I dig the vuvuzela
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I dig the vuvuzela
For the sake of argument, let’s accept your 370,000 number for deaths per year in the U.S. due to flu, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses. I assume this is a pre-covid-19 statistic. Divide by 365 and you get an average of 1013 deaths per day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rover177
In the U.S. the first case of covid-19 was reported, I believe, on Feb 28. That’s 105 days ago. Since then there have been 115,000 deaths from covid-19. Dividing by 105 days one finds that the average is 1095 deaths per day.
During the last three months we’ve experienced a pandemic that killed at a rate greater than (but the same order of magnitude as) flu, pneumonia and other respiratory diseases combined. Moreover, it is still spreading and we are nowhere near herd immunity. Seems to me this is good reason to take reasonable precautions and make them mandatory.
This appears to be the first major advance in the treatment of Covid-19 -my only concern is that Steroids are key to its effectiveness. I wonder what amount of steroids and the volume taken over time might impact the body? And I assume anyone transitioning from male to female who needs this treatment will also be concerned -?
"A cheap steroid has become the first life-saving treatment in the Covid-19 pandemic, described by scientists as “a major breakthrough” and raising hopes for the survival of thousands of the most seriously ill.
Dexamethasone is available from any pharmacy, and easily obtainable anywhere in the world. Investigators said the drug was responsible for the survival of one in eight of the sickest patients – those who were on ventilators – in the Recovery trial, the biggest randomised, controlled trial of coronavirus treatments in the world.
The government announced immediate approval for the use of the drug in Covid-19 patients. The UK was leading the way, said the health secretary, Matt Hancock. “This astounding breakthrough is testament to the incredible work being done by our scientists behind the scenes."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...virus-patients
Pandemics result from destruction of nature, say UN and WHO: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...green-recovery
And destruction of nature is directly related to overpopulationQuote:
Originally Posted by Ben
Less people = less destruction of natural sources and habitat.
Lot's of land being destroyed/cleared for "urban development"....
Dexamethasone, like prednisone, is not really related to the sex hormones. It's most closely related to cortisol, a stress hormone your adrenal glands produce and as a result it can be used to treat addison's disease. It reduces the inflammatory response and is also used in auto-immune disorders and asthma. But it's not an androgen and doesn't promote male secondary sex characteristics.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
Early on I think Chinese clinicians had tried prednisone, a related steroid, but they weren't sure it worked and there's a risk of using steroids when you have an infection. I have severe asthma and when I had pneumonia from the flu my doctor was afraid to give me prednisone because there is some evidence that it can reduce respiratory distress but also interfere with your immune system's ability to fight the virus.
Dexamethasone seems to have the greatest life-saving effect when people are on ventilators because it doesn't treat the virus but might keep one's inflammatory response/immune system from killing them. There are also clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis drugs that, like dexamethasone, are intended to treat cytokine storm, the inflammatory response that can kill people with serious disease.
Thanks for the clarification, Broncofan. Stay healthy!
At the very moment when States are relaxing isolation policy to revive the economy, either because of a significant decline in infections (New Zealand, Australia, Europe) or regardess of them (USA), there have been worrying signs that the cruel efficiency of the infection is undermining the achievements, but aso the confidence people have that 'we' are near the end of this grim period in our lives.
New Zealand recorded a new outbreak due to two people from the UK visiting relatives; there have been spikes in the rate of infecton in the North-East of the UK while the rate is in decline in London, just as a decline in infections in New York has seen increases in Oklahoma, to take just one example in the US.
The R Rate is critical, as this remark on the German cases points out:
"The coronavirus reproduction rate, known as the R number, has jumped to 1.79 in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health confirmed the rate was now far above what is needed to contain the outbreak over the longer term.
The R number equates to how many people, on average, will be infected by each person who has COVID-19.
If R is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but if it is below 1, the number of infections shrink and coronavirus can be brought under control.
An R of 1.79 means 100 people who get the virus will infect 179 others."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...break-12011468
Note also that Abattoirs are the focus of much concern, in the UK, in Ausralia and the USA-
"From the Americas to Europe and Australia, abattoirs have become important vectors for infection, with plants around the world forced to close because of infection breakouts. In the US more than 20,000 meat-packing plant workers have fallen ill, according to the Food and Environment Reporting Network, while Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, France and the UK have faced similar issues in their slaughterhouses. The problem has been exacerbated because meat-processing employees were designated essential in many countries. This meant they generally carried on working in close-confines, helping to spread the disease to the wider community."
https://www.ft.com/content/de2ca3f6-...7-069762ca4a2a
But I wonder if we are relaxing quarantine measures too soon, and if the anxiety about the economic impact is creating among some a decision to 'take a chance' on returning to 'normal' and just hoping for the best. I understand it, but cannot agree to it, and will continue to restrict my movements, but I fear the wider pattern of behaviour suggests Covid-19 will be with us for some time to come.
the world is coming to an end
Thank Goodness. It's about time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikka
Recorded deaths in the UK in the last 24 hours: 149
Recorded new infections of Covid 19 in the last 24 hours:1,118.
