Israel: Turn Right for the Abyss

An article in The Hill exposes the problem: the mistakes of history being repeated -again, and again.

"For all of its rhetoric about protecting Lebanon from Israeli aggression, Hezbollah’s actions in recent years have done more to destabilize the country than to safeguard it. And now, with Israel’s recent infiltration and systematic dismantling of Hezbollah’s military apparatus, the cracks in its image are more visible than ever."
The myth of Hezbollah has been shattered (thehill.com)

Here is another version

"In the mid-20th century, Lebanon was one of the wealthiest and most prosperous countries in the Middle East. Its capital, Beirut, was once known as the Paris of the Middle East. It was the only state in the Middle East where Christianity was dominant, at one point making up over 60% of the population.Decades later, “the country is in free fall,” according to one expert. A 15-year-long sectarian civil war, an influx of Palestinian and Syrian refugees, foreign interventions, large-scale emigration, and deep corruption turned Lebanon into one of the poorest and least stable countries in a poor and volatile region. The past four years have seen a series of crises that resulted in the collapse of the Lebanese economy and mismanagement contributing to the 2020 Beirut port blast that devastated the city. The once-thriving Christian community has plummeted to roughly one-third of the population."
Lebanon’s once-thriving Christian population dwindling as country approaches collapse - Washington Examiner

For reasons not explained, Janine di Giovanni, in her book The Vanishing: The Twilight of Christianity in the Middle East (2021) does not dedicate a chapter to Lebanon, and only mentions it in passing, though when she points out the influx of -mostly Muslim- refugees from Syria into Lebanon owing to the Asad war + ISIS, she could have remarked on how this series of events that has been one factor in the destabilization of Lebanon was similar to the influx of Palestinians into Lebanon following the Arab-Israeli war of 1967 and the Jordanian Government's expulsion of the PLO from that country between 1970-71.

In 1969 the Lebanese Govt reached an agreement with the PLO which effectively protected them, expanding the refugee camps that has existed since 1948, giving the PLO considerable authority over the southern areas where many refugees settled, but creating tensions with the largely Shi'a communities there -weak at the time, they created a political movement, Amal, to counter Palestinian influence, while more broadly resentment with the PLO fomented until breaking out into Civil War in 1974-75, a war that was sent spiralling into chaos when Israel invaded in 1982 in order to destroy the PLO owing to cross-border incidents with Menachem Begin saying 'enough is enough', or words to that effect, or if you like, the same words used by Netanyahu in the UN yesterday when justifying yet another round of bombing and destruction in Beirut. And what was the legacy of 1982? Hizbollah.

And just as Begin vowed to destroy the PLO, and didn't, so Netanyahu vows to destroy HAMAS and Hizbollah and will fail as surely as the sun rises in the morning.

Yes, Lebanon was once the largest Christian majority country in the region, because that is how the French created it. Just as Britain via the League of Nations created Palestine, TransJordan and Iraq in 1921, so France took over most of the Arab territory of the defeated Ottoman Empire (not all, the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 was amended after the war to award the Mosul province of what was going to be in Syria to the British, thus becoming part of Iraq).

The French invented Lebanon as a Christian country, but it was never stable, as insurrections all over French territory made governance of a 'country' difficult, not least because the French rejected the wishes of the Arabs to rule themselves and imposed themselves through military force, much as the British were never welcome in Palestine. To the victor the spoils -as Churchill once protested when being told the Hashemite Sherif of Mecca was complaining about the British take over of Palestine 'he didn't win the war, we did!'.

So here we are again -an Israel that contains at least 4 million people who don't want it, were never asked if they wanted it, and have no rights inside it -this being Israeli 'democracy'. One social group not invading but seeking refuge in the country of another upsetting the balance of identities, creating tensions, corruption, and ultimately violence, while external actors pile in with their own agendas, fuelling low intensity warfare with dollars and bombs, and for what? Because people can't get along with each other.

Imagine if the British Govt in response to the Birmingham pub bombings in 1974, or the Brighton Hotel bombing in 1984 had led the RAF to bomb the Bogside into rubble, or laid waste to West Belfast, 90% of the 'Nationalist' or 'Catholic' population forced from their homes, flooding into the Republic, or living in tents on waste ground -it would have created a crisis in the UK and a whole heap of condemnation from around the world.

