just as far.
Do Americans really want this?
"North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson revels in making offensive remarks – with a history that includes comparing abortion to slavery, quoting Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, and referring to LGBT+ people as “filth”."
He quoted Hitler. He called LGBT people ‘filth’. And now he could become North Carolina’s next governor | The Independent
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Hell to the no,most americans doesn't want someone who a homophobic,transphobic,right wing loving toxic pile of shit and sexist creep like Mark Robinson,who is Donald Trump 2.0 to be the next governor of North Carolina.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
Forty-eight more states have to weigh in yet. It's really sad that the primary process could be over after the first two rounds.
I also don't think its healthy for one's psyche. Whether it be an individual's or the nation's. I mean let's put this in perspective. Now that the primary process is indeed over after two rounds, that means both Biden and Trump will be running a general election campaign for the next 6 months.
So my thinking is going to be this. I'm going to put the 2024 Election out of mind as much as humanly possible, show up on Election day, vote for Biden, and hope he is doesn't expire in office. Or after 90 days, he has a change of heart and resigns from office.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
I also don't think its healthy for one's psyche. Whether it be an individual's or the nation's. I mean let's put this in perspective. Now that the primary process is indeed over after two rounds, that means both Biden and Trump will be running a general election campaign for the next 6 months.
So my thinking is going to be this. I'm going to put the 2024 Election out of mind as much as humanly possible, show up on Election day, vote for Biden, and hope he is doesn't expire in office. Or after 90 days, he has a change of heart and resigns from office.
So if there is a tv 'debate' between Biden and Trump you won't watch it? But will there be such a programme on tv? Could either one refuse to share a platform with the other?
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
After three and half years is it not time for Trump and the others to show proof that the 2020 election was rigged? Its like saying Elvis is not dead, but not being able to bring the guy in front of a camera to speak to the Nation.
And how can election rules differ not just from State to State, but in Counties?
"The experience of trying to vet the wild misinformation that shaped the Trump campaign’s perception of reality has left Block keen not just to speak out about the bogus premises used by his former employers to try and overturn the election. It’s also turned him into an advocate for reforming an election system whose complexities he believes can help provide fuel for such bogus conspiracy theories.
He points to dead voters — a frequent source of false claims about voter fraud — as an example.
“If you have the misfortune of dying before the Election Day, does your vote count or does it not count?” Block asks. “It depends on which state you live in and sometimes on which county you live in within a specific state. Shouldn’t this situation have the same outcome everywhere in the country?”"
Trump’s Voter Fraud Expert Shot Down His Campaign’s Election Lies (yahoo.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
So if there is a tv 'debate' between Biden and Trump you won't watch it? But will there be such a programme on tv? Could either one refuse to share a platform with the other?
No. I didn't watch any of the debates in 2020 either.
I think if there are debates, they most likely will be televised. But I think Biden is already laying down the groundwork for not participating in them.
It will be interesting to see though given what the Republican National convention will mostly look like, does any television network take an unprecedented step and not televise them. Or at very least, portions, if not all of Trump's acceptance speech.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
No. I didn't watch any of the debates in 2020 either.
I think if there are debates, they most likely will be televised. But I think Biden is already laying down the groundwork for not participating in them.
It will be interesting to see though given what the Republican National convention will mostly look like, does any television network take an unprecedented step and not televise them. Or at very least, portions, if not all of Trump's acceptance speech.
Is it Biden who doesn't want the debates, or Trump? Depending on the dates, he might be on Tv the day after a 'difficult' day in Court. He talks loudly, but often ducks the heavy duty stuff.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
This detailed article from Rolling Stone should give cause for concern to those who think the election in 2024 may not be won or lost by the people who vote, but those who count it -or have the power to certify or not certify, and who so far in previous elections have refused even when they are legally obliged to do so, but don't care about the law. At the very least, if they kick into action in November, it might not be January before there are definitive results after legal challenges, etc.
Can the Certification in Congress, and the date of the Inauguration be changed?
Election Deniers Are Taking Over Election Boards Around the Country (rollingstone.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
A new contender-
"A Texas man has legally changed his name to Literally Anybody Else and announced he is running for US president in the 2024 election."
Man changes name to Literally Anybody Else and announces US presidential run | Texas | The Guardian
Perhaps he will shortly publish his policy proposals titled 'There is nothing I can do to make things better'.
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MrFanti
Interesting....
Or scary? America, are you 'Locked and Loaded' in preparation for the 2024 election Debacle?
"The Trump campaign says it plans to change tactics from 2020 when Joe Biden beat the then-incumbent president by more than 7 million votes, and this time go on “offense” by having “soldiers” and “poll watchers” at polling places."
Trump campaign says it will deploy 'soldiers' to polling places (msn.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
This is where it gets scary. Maybe even abolish elections and just declare the sex offender and convicted fraudster Dear President for Eternity?
"...on January 6, 2025, what if the new Republican majority refuses to certify as president any Electoral College results from states that went for Biden by close margins — thereby ensuring that no candidate receives an Electoral College majority?Presto! The decision about who’s to be the next president is made on a state-by-state delegation vote — almost surely delivering it to Trump.£
How Trump could win even if he loses the popular vote AND the Electoral College | Opinion (msn.com)
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
This is where it gets scary. Maybe even abolish elections and just declare the sex offender and convicted fraudster Dear President for Eternity?
"...on January 6, 2025, what if the new Republican majority refuses to certify as president any Electoral College results from states that went for Biden by close margins — thereby ensuring that no candidate receives an Electoral College majority?Presto! The decision about who’s to be the next president is made on a state-by-state delegation vote — almost surely delivering it to Trump.£
How Trump could win even if he loses the popular vote AND the Electoral College | Opinion (msn.com)
What if there is no new Republican majority?
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Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
What if there is no new Republican majority?
I would have to go ogle the details unless you can help: election results in November -is it just the President who requires certification from Congress -what about the Congressional Representatives and Senators? Could the outgoing members delay that certification on the basis their results were 'irregular' and in need of investigation? One of the weaknesses in this whole 'steal' thing is that it appears only the Presidential vote has been rigged, even though the ballot paper with the names of the Presidential candidates also has all the other offices being voted on -so why have all those offices not been challenged?
I yield back.
