politics in Egypt

[russtafa]

Is Egypt in for a revolution?

[hippifried]

I don't think so & I hope not. I don't know how much pressure it'll take for Mubarak to step down, but it's probably time. A shootin' revolution would destabilize the entire region even more than it already is, & the chances of another theocracy as a result are a bit too high for me to be comfortable.

[russtafa]

i thought Americans would be more extroverted in the 21st century to be aware of whats going on in the world but i guess i'm wrong.

[Etranger]

Too many years of corruption and indifference by ruling powers is coming to an end, is it a revolution? Not in the conventional sense, not in the way that overthrowing King Farouk in the 1950s launched Egypt onto a more modern path, but right now with the possible exception of el-Baradei who is there in Egypt who can stand for elections and win a genuinely popular vote?

Egyptians used to be the construction workers of the region -like the Irish in Britain- but they lost out to Indians in the Gulf and were thrown out of Iraq in 1990 many without being paid. Egyptian teachers used to man the schools across the Arab world but now each country has its own; and the oil and gas industry is only labour intensive in its early phase, so there are severe pressures on jobs in a country with 80 million.

Reasons to be positive:
Egypt is strategically located with the Suez Canal, it links the Mediterranean area with Africa and the Middle East, it has a long and occasionally magnificent history, it is a popular place for tourists and has excellent and cheap facilities, with generally friendly people many of whom speK English. There is a growing portfolio of mostly gas fields in the Gulf of Suez, the Western Desert and for the future the offshore in the Mediterranean: money earners as well as a source of cheap energy for the population. A relatively strong agricultural base offers locally sourced food.

Reasons to be cautious:
The elites who did well out of Mubarak are unlikely to decamp to places like Saudi Arabia or the Gulf, they have strong links to the security services, but are alienated from the majority; the primary drivers in North Africa right now are young relatively secular university graduates and unskilled workers, but the attractions of easy power for the Muslim radicals could create a problematic scenario in which neither secularists nor Muslim fanatics can capture overall power -Egypt could be unstable for some time.

Up to now Mubarak traded pro-US policies for cash, Egypt's debt has been written off at least twice in the last 30 years, but if the new people are anti-Israel, they will lose US funding while Israeli intervention is likely to be greater than it is already and more aggressive -its not Tunisia after all.

Fascinating times...

[thombergeron]

I doubt there'll be a full-on revolution. The state is just too strong and too pervasive. But I think Mubarak will definitely be driven to implement some democratic reforms.

Important to keep in mind that these protests are being organized by democratic secularists, not by Islamic fundamentalists. The Muslim Brotherhood has been devastated by the dictatorship over the past 20 years. So we're not looking at a choice between dictatorship and theocracy here.

[Etranger]

Yes the question right now is if Mubarak is going to run away...

[Odelay]

The Muslim Brotherhood has been devastated by the dictatorship over the past 20 years. So we're not looking at a choice between dictatorship and theocracy here.
You're really that confident to say that a theocracy won't arise? Egypt's population is almost entirely muslim, many of them very devout. I would predict that in any reformation or revolution of the present government, it will result in greater power and voice for the muslim religion, although hopefully not a full blown theocracy.

[bte]

Well don't know if anyone has heard in this thread, but Egypt has completely disconnected their Internet. The only thing that has Internet right now is the Egyptian stock market. Seems like to me that they are trying to silence everyone in their contry from reporting whats going on in their country. They did block sites like Facebook and Twitter, but decided to just disconnect from the Internet entirely. So in response to the OP question, I believe Egypt is heading for a revolution.

[Ben]

It seems to be happening all over. First Tunisia. Now: Morocco, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan....
Anyway, here's an article about the protest movements in the Middle East. So, it isn't just Egypt -- :)

Factbox: Protests in North Africa and Middle East

Reuters January 25, 2011

Protests have spread in a number of North African and Middle Eastern countries, and continue in Tunisia following the downfall of president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

* EGYPT:
— In Egypt, lawyer Mohamed Farouk Hassan, 52, shouted slogans against rising prices before setting himself alight on Jan. 18 and a second man tried to follow suit. A day earlier another Egyptian poured gasoline over himself and lit it after protesting against poor living conditions. His injuries were described as slight.
— Three more Egyptians set themselves alight on Jan. 21, one was seriously injured. The two other workers, from firms in Egypt's textile sector, an industry from which many factory workers have led the most violent demonstrations against the government in recent years, also poured fuel over themselves and set themselves ablaze.
— Thousands of Egyptians demanded on Tuesday an end to President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule and clashed with police, in unprecedented protests inspired by the downfall of Tunisia's president.
— Egyptians face the same complaints that drove Tunisians to the street: surging food prices, poverty, unemployment and authoritarian rule that normally smothers public protests quickly and often brutally.
— Tuesday's demonstrations also took place in Ismailia and Suez, both cities east of Cairo, and in other Nile Delta cities like Mansoura and Tanta. A protest also occured in north Sinai.

* TUNISIA: — Protests that brought down President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali on Jan. 14 erupted after Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire on Dec. 17 because police seized his grocery cart. — Bouazizi died of his burns, becoming a martyr to crowds of students and the unemployed protesting against poverty and unemployment in Tunisia.
— Protests have continued since Ben Ali's departure despite the formation of a new government. The government said 78 people were killed in demonstrations since December. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights put the number at 117, including 70 shot dead.
— Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi said on Friday he intended to retire from politics after organizing elections but this has not stemmed the protests.
— Police fired teargas canisters on Jan. 24 to disperse protesters in central Tunis as pressure grew for the removal of government ministers linked to the ousted president Ben Ali.
— Teachers held a protest outside the Ministry of Education in Tunis and state television said some schools were closed.

* ALGERIA: — Several Algerian towns including the capital experienced days of rioting earlier this month, provoked by a jump in food prices. Two people died and hundreds were injured during clashes between rioters and police, officials said. At least four men set themselves on fire in provincial towns in the past week.
— To calm the situation, Algeria has decided to cut the cost of some foodstuffs and to increase by 18 per cent the amount of soft wheat it supplies to the local market each month.

* JORDAN:
— Hundreds of protesters chanted slogans against Prime Minister Samir al-Rifai in the southern city of Karak on Jan. 14.
— The peaceful protest was held despite hastily announced government measures to curb commodity and fuel prices. Similar demonstrations were held in the capital Amman and the northern town of Irbid, and about 200 people protested in the Dhiban, south of Amman.
— Jordan announced a $225 million package of cuts in the prices of some types of fuel and of staple products including sugar and rice.

* SUDAN:
— Students held protests in the universities of Khartoum and Gezira against proposed cuts in subsidies in petroleum products and sugar, a strategic commodity in Sudan.
— The protests spread to the towns of Wad Medani and Hassa Heissa in Gezira state, where students clashed with police who used tear gas to subdue crowds.
— Prices of other goods have already risen due to a surge in global food prices and a devaluation of the local currency.

* OMAN:
— About 200 people protested this month in Muscat demanding the government to stop corruption and address rising prices in a protest that appeared to have been inspired by the toppling of the Tunisian president.
* MAURITANIA:
— In Mauritania's capital Nouakchott, Yacoub Ould Dahoud staged a self-immolation protest on Jan. 17 against alleged government mistreatment of his tribe.

* SAUDI ARABIA:
— A Saudi man in his sixties died after setting fire to himself on Jan. 21 in underdeveloped Jizan province bordering Yemen. It was not clear whether his act was inspired by other cases of self-immolation in the region.

* MEASURES TAKEN ELSEWHERE:

— Libya has abolished taxes and custom duties on locally-produced and imported food products in response to a global surge in food prices, Oea newspaper reported.
— The measures include wheat by-products, rice, vegetable oil, sugar and infant formula, Oea said.
— Morocco introduced a compensation system for importers of milling soft wheat aimed at keeping prices stable after a surge in grain prices.

Reuters NA....

[Ben]

Quoting from an article written by Robert Fisk: "... you don't need to read the papers to see what has gone wrong. The filth and the slums, the open sewers and the corruption of every government official, the bulging prisons, the laughable elections, the whole vast, sclerotic edifice of power has at last brought Egyptians on to their streets."

[thombergeron]

You're really that confident to say that a theocracy won't arise? Egypt's population is almost entirely muslim, many of them very devout. I would predict that in any reformation or revolution of the present government, it will result in greater power and voice for the muslim religion, although hopefully not a full blown theocracy.

This continues to be a source of confusion for many Westerners, but most Muslims, even most devout Muslims, do not wish to live in a theocracy. One out of every five people on earth is Muslim; very few of them currently live in a theocracy, and many that do would really prefer not to.

