Apocalypse soon?

[thx1138]

Betelgeuse and/or Antares set to go supernova hitting the earth with a tsunami of lethal radiation? :( http://www.rense.com/general86/medb.htm

[trish]

According to

http://www.earthsky.org/radioshows/48792/betelgeuse-could-become-supernova

"...if Betelgeuse became a supernova, it would be too far away to do us any actual harm."

[jaycanuck]

cool. get your Coppertone out kiddies. lol

[SarahG]

At least it will be quick when the sun finally goes.

[rockabilly]

Hello mutated superpowers . ... or maybe we will sprout our own Quattos " QUAAAIDDDD! Start the reactor. " :lol:

[thx1138]

Not that there's anything anyone can do about it. I guess the first indication something's wrong is loss of sattelite communication when they're hit by a wave of charged particles - protons, electrons, muons. Auroras will probably be visible right down to the equator. A week later people will start checking into hospitals when their hair starts falling out.

[trish]

Not that there's anything anyone can do about it. I guess the first indication something's wrong is loss of sattelite communication when they're hit by a wave of charged particles - protons, electrons, muons. Auroras will probably be visible right down to the equator. A week later people will start checking into hospitals when their hair starts falling out.

Actually the first thing that will hit is the electromagnetic radiation traveling at the speed of light. There will be no warning; the radiation outpaces everything in the universe. If there are any survivors they will probably have lost all remnants of science and technology. That’s unfortunate, because they won’t remember what we now know: that the wave of energetic protons and other particulate radiation hurtled our way by the supernova is traveling at about 1/10th the speed of light, which means it won’t arrive until about 5700 years after that first wave of EM radiation that burnt us to a crisp.

Not to fear though.
I did a little back of the envelop calculation this afternoon. The luminosity of the Sun is about 3.86 x 10^17 Giga-Watts; that’s 386 000 000 000 000 000 giga-watts of power. But the Sun is about 93 million miles away. So by the time it gets here, all that radiant power has been spread out over a sphere of radius 93 million miles; i.e. over an area of 1.08 x 10^17 square miles. This means that only about 3.57 giga-watts of sunlight strike each square mile of the Earth’s surface at the peak of day. That’s only about 1400 watts per square meter. That's why using solar energy to power city requires a vast acreage of photocells.

Now a supernova can be 5 billion times as luminous as the Sun. So when Betelgeuse supernovas it could reach a radiant power output of 5 billion suns; i.e. roughly 2 x 10^27 giga-watts of powers. But by the time it reaches Earth, which is 640 light years away, it’s spread out over a sphere of area 1.8 x 10^32 square miles! The ratio is 0.00001 giga-watts per square mile or 0.004 watts per square meter. That’s six orders of magnitude less than the radiant power of sunlight on Earth.

One major objection to this calculation is that the radiant energy isn’t distributed evenly over a spreading sphere. A significant portion of it streams out in high energy jets aligned with the magnetic “axis” of the collapsing star. Fortunately for us, we are not in line with that axis. This means we’ll probably get less energy flux than calculated above.

However, on a whim, I also considered the following fantasy scenario: what if ALL the mass of Betelgeuse was converted into light energy in just a matter of say a few hours? Being ten solar masses that would be 20 x 10^30 kilograms converted into energy. To find out how much energy just multiply by the speed of light squared. The result is 5 x 10^35 giga-watt-hours of energy. So if the conversion is completed in say five hours, that's 10^35 giga-watts of power. Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves. The good news is: if ALL the mass of Betelgeuse is converted into light energy, then there won't be any matter left to come hurtling towards us 5700 years later.

[trish]

sorry...triple post...that's a record!!!

[trish]

sorry...triple post...that's a record!!!

[Justawannabe]

I always love Trish's posts... the whole approach just makes me smile. Good mix of serious approach and slightly silly.

Thanks for the math, even if it does coast over my head a wee bit, some of my partners in crime loved it.

[phobun]

Get help.

[icarus2112]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

[blonde_sweetheart]

Ahhhh I want to study Chemistry! I find it so interesting 8-)

[SarahG]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

Are you kidding? 45spf sunscreen doesn't do the job NOW!

[BLKGSXR]

apocalypse my ass-Dude its like y2k all hype.

[icarus2112]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

Are you kidding? 45spf sunscreen doesn't do the job NOW!

Tell me about it I spend a few hours on a boat yesterday and today I cant put the top down on the Jeep because I dont want to feel the burn. I shouldnt complain, Seattle had such a late start at summer now we actually are having a long decent stretch of summer weather.

[trish]

Icarus...it'll melt your paraffin wings :)

[icarus2112]

Icarus...it'll melt your paraffin wings :)

already been melted Ive fallen so long ago :wink:

[El Nino]

Ahhhh I want to study Chemistry! I find it so interesting 8-)

Theoretical physics is wayyy more interesting, Sweetheart.

[SarahG]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

Are you kidding? 45spf sunscreen doesn't do the job NOW!

Tell me about it I spend a few hours on a boat yesterday and today I cant put the top down on the Jeep because I dont want to feel the burn. I shouldnt complain, Seattle had such a late start at summer now we actually are having a long decent stretch of summer weather.

Exactly! I have to break out the spf100+ just to get to my car from the front door if its near noon.

[BLKGSXR]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

Are you kidding? 45spf sunscreen doesn't do the job NOW!

Tell me about it I spend a few hours on a boat yesterday and today I cant put the top down on the Jeep because I dont want to feel the burn. I shouldnt complain, Seattle had such a late start at summer now we actually are having a long decent stretch of summer weather.

Exactly! I have to break out the spf100+ just to get to my car from the front door if its near noon.1000 you mean-

[SarahG]

Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves.


So your saying a 45 spf sunscreen wont quite do the job?

Are you kidding? 45spf sunscreen doesn't do the job NOW!

Tell me about it I spend a few hours on a boat yesterday and today I cant put the top down on the Jeep because I dont want to feel the burn. I shouldnt complain, Seattle had such a late start at summer now we actually are having a long decent stretch of summer weather.

Exactly! I have to break out the spf100+ just to get to my car from the front door if its near noon.1000 you mean-

ooo, are they making that now?

They must have finally started reading my letters.

[rockabilly]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:

[SarahG]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:

Using umbrellas for that can lead to misunderstandings though. You wouldn't think so, but you'd be surprised how many people see girls w/ umbrellas in the sun and go "she must think she's better than everyone else." :roll:

[BLKGSXR]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:not If I throw accelerant on it and ignite it :twisted:
Sarah is casper the pasty ghost 0_o

[SarahG]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:not If I throw accelerant on it and ignite it :twisted:
Sarah is casper the pasty ghost 0_o

Why would you do a thing like that?

[rockabilly]

Grrrr step back slowly

[BLKGSXR]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:not If I throw accelerant on it and ignite it :twisted:
Sarah is casper the pasty ghost 0_o

Why would you do a thing like that?to make you see the light-Lmfao- drinking Yak piss all day indoor is not healthy.

[SarahG]

You can stand under my umberella. :oops:not If I throw accelerant on it and ignite it :twisted:
Sarah is casper the pasty ghost 0_o

Why would you do a thing like that?to make you see the light-Lmfao- drinking Yak piss all day indoor is not healthy.

LOL, I set myself up for that one.

It really is healthy though, people may not understand it- but sunlight causes cancer and makes your skin age faster.

[barefootjoe69]

Not that there's anything anyone can do about it. I guess the first indication something's wrong is loss of sattelite communication when they're hit by a wave of charged particles - protons, electrons, muons. Auroras will probably be visible right down to the equator. A week later people will start checking into hospitals when their hair starts falling out.

Actually the first thing that will hit is the electromagnetic radiation traveling at the speed of light. There will be no warning; the radiation outpaces everything in the universe. If there are any survivors they will probably have lost all remnants of science and technology. That’s unfortunate, because they won’t remember what we now know: that the wave of energetic protons and other particulate radiation hurtled our way by the supernova is traveling at about 1/10th the speed of light, which means it won’t arrive until about 5700 years after that first wave of EM radiation that burnt us to a crisp.

Not to fear though.
I did a little back of the envelop calculation this afternoon. The luminosity of the Sun is about 3.86 x 10^17 Giga-Watts; that’s 386 000 000 000 000 000 giga-watts of power. But the Sun is about 93 million miles away. So by the time it gets here, all that radiant power has been spread out over a sphere of radius 93 million miles; i.e. over an area of 1.08 x 10^17 square miles. This means that only about 3.57 giga-watts of sunlight strike each square mile of the Earth’s surface at the peak of day. That’s only about 1400 watts per square meter. That's why using solar energy to power city requires a vast acreage of photocells.

Now a supernova can be 5 billion times as luminous as the Sun. So when Betelgeuse supernovas it could reach a radiant power output of 5 billion suns; i.e. roughly 2 x 10^27 giga-watts of powers. But by the time it reaches Earth, which is 640 light years away, it’s spread out over a sphere of area 1.8 x 10^32 square miles! The ratio is 0.00001 giga-watts per square mile or 0.004 watts per square meter. That’s six orders of magnitude less than the radiant power of sunlight on Earth.

One major objection to this calculation is that the radiant energy isn’t distributed evenly over a spreading sphere. A significant portion of it streams out in high energy jets aligned with the magnetic “axis” of the collapsing star. Fortunately for us, we are not in line with that axis. This means we’ll probably get less energy flux than calculated above.

However, on a whim, I also considered the following fantasy scenario: what if ALL the mass of Betelgeuse was converted into light energy in just a matter of say a few hours? Being ten solar masses that would be 20 x 10^30 kilograms converted into energy. To find out how much energy just multiply by the speed of light squared. The result is 5 x 10^35 giga-watt-hours of energy. So if the conversion is completed in say five hours, that's 10^35 giga-watts of power. Spread that out over a sphere of radius 640 light years, and you get 217000 watts per square meter. That’s 155 times the normal 1400 watts per square meter that we get from ordinary sunlight! Time to head for the caves. The good news is: if ALL the mass of Betelgeuse is converted into light energy, then there won't be any matter left to come hurtling towards us 5700 years later.

Yeh, What She said^^^

[rockabilly]

I avoid the sun , I'm 31and look 21.

[Felicia Katt]

did somebody think the recent end of the world movie Knowing was a documentary? LOL

FK

[pnwguy24]

Trish, that was hot. for realz. I dig a smart woman.

[Quiet Reflections]

Ahhhh I want to study Chemistry! I find it so interesting 8-)
You would love it. Getting a degree in chemistry was one of the best thing i have ever done.

[Deimos]

did somebody think the recent end of the world movie Knowing was a documentary? LOL

FKI was about to point that out but you beat me to it. lol

[thx1138]

http://www.astrobio.net/index.php?option=com_news&task=detail&id=1726

[thx1138]

However that was 6,500 l. y. away. And the progenitor star was a lot smaller than Betelgeuse : 4.6 ± 1.8 solar masses. When B. goes pop it's going to put on an incredible show.

[thx1138]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0J8srN24pSQ Of course there is no sound in space.

[hippifried]

Oh no! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!! :shock:

Wake me up when it's time to panic.

[thx1138]

from earth

[thx1138]

HippieFried = dead man walking, posting.

[trish]

Hi justwannabe, icarus, Felicia, pwnguy, thx, hippiefried et.al.

I know I already reached the saturation limit of posts with math. But there was just one more thing that I was curious about. If Betelgeuse goes supernova we already saw the wave of EM radiation would be nothing for us to worry about. It only amounts to 0.004 watts per square meter compared to sunlight which is in the neighborhood of 1400 watts per square meters. But what about that mass shell of high energy particles traveling at one-tenth the speed of light which will reach us 5700 years later? How much of a danger is that to future generations of Earthlings?

Let’s say half of the mass of Betelgeuse is ejected; i.e. 5 solar masses of matter. The ejecta can reach top speeds of one tenth the speed of light. Most of it will never achieve that speed. But in a worst case scenario, let’s say all the ejected matter has speeds between 0.09c and 0.11c where c is the speed of light. On average the speed is 0.1c. So the average kinetic energy of the ejected material is (1/2)(5 solar masses)(0.1c)^2 = 1.24 x 10^33 giga-watt-hours of energy. Spread out over a sphere of radius 640 light years we obtain an average of 2700 watt-hours per square meter here on Earth. The first of these particles (those traveling at 0.11c) will reach Earth 5818 years after Betelgeuse supernovas and the last particles (those traveling at 0.09c) will arrive 7111 years after the nova. So the 2700 watt-hours per square meter is spread out over 1293 years. Hence the energy flux of particulate radiation here on Earth due to the Betelgeuse supernova will average 0.0002 watts per square meter. Remember the radiant energy of the sun is around 1400 watts per square meter. Clearly future Earthling’s have little to fear from Betelgeuse.

This was a mere napkin calculation. We ignored many things. The ejected matter will actually have velocities ranging from 0 to c with peak in the distributed well below 0.1 c. The wave of ejected particles will lose energy pushing through the interstellar medium. A portion of the eject particles be lost in jets rather than being distributed evenly in an expanding spherical shell. The expulsion of material from the supernova itself is spread out over a period of time. Etc.

Okay, I'm done. Sorry.

[thx1138]

is the incoming gas will be slowed down by the outgoing solar wind. However there is a possibility the incoming material may perturb objects in the OORT cloud or even the asteroid belt - changing their orbits to such an extent they could plunge into the inner solar system colliding with earth eventually. We know what happened to the Yucatan 65 million years ago. :(

[thx1138]

Betelgeuse poles are probably rotating just as the earth's are. While they may not be perfectly alighned with earth now that doesn't necessarily mean that will be the case in the future. Since photons are electricly neutral they are not driven in a tight trajectory but can spread out somewhat by several degrees from the polar axis. Photo to follow.

[thx1138]

notice the shotgun type spread

[Janie2261]

Trish is correct. The real danger would be from a gamma ray burst, which would be directed from a star's axis. Although these two stars do not point their axes toward earth, there are some other suspects (star WR-104) for gamma ray bursts taht do point their axis toward earth, and GRB would -- its is speculated -- strip away the ozone layer in matter of seconds, perhaps leading to a mass extinction of life on earth.

[trish]

Thx proposes the incoming particles from Betelgeuse going supernova might send comets from the Oort cloud our way. One has to remember Betelgeuse is 640 lightyears away; a distance so large that both we and the Oort cloud are that same distance from Betelgeuse. So by the calculation in my last post, the matter shell rushing toward us from Betelgeuse at a presumed one tenth of the speed of light (just to take a worst case scenario) would have an energy flux of 0.0002 watts per square meter when it reaches the Oort cloud. Divide by its speed (0.1c) to obtain an order of magnitude estimate of the pressure it would exert on objects in the Oort cloud. The division yields 0.000 000 000 000 001 pounds per square inch!

Thx and Janie both point out the danger from the gamma radiation streaming from the jets that line up with the magnetic axis which is roughly parallel to the rotational axis of the core. Betelgeuse’s axis is not pointed at us at the moment, but as thx points out its wobbling. The wobbling behavior is due to the conservation of angular momentum within the constraints of a gravitational field. The precession is periodic and at no time in the predicted cycle will our Solar System be in line with the axis of Betelgeuse.

Janie mentions that there are some nearby stars which show signs of future collapse and which do have axis that pass through our Solar System. It was once thought WR-104 was such a star. However…

http://www.universetoday.com/2009/01/07/wr-104-wont-kill-us-after-all/

I don’t know any other candidates, but there may be some.

