Over a Barrel: US Saudi Relations Get Slippery

The Russian attempt to annex the Ukraine mired in the current war, has strained relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. In the first place, Saudi Arabia's de facto King, Mohammed bin Salman, has not had warm relations with President Biden, compared to the money-soaked love-in he had with Trump. Moreover, because Biden felt he had to reach out to Saudi Arabia, even if only with a fist-pump, he felt deceived by MbS over the oil price, and it would anyway be characteristic of MbS to take the piss out of someone he probably regards as a 'here-today, gone-tomorrow' politician, whereas barring assassination or a heart attack MbS is in his job for life.

Right now, the key concern is that Saudi Arabia is seen by the US as too close to Putin, both in terms of his personal relationship with MbS (mutual visits to each other's countries in recent years), and critically, the fear in DC that US arms and technology sold to Saudi Arabia could end up on the battlefields of Ukraine.

But because it is a swing producer with such a big influence on the price of oil, at a time of rising inflation and threats of recession, the US has to find a way of not alienating Saudi Arabia, while the latter swaggers around as usual, throwing money at everyone to buy their complicity in the Kingdom's regional ambitions, as well as its 'Chinese-Style' infiltration of sports and business around the world- not 'belt and road' more like (golf) club and saw.

Saudi has the US over a barrel. Should the US make a significant change to its policy and either stop, or significantly reduce its arms sales to the Kingdom? The US has failed so far to find a way to bring Iran back to the negotiating table and revive the nuclear deal signed when Obama was President, and it is known that Russia fears Iran making friends with the West more than it does Iran's attempt to influence politics in Central Asia, and with an incipient crisis in Iran, the prospects of change there do at least concern Russia, though it remains to be seen if the current protests make any difference to the leadership there. Choosing between Iran and Saudi Arabia doesn't look good for Iran.

Putin has thus provoked a revision of thinking about the strategic benefits of the US-Saudi relationship while confirming what was proven in Syria, that MbS has done in Yemen and Putin in Ukraine -mass murder is an acceptable means to an end, whatever the end is -but is the US going to continue being held over a barrel by violent, despotic regimes just because as Trump might say, the US view is 'take the money'?

Some interesting links here-
Senator raises alarm Saudis could share US defense technology with Russia | Saudi Arabia | The Guardian

The top 11 favors the Trump administration has done for Saudi Arabia (nbcnews.com)

What the Russian War in Ukraine Means for the Middle East - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace