For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

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Originally Posted by broncofan

Is there anyone who thinks that their reps should say, "we had a vote for a non binding referendum, and though the people voted in favour of it, it is only advisory. Parliament is sovereign and after investigating the issue and moving forward in good faith, we cannot implement a soft or hard brexit without doing both immediate and long-term damage to our economy."

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It would be legally possible to ignore the referendum but I don't think it's politically tenable. It would leave a lot of embittered Brexit voters feeling betrayed by the system and poison UK politics even more than it is now. If the political system is going to ignore a vote because of undesirable consequences then it would be far better to not have the referendum in the first place.

The problem with referenda is that they can only resolve a contentious issue if the result is decisive and there can be no argument about what the people were voting for. The 1975 referendum met these conditions, but the 2016 one did not. A second referendum won't resolve the issue unless it can satisfy these conditions, which means it can't just be a re-run of the 2016 referendum.

Either this is the momentous week in British politics when the UK moves toward its exit from the EU, or it is another week of uncertain outcomes. The Guardian offers this useful road map (scroll to bottom of the article) the first key vote expected this evening (12 March 2019).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-crucial-votes

Christ on a bike!
With the latest defeat, tomorrow's going to be..Interesting!

Interesting to the point of being bizarre. The Government proposes a motion to rule out No Deal before the 29th March, but when an amendment changes to the wording to remove that speciific date, the Government, having promised its own party a free vote, suddenly imposes a three-line whip to vote against what originally was its own, now amended motion, which it loses, with four Cabinet members abstaining from the vote rather than support the Government (in effect, Theresa May) but have not been sacked, unless, like football fans chanting at the manager of losing team they are to be 'sacked in the morning'. And that followed the surreal moment earlier in the day when the Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his 'Spring Statement' on the economy in which he warned against a No Deal Brexit which is the default position of...the Government he sits in...

In normal times the Prime Minister would resign, but Theresa Mat is either a fighter, deluded, or a clever politician who spent a lot of the day debating options with MPs from the Democrratic Unionist Party who we now know are desperate for some kind of deal as Northern Ireland faces ruin. If even these obstinate obstacles to Brexit are moving, and if May can persuade enough Labour rebels to do so, she will try for a third time to get the Withdrawal Agreement voted through, though there is a rumour the Speaker will not permit it, if he can.

Thursday's vote (ie later today) will seek a delay to Article 50. In technical terms the legal instruments that accompany Brexit have not been cleared through the House so the argument will be a 'pro forma' exit on the 29th with June 30 the actual 'exit day' -the EU may agree to this, but it is now known they are opposed to any extension of Article 50 if it has no meaningful purpose.

The other gossip is that if these motions and amendments fail, and May after the defeat in effect told the House so what? it's my deal or no deal, the ERG will join Labour to bring a vote of No Confidence in the Government -again!- on the basis that MPs are in such despair, so genuinely scared the voters regard them with contempt May will fall and a General Election be held in, well, May...

Where this leaves the UK with regard to Brexit, the EU Parliamentary Elections in May (does anyone get tired of that word) we will find out as the last bars of this tragic opera play out over the next 7 days.

It's not over until the lady sings, though right now she has lost her voice...

After the day when four cabinet members preferrd to abstain rather than support their own government and Prime Minister, and were not sacked by her, today broke new records, and for that matter broke into eight pieces at least, the theory and practice of Cabinet Government and Cabinet Collective Responsibility. On the motion to delay Article 50, which the Government won, no less than eight members of the Cabinet voted against the motion -most bizarre of all, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Stephen Barclay ended the debate with a rousing speech in support of the motion, but then walked through the No lobby to seek to defeat it....

...as for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, a Second Referendum was endorsed as Labour Party policy at their 2018 Conference if the Government failed to secure a deal, and Jeremy Corbyn was forced by his own party in Parliament to endorse it last week, yet today, when the motion to secure a Second Referendum was proposed Labour decided to oppose it on the basis 'now is not the time', and it was defeated. I am opposed to a second referendum, but for those who saw it as the only alternative to a failed deal by the Government, this was a betrayal, Labour proving it is incapable of making a coherent decision on Brexit, and further proof that there appears to be no integrated party system in the House of Commons with the exception of the Scottish National Party and the Democratic Unionist Party. Tory and Labour Parties are now just a loose assembly of people who do what they want with no regard for party policy or discipline.

If it was producing results it might not matter, but it is not. The Government will seek agreement from the EU to extend Article 50 June 20 in order to pass the remaining statutory instruments associated with Article 50 that have not cleared Parliament, but we still do not know if they will agree to it, though they might, while we are told the Withdrawal Agreement rejected twice will be voted on a third time next week if The Speaker agrees to allow a failed motion to be brought before the House again, which normally can only be done if there is a substantial change to it. If that fails the Government may seek a two year delay to Brexit, but that is still speculation. Sme chatter suggests the DUP will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement if the Government can find the wording to make the 'Backstop' acceptable, but who knows? So many strange things have happened in the last two weeks, we can't be sure what will happen in the next 48 hours.

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when the motion to secure a Second Referendum was proposed Labour decided to oppose it on the basis 'now is not the time', and it was defeated.

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In fairness, they were going on the advice of whomever runs the 'Peoples Vote' campaign ('Peoples' whatever...something else blairites should answer for)!

But beyond that, Indeed...What the fuck is going on!

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Originally Posted by Jericho

In fairness, they were going on the advice of whomever runs the 'Peoples Vote' campaign ('Peoples' whatever...something else blairites should answer for)!

But beyond that, Indeed...What the fuck is going on!

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You seriously think Jeremy Corbyn based his decision on the 'People's Vote' campaign? If that were the case why is still leader of the party? It was an opportunity to vote for something many, if not most of the party in Parliament have been calling for -the leadership ducked it at the last moment for the simple reason that they want to see the Government fall and a General Election in May, which is getting more likely by the day.

Today the DUP are in talks with No 10 to find a formula whereby they can support the Prime Minister's 'unacceptable deal', but will the ERG fall into line? I can't imagine Steve Baker or Marc Francois doing it. I am not even sure if the Government can bring the same WA to the Commons for a third time unless it is in some way different from what it was before. Ah well, another week of uncertainty, Jericho. Do you think you should run for Parliament? Could you make a difference?

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You seriously think Jeremy Corbyn based his decision on the 'People's Vote' campaign?

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After the failure of his own motion for a 2nd ref recently, I think it was more based on mathematics.

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Ah well, another week of uncertainty, Jericho. Do you think you should run for Parliament? Could you make a difference?

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ArfArf, Jericho, Minister for Transexual Affairs!

I may have the morals of a dissolute alleycat, but I'm a European alleycat. Electorate be damned, I couldn't work towards taking us out of Europe, so no, I probably couldn't make a difference.

Well I just got my new passport today, I applied for it three weeks ago. It's got "European Union" on the top line of the front cover! What the fuck is that all about? Does someone know something they haven't shared with the rest of us?:nervous:
Live in hope Jericho!

HolyKrap, Bercow's thrown a spanner in the works!

(That will piss the DUPs off, They were about to get a fresh bribe, er, i mean, 'incentive').

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House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has scuppered any chance of another Commons vote on Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement before Thursday’s EU summit.

Mr Bercow ruled that the Prime Minister cannot bring her EU withdrawal deal back before MPs unless it is substantially different from the package which was decisively defeated last week.

Mr Bercow’s ruling, announced in an unexpected statement to the Commons, throws a further obstacle in the way of the Prime Minister’s scramble to get a deal agreed by the scheduled date of Brexit on March 29.

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https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...ntial-changes/

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Originally Posted by peejaye

Well I just got my new passport today, I applied for it three weeks ago. It's got "European Union" on the top line of the front cover! What the fuck is that all about? Does someone know something they haven't shared with the rest of us?:nervous:
Live in hope Jericho!

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Ah, but was it maroon?

Given todays events, I think we're all going to die of old age before we have to start worrying about newblue passports!

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Originally Posted by peejaye

Well I just got my new passport today, I applied for it three weeks ago. It's got "European Union" on the top line of the front cover! What the fuck is that all about? Does someone know something they haven't shared with the rest of us?:nervous:
Live in hope Jericho!

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They won't start issuing the blue ones until we're actually out of the EU. That's been known for a while and there was an announcement recently that the current ones will remain valid when/if we do leave. So, I'm afraid that unless you lose it you're stuck with it until it expires. Just as well, I need a new one soon and I'm fucked if I'd pay for it twice.

The new blue non-EU ones will be issued from Oct 2019, mine is maroon and is valid for 10 years.

The thing way people are treating the colour of the passport like its a holy grail. My passport is valid for another 7 years and i dont care about the colour but a guy i work with is changing his when the become available.

The spiral known as 'Brexit' continues to gyrate, but whereas a corkscrew spirals into the cork of a handsome Burgundy to enrich a meal, Brexit is just spiralling, if not out of control, then into ever deeper depths of absurdity.

Thus,
1) last night the Prime Minister 'addressed the Nation' live on tv -though it was not deemed important enough to interrupt either Coronation Street or Holby City- in which she said that although the British people had voted to leave the EU and her government had established 29th March 2019 as 'Exit Day', she now believed this would not happen, and it is the fault of MPs who refuse to pass the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated between the EU and the UK. She claimed earlier in the Commons that the UK would seek an extension of Article 50 to June 30th but not later than that, but we don't know if the EU will agree to it, and if they don't and the Commons if asked to do so, rejects the WA for a third time, we may find that in fact the UK does leave the EU on the 29th March, but without deal.
But the sight of a Prime Minister blaming everyone but herself for this mess was staggering in its ineptitude, and following her petulant remarks in the Commons earlier in the day about MPs 'navel gazing', even her closest supporters have been shaking their heads in disbelief. Unless she has some secret deal with the EU, she looks to me like a Prime Minister walking the plank with only the deepest ocean before her.

2) For some time, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said the Prime Minister should, like the Four Tops, 'reach out' to the rest of the Commons to obtain a more popuar deal the EU will accept and the Commons pass; yet when Corbyn was invited to No 10 Downing Street for just such an exploration of MPs from across the Commons, he entered the room to find former Labour, now Independent MP Chuka Umunna seated at the table, turned round in disgust, and left, I suppose you might call it 'Jexit'. Reach Out (I'll Not Be there).
That the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition appears to be as stubborn as the Prime Minister, capable of producing instant stasis in an earthquake makes one wonder how either of them have survived this long.
Because nobody else wants their job, nobody wants to be responsible for the Brexit that has dominated our politics for the last two and half years.

3) When the Brexit Party was launched in January and formally registered as a party in February, it was hailed as the new 'UKIP'. Created by Nigel Farage, the fate of the Brexit Party has in just over a month already taken on the fate of UKIP, as the first leader has been forced to resign so the Party is now looking for its new leader (UKIP is currently on its 6th leader in less than 3 years). The leader, a former UKIP 'economics' spokeswoman (please don't laugh) Christine Blaiklck has had some dodgy mates in the past and has agreed to leave.
So, Nigel, why is it that every party you touch falls to pieces? And guess what, Farage wrote an article in the Telegraph saying if the UK does not leave the EU he will tear the Conservative Party 'limb from limb' -er, Nigel, don't exert yourself, just blow hard enough and the Tories will collapse, and while you're at it, blow some smoke up your own arse.

*Nigel Farage is leading the 'People's March' for Brexit, walking from Sunderland to London, or rather, taking buses part of the way -Nigel is in the Comfy Car, if he is ever seen at all- cost of entry onto the March £50. 350 started the March. England has arisen.

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It's not my fault, I'll protect you from those lazy MP's!

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May's speech, pretty much!

Hmmm, Jexit (well played, Sir!)
Tho, I prefer "The Squakbox" version.

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But a Labour source told the SKWAWKBOX how it all unfolded:

There were two meetings. There was the one with the party leaders – and another one that the Tiggers were invited to.

But the Tiggers turned up at the main meeting and [May adviser] Gavin Barwell thought it would be rude to send them away even though they’d crashed it! Confusion reigned.

The Tiggers aren’t even a party, let alone significant enough to have been there, so Jeremy left. Apparently he didn’t miss anything, it was as vacuous as you’d expect.

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https://skwawkbox.org/2019/03/21/why...g-with-umunna/

Attachment 1148860

Cheerio Yvette Cooper, Lisa Nandy & other Elitist cunts, I know YOU know best but it will cost you your jobs :D

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Originally Posted by peejaye

Attachment 1148860

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No policies, no seats, no future. Just another desperate attempt to hang on to €93,000 a year, plus expenses.

According to the new Prime Minister, the UK will be leaving the EU on the 31st October, 'no ifs, no buts'. So, 99 days to go.
What leaving actually means is open to question, not least because Johnson on the ITV Peston show last week, said that the UK will leave the EU's 'legal formula' on the 31st but operate a 'stand still' approach to the Customs Union and the Single Market for the duration of the 'implementation period' that lasts until the UK has negotiated a free trade agreement with the EU. That sounds to me like the UK remaining in the EU and not being in the EU at the same time, and makes no more sense than Johnson's insistence he can negotiate changes to the existing Withdrawal Agreement which he has said is 'dead', but which also seems to be the basis of the negotiations which in any case the EU say have ended.

Put another way, Boris is saying to the EU 'Give me what I want, or I shall slam the door on the way out', so we need to see who blinks first, if either side blink. On top of that, if Johnson were to be offered something or negotiated a revised deal, it would have to be approved by the 27 Members States of the EU, and the UK Parliament, which suggests 31st October can't be the date if the process of approval is still taking place in Parliament. Boris is in a Box, and he is neither a magician, nor a rabbit.

The only problem, Stavros, is the refusal of people like you to believe in the Brexit utopia. Don't you know that all will turn out well as long as you believe it will. Don't you know that you can always get what you want if you are determined enough?
Isn't that the substance of Boris's pitch, or have I missed something?

In practical terms, Brexit has begun: as of the 1st of September, UK Government officials will no longer participate in EU meetings. However, because the UK is still a full member of the EU, decisions which require the agreement of all 28 members will on the UK's behalf be made by Finland-

But the decision leaves the UK government with a reduced influence over new EU legislation, which will affect the UK for some time to come.
Because the UK is still entitled to a vote, the decision on how it should be cast will be delegated by power of attorney to Finland, which is the current rotating chair of the European Council.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9072956.html

Isn't independence wonderful?

MPs will return from their summer holidays next week to spend the last two weeks of this Parliamentary Session. The Prime Minister has advised the Queen to prorogue this session of Parliament on the 14th of September, and to reconvene for her Gracious Speech on the 14th of October.
On one level there is nothing dramatic about this, the current session has been one of the longest, and the government has the right to use the technical measures known as Prorogation in which the Queen formally ends a Session. The timing is what has got everyone into a flap, because the Commons has yet to find a resolution to the endorsement of the Terms of Withdrawal under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that formally ends the first phase of the UK's exit from the EU, to begin the formal negotiations on the trading relationship both desire as the UK becomes an independent state. In addition, there is a conflict in the Commons on the logical position the government finds itself in: if there is no agreement on the Terms of Withdrawal, the UK will leave without a deal at 11pm on the 31st of October, and many MPs want to find a legal way to stop it.

So what Johnson has tried to do is short-circuit Parliamentary procedure to make a No Deal exit on the 31st of October the most obvious means of leaving. He insists he is trying to re-negotiate parts of the existing Terms of Withdrawal, but declared it is dead during his campaign to be leader of the Conservative Party, and the EU has said it is not re-opening negotiations, so one wonders what other than window dressing Johnson thinks he can achieve.

Some might have thought it best to see this Session through the the end of October at which time, if the UK does indeed leave the EU, Parliament could be Prorogued, a new Session begin with a new Queen's Speech setting out the legislative agenda for a new Britain outside the EU. There is also the complication that if the Opposition table a vote of No Confidence and the government loses, a General Election is the logical outcome, but Johnson thinks he will win a No Confidence vote.

Yet another prospect emerges: Johnson gets his way all the way to the 31st October, but loses so many votes on government legislation -his party has a majority of 1, with DUP support- he may be obliged to called a General Election.

One way and another, Brexit has made a complete mess of politics, to the extent that even with announcement today we still have no clear idea what, if anything will happen on the 31st October (the EU is unlikely to offer the UK an extension), we don't know if there will be a vote of No Confidence and if Johnson will lose it. We don't know if there will be a General Election before the 31st October or after it, we don't know if Jeremy Corbyn will be ousted as leader of the party at the end of September. And so on.

Watch this space....but expect the next developments to be replaced by others as the clock ticks down to the 31st of October.

There are times when I wonder if I am living in the Twilight Zone. Each day seems to bear its unique moments of Brexit madness, while the tick clocks on to the magic moment itself, 11pm on the 31st October, no ifs, no buts, no treats, no tricks...so..

We have a Prime Minister who so far has lost every vote in the Commons, and like Stalin in the 1930s has begun to purge his Parliamentary Party of MPs who dared to vote against his wishes for a bill that proposes to make it impossible for the UK to leave the EU without a deal, MPs who in some case have been in the party for over 50 years but whose entire careers are now defined by - not even leaving the EU -but leaving as the Leader defines it. Pilloried by Brexit Revolutionaries in the press as 'Conservatives in name only', Johnson has lost 21 MPs and more to follow at a time when he needs all the votes he can get, he has alienated many people in his own party, and has watched his majority of 1 vanish into the ether, and as if that was not enough, does not even have the power to decide when the next General Election will be.

But here is where the language defies reason:
Johnson demands support for negotiating a revision to a deal which he has said is dead, which involves little or no change to the existing -dead- agreement because the negotiating team in Brussels has not put it on the table for consideration by the skeleton crew which has replaced the EU negotiating team that was disbanded in July. Johnson lied to the Commons when he said negotiations were taking place as the team did not arrive until hours later with nothing to offer, even as Johnson plots the exit without a deal in October.

Jeremy Corbyn, who voted against the deal the EU offered the UK, not once, but three times, now supports a Bill that makes it impossible for the UK to leave without a deal, but has not specified what it is Labour would expect to be in a deal agreed with the EU, which they say is the deal that was agreed with Theresa May that Corbyn rejected, while his deputy John McDonnell insists that Labour policy is to have a second referendum. So Corbyn wants a deal but won't say what it is, while proposing to reject the deal that does exist, and impose another Referendum on the people as if the first one had not caused enough damage, and, note, with no futher advice other than that Remain will be on the ballot paper.

At a time when the Tories are busy destroying their party, Labour, instead of presenting the country with the image of a strong opposition with a vibrant alternative to existing government policy is still incoherent, and led by a man with the charisma of a cheese sandwich, and a catastrophic inability to tell the truth abut his own views of the EU.

It is all bullshit. With or without a deal, the UK must negotiate a new relationship with the EU after it leaves and it may take yers to conclude it. On the basis of what we have seen so far, any hope of a positive outcome is unlikely. We shall be in the Twilight Zone for some time to come, and it doesn't even matter who is in government, as they have to manage Brexit, the clutch of controversial policies that may be impossible to manage.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

We have a Prime Minister who so far has lost every vote in the Commons, and like Stalin in the 1930s has begun to purge his Parliamentary Party of MPs who dared to vote against his wishes for a bill that proposes to make it impossible for the UK to leave the EU without a deal, MPs who in some case have been in the party for over 50 years but whose entire careers are now defined by - not even leaving the EU -but leaving as the Leader defines it. Pilloried by Brexit Revolutionaries in the press as 'Conservatives in name only', Johnson has lost 21 MPs and more to follow at a time when he needs all the votes he can get, he has alienated many people in his own party, and has watched his majority of 1 vanish into the ether, and as if that was not enough, does not even have the power to decide when the next General Election will be.

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And then along comes Jo.
Comes to something when your own brother goes O.T.S. (would that count as incest)?

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Originally Posted by Jericho

And then along comes Jo.
Comes to something when your own brother goes O.T.S. (would that count as incest)?

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Maybe incensed? This is what Boris said when Ed beat Dave to become Labour Party leader-

only a 'socialist would regard familial ties as being so trivial as to shaft his brother.'

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Originally Posted by Stavros

Maybe incensed? This is what Boris said when Ed beat Dave to become Labour Party leader-

only a 'socialist would regard familial ties as being so trivial as to shaft his brother.'

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The delicious ironies of Boris Defloppy Johnson's leadership so far have not bypassed my notice.
Nor the increasing ranks of the glibdems.

I used to have a hang on this politics thing, now I haven't got clue.
Is Johnson going to bring back a deal, is he going to break the law, are the courts going to reopen parliament? What the fuck is going on!

The Incredible Hulk is going to break the chains that bind us to the EU...(don't know how to post a GiF)

https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1173344940044226561

https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/st...44940044226561

He's just gone from incredible hulk to the invisible man!
I've discovered a new fondness for luxembergians!

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Originally Posted by Jericho

I used to have a hang on this politics thing, now I haven't got clue.
Is Johnson going to bring back a deal, is he going to break the law, are the courts going to reopen parliament? What the fuck is going on!

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Well apparently we're leaving Jez? On Halloween? No matter what?
Hope my grammar's ok mate, you know what we great unwashed are like:ignore:

Supreme Court 11 Boris Johnson 0
Unanimous, prorogation null and void.

So what happens now? I can hardly wait for the next episode in the decline and fall of the once-great empire.

In the past the PM would have at least felt the need to resign after something like this - maybe even gone off to the library with a revolver to atone for bringing HM into disrepute. Not much chance of that from Boris I guess.

One question this raises is whether the UK would be better off with a written constitution. Currently too much seems to depend on the assumption that a PM will do the right thing and follow conventions.

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Originally Posted by peejaye

Well apparently we're leaving Jez? On Halloween? No matter what?
Hope my grammar's ok mate, you know what we great unwashed are like:ignore:

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Tell me that, 1/11.
I might believe it then...And despair.

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Originally Posted by filghy2

So what happens now? I can hardly wait for the next episode in the decline and fall of the once-great empire.

In the past the PM would have at least felt the need to resign after something like this - maybe even gone off to the library with a revolver to atone for bringing HM into disrepute. Not much chance of that from Boris I guess.

One question this raises is whether the UK would be better off with a written constitution. Currently too much seems to depend on the assumption that a PM will do the right thing and follow conventions.

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1) Boris Johnson has said he wants the UK to leave the EU on the 31st October with a deal, or mutually agreed 'terms of withdrawal' required by the conditions of negotiation laid out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Because the current Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected by Parliament three times, either Johnson offers an amended version to the EU, or he asks the EU to extend the Article 50 process again. He must do this in time for the EU to consider the new proposals at the Summit Meeting arranged for 17th October, but by 19th October at the latest, and not only must all of the 27 Member State agree to it, so must the EU Parliament, and the Parliament of the UK. Crucially, the terms of the EU Withdrawal (No 2) Act 2019, state that if the Prime Minister fails to produce a new offer to the EU, he must write a letter seeking an extension to avoid leaving without a deal. He has said in the Commons he will not do this, in effect, stating his intention to defy the law.
If Johnson fails to provide a new offer that meets the conditions above, the EU can reject the appeal for an extension, so that in effect, the EU will have expelled the UK from the EU, which it can also do if the UK Government refuses to appoint a new Commissioner to take up his or her position on 1st November.
But, if Johnson fails to abide by UK law by writing to the EU seeking an extension, he may be arrested and charged with contempt:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9120501.html

2) Boris Johnson has not resigned because he has no dignity, no morals, no values and no respect for the Rule of Law or the procedures of the Houses of Parliament. He has screwed up but won't 'carry the can' and neither will the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who declared in the Commons 'we got it wrong' but carried on anyway, and said he respected the Supreme Court decision, then proceeded to trash it. We don't even know what his legal advice was to Johnson and if Johnson ignored it, or what it was that led Johnson to make a mess of the business of government. Johnson has lost every vote in the Commons, he has demolished any hope of a majority in Parliament by expelling more than 20 of his own MPs, and has been humiliated by the Supreme Court. He now thinks he is the second coming of the worst and most corrupt traitor to call himself President of the USA, and decided attack is the best form of defence.
His days are numbered.

