-
The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
1) Vote Early, if they let you
Early voting has already begun in the Mid-Terms, and the first rejections have taken place in Georgia where a Black woman was told her vote has been challenged. She was not told by whom, or why, and it was probably because she has a PhD, and was determined enough to make enquiries to discover that a brief clause in the new election act in fact would have allowed the election clerk to accept the vote. One can imagine that less persistent voters, voters with other things to do that day, might just go home, while the prospect of most Black votes being challenged is real.
The report is here-
Early voters in Georgia face obstacles under state’s new election law | US news | The Guardian
2) Gunmen on Patrol, Watch your back!
Armed men have been parked near drop off boxes at night in Arizona, or Arizona doubling for a Military Dictatorship. Whether it deters voters from posting their ballots remains to be seen, but it does indicate that the boys in uniform may yet decide who gets to vote. Or maybe it is just bravado? Maybe someone can take them a drink of water?
The report is here-
Armed and masked 'ballot watchers' sat by ballot drop boxes in Arizona late at night, prompting police investigation (yahoo.com)
3) In any event, if Republicans lose the vote, they will change it
The argument here is that Republicans cannot lose. It doesn't matter how many votes are thrown out, if they still lose the popular vote, they have mechanisms to 'correct' the vote their way. Otherwise, we are told, it will be 'civil war'. Might be best to just cancel the vote and go straight to your local Gettysburg.
The report is here-
Pollster warns of post-midterm ‘civil war’ if voters don’t accept election results (yahoo.com)
Almost as tense as the UK waiting to find out who the next Prime Minster will be. And the Conservative Party doesn't have to bother the voters with that one!
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
1) Vote Early, if they let you
Early voting has already begun in the Mid-Terms, and the first rejections have taken place in Georgia where a Black woman was told her vote has been challenged. She was not told by whom, or why, and it was probably because she has a PhD, and was determined enough to make enquiries to discover that a brief clause in the new election act in fact would have allowed the election clerk to accept the vote. One can imagine that less persistent voters, voters with other things to do that day, might just go home, while the prospect of most Black votes being challenged is real.
The report is here-
Early voters in Georgia face obstacles under state’s new election law | US news | The Guardian
2) Gunmen on Patrol, Watch your back!
Armed men have been parked near drop off boxes at night in Arizona, or Arizona doubling for a Military Dictatorship. Whether it deters voters from posting their ballots remains to be seen, but it does indicate that the boys in uniform may yet decide who gets to vote. Or maybe it is just bravado? Maybe someone can take them a drink of water?
The report is here-
Armed and masked 'ballot watchers' sat by ballot drop boxes in Arizona late at night, prompting police investigation (yahoo.com)
3) In any event, if Republicans lose the vote, they will change it
The argument here is that Republicans cannot lose. It doesn't matter how many votes are thrown out, if they still lose the popular vote, they have mechanisms to 'correct' the vote their way. Otherwise, we are told, it will be 'civil war'. Might be best to just cancel the vote and go straight to your local Gettysburg.
The report is here-
Pollster warns of post-midterm ‘civil war’ if voters don’t accept election results (yahoo.com)
Almost as tense as the UK waiting to find out who the next Prime Minster will be. And the Conservative Party doesn't have to bother the voters with that one!
All of this is happening because the MAGA King Donald Trump made false claims about the 2020 Election being stolen from him,and he did everything he could to overturn the results from filing ridiculous lawsuits,asking the US Supreme Court to intervene,asking the Georgia Secretary Of State to find 11,780 votes, and causing an insurrection to stop the certification of the ballots in an attempt to stay in power,and nearly 2 years later he's still out there spreading misinformation about the 2020 Election.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
KnightHawk 2.0
All of this is happening because the MAGA King Donald Trump made false claims about the 2020 Election being stolen from him,and he did everything he could to overturn the results from filing ridiculous lawsuits,asking the US Supreme Court to intervene,asking the Georgia Secretary Of State to find 11,780 votes, and causing an insurrection to stop the certification of the ballots in an attempt to stay in power,and nearly 2 years later he's still out there spreading misinformation about the 2020 Election.
But long before Trump you had Newton Gingrich, so the question is, why has the Republican Party become the 'nasty party' of the USA? It has been in power so many times in the last 50 years yet casts itself and its voters as victims. It uses this position of grievance to attack, insult and abuse the very people whose votes they should be attempting to win, or have they reached a point where they do not consider certain people to be 'Americans' or in Tucker Carlson's phrase, 'Legacy Americans'?