[Ben]

YouTube - Egypt - Free Kareem Amer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Erl7lrJQ_nk&feature=related)

YouTube - Congressman Kirk's speech on Kareem Amer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXImSnlxPGA)

[Ben]

History's Longest Imprisoned Blogger, Kareem Amer, is Free (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/historys_longest_imprisoned_blogger_kareem_amer_is .php)

By Marshall Kirkpatrick (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/author/marshall-kirkpatrick.php) / November 16, 2010 10:06 AM

The man believed to have been imprisoned longer than anyone else in the world for the contents of a blog, Egyptian Abdul Kareem Nabeel Suleiman, has been released after four years and 10 days of detention, his supporters have announced on their blog (http://www.freekareem.org/2010/11/16/kareem-amer-is-free/).
Suleiman, who blogged under the name Kareem Amer, was sentenced in 2006 to four years of jail for insulting religion and the leadership of Egypt on his blog. He was critical of, among other things, Egypt's treatment of women and of its Coptic Christian minority. Supporters report that during those four years, Amer was tortured, beaten, attacked by other prisoners, disowned by his family and had his books, letters and personal effects taken away. His case is of international interest not just because of his humanity, but because of the political conflict between authoritarian states and a new world of freely self-published bloggers who would challenge them with new Web technology.

Due to the political importance of his case, Amer gained an international support movement that kept him in the online news throughout his time in prison. ReadWriteWeb has covered his case at least five times, most recently and in depth (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/egyptian_blogger_kareem_amer_finishes_prison_sente .php) when his sentence expired, but he remained in state custody for an additional 10 days.
Amer's supporters say he is declining interviews while recovering from his detention.

Though Kareem Amer was the longest-imprisoned blogger known, detained for most of the history of this young phenomenon called Social Media, he was not alone.
A report by international media watchdog organization Reporters Sans Frontières (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/imprisoned_attacked_dead_bloggers_increases_worldw .php) last year found that there were 151 people in prison around the world because of the contents of their blogs in 2009, a nearly three-fold increase over 2008.
Iranian cultural satire blogger Omid Reza Misayafi (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/iranian_blogger_reported_dead_in_prison.php) is believed to be the only blogger killed in prison to date. He was sentenced in 2008 to 30 months in prison for "insulting Islamic Republic Leaders" but died under mysterious and allegedly abusive circumstances after just six months of detention.
With brave bloggers in mind who are free, imprisoned and deceased around the world, we leave you with the moving short video Iran: A Nation of Bloggers (http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/iran_a_nation_of_bloggers.php), about just one of many places where disruptive social media and authoritarian tradition clash, and where the stakes are at their highest.

[Ben]

And according to VP Biden, well, Mubarak is NOT a dictator -- ha! ha! And I quote: "Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is not a dictator and shouldn't step aside in the face of mounting protests against his nearly 30-year rule."

[Ben]

Q&A interview with Professor Stephen Zunes (http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/41316837/ns/world_news/), professor of politics and chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco:

Q: What can you tell us about how widespread the support is for the uprising among Egyptians?
A: One thing that's struck me about this uprising is its breadth — old-young, men-women, Christian-Muslim, secular-poor and middle class; factory workers and intellectuals. Though the initial instigators were young and middle class, it's one of the broadest based uprisings of its kind I’ve ever seen. If there were a free election held today I'd be surprised if Mubarak got more that 20-23 percent of the vote. Of course, he wouldn't hold free elections and all the elections held in the past have been rigged.
Q: I know this situation has a very long history, but can you tell us what has spurred this to happen now?
A: Frustration with the Mubarak regime has been growing, but no doubt the democratic revolution in Tunisia played a role. Indeed, recent decades have seen scores of unarmed insurrections against corrupt autocratic regimes from the Philippines to Poland, from Chile to Serbia, from Maldives to Mali.
Q: What are the basics that the people are demanding? That is, for what are they struggling/fighting?
A: Freedom of speech, press, assembly, free/honest elections, etc. which they believe is impossible as long as Mubarak (or his son) is in power. Also, greater economic justice; poverty and inequality are growing. Liberalizing the economy while not liberalizing the political system is a dangerous combination.
Q: Given that this is happening in more than one Arab country, what do you think the likelihood is that this could spread to Saudi Arabia? Is the House of Fahd any better positioned to deal with an uprising than Mubarak?
A: Saudi Arabia, unfortunately, will probably be among the last to change. As an oil-rich … state, they can buy off a lot of potential opponents. In addition, the power of the hard-line Wahabbi clerics may make pro-democracy elements nervous about challenging the monarchy for fear at what might replace it.
Q: What role do you believe the Muslim Brotherhood is playing in the Egypt protests and does that organization enjoy broad support among the Egyptian people?
A: The demonstrations are led primarily by young people who are not only anti-regime, but find the aging leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood as out of touch with their day-to-day realities as the government. There seems little support for the more extreme Islamists either. The Brotherhood's refusal to endorse the protests until after they started and were clearly gaining support was clearly opportunistic and doesn't help their standing.
Q: Does Iran play any part in this ... behind the scenes?
A: Iran has very little influence in Egyptian politics.
Q: With the U.S. support of Mubarak, how can they expect anyone that replaces him to be friendly to the U.S. It seems like the U.S. once again has provided an excuse to an Islamic state to hate them.
A: While I don't expect a post-Mubarak government to be fanatically anti-American or dominated by Islamist radicals, there is understandable disappointment among most Egyptians at the longstanding support from Washington of the Mubarak dictatorship. A democratic Egyptian government would likely be somewhat more independent from the U.S. and the IMF, but not overtly hostile.
Q: Is there popular support for Mohamed ElBaradei? What aspirations does he have?
A: ElBaradei would be a likely consensus leader, supported by both secular nationalists and moderate Islamists. Has strong democratic credentials.
Q: How do these protests affect other moderate governments in the region, such as Jordan?
A: I think authoritarian governments throughout the region, whether they are pro- or anti-American, are probably pretty nervous right now.
Q: Does Mubarak still enjoy support from the military, or is their allegiance leaning towards the protesters?
A: The military leadership still supports him, but there are serious questions as to whether ordinary soldiers will be willing to suppress the protesters.
Q: Do you think people in Egypt will be able to accomplish anything out of this protest? Even with the strict government they have?
A: Egypt will never be the same. The apathy and feelings of powerlessness have been shattered. Even if Mubarak survives the current round of protests, Egyptian civil society has been re-awakened. His days in power are numbered. It's a reminder that if democracy comes to the Arab world, it will come not from foreign intervention or sanctimonious statements from Western capitals, but from the people themselves.
Q: Is the safety of Israel at risk if the government is toppled, and what would happen to the world's oil supply's ability to make it thru the Suez Canal?
A: The people of Egypt want social and economic justice and would not be inclined to get in a war with Israel or risk a confrontation with the international community around oil supplies. These protests are about domestic issues, about freedom and justice. While there is certainly broad sympathy for the Palestinian cause, they have more pressing matters at home to deal with.
Q: Is this an uprising more rooted in oppression from the government rather than a religious ideology?
A: There are Christians and Muslims and secularists all out of the street. This is very much about resisting government oppression and its mismanagement of the economy than about religion.
Q: How do the riots affect us here in the U.S.? Why should we care?
A: The United States has been the major economic, political and military supporter of the Mubarak regime for nearly 30 years. This has hurt our standing. Much of the anti-Americanism in the Middle East is not because they "hate our freedom" but because our policies have, unfortunately, been less about freedom than about supporting dictators like Mubarak. This needs to change if we are to have any credibility in that part of the world.
Q: Do you think that regional unrest will prompt U.S. military action? Will it prompt any economic sanctions or other penalties?
A: Not likely. Military force paradoxically doesn't work very well against hundreds of thousands of unarmed demonstrators. In addition, I would assume that the Obama administration would recognize it would put us on the wrong side of history. U.S. intervention will probably be limited to the diplomatic front. So far there have been no threats of suspending U.S. military aid.
Q: What sort of time frame are you expecting in terms of transition in Egypt? And, what other power players might try to muscle in?
A: No telling. Obviously lots of domestic and foreign elements will try to take advantage of the situation, but it will be the Egyptian people on the streets who will ultimately determine the nation's future.
Q: Would whatever type of regime that arises from this keep similar relations that Israel and Egypt currently have, or could this lead to a step back?
A: I would guess that a democratic Egyptian government might be more outspokenly critical of certain Israeli policies, but I don't think there's any realistic chance of breaking off the peace treaty or anything like that.
Q: Are we seeing signs of broader support from the Egyptian middle class or the intellectual community and how important is that to the success of the protesters in this situation?
A: Yes, there is growing opposition across class lines. And, even if the protests are initially suppressed, I think it will embolden Egyptian intellectuals to be more outspoken in their opposition.
Q: Is this similar to the protests in Iran, i.e., the government will slowly squash it?
A: The Egyptian government could, like the Iranian regime in 2009, successfully crush the rebellion this round. However, the Egyptian regime has a much smaller social base than the Iranian regime, and is therefore far more vulnerable in the longer term.
Q: How will this affect control of the Suez canal - thus the price of oil?
A: It shouldn't affect the normal operations of the Suez Canal, unless the canal operators joined a general strike. Even in that case, the impact on oil prices would be minimal, since most supertankers are too big for the canal anyway.
Q: If Hosni Mubarak steps down, how likely is it that his son, Gamal Mubarak, (or perhaps his other son) would take over and be accepted by the people? ... Do the Egyptian citizens view the sons any differently than the father? (Editor's note: BBC News reported Saturday that the elder Mubarak's sons, Gamal and Alaa, had flown to London; Egypt's state-run television denied the report.)
A: Gamal is disliked even more than his father. I was one of those predicting an uprising like we are seeing now if he was named president. Even in Hosni Mubarak can hold on for awhile longer, I think it's safe to say at this point that Gamal's career is finished.
Q: Why is Gamal more disliked than his father?
A: Gamal is seen as a spoiled brat and not particularly competent. In addition, the 1952 revolution was to overthrow a monarchy and establish a republic, so hereditary succession is seen as something of an anachronism.
Q: How will this unrest affect U.S. citizens who want to travel to Egypt?
A: I don't think they have to worry about their personal safety in terms of being attacked for being Americans. However, normal travel could be disrupted because of demonstrations, etc.
Q: What is the "best case" scenario for this demonstration?
A: Best case scenario in my view would be a speedy transition to an interim government under ElBaradei or similar credible figure with free elections some time in the next few months.
Q: Is it probable that Mubarak will agree to at least some of the protesters' demands? And, are the protesters likely to accept?
A: Mubarak may try to accede to some of the protesters demands, but at this point he may need to be thinking more in terms of sooner or later going into exile. His credibility is shot at this point.
Q: What role are women playing in the protests? Are Muslim and Christian women taking to the streets?
A: Women have not been as visible as during the Tunisian protests, but they have been present, particularly during the more nonviolent protests during daylight. And there have been both Christians and Muslims, both with headscarves and without.
Q: Do you see a warmer peace with Israel if Mubarak falls? I would describe the current peace as a cold peace.
A: At least while the current right-wing Israeli government is in power, it will more likely continue to be a cold peace. Things could warm up with a more moderate Israeli leadership, however.
Q: What do you think the U.S. response should be?
A: I have been disappointed in the Obama administration's failure to more openly challenge the Mubarak regime and more openly support the pro-democracy movement. I would advocate, for example, for a suspension of U.S. military aid.
Q: Does the wave of activism in north Africa prompt the populations of Iran and Syria to respond in a similar manner? Are there benevolent monarchies in the region that have earned a viable relationship with their citizenry, thereby mitigating the populist uprisings?
A: Civil society is weaker in Syria and their secret police are stronger, but there is still a lot of discontent with Assad. I do expect to see another round of protests in Iran at some point, not because of North Africa, but because the grievances with the Iranian regime are as strong as ever. Kuwait, in part because of major nonviolent protests a few years ago, has opened up politically. The monarchy is still ultimately in charge, but the parliament has some real power as well.

[russtafa]

Has any one considered the significance of the Egyptian goverment pulling the plug on the internet

[Ben]

YouTube - Egypt's Weapons, Made in USA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTfi9Zm4yXE)

[russtafa]

A goverment in any country can turn off that country's internet in a emergency situation

[Stavros]

On UK tv tonight Ahdaf Soueif took the view that first Mubarak cut the internet -the crowds stayed put; they played safe with the tanks on the streets -the crowds stayed put; they flew F-16 fighter jets overhead -the crowd stayed put; Mubarak said he would leave office in September -the crowds stayed put: each one a test to see who can take it most -I think Mubarak and his cronies were genuinely thrown by this as they are used to being obeyed -so they sent in their paid agent provocateurs -NPD party apparatchiks, convicts let out of prison, unemployed given a few pounds and half a chicken (half!) to thrown stones, petrol bombs etc -basically cause chaos to justify a military response etc etc.

right now its not looking good, I think it must come down to the Army and whether or not a largely conscript army will obey its fat cat officers or rebel -which means not just a change in the political leadership but also the military who, after all claim they created the modern Republic -Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak all came from the military...

[Ben]

Noam Chomsky being interviewed by Amy Goodman:

YouTube - Noam Chomsky on Protests: "This Is The Most Remarkable Regional Uprising That I Can Remember" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qG1kD7rJ_Cs)

[Ben]

Just thought I'd pass this info along. Quoting from an Amy Goodman article: 'Mubarak’s regime has received roughly $2 billion per year since coming to power, overwhelmingly for the military. Where has the money gone? Mostly to U.S. corporations. I asked William Hartung of the New America Foundation to explain:
“It’s a form of corporate welfare for companies like Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, because it goes to Egypt, then it comes back for F-16 aircraft, for M-1 tanks, for aircraft engines, for all kinds of missiles, for guns, for tear-gas canisters [from] a company called Combined Systems International, which actually has its name on the side of the canisters that have been found on the streets there.”'
Plus Mubarak keeps $300 million for himself. All monies courtesy of the American taxpayer. Ahhh... gotta love the absolute corruption... ha! ha! ha!

