Should Greece leave the Euro?

[JamesHunt]

Yes, No or who gives a shit?

[Ben]

I don't live in Europe so... I mean, I, honestly, don't know enough about it. All I can say: I think every country should control their own currency.... I think the idea of a single currency was a mistake.
But it all seemed doomed from the start...

Cameron slams Euro bosses as people pull the plug - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAbZqgHSC78)

[robertlouis]

Yes, No or who gives a shit?

It's one of those subjects that's so complex you'd be best to hang on till Stavros throws in his mighty two euros, or maybe drachmas....

The Greeks are damned if they stay in and damned if they leave. It's like the old joke about the traveller in Ireland asking for directions and the local tells him that he wouldn't start from here.

[Stavros]

I don't know what it is that is so complex about this problem. The parity on a range of indicators that states who wanted to join the Euro were supposed to meet, was never met in Greece's case, but then it wasn't really met in Italy's case either. How anyone ever meets parity when Germany is the benchmark economy I don't know.

The Kohl government in Germany supported the entry of Greece, and also Italy into monetary union for political reasons, one of which was an anxiety that Germany not be seen to be the dominant power in Europe, dictating who or who could not join the EuroClub. For obvious historical reasons. Widening the membership of the club would therefore be a sign that Germany was an inclusive, welcoming partner. Italy was the largest European state with no hope of meeting the criteria for membership, not least because its domestic tax regime is known by anyone who knows Italy to be a farce.

Greece was in the same position as Italy as far as its ability to lie about its finances was concerned. The problem is that Greece lost 13% of its population during the Nazi occupation, and sought reparations from West Germany after the war which were written into various treaties in the 1950s but never paid. There is a fierce residue of bitterness in Greece about the post-war era because of Greece's own struggle with political extemism (Communism at one end, neo-fascism at the other) its lamentable history of military rule, and its inability to even conclusively define it own borders, with the 'Former Yugoslav Republic of Madeconia' being one unresolved headache. One Greek politician has even suggested re-structuring Greeke into separate states like they had when Pericles was around.

When Greece did apply to join the Euro it did so on terms that meant that whereas the Drachma had been trading at 172 to one Deutschmark before the Euro was set up, on entry the rate was 347.5 drachma for one euro. You do the maths! As part of the agreement, states joining the Euro were expected to waive any existing claims against other member states, which to some Greeks meant that their government was so desperate to join it was prepared to ditch the entire legacy of the Nazi occupation and the crisis years that followed, as part of some 'European dream'...but there's more: strictly speaking a state cannot be expelled from the monetary system but it can resign, but it then has the right to claim compensation for any damage caused during its membership. So Greece is in a position where its Government has lied to everyone about its financial health before joining the Euro, it borrowed as much as it could under the rules to buy the loyalty of Greek voters through shameless pump-priming, economic mismanagement and fantasy jobs, its debt is now something like 110% of GDP, a debt that has been spread around European banks and loaded twice over with two bail-outs, with the possibility of a third, yet it has no hope of repaying the loans over the next 100 years unless it finds several gigantic oil fields off the coast of Athens (well anywhere will do), and has therefore eroded the credit-worthiness of the banks that have leant it money it won't get back, while Greece itself could, on leaving the Euro, claim compensation for losses to its economy as a consequence of it being forced to leave the Euro!

Look on the bright side. Greece goes bankrupt, leaves the Eurozone. The New Drachma becomes the currency, the rate of exchange makes Greece a cheap place in which to re-locate business, bringing in much-needed capital to the country. It also makes Greece so attractive a place to visit and live in, that it becomes a Euro-retirement state, like Florida is in the USA.

Get in early, and you can probably buy your own Greek island at bargain-basement prices, complete with a small population of elderly men and women, an orthodox church, probably perched perilously on a hill overlooking the town, luxury accommodation, swimming pool, servants, the wine-dark oceans where Ulysses wandered, and free kebabs for life.

Well, someone has been kebabbed over this, thats for sure.

[jimbo1974]

I think the ironic thing here is : The overwhelming majority of the Greek people want to keep the Euro, such is their mistrust of their own politicians managing things

Its a total mess, no matter which scenario you look at.

The best solution, is the debts of the PIGS becomes a Euro debt, i.e Germany / France and the northern states pay it off.