And when they are not nasty, they are just plain ignorant. I don't know much about Herschel Walker, but from what snippets I have seen he comes across as a barely coherent fool, so who suggested he run for public office? People laugh at the UK because of the chaos caused in our politics by Brexit, but the laughter generated by Trump is more than a little nervous, and is based on deep fear. I am not sure who will be laughing in November. More like tears.
But, why?
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
But long before Trump you had Newton Gingrich, so the question is, why has the Republican Party become the 'nasty party' of the USA? It has been in power so many times in the last 50 years yet casts itself and its voters as victims. It uses this position of grievance to attack, insult and abuse the very people whose votes they should be attempting to win, or have they reached a point where they do not consider certain people to be 'Americans' or in Tucker Carlson's phrase, 'Legacy Americans'?
And when they are not nasty, they are just plain ignorant. I don't know much about Herschel Walker, but from what snippets I have seen he comes across as a barely coherent fool, so who suggested he run for public office? People laugh at the UK because of the chaos caused in our politics by Brexit, but the laughter generated by Trump is more than a little nervous, and is based on deep fear. I am not sure who will be laughing in November. More like tears.
But, why?
Completely agree the Republican Party has become the party of Nastiness and Ignorance ,who cast themselves and their voters as victims,and use their position of grievance to attack their supporters because their don't certain people to be americans. The Ignorant Fool Herschel Walker is the type of candidate they like,because he'll do what they tell him to do and support him. And also agree that the laughter from the MAGA King Donald Trump is based on fear. Because the Republican Party want to be in control of the House and Senate,and will do anything to obtain that power.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
There's a lot at stake because Trump has always represented a slide into fascism and post-truth politics. The Republican Party has been the party of Trump since 2016, were unmoved by a coup he tried to carry out, and now endorse pretty open antisemitism, along with the racism, Islamophobia and hatred of the transgender community that has been their staple for a long time. They've overturned Roe, have their eye on Obergefell and gay marriage, and have pretty much convinced people that facing any consequences for overt hatred by private citizens or companies is "cancel culture" rather than society doing what it's always done by enforcing social norms.
I will be voting early and straight Democratic ticket.
There have been some good posts by Filghy and Stavros about whether the Republican party under Trump is merely a more extreme version of the same insidious politics we saw with the tea party and before that with Gingrich in the 90s. They've generally convinced me that the party is not categorically different but was headed in this direction and primed by Trump's predecessors to tolerate more and more extreme behavior. And still I feel we've reached a tipping point where just about everyone who is female, gay, transgender, Black, Jewish, Muslim, or any visible minority should feel threatened by what they're doing.
Republicans will support Black people, but only if they don't support voting rights for other Black people. They support Jews, but only those who they can placate with militaristic nonsense about Israel, while engaging in financial conspiracy theories about Jews and tolerating public speech that pretty much identifies us as enemies of the state. I have not seen them use Muslims in the same way (maybe indicating their hatred is unconditional and there are no compromises available to individual Muslims who want to be part of their shitshow), but then there are the Log Cabin Republicans who find themselves banned from GOP sponsored events yet still wanting to be part of the big tent. But what do they stand for? A return to an era where base prejudices could be openly expressed without social consequences? Fundamentalist Christian doctrine enforced against women and the lgbt community? What the hell does all of this do for anyone except socialize human misery?
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
I have said it before, but I think the US system enables more extremists, weirdos and incompetents to enter public office than most other Liberal Democracies. Part of this is due to the absence of a proper membership roll and rules.
In the past, men and women seeking office in Congress used to have experience at some level in their State, from their House/Senate all the way to Governor, which for some was one of the best placed offices for any aspiring President, although I think, statistically, being VP has been the most common key to the Oval Office.
But anyone can declare themselves a Democrat or a Republican, vote in the Primaries, and put themselves forward for election, whereas if you had a Roll and Rules, then for example, it would not be possible for someone without, say, 5 years of membership. It used to be the case in the UK Labour Party that you could not get onto the Panel for Parliament without a vote by the local Party, and that wasn't possible if people didn't know who you were but I don't know if it still holds, but on this basis, Trump would not have been able to represent the Republicans.
