There are some key questions to which we do not yet have an answer.
Will the ferocious rhetoric of his campaign translate into actual policy when Trump becomes President in 2025?
A lot may depend on the team he assembles to draft his policies, and the relationship he has with Congress in order to implement it, and respond to the laws that they pass.
Re the Supreme Court -are any of the current Justices going to retire? Even if Alito and Thomas did so, they would surely be replaced by two more Justices nominated by the Federalist Society and congenial to Trump and his supporters.
Re the Economy: Trump inherits an economy stronger and more vibrant than it has been for decades, though he is not the kind of man to give thanks to the Biden Administration that delivered it. Thus
"President-elect Donald Trump is poised to inherit a remarkably healthy economy when he takes office in January. By almost all measures, the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well. Gross domestic product was up an annual 2.8% last quarter, inflation is just about down to the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% and unemployment is low by historic standards".
Trump inherits a sturdy economy
The key unknown here concerns Tariffs and Taxes, and how far Trump is willing to sacrifice all the benefits he inherits from Biden for some ideological obsession, given that his previous diet of Tariffs did not produce the outcomes he said they would-
"The results of those policies fell far short of the Trump administration’s goals of eliminating the trade deficit, stimulating economic growth, and narrowing the budget deficit. Indeed, during the Trump presidency, the trade deficit in goods widened by some 20 percent to reach over $900 billion in 2020. Meanwhile, even before the 2020 Covid-induced recession, economic growth under the Trump presidency was little different from that of the Obama administration, while the budget deficit steadily increased before blowing out to 13.3 percent of GDP in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic.".
Will Donald Trump Trigger a Debt and Dollar Crisis? | The National Interest
And this in turn could create huge problems in the management of the Debt, and undermine further Trump's promises
"One of the major drawbacks of massive resort to tariffs is that they will substantially raise import prices. That will hit the common man hard in the pocket and will add to inflation. According to the Peterson Institute of International Economics, Mr. Trump’s tariff proposal will cost a typical US household in the middle-income distribution around $2,600 a year.
Another major drawback of an “America First” program is that it could tip an already weak Chinese and European economy into recession. It could also invite trade policy retaliation by China and Europe in the form of higher tariffs on American imports. That, in turn, could take us down the economically destructive beggar-thy-neighbor policies of the 1930s.
As if all of this were not enough reason for concern about our economic outlook, Mr. Trump has promised to deport up to 11 million undocumented immigrants. If such a program were implemented, it would almost certainly put upward pressure on food prices and cause production disruptions in those industries employing large numbers of immigrant workers.
The best we can hope for economically in a second Trump administration is that Mr. Trump walks back many of the economic proposals he made on the campaign trail. If not, we should brace ourselves for the eventual return of the bond vigilantes, a flight from the US dollar, and some very rough economic sledding ahead.".
Donald Trump: A Threat to the U.S. Economy? | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
The man is on fire, but when the reckoning comes, will it all have turned out to be smoke and mirrors?