Meanwhile, on the Jurassic Coast, the question is: 'where are the toilets?'
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/53...480c5c233df98d
That's bullshit about a new outbreak in New Zealand, there are 13 cases, people who have returned from overseas and are isolated. Meanwhile our economy is fully open and we are about to have a 3rd week of attended professional rugby
To Nikka:
Ever since the world ended
I don't get out as much.
So many people that I've befriended
just don't bother to keep in touch.
So many things we thought were splendid
don't seem to matter today --
Maybe it's just as well the world ended
-- it wasn't working anyway.
By Mose Allison, who also said "I don't worry about a thing, 'cause I know nothing's gonna turn out right."
aubrey kate and ts jessy dubai both have corona virus but aubrey is at the hospital (according to their tweets)
Sad news, but thanks for sharing. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikka
Please let us know how things turn out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikka
Thanks ,Fitzcarraldo, for that interesting link from The Union of Concerned Scientists about disinformation . Sad to think that even when we finally develop a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus such disinformation and "anti vaccers " may prevent us from reaching 'herd immunity' . Since SARS-CoV-2 is so infectious it is estimated that we will need to reach 74% if the population either recovered or vaccinated to obtain that goal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo
[QUOTE=sukumvit boy;1937215]Thanks ,Fitzcarraldo, for that interesting link from The Union of Concerned Scientists about disinformation . Sad to think that even when we finally develop a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus such disinformation and "anti vaccers " may prevent us from reaching 'herd immunity' . Since SARS-CoV-2 is so infectious it is estimated that we will need to reach 74% if the population either recovered or vaccinated to obtain that goal.[/QUOT
I read that Judy Mitkovits will not appear on tv for the time being, to air her weird views-
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/24/m...ing/index.html
Here, in the UK, the problem is stark. As the country relaxes its physical distancing and quarantine measures -but they differ between England, Scotland and Wales- the further relaxation on foreign travel to designated countries has now led the UK Govt to insist everyone returning from Spain quarantine themselves for 14 days, due to a sudden spike in Catalonia.
The Spanish are not happy about it, and on The World this Weekend on BBC Radio 4, the Spanish spokesman made the point that it is unnecessary to quarantine if returning travellers are tested, and traced to their homes. But that is precisely why the Govt has imposed quarantine conditions: because what Boris Johnson called a 'world beating' track and trace system, has not been effective in tracing or tracking the people it needs to.
The logical thing woud be to test returning travellers at the border, and if they test postive, they know what to do -but it doesn't happen. For this reason, either the Govt is going to find itself shutting places down as new cases are recorded, or eventually they might just give up. This is also why the Vaccine is both practical science, and an emissary from Almighty God that will Save us All. But suppose it doesn't?
I no longer find it hard to believe that in 21st Century Britain we cannot find the means to create an effective test and trace system, because I can easily believe that the people we trust to make effective policy are simply no good at their jobs. Do they understand smart phone technology? The situation in the UK is not as bad as it is in the USA, where cases continue to rise at an alarming rate mostly due to indifference in those States where it is happening, an indifference based on wilful ignorance. But what Covid 19 demonstrates again and again is a persistence and ease of transmission that begs the question: did we relax control measures too early? And, can we lockdown again with the same effect as in March?
https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/artic...d-fail/1687115
I hope Nikka does continue to update us. Aubrey seems to be tweeting updates on her twitter account for those who are interested in checking in once in a while. Wishing her and Jessy well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Del06
https://twitter.com/AUBREYKATEXXX
Boosting interferons with existing drugs may be a key to treatment and prevention.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-beat-covid-19
The British Columbia Centre for Disease Control's website has an entire section dedicated to sex education during the virus pandemic. Deep within, government leading health experts suggest "glory holes" could be the safest technique to minimize virus spreading during sex.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...uring-pandemic
How could saliva on your dick, not spread Covid? About the same as kissing. I'll take a pass.
