What To Do About Syria

Assad reported on the news just now to have "taken delivery" of the first shipment of advanced missiles from the Russians. Israel said to be "very concerned' but earlier remarks by Netanyahu that they would destroy such shipments have now been denied. with Israeli officials reportedly in Moscow for talks with the Russians to try and stop such shipments.

The conflict is now in serious overspill into parts of Lebanon. Hizbollah declaring their full support, militarily, for Assad.

As Stavros notes US involvement in this conflict, via special forces, is already pretty certain.

After the EU decision how long before there will 'boots o the ground" there? It gets uglier by the day.

With Saudi Arabia and Qatar already funding the rebels this could very easily become a much wider conflagration.

Will the election in Iran make a difference? Unlikely - as the council of religious leaders (the Guardian Council) headed by supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei have already ruled out Rafsanjani from the ballot together with Ahmadinejad's annointed successor and key figures from the green revolt.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-peace/2...ticizes-mccain

Rand Bashes McCain: US 'Will Be Allied with Al Qaeda'



On Friday night, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), speaking at the Reagan President Library, bashed Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for McCain’s visit to Syria and encouragement of US involvement in the country’s civil war. “I’m very worried about getting involved in a new war in Syria,” Paul stated. “People say, ‘Assad is such a bad guy.’ He is. But on the other side we have al Qaeda and now Nusra. They say there are some pro-Western people and we’re going to vet them. Well, apparently we’ve got a Senator over there who got his picture taken with some kidnappers, so I don’t know how good a job we’re going to do vetting those who are going to get the arms.”



Paul is an advocate of isolationism with regard to Syria, while McCain has stated that the United States should establish a no-fly zone to get started in Syria. “There’s two ironies you have to overcome if you want to get involved in a war in Syria,” Paul stated. “The first irony is you will be allied with al Qaeda. The second irony is most of the Christians are on the other side, so you may be arming Islamic rebels who may well be killing Christians. Does that make Assad a good person? No. I don’t think there are any good people in this war, and there are some tragically innocent people whoa re going to be caught in the middle. But I just don’t know that arming one side is going to make the tragedy any less.”


http://cdn.breitbart.com/mediaserver...filibuster.png

We missed our opportunity to get involved back 1.5 to 2 years ago. At that time there was a moderate opposition group that if in power would be reasonably approaching western standards and ties to us as well as the EU.

However, they have all been slaughtered, the rebels now make the brotherhood seem to be liberal, and who wants the current despot regime.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rusty Eldora

We missed our opportunity to get involved back 1.5 to 2 years ago. At that time there was a moderate opposition group that if in power would be reasonably approaching western standards and ties to us as well as the EU.

However, they have all been slaughtered, the rebels now make the brotherhood seem to be liberal, and who wants the current despot regime.

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When I see you write 'We missed our opportunity to get involved' I shudder.
There is a documentary on the Iraq War which began on BBC2 last week, in which Dick Cheney says 'You gotta work with what you got. Anyone was better than Saddam', and Tony Blair: 'I took the view that we needed to remake the Middle East'. That Cheney thought Saddam worse than Osama bin Laden suggests tunnel vision and a pre-conceived plan; in Blair's case it is pure, destructive arrogance. Neither men took the view that the people who actually live in the Middle East should be asked: their fate was to be decided as a 'Revolution from Above' imposed on them from Washington and London.
Outsiders have been trying to change Afghanistan since the fall of the monarchy in 1973; the USSR tried to change Afghan society but the west and an 'Islamic International' intervened to prevent it, not because they wanted Afghanistan to change, they just didn't like the USSR; 40 years on from 1973 NATO and the UN are (still) trying to change Afghan society, as if permanent war was the right condition in which to do it.
Would you have asked the Syrians a few years ago for permission to intervene and change their government? In 1919 Woodrow Wilson sent the King-Crane Commission to the region and it reported that the Arabs wanted to choose their own government. The French were having none of it and after defeating the Arabs at Maysaloun in 1920 ordered Feisal, the Hashemite who was to have become head of state, to get lost. When the General in charge, Henri Gouraud arrived in Damascus, it is alleged he rested his boot on the tomb of Crusader hero, Salah ad-Din and shouted 'We're back!'.
Something tells me that 'we' have made enough mistakes in the Middle East to learn not to get involved in the internal politics. Are we really so good at this that the region cannot change without us for the better? John McCain is trying to expose a weakness in Obama's position, as if Iraq never happened; and in terms of where Iraq is now, externally manufactured regime change was not exactly a model solution to the problems of dictatorship.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stavros

John McCain is trying to expose a weakness in Obama's position, as if Iraq never happened; and in terms of where Iraq is now, externally manufactured regime change was not exactly a model solution to the problems of dictatorship.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...sad-upper-hand

McCain accuses White House of idling while Assad gains 'upper hand' in Syria

A week after meeting Syrian rebels, Republican senator says strife could spread throughout region unless US acts


The Republican senator John McCain has sharpened his criticism of White House policy on Syria, accusing the Obama administration of sitting idly by while President Bashar al-Assad gains the upper hand in the country's civil war.
In the wake of a secret visit to Syria last week, McCain, an influential foreign policy voice within the GOP, redoubled his pressure on the Obama administration to intervene in the conflict, claiming that the longer the US waited and watched the more the situation was unraveling.
"Thanks to increased weapons, thanks to Hezbollah fighters, thanks to extremist Shia coming in from Iraq, the Russians pouring weapons in, the Iranian revolutionary Guards, we are seeing unfortunately a battlefield situation where Bashar Assad now has the upper hand," he said.
Speaking on CBS's Face the Nation, McCain presented the state of play on the ground as "tragic" and said it was occurring "while we sit by and watch".
McCain, who suffered a bruising defeat by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, has become a thorn in the side of the US president over foreign policy. He has been the most vocal Republican advocate of intervention in Syria, calling for a no-fly zone to be established over parts of the country, to provide cover for rebel insurgency groups.
The Obama administration has been hesitant, fearful that US forces could become sucked into the conflict just at the time that they are attempting to withdraw from Afghanistan. There is also concern that among the rebel groups there are extremist Sunni influences aligned to al-Qaida – concern that McCain has dismissed. He told Face the Nation that in his view the opposition rebels were "very tough – they're battle hardened. They're very dedicated. They are not al-Qaida; they are not extremists."
The senator for Arizona was scathing about the argument that Assad could be allowed to fall from power as an inevitable result of the unrest that has erupted over the past two years: "Anyone that believes that Bashar Assad is going to go to a conference in Geneva when he is prevailing on the battlefield, it's just ludicrous to assume that."
Another reason for the Obama administration's caution has been fears that the Assad regime has the military capability to bring down US fighter jets and cause significant casualties. Jack Reed, a leading Democratic member of the US Senate armed services committee, told CBS that a no-fly zone would not work. He said it would fail to "effectively deter the Assad regime – they can use artillery, they can use helicopter gunships."

But McCain countered that the safe zone could be established by striking Syrian government runways as well as other sites used by Assad's forces. The objective, he said could be achieved "from a distance, we don't have to risk our pilots".
As politicians continued to squabble over the appropriate response to the deteriorating situation in Syria, the family of an American woman absorbed the shocking news that she had been killed by Assad loyalists in the country. Nicole Mansfield, 33, a Muslim convert, had been in a car that had come under Syrian government attack, alongside a British man, Ali Almanasfi, who also died.
Mansfield's family initially indicated they believed that she had been actively fighting with opposition forces. But over the weekend her daughter, Triana Mansfield, posted a message on Facebook that said she now believed her mother had been forced to stay in the country by the Syrian government and had been killed as a publicity stunt because she was American.
Triana wrote that she wanted her mother's body brought back to the US: "I just want her home, so we can bury her the way she wanted to be buried."


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/i...y_WbJ2TsSEQZgAhttps://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/i...iugw61ENvfKqDOhttp://i1.wp.com/nsnbc.me/wp-content...cain-jihad.jpg

Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, nor Russia did this.

http://b.vimeocdn.com/ts/436/861/436861554_1280.jpg

Anybody follow what happened in Qusayr? Hezbollah doing the heavy lifting here against the "rebels" we support.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...?mod=yahoo_itp

In Qusayr, Signs of Holy War

By SAM DAGHER QUSAYR, Syria—A day after it fell to forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, the remains of this onetime Syrian rebel stronghold spoke of a battle as deep in sectarian wrath as it was in destructive power.


In a landscape of crumbling buildings, empty tank shells and shards of glass and rubble, looting was widespread Thursday. Locals and people who appeared to be pro-Assad soldiers and paramilitants hauled away furniture, electronics and cars toward the city of Homs, to the north, and in the direction of Lebanon, some 10 miles to the south.
What little order prevailed here appeared to be maintained by young fighters from Hezbollah—the Iran-backed Lebanese group that entered Syria to fight alongside government forces in the monthlong ground siege and bombardment that ultimately drove rebels from this strategic town Wednesday.
A four-hour walk in Qusayr revealed the freshest marks of a war that is inflaming Sunnis and Shiites across the region.
Rebels fighting here appeared to be under the sway of Jabhat al-Nusra, a Sunni militia that is linked to al Qaeda: Notices plastered on war-damaged mosques praised the group's defense of Qusayr. In the main Christian church, scenes of Christ's crucifixion, seen by many Muslims as blasphemous, had been ripped from paintings and altarpieces.
On Thursday, by contrast, Shiite religious chants blared from some of the Hezbollah vehicles roaming Qusayr. Graffiti praising holy Shiite figures believed to be persecuted by rival Sunnis more than 1,300 years ago was scrawled on buildings stormed by Hezbollah fighters, who played a leading role in planning and executing the Qusayr offensive.


"Eliminating the terrorist gangs that are bleeding the nation and country is definitely worth our sacrifices," said one Hezbollah member, the leader of a squad of fighters in Qusayr. Dozens of group members were killed here, judging by funeral announcements by the group's media arm. The lives of these fighters, the squad leader said, are a small price to pay to counter the threat he said Sunni extremists pose to Syria and Lebanon.
That echoed statements by Hezbollah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, who has justified his involvement in Syria by saying President Assad's opponents are a threat to the survival of his group and his Shiite constituency. The Syrian regime, dominated by the Shiite-linked Alawite minority, has long been a conduit of arms and logistical support for Hezbollah from their common ally, Iran.
Hezbollah fighters had remained largely out of the spotlight when pro-regime television channels rushed to Qusayr on Wednesday to broadcast images of the regime's victory, with government fighters shown celebrating under newly hoisted Syrian flags.
But on Thursday, dozens of Hezbollah members in military fatigues similar to those worn by Syrian forces patrolled on foot and in SUVs. Most of the Lebanese fighters, who appeared to be in their late teens and 20s, tied yellow and green ribbons to their uniforms and rifles to distinguish themselves from their Syrian allies. Some tied red bandannas to their foreheads in an expression of Shiite fervor.
Moving along streets and alleyways littered with severed power lines and the rubble of buildings,the Hezbollah fighters often squared off against looters.
"Shame on you—don't you know this is someone else's property," the Hezbollah squad leader said to a man in a car-parts shop.
"They are just a few parts for my tractor," the man pleaded.
"Put them back and get the hell out of here," the Hezbollah commander shouted. The man meekly walked away.
Other Hezbollah members watched as locals, as well as uniformed men they identified as belonging to the regime's myriad security apparatuses and loyalist paramilitary groups, crammed pickup trucks and minibuses with appliances and furnishings from homes and shops.


Cars and trucks apparently belonging to Qusayr residents, and filled with more loot, were pulled behind vehicles using tow lines. A tow truck hauled off another car.
"Just to be clear, we have nothing to do with this. Hezbollah does not steal," said a fighter from the group. A few moments later, a man sped past on a motorcycle, a flat-screen television set balanced between his legs and the handlebars.
Many of the Hezbollah fighters praised the rebels' defense of Qusayr, saying they had set up four tiers of defenses, involving sand berms, booby traps and ambushes.
Some of the most intricate defenses were set up next to St. Elias, the town's main church. A section of St. Elias's wall appears to have been knocked down by a tank. Holes scarred the facade, dome and bell tower. The building's now-empty shell was littered with debris and defaced by anti-Assad graffiti.
Before fighting nearly emptied Qusayr of residents, the predominantly Sunni city of 60,000 people had a Christian minority estimated to number 10,000 people. Most of the Christians fled in February 2012 after Islamist fighters battled with several Christian families who supported the regime.
A Homs-based official with the United Nations Children's Fund, or Unicef, said about 6,400 residents fled Qusayr since the start of May and settled in camps in the nearby town of Hasyah.
About 1,000 rebels, activists and injured casualties evacuated Qusayr early Wednesday to Bweyda, a nearby village to the north, activists said. This exit took place after Syrian opposition leader George Sabra called Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and asked him to intervene, according to Hezbollah supporters and people close to Mr. Jumblatt's political party. Mr. Jumblatt coordinated the safe passage with Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa, these people said.
No such deal was made, countered Louay Almokdad, a coordinator for the main rebel faction the Free Syrian Army. Mr. Almokdad said rebels retreated Wednesday because of the intensity of shelling on Qusayr's center. He said their retreat was "one phase in the guerrilla war" over the area.
"We have not struck any deal with Hezbollah," he said. "Killers do not deserve to be negotiated with."
—Nour Malas in Istanbul and Rima Abushakra in Beirut contributed to this article. Write to Sam Dagher at sam.dagher@wsj.com


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8jtp-tQ9zE.../syria_map.jpg

I was one of those who thought the 'power of the people' would be too much for Asad and that he would not survive. The horrible truth is that Asad has survived, the army is still in power, and the opposition is as fractious and divided as it always has been in Syria. It is not dissimilar to Saddam Hussein's survival after Desert Storm/Gulf War 1991 except that Syria is more fluid and Asad has less control territorially than Saddam, although the creation of an autonomous Kurdish-controlled region in the north of Iraq was a significant weakening of Saddam's power. In addition, nobody liked Saddam enough to help him whereas Iran and Russia are crucial to Asad and the Army's survival. I don't see any advance here, the rebels will continue to fight the government and the government will be merciless in its attacks against the rebels; with the assistance of Hezbollah in the border regions.
As has been pointed out before, this could become a proxy war between the 'west' and Iran as well as the Sunna-Shi'a conflict promoted by Saudi Arabia and Iran. John McCain wants to bounce the US into closer intervention because the rebels are losing or at least, not gaining any significant victories, as they did in Libya when taking control of the eastern region around Benghazi. It isn't just the violence that is appalling, so too is the refugee crisis in Jordan and Turkey, while the Austrian component of the UN Peacekeeping force in the Golan Heights has withdrawn opening up a potential flashpoint there.
No advance, no solutions. Grim. Is the conference still going ahead in Geneva this month?

This conflict could easily spin out of control and deepen into a far, far wider conflict. McCain's input is not helpful.

What would victory mean for either side at this point? For Assad a continuation of his tyranny in a land full, in the future, of deeply simmering discontent and anger. Thousands already dead. Millions displaced. Long term peace. Not an easy prospect.

If the "rebels' win a civil war in all probabllity - with the original anti-Government forces facing the growing numbers of Al-Queda inspired Jihadists.

No peace in prospect.

But if either side get further arms - and Assad already has Russian and iranian help - the conflict will spills Syria's borders more profoundly, Lebanon is on the brink. Israel may act if more deadly arms are sent to Damascus. The Gulf States are involved - and have their long running and ongoing territorial arguments with iran. Iraq is splintered along sectarian lines - and killngs are on the rise again. Jordan is unstable. Turkey is offering sanctuary to the rebels - who raid across the border. Bahrain only quelled its own Shia insurgency two years back with armed help from the Saudi Arabians and UAE. A regional war with the US and Russia as offshore antagonists is in prospect.

This has turned into a proxy war with many factions - the US and the West helping the sunni insurgency (with their proxies Saudi Arabia and Qatar funding the "rebels") and the Russians and Iran helping the Assad Government (with Hezbollah now fighting alongside the pro-Assad forces). It has ancient roots - the split between Sunni and Shia. scores even more ancient that the old ones raked over after the break-up of the former Yugoslavia.

As you say, what does Asad win if he wins? More dictatorship. It hasn't worked for 40 years, it isn't going to work for another 40. Even if as I once thought, the Russians engineered a departure of the Asad family, and the army remains in power, it doesn't deal with widespread grievances over jobs and privileges. I am also not really sure what the Russians get out of this, it is damaging their reputation, and they don't have a track record of brokering peace treaties as far as I am aware.

Not sure about Jordan, its demise has been predicted many times before, yet it has remained one of the most stable countries in the region since the tumultuous years of 1967-1971. Instead of waves of immigration destabilising the monarchy, the relative poverty of Jordan's natural resources has been offset by the mini-economic booms that have followed: it isn't just poor refugees who have sought sanctuary there, but those Palestinians from Kuwait in 1990-91 who sold up and brought their capital -then the Iraqi's, and I am sure many Syrians who don't want to live in Moscow have moved their assets and families to Jordan -if not Amman then Irbid. Most of the land in Jordan is owned by the tribes who formed the basis of the Hashemite support in 1921 and ever since, as well as through the armed forces.

The unknown factor that looms is the break-up of the modern states system that replaced the Ottoman provinces after 1918. Iraq is most vulnerable to this with the autonomous Kurdish region behaving already as if it were a separate state -with the Shi'a govt in Baghdad battling a Sunni rebellion, although this is shaped as much by the politics of resources as much as age-old doctrinal rivalry.

Nobody has clean hands in this conflict, and trust is in short supply.

There has been much disicussion of why the Russians support Assad so strongly - with the chinese also refusing to condemn the regime via the UN.

In the Chinese case it might be connected to the Muslim "insurgency" they are fighting in their own back yard in Xanjing province against the Uighar people. This insurgecy, largely unreportable because western journalists are not allowed in the region, is thought to be rather more an attempt by the chinese to impose their own cultural values on a resolutely Muslim people.

Russian support is more perplexing. One simple explanation which is offered is the fact that Syria provides Russia with its last Mediterranean port. But other commentators say it is more personal for Putin - who is said to greatly fear the message that the overthrow and collapse of Assad would send to the Russian people and to Muslim discontents in the Southern part of Russia. The Russians fought a long and hugely bloody struggle against the Muslim Chechen people.