But at the time Thatcher said 'we don't deal with terrorists', until she did, and authorised secret talks with the IRA, talks that were continued under John Major, until Blair brought it all out into the open and a deal was struck that has transformed a province of chronic hate and violence into so tolerable a place they filmed much of Game of Thrones there. The Quarter-Master of the IRA, Martin McGuiness was as far as I know, never the target of assassination attempts by the SAS though he was an easy target throughout the Troubles, while Israel assassinated any number of leading PLO figures and could have murdered Arafat at any time, just as we believe they have or wish to assassinate Nasrallah today in Lebanon. When the late Queen visited Northern Ireland, she met McGuiness who by then was No 2 in the Power Sharing arrangement that ended the Troubles.

So there you have it: the forced movement of people from war in one country destabilizing another already weak state, leading to civil war and Israeli bombing -could be 1982, could be 2024. 'Terrorist' organizations that are going to be smashed, its leaders dead. Then come the negotiations, the peace treaties- as with Israel and the PLO in 1993- until someone else decides this ain't right, and they go back to what they did before, killing people.

So try this: Netanyahu, stop the bombing, and pick up the phone. You supported HAMAS from the day it was created in 1988 to the 7th of October 2023. Swallow your pride and admit everything you have done since the assassination of Rabin has been a failure. Try the one thing you have not done, peace instead of war.

But I guess it is not going to happen, HAMAS don't want it -not right now- and the Americans are not good for anything except dollars and bombs. Netanyahu spits in Biden's face every day, while the hand goes out- 'give us more'.

More of the same, as if the same old over the last 100 years had not proven the same old don't work.

SitRep Sept 2024: Situation Currently Hopeless.

"US President Joe Biden has described Hassan Nasrallah's killing as a "measure of justice for his many victims".He says these include "thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese civilians".".
Israel-Lebanon latest: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in Beirut - BBC News

So why didn't the US kill him? They had the means, the motive and so many opportunities.

The world waits with mouths agape -are we about to see another turn of the spiral into forever war?

The new President of Iran is, relative to his predecessors, a reformist who wants to some degree better relations with the West, mostly for economic reasons, but with a revived nuclear deal on the table, or maybe the sidelines, judging by Patrick Wintour's article below.

What would happen if, instead of fire and brimstone, Iran offered a new deal that sought peace rather than war? It might be hard to predict, given Iran's close relations with Russia at the moment, but if the weakening -for the time being- of Hizbollah were to offer a 'reset' of the kind that, following Saddam's catastrophic invasion of Kuwait led to the Oslo Accords, it would wrong-foot Netanyahu, as the agenda would include a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of the hostages, a diplomatic recognition of Israel by Iran, and, wait for it, 'sovereignty' or even a state for the Palestinians.

Problem is Netanyahu doesn't like packages, and always preferred bi-lateral rather than multi-lateral deals, so however tempting it would be to have an Israel-Iran relationship, with the added promise of Saudi Arabia (who would not want to be left out of the advance), Netanyahu would have to weight the benefits with the dissent of the crazies in his Cabinet who, assuming they rejected it, would end Netanyahu's career, and Middle East peace with it, though in all cases, Palestinian rights would be the last item on the agenda.

Iran's President Khatami offered a new relationship with the US after 9/11. They had Bin Laden's family under house arrest in Tehran, they hated al-Qaeda, but Bush rejected the offer, not even Obama could move beyond the nuclear deal to end the US-Iran hostility.

So it all looks bleak, because Netanyahu is not Rabin. But what has been achieved? Israel assassinated al-Musawi when he was leader of Hizbollah, now it has assassinated Nasrallah. This time next year if not next month, Hizbollah will have a new leader. Whether the organization remains powerful in Lebanon is not so sure, it has its constituencies in the South and the Bekaa Valley, but many Lebanese are fed up with them, but populate a weak, fragmented State, which now has to contend with Israel's destruction, and yet another crisis of human displacement -where are these people made homeless going to live? Who is going to pay for the reconstruction in Beirut and Gaza and the other zones of obliteration? Those suckers called Americans?

