Covid-19 Politics

Something has gone wrong when a thread on Covid ends up with those insignificant nobodies. I make a point of not finding out, as I see the headlines when I log out of my yahoo email, and can't be bothered to google them either, like Britney Spears or some rapper who has made a fortune shouting obscenities into a microphone. In the real world, people like me are stil waiting for the 'essential' second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, while debate rots the soul with its perpetual questions about vaccinating children, lifting lockdown restrictions, new variants, and now the decision, a year after this virus first appeared to force people arriving in the UK fro designated destinations to quarantine themselves -and at their own expense- in hotels.

It remains to be seen that if, as Boris Johnson says, the lockdown can only be lifted to be permanent, if that is what happens. I think here in the UK, the problems is not the science so much as the interface between science and politics, and the pressure Johnson is under to make more of the Government's proposals subject to a vote in Parliament, and the demands of the markets to open or die. Throw in the mess Brexit is creating for so many firms, and 2021 is going to be an 'interesting' year -Boris may get a postive 'bounce' if the Covid situation eases as the year goes on, but he has no free pass as far as Brexit goes, because he owns it.

The best he can hope for is that the SNP falls apart owing to the tactics of Alex Salmond, even if it turns out the internal machie done him wrong -or will the average voter stick with Nickola come what May?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by broncofan

A couple other issues scientists are trying to work through: As they develop updated boosters that are more effective against emerging variants, does it require them to go through all three phases of clinical trials or is there some expedited process?

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/22/h...-variants.html

Covid vaccine: FDA says shots for new variants won't need large clinical trials (cnbc.com)

We've got an answer from U.S. regulators. The process will be expedited. Take a look at the articles if you're curious but boosters (or re-formulated vaccines) may be necessary for the South African variant.

NYC sports teams can now have up to 2,000 fans in their respective arenas.

Movie theaters are set to reopen on March 5th.

The subway now only closes between the hours of 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. for cleaning.

Who would have thought all it would take for Governor Cuomo to ease up on restrictions in NYC is a major scandal.

A round-up of recent developments to add to Blackchubby's post above.

1) The AstraZeneca Vaccine
Germany, Sweden, Belgium and France have reversed their decision not to use the AstraZeneca vaccine in over 65's. From my perspective, it might appear to be more efficient to have a one-jab rather than a two-jab vaccine, but the main purpose is to be vaccinated, and if that happens over a 12-week period, what's the problem?

2) Claims over the use of Foetal tissue in vaccines in the US

"Roman Catholic leaders in St. Louis and New Orleans are advising Catholics that the COVID-19 vaccine from Johnson & Johnson, newly approved for use in the U.S., is "morally compromised" because it is produced using a cell line derived from an aborted fetus.
...
While not disputing the church officials' contention that an abortion-derived cell line is used in the production, Johnson & Johnson issued a statement Tuesday stressing that there is no fetal tissue in its vaccine."
https://abc7news.com/johnson--vaccin...lics/10385381/

This from the Roman Catholic Church, morally compromised because of its leading role in the slaughter of approx 100 million human beings in the Americas from the 15th through to the 20th Century.

3) The (phased) ending of Covid Protocols
Boris Johnson may be getting some applause for the UK's management of its vaccination programme, but we still do not know if the decline in deaths, hospitalizations and new cases is permanent, as there are some signs of a slowdown in decline in parts of the West Midands, London and the South-East. Because the vaccination programme has yet to target the 40-50 age range the prospect of new infections taking place in this cohort has risen, with some concern that citizens with a Pakistani heritage where large families live in one household are a risk.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-04/...fore-their-jab

This in turn suggests that the phased end to the lockdown that begins wiith the staggered re-opening of schools next Monday (March 8th) is a calculated risk -whatever Johnson says, we have to wait and see.

I suggest the decision made in Texas by the Governor is of a similar level of risk, or may be reckless depending on the stats. San Francisco appears to have some good stats in the context of both California and the US-

"...the lowest death rate from COVID-19 of any major city in the U.S., as well as the lowest number of cases ending in death. Its cumulative death rate is 36 per 100,000 people, compared to 219.3 for New York City and 162.7 for Los Angeles. Its case fatality rate was just over 1%, in contrast to the Big Apple’s 4.45%. The COVID death rate in San Francisco, a city and county of over 880,000 people, is currently a seven-day average of 4.54 deaths per 100,000, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Tracker.
https://www.fodors.com/world/north-a...ate-in-the-u-s

But as we know how easily the virus, and variants of the virus can spread, are relaxations of Covid protocols taking place too soon, whether it is within the US, the UK, or anywhere else?

4) Variants and their Potential
I don't know enough -does anyone?- about the risks posed to teachers by children, or indeed the potential for children to become a new cohort of infected cases, given that we still do not know enough about variants of the virus and who is most at risk. The Nature review in the link below, points to research -not yet peer reviewed- which argues

"The researchers found that adults living with kids — especially high-school students — who went into school were more likely to report COVID-19 symptoms or test positive for SARS-CoV-2. But the researchers also found that schools could eliminate that risk entirely by implementing at least seven mitigation measures from a list that included requiring students and teachers to wear masks, preventing parents from entering schools and increasing the spacing between desks. The findings have not yet been peer reviewed."

New Variants can be expected, and I think most epidemiologists believe that vaccines will deal with them, not least because vaccines are modified on a regular basis to deal with such evets. Whether or not these new variants will have negative effects on children or adults not vaccinated must be considered a possibility.

Some of the above issues are reviewed here-
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

A couple thoughts. I agree with you generally that vaccines will be tailored to new variants. The variants are at least a minor concern as sequencing in most countries has been poor and the South African variant is able to evade immune response for some vaccines. It appears that even if vaccines aren't as effective at preventing disease they might be somewhat effective in preventing severe illness and death but I haven't seen a lot of data on that.

Moderna has submitted its booster for the south african variant to the fda for phase 1. I think companies will respond quickly to the new variants but as infections are rampant in many parts of the world expect more mutation. It's not a cause for panic but is something to be vigilant about.

The announcement by the governor of Texas is the kind of demagoguery that has made the pandemic worse. It has no upside and is in the spirit of trying to exploit people's frustration with an undeniably difficult period of time.

Lots of things I'd like to get back to but can't because I don't want to get sick and don't want to get people I'm in contact with sick. I do think things will get better in a lot of places by summer so there's that.

Linked below is a challenging article. I agree with a lot of it, but wonder if the author is right to argue that an aerosol borne virus is ineffective in the open air. I have often been on crowded streets in the open air where the close proximity of other people could be as effective a location of infection as a bus or a night-club, so I am not convinced that being in the open air is always safe, as it depends on where one is, and how many people there are around.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...kfired/618147/

And a new survey in the UK reveals this, below, though I just don't get it -we are vaccinated when young against a host of diseases, so what's the problem with the Covid vaccine?

"Although the debate on vaccine hesitancy has focused primarily on ethnicity, the ONS report suggests that the variation by age is even more striking. It says a black person is more than six time as likely as a white person to express vaccine hesitancy. But it says someone aged 16 to 29 is more than 17 times as likely to express vaccine hesitancy as someone aged 80 or over. (Among the over-80s, vaccine hesitancy is just 1%.)

Tim Vizard, a public policy analyst at the ONS, said:
Over the past three months, we’ve seen people become increasingly positive about the Covid-19 vaccines, with over nine in 10 adults saying they would have it if offered, or having already had it. Of those who are hesitant about receiving the vaccine, it’s younger and black adults who are most likely to say this, with concerns around side effects, long term effects and how well the vaccine works being the most common reasons."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...urn-in-england

The US is close to administering 3 million shots a day of pfizer and moderna. If we can keep that up, it means by June 8 or so we will have administered 270 million more shots.

Since most of these are two shot regimens we might have close to half the population vaccinated and a higher percent with partial protection. I still wonder what this all means for herd immunity since the threshold has been found to be very high. There have been places in Brazil where more than 70% of the people ended up getting infected.

By summer it's expected that supply of the vaccine might be greater than demand and people's desire to get vaccinated may become the limiting factor. I hope some of that can be overcome with education because the rate of serious side effects for pfizer and moderna is very low, particularly compared to the threat posed by the virus.

But, again, here is the problem -surely the same cohort of the population inoculated in their early childhood against diseases such as measles, polio, chicken pox etc, cannot on that basis justify refusing the Covid vaccine? It only makes sense if people actually believe what a certified idiot like Trump says, or possibly their local 'pastor' or religious head? I mean, more than 500,000 deaths and 29 million cases -don't these statistics have any impact on the public?

"Nearly one-third of all Republicans are opposed to receiving coronavirus vaccinations, according to a growing number of polls, as reports indicate many Americans rejecting the jab have cited former President Donald Trump’s misinformation about Covid-19.
Those who have said they were “definitely not” planning on getting a coronavirus vaccine suggested the global pandemic had been overblown by the media and the Democratic Party in interviews with the Washington Post for a report published on Monday.
The comments largely reflected the former president’s misleading statements and outright falsities about the novel virus as it swept through the United States last year, at a time when Mr Trump was claiming the virus would disappear and was not a threat to the nation. More than 500,000 Americans have since died as a result of the pandemic.
“I think the president set the tone early on by downplaying the coronavirus or comparing it to the flu,” Robert Coon, a GOP consultant in Arkansas, told the newspaper. “For a lot of people, the first impression was that it’s not that big a deal, and it’s kind of hard to come back from that.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nearly-thi...150408348.html

I think Stavros' post is correct that Trump set the tone early by making concern about the virus a political issue. Most of the people I've seen who are skeptical about vaccines aren't the usual cult of antivaxxers but are making bad arguments about cost-benefit in this case. They will say that the risk of death for young people is so low that the risks of the vaccine are not justified. From what we've seen so far the vaccines have a very low rate of serious reactions. Risk of death from covid infection is not nearly as low in any of these groups (I say confidently for any of group over 18; at least).

Politicization of the virus by Trump and the impression that concern about the virus makes one a liberal is now a major obstacle. So now we see people who are not part of the cult of antivaxxers pretending to make nuanced arguments about cost-benefit. It's because Trump's leadership legacy was to make skepticism about treatment and indifference to public health a conservative value.

Some guy named Rover or something was claiming in the general discussion section that covid was like the flu. Not only did this appear foolish early on but I don't know how they don't feel like complete fools at this point. Over 500,000 dead in a year with people taking precautions? Flu kills an average of about 35,000 or so and unless it's a flu pandemic never more than 60,000 in the U.S.