Covid-19 Politics

Here in NYC, despite New York recording record-low COVID-19 infection rates, there is still a ban on indoor dining and movie theaters are still not allowed to reopen. I understand the frustration of restaurant owners because they can never get a straight answer from either Gov. Cuomo or Mayor De Blasio on when indoor dining will be allowed. Its always "we will see" or "we don't have a plan for indoor dining to return at this time".

There is also the inconsistency when it comes to other businesses. Casinos have been allowed to reopen at reduced capacity. But there is also the inconsistency when it comes to location.

For those of you who are may not be familiar with NYC, the county of Nassau, Long Island borders the borough of Queens. Indoor dining has been allowed to return to Nassau County. It is a possible for a person to cross the border from Queens into Long Island to have a meal indoors, but not a vice a versa. That really doesn't make any sense.

Now the President has decided to way in with this tweet: “New York City must stop the Shutdown now,” “The Governor & Mayor are destroying the place!” “The Democrats will open up their states on November 4th, the day after the Election,” he wrote. “These shutdowns are ridiculous, and only being done to hurt the economy prior to the most important election, perhaps, in our history! #MAGA.”


I have never really paid attention to President Trump's tweets or buy into his conspiracy theories. But I think both Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio have to make a decision soon about when both indoor dining and movie theaters are going to be allowed to reopen. Especially the former because in a month or so, it will start getting physically uncomfortable to dine outdoors at night here in NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/w...ronavirus.html

The Oxford/Astrazeneca trial has been paused because one person who received the vaccine has developed transverse myelitis. It is considered a severe adverse reaction though I think people have gotten it from flu vaccines as well. Still, it's not good news. We'll have to see how rare it ends up being and how this person's case develops.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Here in NYC, despite New York recording record-low COVID-19 infection rates, there is still a ban on indoor dining and movie theaters are still not allowed to reopen. I understand the frustration of restaurant owners because they can never get a straight answer from either Gov. Cuomo or Mayor De Blasio on when indoor dining will be allowed. Its always "we will see" or "we don't have a plan for indoor dining to return at this time".

There is also the inconsistency when it comes to other businesses. Casinos have been allowed to reopen at reduced capacity. But there is also the inconsistency when it comes to location.

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Thanks for this insight, as there is in the UK a similar contradiction, or there was as yet again public health policy has changed with an announcement last night that gatherings of more than six will be banned-

"Amid concerns that the current rules are both widely misunderstood and too difficult for police to implement, Boris Johnson will hold a hastily-arranged Downing Street press conference on Wednesday to outline the new restrictions.
The dramatic change of approach by No 10 follows a sudden spike in the number of people being infected with the virus, with almost 8,500 positive tests being recorded in England in the last three days."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ned-in-england

But how has it come to this? Because the relaxation of physical distancing and allowing people to go abroad for holidays has happened too soon. The relaxation was made because the economy needed a boost, but it may be that the assumption that declining rates of infection would not be reversed, has become more a wild guess, though new infections do not appear yet to result in a new wave of fatalities. And just as it made no sense to have rules in Queen's which are not imposed on Long Island, so it was daft to have rules that allowed people to go the pub but not to see their grandparents, and when there is a pitiful lack of an effective test and tracing system in this country, the opportunity for Covid 19 to resurge has emerged. Moreover, it is not just the UK but the European continent too, and I assume tourism is a primary factor in this new wave.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...hs-pass-890000

What I think is also emerging that may become a serious problem, is the extent to which people may decide that Covid is going to kill a few people, make others sick, but that this is just tough -a Telegraph journalist, know for her toxic opinions, puts it thus:

"The powers of the wretched Coronabeast are waning fast. “It has burnt through the dry grass, mainly those who would have died anyway in the next few months, and now it is infecting younger age groups but not harming them,” says a scientist friend. Admissions are only a fraction of the level compared to peak of the pandemic despite warnings of a second wave rolling across Europe. “Covid has gone from our wards, has been for weeks” reports the head nurse at one of the UK’s largest hospitals..."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/po...ngerous-virus/ (whole article behind paywall).

Because prominent people in Government -in the UK, in Ireland- have broken their own rules, people may become cynical and decide to ignore them. But I wonder if this is feeding into a more lawless atmosphere where illegal raves, and other street parties take place and if the police arrive they are abused and a fight breaks out. It is different in the USA because there has not been a nationwide, and effective lockdown as there was here, because of politically-motivated defiance and an apparent indifference to illness- some of the things I have seen on the news here have been staggering in this regard, though large gatherings have also been complicated by the BLM protests and the counter-protests of armed militias, one shown last night on ITV news from Louisville, Kentucky was mind-boggling -White Militias, Black Militias, and no police! And if people wore masks, it was to hide their identity not for health reasons!

So I went to see Tenet in the cinema last week, but the cinemas must close again as they did earlier in the year- I don't see how two screens limited to six people in each is viable. As for the coffee shops in town, I assume takeaways may be available, but no more sitting. New York in this regard has been stricter in its maintenance of the rules, but I wonder if we are reaching a breaking point when more and more people will just do their own thing? The behaviour and language ofthe President is appalling in this regard, but he is feeding a cynical beast that thinks Covid 19 is over-rated as a threat, and the attempt to impose the wearing of masks some sort of Marxist-Leninist plot to coerce the population into behaving the same way.

What I am not sure about is the extent to which people have, or are losing respect in their elected politicians, and how this might affect the way they vote. There was a lot of goodwill earlier in this pandemic, and people did what we had to do, and I think probably the majority may still be willing to limit their behaviour -but it can't last indefinitely, and I don't know what the next three months holds for us.

An updated to the post that I made yesterday. NYC restaurants will be able to resume indoor dining on September 30th under the following criteria:

Restaurants will be limited to 25 percent capacity, all customers will have to submit to temperature checks, one member of each party will have to give contact tracing information, there will be no bar service -- and the public will be asked to anonymously report violations by phone or text.

Masks must be worn at all times when not seated at table and tables must be 6 feet apart.

Restaurants close at midnight.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

An updated to the post that I made yesterday. NYC restaurants will be able to resume indoor dining on September 30th under the following criteria:

Restaurants will be limited to 25 percent capacity, all customers will have to submit to temperature checks, one member of each party will have to give contact tracing information, there will be no bar service -- and the public will be asked to anonymously report violations by phone or text.

Masks must be worn at all times when not seated at table and tables must be 6 feet apart.

Restaurants close at midnight.

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Best of luck with that one! In the UK the re-opening of cafes and restaurants was shaped by the Chancellor subsidizing the cost with his Eat Out to Help Out Scheme-(the result in my town was queues of up to 50 people outside Wagamama at lunchtimes)-

"To support restaurants and the people who work in them we’re saying ‘Eat Out to Help Out’.So for the month of August we will give you a 50% reduction, up to £10 per head, on sit-down meals and non-alcoholic drinks Monday-Wednesday. #PlanForJobs pic.twitter.com/D6eznIDjqC
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 8, 2020"


Now we have two more slogan based strategies, The Rule of Six, and, get this- Operation Moonshot, est. cost £100 billion...
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3520

Cost of a real Moonshot?

"NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine offered his first concrete budget estimate for the agency's current lunar aspirations, a plan that has been dubbed the Artemis program. That plan includes recruiting commercial companies and international partners, building a lunar space station, landing humans at the moon's south pole by 2024 and framing the whole project as practicing for Mars."For the whole program, to get a sustainable presence on the moon, we're looking at between $20 and $30 billion..."
https://www.space.com/nasa-moon-2024...-revealed.html

Health-warning: Careful with those fags...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-KGiwGn1d8

When people point out that the Flu has a mortality rate of .1% and the IFR of Covid is probably around .7% they actually understate the difference in danger between the two diseases. The Flu mortality rate is a case fatality rate which means it's based on number of deaths divided by number of positive flu tests. Although flu tests are readily available, people with mild flu symptoms don't get tested most of the time and there are asymptomatic flu cases. On the other hand, people with mild symptoms of Covid are getting tested currently and even some asymptomatic people are getting tested when their contacts test positive. As a result, it seems like a reasonable comparison to compare current CFR of Covid against the CFR of Flu. If you do that the mortality difference looks closer to about 20X rather than 7X. The only group that seems to not have an elevated risk of death with covid relative to flu are children, who are not at all immune to the effects of covid but develop serious disease infrequently.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

When people point out that the Flu has a mortality rate of .1% and the IFR of Covid is probably around .7% they actually understate the difference in danger between the two diseases. The Flu mortality rate is a case fatality rate which means it's based on number of deaths divided by number of positive flu tests. Although flu tests are readily available, people with mild flu symptoms don't get tested most of the time and there are asymptomatic flu cases. On the other hand, people with mild symptoms of Covid are getting tested currently and even some asymptomatic people are getting tested when their contacts test positive. As a result, it seems like a reasonable comparison to compare current CFR of Covid against the CFR of Flu. If you do that the mortality difference looks closer to about 20X rather than 7X. The only group that seems to not have an elevated risk of death with covid relative to flu are children, who are not at all immune to the effects of covid but develop serious disease infrequently.

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Anyhow my point is that cfr depends upon how many mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic people get tested. If we knew the ifr of both diseases it would make for a better comparison. The IFR for seasonal flu is estimated at .025-.04%. So even if we compared ifr to ifr, a .7% ifr for Covid would still make it between 17 and 28 times as deadly.

The link below provides both cfr and ifr for seasonal flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fatality_rates

To add to this, there is a group of very stupid Republicans who make one or both of the following two arguments. They argue that people are dying "with covid" rather than of covid and that's it's a coincidence that people happen to die 4 weeks after they've been infected with sars-cov2 of known covid-related sequelae. I don't know what to tell you but it's strange we also have excess death numbers that are greater than recorded deaths given that people are dying by coincidence of pneumonia and blood clots shortly after being diagnosed with covid.

They also reduce the death toll to include only those who don't have any pre-existing conditions. Of course, this would reduce the death toll of Flu to practically nothing if they did that. These people know nothing about causation, about the human condition, and are low grade eugenicists. If a 50 year old with hypertension dies of covid they still died of covid, notwithstanding their hypertension. Even those who are 20 and have no pre-existing conditions but die might have some difference in the way their immune system functions to explain the fact they clear the virus less efficiently than other 20 year olds. Would someone say they died because of that difference?