I think we have reached a critical phase in this pandemic, and it appears to present the same dilemma, whether it is the UK, Continental Europe or the USA and the rest of the world. We know that many people, perhaps the majority, can be infected with the virus and not fall ill, just as we know many who are infected and hospitalized survive and return home, some of them with problems they might be dealing with for years to come, some recovering completely.
But what does not appear to be in doubt, is that because the virus is air-borne and has a wicked ability to transmit from one person to another, relaxing lockdown measures is contributing to an extension of viral infections when, in spite of aggregate numbers declining where they are, in the UK for example, young people not infected by the virus are nevertheless carriers, and thus constitute the most potent threat if not to the rest of society, its elderly and medically vulnerable people.
A pub in Staffordshire opened to customers but apparently did not exercise strict distancing measures. Packed out for some private event, it later emerged 10 had tested positive for Covid 19
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/crown-anch...135545041.html
It seems to me that Governments must decide if physical distancing measures be re-imposed where they have been lifted, and maintained where they continue to exist. In some countries, for example the USA, it is clear that some States have failed their citizens by not imposing severe limits on human congregation. But, and this is the critical point, are we reaching a moment when people even if they care, decide to 'take their chances' on free movement, with Government unable or unwilling to stop them? With economic decline now a reality for so many, are we at 'breaking point'? And does it mean middle-aged and elderly people must in effect, quarantine themselves in fear of open spaces occupied by reckless youngsters?
It will be interesting to see how the right spins this:
https://people.com/politics/herman-c...g-coronavirus/
I like to think of it as his body being his editor. He made reckless public statements and his body issued a correction by dying.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo
Probably sounds mean, but I wouldn't have any such hard feelings if Herman and others preaching ignorance weren't getting thousands of people killed. All sympathy to those who die while taking reasonable precautions or performing important societal functions. Wearing a red hat at a rally in a covid hot spot to own the libs is not one.
Completely agree 1000%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo
I hope someone reviews her cases.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...4227f53734eb81
Chile is doing better
This situation is just so sad and stupid . And I think that in a court of law or if called before a medical licencing board it would easily qualify as unethical and sufficient grounds for medical licence suspension or revocation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
Unfortunately having completed 4 years of undergraduate STEM studies followed by 4 years or more of post graduate medical education is no guarantee of having learned how to think critically !
Apparently another source of spread are family gatherings. Controlling freedom of movement in public is hard enough. Try imposing restrictions on being able to visit family and friends in private homes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
At this point, I don't think re-imposing lock downs is the answer. I still believe there has to be a way for kids to go back to school. So I think the only answer is this and its not going to sound fair, but none of what's been happening for the past six months has been. The elderly and medically vulnerable may just have to quarantine themselves, while everybody else eases back into a masked, tested, and traced society.
If there are certain businesses that want to continue to let their employees work from home, that would be great. But I think we also need get business areas thriving again because of how many other businesses depend on office workers.
Indoor dining, movie theaters, and gyms can't remained closed indefinitely with no plan in sight of how to re-open them. So if those businesses can prove they can re-open safely, I say let them do it.
Finally, if its possible I say start having outdoor events at a limited/reduced and masked capacity.
The British government has just reintroduced these restrictions in the North of England due to rising cases. Family is just a set of potential disease carriers and if you pop them in a confined indoor space with one or more of them a carrier then chances are they’ll have multiple carriers once they leave....and then spread it if they don’t adhere to social distancing, sanitising etc.Quote:
Apparently another source of spread are family gatherings. Controlling freedom of movement in public is hard enough. Try imposing restrictions on being able to visit family and friends in private homes
I agree that policing it is a different matter I think that it depends on how close to home it is to you. it was scary during lockdown and people have relaxed their attitudes.
Three big studies show no success in treating or preventing SARS-CoV 2 with Hydroxychloroquine.Quote:
Originally Posted by sukumvit boy
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...event-covid-19
As noted in my post #421 above existing interferon drugs are.
This makes an assumption that is not really plausible. The assumption is that if we have a virus that is spreading wildly among our population, that we can protect the most vulnerable members of society.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
The biggest predictor of the number of new cases is the baseline number of cases you start with. What I mean is that it takes quite a lot of public health efforts to get r0 to 1, which basically means that each infected person infects one more person. If we have 70,000 diagnosed cases per day, an R0 of 1 would mean we're carrying that many forward
For sure, elderly people are safer if they stay in than if they go out, but how do they get groceries? How do they get medical care? If they live in assisted living, who is it staffed by?
If there truly will be an effective vaccine by early next year, I wonder what it is you're getting as a benefit for tens of thousands of people dying. We couldn't subsidize certain businesses for six more months? Children can't be out of school for one semester? Why isn't Sweden's economy stronger than its neighbors economies when it is the only Scandinavian country not to shutdown?
For sure, if this is a disease that the first round of vaccines and antibody treatments don't touch, we would have to find a way to live with it. But why should we base our public health efforts around that sort of fatalism. Would you want to be the last person to get very sick before a vaccine is distributed?
Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan
To make sure that elderly people get groceries and medical care, we keep doing the same things that we did during the lockdowns. Supermarkets set aside special hours for them to shop. For routine care, many hospitals are now offering virtual visits. Be they through the telephone or Skype. Family members can help them get to doctor's appointments and/or surgical procedures. There is also things like Access-a-ride or Para Transit.
If they live in assisted living, you take the same precautions that you were doing before. That includes making sure that you don't send people back into the homes that haven't fully recovered from the Corona Virus yet.
If we can figure out way to get kids safely back into the schools, I say we should take that chance. If we can figure out way to keep businesses open, while at the same time keeping people safe and healthy, I say we should take that chance.
Even if an effective vaccine is developed by the end of this year, its going to take at least another month or two to manufacture, distribute, and inoculate people. So we are looking at February/March before things get back to normal. That's a semester and half for children to be out of school. Plus a lot longer to subsidize certain businesses and for people to be out of work.
I think I should make something clear. I don't think this should all happen by Monday, August 3rd. I'm talking about a gradual return over the course of the next 6 weeks.
Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse , new strains of flu virus with pandemic infectious potential are discovered on pig farms in China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704
we need to pray
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchubby38
You are right to draw attention to family gatherings, which I neglected to mention before. If what in the UK we call 'BAME' communities (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic communities) have been affected more by Covid 19 than others, one reason is that the elderly relatives remain in the BAME home, and they are used to living all together in one house. It is easy to slide from this sociological fact to cast blame on BAME, just as at the moment Muslims are a target because of their attendance at Mosques even if worshippers now wear masks.
The dllemma of human congegation we know, but even if the elderly remain isolated compared to others, what happens to those in their 40s or 50s who are vulnerable to infection too? There is no easy way out of this cycle of infection-remission-infection, but I suggest it is due to a) quarantine measures beginning too late to have immediate effect, the virus was on holiday when it should have been in prison; b) the absence of a comprehensive test and tracing organization, which in the UK with a comprehensive NHS we ought to have been able to arrange, means the Govt did not have an accurate geographical profile of the viral spread; and c) relaxation of quarantine measures being lifted too early. In some parts of the USA, as we know, there were no effective quarantine measures and with human congregation common those States are now suffering.
9/11 should have been the template for all: a nationally co-ordinated, total shutdown, with immediate effect.
'Nobody is safe until we are all safe' - but everyone is not safe from the 'flu, and at some point I think we will have to settle for a situation in which Covid 19 becomes as common as the Cold and the 'flu, with the possible outcome that this SARS-related illness can be to some degree be eliminated as have other SARS-related illnesses, so that annual cases of Covid 19 do not cause the havoc they have so far.
I also think that a lot of people now don't trust the advice the Govt is giving, and will ignore some of it. Surveys have claimed that a lot of people decided to go their own way when it was discovered Boris Johnson's special adviser, Dominic Cummings had violated basic self-isolation rules to take his child from London to his parents home in the grim North, and then waft away questions about it as if it were not important. If he could do what he wanted, why not the rest of the country? We have been poorly led in the UK, at least in England. Scotland was also late to the party, though Nicola Sturgeon appears to have a better grip on it than Boris, too busy trying to save Brexit while dishing out awards and privieges to his little Brother and an assortment of Brexit fanatics.
Does this mean wearing masks in public places for some time to come? I think so. The irony is that when I lived in London, or go there, as I have to later this month, I often wished I had a mask on a crowded bus or crowded subway train to protect me from people exuding extraordinary smells, and not just garlic breath. I once fell ill after travelling on a bus on which a young man had a grotesque cough that sounded like it had been orchestratd by Stockhausen - a mask then might have spared me the two weeks I spent in bed. So masks I think are here to stay.
And when the vaccine arrives, who gets it first? And who gets it last?
Here is who gets the vaccine first:Quote:
Originally Posted by Stavros
People aged 50 and above.
People in their 40s' with severe preexisting conditions*
All front line workers. That includes people in the service and retail industry.
*-Even though I'm 46 with HTN that is controlled with medication, I'm willing to wait until the second round of vaccinations.
I think once everyone has been vaccinated, you can SLOWLY lift mask mandates and make wearing them voluntary.