Indeed, he realized when he ran as an Independent in 2000 that he had no machine to carry him nationwide -and pay for it-, and was also not well known enough to the public -but on most aspects of his personal history and what was known of his character, he was, and remains unfit for public office, but the Party had no way of preventing him from standing, and got for their reward a man totally absorbed by himself, and completely incapable, as Bob Woodward said yesterday-
"“Trump is an unparalleled danger,” Woodward wrote in a Washington Post essay adapted from the new audiobook. “When you listen to him on the range of issues from foreign policy to the virus to racial injustice, it’s clear he did not know what to do. Trump was overwhelmed by the job. He was largely disconnected from the needs and leadership expectations of the public and his absolute self-focus became the presidency.”"
Trump Tapes Reveal He's 'Dangerous' And 'A Threat To Democracy,' Bob Woodward Warns | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk)
Either Trump has made conspiracy theories and extreme policies 'mainstream', or it is the decades of 'failure' by previous Democrat and Republican politics that has undermined 'the Centre ground' which Trump shifted.
Or, Trump represents a rump of Americans whose grievances are based on what they see as a decline in the Superiority of the 'Legacy Americans', a concept that reaches back to Jamestown and the Mayflower and leap-frogs over Slavery because it remains uncomfortable with the claim that all Americans are equal, and quite deliberately targets Black voters for suppression. This may be why numerically the 'Victims' cannot command more than 30% of the total vote, but are determined to use election law in the States to make, without any irony, Minority rule the norm. And in doing so, to impose policies the people haven't voted for and don't want.
Just one example -having congratulated the Supreme Court on 'returning' the case of Abortion to the State, why have those States not held Referenda to find out what the people in the State want? In a Liberal Democracy, you now have supporters of Trump who believe it has failed them, and who seem to have decided 'People Power' in the State is all that matters, and that rigging the voting system is the best way to achieve it.
But as they don't command a majority nationwide, and have half-wits, and some truly nasty people running for office, it will be interesting to see if they can transform their grievances into real power. Is it possible that voters have seen what Trump and his Apostles have to offer in terms of violence and disruption -and don't want that? We shall see soon enough.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
There have been some good posts by Filghy and Stavros about whether the Republican party under Trump is merely a more extreme version of the same insidious politics we saw with the tea party and before that with Gingrich in the 90s. They've generally convinced me that the party is not categorically different but was headed in this direction and primed by Trump's predecessors to tolerate more and more extreme behavior. And still I feel we've reached a tipping point where just about everyone who is female, gay, transgender, Black, Jewish, Muslim, or any visible minority should feel threatened by what they're doing.
There's been a lot of continuity, but nonetheless it's alarming how quickly the Republican Party has been taken over by the crazies and extremists. January 6 was obviously a watershed moment and all but a few quickly decided to acquiesce in election denialism and resist any accountability for what happened. Two years after Kevin McCarthy said there was no place in the party for QAnon he is now embracing them. Some Republicans are now talking openly about anti-democratic solutions and ignoring the courts.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...edpill-moldbug
I really wonder what is going through the minds of the more normal Republicans (politicians and voters). I know some have quit, but there's no sign of mass desertions. Are they in denial about what is happening? Do they think they can keep their positions by appeasing the crazies? Do they not care as long as they get low taxes and deregulation?
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
I have said it before, but I think the US system enables more extremists, weirdos and incompetents to enter public office than most other Liberal Democracies. Part of this is due to the absence of a proper membership roll and rules.
Well, you still got Liz Truss, and Jeremy Corbyn on the other side. The problem is that party memberships are very small (only 81,000 members voted for Truss) and tend to be people with more zealous views than the general electorate. In theory, there should be a corrective - extremists and incompetents lose the general election and the party chooses someone more appealing next time. However, this doesn't always work, especially if the electoral system allows minority rule.
I'm not so sure that a strict membership vote would have blocked Trump in 2016. I know he wasn't popular with the Party machine back then, but he seemed to have quickly become popular with the rank-and-file.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
But as they don't command a majority nationwide, and have half-wits, and some truly nasty people running for office, it will be interesting to see if they can transform their grievances into real power. Is it possible that voters have seen what Trump and his Apostles have to offer in terms of violence and disruption -and don't want that? We shall see soon enough.
Great post Stavros. I'm not sure whether this is an important point but I've talked to a few people close to Trump and either their love of how he denigrates others distorts their view of his capabilities or he has some quality that makes him very effective. I think it's a bit of both.
One thing I think he has is a kind of animal cunning. There are some very good poker players who are not very good analytical thinkers even though understanding probabilities and pot odds is an important part of the game. They have an intuitive sense when someone is concerned, or bluffing, or strong, and no hesitation to use this information to their benefit.
For a guy who cannot even master the simplest subject, Trump seems to tap into the Republican zeitgeist and pick up themes and grievances very easily. Sometimes they are grievances he shares but there's something very predatory about the way he exploits other people's grievances. I also think that in the US there is a tendency to idolize rich people who are not very exceptional. Many can't imagine using their intellect for a more worthy aim than pissing in a golden toilet so the guy who does it must be a genius. But if you look at the way people respond to Elon Musk, who makes a fool out of himself on twitter everyday, it shows the kind of built in advantage someone has if they're rich and openly foolish.
Here he is saying chess is a simple game because the board is only 8 by 8. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1584537377837490177
But back to the main topic that you addressed...our system can be and has been manipulated, both through court stacking and gerrymandering.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
There's been a lot of continuity, but nonetheless it's alarming how quickly the Republican Party has been taken over by the crazies and extremists. January 6 was obviously a watershed moment and all but a few quickly decided to acquiesce in election denialism and resist any accountability for what happened. Two years after Kevin McCarthy said there was no place in the party for QAnon he is now embracing them. Some Republicans are now talking openly about anti-democratic solutions and ignoring the courts.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...edpill-moldbug
I really wonder what is going through the minds of the more normal Republicans (politicians and voters). I know some have quit, but there's no sign of mass desertions. Are they in denial about what is happening? Do they think they can keep their positions by appeasing the crazies? Do they not care as long as they get low taxes and deregulation?
I agree with you about the continuity. The Clinton years were insane, the Bush years were pretty awful, and the tea party movement was a grassroots right-wing grievance machine built on a foundation of conspiracy theories.
I think the rational Republicans who still vote Trump are only rational in the sense that they themselves observe norms and can rationally explain why they support conservative policies. But I think they are irrational in their beliefs about what liberals want. They think liberals want to reward people who aren't working instead of providing a social safety net. But as you say, the biggest problem is their priorities. They regard policies they disagree with, like comprehensive healthcare or student debt relief, as being worse than a President who says dangerous and false things that get people killed or who completely corrupts every branch of federal government.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
For a guy who cannot even master the simplest subject, Trump seems to tap into the Republican zeitgeist and pick up themes and grievances very easily. Sometimes they are grievances he shares but there's something very predatory about the way he exploits other people's grievances.
Your use of the word 'Predatory' seems apt as Bannon, perhaps facing jail-time, has not only lashed out again at Dr Fauci, but said 'when' the Republicans win the Mid-Terms, Fauci and his family will be 'hunted' -but is this rhetoric, or a threat, and from a man who wanted to decapitate Fauci and put his severed head on a pike outside the White House?
It does sound grandiloquent, but the more serious question arises from that video by JD Vance I posted a few days ago, because if you identify the Grievances Trump and his Apostles have, how are they to remedy them?
You have seen the Supreme Court shred most of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, and Roe-v-Wade, and that both have enabled those who want to, to halt Abortions, suppress the Black Vote, make Registration harder, shut own Polling Stations on Election Day, and re-draw the boundaries of Congressional Districts to make it impossible for Black Elected Officials to make it. But with Vance's attack on the Universities as 'the Enemy', one asks how this translates into action.
Is Vance going to re-invent himself as a Little Stalin or Mao and purge the Universities of the 'Liberals' who work there? Will there be a test which involves tenured academics being asked to take a stand on LGBTQ+ issues, but notably Gender issues, and if they fail, will they be sacked? And as a consequence, a) would this be legal? and b) who replaces them?
It is one thing to have a grievance, another to remedy it. It might appear easier with single issues like Abortion and Voting, but in the Academy, the breadth of knowledge and debate is surely too wide, and diverse to be reduced to the status of 'the Enemy' -for surely the only sure remedy is to shut the Universities down? And if it is the belief that children in schools and young people in universities are being indoctrinated, then the curriculum must conform to whatever JD Vance says is the truth, and teachers be forced to teach it- this would be State Indoctrination more transparent than what Vance says is happening now, and in academic terms, a rejection of freedom of thought and expression.
The man who claims to believe in Freedom, wants to Dictate to your children what they shall read and learn. That way Perdition lies, and liberty crushed by a plastic boot.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
For a guy who cannot even master the simplest subject, Trump seems to tap into the Republican zeitgeist and pick up themes and grievances very easily. Sometimes they are grievances he shares but there's something very predatory about the way he exploits other people's grievances.
It's uncanny how Trump has spawned a political movement and hijacked a major political party without any coherent ideas, just egotism and a bunch of prejudices. His record in office was just a bunch of gestures, with no coherent program and no understanding of how to achieve change, but this has not fazed his fans. A bunch of disparate people seem to have latched onto him as a useful vehicle because of his ability to appeal to peoples' grievances and his willingness to ignore any rules.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
broncofan
I think the rational Republicans who still vote Trump are only rational in the sense that they themselves observe norms and can rationally explain why they support conservative policies. But I think they are irrational in their beliefs about what liberals want. They think liberals want to reward people who aren't working instead of providing a social safety net. But as you say, the biggest problem is their priorities. They regard policies they disagree with, like comprehensive healthcare or student debt relief, as being worse than a President who says dangerous and false things that get people killed or who completely corrupts every branch of federal government.
I think it's a way of resolving cognitive dissonance. In order to rationalise standing with extremists who are willing to blow up the system, they have to convince themselves that the other side poses a bigger threat. You will recall that our old sparring partner liked to invoke the BLM protests to minimise the January 6 insurrection.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Last night on ITV there was a documentary: America: the War Within, in which US correspondent Robert Moore talked to Republican Rusty Bowers in Arizona -exiled in his own State, the target of filthy and threatening abuse-, and then Mark Finchem, who denies Biden won the election but cannot cite real proof the election in Arizona was rigged. The mind-set here, and in Tennessee where he interviewed 'Pastor' Greg Locke, is one in which the American system of democracy has become either irrelevant, or an existential threat to their way of life. There is also footage of Lauren Boebert telling people to be happy they are living in the 'End Times' and will see the Second Coming of Jesus. What these people have to do with Christianity I don't know, it is not what I learned when I was growing up. No Love, no compassion or forgiveness, but lots of Rage, Threats and images of extinction.
But, on the other hand, they represent a minority of Americans, so the question is how does this 'other America' assert itself, and what will happen if, having captured key offices in the State, Republicans challenge every vote, in effect saying 'we will get this right until it is the outcome we want' -? It represents a fracture that might not be healed, but should we at least feel confident that more Americans want to maintain their Liberal Democracy than want to replace it with a race-based 'Christian Nationalism'?
The link is here, not sure if it works outside the UK.
America: The War Within - America: The War Within - ITV Hub
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
I doubt that many of these people believe genuinely that the last election was rigged, though many of their idiot supporters might. It seems to be a veneer covering their true belief that the other side cannot be a legitimate government because they are "un-American".
The Supreme Court is currently hearing a case on the "independent state legislature" doctrine. If endorsed, this could pave the way for Republican-controlled state legislatures to simply ignore the vote in Presidential elections and choose their own electoral college delegates. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/p...ump/index.html
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-wo...eory-explained
I recall there was talk of trying to pass a minimal electoral reform bill to ensure that states followed the result of the vote. I assume this hasn't happened.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
All good points, filghy2. The question must be whether or not the Confederate States have passed a point of No Return. If State's Rights becomes State Power, and then State Autonomy, what can the Federal Govt to impose its will or even the rule of law on an entire State? The only real mechanism here is in the Republican Party 'taking back control' from the Trumpits, but as Americans have seen Kevin McCarthy and Mitchell McConnell enable Trump and his supporters, I fear there may be no way back, that the Party has given up on America, its Constitution and the Rule of Law. What they want in its place could well lead to emigration by Democrats and those opposed to Christian Nationalism, and immigration by those who do. It means people leaving Idaho for Illinois and its reverse. It is in a way rather like the UK leaving the EU, only the Republicans have to decide if they are going to create their own currency, impose border controls, and in effect take their 'Autonomy' to the next level.
I think it was assumed Trump was an aberration, a blip, a temporary setback. It may yet be, but the future is both orange and not bright.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Would the right be satisfied with imposing their will on red and purple states, though? That has not been the case on abortion. It's not in the nature of authoritarian zealots to live and let live.
Intellectual consistency does not seem to matter. The party that has previously defended the right of corporations to do as they wish is now willing to use the power of the state to punish corporations that do things the right don't like. I think states rights are also a one way street for them. If they control the federal government they will try to use federal power against Democrat states.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Would the right be satisfied with imposing their will on red and purple states, though? That has not been the case on abortion. It's not in the nature of authoritarian zealots to live and let live.
Intellectual consistency does not seem to matter. The party that has previously defended the right of corporations to do as they wish is now willing to use the power of the state to punish corporations that do things the right don't like. I think states rights are also a one way street for them. If they control the federal government they will try to use federal power against Democrat states.
Indeed, for the contradiction lies in the State's Right's argument -if 'the Feds' are no longer relevant, why bother going to Congress or seeking the Presidency? In Trump's case, the Presidency is all about his ego and the opportunity to make money, so that could happen and not affect the break-up of the Union. But for the others it makes no sense, just as Randal Paul claims to be a Libertarian who wants to get Govt out of people's lives, but sits in Congress which is one of the three branches of... Government...
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
So now it seems real power is local power, and the Sheriff is the ultimate authority. Scary.
"The "constitutional sheriffs" movement, which has ties to the Oath Keepers and other antigovernment fringe movements, is based on the legally dubious belief that sheriffs are the ultimate law enforcement authority within their counties, superseding state and federal officials, including the U.S. president. In recent years, self-appointed constitutional sheriffs have refused to enforce various laws that they deem unconstitutional, from state and federal gun laws to pandemic-era mask mandates."
‘Constitutional’ sheriffs movement urges law enforcement to intervene in election process (yahoo.com)
See also
Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association - Wikipedia
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
Completely agree it is scary.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
I don't think we will truly no the answer to this question for awhile:
Yahoo News
Dems meddled in GOP primaries. Was it worth it?
http://www.yahoo.com/news/dems-meddl...163254803.html
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
How do you read the campaigns in New York? The impression I get from the UK press is that the Democrats don't appear to be good at it, or, some candidates might be, but others seem ineffective in projecting themselves and their party. It may be that in the UK we are being 'set up' for a Republican take-over of the House, not sure about the Senate, or it may be the press can't get a handle on what is actually happening, and that a surprise might be coming.
I know it's not New York, but I saw a report about a woman called Kari Lake and I can't believe someone so aggressive and foul-mouthed is allowed to run. It is the way she gestured toward the Media pool during a rally speech and referred to the media as 'Bastards', not the kind of language one expects from someone seeking high office. I guess that is the measure of how low the bar is set these days.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Thanks for the link, Fitzcarraldo, though its contents may not surprise.
I admit to being ambivalent about 'mail-in' ballots in the UK (we call them 'Postal Votes') but the evidence in the US does suggest that it increases voter participation, and is now the only means to vote in five states.
I understand too, that whereas there is an argument that Democrat supporting voters are more likely to use Mail-in Ballots- which may be why Republicans are targetting Mail-in Ballots to reject, in Texas in 2016, it was mostly Republican Party voters who did so.
But it must be true that Republicans also use Mail-in Ballots outside those five states, so the Pennsylvania decision today could just as easily impact Republican votes as Democrats. More clarification on this would be welcome.
Benefits of Mail-in Voting - ElectionBuddy
Texas Democrats were more likely to mail-in vote than Republicans in 2020 election | The Texas Tribune
US midterms: Pennsylvania court rules to discount some mail-in ballots - BBC News
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
I understand too, that whereas there is an argument that Democrat supporting voters are more likely to use Mail-in Ballots- which may be why Republicans are targetting Mail-in Ballots to reject, in Texas in 2016, it was mostly Republican Party voters who did so.
But it must be true that Republicans also use Mail-in Ballots outside those five states, so the Pennsylvania decision today could just as easily impact Republican votes as Democrats. More clarification on this would be welcome.
Prior to the 2020 election and Trump's denigration of the process, traditionally Republicans voted by mail (including Trump himself) far more than Democrats did. But in addition to attacking voting by mail for its fraud potential, Trump also installed Louis DeJoy as postmaster general, and sabotaged the postal service itself by cutting service and getting rid of sorting machines.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
The only reason they set out to denigrate mail-in votes in 2020 was that they knew Democrats would be more likely to use them because they were more concerned about Covid. It will be interesting to see whether this becomes a lasting imbalance due to Republican voters being turned off of mail voting by false claims. It will suit the election deniers' agenda if there is a late surge in Democrat votes from this source, which they can claim is suspicious.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
The only reason they set out to denigrate mail-in votes in 2020 was that they knew Democrats would be more likely to use them because they were more concerned about Covid. It will be interesting to see whether this becomes a lasting imbalance due to Republican voters being turned off of mail voting by false claims. It will suit the election deniers' agenda if there is a late surge in Democrat votes from this source, which they can claim is suspicious.
