Mexico could return old ruling party to power

[Dino Velvet]

http://news.yahoo.com/mexico-could-return-old-ruling-party-power-054023267.html

Mexico could return old ruling party to power

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/oXh_6AJBHy_uEbdrklkymA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O2g9Mjg-/http://l.yimg.com/os/152/2012/04/21/image001-png_162613.png (http://www.ap.org/)By E. EDUARDO CASTILLO and MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN | Associated Press – 1 hr 49 mins ago


MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico's voters appeared poised to bring the old guard back to power on Sunday, a dozen years after the former ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party lost the presidential seat it held for more than seven decades in a contest that proved the country was finally a democracy.
The party known as the PRI, led by telegenic former Mexico State Gov. Enrique Pena Nieto, has held a strong lead throughout the campaign, and also appears likely to retake at least a plurality in the two houses of Congress.
The party has been bolstered by voter fatigue with a sluggish economy and the sharp escalation of a drug war that has killed roughly 50,000 Mexicans over the past six years. The desire for change suddenly works to benefit the PRI, which ran Mexico from 1929 to 2000.
Hoping for an upset are leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose narrow loss in Mexico's last election led to charges of voter fraud and weeks of massive protests, and the candidate of the ruling National Action Party, Josefina Vazquez Mota, the first woman ever nominated for the presidency by a major party in Mexico.
It would be a once-unthinkable comeback for the PRI, which many believed was doomed after its 2000 loss and which was still reeling in the last presidential election, when it finished a weak third.
Pena Nieto has cast himself as a pragmatic economic moderate in the tradition of the last three PRI presidents. He has called for greater private investment in Mexico's state-controlled oil industry, and has said he will try to reduce violence by attacking crimes that hurt ordinary citizens while deemphasizing the pursuit of drug kingpins.
All of the parties are accusing rivals of emulating the traditional PRI tactic of offering voters money, food or benefits in return for votes. Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party says Pena Nieto's campaign has handed supporters prepaid money cards worth nearly $5.2 million (71 million pesos).
"Where do they get so many resources to conduct the PRI campaign, so many billboards?" asked voter Marilu Carrasco, a 57-year-old actress who was lined up to cast her vote for Lopez Obrador in southern Mexico City's Copilco neighborhood. The PRI's return to the presidency "could be the worst thing that could happen to us," Carrasco said.
PRI activists, meanwhile, have published photographs of truckloads of handouts they say were given out by Democratic Revolution backers.
At some of the special polling stations set up in Mexico City for voters to cast ballots away from their hometowns, people complained that the limited number of ballots allotted had run out just a few hours after the station opened. "It's absurd that you stand in line for hours and when you get to the front there are no ballots," said 22-year-old medical student Perla Hernandez.
But electoral officials have repeatedly insisted that outright fraud is almost impossible under the country's elaborate, costly electoral machinery.
The government also promises efforts to avoid outbursts of violence linked to the country's endemic drug gang violence. The army stepped up election day patrols in the border city of Nuevo Laredo, where a bomb in a pickup truck exploded outside city hall on Friday.
Interior Secretary Alejandro Poire said that across the country federal security forces were working closely with local and state authorities, as well as electoral officials, to guard the peace during the vote. He said he was aware of "some isolated incidents," but declined to provide details. "I don't want to give importance to any in particular."
"We have a very broad deployment by all of the federal forces: the Mexican army, the navy and the federal police," Poire added. "Everyone is ready to attend to any incidents that may occur."
The 45-year-old Pena Nieto, who is married to a soap opera star, also has been dogged by allegations that he overspent his $330 million campaign funding limit and has received favorable coverage from Mexico's television giant, Televisa.
University students launched a series of anti-Pena Nieto marches in the final weeks of the campaign, arguing that his party hasn't changed since its days in power.
Pena Nieto says his party has abandoned the heavy-handed ways of the past and will govern in an open and pluralistic manner, and many say the PRI would not be able to reimpose its once near-total control even if it wanted to because of changes in society, the judiciary and Congress.
"The context has changed dramatically," said Rodrigo Salazar, a professor at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Mexico City. "Society isn't the same. It's a very critical society, a very demanding society, with a strong division of powers."
The final pre-election polls on Wednesday, the last day they could legally be published, showed Pena Nieto with a lead ranging from 8 to 17 percentage points.
Mario Garcia, a 21-year-old criminal justice student, lined up to vote in the city of Atlacomulco at the same polling station where Pena Nieto was casting his ballot. "Ask anyone here and they will tell you they are going to vote for Pena Nieto. We are all of the PRI," Garcia said.
Several voters complained that the polling station opened 51 minutes late, and said election officials there were disorganized.
"They are still rubbing the sleep out of their eyes," said Maria Guadalupe Monroy. "Just imagine if Pena Nieto had voted at 8 in the morning (when the polls were scheduled to open). What would they have done?"
Lopez Obrador, 58, was a center-leftist as Mexico City mayor and pioneered some programs that Pena Nieto emulated in the neighboring State of Mexico, such as local pensions for the elderly. But he alienated many voters with his refusal to recognize the narrow victory of National Action's Felipe Calderon in 2006, declaring himself "legitimate president" and mounting protests that gridlocked much of the capital for weeks.
He remained confident Sunday. "We are going to win the election," Lopez Obrador said before voting in southern Mexico City. "Tonight, there will be a national civic celebration."
"Mexico is no longer for moving backward," he said. "People want a real change."
Lopez Obrador says he wants to keep state control over the national oil company, make Mexico self-sufficient in energy and food production, and fund new social spending and jobs programs by cutting waste and corruption, not by raising taxes.
Vazquez Mota, 51, is a former secretary of education and social development in the conservative administrations of President Vicente Fox and his successor, Calderon. She campaigned on the slogan, "different," but has struggled to distinguish herself from Calderon while maintaining the support of the party's power structure.
She has pledged to continue Calderon's war on drug cartels, increase penalties for public corruption and ease rules on hiring and firing employees in order to spur economic growth. On the last day of campaigning, she even promised to make Calderon her attorney-general if elected.
"Now it's the citizens' decision," Vazquez Mota said as she walked into a Mexico City polling station to cast her vote, accompanied by her husband and their three daughters. She hugged and kissed several children gathered at the polling station before being whisked away in an SUV.
Angel Guzman, a 49-year-old businessman, said he was voting for Vazquez Mota because he thought the PAN could better manage the economy. "I'm afraid that business will be derailed, that there will be an economic crisis, devaluations" if the PRI wins," Guzman said at the same polling place where his candidate voted.
The latest polls showed Pena Nieto favored by 32.2 percent to 41.2 percent of voters, in polls with margins of error ranging from 2.5 to 3 percent.
Lopez Obrador had support ranging from 23.8 to 25.4 percent. Josefina Vazquez Mota had 18.8 to 20.8 percent.
Also running is Gabriel Quadri de la Torre, 57, the candidate of the New Alliance Party, which has links to the powerful teacher's union. His poll support remains in the low single digits.
Mexicans are also electing 500 members of the lower house of Congress and 128 senators.
Voters will also select Mexico City's mayor and governors in the states of Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Tabasco and Yucatan. The president is elected for a single six-year term and cannot stand for re-election.
___
Associated Press writers Mark Stevenson, Adriana Gomez Licon, and Carlos Rodriguez contributed to this report from Mexico City, and Gloria Perez from Atlacomulco, Mexico.





http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/2iw7bje7JWcjP4ad74bOwQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD00NTc7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ap_webfeeds/d048912c6c1e2212140f6a706700d3a6.jpg
Enrique Pena Nieto, top, presidential candidate for the Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) waves to supporters after casting his vote during general elections at a polling station in Atlacomulco, Mexico, Sunday, July 1, 2012. Mexico's more than 79 million voters head to the polls Sunday to elect a president, who serves one six-year term, as well as 500 congressional deputies and 128 senators. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)

[fred41]

from an anecdotal point of view: almost none of my friends from Mexico (here in N.Y.)...wanted Pena Nieto to win.

[Stavros]

Below there is an interesting and positive view of the Mexican economy from the Financial Times.

In addition, there is a thesis on Mexican politics which argues that the long reign of the PRI in effect created a monopoly that was able to co-opt Drug Trafficiking Organisations [DTO] into the 'system', which was corrupt -the point being that as long as the cartels behaved and paid up they could operate within certain limits. In addition, the 'system' gave enormous powers to the President -whereas since 2000 the reaction has been to limit the powers of the excecutive which, paradoxically has meant the government is now weaker than when the PRI was in power.

The problem with the DTO's is that the spectacular increase in demand for drugs in the US in the 1980s and the war against the Colombians shifted the entrepot from the Gulf to the US-Mexican border, granting the cartels more money and power than they had known before, and therefore more money to buy soldiers, policemen and politicians -thus, when there was a change in 2000, the DTO's became more powerful than the government, and the resulting war has failed to undermine them, even if the overall trade in narcotics has slowed, increasing inter-cartel violence as they fight for a larger share of diminishing product...

