Printable View
A post that underlines your lack of interest in Syria and the region, having previously demonstrated your ignorance. If you are referring to Syria I did not even imply it is a great place to live, that should be obvious.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
As the situation in Syria changes, if not by the hour, by the day, intriguing outcomes suggest that a fractured country will not be healed.
Consider the argument, aired on Channel 4 News in the UK this Friday evening (Dec 6th) that the Turks were aware that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were planning their operations in Aleppo and Hama, and cautioned their leader against them. But now that HTS has so far succeeded in gaining control of those two cities, with the prospect of Homs falling over the weekend, Turkey must now be revising its own ambitions. Having occupied parts of Northern Syria as a 'buffer zone' which it claims helps it defend Turkey from militant Kurds, the success of the Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces in maintaining their control of Deir-al-Zour could lead to an agreement with Turkey. In spite of its hostility to Kurdish Nationalism, Turkey would prefer the SDF to remain in control of the East because it is stable, and it would prefer Syrian Kurds to remain in Syria, and more than anything else, prevent displaced Syrians from seeking refuge in Turkey. Moreover, as HTS says displaced Syrians in Idlib who fled there from Aleppo and other areas can now return to their homes (if they still exist), so Turkey could envisage Syrian refugees in Turkey also leaving to 'go home'.
Part of the reasoning is based on the claims of HTS that it is not al-Qaeda or ISIS reborn, that they have learned the lesson of the past and wish to be more inclusive. But this also would be a win-win for Turkey, as they key element, the Asad family business, looks like it is coming to an end, which gives Turkey a lot of power in the North and East of the country.
Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, the rebels seizing control of Aleppo? - BBC News
The Asad regime clearly failed to consolidate its 'victory' over ISIS and the rebels, while the Russians also did not consolidate their presence, rescuing the Asad regime, as their military base and naval base are poorly managed with one claim that Russian ships have been leaving the base at Tartus on the coast, and it is no secret that Russia needs all the manpower and weaponry it has for it Ukraine operations. If the Russians do abandon Asad, can he and his family business survive?
Russia ‘will not come to Assad’s rescue’ as it orders citizens to leave Syria
For Israel the obvious problem is that an unstable Syria poses a threat, but not because of the use of Hizbollah militias in defence of Asad. With Iran weakened and Hizbollah with it, Israel could in theory welcome the fall of Asad, but what is not clear is how Saudi Arabia and the Gulf will response, as both got severely burned when they intervened in Syria in 2011. The anti-Iran alliance that Saudi Arabia formed with Israel may not longer be strong enough to guarantee no incursions from Syria into Israel, given that right now HTS is more interested in consolidating its rule in Syria, if it succeeds in demolishing the Asad regime. Saudi Arabia could even support HTS, giving it a leg up in Syria, and persuade Trump to go along with it, or at least remain neutral about a new situation in Syria, and especially if it can persuade HTS not to attack Israel -which can be backed up with Saudi money, an intriguing step on the road to Saudi Arabia's historic claim to rule all of the Middle East.
Syria will remain fractured, and the situation could get even worse if Trump and Israel agree to the claim that Trump will endorse the formal annexation by Israel of the West Bank in exchange for ending the war in Gaza as reported here-
"With Trump’s reelection, the Middle East could soon witness a deal of extraordinary cynicism: Ending the war in Gaza in exchange for Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank.
For Netanyahu, such a move would be the ultimate exercise in narrative manipulation. It would allow him to claim that he not only subdued Hamas, but also reshaped the map of the Middle East. At the same time, it would deflect attention from the devastating security failures of Oct. 7, 2023. For Trump, it would be a theatrical masterstroke — an opportunity to stage a grand deal early in his second term, feed his base with the optics of strength and cement his legacy as a “master negotiator.”".
Netanyahu and Trump may cut a cynical and costly Gaza deal
But just as an event in one part of the region sets off something elsewhere, so these changes in Syria do nothing for the Palestinians, indeed, if the annexation goes ahead, and Smotrich and Ben-Gvir want Palestinians out of both Gaza and the West Bank, this presents Jordan with its own existential crisis -where are 4 million Arabs going to live?
"a major refugee crisis along the west bank of the River Jordan would unfold and the Jordanian government would come under tremendous pressure from its partners, especially the US, to change its policy. Refusing to do so would risk severely harming relations with the Trump White House."
The return of Donald Trump is bad news for Jordan | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
The potential outcome here is the end of the Hashemite dynasty in Jordan, something Saudi Arabia would support (it tried to depose King Abdullah via one of Hussein's sons a few years ago), while Jordan would lose its legal right to control the Haram es-Sharif in Jerusalem, a win for Netanyahu.
But chaos in Jordan is not a win for anyone. In the end, there might be regime change in Syria, though we cannot yet know how if it wins, HTS will rule, or even where, if it does or does not accept Kurdish autonomy in the North-East. We can assume Russia and Iran throw in the towel, as is already evident. We can't be sure Israel will stop bombing Syria, but again and again Palestinians remain at the core, and while Israel might claim victory over its long established claim that 'Jordan is Palestine', does it really want millions of angry Palestinians separated by what used to be called the River Jordan, in some places more like a stream you can jump over.
Long way to go and lots of unknowns to deal with.
Reports claim Asad has fled the country, I think they are true.
What we don't know is if, or how HTS can Govern, if they claim the right to do so. There are multiple factions in Syria, as there have been in Libya, and HTS does not and will not have total territorial control for some time.
The key player in this, in my humble opinion, is Saudi Arabia. This is an opportunity for the Kingdom to begin its long cherished dream of ruling all of the Middle East, from Turkey in the North to Yemen in the South, from Israel in the West, to Iraq in the East.
For the time being, Israel is safe as there is too much money and technology there for MbS to intervene there, and I daresay MbS has channels to Netanyahu, though one notes Smotrich saying Israel would not stop at Gaza or the West Bank until it reaches Damascus, the sort of Braggadoccio that now seems fanciful, though I don't doubt Israel will continue to bomb parts of Syria even if only to make it clear to HTS that it can.
HTS says it is not ISIS or al-Qeda, but that remains to be seen, but it has a mammoth job on its hands -and where has all the Asad Family Business money gone?
Others winning here: Turkey, as per my previous post.
Unknown: how, if they do, Russia and Iran react, if not now, over the next year.
And the US. We have already had a statement of stunning ignorance from the Idiot-
""Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT," Trump said on Truth Social.
The President-elect added, "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"",
'There are 900 U.S. troops stationed there': Experts outraged after Trump's latest comment
So if President Biden withdraws US troops from Syria, will the sky fall in on Fox News, will it be 'another' humiliation?
All to play for now, only this is not a game.
This article in today's Telegraph offers an interesting perspective. How Sinwar's gamble set off a domino effect, but not the one he wanted.
Is this a victory for Israel? In the short term, it does neutralize Iran, but does this 're-shape the Middle East' as Netanyahu said he wants Israel's actions to achieve?
Iran could 'retreat' and limit its support for Hizbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi in Yemen, but it could also enter negotiations with the US, in which it argues that if it stops supporting these groups, and indeed, goes further to distance its relations with Russia, then the reforming Govt could also say to the US 'see, we are doing what you want' -and even suggest a rapprochment is on the cards, though Ayatollah Khamane'i doesn't want it -tensions in Iran could determine this. But I think in return, if Iran agrees with other OPEC -ie Saudi Arabia- on oil production which benefits all, it might still insist on having its own nuclear weapon, or even agree to stop it if the US becomes a friend -Trump is known for seeing everything as a transaction and could agree to something that will shock people in the US as well as the world.
The problem for Israel is that all of its achievements were funded and armed by the US, and while there is scope for a deal with Saudi Arabia, the problem that just won't go away is right in front of everyone: the Palestinians, and on that Israel and Saudi Arabia cannot agree.
So in the medium to long term, we have no idea how the changes in Syria will pan out. Will the displaced inside Syria 'return home', as might be the case with the refugees in Jordan and Turkey?
Here is the Telegraph article
How Oct 7 led to the fall of Syria - and the retreat of Iran
Immaterial. The sheer higher amount, coupled with the much higher fed interest rates, brought on by the feckless foppish dolt's asinine policies which put inflation at 40 year highs for several years running, makes the interest due each year MUCH higher than in was in 2020.
It only took a couple days.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
I was on 4 star command HQ staffs for a while and have a deep interest and knowledge of the area. But it's all TS. To coina phrase, I could tell you, but I'd have to kill you.
Why make so much effort to buff up your ego, and even kill someone when all that is required is informed comment? If you know Syria so well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
No egos here (except maybe yours, because you're always insulting me). It's just that you don't know what I know and you're not going to know.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
Sounds like John Cage 'I have nothing to say, and I'm saying it', only in your case I don't think it's Zen. I don't think my disappointment with you is insulting, but a reflection, in part of your rejection of historical fact, in part your lack of real interest, and in part your need to post meaningless phrases. But as I think I have said before, this reflects the poor quality of American education, though there is always time for you to read a book or a journal and not rely on vacuous innuendo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
Hard to believe that a weekend of such momentous events in the Middle East cannot excite a debate, but nothing surprises me anymore.
It's an inside military joke that enlisted folks like to pull off on Officers. I even fell for it once when I was a LT, but after I got TS/SCI clearance, that no longer worked. You don't / didn't get it, so that's all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
I have a lot of other issues much closer to home to deal with and my middle east service is (I hope) all in the past.