Covid-19 Politics

A summary of the evidence Dominic Cummings gave yesterday. An epidemiologist argued that had someone from his discipline been in charge the Covid policy would have been simple: shut everything down, but that this would have not been politically acceptable. Cummings is candid about the failures of the Johnson govt, and at their worst they are a savage indictment of incompetence in Govt, not least when a risk exercise was carried out in 2016- Exercise Cygnus- to assess the UK’s ability to manage a major crisis such as a pandemic, though I don’t think Cummings referred to it. In other regards, the UK govt was as reluctant to take immediate action as many others, and it may be because of their prior experience with SARS that countries like Taiwan and South Korea acted swiftly and effectively, and it will be left to posterity to decide if the UK govt could have created an effective test and trace system earlier than the botched system it created in March 2020.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/9-explosiv...163154529.html

In Ohio they have a lottery that they enter people into if they get vaccinated. I understand from an international perspective this can all seem in poor taste. Vaccines have not been equitably distributed around the world and the U.S. and several other countries did get priority. Now our citizens don't think free vaccines that could save their lives are incentive enough they need financial incentives.

Still, I'm for using whatever reasonable incentives can get people vaccinated. Using the supply we've secured will only save lives particularly as we get exponential benefits in going from 50% of the population vaccinated to 60+ percent.

Personally, I think states should consider tax incentives to get people to get their families vaccinated. It would pay for itself in terms of its benefits.

https://www.vox.com/2021/5/28/224586...virus-pandemic

https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/...fyq-story.html

There are probably many stories like this but I found this woman's decency and heart to be very touching. The story of the last social media posts of someone who died of covid. She was very sweet but the ending makes me sad.

Now that things are opening up again and case levels are dropping I hope people remember the horrible toll this has taken on some families. Earla Dimitriadis is one of over 600,000 people in the U.S who died (3.7 million worldwide). Stories like this are taking place in India every single day by the thousands right now:(.

So much for following the science.

COVID-19 state of emergency will last beyond June 15, Newsom says

www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-04/covid-19-state-of-emergency-will-last-beyond-june-15-newsom-says

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Now that things are opening up again and case levels are dropping I hope people remember the horrible toll this has taken on some families. Earla Dimitriadis is one of over 600,000 people in the U.S who died (3.7 million worldwide). Stories like this are taking place in India every single day by the thousands right now:(.

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Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

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Originally Posted by filghy2

Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

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You're right. It is still raging in many places and each new variant brings slightly new properties, including partial, though incomplete evasion of some types of immunity. We don't know how long the vaccines immunize us for and most importantly how long against each variant.

I follow a scientist named Shane Crotty on twitter and have found some of his explanations helpful. In the first article he talks about booster shots and variants. The second is a research study showing the durability of different types of immunity beyond antibodies in people with natural infection. Several scientists I follow say those who were vaccinated generally have more robust immune responses than those with natural infection.

We're going to know we need boosters when there are more breakthrough infections. I think the breakthrough infections are being sequenced to see whether certain variants are overrepresented as well.

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/jun/0...mended-winter/

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte.../6529/eabf4063

Quote:

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Originally Posted by filghy2

Unfortunately this pandemic may not be over until it is under control everywhere, and we are a long way from achieving that. The more it continues to circulate in parts of the world, the more the risk that it might mutate in dangerous ways.

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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...-forever-virus

This article really underlines the point you're making. It talks not just about the variants we've seen but the ones we will see and the impossibility of ever eradicating this virus, particularly given the fact that it is now identified in multiple species including monkeys, cats, and deer. I wonder if those animals ever worried about disease carrying domesticated humans.

The lead author of the article is Larry Brilliant who worked with the WHO to help eradicate smallpox. Another author is vaccine maker Rick Bright who Trump fired for saying he didn't think there was evidence hydroxychloroquine works. They paint a fairly ominous picture and offers recommendations.

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Originally Posted by broncofan

This article really underlines the point you're making. It talks not just about the variants we've seen but the ones we will see and the impossibility of ever eradicating this virus, particularly given the fact that it is now identified in multiple species including monkeys, cats, and deer.

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Thanks. This does raise a tricky question for Australia, given we've relied so much on tight controls on international travel - which the government has indicated will remain for at least another year. At some point presumably we have to take a calculated risk as we can't stay cut off from the rest of the world for ever. Only 21% of the population has been vaccinated so far, which is way behind the US or UK. I only got my first shot this week.

I had to chuckle about the two authors' names being Brilliant and Bright.

A quick review of some issues:

1) The UK Govt plan to end lockdown measures on June 21st may be delayed by a month owing to the surge of new cases in some parts of the country-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ockdown-easing

2) Scientists have yet to find the precise link in the zoonosis claim- so far analysis of samples does not show a direct link between Bats and Humans, but there might be an intermediary link, eg Mink. The link looks at the various theories, ie
1) Direct Spillover from animals to humans
2) Spillover via Intermediary host
3) Introduction via refrigerated or frozen food
4) Labratory leak
-In other words, there is still a lot of research to be done before we can know where Covid-19 originated.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...four-scenarios

3) The claim the virus leaked from a Lab in Wuhan remains unproven. If it didn't happen, there will be no proof. If it did and the Chinese Govt has destoyed the evidence, again, there will be no proof. But some argue the sample analyses show no trace of human manipulation as one would find with lab-created materials. Moreover, the US Biologist, David Baltimore has rowed back on a claim he says was over-stated with regard to the Wuhan Laboratory as a/the source of the virus-
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-gun-1.4588965

What we do know:
Masks work
Social/Physical Distancing works
Vaccnes work

The question now is will the G7 and other States co-ordinate a truly Global vaccination campaign -it has been done before with Smallpox even if at first it suffered from some of the fractured decision-making and financial constraints we see today-
https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html

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Originally Posted by filghy2

I had to chuckle about the two authors' names being Brilliant and Bright.

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:tongue: I paused at the name Brilliant but I can't believe I overlooked Bright. Long history of achievement in the Bright and Brilliant families.

I got my shots a little while back and I've gotten more comfortable over time. The people I come across have become very comfortable very quickly. A bit too comfortable in my view. While no one decision is outrageous, lots of people entirely back to normal. I try to avoid large crowds but have been forced to attend two functions. I am satisfied being out and about, socializing with people I know and I don't really mind wearing a mask indoors or avoiding congregated settings when I can...

Thanks for the info about Australia. I've been curious but haven't kept up with it. You guys did such a great job, especially with isolating people with covid while they recovered and keeping the case load and death toll low. 21% is not a bad start at all and maybe when you are at numbers like 50% or so, the combination of some population immunity with your good health controls will encourage your govt to open up travel again.