The thesis is here:
https://beardocs.baylor.edu:8443/xmlui/handle/2104/8378

Here is the FT article:

[/URL]
April 12, 2012 7:15 pm
Mexico steps out of Brazil’s shadow

By John Paul Rathbone


I once asked Carlos Slim (http://www.ft.com/servicestools/help/terms) why Mexicans were so down about their country and Brazilians so euphoric about theirs. The world’s richest man, whose biggest investments span both countries, replied: “It’s simple. They are Brazilians. We are Mexicans.”
It was a perceptive comment. Many Mexicans feel depressed about their country, and the world has shared their gloom. Meanwhile, the confidence of Brazil’s boom – on show during President Dilma Rousseff’s visit to Washington (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4e942712-826a-11e1-9242-00144feab49a.html) this week – has gripped the popular imagination. The latest manifestation is the imminent $20bn stock market listing of BTG Pactual (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d78ce532-7fda-11e1-92d3-00144feab49a.html), the Brazilian investment bank that wants to be, of all things, a “tropical Goldman Sachs”. That alone should make one look again – especially as national moods were so different 10 years ago.

Back then, there was a lively debate over who was Latin America’s true economic leader. To many Mexicans, the answer was obvious. The country had just completed a transition to democracy. Its economy was bigger than Brazil’s. It even had a robust banking system. Brazil, meanwhile, was just emerging from a currency crisis, and investors were terrified that it was about to elect a dangerous leftwinger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
How quickly the tables turned. Brazil became one of the much-vaunted “Bric” nations, ranking only behind China among them. Mexico was left behind (http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/03/29/video-mexicos-missed-opportunities/#axzz1rsDSEoWr), its economy now half the size of Brazil’s $2.6tn monster. What happened?
The answer, mostly, is China. Its entry to the World Trade Organisation undercut Mexican manufacturers, which lost business to rivals with far lower costs. Political leadership was also weak. Mexico’s domestic economy remains stifled by monopolies – especially state-owned oil company Pemex. The national mood has been further soured by a war on organised crime that has killed 50,000 over six years.
By contrast, Brazil has gone from strength to strength. Its economy has benefited from voracious demand for commodities from China, its largest trade partner. Mr Lula da Silva was far from being the bogeyman many feared. Brazil also tackled oligopolies in its domestic market better than Mexico and set free its state-owned oil champion, Petrobras, allowing it to list and partner with foreign companies to explore huge oil reserves. While Mexico’s biggest trade partner, the US, lurched from dotcom crisis to subprime bust, Brazil enjoyed a lucrative run. It really did seem to be “o melhor país do mundo”, the best in the world. It was certainly one of the luckiest.
Now that luck may be changing. For the first time in a decade there are good reasons to be less bullish about China – and thus Brazil. There are also good reasons to be more bullish about the US – and thus Mexico. China has lost competitiveness because of rising wage and transport costs. North American corporate supply chains are already shortening. If the US economy recovers, Mexican manufacturers should do well.
Mexico has also become a global car producer. The industry generated $23bn of exports last year – more than oil or tourism. Nor are these cheapo maquiladora operations: Volkswagen and Nissan use Mexico’s web of trade agreements to export their cars to the whole world. As for Mexico’s “drugs war”, the once dizzying increase of violence has slowed and in some areas fallen. Why is not clear, but a 74 per cent increase in federal security spending will eventually make a difference, anywhere.
Brazil, however, has hit a speed bump. It can no longer count on commodity prices rising forever. More crucially, the country has developed a serious costs problem. Even in local currency terms – which strip out the effects of money printing in the west, the so-called “currency wars” – Brazilian labour costs have risen a quarter in real terms over the past decade. This has threatened domestic manufacturers and caused an unseemly protectionist trade spat with Mexico, so setting back regional integration. Brazilians may have an innate optimism, as Mr Slim said. But all this left Brazil looking fearful and Mexico rather confident.
This partial reversal of relative fortunes has somewhat dulled Brazil’s gloss. Envious Mexican officials no longer wince at the mention of the B-word as they once did. Still, Brazil offers at least one significant lesson. Over the past 17 years, it has enjoyed a charmed run of remarkable presidents, beginning with Fernando Henrique Cardoso. By contrast, the last Mexican president to show genuine leadership was Carlos Salinas – and his term ended controversially in 1994. It may be too much to hope that Enrique Peña Nieto (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d86e9004-7cb5-11e1-9d8f-00144feab49a.html), the telegenic 45-year-old candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI), will provide Brazilian-style strategic vision should he win the July 1 election, as polls suggest he will. True, Mr Peña has said he will open Pemex to foreign capital and the economy to more competition. But the PRI has also spent 12 years in opposition squashing similar initiatives, so there are legitimate doubts.
Nonetheless, momentum for reform is building. Last year Mexico’s economy grew faster than Brazil’s. And only 12 years have passed since the end of Mexican one-party rule, while Brazil is in its third decade of democracy. Mexican politics could yet turn good. It is early days still.
Brazil’s size means it is unlikely ever to cede Latin America’s top slot again. Still, if you take the long view, Mexico’s prospects may be far rosier than many believe – including those morose Mexicans that Mr Slim described.
The writer is the FT’s Latin America editor

