Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ts RedVeX
Before you start ranting about my ignorance I would like you to read the report, which clearly states in the introduction that:
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Over the last century, there are no alternative explanations supported by the evidence that are either credible or that can contribute more than marginally to the observed patterns. There is no convincing evidence that natural variability can account for the amount of and the pattern of global warming observed over the industrial era."
Which means the whole report is a load of crap as they haven't determined the real cause of global warming, they concluded that one can assume humans cause global warming.
What is it you think the introduction is supposed to do? They are telling the reader what their findings were and in the subsequent chapters they describe the ways in which they have rigorously tested the various potential causes.
For instance, chapter three( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ ) is called detection and attribution. Again, the hint is in the word attribution. They use regression analysis to figure out what contribution each independent variable makes to whatever their dependent variable is, I assume temperature change. They discuss the role of changes in solar output and any possible contribution by increased volcanic activity. This can also be found in chapter 2 ( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/ ). Chapter 2 is called physical drivers of climate change. You can find subsection natural drivers: solar irradiance and volcanoes. They find that these potential causes do not play as large a role as anthropogenic activity in increasing global temperatures.
Again, I have not gone through the study and a lot of it is going to include methods I do not have training to evaluate. But one thing I would not do is read the introduction of a voluminous study like this and state without any cause that the subsequent text dismisses potential causes that it talks about at length.
1 Attachment(s)
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sukumvit boy
I give up
Very wise. People like RedVex exist in closed loop where facts and logic are invented or distorted to support a pre-conceived position. In their own minds they can never be wrong so it is pointless to argue with them. I only do it because I have time on my hands and it's perversely entertaining (up to a point).
Unfortunately, while RV is an extreme example, about 1/3 of the population, and the majority of one side of politics, now seems to be in this category to a fair degree (at least in the US). It is hard to see how healthy democracy or even continued human progress is possible if this continues.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Democracy is leading the most civilised western countries to socialism, as Marx predicted.
I am sorry but if the introduction reads that the scientists responsible for this complete failure of a research were unable to determine whether or not is humans's activity the main reason for global warming, then I am not going to read the whole report.
I don't suppose they put at the end "to be continued" did they hehehe
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
[QUOTE=Ts RedVeX;1799885]
Democracy is leading the most civilised western countries to socialism, as Marx predicted.
--You said it, not Marx, as you were unable to give me a source for this when I asked last time.
I am sorry but if the introduction reads that the scientists responsible for this complete failure of a research were unable to determine whether or not is humans's activity the main reason for global warming, then I am not going to read the whole report.
--Yet again, this is the opposite of what the report says, thus
13 federal agencies unveiled an exhaustive scientific report on Friday that says humans are the dominant cause of the global temperature rise that has created the warmest period in the history of civilization
It is fine for you to disagree with the conclusions of the report, but you can't say it doesn't identify the causes of global warming in our times. This is becoming a farce, and a waste of time. Add something to the debate that will help your cause.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Read about Marx in Wikipedia and try to understand it this time. Or read his "Communist Manifesto". It is not a citation. If democracy means that a bunch of 5 winos from the local train station each have the same right to vote and their vote has the same weight as an Oxford professor then democracy is is where the winos tell the professor what to do. In most "civilised countries of the west" that is what you have, amongst other things like: the so called "income tax", no private property, national businesses, central bank, etc... We all already live in socialist countries and the next step on the communist agenda is transformation to communism. in 1920
Which part of the report states that the greenhouse gases generated by humans is the main cause for global warming? Because what I gathered from your posts, you claim that the climate changes due to human activity.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
[QUOTE=Ts RedVeX;1799945]
In most "civilised countries of the west" that is what you have, amongst other things like: the so called "income tax", no private property, national businesses, central bank, etc... We all already live in socialist countries and the next step on the communist agenda is transformation to communism.
--Who would have thought it, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, Helmut Kohl and Tony Blair, all socialists...a curious interpretation of politics and the state and one that sits at variance with the people who cut taxes and bureaucracy....
Which part of the report states that the greenhouse gases generated by humans is the main cause for global warming? Because what I gathered from your posts, you claim that the climate changes due to human activity
-Try the Executive Summary in the link provided:
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
https://science2017.globalchange.gov...utive-summary/
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Thacher was a liberal, not a socialist. She showed the communists who had been strangling Great Britain with their privileges, and "rights" to death. She liberated the market and allowed proles to take lead. Not any lazy dole scroungers, who do indeed have their say in the pro-socialistic system democracy is and which you advocate, but those proles with new ideas and initiative to work... I am seeing it now. You are not a prole are you? Have you ever actually had a job or are you one of those known in Thatcher's times as the wets?
I shall repeat what I had said earlier: lack of alternative explanations is not an argument for any reasonable man to believe that something is true. The previous statement, which you have emphasised in bold, says it clearly that human activities are not proven to be the cause of global warming. I don't know whether it is your stupidity or the fact that you are arguing with a simple prole like myself that does not allow you to acknowledge simple facts that would be obvious to a 10-year-old. Either way, I now know why there is so little reasonable people even trying to reason with your idiocy.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ts RedVeX
Thacher was a liberal, not a socialist. She showed the communists who had been strangling Great Britain with their privileges, and "rights" to death. She liberated the market and allowed proles to take lead. Not any lazy dole scroungers, who do indeed have their say in the pro-socialistic system democracy is and which you advocate, but those proles with new ideas and initiative to work... I am seeing it now. You are not a prole are you? Have you ever actually had a job or are you one of those known in Thatcher's times as the wets?
I shall repeat what I had said earlier: lack of alternative explanations is not an argument for any reasonable man to believe that something is true. The previous statement, which you have emphasised in bold, says it clearly that human activities are not proven to be the cause of global warming. I don't know whether it is your stupidity or the fact that you are arguing with a simple prole like myself that does not allow you to acknowledge simple facts that would be obvious to a 10-year-old. Either way, I now know why there is so little reasonable people even trying to reason with your idiocy.
Yet again you contradict yourself without seeming to know it, dismissing the UK as a socialist country while acknowledging that the politician who has influenced the UK the most in the last 40 years was not a socialist, as if we didn't know that! You need to explain the contradiction between the tax-hungry socialist Britain you live in and the impact Thatcher had which seems to be the opposite. It doesn't make sense to me and I doubt it makes sense to you.
As for the Climate Change document I quoted, if you bothered to even read the Executive Summary you would see that the authors, not me, chose to put a part of their text in BOLD letters, and that the quote concludes with the statement there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
And we have yet to read your presentation of the alternative evidence, which is the fundamental weakness of your position.
Re: Climate change could mean the extinction of our species
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ts RedVeX
I shall repeat what I had said earlier: lack of alternative explanations is not an argument for any reasonable man to believe that something is true. The previous statement, which you have emphasised in bold, says it clearly that human activities are not proven to be the cause of global warming.
This is clever of you but the report does not say that the cause of global warming must be manmade simply because they ruled out alternative causes. They determine the extent to which both manmade and natural causes are responsible for temperature increases. Even if you read the first couple of paragraphs of what I linked you would be able to determine that this is what they were doing in the detection and attribution section. To be thorough, they included natural drivers of climate change in their regression model. Had they omitted them, you would assume they weren't thorough and that they assumed warming was manmade without proving it, which is actually what you said earlier.
They describe their statistical methodology in appendix c. I can tell you what regression analysis is generally but am not a statistician so you can read appendix c for yourself.
In summary: they do not assume something is true based on lack of alternative explanations. They establish directly the contribution of anthropogenic activities on warming, as well as the contribution of alternative causes such as solar and volcanic activity.