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah leaves Iran with a fateful choice and the US humiliated | Hezbollah | The Guardian

Netanyahu must be having a military grade orgasm. He has what he has always wanted in his existential obsession: to prove that Israel is the dominant military power in the Middle East, and cannot be beaten. And I don't think he is wrong to think that, as the US armaments Israel has are superior to what Iran has, and there is the longer term view that Netanyahu has stated that is the same phrase Tony Blair used with regard to regime change in Iraq: 'We need to remake the Middle East'. The violence that is being used to achieve an aim that has no clear objective other than the end of the Islamic Republic in Iran and the elimination of HAMAS and Hizbollah, may in the short term deliver severe blows, and there is a slight possibility of change in Iran, though one underestimates the internal conflict between those who desire reform (and the new Iranian PM is at least in principle a reformer), and the diehard supporters of the Ayatollahs -Israel, in seeking to change Iran, may only de-stabilize it much as Bush and Blair trashed Iraq, with all the gruesome results that followed there.

But if this cripples Iran and leaves its civilians in a dire mess, that too is for Netanyahu an achievement, because what Netanyahu has committed himself to is the opposite of diplomacy, of the kind that led to Israel signing a peace agreement with Egypt in 1979 -with no cross border attacks since then- and Jordan in 1993 (ditto), and the PLO also in 1993, a treaty Sharon and Netanyahu (and HAMAS) trashed so they could go back to the 100 years war that has so far not produced a solution to the simple fact that Arabs and Jews live in the same space, and should learn how to share it.

So here we go again, war, war, and yet more war. As if there was no alternative. As for the price of oil per barrel, and the laws of war, well I guess they are all up in the air, and soaring....

"Israel will attack Iran within days and could strike oil facilities or even nuclear sites, according to reports. The Israeli response could include targeted assassinations as well as air strikes, Israeli officials told Axios news website.
...Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, has urged Israel to “destroy [Iran’s] nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime.”".
Israel-Hezbollah war latest: Israel ‘will launch retaliation on Iran’s oil production within days’ (telegraph.co.uk)

A fair assessment

After a fortnight of military triumph, what is Israel’s endgame? | Israel | The Guardian

One year on, and there is no end of bloodshed, and no end of Bullshit, most of it from the Americans, though I do believe there are educated Americans who do not share the outrageous bias of their media, though it seems when Gallant described the Palestinians as 'animals' he was probably just echoing what others think.
The mainstream media has failed us after 7 October | Peter Beinart | The Guardian

As someone with family ties to the region, who has been there, lived, written about it, and lamented too many times the myopic violence and hate, today is not as special as it is for those who mark October 7th with grief, because we have been here before. The wonder is that after 100 years it still goes on.

Over the weekend, when I was in Stockholm, surely one of the least interesting of Europe's capitals, I read two thought-provoking interesting articles.

Raja Shehadeh, whose writing about Palestinians life has always been eloquent and deeply human, writes about the widening gulf between Arab and Jew, and, as it gets wider, so too do the prospects of any kind of dialogue, let alone reconciliation. It is one of his most depressing pieces of journalism, but nevertheless important.
When will this horror end? When Israel realises that the cost of destroying us is too high | Raja Shehadeh | The Guardian

Particularly when read with this other article, which goes some way to exposing how divisions in Israel among its Jews now make it impossible for some to live there, and not just anyone, but the kind of secular intellectual and entrepreneurial elite who have been central to Israel's economic success over the last 40 years -only they can't cope with the Fascism of Netayahu, Smotrich, Gen-Gvir and even worse, the people on the ground who support them.
A year of war accelerates ‘silent departure’ of Israel’s elite | Israel | The Guardian

The dream of Jabotinsky and Stern, of Begin and Sharon is being realized in Netanyahu, but crucially, among a wider spectrum of the Israeli public who in 1993 might have thought of Rabin -yes let's Give Peace a Chance.

