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It's worth comparing this election to previous elections that were landslides.
In 1972, Nixon won 49 states and 61% of the vote.
In 1984, Reagan won 49 states and 59% of the vote.
This time Trump won 31 states and seems likely to get just over 50% of the vote.
Why is everyone talking as if this was a landslide when it was just an average win in historical terms?
The problem is that it's very difficult to counter a simple argument with a more complicated one. The simple argument that inflation rose under Biden so he must be responsible resonates with how the average voter thinks. No amount of explanations about supply chains, etc is likely to be able to counter that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
More generally, Trump is running the simple argument that the struggles of the working class are due to immigrants and imports of foreign goods and he can fix that. What's the easily understandable narrative that can counter this effectively? One option is a left populist redistributional agenda like Bernie Sanders wants. The problem is that 'socialism' has never been very popular in the US. The main exception seems to be the New Deal, but that was only after 25% unemployment made voters more receptive to bigger government.
EXACTLY what Black Lives Matter wanted as well for they stated on their website that they DID NOT ENDORSE Kamala Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
It's all over except for the crying. the GOP is one seat away from the house majority.
Why CA and AZ take over a week to tally votes when FL can do it in a few hours amazes me, especially since AZ is a much smaller state.
Noah Smith has written a good post on how poor governance in blue cities has contributed to these voting shifts - in particular, the 'progressive' idea that urban disorder should be tolerated for social justice reasons.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-bl...-must-be-fixed
Screw it up bad enough for long enough and it will eventually come back to bite you in the ass. And from what I can tell with the biased media and dems themselves still calling EVERYONE racist, etc, even black & CA / SA folks, and Not learning their lessons, this election was just the beginning. you don't earn voted by insulting people or their intelligence.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
"...the biased media..."Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
Here in the UK we don't have access to the 'alternative' sources of news unless their episodes are on YouTube, and as I had never heard of Joe Rogan until this year I would not have looked for it -but Rogan regularly gets more viewers than any of the 'conventional' broadcasting outlets, including Fox News. This raises the question in response to your quoted comment -
Who watches the 'biased media'? Not most Americans. Maybe that it where the Harris campaign failed, setting aside the problem of being an incumbent, and other issues related to how people feel in their cities and towns.
The figures are here if you are interested
Some Viewers Abandon Television Networks On Election Day
Safety in the big cities here: the NYC Mayor is about to go down for corruption and the mayor of Chicago is on the resident's shit list. Two DAs in CA have been booted, and another one that I can't recall of the top of my head. Unfortunately those three states still have off the rails governors. Nearly Every state has significant voter shift away from den to rep this year. Up to 20% in some states.
This election result looks a lot like 2004, which was the last time a Republican won the popular vote. We know that Bush's popularity fell pretty quickly after that.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-2004-all-over-again
It looks like Trump 2 is going to be chaos that makes Trump 1 look like a picnic, because there will be very few adults in the room restraining him this time. It will be telling whether Republicans block any of Trump's crazy nominations or moves to get around Congress.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...licans/680655/
There's a strong chance things will swing back when people see the results of this chaos, but how much lasting damage will be done in the meantime?
I don't think Chicago was expecting what they got in their current mayor after Lori Lightfoot.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
I don’t see why they wouldn’t have. He never ran as a moderate and it was quite evident he was in the pocket of the Teacher’s Union from the get go. He was, and still is, pretty obvious about it all.
Here's two charts supporting my point that people are probably overstating the significance of Trump's victory.
The first shows that the voting swing was relatively small compared to past elections in which the White House changed hands.
Attachment 1473440
The second shows that swing against the incumbent was relatively small compared to other national elections over the past two years. Incumbents (both left or right) have mostly been doing badly.
Attachment 1473442
Oh I mean he went further left than even they anticipated when compared with Lori Lightfoot.....Quote:
Originally Posted by fred41
One of the biggest complaints is from the Black community saying the current mayor treated immigrants better than homeless Chicago Blacks......
Did the Americans vote for a 'second Revolution'? The actor best known for (like RFK) his gravel voice and a face that looks- and moves- like concrete, said this at the Florida golf club where Trump lives, referring first to one of his characters, 'Rocky'-
“Something was going to happen, this man was going to go through a metamorphosis and change lives. Just like President Trump.
