Stavros
12-23-2011, 08:29 AM
As we approach the end of another year, there is no doubt that, as usual, the Middle East -broadly defined to include North Africa- has dominated the headlines; but I wonder if something happened this year which may not have received the same degree of attention, but whose long term impact may be profound.
Your thoughts on this and your highlights of the year are welcome.
Setting aside the perennials -Middle East, Afghanistan, the crisis in the EuroZone, I think the following will be of long term significance:
1) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest and the gradual relaxation of political debate in Burma. I don't think this is window dressing by the military regime, but a sign that the country will begin a process of change. Burma is a complex country with long-running guerrilla wars (Karen, San) compounding the military government's iron grip on the rest of the country, but I feel all the parties involved are weary of these battles and want to become part of the economic growth that has propelled China to the top rank of nations. As the Chinese economy begins to slow down, it will look at investment opportunities and new markets in the region, and Burma looks well placed to become a new economic zone, if not in 2012. 2011 may be the year it began to change.
2) Argentina and the Falklands/Malvinas. I don't know how to read the intentions of Argentina at the moment, but the pressure to do something to counter the exploration for oil in the Malvinas Basin that currently favours Uk-based corporations could become a top priority, so the decision this week of south American states to ban ships flying the Falklands flag to dock in their ports could be the first shot in a potential conflict. The obvious solution is to reach an agreement on the maritime boundary in the context of exploration and production -something similar to the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Act of 1999 which prevents Scotland from claiming sovereignty over the North Sea's oil and gas fields -or rather which enabes Scotland and England to share them. It is a difficult one because for Argentina, there is no boundary...is another war on the cards?
Your thoughts on this and your highlights of the year are welcome.
Setting aside the perennials -Middle East, Afghanistan, the crisis in the EuroZone, I think the following will be of long term significance:
1) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest and the gradual relaxation of political debate in Burma. I don't think this is window dressing by the military regime, but a sign that the country will begin a process of change. Burma is a complex country with long-running guerrilla wars (Karen, San) compounding the military government's iron grip on the rest of the country, but I feel all the parties involved are weary of these battles and want to become part of the economic growth that has propelled China to the top rank of nations. As the Chinese economy begins to slow down, it will look at investment opportunities and new markets in the region, and Burma looks well placed to become a new economic zone, if not in 2012. 2011 may be the year it began to change.
2) Argentina and the Falklands/Malvinas. I don't know how to read the intentions of Argentina at the moment, but the pressure to do something to counter the exploration for oil in the Malvinas Basin that currently favours Uk-based corporations could become a top priority, so the decision this week of south American states to ban ships flying the Falklands flag to dock in their ports could be the first shot in a potential conflict. The obvious solution is to reach an agreement on the maritime boundary in the context of exploration and production -something similar to the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Act of 1999 which prevents Scotland from claiming sovereignty over the North Sea's oil and gas fields -or rather which enabes Scotland and England to share them. It is a difficult one because for Argentina, there is no boundary...is another war on the cards?