[Stavros]

Are you crazy? Why should either the Germans or the French or the British pay off the loans that the Greek government took out? British banks are exposed too. At some point, like a bank that fails, Greece will go to the wall, to me it looks like even another bail-out will only buy time until the next one. You could step back and criticise the whole of the lending system in the first place, which was part of the toxic fluid that eventually contaminated so many accounts by 2008 something had to give. JP Morgan could be vulnerable. We may not be in the Euro, but the British are also paying for Greek duplicity -and we haven't even begun to consider what happens when Spain and Italy come close to the wire.

[jimbo1974]

Are you crazy?

No. Im just offering an opinion.


Why should either the Germans or the French or the British pay off the loans that the Greek government took out?.

I didnt say the British should, i said the EURO members should. In otherwords - have a fiscal Union.

Germany have profited MASSIVELY from the euro. Who built the trains in Greece ? Siemens. Who built the new airport and other infrastructure in Greece ? I wonder....

The point of it is - Germany cannot have it every way they want. You are right - Greece had irresponsible lending but the people will not tolerate the austerity. If it becomes a Euro debt, it is manageable. It would also stabilise Italy and Spain.



British banks are exposed too. At some point, like a bank that fails, Greece will go to the wall, to me it looks like even another bail-out will only buy time until the next one. You could step back and criticise the whole of the lending system in the first place, which was part of the toxic fluid that eventually contaminated so many accounts by 2008 something had to give. JP Morgan could be vulnerable. We may not be in the Euro, but the British are also paying for Greek duplicity -and we haven't even begun to consider what happens when Spain and Italy come close to the wire.

Its no news the lending system created this in the first place - we knew this 4 years ago. Why bother raking that one up ?

And yes - British banks are exposed. Would YOU feel more comfortable knowing Germany was going to pay you back or Greece ?

It is the only solution - fiscal union, and it is coming

[markyboy21]

Greece was always going to go bust without being able to devalue and with an economic system doomed to failure.
The Greek state pension starts at 53 and is 90% of the person's final salary for 600 professions, with some included for being hazardous such as hairdressers and pastry chefs(?). Therefore, most will take out far more than they ever paid in.
The Greek rail network is state owned and pays salaries that equate to 3 or 4 times the revenue collected as fares, with the surplus coming from central government taxes.
Add the two above examples with a thriving black market economy, where avoiding sales taxes is rife and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen.
There is also a reluctance for the German's bail out people they see as lazy, as viewed on Michael Portillo's documentary 'This World'.
Europe needs Greece outside the Euro and possibily Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland as well, before it can stabilise. The problem is although a lot of people can see what is needed, the politicians have still got this dream of a United States of Europe and will not let common sense prevail over their ego for this goal.
In case you hadn't guessed I'm a eurosceptic. I love Europe though, I just want it to remain different and not become homogenised.

[tsadriana]

Well Greece never paid taxes in their bloody lifes ,sorry but how can u sivive in Europe without payng nothing?Sorry to say that but better without Greece ,i dont see the point in helping a country who dont wants to do nothing.

[tsadriana]

I have chatted with few friends about this situation i Europe and as they said in the end the East Europe will become the strongest power in Europe....I doubt it but always a surprise can be a big surprise.

[hippifried]

Greece isn't leaving the EU. Nobody's going to kick them out either. They're merely leaving all this austerity nonsense that the bigs have been trying to shove down their throat. That shit doesn't work. It's never worked anywhere at any time, & there's no reason to think it ever will. It's a straight path to poverty that nobody ever climbs out of. Greece doesn't trade in drachma anymore & they're not going back. Who's going to force any of this shit? The Brits? They're an economic basket case, hoping against all odds that they can keep bullshitting the rest of the world into thinking that the pound is a legit currency. How about the Germans? What are they going to do? Take their ball & go home? Dump the euro & go back to the mark? Yeah right, like they wouldn't collapse. Who else? Oh that's right. They're the only ones promoting this stupid idea.

