Will Libya Cause Global Oil Chaos?

[Ben]

The investor class, as it were, is certainly concerned about contagion. How far will this pro-democracy movement spread. Will it spread into Saudi Arabia? Well, that's contagion....

YouTube - Will Libya Cause Global Oil Chaos? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmXnBjdZyB8)

[Ben]

YouTube - Max Keiser on Revolts: Americans Joining Middle East Uprising Trend (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7Usl1v7u40)

[Ben]

YouTube - Mauldin Says Higher Oil Prices May Help Trade Deficit (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwfgmQroWiU)

[onmyknees]

I don't know what kind of car you drive Ben...or if you drive at all, but I'd say you'll be digging deeper for your gas...and plan on that sooner rather than later.

[Stavros]

Speculators are laughing all the way to the bank -today's UK paper The Daily Talegraph reports that Nomura predict oil @ $220 a barrel in worst case scenarios -continuing shut down in Libya, descent into chaos in Algeria etc -the problem is that there is not enough transparency in production figures across the Middle East for us to know whats happening day to day -even the North Sea where tax evasion is a key element in suspicious figures -but surely only the guys on the rigs actually know the volume of oil that is actually pumped a day -? But if oil did go that high it would presumably rebound and extend the economic depression and in turn a dramatic lowering of the price -as there is no guarantee that China and India would continue to grow at the same pace with the same levels of demand...

Its the same old, same old -as long as people insist on putting gasoline in their motors instead of transitioning to electric/hybrid vehicles, the strategic importance of oil and the Arab world (and Venezuela for the US) will continue.

At least Libya's sulphur-lite oil would not be in the hands of a lunatic in fancy dress...

[hippifried]

Nothing's going to hapen except what's already happening. A bunch of speculators causing panic in the exchange to drive up the price before everybody figures out that it's all a bunch of bullshit.

[Faldur]

Where do you see pro-democracy in all of this. I think that has yet to be determined.

[hippifried]

I don't see "pro-democracy" so much as anti-tyranny. Dictatorial rule breeds corruption & stifles opportunity for individual achievement without corruption. This uprising in the Levant has taken everybody by surprize because we tend to dwell on power structures & ignore what people are talking about among themselves. Even now, everybody's talking bullshit about "power vacuums" & whatnot, like that's the problem. Times have changed. The 19th century models don't work anymore, if they ever did.

[Stavros]

Tony Blair and George Bush tried 'Revolution from Above' in Iraq on the assumption that a country liberated from a one-party/Bonapartist government would re-organise along party democratic lines, which in a way is what has happened -but in Iraq there were parties representing the interests of the Kurds, the Shia' and Sunna segments of society, even if some were underground and poorly funded and organised. Democracy in Iraq does not mean an accurate electoral roll or open debate in the way you are used to in the US or here in the UK, and it took what, 8 months for the Iraqi's to form a government after the last elections? Something like Italy in the past where inconclusive elections led to horse-trading among the parties. The level of violence in Iraq also means that the existing form of 'democratic rule' is contested, while large parts of the country are beyond the authority of the central government anyway, so I don't know that Iraq can be called a democracy -it takes years to develop a stable political system of the kinds we enjoy in Western Europe and North America.

In Libya Qadhafi so crushed opposition there are no immediate vehicles for popular representation, political identity has often been expressed in either regional or religious terms, Bengazi has always been a reluctant adjunct to Qadhafi's state, there was an Islamic movement and rebellion in the 90s that was crushed, so if Qadhafi goes they have to start from nothing -with no significant army presence, because Qadhafi feared it and split defence into multiple factions, so law and order will also be a problem -Qadhafi has already said its 'either me or chaos', but his own refusal to allow the development of civil society outside his preposterous 'People's Committees' has narrowed the options for Libyans, which is a pity because its a relatively small country with strong petroleum and tourist assets -another issue not much discussed is the 500,000 African immigrants from the Sahel countries who do the dirty jobs in Libya as well as being Qadhafi's mercenaries, unfortunately the prospects for a protracted period of violence in the country are stronger than smooth transition to anything we might recognise as democracy. Some legacy this screeching idiot has left to his country!

[Ben]

I don't know what kind of car you drive Ben...or if you drive at all, but I'd say you'll be digging deeper for your gas...and plan on that sooner rather than later.

Time to sell the car -- ha! ha! Sell off everything -- ha! ha! ha! :)

[hippifried]

We're still talking about power vacuum as if centralized power is necessary, desirable, or wanted. From what I'm seeing, the common theme of all this strife in the region is that central power isn't wanted at all. The idea that it's necessary is coming strictly from outside sources with all the stereotypes that come along with it.

