The General Election in the UK, 2024

This may be a roll call of 14 years of Failure, but it doesn't mean that the next 14 years will reverse those policies, improve on them, or not run up a list of their own failures. On one level I wish Starmer well, but I am too old to believe that anything other than marginal improvements here and there is the most likely outcome of a Labour Govt, while on other issues, for example, Israel and Palestine, I have no faith in Labour at all.

An (incomplete) list of every terrible policy the Conservatives have inflicted on Britain since 2010 | Jonn Elledge | The Guardian

I can't see the details but the New York Times offers a contrast to the post above, some of which can be seem on the front page. Earnings are down, local govt grants have been cut, taxes are up so their middle passage -'About the same' -doesn't sound right, but they might be using a different set of stats or parameters to reach these results.

The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos (nytimes.com)

What Got Better (and Worse) in Britain Under the Conservatives - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

On one thing the polls were right: that Labour would secure a handsome majority in the House of Commons without a handsome increase in the number of people voting for them. The leader, Sir Keir Starmer, was elected but his share of the vote in his constituency in London compared to 2019 fell by 14%. Some candidates failed to win seats because independents split the Labour vote, which is also the case in some seats where the Conservatives clearly lost seats because of Reform UK though in others even those two party votes combined would not have been enough to beat either Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

The result has decimated the Conservative Party, and former Cabinet members too, but those that remain indicate that the Party is likely to remain on the 'right' of British politics -they can't do much about Labour, but are looking over their shoulders at Reform UK and thus may feel a need to steal their thunder.

Reform UK had a good night, though Farage's claim they would attract 6 million votes was out by 2, though he is now an MP for the first time with a couple of mates to help him, perhaps to avoid Parliamentary duties, if he is as slack in the Commons as he was when a member of the European Parliament.

Is Reform UK a genuine threat? Only slightly. It is obvious that so far Immigration is its only recognizable policy and that it was the one thing they hammered on during the campaign. If Labour can 'stop the boats' crossing the channel, and even reduce net immigration over the next two years, Reform UK will have its major issue undermined.

But Farage has form -not so much winning elections, but failing to be a good leader of a political party. Two months ago he insisted he would spend this summer in the USA campaigning for Donald Trump (who publicly congratulated him on becoming an MP) and that he had no interest in getting involved in British politics, outside his TV show on GB News (which I assume he will now have to give up).

His record as leader of UKIP and then the Brexit Party is not good. What characterised UKIP was a succession of candidates who had to be sacked, suspended or who resigned when making public statements so outrageous the leadership had no choice, or who attacked the leadership and even before yesterday's poll candidates stood down, or even denounced the Party for its occasional but naked racism, of the kind which slots Reform UK into the space made vacant by the neo-Nazi parties of the past, such as the National Front and the BNP. Farage himself once described UKIP members and even candidates as 'low grade people' and I doubt the new cohort seeing a chance of becoming an MP will be of a 'better class' than the ones who flocked to UKIP or the Brexit Party -Brexit now being a vote loser.

Millionaire Richard Tice was the leader until Farage, the majority shareholder in Reform UK, shoved him aside, in an act we know little about. Reform UK have some of the media on their side, notably the Telegraph, where Tice's partner, Isabel Oakshott writes columns of opinion that go beyond immigration to feed at and feed the trough of 'anti-Woke' Libertarians.

Because if Farage does more to broadcast the policies of Reform UK, voters might not like it: radical plans to privatize the NHS, slash immigration to zero, engage in 'culture wars' of the kind we see in the US, may lose the support they currently have, and with internal splits and public rows, and the autocratic personality of Farage himself, they will remain a minority party, if that. Farage walked away from UKIP -twice- and could do so with Reform UK, he is in it for himself as much as the UK.

it is now up to Labour to deliver on their promises, a hard task and one that will be met with a hostile press and media. I wish them well, but I don't see instant successes as was seen when Blair became PM in 1997.

Forgot to add that the Conservative Party was wiped out of Wales, and the vote in Scotland was a disaster for the Scottish National Party. Labour is now has the largest number of MPs in both countries.

Most satisfying result of the cull was Liz Truss losing her seat, so happy to see her ousted with a 26.9% swing.

Shame that Penny Mordaunt was removed though, a capable MP and sword bearer.

Reform were forecast 13 seats in the exit poll but only got 4 and I think you are right once the anger has died down their ‘contract’ will be under the microscope and interesting to see whether Farage buggers off to the USA to brown nose his chum in the November election.

Down to Starmer’s changed Labour then, rather him than me….

Let's hope this becomes a worldwide trend. France seems shaky, though.

Re Penny Mordaunt: had she kept her seat, she would now be one of the favourites to become Party leader. If the BBC is right (this lunchtime) the new Parliamentary party is not as 'right wing' as it was under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, but out in the country the Conservative Associations are further right than their MPs -it is not know how many former UKIP and Brexit Party members joined their local associations to 'firm up' Brexit, so it will be interesting to see if they desert the party for Reform UK. But it does mean a fracture that the party will find it hard to heal, not least as Liz Truss refused to accept that the policies she was part of over the last 14 years were responsible for them losing power. If the Party does revert to its 'One Nation' tradition, Jeremy Hunt might try for the leadership again, while Suella Braverman would represent the more 'cultural war' faction.

As for Farage, last night he declared that an Earthquake in British politics was going to be the start of a national movement. Hmmm...in 2014 after the European Parliament elections

"Farage said the result justified the description of an earthquake because "never before in the history of British politics has a party seen to be an insurgent party ever topped the polls in a national election"".
Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake | European elections | The Guardian

And if he does create a national movement, I doubt he will be able to control it. Too early to say, but let us give the new lot a chance to -dare I say it?- Deliver something positive.

It's notable that the actual Labour vote wasn't very impressive - up only 1.7% to 33.8%. The result was a rejection of the previous government rather than any enthusiasm for the alternative. They better hope Conservative and Reform don't amalgamate.

FPP certainly delivers some wildly disportionate outcomes. How can a system be democratic when a party can win 2/3 of the seats with only 1/3 of the vote?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo

Let's hope this becomes a worldwide trend. France seems shaky, though.

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The common pattern seems to be that incumbents are struggling everywhere. People are unhappy with the way things are going, so they take it out on whoever is in government.

The other common pattern in many countries is a shift away from the traditional two major parties, which is another sign of dissatisfaction. Labour and Conservative combined received only 57.5% of the vote, which I think might a historically low share.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...4-live-in-full

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

It's notable that the actual Labour vote wasn't very impressive - up only 1.7% to 33.8%. The result was a rejection of the previous government rather than any enthusiasm for the alternative. They better hope Conservative and Reform don't amalgamate.

FPP certainly delivers some wildly disportionate outcomes. How can a system be democratic when a party can win 2/3 of the seats with only 1/3 of the vote?

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The answer is that, strictly speaking, the citizens of the UK elect an MP to represent a place, their constituency, which is why Independent candidates with no party affiliation can not only seek election but get elected too, there are more Independents in this House of Commons -though in some cases, eg Jeremy Corbyn, it is because they have been expelled from their previous party. It also means that any MP can become Prime Minister, if the House of Commons so votes. Party affiliation has only been significant since the Reform Act of 1832, prior to which 'Whigs and Tories' were more loose affiliations than parties in the sense we understand it today.

We held a Referendum on voting procedures in 2011 when PR was rejected. This might become an issue again, the problem being that even supporters of PR are divided over which system best suits the UK -in General Elections, as PR is or will be used in the elections of Devolved Assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

But yes, it does mean that even with a large majority, Labour will be vulnerable to even modest swings in some constituencies, so if it hangs on for 5 years, the election in 2029 could produce another lopsided result.

But a) Single Member Simple Plurality does give the Govt the secure base in the Commons on which to pass legislation; and b) PR would benefit extremist parties like Reform UK though again, the outcome depends on the system. For example, parties have to get at least 5% of the vote to be admitted to the Bundestag in Germany, where in Israel 3% not only gets you into the Knesset, but into Government too. Farage wants PR precisely to obtain the power he lacks through the existing system, though what he would do with that power is not certain, given most of the time he is just a loud mouth preferring to stir up discontent, like his idol Trump, rather than deal with real issues in a realistic way.