[markyboy21]

The debate is about Greece leaving the Euro not the EU. However, I agree that the austerity measures are not working, they are too severe for the Greek economy, yet the EU wants to turn the thumbscrews even more before another bailout. As for forcing the issue, this might inadvertantly be done by the UK. Labour are mooting the idea of a referendum on continuing the UK's membership of the EU, but I think the Tories will not risk Labour offering a referendum first and will beat them to it. The mood in the UK is becoming increasingly Eurosceptic, as in times of austerity people pay more attention to monetry facts, and where the EU is concerned the facts are not good reading for the Europhiles. The accounts for the EU haven't been signed by the auditors for 15 years, as they have said that they will be commiting fraud if they do, so it therefore difficult to obtain figures on what each country pays into the EU. The last figures I saw were in the run-up to the last UK election won by the Tories, which showed net payments for the UK of £5.9m, £3.9m for Germany (which has 50% more people than the UK) and £0.3m for France (therefore the UK paid 20x as much). As for the usual argument that the UK would not survive without being able to export to the EU, well we import more than we export to them (similar to Norway), so they need us more. Incidentally the country with the highest quality of life in the world is Norway and Switzerland is 6th and both are outside the EU.

[Stavros]

I agree markyboy21, particularly on the scandal of the EU's unaudited accounts, surely itself a criminal act? But only up to a point. I think there are short term and longer term issues which threaten to unravel the European project -the scale of Greece's debt and the failure of two bail-outs has been compounded by an inconclusive election. The major concern must be to avoid a run on the banks in Greece and also Spain, because so much money has been locked into debt re-cycling at a time when austerity is the dominant ideology. The politics is closer to Hippifried's view that Germany and France will move heaven and earth to maintain the Union, including Greece's membership of the Euro, although I don't know how they are going to do it unless some wizard comes up with a plan nobody had thought of before.

The longer term issue is Scotland -if Scotland opts for independence, it makes England more rather than less dependent on the EU, but Scotland could also break up if the Islands believe their future is best linked to Scandinavia, presumably the Welsh would rather be independent in Europe than England's little helper. What has begun as a crisis created by a lack of financial regulation at a time when everyone was borrowing money they often could not afford to pay back, has led us into a minefield in which the break-up of the UK looks more likely than the break-up of Europe: or maybe I am too pessimistic about the eventual referendum in Scotland.

Does anyone have new ideas on any of this?

[markyboy21]

Your right about the possible breakup of the UK, which is why the EU wanted England to have regional assemblies as well as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, to reduce the chance of the UK exiting the EU. I don't see the benefits of breaking up the union, if the countries are ruled by Brussels instead of Westminster, they just become smaller fish in a bigger pond. I think there will be a run on the banks you mentioned whatever happens, but it will be better sooner rather than later, and also in a controlled and expected manner.

[loveboof]

The Brits? They're an economic basket case, hoping against all odds that they can keep bullshitting the rest of the world into thinking that the pound is a legit currency.

How is the pound not a 'legit currency'?

[loveboof]

Shocking that that bloke cannot back up his opinion... Maybe he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about? ... maybe. lol

[hippifried]

Shocking that that bloke cannot back up his opinion... Maybe he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about? ... maybe. lol
The pound has no backing whatsoever & isn't a reserve. It's just another commodity that's worth exactly as many euros, yen, or yuan that you can talk somebody into trading for it. There's no there there. The only people who care about the pound are those who are stuck using it, & those who are taking a risk holding it & hoping it doesn't crash before they can dump it for real money.

[robertlouis]

The pound has no backing whatsoever & isn't a reserve. It's just another commodity that's worth exactly as many euros, yen, or yuan that you can talk somebody into trading for it. There's no there there. The only people who care about the pound are those who are stuck using it, & those who are taking a risk holding it & hoping it doesn't crash before they can dump it for real money.

But what, if anything, is the alternative for the UK? Right now and for the foreseeable future we're well out of the Euro. Granted the pound isn't a reserve currency, but attaching its fate to the Euro is a pointless exercise, similarly with the dollar. Until, and goodness only knows when that will be, there is a full realignment of reserve currencies when the global financial system has returned to a healthy equilibrium - which may not be in the lifetime of anyone posting on HA - the only sensible course for the UK is to remain independent on the status of its currency.

Until the dollar starts to shadow the yuan, of course.....:dancing:

[hippifried]

I don't know about you, but I remember the end of stable currencies. I can date it for you. August 15, 1971 was the day the dollar was debased by executive fiat at the behest of European powers (led by the Brits) who had been systematically attacking it through the peg to gold for several years. 25 years of stable worldwide growth came to a screeching halt. It took a couple of years to make everythibng official, but currencies have been floating in some phantom etherial "market" for the last 40 some odd years & the world has been caught in the artificial inflationary spiral that came along with it ever since. I can't speak for other currencies, but the dollar is worth about 7 or 8 cents, maybe, compared to the day before the Nixon shock. Since there isn't one single currency in the world that's on th rise, the way you make money in the phantom "market" is to lay bets on the rate of decline, & hope you can trade through fast enough to stay ahead. The whole thing's a fraud. Money's not a commodity. You're buying & selling money? Really? With what? The alternative for the UK is the same alternative for everybody. Repeg the currencies. & this time, leave gold & other artificial non-currencies with no intrinsic value out of the mix.

[loveboof]

The pound has no backing whatsoever & isn't a reserve. It's just another commodity that's worth exactly as many euros, yen, or yuan that you can talk somebody into trading for it. There's no there there. The only people who care about the pound are those who are stuck using it, & those who are taking a risk holding it & hoping it doesn't crash before they can dump it for real money.

Well that's all pretty meaningless since the fractional reserve banking system precludes anything other than an arbitrary valuation of all currency.

By simple definition, the pound is no less 'legit' than any other currency. Actually, is the pound sterling the worlds oldest currency still in use today? That could technically make it the most 'legit' - subjective terms, open to interpretation...

(and as it stands, the amount people have been 'talked into' trading the pound for is more than the worth of a single euro, yen, yuan, or dollar. Bizarre)

[hippifried]

Well that's all pretty meaningless since the fractional reserve banking system precludes anything other than an arbitrary valuation of all currency.
Huh? Who told you that? Somebody trying to sell you FOREX?

Fractional reserve banking has been around for how many centuries? Our own central bank will turn 100 next year. What? We were using some other system from 1946 to 1971? All the world's curencies were pegged. 25 years of stable worldwide growth. Not one bank panic. There was nothing arbitrary about the valuation of currencies. Arbitrary is the problem. Actually, I don't think "arbitrary" is an accurate term here. It makes things sound like this all happens by itself. Every currency on the planet is in decline, & it's all artificial. Somehow, that doesn't strike me as random. I just can't buy into this meme that all fucked up is the natural order of things, or worse, that it should be.

[LibertyHarkness]

i think the UK should leave the euro and stand on its own two feet again .. instead of propping up these fuckers . and wasting our resources .

[Prospero]

Liberty - Have you been reading the Daily Mail and Express again? Strewth.

[LibertyHarkness]

no i havnt , i think its disgusting we was once a glorious empire and now are reduced a mere shadow of our former selves .. king george would turn in his grave ..

Its insane the amount of control we have allowed europe to have over us as a nation .. what i wouldnt give to take control of this Island and push on :)

[jimbo1974]

On the bright side, if the drachma returns kebabs will be ridiculously cheap ! Yay !

[jimbo1974]

oops, Kebabs come from Turkey. hehehe

[BallBuster]

Greece is like a teenager who thinks is an adult and independant. It does not want anybody to tell them what to do, but it does NOT have the means to support itself. I would let them choose to stay or get out. If they choose to get out, no more allowance (loans) from daddy (EU). In my opinion they would be in financial ruin, much worse than they are now.

[Stavros]

i think the UK should leave the euro and stand on its own two feet again .. instead of propping up these fuckers . and wasting our resources .

A) the currency of the UK is Sterling, not the Euro; but the UK is in the European Union;

B) Churchill was an early advocate of a 'United States of Europe' -
"I wish to speak to you today about the tragedy of Europe. (...) Yet all the while there is a remedy which, if it were generally and spontaneously adopted by the great majority of people in many lands, would as if by a miracle transform the whole scene, and would in a few years make all Europe, or the greater part of it, as free and as happy as Switzerland is today. What is this sovereign remedy? It is to recreate the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and to provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe. (...) The first step in the recreation of the European Family must be a partnership between France and Germany."

Winston Churchill
Speech at Zurich University
19th September 1946


C) The EU is the largest single market in the world, and one from which the UK benefits.

[flabbybody]

hey Starvos. Why is the stock market rallying going into the election Sunday?
Should we root for the radical guy who wants to renegotiate the give backs?
I'm beginning to think if they flip the EU the proverbial bird and get on with the default it may be what the markets want to see.