The Republicans have made it more difficult to vote by mail. They've also removed lots of drop boxes (mostly from areas that tend to vote heavily Democratic). I always vote in person, but I try to vote early.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fitzcarraldo
The Republicans have made it more difficult to vote by mail. They've also removed lots of drop boxes (mostly from areas that tend to vote heavily Democratic). I always vote in person, but I try to vote early.
How easy is it to vote early in person in the US? In Australia we now have more than 40% of the votes being cast before election day. I've never made a postal vote because it's much easier to go to one of the early voting stations.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
How easy is it to vote early in person in the US? In Australia we now have more than 40% of the votes being cast before election day. I've never made a postal vote because it's much easier to go to one of the early voting stations.
It varies, but it's very easy for me. There's an early voting site that's less than a 10-minute walk from my house. They're open 7 days a week for a couple weeks prior to election day. Early voting laws vary by state.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
This link to Kari Lake points out how she has flipped from being a Democrat to a Republican, from calling for an amnesty for undocumented migrants to the 'Race Replacement theory', from attending the performances of her Drag Queen friend, to endorsing the ads from a 'Pastor' who vilifies Drag Queens as a 'threat to children'. Ironically, also this -for someone who used to read the news on Fox News in Arizona -
"“I found myself reading news copy that I didn’t believe was fully truthful,” she said in March 2021, announcing that she was quitting. “I’ve decided the time is right to do something else.”
-- like telling lies?
But perhaps the key is that her Democrat challenger, Katie Hobbs, seems to be so ineffective, lacking the aggression and brazen lies that Lake tells. One wonders how anyone can fall for this stuff, but there again, one wonders why the Democrats have not been able to demolish their Republican opponents with the Truth.
‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga Republicanism | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
This link to Kari Lake points out how she has flipped from being a Democrat to a Republican, from calling for an amnesty for undocumented migrants to the 'Race Replacement theory', from attending the performances of her Drag Queen friend, to endorsing the ads from a 'Pastor' who vilifies Drag Queens as a 'threat to children'. Ironically, also this -for someone who used to read the news on Fox News in Arizona -
"“I found myself reading news copy that I didn’t believe was fully truthful,” she said in March 2021, announcing that she was quitting. “I’ve decided the time is right to do something else.”
-- like telling lies?
But perhaps the key is that her Democrat challenger, Katie Hobbs, seems to be so ineffective, lacking the aggression and brazen lies that Lake tells. One wonders how anyone can fall for this stuff, but there again, one wonders why the Democrats have not been able to demolish their Republican opponents with the Truth.
‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga Republicanism | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian
I think it because the Democrats are afraid to fight dirty,and don't want to stoop to their Republican Opponents level,The MAGA Party doesn't have a problem fighting dirty and using underhanded tactics to trash their Democratic Opponents. And agree Kari Lake is a dangerous candidate. And the 2022 US Midterms is in five days,where the MAGA Party will be making false claims about election fraud.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
One wonders how anyone can fall for this stuff, but there again, one wonders why the Democrats have not been able to demolish their Republican opponents with the Truth
Why would you expect truth to prevail over lies when it so often hasn't over the past 7 years or so? Republican voters no longer care about what is true; only what it suits their purposes to believe.
Most swinging voters focus on their own circumstances, without much consideration of causes or policy solutions. Unfortunately, Democrat rule coincided with an upsurge in global inflation, which has made it very hard to prevent the normal mid-term backlash.
Ordinarily, there would be a good chance the pendulum will swing back, as occured in the 1990s, given the likely Republican congress has no plan other than maximizing chaos. The big question is whether this will be allowed to happen.
WB Yeats summed it up well in his famous poem:
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Ordinarily, there would be a good chance the pendulum will swing back, as occured in the 1990s, given the likely Republican congress has no plan other than maximizing chaos. The big question is whether this will be allowed to happen.