The whole argument is not just stupid but dehumanizingly stupid and appalling.

So, from Eat Out to Help Out, The Rule of Six and Operation Moonshot, we expect the Prime Minister, probably on Tuesday to announce a Circuit Break strategy that will localize lockdowns where there has been a surge of Covid 19. A circuit break was first introduced in Singapore, and is the latest attempt by this useless Government to Take Back Control of a pandemic that appears to be, after six months, reverting to what it was when it began. Rather like the EU Withdrawal Agreement that tossed the conduct of Parliamentary business into chaos before ousting Theresa May and replacing her with a man, Boris Johnson, who hailed his version of the Withdrawal Agreement 'a triumph' when it was 95% the same as the one which led him to resign as Foreign Secretary, and which is now before the House as so flawed a document the men who wrote it now stand up in the Commons to say they will defy its provisions as related to Northern Ireland and knowingly break the law.

So serious has this become that Johnson's own party, the Stalinist party of Brexit shorn of its 'Remain' traitors (once known as 'Conservatives'), is now saying, in effect, that he has six months to Take Back Control of the agenda or lose his position. It is a somewhat bitter irony that the man who adopted Brexit without once thinking through the details of it, now faces oblivion because his effulgent and positive view of the process has circled back on him because nobody in 2016 thought much about how Northern Ireland could be taken out of the EU without violating the Good Friday Agreement, just as since Covid 19 Johnson has failed to implement a nationwide and severe reign of austerity to strangle the virus- panicking in July to allow the very relaxation of the lockdown rules that has both led to a resurgence of the virus, while threatening the economy a second time, yet with a record of amateurish bungling -a 'world beating' test and trace system that flopped on the Isle of Wight, so the world can be relieved it wasn't tried on them.

Then we hear this from the new head of the Test and Trace system, Dido Harding-

"The head of the NHS test-and-trace programme, Dido Harding, told MPs on Thursday demand for tests was outstripping supply by three to four times – and conceded the sharp increase as children returned to schools had not been anticipated."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...covid-lockdown

Had not been anticipated? Hello? Is anyone there? Year Six? Year One?

Other reports claim that Boris has put on a lot of weight since returning from hospital, that he is complaining that his apartment in No 10 is too small, they only have one cleaner, and he has had to take such a large pay cut from his previous income as a journalist that he can't afford a nanny, plus those other costs, given that of the six chidren he has fathered by, I think, four different women, he must provide for four of them. Life is tough at the top, eh, Boris?

He is not alone, as I have rarely seen such a miserable bunch of useless incompetents calling themselves the British Government. The same party that gave us Grenfell Tower -a scandal the details of which have but trickled out in the last 18 months- is now in an inferno of its own making, with Brexit simmering away, waiting to blow its top.

Somebody, send help! We are struggling, and are in need. America, if you can't spare Batman, Robin will do.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/29/...rly-data-show/

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idINKBN26L08A

Regeneron, which is a biotech company that specializes in the production of monoclonal antibodies, has just released a limited amount of data for its antibody cocktail. The data shows that when the antibodies were given to people in early disease, viral load was reduced, and time to recovery was significantly reduced. I've read that the most impressive result was in a subgroup, specifically those who were labeled "seronegative", meaning at the time of treatment didn't produce much in the way of their own antibodies (Igg I believe but I don't know).

We don't have survival rate data yet because this was administered in mild to moderate disease. There would be a major logistical challenge if this is only effective in early disease, as it's administered intravenously. Furthermore, the effective dose was 8 grams, which is considered a high dose of a monoclonal antibody which is already expensive to produce. One can do the math of 8 grams times 40,000 daily cases to get the per day production that would be needed for early disease.

Anyhow, the take away is that the results were promising. Viral load over time is correlated with case severity and reduction in the symptomatic period is an important marker. It will take some time to see whether this is effective in preventing death in serious disease. I'm a bit less interested in the prophylactic arm simply because I think a vaccine will be available in limited supply by the time it could be approved but it's still useful to have a treatment bc the vaccine might not provide sterilizing immunity and some people might not get vaccinated.

Just one last thing about this. According to Eric Topol, a doctor at Scripps who I follow on twitter, monoclonal antibodies will likely be approved by December or January. The reason clinical trials were delayed is because the pool of people available for trials was sucked up by hydroxychloroquine trials and because testing turnaround was so bad people couldn't be enrolled.

I am not sure whether Trump will get an infusion of monoclonal antibodies early in disease but it's unlikely. I've read that he has a fever and cough.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...55397985910784

Update: he did get an infusion of the Regeneron antibody and was started on Remdesivir.

What's puzzling is that his doctor acknowledged that he has also been started on dexamethasone. This is not just an aggressive treatment but there are known risks associated with giving steroids to someone too early in disease. Steroids work because they have mild immunosuppressing effects. Of course you hope that their suppression of deadly inflammation is greater than their suppression of your ability to fight a virus, but that's why the calculus makes more sense in severe disease. I'll include a link to a medical professional saying it, but I don't think a doctor would give a covid patient dexamethasone unless he thought he had more than mild symptoms.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...88769058283522

https://twitter.com/sciencecohen/sta...632541184?s=20

Here is a three tweet thread from Jon Cohen of Science Magazine about the dangers of giving dexamethasone too early. It has an article attached that I haven't read yet, but I've found their articles to be very thorough while still being digestible for non-scientists.

"The speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has taken aim at the British vaccine testing safety regime, warning that UK approval of a vaccine would not automatically mean it was safe according to the US’s own procedures.
Amid a race to produce an effective vaccine against Covid-19 that meets broad international acceptance for safety, Pelosi’s comments appear partly motivated by concern that any quick and unilateral British approval of a vaccine might be embraced by Donald Trump for political gain, perhaps even before the 3 November election."

What a silly, petulant comment by Speaker Pelosi, and frankly an insult to scientists in the UK. And for what, to get one over on the President? She would be better off looking at where the money is going in the US and ask how it is that the President is treated with a drug that was developed (in part from the tissue of an aborted fetus) by one his golfing buddies and the company he used to own shares in. Vaccines must be about public safety as well as medical effectiveness, but right now there isn't one, but there is a corrupt link between politics and pharmaceuticals, and it into that mix where Pelosi ought to be raking her greasy stick.

The President of the United States has spent the last seven months touting hydroxychloroquine, which was shown not to work by May. As early as April, most scientists thought the best chance of a new, effective therapeutic would be the development of monoclonal antibodies. Phase II data are suggestive of efficacy but we still don't have proof they can save lives.

Trump has spoken the words monoclonal antibodies zero times in the last seven months. Even after getting an infusion of them produced by Regeneron he thinks the drug name is "Regeneron" and also doesn't appear to be aware of the fact that Eli Lilly, Sorrento and several other companies are testing their own cloned antibodies. As I've said before, the clinical trials have been delayed because of Trump's politically motivated obsession with hydroxychloroquine.

He also didn't invest enough federal money to produce monoclonals "at risk" so that if they're proven safe and effective they'd be widely available. Now he's touting Regeneron's treatment as a cure, which it surely isn't and his soft-headed son Eric has referred to the treatment his dad received as a vaccine, which it also isn't. Hopefully Trump's loss is clear cut because this is getting to be too much.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

"The speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has taken aim at the British vaccine testing safety regime, warning that UK approval of a vaccine would not automatically mean it was safe according to the US’s own procedures.
Amid a race to produce an effective vaccine against Covid-19 that meets broad international acceptance for safety, Pelosi’s comments appear partly motivated by concern that any quick and unilateral British approval of a vaccine might be embraced by Donald Trump for political gain, perhaps even before the 3 November election."

What a silly, petulant comment by Speaker Pelosi, and frankly an insult to scientists in the UK. And for what, to get one over on the President? She would be better off looking at where the money is going in the US and ask how it is that the President is treated with a drug that was developed (in part from the tissue of an aborted fetus) by one his golfing buddies and the company he used to own shares in. Vaccines must be about public safety as well as medical effectiveness, but right now there isn't one, but there is a corrupt link between politics and pharmaceuticals, and it into that mix where Pelosi ought to be raking her greasy stick.

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Of all the countries and their scientists that I would trust to come up with a safe vaccine it would be Great Britain, regardless of who your guys PM is.

Its October 11th. Even if one of the pharmaceutical companies on either side of the Atlantic would to come up with a vaccine by the end of the month, I don't think its going to have an impact on the U.S. Presidential Elections. It also probably wouldn't be available for widespread distribution either. So I don't know why Pelosi had to make that statement.

Throughout covid it has always been pretty easy to identify a medical consensus.

When a vaccine is made available, whether it's from Britain or from the U.S., there will be a lot of information available and a lot commentary on what the data tell us from experts.

I haven't really understood those Democrats who say they won't take a vaccine made available under Trump. If the data were strong enough and the FDA approves it, Trump's view shouldn't matter.

Finally, I have no idea whether the regulatory guidelines in Britain for vaccines are more or less stringent than they are in the U.S. Pelosi's comment is technically correct that one country's regulatory approval shouldn't be binding on our FDA, but given how compromised our FDA has become, maybe she should wait and see what data is made available.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

I haven't really understood those Democrats who say they won't take a vaccine made available under Trump. If the data were strong enough and the FDA approves it, Trump's view shouldn't matter.

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What i mean is that if we're worried about a vaccine that is rushed through the regulatory process you don't have to judge its safety by Trump's comments. People will demand that the data be publicly available and will see what the foremost experts have to say about the strength of the evidence.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Throughout covid it has always been pretty easy to identify a medical consensus.

When a vaccine is made available, whether it's from Britain or from the U.S., there will be a lot of information available and a lot commentary on what the data tell us from experts.

I haven't really understood those Democrats who say they won't take a vaccine made available under Trump. If the data were strong enough and the FDA approves it, Trump's view shouldn't matter.

Finally, I have no idea whether the regulatory guidelines in Britain for vaccines are more or less stringent than they are in the U.S. Pelosi's comment is technically correct that one country's regulatory approval shouldn't be binding on our FDA, but given how compromised our FDA has become, maybe she should wait and see what data is made available.

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A while back, all the CEOs of the major pharmaceutical companies said that no matter what pressure is exert on them, they will not release a vaccine until it has gone through the necessary trials and gets approved by the FDA. Even if you take into consideration the bad reputation that pharmaceutical companies have (some of which is earned), I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. The ramifications of releasing a rushed vaccine to market can have a significant impact on people's health, not the mention the bottom line of the company whose name is on it.

I think there are some Democrats who are just so blinded by their hatred for Trump that will automatically dismiss anything that is associated with him. Even if it is something as positive as a vaccine.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

I think there are some Democrats who are just so blinded by their hatred for Trump that will automatically dismiss anything that is associated with him. Even if it is something as positive as a vaccine.

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I understand the skepticism about anything associated with him, as we have 5 times more deaths per capita than the average country. Than average! This man talks about great, average beat him by 500%.

He also promoted a drug that failed in numerous clinical trials and fired Rick Bright, a man with decades of experience making vaccines because he wouldn't promote his fascist sugar pill. He compounded that by gumming up the clinical trials of treatments that could succeed, then getting a compassionate use exemption for himself for a drug whose trials his actions got delayed and is now bragging it's a cure.

If the only evidence of a vaccine's effectiveness were Trump's word, I'd have nothing to do with it. But the vaccines really have very little to do with him and the regulatory process will as well. Under any administration we'd have at least as robust a program and a different President would have required Slaoui to divest his stock portfolio as well. But by the time you or I get a vaccine I expect we'll be told what percentage of people it's expected to prevent disease in and how that is inferred and how many people had serious side effects. If a company is not transparent about the data, I will have concerns, but Trump will be irrelevant as long as he doesn't inadvertently get in the way.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

I just submitted all my information for vaccine trials. I'll report back once I hear something.

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An update. This is an email that I received this morning:

Thank you for completing a survey and joining the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN) Volunteer Screening Registry. We are so thankful for your willingness to consider research to help fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can You Help Us?

As you may know, older adults have the most hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 of any group in the United States. So far, not many persons older than age 70 have signed up in this registry.

If you know of someone in your life who is older than age 70 and interested in participating in coronavirus prevention research, would you consider passing along our website to them (https://www.PreventCOVID.org/ )? For persons without internet access, or who do not feel comfortable with online forms, they can also call our toll-free registry at 866-CVT-1919 (866-288-1919).

Again, thank you for joining the CoVPN Volunteer Screening Registry. You are making a difference! You may still be contacted by researchers who can tell you more about upcoming studies. If we do not contact you, that means there is no study that we can match you with right now. New studies continue to be planned over the next few months.

Thank you!! We appreciate your help and support.

Speaking of Nancy Pelosi and her petulance.

//www.yahoo.com/news/pelosi-calls-cn-ns-blitzer-an-apologist-for-the-gop-in-heated-exchange-over-stimulus-bill-230555851.html

This is the second time that she has accused a news anchor of being an Republican apologist because someone asked her what the Republicans offered in negotiations. The first time was with Judy Wooddruff from PBS if I'm not mistaken.

I don't see what the problem is with making deal now where you might not getting everything you want and then if Biden wins the election, doing another stimulus deal once he is sworn into office.

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Speaking of Nancy Pelosi and her petulance.

//www.yahoo.com/news/pelosi-calls-cn-ns-blitzer-an-apologist-for-the-gop-in-heated-exchange-over-stimulus-bill-230555851.html

This is the second time that she has accused a news anchor of being an Republican apologist because someone asked her what the Republicans offered in negotiations. The first time was with Judy Wooddruff from PBS if I'm not mistaken.

I don't see what the problem is with making deal now where you might not getting everything you want and then if Biden wins the election, doing another stimulus deal once he is sworn into office.

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I watched that interview and Nancy Pelosi very disrespectful and combative towards CNN's Wolf Blitzer,by talking over and accusing him of being a Republican Apologist when all he was trying to do was ask her questions about what the Republicans offered in negotiations for a new stimulus deal, and her petulance was on full display in the interview,and i also don't see what the problem is with making a deal where the Democrats might not be getting everything they want.

An excellent, if depressing overview of the management or mis-management of COVID-19 in the US, some of which can be applied to the UK.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/o...gtype=Homepage

There are some people who think it's unfair to blame Trump for our bad covid outcomes. Yet this country didn't have any inherent disadvantages in dealing with it when it comes to our resources, our geography, and the number of great scientists we have.

It is not just that culturally Americans are resistant to taking measures that protect other people. That message has been boosted by Trump and its impacts magnified by segments of the public who think any sacrifice they are asked to make is an infringement on their liberty. Off the top of my head, here are things I've heard Trump say:
1. Covid is like the flu
2. Covid only kills old people
3. A vaccine will be available in three months (he said this in early March)
4. A vaccine will be available in October (he said this during his debate with Biden in October; there's one day left in the month)
5. Hydroxychloroquine treats covid and randomized controlled trials showing it doesn't are run by Trump-haters
6. Monoclonal antibodies are a cure (the most recent data shows efficacy in early disease and none in hospitalized patients)
7. Masks aren't effective (said as late as October)
8. We're going to open the economy by Easter
9. Disinfectant and uv light inside the body can treat covid
10. Fauci has been wrong about everything (most of the things he's accused of being wrong about are taken out of context)
11. We're rounding the corner and the virus will go away (said recently as daily cases explode to 90,000 a day)
12. When the weather warms up it will disappear on its own.
13. Liberate Michigan (a call for insurrection against very reasonable public health measures at the beginning of the first shutdown)
14. Making fun of his opponent wearing a mask during a debate in which he was probably already sick with covid

The people who don't think he can be blamed for 150,000 deaths must think it's a coincidence that he's saying things that misinform people about the virus, about the trajectory of infections, and about their risk and that we've done a terrible job in containing it. Seems to me that kind of cavalier attitude towards the truth is what endangers people during a pandemic.

The way in which the President and his son are claiming deaths are now so low as to be unremarkable is so stark in its repudiation of the facts, one wonders if they have given up, and are torching the shed before they leave? As for 'rounding the corner', the evidence suggests the USA is going round in circles, or that Covid-19 is running rings around America. Unless, and until those ignorant fools mask up and shut down their space, then Covid-19 will be free to roam. Not the kind of freedom America, or anywhere else wants.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

There are some people who think it's unfair to blame Trump for our bad covid outcomes. Yet this country didn't have any inherent disadvantages in dealing with it when it comes to our resources, our geography, and the number of great scientists we have.

It is not just that culturally Americans are resistant to taking measures that protect other people. That message has been boosted by Trump and its impacts magnified by segments of the public who think any sacrifice they are asked to make is an infringement on their liberty. Off the top of my head, here are things I've heard Trump say:
1. Covid is like the flu
2. Covid only kills old people
3. A vaccine will be available in three months (he said this in early March)
4. A vaccine will be available in October (he said this during his debate with Biden in October; there's one day left in the month)
5. Hydroxychloroquine treats covid and randomized controlled trials showing it doesn't are run by Trump-haters
6. Monoclonal antibodies are a cure (the most recent data shows efficacy in early disease and none in hospitalized patients)
7. Masks aren't effective (said as late as October)
8. We're going to open the economy by Easter
9. Disinfectant and uv light inside the body can treat covid
10. Fauci has been wrong about everything (most of the things he's accused of being wrong about are taken out of context)
11. We're rounding the corner and the virus will go away (said recently as daily cases explode to 90,000 a day)
12. When the weather warms up it will disappear on its own.
13. Liberate Michigan (a call for insurrection against very reasonable public health measures at the beginning of the first shutdown)
14. Making fun of his opponent wearing a mask during a debate in which he was probably already sick with covid

The people who don't think he can be blamed for 150,000 deaths must think it's a coincidence that he's saying things that misinform people about the virus, about the trajectory of infections, and about their risk and that we've done a terrible job in containing it. Seems to me that kind of cavalier attitude towards the truth is what endangers people during a pandemic.

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Donald-D.A.M.N-Trump has been completely wrong on all of those misguided claims he has made over the last 9 months ,and his comments shows that he doesn't believe in science or facts,and doesn't know what the hell he is talking about and is living in an alternative reality. and also shows how uneducated and unhinged he is. and the people who think that he shouldn't be blamed for the 150,000 deaths due his mishandling of the CO-VID 19 Pandemic are delusional and tonedeafed. and agree that kind of cavalier attitude towards the truth is what endangers people during a pandemic.

Meanwhile, in another universe far, far away (perhaps we could call it Sanity World).

The COVID-19 second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control, with no new cases for 10 days now.

Two recent state elections have seen incumbent governments comfortably returned, as also occurred in New Zealand - indicating that voters are prepared to reward politicians would do a competent job of managing the virus, despite the hit to the economy. The Trump-style populists saw a big fall in their vote.

The conservative Prime Minister of Australia has congratulated Joe Biden on his win and invited him to visit next year.

There may be a clash in the US as Mike Pence 'renews' his leadership of the Covid-19 Taskforce later today (Monday) while the Transition Team announce the membership of ther own. In normal times, the Transition Team would be given the money and the office space to organize their own transition, plus any help the outgoing Presidency provides, which at this time of writing is nothing. I am about to link some claims re this in the election thread.

The President complained about 'Covid, Covid, Covid' dominating the news, and said after the 3rd you would not hear about it. Perhaps that is the measure of the man, and that the first reactions of his party to his defeat was led by Rudolph Giuliani in the car park of a garden centre cited next to a sex shop and a cremation centre...

Pfizer, which was not part of Operation Warp Speed, has released early data showing it prevented infection in 90% of people. It will eventually qualify for an emergency use authorization in the U.S. and also be distributed in several other countries. Some say the positive results bode well for other vaccines currently in trials, including Moderna which uses similar technology and is expected to have enough data to release results by the end of this month.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

I think the time has come for the Administration to do something unprecedented and invite President-Elect Biden's Covid-19 team to begin working with Mike Pence with immediate effect, or this is the kind of senseless drivel that will guarantee another million infections, and God hows how many more deaths.