YouTube - Fifty Years After Eisenhower's Farewell Address, A Look at "Prophets of War" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jlud4zB5CSo)

[notdrunk]

YouTube - Egypt's Weapons, Made in USA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTfi9Zm4yXE)

Epic fail in that video clip. She blatantly ignores why we give aid to Egypt. For those who don't know, the reason why we give 1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt each year is due to the Camp David Accords. It was one of the agreements that allowed peace between Egypt and Israel. But, hey, lets shit on the United States!

IMO, Russia Today is worse than Fox News.

[Ben]

Epic fail in that video clip. She blatantly ignores why we give aid to Egypt. For those who don't know, the reason why we give 1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt each year is due to the Camp David Accords. It was one of the agreements that allowed peace between Egypt and Israel. But, hey, lets shit on the United States!

IMO, Russia Today is worse than Fox News.

I happen to think that Fox News is great comedy -- ha! ha! (What's interesting about Faux News is that Glenn Beck is apolitical. He does not care about politics. He's a businessman. Like Murdoch. Beck cares about Beck Inc. He cares about his brand, his empire. But he's also a great stand up comedian. I'd rank him up there with the greats: Pryor, Carlin etc...)

YouTube - Glenn Beck - 1st Date (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA0ESDBf8Rw&feature=channel)

[notdrunk]

Just thought I'd pass this info along. Quoting from an Amy Goodman article: 'Mubarak’s regime has received roughly $2 billion per year since coming to power, overwhelmingly for the military. Where has the money gone? Mostly to U.S. corporations. I asked William Hartung of the New America Foundation to explain:
“It’s a form of corporate welfare for companies like Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, because it goes to Egypt, then it comes back for F-16 aircraft, for M-1 tanks, for aircraft engines, for all kinds of missiles, for guns, for tear-gas canisters [from] a company called Combined Systems International, which actually has its name on the side of the canisters that have been found on the streets there.”'
Plus Mubarak keeps $300 million for himself. All monies courtesy of the American taxpayer. Ahhh... gotta love the absolute corruption... ha! ha! ha!

YouTube - Fifty Years After Eisenhower's Farewell Address, A Look at "Prophets of War" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jlud4zB5CSo)

Egypt is going to keep getting that military aid even if Mubarak is replaced. We basically bribed Egypt not to start anymore wars with Israel (vice versa). Great idea by Jimmy Carter! The World doesn't need another war in the Middle East involving Israel and Egypt on opposite sides.

I guess Amy wants more war...:party:

[Brandi Boots]

Egypt is going to keep getting that military aid even if Mubarak is replaced. We basically bribed Egypt not to start anymore wars with Israel (vice versa). Great idea by Jimmy Carter! The World doesn't need another war in the Middle East involving Israel and Egypt on opposite sides.


More thanks we can give to ol Jimmy :loser:.....Its just a shame the he dosent get to take the heat for this kind of stuff!

[trish]

We basically bribed Egypt not to start anymore wars with Israel (vice versa). Great idea by Jimmy Carter!Actually that sounds like it was a pretty good idea. We keep a military base in Egypt, make it sound like it's financial aid and in return Egypt becomes Israel's ally...win, win. Do I have to mention it's in our strategic interest to have a few military bases in and near the Middle East while we're carrying out our undeclared wars there? Not only that, Egypt helps us monitor the terrorist networks in the Middle East & Northern Africa and with their aid, according to Dick Cheney, we've thwarted dozens of potential attacks on U.S. commercial airliners. This last is one of the reasons the situation in Egypt right now is so tricky for us. What other countries in the region besides Israel and Egypt have helped as much in this regard? Will we be able to rely on the new Egyptian government (and I do sincerely hope there will be one very, very soon that is representative of the people of Egypt) to do the same?

[Stavros]

At the time in the late 1970s, the US had or was in the process of losing its regional allies in Iran and Ethiopia, while further south the southern African cone was also being radicalised after the end of Portguese colonial rule with implications for what at the time was seen as the major prize -South Africa. Egypt was a soft option with strong stategic credentials -Suez Canal, inter-Arab relations etc, but if you look it up, and you will need a calculator, every time the parties to the 'Arab-Israel conflict' agreed to something, the US taxpayer had to pay for it, and the Arabs always failed to negotiate as big a deal as the Israeli's who usually got twice or three times as much as the Arabs; also they used a lot of their 'yankee dollars' to spend and save in...the USA....or sell on to other countries the hardware they got from the US in violation of the agreements etc -don't forget Israel is also deeply corrupt, its probably the old adage about the corrupting influence of power, rather than a regional thing. Israel was a strong supporter of Milosovic in Serbia, after all, there are contradictions everywhere you look...