[url]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7474720-83c7-11e1-82ca-00144feab49a.html#axzz1zZD8p7s3

[Ben]

Fraud In Mexican Elections? - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VXtZ5xBmbc&feature=plcp)

[Ben]

Tuesday, July 3, 2012 by The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/opinion/for-mexicans-it-was-the-economy-stupid.html)

As Latin American Has Surged Left, Mexico Remains Stagnant Off to the Right

by Mark Weisbrot (http://www.commondreams.org/mark-weisbrot)

If ever there were an election preordained as a result of economic performance, it would be Mexico’s election on Sunday. The ruling National Action Party, or PAN, was destined to lose because it had presided over profound economic failure for 11 years. Almost any government in world would have lost under such circumstances.
Commentators, focused on the six-year-old drug war, have largely neglected to note the depth of Mexico’s economic problems. Let’s start with the basics: Since 2000, when the PAN was first elected, income per person in Mexico has grown by just 0.9 percent annually. This is terrible for a developing country, and less than half the rate of growth of the Latin American region during this period — which was itself not stellar. If we just look at per capita growth since the last election, in 2006, Mexico finishes dead last of all the countries in Latin America.
Between 1980 and 2000, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, lost control of Mexico for the first time in more than 70 years, the country saw a precipitous drop in economic growth. Before the 1980s, Mexico was growing at a rate that would have lifted the country to European living standards, had it continued.
It is not fashionable among observers, in the United States or Mexico, to mention that Mexico’s economy has performed abysmally for more than 30 years. Starting with the recession and Latin American debt crisis in the early 1980s, the PRI shifted toward what economists call “neoliberalism”: abandoning state-led industrial and development policies, tightening monetary and fiscal policies and liberalizing foreign investment and trade. The North American Free Trade Agreement, which took effect in 1994, was only the most visible example of this transformation.
Of course, not all of these policies were mistaken, but the overall result was an unqualified failure. The same thing happened across Latin America from 1980 to 2000, where gross domestic product, per capita, grew by 6 percent, as compared with 92 percent over the prior two decades.
The vast majority of the region responded to the long-term economic failure of the 1980s and 1990s — the worst such performance in more than a century — by electing left-wing governments: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Nicaragua, El Salvador and others. These candidates and parties ran explicitly against what they called “neoliberalism.” Why then did Mexico move to the right?
Part of the answer may be found in Mexico’s electoral institutions, and especially the ownership of the news media. In 1988, the PRI candidate, Carlos Salinas, was declared the winner over a leftist candidate, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, only because of widespread electoral fraud. The 2006 election was too close to call: the PAN candidate, Felipe Calderón, who is now finishing his six-year term as president, was declared the winner by a razor-thin margin, and only after a partial recount, the results of which were never released to the public.
More important, the media, which are essentially owned by a monopoly, were found to have played a significant role in the 2006 elections, more than enough to prevent the most left-wing candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who ran again this year, from winning. With 95 percent of TV broadcasts controlled by just two media outlets with a strong and documented bias in favor of the PRI, a true left-of-center candidate has little chance.
More than half of all Mexicans are living below the official poverty line, and the new government does not look like it has much to offer the country’s poor majority. Sadly, Mexico’s economic progress will probably remain very halting until there is a more level playing field for elections.

© 2012 The New York Times

https://www.commondreams.org/sites/commondreams.org/files/imagecache/author_photo/mark_weisbrot.jpg (http://www.commondreams.org/mark-weisbrot)

Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (http://www.cepr.net) (CEPR), in Washington, DC. He is also president of Just Foreign Policy (http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/)

[Stavros]

Curious that the FT view of Mexico is more positive than Mark Weisbrot....makes you wonder if they are using the same data.

[Ben]

Another article by Mark Weisbrot:

Irregularities reveal Mexico's election far from fair:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/09/irregularities-reveal-mexico-election-far-from-fair