Margaret Thatcher once denied the Provisional IRA the 'oxygen of publicity' -and not long after enabled back channel talks with the very same people we were not allowed to hear talk on TV. John Major maintained those talks and sought a different kind of relationship with the Republic of Ireland, so Blair, with the redoubtable Mo Mowlam at the helm, could build on existing forms of dialogue to end a war characterised by the same kind of ignorance and hate we see in the Middle East: It can Be Done.

But note, the UK never bombed Belfast or 'Derry' to nothing, the Catholics were not slaughtered on mass or driven south to 'their' Republic. And yet, had Netanyahu on the evening of October 7th called Sinwar and said :THIS ENDS HERE, who knows?

I lament the lack of decency and courage, as if such simple virtues have no place in this world.

Ни славом униат ни платком вытереть

The latest Diktat from the Master of all he Sees

"Israel's prime minister has urged the Lebanese people to throw out Hezbollah and avoid "destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza".
During a video address directed at the people of Lebanon, Netanyahu said: "You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.
"I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end."".
Netanyahu warns Lebanon of 'destruction like Gaza' - BBC News

One possible alternative
"I say to you, the people of Israel, free your country from the Likud and its allies, so that this war can end".

Likud in the Knesset: 32 seats
Hizbollah in the Lebanese Parliament: 13 (*part of a 61 seat Coalition in the Parliament)

Hezbollah and its allies lose majority in Lebanon's parliament : NPR
Israel: parliament election results by party 2022 | Statista

More drivel from the swivel eyed loon

a) has never been to Gaza
b) Gaza better than Monaco...makes you wonder if he has ever been there. Is there a more exquisite harbour than Monte Carlo, and is it not one of the reasons people go there to live?

Douglas Murray, a pioneer of preposterous potty politics, once argued that Gaza could have become Singapore on the Med, were it not for crazy HAMAS death-is-better-than-life types. As if Israel would tolerate an economic success story on its southern Border that could or would undermine its own economic strength (as was, given that Bibi's War is costing them -and the US taxpayer- the Earth).

Give it some thought: which is the most likely location for 'Singapore on the Med'? Gaza? No. Cyprus? No. Crete? No. Rhodes? No. Sicily? No. Gibraltar? Definitely No.

Malta. And it hasn't happened. End of story.

Trump appears to falsely claim he’s been to Gaza – and says it could be ‘better than Monaco’ | The Independent

I don't know if Yahya Sinwar has been assassinated by Israel, it is really not that important. It may be a military victory for Israel, and it is undeniable that they have some stunning intelligence networks, not just in Israel but across the world, even if, when they fail they do so in spectacular fashion, eg 1973, and October 7 2024.

Israel spent years tracking down most of the men they held responsible for the Munich Olympic massacres, most of them from Black September. Though an offshoot of Fateh, their elimination did not affect Fateh that much -Black September was wound up in 1974, and just under 20 years later Arafat was shaking hands with Yitzhak Rabin and singing a peace treaty. Killing the leaders of HAMAS, or Hizbollah or any or all senior figures in the 'Palestinian movement' does nothing, absolutely nothing to deal with the one reality that Netanyahu cannot or will not try to resolve: the 4 million Palestinian men, women and children who live in Israel without any of the rights that Israeli citizens have.

The extremists -even more extreme than Netanyahu- might want to expel every Palestinian from the Gaza District, even the West Bank, but nobody knows how, or where 4 million are supposed to live, while further north, Lebanese refugees moving into Syria are in dire situations, perhaps another 1, 2 or 20 million will be made homeless by Israel, and who is going to stop them?

And to think all it needed, on October 7th was a phone call from Netanyahu to the leader of HAMAS that Israel and Netanyahu supported and nurtured from the day it was created, saying 'This Stops Here'.

One wonders if that nauseating coward in Israel will soon be joined by that spineless, ignorant coward Trump in their campaign of death, misery and homelessness. Dare we hope for better days ahead?

Middle East crisis live: Israeli army says it is ‘checking possibility’ it killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar (theguardian.com)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stavros

And to think all it needed, on October 7th was a phone call from Netanyahu to the leader of HAMAS that Israel and Netanyahu supported and nurtured from the day it was created, saying 'This Stops Here'.


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