Mubarak, by organising the anti-freedom sabotage has effectively ruled himself and his cronies out of the equation, they can only rule now through overt oppression of the Saddam Hussein kind, there might be a stalemate for a while, but if the military are up to it, another group of 'Young Officers' will clear out the old guard, preside over new elections and a new constitution, and hope their gravy train doesn't stop at Tel-Aviv. The irony of all that investment in the military is that the Egyptian army is still under-equipped and useless on the battlefield...

[notdrunk]

Actually that sounds like it was a pretty good idea. We keep a military base in Egypt, make it sound like it's financial aid and in return Egypt becomes Israel's ally...win, win. Do I have to mention it's in our strategic interest to have a few military bases in and near the Middle East while we're carrying out our undeclared wars there? Not only that, Egypt helps us monitor the terrorist networks in the Middle East & Northern Africa and with their aid, according to Dick Cheney, we've thwarted dozens of potential attacks on U.S. commercial airliners. This last is one of the reasons the situation in Egypt right now is so tricky for us. What other countries in the region besides Israel and Egypt have helped as much in this regard? Will we be able to rely on the new Egyptian government (and I do sincerely hope there will be one very, very soon that is representative of the people of Egypt) to do the same?

It was one of few achievements during his presidency. I really don't think we can't rely on an Egyptian government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is now saying that the peace treaty needs to be rewritten when a provisional government is formed (Brotherhood included in the provisional government). That will open a big can of worms. The only reason I am paying attention to them is that they are the largest organized political group in Egypt at the moment. The Muslim Brotherhood needs to be marginalized or there will be another Iran-type government.

[hippifried]

The Muslim Brotherhood is already marginalized. They're outlawed in Egypt. But then again, everybody else has been marginalized too. The reality is that we don't know who's organized. All we've ever known is who's in charge & who the bad guys are supposed to be. Everybody else has been ignored since Nasser.

As for aid: We've been shelling out since the early '70s. It wasn't a bribe to make peace with Israel. It was a bribe to shift influence to the US instead of the Soviets. The peace process started right after the Yom Kippur war, while Nixon was in office. The term "shuttle diplomacy" was coined while Kissenger was brokering the deal to have Sadat visit Israel. Camp David was just the final treaty.

[russtafa]

The international media are now being targeted by the secret police

[NYBURBS]

It was one of few achievements during his presidency. I really don't think we can't rely on an Egyptian government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is now saying that the peace treaty needs to be rewritten when a provisional government is formed (Brotherhood included in the provisional government). That will open a big can of worms. The only reason I am paying attention to them is that they are the largest organized political group in Egypt at the moment. The Muslim Brotherhood needs to be marginalized or there will be another Iran-type government.

It's not our place to marginalize political parties in other countries, and it's that sort of policy attitude that contributes to the rabid dislike many around the world have for the US. The Egyptians have always been more nationalistic than Islamic in their political discourse, and we'd do well to let them sort out their own internal political situation.

[Stavros]

Mubarak's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is not so straightforward as people think, their radicalism was to a degree diluted because the Egyptan government took a lenient view of more radical judges imposing the kinds of sentences on secular Egyptians which would have been unthinkable when Nasser was around -indeed it was Nasser who took the most violent attitude to the Brotherhood (hanging Syed Qutb for example); Mubarak thought he could give them enough rope to hang themselves, instead he made some attitudes acceptable, and this has made life harder for Copts and Secular Arabs in Egypt. People fear the Brotherhood but these days they are not so different from the British Labour Party in the 1980s or even 90s, the bottom line is there to see for all: jobs, freedom from oppression, and more social and economic justice. The Brotherhood will score in the rural areas I think, not as well in the cities, let's welcome this change and hope it doesnt descend into violence and chaos.

[Prospero]

Surely the Brotherhood have been behind recent attacks on Copts? Not an encouraging sign.

[Stavros]

Surely the Brotherhood have been behind recent attacks on Copts? Not an encouraging sign.

