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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
The only race that I have been really paying attention to here in New York State is the one for Governor. Back in the summer, Governor Hochul (D) had a double digit lead over her opponent, Lee Zeldin (R).
I think Hochul falls into the category of the Democrat that doesn't seem to be good at it. I also get the feeling that she thought could do the bare minimum when it came to campaigning and cruise to an easy victory. But I don't think she realized until it was too late how fed up people are with the direction NYC and the overall state is going in.
Thanks for this and the link to the Post article -I don't know enough about the policy on education to comment, and I don't know why crime has increased in the City. The obvious question is, if Zeldin wins, will it make a difference? My impression is that governing New York as a City fluctuates between Democrats and Republicans, and because of its historic size and influence, I am not sure what impact the Governor has on City policies. Quality of candidate is discussed below.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Why do they seem to have trouble finding effective candidates? Where are the future FDRs going to come from, or even just the Bill Clintons or Obamas? It was hardly a good sign that they had to turn to a man who has clearly past his best in 2020, and it'll be even worse next time.
One of the big problems with politics these days is that good people don't want to go into it because it's such an unpleasant business. As a result, we are left mostly with careerist hacks, egomaniacs and zealots.
Your last paragraph is bang on, and is part of a trend seen in countries like Israel and India. In the latter case, the dominance of the Congress Party after Independence, at least up until the assassinations of Indira, and then Rajiv Gandhi, tended to mean that elected politicians in the Lok Sabha were educated men (and mostly men) whose bookshelves were lined with Shakespeare, Tagore and Asimov alongside the Bible, the Quran and the Upanishads. I think I first read about the decline in the intellectual quality of MPs in India 20 years ago, and with the growth of the BJP and the legitimization of the more extreme Hindu Nationalist parties, the political landscape of India is fundamentally different from what it was in 1947, and more accepting of discrimination and violence.
A similar process has taken place in Israel, as indicated in the thread I began yesterday, where people with extreme political views can get elected because the PR system enables them access to the Knesset if they win just more than 3% of the vote -in Germany a party must get at least 5% of the vote to sit in the Bundestag.
What happens, it seems to me, is that the admission into Democratic political systems of parties and people who don't believe in it, except as a tool to gain power, allows them to create narratives which first of all divide people along an 'either/or' axis and then exclude from the debate those who don't agree. Furthermore, any achievements made by previous Governments, of whatever party, are dismissed as worthless, or even a cause of the present 'crisis' whatever that is. Thus, in Israel the 'crisis' has been made by the same people who rejected the Peace Treaty of 1993 that had a better chance of healing Israel-Palestinian relations, but required the kind of compromise on land by Israel that the 'Rejection Front' characterised as 'surrender'.
By contrast in India, the BJP and its satellite parties, are attempting to create a narrative in which India's Muslims are presented as intruders into thousands of years of Hindu culture who have no right to be there -so those Mosques were built on Hindu Temples, and all the social problems India has are caused by Muslims. How the BJP deals with millions of people they don't like and blame for all their problems is chilling, as I have seen video footage of the tactics they use to intimidate Muslims in towns and cities.
Michael Walzer has addressed these trends against Liberal Democracy in his short but perceptive book The Paradox of Liberation (2015). Although it deals with Israel, India and Algeria, his theses may now also apply to the US, and to a lesser extent in Brexit Britain.
It doesn't mean 'the Left' has lost the plot completely, but it does mean that we are living through an era where many left-wing parties are unable to both create an alternative narrative, and when in office, prove that their policy making is of long-term benefit even if it has been -I assume Affordable Care in the US is better than what came before it, for example.
I am not sure why this is, because the policy frameworks of Reagan, Thatcher and their successors has also failed. The dominance or persistence of Personality in politics is also regrettable if it gives power to people who are merely good at the Media, like Trump, or not good, like Biden and Corbyn. We have had demonstrably good and effective policy making in the past, so why are contemporary politicians either incapable to doing as well, while often blaming past successes for present-day failures?
Or maybe in five or ten years time we will be in a different place, though the 'crazies' can do a lot of damage between now and then.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
The question I was getting at is why do people bother with mail-in voting if early in-person voting is easy. According to that article, 57% of early votes have been by mail, so it's not just people who can't get to a voting place. (In Australia, only about one-fifth of early votes are by mail these days.) It sounds like there is a greater risk that mail-in votes may not be counted; eg because the post was slow or the date stamp was unclear.
I sent my ballot in by mail for the first time in 2020 and it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. I was planning to go in person this year but I forgot I had opted in for a ballot by mail when I registered. It arrived, I filled it out and sent it in. I got an email saying that my ballot had been received and I should not vote in person.
It is laziness but if you're careful with the ballot and follow the instructions, you get a confirmation email and there won't be an issue. But I agree that more can go wrong but the process was smoother this time than it was for 2020 (for a lot of reasons).
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Thanks for this link, Blackchubby. It goes a long way to explaining some of the Democrats problems, not least with their 'messaging' which to some is more focused on social rather than economic issues.
I am not sure if explains why Latino Immigrants of whatever generation are deserting the Democrats for the Republicans, given that the GOP has a poor record on the economy and an even worse one on social issues -and If 'Latinos' are not a monolithic bloc of Democrat voters are they all indifferent to social issues that do impact them, such as Abortion? I can see the link between the Catholic Church and the debate on Abortion and family planning, but is it not possible that some immigrants have gone to the US because it is freer and more liberal on these issues than the 'Catholoc' States of Central America?
It raises the question that has been asked in this country with regard to former Labour constituencies voting Tory -Why do people vote against their own interests?
Just as the Tories here are more concerned to reduce the taxes of the rich and the corporate world, ditto the GOP in the US, with the additional fact that ought to be a major talking point, that Trump himself is as corrupt as a Central American dictator helping himself the national treasury.
Where the article does touch a nerve is in the argument that immigrants want to prove themselves capable of survival and growth without the aid of the State, that their focus is more on work, and education for their children and that in recent years the Democrats have lost the plot here, by relentlessly backing, as Biden did just the other day - the 'Middle Class' which most immigrants are not. That historic link with Blue Collar workers may have gone, but it's not as if there is no industry in the US so I wonder if Democrats have calculated that there are now more votes with the college educated professionals and the staffs of City Hall and the State, assuming Blue Collar workers are in decline? The article suggests this is so.
Whatever it is, the Democrats seem poor at expressing what they believe in, terrified of giving voice to anything that sounds like Socialism even as Trump and his supporters use expressions like 'Radical Left' or 'Socialist' where it does not apply -because to them, anything that involves the re-distribution of wealth is Socialism and is to be demonized, and the US has not had any Socialism since the IWW became ineffective in the 1920s and 1930s, their thunder stolen in part by FDR and the New Deal Administration. I am inclined to the view that if the US had experienced some Socialism, the Democrats might not be in the dumps as some say they are now, after all, Socialism is the natural condition of humankind.
That said, with a few exceptions, the 'left' has been in retreat for some years across Europe, notably in France and Italy, with the German SPD a centrist party these days.
Lastly, I think immigration is one of the least understood of topics, and one that has a tortured history. From what I have read, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a 'solution' to the situation on the Southern Border, but neither does the UK Government with regard to illegal migrants crossing the English Channel, while the policy to send a proportion of Asylum Seekers to Rwanda, is as expensive as it is morally outrageous and politically insulting to all involved.
And let's face it, unrestricted immigration is what gave the US its economic prosperity in the last quarter of the 19th century, the first Immigration legislation, the Immigration Act of 1882 was designed to stop Chinese immigrants entering the US. It is an old, old story, but there is a potent question here too-
-The population of China is 1.4 billion, India 1.3 billion -the USA 331 million- room for another 700 million?
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
This is essentially the same argument that has been advanced for why they have lost white working class voters; ie they feel taken for granted and alienated by the focus on progressive social and environmental issues.
The question that also needs to be asked is how more educated and progressive voters would have responded had the Democrats remained focussed on traditional working class issues. Would they have still voted Democrat anyway, or would a third political force have emerged to appeal to these people?
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Where the article does touch a nerve is in the argument that immigrants want to prove themselves capable of survival and growth without the aid of the State, that their focus is more on work, and education for their children and that in recent years the Democrats have lost the plot here, by relentlessly backing, as Biden did just the other day - the 'Middle Class' which most immigrants are not. That historic link with Blue Collar workers may have gone, but it's not as if there is no industry in the US so I wonder if Democrats have calculated that there are now more votes with the college educated professionals and the staffs of City Hall and the State, assuming Blue Collar workers are in decline? The article suggests this is so.
Let's not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. In a different political system people would be writing articles about why Republicans have lost certain sections of the electorate by focusing too much on less educated white voters.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Let's not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. In a different political system people would be writing articles about why Republicans have lost certain sections of the electorate by focusing too much on less educated white voters.
In aggregate terms, yes, but if 'all politics is local' then both the persistence of hard core Republicans in some States, and their campaigns to 'firm up' the base in the offices of the State is the measure, they are doing either better than, or as good as Democrats. One thinks of the former Confederate States, but northern States like Wisconsin and Idaho are not safe Democrat states locally. I think Bannon has copied the radical politics that might be said to have begun with Gramsci and which Saul Alinksy used in Chicago -campaigning among voters at the 'base', many of whom believe the 2020 election is stolen, who don't question the content of the film 2000 Mules -by organizing at this level, Republicans can capture the machinery of electoral poltics at the local level and turn it to their advantage, just as the Electoral College served Trump in 2016.
I think the only way to break this duopoly in the US is to abandon 'first past the post' and go for some form of Proportional Representation, not sure if this has ever had much traction in the US. It would encourage the formation of alternative parties if they believe they can get into office in the State, maybe even in Congress. But what system?
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
I saw the clip and the thing is, I don't think it is satire. Maybe he knows something we don't, or is he really just thick?
"While standing at the pulpit, the former football player turned politician proclaimed: “If you’re a martian and you live in the United States of America, I’m gonna protect you too. Because you belong to my family.”
Herschel Walker tells rally he’ll protect any ‘martians living in the US’ as they are ‘my family too’ (yahoo.com)
Shouldn't there be a capital letter for Martians?
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
I think the only way to break this duopoly in the US is to abandon 'first past the post' and go for some form of Proportional Representation, not sure if this has ever had much traction in the US. It would encourage the formation of alternative parties if they believe they can get into office in the State, maybe even in Congress. But what system?
This looks like a worthwhile option (it exists already in Alaska). The top 5 candidates from each party go on the ballot; and the winner is then decided by ranked-choice voting. This addresses the big problem in the US, that candidates can get nominated only by appealing to the partisan base.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...katherine-gehl
We have ranked-choice (or preferential) voting in Australia, and the duopoly has been well and truly broken. It's now roughly one-third of the votes going to each of the major parties and the other third to small parties and independants.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_A...deral_election
Ranked-choice may be a better option than PR because it allows more stability, but still means than votes for small parties and independents are not wasted and the major aprties need to make an effort to appeal to them.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Thanks for your post, filghy2, question for me is, does PR in its various forms enable extremists who would normally exist on the fringes of politics, a seat in the centre? In the US, the Republican Party is now so extreme I don't think anyone else on the 'Right' could challenge it, but I don't see any hope for a true part of the 'left' gaining any seats in either a State or a Federal Congress. The polarization or sectarian politics in the US cannot be broken -Republicans had the opportunity to either prevent Trump being their leader, and he knew he couldn't win anything outside the Party, but it hasn't split. The Democrats on the other hand don't need to split, as they have been a divided party since 1968 or thereabouts.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?
Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?
Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post
Lots of people are simply voting on the price of gas, even though Republicans won't reduce it significantly no matter what BS they spew about it.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Another bleak appraisal of the Democrats, but it begs the question -would the policies the Democrats have that alienate Republicans be managed any better by the Republicans? I understand people vote against things in elections, but what are they voting for? I have said before people can vote against their own interests, but in this case I am simply incapable of understanding why anyone would vote for a party so immersed in lies and bigotry with people who admire dictatorship and terror. Or is this what Americans believe, and want?
Opinion | Democrats are drowning in denial - The Washington Post
They probably were too slow to recognise that inflation was a big problem, but it's not clear what they could have done that would have made much difference in time for the election.
In any case, we should wait for the results before doing post-mortems; in particular how they compare to the normal mid-term swing. So far, it doesn't look like a red wave has happened; in fact, Democrats may do better than expected.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
They probably were too slow to recognise that inflation was a big problem, but it's not clear what they could have done that would have made much difference in time for the election.
In any case, we should wait for the results before doing post-mortems; in particular how they compare to the normal mid-term swing. So far, it doesn't look like a red wave has happened; in fact, Democrats may do better than expected.
It wasn't that Biden and the Democrats were slow to recognize that inflation was a big problem, its that they refused to acknowledge that it was a problem. For the better part of year, they as a well as liberal pundits in the media tried to diminish or downplay the impact of inflation. It was only until the last month or so did the those running for office try to pivot the conversation towards the economy.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
A few takeaways from last night:
I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.
Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.
I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.
Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.
Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.
I doubt that Trump is going to get that message, so that will require some of them to find the guts to finally stand up to him. It was clear after the last election that he's a liability, but most of them hoped he would just fade away without them having to do anything. Unless the party's base turns away from Trump they still have the same problem.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...ident-00066100
It will be interesting to see whether Trump goes ahead with his apparent plan to announce his candidacy soon. I think he's going to be very fixated with De Santis.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.
The party obviously agreed with you and gave up on Florida. They didn't invest in the Crist or Demings campaigns. DeSantis would've been easier to block from becoming president if the Democrats hadn't handed Florida to him for a second term.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
A few takeaways from last night:
I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.
Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.
I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.
Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.
Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.
Intriguing assessments -can you be more specific about Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams? Were they never going to win in such apparently solid Republican States? From here, Abrams comes across as a strong speaker and a brilliant organizer, but that might be the media affecting my judgment. Could she go for the big one in 2024?
It also to me seems to consolidate the anti-Federal States such as Texas that are not going to flip or fold, and with Republicans running the House, I think it maintains the trend toward State Autonomy that has emerged over the years, deepened by Trump and his impact on Republican politics. The Supreme Court will thus become a key player in the 'Rejection Front' of American politics and thus be more reliable than Trump.
In Congress, I wonder if McCarthy feels obliged to give a high profile job to 'take-no-prisoners' Marjorie Taylor Greene, who may be even more militant if she sees herself as the remaining standard-bearer for Trump -assuming she doesn't turn against him. Whatever, Americans I think will now have to spend two years watching their Representatives do nothing, as the Republicans will obstruct everything (including the Budget?) and use their power to attack through in-House procedures like Investigation, maybe even an attempt to Impeach President Biden.
Pundits on UK tv, albeit from the US (eg, David Frum) speculate that Trump will put himself forward in 2024 because he has no other reason to live, and to spite Ron DeSantis. Frum even speculated that if rejected by the party, Trump would run as an Independent and thus deliberately split the ticket. A lot depends on those people who can do so, telling Trump to give up, but they didn't dare say such things before, so will they now?
Another point from last night -Trump and Biden are the two most unpopular politicians in the country, but other than DeSantis, who else is there to run? Some argued a Democrat may yet emerge who is not well known (in the UK in particular) with scepticism about the potential of Kamala Harris. But if DeSantis is Republican candidate-elect even before the process starts it means his Democrat challenger ought also to be a younger person. Will DeSantis take the initiative and declare himself a candidate for 2024, and if so when?
As usual it seems, the Polls did not attach the importance to the youth vote and the issue of Abortion, which in some States has emerged as an important maybe even a decisive issue. Over 60% of first time young voters chose Democrats.
Lastly, is there any evidence that voter suppression, gerrymandering and rejected ballots affected the outcome? One notes the tight race in Georgia between Warnock and Walker, though it looks like Mark Finchem in Arizona has failed to be elected Secretary of State -will he claim the ballot was fraudulent and demand a recount?
-I forgot to add Frum's point that voters have begun to tire and turn away from the abusive rhetoric used by Trump and his supporters, citing the odious reaction to the attack on Paul Pelosi as the low point which he thinks people voted against. I hope this is true, as the quality of Democracy is diminished by the persistent abuse and infantile catcalling Trump and his supporters use.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
A few takeaways from last night:
I'm glad things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania.
Beto O' Rourke and Stacy Abrams need to find another line of work.
I said it two years ago, but I know I think its official. The Democrats can forget about winning the state of Florida anytime soon. There is a good chance the next President of the United States will be hailing from that state.
Although Kathy Hochul won her election, I think Lee Zeldin only losing by 5 should give hope to state Republicans that if they can find the right candidate, they can compete and win in this state. I also don't think its out of the realm of possibility to say they can win in NYC.
Finally, if you go by the reactions of some Republicans, I think the party might be ready to turn away from Donald Trump.
I am also glad that things worked out for the best in Pennsylvania and New York as well. The Democrats really didn't really put that effort in helping Val Demings and Charlie Crist in winning their respective races,and prevent Marco Rubio from winning a third term and Ron DeSantis from winning a second term.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Will DeSantis take the initiative and declare himself a candidate for 2024, and if so when?
I think he'll try to stay on the fence as long as he can to see what happens to Trump's support among Republican voters. Unless that falls a lot he will probably sit it out. De Santis is only 44, so he can afford to wait for an easier path in 2028.
The problem for the party is that they know Trump will be prepared to sabotage any other nominee. He is already talking about having dirt on De Santis. The real source of his power now is not that he can help Republicans achieve their goals; it's that he can blow the party up if he doesn't get his way.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
It wasn't that Biden and the Democrats were slow to recognize that inflation was a big problem, its that they refused to acknowledge that it was a problem. For the better part of year, they as a well as liberal pundits in the media tried to diminish or downplay the impact of inflation. It was only until the last month or so did the those running for office try to pivot the conversation towards the economy.
I'm not saying there isn't an answer but I don't know a lot about macroeconomics. If he recognized that inflation was a problem would he have been able to ameliorate it? I know interest rates can be raised, but what else do you think he should have done? I'm not asking this as a gotcha because I anticipate there is an answer and he could have handled it better.
During that same period of time Republican Justices overturned Roe v. Wade, have passed a bunch of homophobic laws, and are spreading conspiracy theories about Paul Pelosi being attacked while refusing to condemn it.
Yes, the average person has a lot to lose from inflation. Wages might not increase at the rate of cost of living increases. People with modest savings might find the purchasing power of their savings is reduced.
But I'm just not sure how a person can vote for Lauren Boebert or Marjorie Taylor Greene or Dr. Oz or even Marco Rubio who some call a moderate but is online engaging in soft election denial. I have some sense why they do but I actually think it's culture war/racism. It may sound simplistic but if you look at what Republican figures talk about online it's culture war crankery 24/7. Cancel culture, pronouns, dozens of genders, communism, black lives matter, globalists, and innuendo about lgbt people harming children. When have any of their elected leaders ever focused on a problem that is harming broad sections of society and tried to ameliorate it? They will rally in support of bakers who don't want to serve gay people, call abortionists genocidal monsters, and preemptively claim that Democrats are stealing elections without regard to the consequences of saying that.
Republicans pundits will imply that civil rights books are inappropriate for children to read while defending actual hateful propaganda. The things they want canceled are any attempt to reckon with civil rights issues and the history of racism in American. What they don't want canceled (through private action): hate speech, health conspiracy theories, and election denial. If anyone wants to see how serious they are we can play a game. I can link to tweets from right-wing pundits who have gone viral and someone else can link to left-wing American pundits that have gone viral. Republicans haven't been about policies for a long time.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
I think he'll try to stay on the fence as long as he can to see what happens to Trump's support among Republican voters. Unless that falls a lot he will probably sit it out. De Santis is only 44, so he can afford to wait for an easier path in 2028.
The problem for the party is that they know Trump will be prepared to sabotage any other nominee. He is already talking about having dirt on De Santis. The real source of his power now is not that he can help Republicans achieve their goals; it's that he can blow the party up if he doesn't get his way.
Trump didn't become President by being risk-averse but this seems like a dangerous strategy. If he sabotages Republicans and they lose, he will not have anyone to block attempts to prosecute him for crimes he committed. If he doesn't sabotage Republicans and he loses but they (Desantis or some other rival) win, it's likely they engage in some obstructionism for him. If he doesn't sabotage Republicans and they lose, they may not be in a great position to defend him, but he might still have enough good will that they would try, and their attempts even as a minority party have sometimes been fruitful.
I think Trump blowing up the Republican party, if it's more than just a bluff, might be a direct ticket to prison for him.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
I'm not saying there isn't an answer but I don't know a lot about macroeconomics. If he recognized that inflation was a problem would he have been able to ameliorate it? I know interest rates can be raised, but what else do you think he should have done? I'm not asking this as a gotcha because I anticipate there is an answer and he could have handled it better.
The Federal Reserve - the independent experts responsible for controlling inflation - did not start raising the interest rate above zero until March this year. Obviously, they were caught by surprise as well.
It takes a long time to get inflation down, so there's little that could have been done in a time frame of less than a year. I'm not sure whether price controls are constitutional, but if they'd done that there would have been queues at gas stations instead.
I think the only clear mistake they made was to overcook the stimulus package last year, which Larry Summers warned about at the time. It's kind of understandable why they did it after Obama's popularity was damaged by the slow recovery after 2008, but it turned out to be fighting the last war.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
I think Trump blowing up the Republican party, if it's more than just a bluff, might be a direct ticket to prison for him.