Libya is organized along tribal lines. We may not understand the nuances of tribal dealings (that's obvious) but they do & so did Qadhafi. He held power by pitting one tribe against another & controling the spoils system by controlling the petrodollars. The common stereotype is that the tribes can't get along without killing each other unless somebody on top controls them. I can't find anything to substantiate that. This was the same thinking that was prevalent when we invaded Afghanistan. We ignored the tribes & established a central power structure, even installing a king for "stability". That's worked out real well. We're going on 10 years of fighting & the Taliban is back. The Libyan tribes could probably use some guidance in maintaining decorum while meeting among each other, but getting them to the bargaining table is essential to bringing this violence to a swift end without chaos taking hold. From there, they can work out their own details on governance & revenue sharing. There's no reason to think they're incapable of doing it.

[Stavros]

I should qualify an earlier comment, there are 'Black Libyans', mostly from the south, so it isn't clear if all the mercenaries hired by Qadhafi are from the Sahel or wherever, also there are apparently Serbs amongst the mercenaries -I think a lot of different people went to Libya to make money, from all over, so its risky to make allegations about who the mercenaries are -there might even be some Americans amongst them!

[south ov da border]

the whole middle east destabilization is planned and will bring about the fall of the dollar's purchasing power and rise in costs of food and important goods...

[onmyknees]

Where do you see pro-democracy in all of this. I think that has yet to be determined.


Agreed. They're demonstrating, but I remain unconvinced it's to achieve democracy.

[hippifried]

the whole middle east destabilization is planned and will bring about the fall of the dollar's purchasing power and rise in costs of food and important goods...
By whom? Inflation (loss of purchasing power) has been in a continuous spiral since 1971. The cost of food was shooting up again before any of this started. This entire movement seems to be anti-plutocrat. So who planned it? That's like saying that the Brits welcomed & worked for the independence of India.


As for democracy:
These are popular uprisings. Can't get much more democratic than that. Don't confuse democracy with some rigid political system as told by some western philosopher. Whether they come up with some recognizable republican system or not remains to be seen. Whatever they come up with, it'll be theirs. We're not going to get directly involved, & we shouldn't. Democracy is messy, & impossible to impose.

[Ben]

YouTube - Thom Hartmann: The Real Dirty Secret About Oil (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImeFY4Fax8Y)

[Ben]

And Ron Paul -- from 3 years ago...

YouTube - Ron Paul tells the real reason for the oil prices (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLGvybCr6AM)

[russtafa]

This world is so dependent on oil, and that is a very dangerous thing

[south ov da border]

[QUOTE=hippifried;887099]By whom? Inflation (loss of purchasing power) has been in a continuous spiral since 1971. The cost of food was shooting up again before any of this started. This entire movement seems to be anti-plutocrat. So who planned it? That's like saying that the Brits welcomed & worked for the independence of India.


QUOTE]
This stuff can be researched

1971 brought on the elimination of the gold standard. So what happened basically is that the US went around to middle eastern countries and made deals saying that they will but their oil, but only if they buy our treasury bills. SO because the dollar has been pegged for oil trade this has kept our system afloat because it constantly backs the debt. And the bankers stole the gold, but that's another story.

China recently made deals with Russia to buy oil and natural gas from them and not use dollars and surprise, we have rising food costs being blamed for an uprising in the middle east happening. Well that is by design. Can't hide the fact you are broke forever. America could use the oil here and be fine, but then they would have nobody to wash their debt, thus leaving us broke overnight.

See they have enough oil in alaska and some other stateside locations to perfectly keep us fueled and for cheap, but that's not the point. They want to take over the middle east, and once they do that or at least are on their way to it, the whole country will go broke beyond repair. But not just us, as they will leave those middle east countries that think they have money broke as well, along with most of the world. Then they can sell the cheap oil they have here for high prices and get even more rich. These uprisings are staged events, planned by such people as Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski in the 70's.

Democracy is a myth. We are a republic, not a democracy. Democracy means 51 to 49 means that at least half of us are screwed, Doesn't seem very fair.

expect high prices of oil, but worthless dollars soon, get your food supplies and precious metals for monetary purposes.


THIS WILL HAPPEN, unless intervention occurs...

[Ben]

Nelly Furtado to give Gadhafi paycheck to charity

The singer disclosed on Twitter that she was paid $1m to perform for the Gadhafi family, plans to donate proceeds

By Peter Finocchiaro


http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2011/02/28/nelly_furtado_gadhafi_twitter_donation/md_horiz.jpg Wikimedia/Tabercil

Pop stars Beyonce Knowles, Mariah Carey, Usher and 50 Cent have all received criticism for their recent silence on paychecks they received from the family of Moammar Gadhafi (http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/mariah-beyonce-usher-face-calls-to-donate-qaddafi-money-to-charity-20110228). Each of the celebrities earned cash for performing before the Libyan dictator's family in the past. Now that Gadhafi is waging a war of attrition against government dissenters, music industry insiders have insisted that the musicians donate the proceeds from their performances to charity. None have yet responded to the calls.
Nelly Furtado, on the other hand, has taking the initiative. The pop singer sent out a tweet (http://twitter.com/#%21/NellyFurtado/status/42276470231543808) from her @NellyFurtado (http://twitter.com/#%21/NellyFurtado) handle earlier today in which she disclosed that she had received money from the Gadhafis and said that she did plan to donate the funds to a charitable cause:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2011/02/28/nelly_furtado_gadhafi_twitter_donation/Picture_24.png
We reached out to Furtado to inquire about her choice of charity but haven't yet heard back

[hippifried]

1971 brought on the elimination of the gold standard.

It was a lot more than that. The main flaw in Bretton Woods was the peg to gold to start with. But at that time, every currency in the world was pegged to the dollar. The "gold standard" was always a myth, but with the executive fiat on Aug 15, 1971, there was no more "gold standard" of any kind. 2 years later, the IMF removed all the official pegs. The shock threw the power to value the dollar to the derivative currency futures speculators, where it's been losing ground ever since. It's worth somewhere between 8 & 9% in goods & services of what it was before the shock. The only thing that saves us is that all the other currencies are falling too.

As for oil, we still have a certain amount of control because it's all traded in dollars. The Brits wanted the pound to be the standard. That's why they attacked the dollar in the first place, in order to kill Bretton Woods. Hell, they cried like a bunch of brats when the dollar became the world reserve in '46. They settled for the world petroleum exchange being based in London instead of New York. There's no reserve cuttency anymore.

China has deals with every oil exporting country. So do we. So does anybody else who imports petroleum. If they can buy direct without dealing with the currency traders & bypassing the London exchange, more power to them. They have a real long common border. We buy oil & gas from Canada & Mexico without going through London. What's the difference? They have a deal with Iran too, & there's talks going on to create a common Asian currency. Same kind of talks are happening in South America too.

The sky's not falling. The days of hegemony are just coming to an end. What's happening in the Levant is a good thing. If the people of the region gain some rise in their standard of living, we have a market for products other than weapons. Same goes for China & India or anywhere else that's been dirt poor. That can't happen with dictators in place that control trade & hoard the money. Nobody's going back to a "gold standard". Everything's changing. I just worry that were going to end up behind the curve by tryin to hang onto some lame mythological ideology.

[beandip]

1. Libya's oil goes to Europe.

2. The uprisings are much less about Democracy...than about USA exporting inflation by QEII.

When 2/3rds of the worlds population gets by on less than 2$ a day.... and rice ramps up 40% in 3 months. People go hungry. When parents go home to a bunch of starving kids....they get pissed and riot (rightfully so).

Wanna know who's starving more people all over the world now than ever in recorded history?

Ben Bernanke.

Do the fucking math.

The recent disaster in Japan just gave that shit bag Bernanke all the more reason for QEIII

You think you see political unrest now? Wait 9 months. They're sellin' this shit as "pro Democracy", nuthin' could be further from the truth.

Hang on to your ass 'cause we're in for a wild fucking ride.

[trish]

Wanna know who's starving more people all over the world now than ever in recorded history?Extreme weather conditions due to global climate change.

[russtafa]

Far too many people per square mile on this earth ?

[Faldur]

Extreme weather conditions due to global climate change.

Lol, almost spit my coffee across the desk.. here we go again!

http://thelunaticarms.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/al-gore-manbearpig.jpg

[south ov da border]

this whole thing is planned. They set it in motion when the oil was found in the middle east but they couldn't well it. American and British oil people and bankers set it up with the government and millitary that these oil producing countries would produce our oil, we wouldn't use our reserves and they would buy our t-bills. They also had in mind that they didn't want to be responsible for the baby boomer generation to start getting pensions so they set that whole 401k debacle into motion. It's about time for them to cash in, so that's why the bankers are going all precious metals and commodities. It's not specualators that are raising the prices of everything but these bankers that have had all this planned.

and they plan on killing a whole lot of people so they don't have to pay for them. I'm convinced of that.

The middle east situation is just an excuse for them to play monopoly...

[south ov da border]

Extreme weather conditions due to global climate change.
:soapbox

if you would have said extreme weather due to climate change because of atmosphere depletion I might have said ok, but climate change is a cycle that happens due on solar activity amongst other things. The whole solar system is experiencing climate change. Ever heard o X class solar flares? It's not just this planet that is going bonkers weather wise.

And Genetically modified seeds that have to be replanted every year are another reason that food prices go up. Look these things up, the info is out there. Farmers have to keep buying seeds because of this.


The whole regulate carbon *which we breathe and plant life needs* by taxing it is rediculous. It's like saying regulate the amont of times a person can ejaculate because it will control population growth, no matter if it's actually in a woman or not. I can hear it now "I'm sorry but you took 10000 breaths too many today so you owe us a tax of...":whistle: