Stavros
06-10-2024, 09:54 PM
Macron's party having done so poorly in the weekend's elections for the European Parliament, he has dissolved the Assemblée nationale and a fresh set of French Parliamentary elections will be held a month before the opening of the Paris Olympics, the two rounds taking place on June 30th and July 7th.
"“After this day, I cannot go on as though nothing has happened,”"
As Far Right Makes Gains in EU Contests, France’s Macron Calls for Snap Election | Truthout (https://truthout.org/articles/as-far-right-makes-gains-in-eu-contests-frances-macron-calls-for-snap-election/)
The gamble is intended to beg the question: do the French in so polarised a country want to put their trust in Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen, with a charismatic young man, Jordan Bardella as its President? They have done well in the European elections, and the Right did well across Europe, if not all of it (not much call for them in Sweden and Finland).
It is possible to see this as a vote of confidence in Macron, rather than a vote of confidence in France. In some respects, the French economy is not exactly on the ropes. Economic growth though static is forecast to improve over the next few years, and though unemployment is at 7% it is projected to fall.
Part of the problem inherent in France is the legacy of deals that have been made, so that, for example railway workers will be going on strike on the 20th for better pay and conditions, yet from earlier deals they can retire in their 50s and this has meant at least 10 years of salaries not contributing to a pension fund that is now in deficit. The retirement age in France, even though earlier than most in Europe is set to rise but will still mean French workers retiring two years or so before their cohort in other EU countries
Macron also has the problem that he is associated with two items of legislation, the Immigration Bill, and Pensions issue, both of them controversial. Following the passage of the Immigration Bill resignations led to the emergency of a new Prime Minister, also young (35) and gay, but unlike Bardella who is 29 and has a keen interest in social media, Gabriel Attal is a thinker, and maybe people feel too insular to have the popular touch.
The bigger question is what the Right means for France -in spite of past attacks on the EU, Le Pen has now made it clear Brexit has ruined any proposal to leave the EU, it is a non-starter. She talks about being 'Euro-sceptic' in terms of the politics of the EU rather than its existence. A revised Immigration Bill might be attempted to toughen up the law and limit entry into the country, and France might not be such an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine. Le Pen's party has received funds from Russia in the past (so has the Conservative Party in the UK) and her these days vague position is to call for a negotiated peace. On Gaza, where in the now distant past, Le Pen's Dad was a barely concealed anti-Semite, the daughter is more pro-Israel, though this is shaped as much by her anti-Islamism as anything else.
So a lot depends on whether or not Le Pen's party takes control of the Assemblée nationale, but that would result in a difficult co-habitation (which happened before with Chirac), and possibly a stalemate on the legislative agenda, but in any case if Rassemblement National are in the ascendancy, it is the Presidency they want as much as Parliament.
Some links
Has Emmanuel Macron broken France? – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-politics-pension-reform-elisabeth-borne/)
Economic forecast for France - European Commission (europa.eu) (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/france/economic-forecast-france_en)
Marine Le Pen: ‘If Russia wins the war, it will be catastrophic... if Ukraine wins, it will mean WWIII has been unleashed’ | International | EL PAÍS English (elpais.com) (https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-13/marine-le-pen-if-russia-wins-the-war-it-will-be-catastrophic-if-ukraine-wins-it-will-mean-wwiii-has-been-unleashed.html#)
Le Pen’s anti-Islamism and support of Israel seen as attempt to obscure antisemitic past | France | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/06/marine-le-pens-support-of-israel-seen-as-move-away-from-partys-antisemitic-past)
"“After this day, I cannot go on as though nothing has happened,”"
As Far Right Makes Gains in EU Contests, France’s Macron Calls for Snap Election | Truthout (https://truthout.org/articles/as-far-right-makes-gains-in-eu-contests-frances-macron-calls-for-snap-election/)
The gamble is intended to beg the question: do the French in so polarised a country want to put their trust in Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen, with a charismatic young man, Jordan Bardella as its President? They have done well in the European elections, and the Right did well across Europe, if not all of it (not much call for them in Sweden and Finland).
It is possible to see this as a vote of confidence in Macron, rather than a vote of confidence in France. In some respects, the French economy is not exactly on the ropes. Economic growth though static is forecast to improve over the next few years, and though unemployment is at 7% it is projected to fall.
Part of the problem inherent in France is the legacy of deals that have been made, so that, for example railway workers will be going on strike on the 20th for better pay and conditions, yet from earlier deals they can retire in their 50s and this has meant at least 10 years of salaries not contributing to a pension fund that is now in deficit. The retirement age in France, even though earlier than most in Europe is set to rise but will still mean French workers retiring two years or so before their cohort in other EU countries
Macron also has the problem that he is associated with two items of legislation, the Immigration Bill, and Pensions issue, both of them controversial. Following the passage of the Immigration Bill resignations led to the emergency of a new Prime Minister, also young (35) and gay, but unlike Bardella who is 29 and has a keen interest in social media, Gabriel Attal is a thinker, and maybe people feel too insular to have the popular touch.
The bigger question is what the Right means for France -in spite of past attacks on the EU, Le Pen has now made it clear Brexit has ruined any proposal to leave the EU, it is a non-starter. She talks about being 'Euro-sceptic' in terms of the politics of the EU rather than its existence. A revised Immigration Bill might be attempted to toughen up the law and limit entry into the country, and France might not be such an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine. Le Pen's party has received funds from Russia in the past (so has the Conservative Party in the UK) and her these days vague position is to call for a negotiated peace. On Gaza, where in the now distant past, Le Pen's Dad was a barely concealed anti-Semite, the daughter is more pro-Israel, though this is shaped as much by her anti-Islamism as anything else.
So a lot depends on whether or not Le Pen's party takes control of the Assemblée nationale, but that would result in a difficult co-habitation (which happened before with Chirac), and possibly a stalemate on the legislative agenda, but in any case if Rassemblement National are in the ascendancy, it is the Presidency they want as much as Parliament.
Some links
Has Emmanuel Macron broken France? – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-politics-pension-reform-elisabeth-borne/)
Economic forecast for France - European Commission (europa.eu) (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/france/economic-forecast-france_en)
Marine Le Pen: ‘If Russia wins the war, it will be catastrophic... if Ukraine wins, it will mean WWIII has been unleashed’ | International | EL PAÍS English (elpais.com) (https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-13/marine-le-pen-if-russia-wins-the-war-it-will-be-catastrophic-if-ukraine-wins-it-will-mean-wwiii-has-been-unleashed.html#)
Le Pen’s anti-Islamism and support of Israel seen as attempt to obscure antisemitic past | France | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/06/marine-le-pens-support-of-israel-seen-as-move-away-from-partys-antisemitic-past)