[hippifried]

So... Do you think we can come up with a big enough piece of tinfoil to shield the solar system in the next 6000+ years?

[trish]

Maybe we can make a big tinfoil sail and the whole solar system can just surf the incoming wind :)

[muhmuh]

how does one figure out the rotation axis of what seen from earth is little more than a dot btw?

[trish]

The first link is a nice lay article on the ISI observations of Betelgeuse determining its size and the fact that it appears to be shrinking. The article points out that Betelgeuse is one of the few stars the presents a disc to the Hubble Space Telescope.

http://www.physorg.com/news163823639.html

This next link is just to an abstract of a technical journal. But note the abstract reveals that ISI observations reveal that Betelgeuse is ellipsoidal. The symmetry of the oblate shape determines the axis.

http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1538-4357/670/1/L21

[Felicia Katt]

to paraphrase Shakespeare, the danger lies not with our stars but with ourselves. We are way more likely to cook the Earth through a runaway greenhouse effect, or through destroying the ozone layer, or disrupting the magnetic poles, or an escalating nuclear exchange, than we are to ever suffer some cosmic catastrophe. But people would rather worry about things beyond our control than try to control the things we should really be worried about.

FK

[rockabilly]

Good point , Could be worse ... Aliens could blow up the earth to create an intergalactic freeway. Just stick out your thumb and hitch a ride and dont forget your towel. ;)

[Justawannabe]

Hmmm... all for the tin foil system surfing answer to the issue should we find a star that makes it actually dangerous. This neighborhood is a bit boring anyway.

[muhmuh]

This neighborhood is a bit boring anyway.

so you dont like the relative peace far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the galaxy?

apart from the centre being a rather inhospitable place (most certainly of you consider a period of 4 billion years) i dont think finding that everything more or less spirals around us and being unable to see much of the rest of the universe would be good for us considering the human ego

[thx1138]

Ultraviolet gives view inside real "death star". http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080613134315.htm

[rockabilly]

Looking at the stars and nebulas and the vastness of space really shows how small we really are.

[trish]

One of things that strikes me is how young the universe is; somewhere between 13-14 billion years. The Earth is 4-5 billion years old. So the universe is less than five times older than Earth. When I was ten, my grandmother was fifty. Life evolved on Earth over 3 billion years ago. So it took less than 10 billion years for life to appear in the universe; probably less of we take into account there may have been prior life elsewhere .

But I’m also struck by how old the universe is. The radiant fire of it’s birth, known as the Cosmic Background Radiation (CBR), is now a cool three degrees above absolute zero. As the universe expands, neighbors become more distant, distant galaxy cluster[s] dim and disappear from view, the CBR grows even cooler. Five billion years from now the CBR may be too cool to detect and galax[y] clusters may be so distant from each other they’re invisible to one another. Intelligent creatures (if there are any then) may not have any of the evidence they need to reconstruct the history of the universe. I find that very sad. I want somehow to send our theories, speculations, records and data to a future. I would like to see our knowledge, if not ourselves, propagate far and wide.

I’m struck by the slowness of light. Because light is so slow, we can hardly go anywhere in a reasonable amount of time. We have to wait hundreds, thousands, millions, billions of years just to get news of distant events. The slowness of light makes it a very lonely universe. So far we’re the only life we know. Maybe we’re the only life we’ll ever know. If we do ever meet intelligent aliens, I would hope that a wise alien with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better understanding with her fellow beings than an Earthling who hasn't lived that life. On the other hand, if light were faster it would be harder to make black holes. Indeed light were too fast, they might not be any black holes in the universe. A lot of people wouldn’t find that a loss, but personally I think black holes are way cool.

Of course, like everyone, when I look up into the Milky Way at night, I wonder where the fuck are we and who the fuck are we. No expletive quite measures up to the depth of the questions.

[thx1138]

you are here:

[thx1138]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32204171/ns/technology_and_science-space/?GT1=43001

[hippifried]

you are here:Are you sure? & these pictures come from where?