3) A written constitution would be heaven on earth for lawyers. Just to write one and then get agreement with it could take ten years. We have better things to do with our time, but if Brexit is a Revolution, who knows what might happen?

Well you did have your Glorious Revolution in 1688 when the monarch refused to accept the primacy of parliament, so maybe it's time for another one. Isn't BJ acting just like James II or Charles I? If the executive refuses to accept that it's actions should be constrained by either parliament or the courts is that any different to the divine right of kings?

In any case, it looks like you are heading for an almighty constitutional crisis, with highly uncertain consequences. I am not so sure that BJ's days are numbered. I understand the Tories are ahead of Labour in the polls, BJ is clearly going to run on a populist "people vs elites" platform and he'll get a lot of help from the Murdoch press. I'm not sure that Labour's fence-sitting position is helping it either - they might be making a fatal miscalculation that the Remainers have nowhere else to go. I know Corbyn did better than expected last time, but that was against a very poor campaigner.

Brexit really has become a fetish for its supporters - something that has to be achieved regardless of the consequences. They seem to have entered an Orwellian world in which parliamentary democracy and the rule of law must be sacrificed in the name of the peoples' will - even though the form of Brexit was not specified in the referendum and few Leave voters are likely to have thought they were voting for a no-deal Brexit at the time. For instance, our resident Brexit fan has never been able to explain what the alternative is to EU membership or how it's going to make the country better off - his umpteen posts on the subject all amount to "We won. We're leaving. Up yours."

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Originally Posted by filghy2

I am not so sure that BJ's days are numbered. I understand the Tories are ahead of Labour in the polls, BJ is clearly going to run on a populist "people vs elites" platform and he'll get a lot of help from the Murdoch press. I'm not sure that Labour's fence-sitting position is helping it either - they might be making a fatal miscalculation that the Remainers have nowhere else to go. I know Corbyn did better than expected last time, but that was against a very poor campaigner.

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It is possible Boris Johnson could do better than expected, but there are two factors that could see him out of office:
1) A lot depends on what happens between now and the 31st October, crucially with regard to 'the deal'. Johnson has said he wants a deal, but appears to have made no real effort to offer the EU something substantially different from what exists in the Terms of Withdrawal rejected by Parliament, suggesting it is a smokescreen to enable him to leave the EU without a deal, in effect, rendering the Article 50 process void. But, were he to agree something at the last minute, he runs the risk that his own Parliament will reject it, for whatever reason and thus get the UK out of the EU but discover WTO rules are not as congenial as he thinks, and that if not 'chaos', enough problems emerge to discourage the voters from supporting him.
Any deal he signs which leaves the UK half in half out of the EU (eg, Northern Ireland) will be opposed by the Brexit Party which has said it will campaign against him and MPs in 'leave' constituencies.
2) If the Brexit Party runs against Johnson in his constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can reach an agreement for one of them to stand down, in a three way fight Johnson, whose majority was cut in half in the 2017 election, could become the first Prime Minister since Arthur Balfour in 1906 to lose his seat at a General Election. It is doable, even without the Brexit Party, but it does need an agreement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

2) If the Brexit Party runs against Johnson in his constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can reach an agreement for one of them to stand down, in a three way fight Johnson, whose majority was cut in half in the 2017 election, could become the first Prime Minister since Arthur Balfour in 1906 to lose his seat at a General Election. It is doable, even without the Brexit Party, but it does need an agreement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

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I can't see any Labour alliance happening whilst Swinson is head of the libdems.

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Originally Posted by Jericho

I can't see any Labour alliance happening whilst Swinson is head of the libdems.

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On an alliance, you are right. But an arrangement for a single constituency? It can be done.

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Originally Posted by Stavros

On an alliance, you are right. But an arrangement for a single constituency? It can be done.

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Any single constituency but that one.
Considering how small Johnson's majority is (and previous momentum activity), could you imagine the msn shitstorm if Labour didn't field a candidate there?

The way I read it, the only way that that could ever happen would be as part of deal to back Corbyn in a Unity Government. And the way it's looking, the only way Swinson would go for that, is if her own mps threaten to rebel against her (new influx aside, not against the realms of possibility).