He will at least try to use the implied threat to scare off any challenges. I find it hard to see a scenario in which Trump accepts defeat graciously, or is persuaded to pull out of the contest. That would be contrary to everything we've seen of him: the delusions about his own popularity and abilities; the compulsion to be the centre of attention; the fear of being seen as a loser; the desire for revenge on anyone who crosses him.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
He will at least try to use the implied threat to scare off any challenges. I find it hard to see a scenario in which Trump accepts defeat graciously, or is persuaded to pull out of the contest. That would be contrary to everything we've seen of him: the delusions about his own popularity and abilities; the compulsion to be the centre of attention; the fear of being seen as a loser; the desire for revenge on anyone who crosses him.
He also needs his lawyers to delay litigation as much as possible so that he can hide behind public office to prevent the Courts from exposing his business operations. It seems incredible, because it is, that for more than 30 years he had no idea his CFO was scamming and stealing from him, unless it turns out that Trump really is a dunce at business, and spent most of his time in the office reading articles in magazines about Donald Trump, as his niece has claimed in her book.
This so far is the most hilarious quote I have seen from dismayed Republicans-
"On Pray Vote Stand, Michelle Bachmann said the results simply don’t make sense given how much praying and repenting the right did."
Fox News Is Having a Meltdown Over the Election Results | The New Republic
Does anyone know what happens to the House Committee on January 6th? If the Republicans have a majority -and at the moment that is not certain- can they just shut it down?
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
He also needs his lawyers to delay litigation as much as possible so that he can hide behind public office to prevent the Courts from exposing his business operations. It seems incredible, because it is, that for more than 30 years he had no idea his CFO was scamming and stealing from him, unless it turns out that Trump really is a dunce at business, and spent most of his time in the office reading articles in magazines about Donald Trump, as his niece has claimed in her book.
This so far is the most hilarious quote I have seen from dismayed Republicans-
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[FONT="]On Pray Vote Stand, Michelle Bachmann [/FONT]said[FONT="] the results simply don’t make sense given how much praying and repenting the right did."
[/FONT]Fox News Is Having a Meltdown Over the Election Results | The New Republic
Does anyone know what happens to the House Committee on January 6th? If the Republicans have a majority -and at the moment that is not certain- can they just shut it down?
If the Republicans end up winning the majority in the House Of Representatives,they will more than likely shutdown the January 6 Committee and make things more difficult for President Joe Biden by launching investigations into him and his administration.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
This link suggests that the Supreme Court, by enabling the gerrymandering of Congressional districts has in effect awarded the Republican Party seats in the House it might not have won, with the assessment that in a tight race, these new districts may give the GOP control of the House.
The Supreme Court’s Hands Are All Over The 2022 Midterm Election Results (yahoo.com)
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
The gift that keeps on giving, that nobody wants to unwrap...
"“They stole the Electron from Blake Masters."
Donald Trump Makes A Mockery Of His Election Freakout With Doozy Of A Typo | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk)
"Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene was widely mocked on Thursday morning after tweeting that the United States’ enemies are “quacking in their boots”."
Marjorie Taylor Greene mocked for embarrassing duck-related Twitter typo | The Independent
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Agree it is the gift that keeps on giving,and right on cue the MAGA King Donald Trump and his enablers are making false claims about the election being stolen.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
“They stole the Electron from Blake Masters."
Perhaps they are going to use it in those Jewish space lasers.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
An interesting piece which explains why Stacy Abrams lost in Georgia -for the most part arguing that different factions in the Democrat party were pulling in the contrary directions (as this party often seems to do), while some wanted her to be more focused on Georgia rather than the national stage. I am not sure if it delves into the demographics of electors in a State which does still retain a strong cohort of Republicans. If she is so divisive a figure, this does suggest she may have to limit her ambitions.
Here Are All the Reasons Stacey Abrams Lost the Georgia Governor's Race (thedailybeast.com)
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Gen Z Showed Up in Large Numbers to Protect Climate...
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...hwart-red-wave
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
I'm not saying there isn't an answer but I don't know a lot about macroeconomics. If he recognized that inflation was a problem would he have been able to ameliorate it? I know interest rates can be raised, but what else do you think he should have done? I'm not asking this as a gotcha because I anticipate there is an answer and he could have handled it better.