We may need to start linking the policies of this Government with Crimes Against Humanity, and all that implies with regard to indictments.

"Dr. Scott Atlas, the White House’s controversial coronavirus adviser, encouraged an insurrection on Sunday against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Michigan’s new COVID-19 safety protocols meant to curb the state’s skyrocketing infection rates.
The remarks by Atlas, who is a neuroradiologist with no formal training in treating infectious diseases, came in response to the Democratic governor announcing an epidemic order starting Wednesday for at least three weeks. The new Michigan Department of Health and Human Services regulations halt in-person learning for high schools and colleges, indoor dining, theaters, stadiums, organized sports, casinos and group exercise classes.
“The only way this stops is if people rise up,” the Trump adviser tweeted in response to the new regulations. “You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp” "
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-covi...043820011.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Pfizer, which was not part of Operation Warp Speed, has released early data showing it prevented infection in 90% of people. It will eventually qualify for an emergency use authorization in the U.S. and also be distributed in several other countries. Some say the positive results bode well for other vaccines currently in trials, including Moderna which uses similar technology and is expected to have enough data to release results by the end of this month.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

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As expected, Moderna's mrna vaccine was successful just like Pfizer's (94.5% efficacy v 90% efficacy) and will probably get emergency use authorization before the end of the year. One benefit of Moderna's vaccine is that it doesn't require storage at extremely cold temperatures and when it reaches point of delivery it can be kept at refrigerator temperatures for 30 days before it denatures. This makes it logistically much easier to get to remote places than the Pfizer vaccine, which will need special packing at every step of transit and sensors to make sure there aren't even transient temperature increases.

The only thing Donald Trump deserves credit for is having a pandemic so out of control that data collection occurred quickly during Phase III. All things equal, it would have been preferable to have fewer cases and deaths and to collect data a bit more slowly even if it meant we have to wait a couple extra months.

The data showed only 5 infections so far in the vaccine group. The fact that none of them was severe is notable though not statistically significant yet. The hope is that when people are infected the disease is also less severe. But just the fact that it's 94.5% effective at preventing disease is a great sign so far.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27W1E6

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stavros

We may need to start linking the policies of this Government with Crimes Against Humanity, and all that implies with regard to indictments.

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Thank you for this, including the portion about the disgraceful Dr. Atlas. It is difficult to find a doctor who is less respected among his peers. At a time when the virus is out of control and hospitalizations are at an all-time high he is stoking division and undermining public health. There have been epidemiological studies that have evaluated the effectiveness of our public health response. For the most part, we have had almost no national response and the response of our states has been undermined by the public messaging of the President. Most of these studies say that a modest degree of top down leadership would have prevented more than 100,000 deaths and a study from Columbia University estimated 130,000-210,000 deaths could have been prevented.

What is striking about Trump's public statements is that he's made no attempt to learn about the disease spreading all over this country. There is a difference between those who questioned the efficacy of mask use in early March when we weren't certain there was pre-symptomatic spread and those who have done so 6 months into the pandemic. There is a difference between saying one is hopeful about hydroxychloroquine in March and saying it after an unprecedented number of RCTs show it isn't. For many people, there is a learning curve but for the President there are a series of impulses directed by his ego, without regard for the effect of his statements on people's compliance with public health recommendations.

Scott Atlas is the latest example of how easy it is for a leader to cherry-pick experts to support his policy preferences. He can do it in climate science, he can do it in law, and he has done it in the response to this pandemic (though as you note Atlas is not an infectious disease doc). It is possible for the consensus view of any field to be wrong but when you consistently seek out marginal voices to say things that are convenient for you, it undermines public welfare.

Edit: might as well include this since I've mentioned it a couple times:

https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-con...hs-US-NCDP.pdf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stavros

I think the time has come for the Administration to do something unprecedented and invite President-Elect Biden's Covid-19 team to begin working with Mike Pence with immediate effect, or this is the kind of senseless drivel that will guarantee another million infections, and God hows how many more deaths.

We may need to start linking the policies of this Government with Crimes Against Humanity, and all that implies with regard to indictments.

"Dr. Scott Atlas, the White House’s controversial coronavirus adviser, encouraged an insurrection on Sunday against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Michigan’s new COVID-19 safety protocols meant to curb the state’s skyrocketing infection rates.
The remarks by Atlas, who is a neuroradiologist with no formal training in treating infectious diseases, came in response to the Democratic governor announcing an epidemic order starting Wednesday for at least three weeks. The new Michigan Department of Health and Human Services regulations halt in-person learning for high schools and colleges, indoor dining, theaters, stadiums, organized sports, casinos and group exercise classes.
“The only way this stops is if people rise up,” the Trump adviser tweeted in response to the new regulations. “You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp” "
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-covi...043820011.html

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Agree and also think it is time for the Trump Administration to do something unprecedented and invite President-Elect Biden's CO-VID 19 to the White House to begin working with Mike Pence with immediate effect,And the remarks made by Dr. Scott Atlas's againist Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer were despicable and dangerous,and shouldn't speak on things he knows nothing about and should keep his remarks to himself,and let people who are qualified speak to the public.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blackchubby38

Of all the countries and their scientists that I would trust to come up with a safe vaccine it would be Great Britain, regardless of who your guys PM is.