This is the big concern, as a candidate in Wisconsin said if they win, there will be a permanent Republican Congress in the State making the Governor a political irrelevance.
On the other hand, if Republican voters who are conflicted over Abortion rights and the economy -and other than inflation the US economy is in better shape than the UK- and if more young voters turn out than expected, the results could prove pollsters predicting a Republican surge are wrong. I think turn out has been high, but also that this may make the results close, and this is where challenges to the result could mean we don't know the final tally for some weeks after election day.
The electoral process in the US may be in need of an overhaul, but the last people given the task should be a partisan party which these days seems to sneer at and dismiss democracy if the result doesn't go their way.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stavros
How do you read the campaigns in New York? The impression I get from the UK press is that the Democrats don't appear to be good at it, or, some candidates might be, but others seem ineffective in projecting themselves and their party. It may be that in the UK we are being 'set up' for a Republican take-over of the House, not sure about the Senate, or it may be the press can't get a handle on what is actually happening, and that a surprise might be coming.
I know it's not New York, but I saw a report about a woman called Kari Lake and I can't believe someone so aggressive and foul-mouthed is allowed to run. It is the way she gestured toward the Media pool during a rally speech and referred to the media as 'Bastards', not the kind of language one expects from someone seeking high office. I guess that is the measure of how low the bar is set these days.
The only race that I have been really paying attention to here in New York State is the one for Governor. Back in the summer, Governor Hochul (D) had a double digit lead over her opponent, Lee Zeldin (R).
Now:
Why a Pro-Trump Conservative Might Win the New York Governor’s Race
http://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/op...-governor.html
Why NYC Democrats are supporting Republican Lee Zeldin for governor
//nypost.com/2022/10/31/why-nyc-democrats-are-backing-republican-lee-zeldin-for-governor/
I think Hochul falls into the category of the Democrat that doesn't seem to be good at it. I also get the feeling that she thought could do the bare minimum when it came to campaigning and cruise to an easy victory. But I don't think she realized until it was too late how fed up people are with the direction NYC and the overall state is going in.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
How easy is it to vote early in person in the US? In Australia we now have more than 40% of the votes being cast before election day. I've never made a postal vote because it's much easier to go to one of the early voting stations.
Apparently pretty easy.
Early Vote Totals Point Toward Record-Breaking Turnout for Midterm Elections
www.usnews.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/early-vote-totals-point-toward-record-breaking-turnout-for-midterm-elections
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
The question I was getting at is why do people bother with mail-in voting if early in-person voting is easy. According to that article, 57% of early votes have been by mail, so it's not just people who can't get to a voting place. (In Australia, only about one-fifth of early votes are by mail these days.) It sounds like there is a greater risk that mail-in votes may not be counted; eg because the post was slow or the date stamp was unclear.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
blackchubby38
I think Hochul falls into the category of the Democrat that doesn't seem to be good at it.
Why do they seem to have trouble finding effective candidates? Where are the future FDRs going to come from, or even just the Bill Clintons or Obamas? It was hardly a good sign that they had to turn to a man who has clearly past his best in 2020, and it'll be even worse next time.
One of the big problems with politics these days is that good people don't want to go into it because it's such an unpleasant business. As a result, we are left mostly with careerist hacks, egomaniacs and zealots.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
The question I was getting at is why do people bother with mail-in voting if early in-person voting is easy. According to that article, 57% of early votes have been by mail, so it's not just people who can't get to a voting place. (In Australia, only about one-fifth of early votes are by mail these days.) It sounds like there is a greater risk that mail-in votes may not be counted; eg because the post was slow or the date stamp was unclear.
Because mail-in voting is even easier than early in-person voting. You don't have to leave home. Never underestimate the power of laziness.
-
Re: The US Mid-Term Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by
filghy2
Why do they seem to have trouble finding effective candidates? Where are the future FDRs going to come from, or even just the Bill Clintons or Obamas? It was hardly a good sign that they had to turn to a man who has clearly past his best in 2020, and it'll be even worse next time.
One of the big problems with politics these days is that good people don't want to go into it because it's such an unpleasant business. As a result, we are left mostly with careerist hacks, egomaniacs and zealots.
Biden was the right candidate to beat Trump. He is absolutely a centrist (no matter what the Republicans claim). He didn't alienate nonpartisan moderates, which make up the deciding portion of voters. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders were too far left and too obnoxious to court anyone but the left.
