Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
That snow outside is what global warming looks like
Unusually cold winters may make you think scientists have got it all wrong. But the data reveal a chilling truth
- There were two silent calls, followed by a message left on my voicemail. She had a soft, gentle voice and a mid-Wales accent. "You are a liar, Mr Monbiot. You and James Hansen and all your lying colleagues. I'm going to make you pay back the money my son gave to your causes. It's minus 18C and my pipes have frozen. You liar. Is this your global warming?" She's not going to like the answer, and nor are you. It may be yes.
There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere. With the help of the severe weather analyst John Mason and the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, I've been through as much of the scientific literature as I can lay hands on (see my website for the references). Here's what seems to be happening.
The global temperature maps published by Nasa present a striking picture. Last month's shows a deep blue splodge over Iceland, Spitsbergen, Scandanavia and the UK, and another over the western US and eastern Pacific. Temperatures in these regions were between 0.5C and 4C colder than the November average from 1951 and 1980. But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon: the temperatures in western Greenland, northern Canada and Siberia were between 2C and 10C higher than usual. Nasa's Arctic oscillations map for 3-10 December shows that parts of Baffin Island and central Greenland were 15C warmer than the average for 2002-9. There was a similar pattern last winter. These anomalies appear to be connected.
The weather we get in UK winters, for example, is strongly linked to the contrasting pressure between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. When there's a big pressure difference the winds come in from the south-west, bringing mild damp weather from the Atlantic. When there's a smaller gradient, air is often able to flow down from the Arctic. High pressure in the icy north last winter, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, blocked the usual pattern and "allowed cold air from the Arctic to penetrate all the way into Europe, eastern China, and Washington DC". Nasa reports that the same thing is happening this winter.
Sea ice in the Arctic has two main effects on the weather. Because it's white, it bounces back heat from the sun, preventing it from entering the sea. It also creates a barrier between the water and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of heat that escapes from the sea into the air. In the autumns of 2009 and 2010 the coverage of Arctic sea ice was much lower than the long-term average: the second smallest, last month, of any recorded November. The open sea, being darker, absorbed more heat from the sun in the warmer, light months. As it remained clear for longer than usual it also bled more heat into the Arctic atmosphere. This caused higher air pressures, reducing the gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high.
So why wasn't this predicted by climate scientists? Actually it was, and we missed it. Obsessed by possible changes to ocean circulation (the Gulf Stream grinding to a halt), we overlooked the effects on atmospheric circulation. A link between summer sea ice in the Arctic and winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere was first proposed in 1914. Close mapping of the relationship dates back to 1990, and has been strengthened by detailed modelling since 2006.
Will this become the pattern? It's not yet clear. Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute says that the effects of shrinking sea ice "could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia". James Hansen of Nasa counters that seven of the last 10 European winters were warmer than average. There are plenty of other variables: we can't predict the depth of British winters solely by the extent of sea ice.
I can already hear the howls of execration: now you're claiming that this cooling is the result of warming! Well, yes, it could be. A global warming trend doesn't mean that every region becomes warmer every month. That's what averages are for: they put local events in context. The denial of man-made climate change mutated first into a denial of science in general and then into a denial of basic arithmetic. If it's snowing in Britain, a thousand websites and quite a few newspapers tell us, the planet can't be warming.
According to Nasa's datasets, the world has just experienced the warmest January to November period since the global record began, 131 years ago; 2010 looks likely to be either the hottest or the equal hottest year. This November was the warmest on record.
Sod all that, my correspondents insist: just look out of the window. No explanation of the numbers, no description of the North Atlantic oscillation or the Arctic dipole anomaly - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia@@AMEPARAM@@/wiki/File:Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_200 4.JPG" class="image"><img alt="Stub icon" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_2004.JPG/40px-Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_2004.JPG "@@AMEPARAM@@commons/thumb/8/89/Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_2004.JPG/40px-Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_2004.JPG, no reminder of current temperatures in other parts of the world, can compete with the observation that there's a foot of snow outside. We are simple, earthy creatures, governed by our senses. What we see and taste and feel overrides analysis. The cold has reason in a deathly grip.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
I don't know if global warming is true or not but for argument sake let's say it is true.
The thing that bothers me is that people have treated me like trash all my life. From old men messing with me when I was a teen to the bashers who's attacking put me in the hospital and now make me fear walking the streets at night. And then there are the people who refuse to give me a chance at a decent job, I could do regular work but they never give me a chance. And now these same people are telling me to save energy so that their offspring can have a better future. i say fuck 'em, I don't care if their childrens children live in a Mad Maxx society,,, they made my life hell let them have a taste of the same.
I don't debate whether global warming is true or not,,, i just don't care. Let the earth rot for all I care.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Wow the early ice age was brought by carbon emission's.Its a swindle a carbon swindle good for the rich uni types to rip off the workers
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
global climate change is happening, but because the way the sun is acting it would have happened anyway, no matter what they did to the atmosphere...
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Nonsense. The solar constant (the flux of solar energy striking our planet) has been relatively constant (1.366 +/- 0.04 kW per sq. meter) since it [has] first been measured in the early nineteenth century. For nearly twelve years the SOHO observatory, located at the Lagrange point between the Earth and the Sun, has been monitoring particle flux, energy flux, magnetic field strength etc. etc. and over that time detected no significant increases in solar activity. The quack theory that the Sun is somehow driving climate change throughout the solar system is just that, a quack theory. The current climate imbalance on Earth is due in part to the unlocking [of] vast tonnages of once fossilized carbon dioxide and exhausting it into the atmosphere effectively creating a one way blanket that allows light energy from the Sun through to the Earth's surface where it degrades into heat energy which is then trapped beneath the one way blanket. The changes we're experiencing are characteristic of a climate seeking a new equilibrium because of a persistent energy imbalance.