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The main vaccine being produced in the UK is an adenovirus vector vaccine by Oxford and Astrazeneca in partnership. It is a different class of vaccine to the ones produced by Pfizer and Moderna shots, which are mrna vaccines.

These vaccines are engineered to deliver the genetic instructions to make the sarscov2 spike protein inside an adenovirus, which is one of the types of viruses that causes the cold. My understanding is that the viral vector is the vehicle for getting those genes into our own DNA since that's how viruses reproduce themselves. One of the challenges with this kind of vaccine is that our immune systems can identify and attack the adenovirus before it gets to our cells which would make it ineffective. To avoid this problem Oxford is using Chimpanzee adenovirus because our immune systems will not have encountered it. There is still the possibility that if immunity to covid wanes over time and we need boosters our immune systems might recognize and attack the adenovirus more robustly the second time.

Anyhow, the results of the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine are expected soon. Johnson and Johnson also has an adenovirus vector vaccine that a lot of people are excited about but there were delays in the clinical trials and they are not expected to complete them for at least another month. Johnson and Johnson's vaccine is being tested in single dose trials which is important given manufacturing constraints. It can also be refrigerated for 3 months, which provides much less logistical challenge than the vaccine by Pfizer.

Although Pfizer's vaccine was the first one approved it remains to be seen whether it will be the most utilized. It already looks like Moderna's vaccine will be easier to supply and others are on the way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Johnson and Johnson's vaccine is being tested in single dose trials which is important given manufacturing constraints.

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Turns out Johnson & Johnson also just started trials with two doses. One might speculate it shows a lack of confidence in their single dose program but it's probably the responsible thing to do in case two doses is much more effective.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...-covid-vaccine

If there is going to be a coup in the US, maybe someone should remove Kristi Noem from her office before South Dakota returns to the stone age, assuming it is not her aspiration.

"Coronavirus in South Dakota is running at an intensity only surpassed in the US by its neighbor North Dakota. The state has an alarming positivity rate of almost 60% – nearly six out of 10 people who take a Covid test are infected – second only to another neighbor, Wyoming.
...
Amid this devastating contagion, Noem is rigidly sticking to the strategy she has adopted since the pandemic began. It consists of a refusal to accept mask mandates and repeated denial of the science around the efficacy of wearing masks; resistance to imposing any restrictions on bars and restaurants; no limits on gatherings in churches or other places of worship; and no orders to stay at home.
While the statistics are clear – the virus is running wild in South Dakota – Noem has turned a public health emergency into an issue of “freedom” and “liberty”, consistently lying about the trajectory of the disease under her watch. “We’re doing really good in South Dakota. We’re managing Covid-19,” she has said."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-south-dakota

The results for the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine trial have come in and there is now a third effective vaccine. The efficacy was 70%, which was not as good as Pfizer or Moderna but it is still very good since 50% is typically considered good enough for approval. Those who led the trial say that when they gave volunteers a small initial dose with the full second dose the efficacy was 90%. We'll see if that holds over time but it's still fairly good news. The vaccine is easier to store and transport than Pfizer's vaccine and the results here bode well for Johnson and Johnson's vaccine using similar technology.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html

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This article by BBC is much better imo. It addresses the question of whether the result is "disappointing". It is not disappointing really. If the 70% result had come in before Moderna and Pfizer's data it would be heralded as a great success and it has logistical advantages over those vaccines. It also explains a possible reason why a subgroup that got an initial small dose may have had a better result. All of these studies are looking at serious disease in secondary analysis. The endpoint is number of symptomatic cases, but so far the vaccines do look like when they don't prevent symptomatic cases they may prevent serious disease though it probably takes a lot more data to establish that.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stavros

If there is going to be a coup in the US, maybe someone should remove Kristi Noem from her office before South Dakota returns to the stone age, assuming it is not her aspiration.

"Coronavirus in South Dakota is running at an intensity only surpassed in the US by its neighbor North Dakota. The state has an alarming positivity rate of almost 60% – nearly six out of 10 people who take a Covid test are infected – second only to another neighbor, Wyoming.
...
Amid this devastating contagion, Noem is rigidly sticking to the strategy she has adopted since the pandemic began. It consists of a refusal to accept mask mandates and repeated denial of the science around the efficacy of wearing masks; resistance to imposing any restrictions on bars and restaurants; no limits on gatherings in churches or other places of worship; and no orders to stay at home.
While the statistics are clear – the virus is running wild in South Dakota – Noem has turned a public health emergency into an issue of “freedom” and “liberty”, consistently lying about the trajectory of the disease under her watch. “We’re doing really good in South Dakota. We’re managing Covid-19,” she has said."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-south-dakota

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South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is just as delusional and tonedeafed about the CO-VID 19 Pandemic as Donald Trump is,and her comments shows that she doesn't believe in science or facts.