“We’re in the presence of a really mythical character,” Stallone continued. “I love mythology. This individual does not exist on this planet. Nobody in the world could have pulled off what he pulled off, so I’m in awe.”
“And I’ll just say this, and I mean it,” Stallone went on. “When George Washington defended his country, he had no idea that he was going to change the world. Cause without him, you could imagine what the world would look like. Guess what? We got the second George Washington. Congratulations.”".
Sylvester Stallone calls Trump ‘the second George Washington’ in Mar-a-Lago warm-up speech
Set aside the fact that George Washington was a real man, not a myth, as well as the fact that his modesty sets him apart from Trump in the most obvious way, and you have the intriguing, if scary thought if Trump does get his nominations through their Senate confirmation hearings (other than those he gets in without that process), the impact could amount to a Revolution of some kind.
It would amount to a structural change, in which most important decisions on social and economic policy are made by States, not by the President or Congress, but also one in which rather than trust markets in a capitalist world, Trump's Federal Govt will make decisions on trade, notably on taxes and tariffs.
Oddly, the key here might be another attempt at Revolution in recent times, ie Brexit, and the unusual (because political) speech made this week in London by the Governor of the Bank of England, who has been forced to admit that the UK economy since Brexit and because of Brexit, has declined, and will continue to decline at the rate of 4% (though one also assumes most recent figures were skewed by the impact of Covid). He also pointed out that even without membership, the EU remains the major trading partner of the UK, not the US.
Bank of England boss says UK must 'rebuild relations' after Brexit - BBC News
Trump may very well succeed in some his cherished aims -nullifying all of the court cases he has lost, ending those still pending, and most of all, make as much money from the Presidency as he can. But yes he could preside over major structural changes to the US system of Govt, and also of the Rule of Law (Giuliani's contempt for the law is chutzpah but not surprising), but with the consequence that the economy, instead of being made great again, does not match the rhetoric -that in four years' time, the average American will be no better off; indeed, may be worse off, because Revolutions have a tendency to send economies into reverse -one also notes that the English, American, French, and Russian revolutions sparked wars designed to either spread the Revolution or stop it- and that Trump has no idea on this basis what he is doing, and I doubt that he cares.
The spite behind the rhetoric is a sad conclusion to a grubby campaign, but people are now so used to this collapse of decency in language, that the next 4 years, even if Trump only lasts for one or two of them, could be even uglier than it is now. With the final rider that for all the evidence of the damage Brexit has done to the UK economy, the current Labour Govt is struggling to make sense of our chronic problems -low productivity, low and currently zero growth in the economy, incompetence and even bankruptcy in local govt- so that it may take the US years to cope with the impact of Trump, if it ever does.
RFK may have a valid point with regard to the sugar and salt content of processed foods, ready-meals, cereals and candy bars -but is it not a case of what you get with one hand, is taken away with the other? He has said there is too much focus on infectious disease, which is a strange thing to say when they pose risks to life.
If it needs to be done, get an expert to do it! There I said it. Expert.
Vote Trump, get Musk -is the reality that Musk now has more effective power -and more extensive contacts- than the President? But on this basis, should he be the CEO of a company with 'Global Reach' using his position to advance the fortunes of the business, as well as being a member of the US Govt?
One might say it is not ethical, but when you say the word, hysterical laugher is heard throughout the Capitol. Even Putin is giggling. Did Musk and Trump campaign to end Freedom in Ukraine? They have given up on Gaza, so maybe, though Gaza and Lebanon and going to cost the American tax payer billions of $$$.
Democratic Senators call for probe into Musk's alleged contact with Putin - BBC News
Maybe they'll wake up for the next election. But I'm not going to hold my breath.
When I take my US Rt 66 road trip I plan to spend only one night in chicago, IF I stay there at all. I'll probably just get to the start point, take a couple pics and get the hell out of there as fast as the car can take me. I have NO interest in anything in that cesspool of a city.
As vote-counting goes on, the claimed Trump landslide is looking less and less impressive. Trump's share of the popular vote has now fallen below 50% and the margin has shrunk to 1.6%. It will shrink a little further as there are still some California votes to be counted. That will make it the second smallest popular vote margin since 1968.