[Stavros]

There is speculation that the elections will produce a hung parliament with Syriza on the left and the New Democracy Party on the right forming a government of national unity whose priority will be to stay in the Euro and fight (Syriza) or amend (New Democracy) 'austerity measures'. Opinion poll results cannot be published by law two weeks before an election -but some think its just hysteria in the markets. There must be some behind the scenes chatter as well, perhaps someone has been told that the Germans will not allow Greece to leave the Euro, I don't know. It may mean that the nightmare scenario, Greek leaving the Euro, re-establishing the Drachma, has subsided, but its not as if that solves Greece's financial problems, and it won't have much effect on its rising unemployment and the standard of living. If the elections show one thing, it may be that the extreme parties will lose votes as people bite the bullet and vote for parties that can actually govern -the violent outburst on tv by the Golden Dawn MP was an example of how crazy some of the fringe parties are, I don't think most Greeks want to be associated with that.

[hard4janira]

You know who should leave the Euro? Germany. Seriously, why should Germany be the whipping boy for all of the dead-weight in Europe. It would be a grand coup if they pulled it off. Let the rest of them sit around holding thier dicks, wondering where the loans are going to come from while they complain about austerity measures.

[flabbybody]

as I've learned from this forum, Germany has benefited significantly from a unified European currency and in fact was the driving force in its implementation.

[hard4janira]

Yes they have. And now they are being asked to pay an unfair share of the burden to bolster floundering economies in countries like Greece where a standard of living has been borrowed for 30 years.

Everybody is going to eat a shit sandwich. You either rip the band-aid off or you peel it off slowly. It is in Greece's best interest to take their lumps and stay in the Euro, but it is in Germany's best interest to dump Greece and take the short term pain that comes with it. What is NOT an option is for Greece to stay in the Euro AND repeal austerity mesures. If it comes to that, Germany is better off on thier own.

[Stavros]

The problem with the above analysis is that is based on economics, whereas politics has tended to determine decisions in the EU -indeed, it was politics that led Greece into the Euro, the country did not meet the criteria for membership in purely economic terms; and for Merkel it is the politics of a united Europe that matter most: in addition to which binding Germany to France and other European countries was intended from the start to be the means to prevent Germany from being the dominant country on the continent -just as France's crippling reparations at Versailles were meant to prevent Germany regaining its pre-1914 economic power: both have been failures in the sense that Germans are just extremely good at marshalling the resources at their disposal to make their country work well -admittedly not always German, given the important role played by foreign workers in the economic miracle -while others have been successful too -think of Italy in the 1960s- but for cultural and structural reasons have not been able to match German prowess in what also is the largest country in Europe, even before re-unification. Germans not only make things people want to buy, they invest in their country at every level, taxes are collected at every level, workers sit on company boards, board-room pay is generous but compares more favourably with other countries, for example it has been stated:

In Germany the ratio between the CEO and lowest paid worker is 12 times; France 15 times; Britain, 22 times. In America it rises to between 400 and 500 times. The country that comes closest to the American ratio is Venezuela's CEO's at 50 times the average pay. Japan prides itself at having the smallest disparity in salary between executives and their employees."

And both Germany and Japan can point to economic success albeit with periods of low growth; but survivors both, and neither has used their power militarily as was once the case.

It may be frustrating for the Germans to be in the top performing tier in Europe compared to other members of the EU, but the EU was never going to be a collection of equals -I now think that if Greeks vote for New Democracy and Syriza and want a government of any kind, there has to be some kind of 'historic compromise' in which right and left agree to move to a centre ground to keep Greece in the Euro, I think they now realise that to leave the EU would be a disaster far worse than the status they have at the moment: the challenge is to reform Greece, to create a country that colllects taxes and uses them for the purpose they are designed for. Italy is in the same situation regarding tax collection and corruption at local levels. These are not impossible dreams, they are all practical. I cannot predict the future, but I now think Greece should stay in the Euro and that monetary union will have to progress to fiscal union at some point in the next five years.

But is the EU as well as Greece willing to take on this challenge? Its called change.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/9621/economic-impact/executive-pay-across-the-world.html

[Stavros]

Clarification -the second paragraph above is a quote from the article in the link at the end.