Humans definitely played a role in getting this "ball rolling." Frankly, I think half the world's fossilized carbon dioxide is already out of the bag and there's little hope of getting it back in. Carbon taxes, if they work at all, are only designed to slow the process of letting the rest of our fossilized carbon "out of the bag" and into the atmosphere. I don't have much hope for the efficacy of carbon taxes or carbon trading. Moreover, the Earth's climate is already in motion...that's a lot of inertia to counter. The Earth's climate is definitely changing, and it's not the Sun's fault. It started with the industrial age. To be fair, in the mid nineteenth century no one suspected the Earth could be damaged in any way by mere human beings. The oceans were thought to be too big to pollute, the frontiers to[o] vast to tame and climate was the province of God. Today, we're the gods. Individually, we know how to plan and think ahead. Our forms of government generally cannot do the same. We're inadvertently terraforming the planet and I'm afraid w[e']ll just have to live or die with the consequences.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Yvonne183
I don't know if global warming is true or not but for argument sake let's say it is true.
The thing that bothers me is that people have treated me like trash all my life. From old men messing with me when I was a teen to the bashers who's attacking put me in the hospital and now make me fear walking the streets at night. And then there are the people who refuse to give me a chance at a decent job, I could do regular work but they never give me a chance. And now these same people are telling me to save energy so that their offspring can have a better future. i say fuck 'em, I don't care if their childrens children live in a Mad Maxx society,,, they made my life hell let them have a taste of the same.
I don't debate whether global warming is true or not,,, i just don't care. Let the earth rot for all I care.
The planet is fine, as George Carlin pointed out. (It's a fantastic clip.) There is nothing wrong with the planet. The people, however, are fucked -- ha! ha!
There is the little or big (depending on your view) thing about: future generations. I think as human beings we should have concern about future generations. And children born today bear no responsibility for the way the planet is being destroyed.
The responsibility rests with the institutions of government and corporations. AND FOR OIL COMPANIES: it is AN INSTITUTIONAL IMPERATIVE to destroy the planet.
The CEO of Exxon-Mobil Rex Tillerson is REQUIRED by law to maximize investor return. By law. If he doesn't do that he can be sued. So, that requires the utter trashing of the planet. Again, it is an institutional imperative to destroy the planet. Core changes come when we change the institutional structure of corporations. I mean, now we have to and should regulate the hell out of corporations.
(The activist and writer Helen Caldicott said she isn't really concerned about people. What she cares about are birds, dolphins, tigers and all other animals.
And, well, I mean, look at how we treat animals. Ain't very good. I think in the future, through, say, ethical enlightenment, we'll all become vegetarians.)
YouTube - George Carlin - Saving the Planet
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
that Carlin Clip is classic. It's us in a nutshell...
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Fools there is always climate change, always will be.Its just the latest boogie man made up by the left and and their brought and paid for scientists
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Carlin is amusing but misses some crucial points that relate to conservation and survival strategies: the cyclone that hit Burman [Myanmar] a few years ago caused excessive damage because of mangrove forest clearance in coastal regions: redressing this damaging alteration to the environment would make sense and I don't even know if left alone the 'natural' processes of the planet would restore the mangroves.
Ben, your comment about Exxon is hysterical nonsense-the company is not trashing the planet. Do you really think that among its 75,000 employees worldwide nobody cares about the environment they live in and share with you and me? Greater environemntal awareness has been a political factor now since the 1960s, it might not 'save the planet', but I have seen bicycle paths in the Netherlands and China, and they work...
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Climate change hits Mars
Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap, writes Jonathan Leake.
Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period.
Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1720024.ece
http://www.discoverynews.org/manbearpig.jpg
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Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Mars has a relatively well studied climate, going back to measurements made by Viking, and continued with the current series of orbiters, such as the Mars Global Surveyor. Complementing the measurements, NASA has a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) based at NASA Ames. (NB. There is a good “general reader” review of modeling the Martian atmosphere by Stephen R Lewis in Astronomy and Geophysics, volume 44 issue 4. pages 6-14.) Globally, the mean temperature of the Martian atmosphere is particularly sensitive to the strength and duration of hemispheric dust storms, (see for example here and here). Large scale dust storms change the atmospheric opacity and convection; as always when comparing mean temperatures, the altitude at which the measurement is made matters, but to the extent it is sensible to speak of a mean temperature for Mars, the evidence is for significant cooling from the 1970′s, when Viking made measurements, compared to current temperatures. However, this is essentially due to large scale dust storms that were common back then, compared to a lower level of storminess now. The mean temperature on Mars, averaged over the Martian year can change by many degrees from year to year, depending on how active large scale dust storms are.
In 2001, Malin et al published a short article in Science (subscription required) discussing MGS data showing a rapid shrinkage of the South Polar Cap. Recently, the MGS team had a press release discussing more recent data showing the trend had continued. MGS 2001 press release MGS 2005 press release. The shrinkage of the Martian South Polar Cap is almost certainly a regional climate change, and is not any indication of global warming trends in the Martian atmosphere. Colaprete et al in Nature 2005 (subscription required) showed, using the Mars GCM, that the south polar climate is unstable due to the peculiar topography near the pole, and the current configuration is on the instability border; we therefore expect to see rapid changes in ice cover as the regional climate transits between the unstable states.
Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth…
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
I AM FUCKING PISSED ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING! There I said it! Shit it's fucking cold outside.