At this stage Trump's vote is up by 2.5 million (3.5%) compared to 2020, while the Democrat vote is down 7 million (8.7%). Taking account of population growth, that suggests a modest increase in Trump's share of the voting population. The main story in this Presidential election is the collapse in the Democrat vote, rather than the increase in votes for Trump.
The results in Congressional elections were even less impressive. Republicans ended up with virtually the same narrow majority in the House of Reps that they had before the election. In the Senate they picked up 3 seats, but Democrats had many more seats at risk and they hung unto 3 seats in states won by Trump.
And image obsessed Trump don't like these awkward facts-Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
Trump team 'fuming' as margin of victory dwindles after Election Day: 'Delegitimize his mandate'
The facts being Trump's wining margin is one of the weakest/smallest in US history, but I guess winner takes all. Until the mid-terms?
Transition 2025: Did Trump Win an “Unprecedented and Powerful Mandate”? | Council on Foreign Relations
List of United States presidential elections by Electoral College margin - Wikipedia
Yep!Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
Used to live there myself cesspool definitely! Total racist and segregated when I was there - and when I say racist, I mean racism WITHIN PEOPLE OF COLOR....
Well, at least Robert Taylor homes are gone now.....
A cesspool indeed when it includes one of the finest museums of art I have ever seen (and I have seen most of the best)-Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFanti
Home | The Art Institute of Chicago
If you love music you could slum it here-
Home | Lyric Opera of Chicago
If you live long enough, you might want to explore this when it is finished (but it's on the South Side, so maybe ask someone from the IDF to escort you?)
The Obama Presidential Center | The Obama Foundation
As for the nightlife, this woman lists the two best cities she has been for nightlife: Melbourne, and, yep you guessed it: Chicago.
I've been to 50 countries — there's only one I'll never return to
Maybe next time go as Don Cheadle, pretend you are a tourist from the UK? Oright mate?
Then go.
Just don't walk the streets back to your hotel afterwards...
I have been to Chicago and no, I wasn't mugged, or robbed, or harassed. On my first visit to NYC I was walking at all hours of the day and night and never once had a problem, and that was in the early 80s.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
When did you last go to Chicago and stay out late? Maybe if your bedtime is c21.00 you lead a charmed life?
You were in Afghanistan, and now you are afraid to be in an American city? Maybe you need to cut down on your Fox News watching.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
MICHAEL MOORE just accused Biden of starting World War 3! (amongst other smashing)
https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/biden...ut-with-a-bang
"LAND MINES, Joe? Seriously? THIS is your legacy? This is how you want to go out? In a blaze of horror? Like, if Joe’s gotta go, we all gotta go with him… right into World War III? "
What makes this so interesting is that the whole Democratic Party was with Biden - until his debate with Trump....
Now, they're abandoning Biden just like they're silently abandoning Harris...
Firms up yet again why I'm not a supporter of a 2 party system....
Rationalize all you want. The fact remains that trump got a larger percentage of votes in nearly every, if not all states as compared to 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
It was biden's idiotic, (and most likely puppet mastered by o and/or a group) policies that trashed us here, and the people have had more than enough of it. They practically handed the election to the Republicans, and when they insulted parts of their own base, well that was too much.
If the Republican candidate was ANYONE other than Trump, this would have been a 47, 48, or 49 state electoral blowout not seen since 1984. Even with all the hatred directed against him, Trump managed to win an impressive victory.
And the harris campaign & dem leadership - if you can call it that - are STILL blaming the voters, and everything, even the hurricanes that devastated mostly conservative areas, EXCEPT where the blame belongs - themselves and their disingenuous continued gaslighting of the people with "biden was doing such a great job" and "nothing comes to mind"...
Who says I was afraid? I'm out in large cities, all the time, However, I go where I can carry, not some liberal crime infested city where the criminals have more rights than their victims.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
NYC today is not like it was in the 80s. I lived and worked there for three years, and visited it often before and after. It was nothing like it is today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
I don't know what you mean by c21.00, but its 0300R here and I'm up, although I do need to get to bed soon.....
That was also an election that he lost just as decisively as he won this won. Did the last 8 years teach you nothing about how quickly things can change?Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
The fact is that the tipping point state (Pennsylvania) was won by a margin of 1.7%. That means if less than 1% of voters switch parties the next election can go the other way. Only a blind partisan fool would let this election go to their head and think they are now invincible.
It's definitely possible that some voters will change their minds once they see that Trump isn't going to magically restore what they remember from 2019 (they seem to have forgotten about 2020) - that instead of restoring stability they are likely to get non-stop chaos. The one saving grace about Trump I is that he didn't actually do many of the things he talked about - either because he had no idea how to get things done or because responsible Republicans blocked him. That probably won't be the case this time because one lesson he learned was to surround himself with yes people with similar crazy ideas.
The message to Democrats is clear: you must dump neoliberal economics:
The message to Democrats is clear: you must dump neoliberal economics | Joseph Stiglitz | The Guardian
Is Harris campaign in denial?
http://https://www.youtube.com/watch...Ad-Bh2uf3bm2sW
And he got those large vote swings even with millions who absolutely hate him.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
I acknowledge that the new admin will have to do a good job, or they'll get hammered in the 2026 mid terms and possibly face a loss in 2028, but Remember Trump will NOT be on the ballot, and it if wasn't for the absolute hatred of him by those with TDS, this past election would have been a 47+ state electoral blowout. And JD Vance will likely wipe the floor with any dem debate opponent like he did with tampon tim and some lib media tards that tried to throw stuff in his face in interviews. Please that I myself do not like Trump, it's just that the alternative would have been a complete disaster.
Judging by their comments,yes the Harris Campaign are in complete denial about why they were handed a humiliating loss on Election Night. And instead of doing some soulsearching about what wrong and why the polls were way off,they are making excuses and pointing fingers.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
There will always be a post election debate touching on various aspects of the campaign. This summer an American I met told me the Americans will not vote for a woman to be their President. I have mentioned this before somewhere, but I see no debate about it in this coverage. I would go further and suggest that just as a lot of Republican politics is determined to roll back the reforms of the 1960s, with Abortion the leading issue, so if you dig deeper, the 'Moral Majority', the 'NeoCons' and now the 'Trumpits' are just as focused on ending same sex relations and marriage, and moreover they would if they thought it possible make divorce illegal. At the root these policies suggest that the US has gone too far in giving women equal rights, for the simple reason the people who vote Republican don't think women are, or should be treated as equals. The almost total focus on transgender rights and why they should be abolished everywhere, is concerned with male to female people to the exclusion of female to male, though I might be wrong on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
Key question: would any other woman have done better than Harris?
If Trump and his allies in the Federal Govt, Congress and the State legislatures get their way the next 4 years may see women the biggest losers of this phase of American history.
Gretchen Whitmer, maybe?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
Harris seems to have had two major problems.
1. She wasn't able to differentiate herself from Biden, and didn't really try - eg the infamous "Not a thing comes to mind" response.
2. She wasn't able to explain why she shifted from positions she advocated in 2020, so her attempt to move back to the centre wasn't convincing.
You say you don't like Trump, but you also think that people who oppose him have an irrational hatred. It might be more convincing if you tell what you don't like about him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
Bingo!Quote:
Originally Posted by KnightHawk 2.0
"Key question: would any other woman have done better than Harris?"
There are very many,,but better might still not have been good enough.one would still have to not lie to and insult the American people constantly
I think it was "Nothing comes to mind", but close enough. That's because there is no mind for anything to come to, and process anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by filghy2
"Key question: would any other woman have done better than Harris?"
There are very many, but better might still not have been good enough.
Lastly, I not that there are a lot of brits & other foreigners here sounding off on MY country's elections & election process. Here's an idea, correct your own country's problems before belittling mine.
Remember, many of you would be speaking German (or russian) if it was not for US!.
You are free to comment on the situation in the UK, I even have a thread on it in this section of Hung Angels. As CP Snow put it, 'Comment is Free, the Facts are Sacred'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
I would never diminish what the US did for the freedom of Europe, but it did not do it alone. The idea that without US help the British would have not only lost the war, but become a German satellite is truly bizarre. How would the Germans have run Britain? With no resistance? It is merely a 'what if' in history, as interesting as 'What if Guillaume did not claim his right to rule England in 1066?'.
Even after 40 years of Soviet domination, there were still more people speaking German, Czech, Hungarian and Polish than Russian in those countries. And so on.
You might as well say were it not for the British, you Americans would all be speaking French. Etc.