Difficult to say as officially its a banned organization and there are other groups some of whom use violence to intimidate or kill Copts and also other Muslims; it comes down to whether or not these smaller -possibly better oranised- groups will try and derail the 'transition' to democracy or whether they will have to live on its margins albeit trying to cause havoc -I guess this is the kind of instability that people are afraid of -but right now the alternative is state oppression, and that could also play into the hands of more radical Muslims...maybe this volatility with no apparent leadership is also what makes the Egyptian situation so interesting to outsiders. I'm still in an optimistic frame of mind, maybe because its the weekend (!).

[Ben]

Mubarak family fortune could reach $70bn, say experts

President Hosni Mubarak (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/hosni-mubarak)'s family fortune could be as much as $70bn (£43.5bn) according to analysis by Middle East (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middleeast) experts, with much of his wealth in British and Swiss banks or tied up in real estate in London, New York, Los Angeles and along expensive tracts of the Red Sea coast.


After 30 years as president and many more as a senior military official, Mubarak has had access to investment deals that have generated hundreds of millions of pounds in profits. Most of those gains have been taken offshore and deposited in secret bank accounts or invested in upmarket homes and hotels.
According to a report last year in the Arabic newspaper Al Khabar, Mubarak has properties in Manhattan and exclusive Beverly Hills addresses on Rodeo Drive.
His sons, Gamal and Alaa, are also billionaires. A protest outside Gamal's ostentatious home at 28 Wilton Place in Belgravia, central London, highlighted the family's appetite for western trophy assets.
Amaney Jamal, a political science professor at Princeton University, said the estimate of $40bn-70bn was comparable with the vast wealth of leaders in other Gulf countries.
"The business ventures from his military and government service accumulated to his personal wealth," she told ABC news. "There was a lot of corruption in this regime and stifling of public resources for personal gain.
"This is the pattern of other Middle Eastern dictators so their wealth will not be taken during a transition. These leaders plan on this."
Al Khabar said it understood the Mubaraks kept much of their wealth offshore in the Swiss bank UBS and the Bank of Scotland, part of Lloyds Banking Group, although this information could be at least 10 years old.
There are only sketchy details of exactly where the Mubaraks have generated their wealth and its final destination.
Christopher Davidson, professor of Middle East politics at Durham University, said Mubarak, his wife, Suzanne, and two sons were able to accumulate wealth through a number of business partnerships with foreign investors and companies, dating back to when he was in the military and in a position to benefit from corporate corruption.
He said most Gulf states required foreigners give a local business partner a 51% stake in start-up ventures. In Egypt (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/egypt), the figure is commonly nearer 20%, but still gives politicians and close allies in the military a source of huge profits with no initial outlay and little risk.
"Almost every project needs a sponsor and Mubarak was well-placed to take advantage of any deals on offer," he said.
"Much of his money is in Swiss bank accounts and London property. These are the favourites of Middle Eastern leaders and there is no reason to think Mubarak is any different. Gamal's Wilton Place home is likely to be the tip of the iceberg."
Al Khabar named a series of major western companies that, partnered with the Mubarak family, generated an estimated $15m a year in profits.
Aladdin Elaasar, author of The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Obama Age, said the Mubaraks own several residences in Egypt, some inherited from previous presidents and the monarchy, and others the president has commissioned.
Hotels and land around the Sharm el-Sheikh tourist resort are also a source of Mubarak family wealth.

[Ben]

Libya:

YouTube - Libya Gaddafi Protest Deaths Exiled Libyans Claim Up To 120 Killed In Three Days (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRLdXTcdKgA)

Algeria:

YouTube - Protesters brave riot police in Algerian capital (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwlws2q1gLg)

[onmyknees]

It's not our place to marginalize political parties in other countries, and it's that sort of policy attitude that contributes to the rabid dislike many around the world have for the US. The Egyptians have always been more nationalistic than Islamic in their political discourse, and we'd do well to let them sort out their own internal political situation.

True that ..........to a point. But certainly we could/should be working through back channels. I'm not suggesting we impose our will, but the thought or a more Islamic fundemental friendly government in Egypt would be ominous. Need proof? Look at what havoc Iran has reeked on us and the rest of the world in the past 25 years, with no end in sight.

Will this end peacefully and result in some sort of demacracy in Egypt? I'm not hopeful after all, this is the middle east and things never end well there.

[russtafa]

These riots seem to be spreading in the middle east

[hippifried]

I don't think any of this has anything to do with religion whatsoever. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with political positioning or posturing on the world stage either. It seems to be exactly as it appears. People, en masse, sick & tired of being stuck a century behind the rest of the world.

[Ben]

Egypt - Will there be a revolution? - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6a_57qF0E4)

[Ben]

Hundred Killed by Egyptian Military Regime (Disturbing Image Warning) - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSSHZVN1PQU)