Re: What To Do About Syria
I have linked an article (below) on 'the illusions' of the west, which argues that it is folly to think that arming 'the rebels' will deliver the coup de grace to the Asad regime and enable a transitional government to emerge as its replacement. If anything, the article doesn't go far enough in trying to delineate just how fragmented the opposition is, with some 'groups' in effect being little more than armed gangs robbing and looting on a daily basis, with the inevitable targeting of the antiquities of Palmyra and other famous sites in Syria, much as the historic sites in Iraq were, and continue to be raided. This is turning out on one level to be a Sunna -vs-Shi'a conflict with Saudi Arabia and Qatar determined to roll back the tide of Shi'a and Iranian influence that has dominated Iraqi politics since regime change in 2003 and to some extent regional politics since 1979 -Blair, Bush and Cheney were well aware of the boost to Iran that regime change in Baghdad would have, perhaps this is one bloody chapter in a longer war that was factored in years ago. The recent appeal by the Kurds to Turkey for a resolution to the guerilla war (which had petered out anyway with Ocalan's imprisonment) suggests more game-playing on the northern side. What does Turkey want?
Asad now has only his life to lose, he owns nothing else; he gambled on crushing the rebels, and he lost, taking decades of dictatorship with him down the drain. At some point the army must surely put their long term survival first and move to get rid of him, in an attempt to pretend that things have changed, and then present themselves as crucial players in any re-organisation of politics in Syria -but can even this be done in the face of such widespread collapse? And what hope will there be for the refugees in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon that they can return home? Assuming the homes are still there. Bleak indeed.
http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03...dvised-action/
Re: What To Do About Syria
A good summation. The prospects in the region, even once Assad goes, are bleak with the Jihadist element of the opposition being the most coherent. A civil war following the present confilct is very likely. And as you say Stavros this is a Sunni-Shia argument at heart with a very distinct possibility of the fight spreading to Lebanon (some of the Jihadists have already vowed to cross the border and "deal" with Hizbollah once Assad is overthrown) The Lebanese are already crossing the border and fighting each other in Syria. How long before that fight is brought back home.
Re: What To Do About Syria
The Presidential elections in Iran in June may also add some toxic elements to the dramas, as some are arguing that the Supreme Guardian Council, having got fed up with Ahmadinejad are determined not to make the same mistake twice, and make sure they not only have an obedient President, but that he wins the election too. As this could pit the supporters of Ahmadinejad AND the general population, both of whom think the elections were stolen, an 'Iranian Spring' or 'summer' could be on the cards...though I think it would be an urban rather than a nationwide protest.
Re: What To Do About Syria
That would be interesting .... and worrying. Personally as well. Im due to head out to the region soon on a big project.
Re: What To Do About Syria
Re: What To Do About Syria
Hassan Nasrallah chimes in.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/image...8_67337661.jpg
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22360351
Quote:
Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah in Syria pledge
The head of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has declared that Syria has real friends who will not let it fall to the US, Israel or Islamic radicals.
Hassan Nasrallah said Syria's opposition was too weak to bring down Bashar al-Assad's regime militarily.
He was speaking in an address broadcast on Hezbollah's TV station al-Manar.
BBC Arab affairs analyst Sebastian Usher says the speech tacitly confirmed the group has been involved in fighting in neighbouring Syria.
The Syrian opposition has long claimed the Iranian-backed Shia movement has been supplying fighters to help Mr Assad, a key Hezbollah backer.
"A large number [of rebels] were preparing to capture villages inhabited by Lebanese... so it was normal to offer every possible and necessary aid to help the Syrian army," Mr Nasrallah was quoted as saying by AFP news agency.
The Hezbollah leader said it had never hidden its martyrs, but that reports that large numbers of its fighters had been killed were lies.
He also warned that if a key Shia shrine south of Damascus - that named after Sayida Zeinab, a granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad - were to be destroyed, it would spark revenge that could get out of control.
"If the shrine is destroyed things will get out of control," he said.
Mr Nasrallah tried to reassure his domestic audience that - above all - Hezbollah wanted to avoid the Syrian war coming to Lebanon, adds our correspondent, but many there may find little to comfort them in this latest show of defiance.
The announcement came hours after 14 people were killed by a powerful explosion in Damascus, and a day after Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived a car bomb attack in the Syrian capital.
Government forces and rebels have been fighting in and around Damascus for months, but neither have gained the upper hand.
More than 70,000 people have been killed since fighting between Syrian forces and rebels erupted in March 2011.
Re: What To Do About Syria
Re: What To Do About Syria
A few months ago I assumed Asad would be ousted from within, that the military would decide they could survive without him, with his removal implying something has changed; there could even be elections, though how one holds free and fair elections in Syria in its current state I don't know. Although that is still possible, it appears that the rebel groups have not made the significant advances that would force real change in the regime in Damascus, if anything Damascus may feel emboldened by the lack of the success of a divided opposition. Syria retains Russian support, it has Iranian support and on the Lebanese border areas the support of Hezbollah. The 'red line' that was allegedly crossed with the use of chemical weapons has not amounted to much because the evidence chemical weapons have been used is inconclusive -could this be why Israel has been attacking targets inside Syria -an additional attempt by external parties to force the end of the Asad government? We have to make allowances for the unpredictable, especially in the Middle East, but right now it looks like the balance of power is still controlled in Damascus: changes in Iran next month may or may not make a difference, the growth of the refugee situation in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan might need addressing -but there are still refugees from the 1948 and 1967 Wars so a 'refugee crisis' doesn't necessarily mean a resolution to it will be worked out soon. This conflict could go on for years.
Re: What To Do About Syria
Re: What To Do About Syria
The entire region is far beyond the west pulling strings to change geo-politics to their favor as revolutions in the region have repeatedly shown.
Now if there is mass genocide the US would be negligent not to use its power to end it. But beyond that any attempts at nation building are not only a waste of time but treasure and focus as well.
The best policy toward the region would be to render oil a less valuable product and let all the players both the producers and the rest of region work it out for themselves IMHO.
The US obsession since WWII of managing the politics of the entire globe is wearing thin and serves little purpose beyond protecting the interests of the plutocrats.