During that same period of time Republican Justices overturned Roe v. Wade, have passed a bunch of homophobic laws, and are spreading conspiracy theories about Paul Pelosi being attacked while refusing to condemn it.
Yes, the average person has a lot to lose from inflation. Wages might not increase at the rate of cost of living increases. People with modest savings might find the purchasing power of their savings is reduced.
I don't know a lot about macroeconomics either. But sometimes acknowledging a problem can be the first step in trying to solve it. Which the Biden Administration sort of did when the name of "Build Back Better" was all of sudden changed to the "Inflation Reduction Act".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflati...on_Act_of_2022
I'm guessing they thought since it was passed in late August, it would give the impression that they were doing something about it as way to alleviate voters' whose main concern was inflation and it would be one of the reasons they voted for a Republican candidate.
Before Election Day, my feeling was given the general mood of the country, swing voters/independents were going to vote on which issue they were more concerned about, despite having concerns about an equally important issue. What happened was that while many people are worried about the economy, they voted because of what happened with Roe vs Wade and because they wanted to send a message to the Republican party about Trump and the election deniers. In essence, people said we aren't happy with way things are going, but we don't want things to get worse.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Surely not? But we have been here with the impossible before, as in 2015. Memo to America -if he revives his American citizenship, maybe Boris Johnson would like to be Speaker?
" “We know that the hard-right Freedom Caucus people are in search of another candidate” for House speaker, Raskin told Margaret Brennan.
“One potential candidate whose name has been floated is Donald Trump himself because the speaker of the House does not have to be a member of the House,” he continued. “And they are talking about putting Trump right there.” "
Don't Party Just Yet: Jamie Raskin Raises Specter Of House Speaker Trump (yahoo.com)
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
with Roe vs Wade and because they wanted to send a message to the Republican party about Trump and the election deniers. In essence, people said we aren't happy with way things are going, but we don't want things to get worse.
So you're saying that instead of voting against Democrats because they didn't handle an economic issue Republicans almost certainly wouldn't have handled well they decided to cast a vote against legislators who want to force women to carry pregnancies resulting from rape to term or who support telling fables about election results instead of conceding races they've lost like every civilized candidate in a democracy does for fear they'd otherwise be inciting insurrection? Oh the humanity! What were they thinking!? That women should not have to fear they will be fugitives if they have abortions? Or that we shouldn't have people in office who told tall tales about tens of thousands of ballots being found in a dumpster with Chinese shipping receipts and that they should storm public buildings and exercise their second amendment rights?
But yes, I'd agree a women's right to terminate a pregnancy conceived from a violent rape is as important as fighting inflation but I'm not prone to understatement. https://abcnews.go.com/US/rape-excep...ry?id=88237926
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
And yes, I know there are people who struggle to pay their bills and are in a different financial situation than I'm in. But I don't think the party that thinks requiring insurance companies to provide health coverage for people with cancer is communism is as concerned about poverty and the human condition as they maintain.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
So you're saying that instead of voting against Democrats because they didn't handle an economic issue Republicans almost certainly wouldn't have handled well they decided to cast a vote against legislators who want to force women to carry pregnancies resulting from rape to term or who support telling fables about election results instead of conceding races they've lost like every civilized candidate in a democracy does for fear they'd otherwise be inciting insurrection? Oh the humanity! What were they thinking!? That women should not have to fear they will be fugitives if they have abortions? Or that we shouldn't have people in office who told tall tales about tens of thousands of ballots being found in a dumpster with Chinese shipping receipts and that they should storm public buildings and exercise their second amendment rights?
But yes, I'd agree a women's right to terminate a pregnancy conceived from a violent rape is as important as fighting inflation but I'm not prone to understatement.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/rape-excep...ry?id=88237926
Dude, I have no idea what you're trying to say. So I think its just best we end this discussion here.
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Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Maybe the question is, how did the polls get it wrong? Is it the modelling they use, is it the assumptions polling organizations make that shape their questions and results? Clearly more people were energized by Roe-v-Wade than the polls suggest, maybe more were registering a disaffection with the extremism of the Republican Party than the polls allow, though one also notes that the Party did well in Florida and Texas and some of the Northern States. The polls failed to predict a hung parliament in the UK in 2017, so I wonder if it is not just a national thing, but a flaw in polling methods, and whether it means they can be trusted in future if they do not change.
Or is it the difficulty of arriving at a consensus on policies in so divided a country?
